MadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10243 posts, RR: 40 Posted (5 years 3 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2250 times:
Asteroid 2007 TU24, discovered by the Catalina Sky Survey on October 11, 2007 will closely approach the Earth to within 1.4 lunar distances (334,000 miles) on 2008 Jan. 29 08:33 UT. This object, between 150 and 600 meters in diameter, will reach an approximate apparent magnitude 10.3 on Jan. 29-30 before quickly becoming fainter as it moves further from Earth. For a brief time the asteroid will be observable in dark and clear skies with amateur telescopes of 3 inch apertures or larger.
I will play the devil's advocate: is there any possitility that this asteroid might deviate from its path and hit the earth?
Do these near-passing asteroids have any effect on the earth's weather ?
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11708 posts, RR: 52 Reply 1, posted (5 years 3 months 4 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2244 times:
Quoting MadameConcorde (Thread starter): is there any possitility that this asteroid might deviate from its path and hit the earth?
No. Once asteroids or comets have been observed for a few days, an orbital track (around the Sun) is easily predicted. These predictions take into account the gravity of the Moons and Planets it passes.
While a 600m sized astroid can do significant damage, if it hits Earth, it is not big enough to wipe out the population. It may destroy a small city of about 10km (6.2 square miles) in size.
ArniePie From Belgium, joined Aug 2005, 1265 posts, RR: 1 Reply 2, posted (5 years 3 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2237 times:
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 1): While a 600m sized astroid can do significant damage, if it hits Earth, it is not big enough to wipe out the population. It may destroy a small city of about 10km (6.2 square miles) in size.
It's true that a 600m object will not completely wipe out humanity but it will most certainly destroy far more than just a small city, more like a small country or a small state (think a 100 km radius in which there will be heavy damage).
The impact force will be something like +/- the equivalent of 6000 Megaton of TNT, that is about 300.000 Hiroshima bombs and will create a crater larger than the Arizona impact crater.
Thorny From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (5 years 3 months 4 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2156 times:
Quoting MadameConcorde (Thread starter): I will play the devil's advocate: is there any possitility that this asteroid might deviate from its path and hit the earth?
No. If the "miss distance" were much smaller (5,000 miles or so), then there would be cause for worry. But this asteroid will pass at a greater distance than the moon. The inner solar system is very well mapped and understood, and there is no "unexpected phenomenon" that could cause it to alter trajectory that radically.
Quoting ArniePie (Reply 2): It's true that a 600m object will not completely wipe out humanity but it will most certainly destroy far more than just a small city, more like a small country or a small state (think a 100 km radius in which there will be heavy damage).
There is still a 75% chance of an impact being at sea, and of the 25% of the Earth that is land, a large percentage is still sparsely populated (Tunguska today is little different than in 1908). It is vanishingly unlikely that an impact will strike Boston, Beijing, or Brussels. Odds are an impact of this size will result in a tsunami like the one in 2004, or volcano-like atmospheric phenomenon (such as Krakatoa or Pinatubo.) Hopefully, we'd have enough notice to evacuate the coasts prior to the impact in tsunami-susceptible regions. We might have another "year without a summer" as in 1816, but we are somewhat better able to handle such an event today.
MCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (5 years 3 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2080 times:
Quoting ArniePie (Reply 2): It's true that a 600m object will not completely wipe out humanity but it will most certainly destroy far more than just a small city, more like a small country or a small state (think a 100 km radius in which there will be heavy damage).
The impact force will be something like +/- the equivalent of 6000 Megaton of TNT, that is about 300.000 Hiroshima bombs and will create a crater larger than the Arizona impact crater.
The one that created this...
...is estimated at only 50m and look what it did. The explosion was around 3MT and caused havoc on the entire region. 600m wouldn't wipe out the world, but it would have a worldwide impact and could signicantly change civilization as we know it. I was fortunate to visit Barringer Crater in 2004, what an awesome sight! It' s amazing to stand on the rim and think about what happened there just 50,000 years ago. That's just a blink of the eye in Earth time.
Quoting MCIGuy (Reply 7): is estimated at only 50m and look what it did. The explosion was around 3MT and caused havoc on the entire region
Just to give an example as to what the site says about the impact of a 50m object (was an iron type asteroid IIRC) with standard speed (17 km/s) under the most likely angle (45°) at a distance of 100km :
Your Inputs:
Distance from Impact: 100.00 km = 62.10 miles
Projectile Diameter: 50.00 m = 164.00 ft = 0.03 miles
Projectile Density: 8000 kg/m3
Impact Velocity: 17.00 km/s = 10.56 miles/s
Impact Angle: 45 degrees
Target Density: 2500 kg/m3
Target Type: Sedimentary Rock
Energy:
Energy before atmospheric entry: 7.57 x 1016 Joules = 1.81 x 101 MegaTons TNT
The average interval between impacts of this size somewhere on Earth during the last 4 billion years is 1.0 x 103years
Atmospheric Entry:
The projectile begins to breakup at an altitude of 14100 meters = 46200 ft
The projectile reaches the ground in a broken condition. The mass of projectile strikes the surface at velocity 12.7 km/s = 7.9 miles/s
The impact energy is 4.23 x 1016 Joules = 1.01 x 10MegaTons.
The broken projectile fragments strike the ground in an ellipse of dimension 0.305 km by 0.215 km
Major Global Changes:
The Earth is not strongly disturbed by the impact and loses negligible mass.
The impact does not make a noticeable change in the Earth's rotation period or the tilt of its axis.
The impact does not shift the Earth's orbit noticeably.
Crater Dimensions:
What does this mean?
Crater shape is normal in spite of atmospheric crushing; fragments are not significantly dispersed.
Transient Crater Diameter: 1.25 km = 0.775 miles
Transient Crater Depth: 0.441 km = 0.274 miles
Final Crater Diameter: 1.56 km = 0.969 miles
Final Crater Depth: 0.333 km = 0.207 miles
The crater formed is a simple crater
The floor of the crater is underlain by a lens of broken rock debris (breccia) with a maximum thickness of 154 m = 506 ft.
The volume of the target melted or vaporized is 266000 m3 = 9.4e+06 feet3
Roughly half the melt remains in the crater
Thermal Radiation:
What does this mean?
At this impact velocity ( < 15 km/s), little vaporization occurs; no fireball is created, therefore, there is no thermal radiation damage.
Seismic Effects:
What does this mean?
The major seismic shaking will arrive at approximately 20 seconds.
Richter Scale Magnitude: 5.3
Mercalli Scale Intensity at a distance of 100 km:
III. Felt quite noticeably by persons indoors, especially on upper floors of buildings. Many people do not recognize it as an earthquake. Standing motor cars may rock slightly. Vibrations similar to the passing of a truck.
IV. Felt indoors by many, outdoors by few during the day. At night, some awakened. Dishes, windows, doors disturbed; walls make cracking sound. Sensation like heavy truck striking building. Standing motor cars rocked noticeably.
Ejecta:
What does this mean?
Most ejecta is blocked by Earth's atmosphere
Air Blast:
What does this mean?
The air blast will arrive at approximately 303 seconds.
Peak Overpressure: 1270 Pa = 0.0127 bars = 0.181 psi
Max wind velocity: 2.98 m/s = 6.67 mph
Sound Intensity: 62 dB (Loud as heavy traffic)
MadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10243 posts, RR: 40 Reply 9, posted (5 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1777 times:
There is talk about a new asteroid, I think the name is 2008 BC15. Has this one already gone past the Earth?
Can "near earth" passing asteroids have any effect on our weather?
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
MCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (5 years 3 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1762 times:
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 9): There is talk about a new asteroid, I think the name is 2008 BC15. Has this one already gone past the Earth?
Can "near earth" passing asteroids have any effect on our weather?
No, but I suppose they could have a minimal effect on tides, as in, barely measurable.
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