Highlander0 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2007, 165 posts, RR: 0 Posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8702 times:
link
So Columbia struck at FARC targets in Ecuador.
Chavez has said if anything like that were to happen in Venezuela, he would take it as an act of war.
So apparently tanks have been sent to the boarder. link 2
Can anyone see the possiblity of this blowing up? If so (lets hope no), who could they see 'winning' a conflict.
Flyin5glow From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 66 posts, RR: 0 Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 8690 times:
This is a very serious matter. Now president Chavez is more talk and less action, nonetheless capable of declaring war on Colombia as he is the commander in chief of Venezuela. However I think that the Colombian president will take the necessary precautions as not to provoke Chavez. And in the worse case scenario that a war between those two countries it would be very unpopular for both. But at the end of the day Colombia will defeat Venezuela, first, because the Colombian military is always active and ready for battle, second, more and better military armament and third, because the US will back Colombia, the Bush administration are not friends with Chavez and they have supported Colombia's war on terror. Also in the case that the war would take place after the Bush administration whomever is the president in the US will surely back Colombia. I don't think the US-Venezuela relations will better not until Chavez leaves office.
Halls120 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8686 times:
Quoting Flyin5glow (Reply 1): However I think that the Colombian president will take the necessary precautions as not to provoke Chavez.
I agree. President Uribe is an exceptionally astute leader. That said, if the Colombians thought they could take out a FARC command echelon hiding in Venezuela, they'd do it in a skinny minute.
Quoting Flyin5glow (Reply 1): And in the worse case scenario that a war between those two countries it would be very unpopular for both. But at the end of the day Colombia will defeat Venezuela, first, because the Colombian military is always active and ready for battle, second, more and better military armament and third, because the US will back Colombia, the Bush administration are not friends with Chavez and they have supported Colombia's war on terror.
The Colombian military is very capable, and as you note, is kept at a high operational level. Their Air Force desperately needs modern aircraft, and the Navy is small, but very proficient. I've sailed with them, and they are excellent sailors with some (not enough) very capable ships.
Highlander0 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2007, 165 posts, RR: 0 Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 8659 times:
Thanks guys for the input.
I am aware of the difference in air power (ColOmbia has a handful of fighters- IAI Kfirs and Dassult Mirages vs a smattering of F-16s, Su-30s, F-5s and Dassult Mirage 50). But I take it, that would be reinforced by something floating off the coast?
Fumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 8576 times:
I kind of want to see the Flankers in action, but.....
If anything I think that this might unify Columbians more than split them. Columbians are very proud of their country and to threaten them with invasion is not a brilliant direction by this idiot.
Atmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 39 Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 8559 times:
Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 4):
If anything I think that this might unify Columbians more than split them. Columbians are very proud of their country and to threaten them with invasion is not a brilliant direction by this idiot.
I don't think Chavez is stupid enough to initiate an invasion. But I suspect he will ensure that FARC can jump in and out of Venezuelan territory into Columbia, which may just precipitate an incident.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
Wvsuperhornet From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 516 posts, RR: 0 Reply 6, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 8499 times:
The only thing chavez has over columbia is his modern airforce and if push comes to shove a couple of US carrier battle groups could neutralize those faily easy.
MCIGuy From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 1936 posts, RR: 0 Reply 7, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 8477 times:
Quoting Wvsuperhornet (Reply 6): The only thing chavez has over columbia is his modern airforce and if push comes to shove a couple of US carrier battle groups could neutralize those faily easy.
Or a two-ship B-2 package with 6 or 8 F-22s in tow. They could make sure the Flankers never leave the ground. "Hey, US, here's your excuse on a silver platter".
Ecuador has now recalled it's ambassador and is also sending troops to the Columbian border. Chavez says he'll back Ecuador whatever they decide to do. This could get ugly with a certain quickness.
CTR From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 303 posts, RR: 0 Reply 8, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 8278 times:
If Colombia's clams are true, this may be the beginning of the first war between S A countries in 80 years.
BHMBAGLOCK From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2698 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 8237 times:
Quoting CTR (Reply 8): If Colombia's clams are true, this may be the beginning of the first war between S A countries in 80 years.
Interesting, as I have a friend who's less than 50 years old who is a veteran of such a war. In fact, I believe that it was the third war of the twentieth century between Peru and Ecuador and the second falling in your 80 year timeline. Take a look at older maps and you'll see that
CTR From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 303 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 8176 times:
Quoting BHMBAGLOCK (Reply 9): Take a look at older maps and you'll see that There are other examples as well.
GUERRA DEL PACÍFICO (1879-83), conflict involving Chile, Bolivia, and Peru,
CHACO WAR (1928-1935) Bolivia against Paraguay
Ignoring minor border skirmishes and the Malvinas (Falklands) War since it was Argentina with GB. What war am I missing?
BHMBAGLOCK From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2698 posts, RR: 5 Reply 12, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 8053 times:
.....Although I don't know about their armies and navies.
If Tio Hugo would just stay out of the picture and not stoke the fire, chances are this can be resolved diplomatically, as the report said Pres Uribe phoned Pres Correa regarding the incident.
KC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 11711 posts, RR: 52 Reply 14, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 8000 times:
Atmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 39 Reply 15, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 7911 times:
Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 13):
If Tio Hugo would just stay out of the picture and not stoke the fire, chances are this can be resolved diplomatically, as the report said Pres Uribe phoned Pres Correa regarding the incident.
My guess is this is not going to be an easy thing to solve:
BOGOTA (Reuters) - Colombia said on Sunday documents found in a camp in Ecuador where Colombian troops killed a top guerrilla boss showed ties between the FARC rebels and Ecuadorean President Rafael Correa, including contacts about political proposals and local military commanders.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
BHMBAGLOCK From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2698 posts, RR: 5 Reply 16, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 7902 times:
Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 13): If Tio Hugo would just stay out of the picture and not stoke the fire, chances are this can be resolved diplomatically, as the report said Pres Uribe phoned Pres Correa regarding the incident.
Hugo wants to stir things up, whether he'll know when to stop is still unknown.
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 14): Perhaps they can "borrow" a few A-10s, or AH-64s?
If Hugo keeps stirring things up and the "smoking gun" is confirmed linking him to funding terrorism, it's likely that Colombia will suddenly have access to a much wider range of US armaments in the past. At the moment, it looks like they're headed for the same preferred shopping list as Israel.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 11956 posts, RR: 37 Reply 17, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 7903 times:
Interesting and rather worrying situation; on the one hand, obviously, any war is to be regretted , but in the case of Chavez, I can't help wondering if there are military planners in Washington who would just LOVE to see Venezuela attack Colombia (and would no doubt be pleased to provide some kind of provocation). Politically, Chavez also has a disadvantage in being CinC and generally in charge of everything; like Saddam (in this context), can he be seen to back down? As a "strongman", his domestic standing - already not terribly good - could be fatally tarnished (again something unlikely to be lost on US intelligence). If the US wanted to bring Chavez down (and I think most of us would agree they'd love to see that happen), this might present the best opportunity.
If it can be proven that FARC rebels have used bases in Venezuela to mount attacks on Colombian targets, isn't that as good as a declaration of war by Venezuela?
With regard to the respective air forces, I know that the FAV is quite powerful, with F-16s (does it have the Sukhois yet?), whereas the FAC has the older Mirages and Kfirs; presumably it has got some technical and strategic assistance from the Israelis in relation to the latter (which can't hurt!) ...
Mrocktor From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 1646 posts, RR: 51 Reply 18, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 7855 times:
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 5): But I suspect he will ensure that FARC can jump in and out of Venezuelan territory into Colombia
This is the status quo, it would not be a change. Ditto for Ecuador, and thus the attack.
Atmx2000 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 4576 posts, RR: 39 Reply 19, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 7828 times:
Quoting Mrocktor (Reply 18): This is the status quo, it would not be a change. Ditto for Ecuador, and thus the attack.
I meant the Venezuelan military is being sent to ensure that FARC can continue to do so and engage the Columbian military if they try to pursue FARC across the border or attack FARC encamped in Venezuela.
ConcordeBoy is a twin supremacist!! He supports quadicide!!
DEVILFISH From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4429 posts, RR: 1 Reply 20, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 7791 times:
Quoting Atmx2000 (Reply 15):
If Hugo keeps stirring things up and the "smoking gun" is confirmed linking him to funding terrorism, it's likely that Colombia will suddenly have access to a much wider range of US armaments in the past.
The US is inclined to see this settled through a diplomatic solution.....
US Appeals for Dialogue in Colombia-Ecuador Dispute
By David Gollust
State Department
03 March 2008
Quote: "The United States Monday appealed for a diplomatic solution of the dispute between Colombia and Ecuador spurred by Colombia's cross-border attack against FARC rebels inside Ecuador. The State Department called on Venezuela to stay out of the affair. VOA's David Gollust reports from the State Department.
State Department officials say they hope Colombia and Ecuador can resolve the dispute bilaterally or through the Organization of American States, the OAS, while saying there is no reason Venezuela should be involved militarily or in any other way."
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 17): If the US wanted to bring Chavez down (and I think most of us would agree they'd love to see that happen), this might present the best opportunity.
The State Department release clearly calls for sobriety, although the veiled warning to Venezuela cannot be mistaken.
BHMBAGLOCK From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 2698 posts, RR: 5 Reply 22, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 7771 times:
Quoting DEVILFISH (Reply 20): The State Department release clearly calls for sobriety, although the veiled warning to Venezuela cannot be mistaken.
I'd love to see a big FU to Hugo and Correa by pulling completely out of Manta and establishing a base somewhere around Santa Marta. It would also be a lot better location for drug interdiction missions for the most part. Correa talks big about getting us out but this base is a major economic stimulus for Ecuador.
Highlander0 From United Kingdom, joined Sep 2007, 165 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 7692 times:
So is there a chance this could go 'hot'? Or will diplomacy win?
I do sound like a warmongerer- not intentional!
SCENARIO-
It kicks off in the v. near future.
B-2s are grounded pending initial results of the crash.
So would the USAF just use the B-52 with ALCMs? Or maybe use a F-22 strike pacakage as mentioned earlier?
Fsnuffer From United States of America, joined Jun 2007, 229 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (5 years 2 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 7687 times:
B-2s are grounded pending initial results of the crash.
So would the USAF just use the B-52 with ALCMs? Or maybe use a F-22 strike pacakage as mentioned earlier?
I could see the CVG as the most sensible option
Neither. I don't see the US getting involved in this directly. While Hugo is a pain in the b*** and a blowhard he does not warrant military attention by the US. Also, by the US getting militarily involved it will allow Hugo to start beating his chest saying "see, see I was right the big bad US is out to get us". Finally, he does have the ability to turn off the oil which will rock the commodity markets and send oil to $150 a barrel. He will also be shooting himself in the foot because he badly needs our dollars but assuming Hugo will take the rational path is no longer certain. To make a short answer long, the US will low key this and wait for it to blow over.
25 RICARIZA: The F-16's of the FAV (AFAIK) are useless since the US refused to sell them the parts needed. That is why Hugo purchased the 24 SU-30s. FAC has old K
26 TheCol: That would be foolish move. You can also bet that China and Russia will be more than willing to back Comrade Hugo. Then the whole region will be forc
27 LMP737: Also the fleet of oil tankers Venezuela has is suited for short trips across the Gulf of Mexico. Not long oceanic voyages half way around the world.
28 MD11Engineer: Isn't Guyana (as a former British colony) a member of the Commonwealth? I'm quite sure that an open attack against Guyana would mean a visit by the R
29 TheCol: Because they want a piece of the pie as well.
30 Halls120: Yes, but there is a lot of indirect support we could give Colombia that Hugo would never see. He'd be an idiot to start a war with Colombia. Unless h
31 Atmx2000: You need to get some spies in there to take pictures of FARC and Venezuelan military playing kissy-kissy.
32 RICARIZA: Well, that is what the Colombian soldiers found in the dead killer's computer, which is currently in hands of the OAS (Organization of American State
33 BHMBAGLOCK: I believe you are correct with all of the above. NPR reported today that he actually had three laptops full of info. Apparently quite detailed and ex
34 Fsnuffer: If this is getting too far of the MilAv topic feel free to delete but if it is proven that Hugo is giving direct support to the FARC could he wind up
35 LMP737: Which pie is bigger, US pie or Hugo pie?
36 Atmx2000: You need more corroborating evidence because you know Hugo is going to claim it is a CIA plant.
37 Highlander0: So from the sounds of it, a conflict would be extremely bad for Venezuela- due to loss of trade etc. If a provocation were to lead to conflict, who w
38 Venus6971: With indirect help from US AEW assets in the area plus a total control of space for targeting and intel I give the FAC the edge, their equipment is n
39 DEVILFISH: There is this post from another thread..... F-16's For France? (by Acheron Feb 7 2008 in Military Aviation & Space Flight) View Large View MediumPhot
40 Bennett123: Not sure how US election time table will affect the situation. Also if Venezualan oilfield go up, what effect on Oil prices.
41 TheCol: A trade dispute wih China would not be in anybody's best interests. Besides, if the US decides to sell military goods to Colombia, China and Russia w
42 LMP737: The US already sells military equipment to Columbia.
46 LMP737: Give me a break already! I work nights at an airline which means my brain is mush half the time.
47 TheCol: If I remember correctly, both the US and Russia sell military hardware in the region. I also remember China entertaining that idea as well. Hopefully
48 LMP737: Personally I think this whole thing is going to blow over. I'm going to guess that other leaders in the region are on the phone to Hugo telling him t
49 DEVILFISH: Yes. Just like the Galeras and Tungurahua volcanoes.
50 RICARIZA: Well, everything is all patched up now... no more problems... the only problem is the one we have had for 40 years, keep fighting the FARC. By the way
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