Apparently 6 platforms are considered
more F15's
-F18
-JSF
-F22===>??? Are they (Lockheed) even allowed to export it?
-Typhoon
-probably Rafale
What are your ideas as who will win this one and does the F22 indeed make a chance here.
If it does how about the price (now it's about 333 Mill$ per plane at 160-180 planned purchases) , will it go down (unitprice) as they will build more than planned for export?
How many would they need ,replacement on a 1 for 1 basis?
LMP737 From United States of America, joined May 2002, 4459 posts, RR: 27 Reply 1, posted (6 years 9 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 5226 times:
I'm not sure if the F-22 will be open to export. If it is Japan would be on the short list of countries allowed to buy it. As for replacement of the F-4 given the price and capability of the F-22 I don't think they would do a one for one replacement. Another thing, even though Japan licensed built the F-15 I doubt the US will allow anyone to license build the F-22. Just my humble opinion.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11025 posts, RR: 53 Reply 2, posted (6 years 9 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 5216 times:
It would make sense to buy 3-4 of the 6 airplanes listed. Buy some Mitsubishi F-15Js (33-42?), order 85-101 JSFs, and the remaining 37-42 F-22Js. This will give them 3-4 additional squadrons of F-15J and start 3-4 squadrons of F-22Js. It also gives them 8-10 squadrons of JSFs. This is all based on 10 airplane squadrons plus some attrition airplanes.
I don't see any reason why Japan, UK, Isreal, Tiawan, or ROK, cannot be allowed to order any Raptors. Most other countries should be kept from ordering it for a while, including Saudi Arabia, Germany, Canada, India, or Pakistan.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11025 posts, RR: 53 Reply 4, posted (6 years 9 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5187 times:
LMP737 From United States of America, joined May 2002, 4459 posts, RR: 27 Reply 5, posted (6 years 9 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 5188 times:
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2): I don't see any reason why Japan, UK, Isreal, Tiawan, or ROK, cannot be allowed to order any Raptors. Most other countries should be kept from ordering it for a while, including Saudi Arabia, Germany, Canada, India, or Pakistan.
For some reason I don't think that Tiawan will get the F-22. Given the possibility of reunification with China someday. I'm somewhat puzzled why you would put Canada and Germany on the list of countries that should not be allowed to buy the Raptor. While we have had differences with them, both countries are trusted allies. As for the other three counries I don't think you will see any of them operating the F-22.
When it comes to sales of the Raptor there are several categories countries fall in. Countries that cannot afford it, countries that can afford it but we won't sell it to, countries that can afford it and we will sell it to but won't order due to various reasons, and of course countries that can afford it and might just end up ordering it.
Germany is in the third category. Given the wealth of Germany they could conceivably buy it. However they have their plate full with the Typhoon and the A400M. No money left for the Raptor.
Lumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 23 Reply 6, posted (6 years 9 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 5164 times:
Just my $0.02 on countries shortlisted to buy: Australia, Singapore, Japan, UK. This aircraft would N-E-V-E-R be offered to the Taiwanese. (By the way, there are issues pending with equipment they pledged to order in the past, such as conventional subs and maritime patrol aircraft, that they haven't purchased yet). I can't see the UK or Australia taking the plunge because of the cost. They will be heavily involved in the JSF as well. Singapore is a long shot in the future, but the cost will militate against any immediate consideration. All depends on how they're getting along with the neighbors in the region. Japan, given concerns with China and North Korea, is the most likely candidate for the 1st overseas sale. Usually the Japanese like to extract a license production agreement. They might be willing to waive it in this case given the trade imbalance and the killer technology.
I don't think any of the NATO countries will ever fly this aircraft due to it's cost, not politics. Politics change, prices go up!
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
MissedApproach From Canada, joined Oct 2004, 711 posts, RR: 2 Reply 7, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 5126 times:
Australia, the UK & Canada are already in on the JSF program. The UK is...I forget the term, but they've paid enough development money that they get a say in the performance criteria. To be honest I think Canada will end up walking away from the JSF (like they did the Tornado). I really don't see anyone going for the F-22 seriously, due to costs. I can't think of any nation willing to allocate the funds needed to buy a useful number of them.
Lumberton From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 4708 posts, RR: 23 Reply 8, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 5115 times:
Quoting MissedApproach (Reply 7): Australia, the UK & Canada are already in on the JSF program.
Correct, MissedApproach. Poor wording on my part. I know there are several other countries as well. Frankly, the cost of this program has given many in Congress pause and the number to be purchased is still up in the air. I have no doubt that some will be bought. I still think Japan is a good candidate, whether or not they buy in quantity is another question.
Regards,
"When all is said and done, more will be said than done".
LMP737 From United States of America, joined May 2002, 4459 posts, RR: 27 Reply 9, posted (6 years 9 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 5087 times:
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 4): No, I don't think the current Bush Administration, or a new President of the US will include these countries (or others) for political reasons.
I'm really at a loss as to what those political reasons would be. Not that it really matters. As I pointed out before Germany has their hands full with the Typhoon and the A400M. Canada would be hard pressed to justify the expense of the F-22.
F4N From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 10, posted (6 years 9 months 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 4979 times:
To all:
I think when debating whether or not a particular nation would be interested in F22, one has to consider their particular military requirements as well as their ability to purchase. Germany, for example, certainly could buy the a/c and as a NATO ally, probably be allowed to. However, given what Raptor was designed to do, does Germany need it? I think not. They are commited to Typhoon and will probably not fly another combat type in this generation of fighters.
Ditto for Canada. Given the size of their AF and the budgetery leash their politicians keep them on, the CAF undoubtedly needs to get the most bang for its' buck. JSF presents them with far more credible options/numbers than would F22.
I think Australia and Japan represent the most realistic customers for F22. Australia has lots of area to cover and potentially, military concerns on its' northern border. Let's face it; the area which will see the proliferation of military capability in the near to medium term is the far east.
I suspect that the Air Staffs of both countries are more than aware of this and
will purchase equipment accordingly. Neither will "buy down" from the Flanker series of a/c which are now in widespread service throughout Asia.
DL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11372 posts, RR: 88 Reply 11, posted (6 years 9 months 1 day ago) and read 4971 times:
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2): Buy some Mitsubishi F-15Js (33-42?), order 85-101 JSFs, and the remaining 37-42 F-22Js.
I'd have to disagree on the F-15s. They don't need any more. Their funds would be best spent on all F-22's or possibly a combination of F-22/F-35's as they are procuring the F-2 to replace the F-1's and F-4's. F-22's would enable them to defend their territory very efficiently with fewer aircraft than needed with F-15's, and the F-35's would allow them to supplement the attack aircraft with a true dual role aircraft. That said, they could argue that the F-2 will meet their needs and they could concentrate on the F-22.
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2): I don't see any reason why Japan, UK, Isreal, Tiawan, or ROK, cannot be allowed to order any Raptors.
I'd have to say that there are some serious political issues with the F-22 going to ROC, as well as affordability issues. ROC is spending a good deal of money on modernizing the rest of their forces and the airforce may be low on the totem pole for new weapons until the navy gets up to speed.
ROK, on the other hand, is now buying a potful of F-15's and does not really need the F-22's. I could see them being players on the F-35 as they replace their F-4's and F-5's. They don't have enough F-16's to do the trick. Of course they could buy the F-22 just to have a couple of squadrons, but they are really expensive.
Why would you include these 2 nations in your list???
I think that if either one of these countries said they wanted the F-22 they could buy them......no sweat. They are still allies, and partners in NATO.
Quoting F4N (Reply 10): think Australia and Japan represent the most realistic customers for F22. Australia has lots of area to cover and potentially, military concerns on its' northern border. Let's face it; the area which will see the proliferation of military capability in the near to medium term is the far east.
Australia might be a player for 25 or so FB-22s to replace their F-111s, but they aren't in a position to buy enough to meet their air defence needs.
GDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 12359 posts, RR: 83 Reply 12, posted (6 years 9 months 4 hours ago) and read 4917 times:
I cannot see any of those nations buying F-22, except of maybe Israel and Japan, it's just too expensive to buy in each case a realistic number.
Typhoon nations will have all the Air to Air they need, especially with the Meteor AAM, they also do not see Air to Air right now as the biggest priority, hence the question marks politically in buying new aircraft in the first place, of any type.
Despite the developing multi role capabilities of Typhoon and Rafale, they are, however unfairly, criticized for being 'Cold War' and only good for engaging a mythical enemies non existent air force.
You've had some of that in the US too, as an attack on the high cost of the F-22, it might not be right (who can say what the Air to Air threat will be in 20-35 years time), but it's a fact of life for various Ministries Of Defence.
The only FMS sale I can see of F-22 is to Israel, buttressed by US aid, (otherwise totally unaffordable for them), if this was the case then the whole idea of restricting US sales due to security concerns, will be seen as a joke.
Remember those Israeli spy rings in the US?
All that arms trade with China, way beyond what the EU even recently considered, (something forgotten it seems by many US politicians and commentators), unless of course Israel always gets a pass.
Back to the topic, (eventually!), Japan I'd suspect will eventually be a F-35 customer, with license production.
The ties are strong to US industry with military aircraft.
A JASDF F-35A version, won't be an ideal F-15J replacement, if a significant rise in tension in the region became a fact of life, Japan might buy some F-22 (30-40), to replace the F-15J at the upper end of the envelope, but still too expensive as a direct F-15J replacement.
But Japanese industry might push hard for an upgraded F-2.
Atmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 44 Reply 13, posted (6 years 9 months 2 hours ago) and read 4891 times:
It isn't the administration that would have the strongest objection to F-22 exports, but some in the Pentagon and in Congress. The history of surreptitious technology transfer by acquirees of US defense technology to other countries which the US did not want to receive said technology has caused concern in some quarters.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
Ozair From UK - England, joined Jan 2005, 578 posts, RR: 0 Reply 14, posted (6 years 8 months 4 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 4921 times:
Quoting DL021 (Reply 11): Australia might be a player for 25 or so FB-22s to replace their F-111s, but they aren't in a position to buy enough to meet their air defence needs.
Sadly I must agree, no amount of political pressure could convince the Aussie government to purchase the F-22 over the JSF. Even a FB-22 is a far reach. I guess it all depends on the state of relations with China over the next 10 years and even that is no guarantee. We have a terrible history of weapons procurement, too little too late.
How long will the F-22 production line stay open. If the USAF get all the aircraft they desire (about 280 I think) will the line be open much past 2011 anyway?
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