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The End Of All US Illusions For Iraq: Civil War!?  
User currently offlineSabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 47
Posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 3425 times:

Blast after blast...

At least 60 people died in bombings in the Iraqi capital, Baghdad, on Tuesday alone.

In the bloodiest of the earlier attacks, 24 died when a bomber blew himself up near a petrol station in one of the Iraqi capital's Shia areas.

Five defence ministry workers died when their convoy was hit by a roadside bomb in eastern Baghdad.

Two British soldiers were killed and another was injured by a roadside bomb on the outskirts of Amara, in the south.

A US soldier was killed by small-arms fire in the west of Baghdad.

A government count of 379 dead and 458 wounded as of Tuesday afternoon was followed by news of at least 23 deaths in a blast at a Baghdad Shia mosque.

The unusual move for the Iraqi government to state death toll figures have been a direct response to a figure of 1,300 dead published by the Washington Post newspaper - a figure Iraqi officials deny.

The stream of attacks come on the waves of increased sectarian violence since the attack on the Shia shrine.

Decrying the upsurge in violence, President Bush said the perpetrators wanted to "destroy in order to create chaos".

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/middle_east/4761154.stm

Some questions:
Just when do you stop calling it 'order', and when does 'chaos' start?
When do you admit the country is in fact facing civil war?
When do you admit you've messed up?

50 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3411 times:

The use of the term "civil war" is incorrect. It would be a religous war. The US civil war was based upon supposedly "civil" issues such as state rights versus federalism as well as the whole slave thing. There is nothing civil about a religuous war. It is blind faith against blind faith. Only a strong hand will ultimately keep the two apart. If the US was to withdraw now, there would be extreme violence. I am not political, but historical, and I believe this with all of my knowledge and heart.

User currently offlineYOWza From Canada, joined Jul 2005, 4864 posts, RR: 15
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3409 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
When do you admit you've messed up?

I don't think the US has ever messed up, EVER. Big grin At least that's what many people on this forum have lead my innocent, fragile little mind to believe.

YOWza



12A whenever possible.
User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6686 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3404 times:

Did we (US/UK) mess up? Or was little or no attention paid to the possible ramifications of removing a powerful, if despised, political leader and leaving the field free for those with other agendas to carry them out?

We only have to look at what happened in Yugoslavia and Rwanda in very recent memory to see that different ethnic/religious groups in the same country can have very long memories about previous injustices and when the opportunity arises it all gets very bad indeed.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3401 times:

Quoting YOWza (Reply 2):

I don't think the US has ever messed up, EVER. Big grin At least that's what many people on this forum have lead my innocent, fragile little mind to believe.

It can be funny also, how the incorrect can judge the incorrect.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 3384 times:

Quoting YOWza (Reply 2):
that's what many people on this forum have lead my innocent, fragile little mind to believe.

The USA in Iraq from the beginning of its invasion supported religious leaders, a stronger role for religion in general, and a clear de-secularisation

Quoting Oly720man (Reply 3):
Did we (US/UK) mess up?

The USA dissolved the Socialist Ba'ath Party and the army, and therefore
A) weakened the secularist left wing of politics and B) created a security gap.
Neither the party nor the army were "creations" of Saddam, they just had been misused by him for his personal aims. It only would have been necessary to "clean" them of secret-service-agents and Saddam loyalists.


User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3378 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 5):
The USA in Iraq from the beginning of its invasion supported religious leaders, a stronger role for religion in general, and a clear de-secularisation

Come on are you that silly?

Stalin, Mao, Pol Pot, and Hitler. Weren't they secular? Of course, they were secular facist governments and not secular democracies like the United States. There is a huge difference. The other leaders were afraid of religion and the ways that it could raise solidarity against them in revolutionary movements. In Iraq, the division is religion. Yet the US hopes that the common denominator of Islam will be able to bring them together in the end. Get a clue!

Nobody is foolish enough to think that a government in the Middle East will not be Moslem. The most democratic government in the region (Turkey) is clearly not secular nor even fully democratic. It is obvious that they still find a way to maintain the common Islam quotient of anti-Zionist policies even while applying for the EU. Good luck you Euros! Smile

[Edited 2006-03-01 11:43:29]

User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3365 times:

Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 6):
that a government in the Middle East will not be Moslem. The most democratic government in the region (Turkey) is clearly not secular nor even fully democratic. It is obvious that they still find a way to maintain the common Islam quotient of anti-Zionist policies even while applying for the EU.

Turkey has a moderately fundamentalist Prime Minister in government but the country is secularist. Turkey btw is closely allied with Israel. Jordan and Egypt have peace-treaties with Israel. Some Arab countries have diplomatic or trade-mission-wise relations with Israel. Most Arab countries (noteable exception Saudi Arabia) have secular civil laws and NOT Sharia law. In Europe, there not only is Turkey but also Albania and Bosnia-Hercegovina with Muslim majority (Albania 90%). And the Kosovo-Territory also is Muslim. Morocco, Algeria, Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Lebanon, Syria and Jordan are right now implementing extensive bilateral association treaties with the E.U. .
-
No Sir, matters are NOT that "black&white" as you might imagine them to be.


User currently offlineCfalk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3364 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
Just when do you stop calling it 'order', and when does 'chaos' start?

Iraq is a big place, and most of it is relatively peaceful. If you look at TV camera coverage of the streets of Baghdad or elsewhere you see thousands of cars and people walking around. What are they doing? They are on their way to work, or are shopping. Life goes on. Out of 25 million inhabitants, 60 people killed, while tragic, hardly means that the whole place is in chaos. The US has about 60 murders per day, as well.

At a guess, I'd say as soon as you reach an average of a thousand or more deaths per day, then you have chaos.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
When do you admit the country is in fact facing civil war?

It is, and I don't remember anyone saying otherwise. Bush said it a couble of days ago. If the Sunnis and Shiites really decide to go after each other, you will have a civil war.

But apart from a few incidents, which intensified briefly a week or so ago, that has not happened (yet). They are still faced with civil war, but they aren't there yet, and it is up to the government and the religious leaders to maintain order.

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
When do you admit you've messed up?

Agreed, Iraq was messed up from the beginning, and the predominant part of the blame lies at the feet of the Bush administration and the CIA. But that does not mean you can just throw up your hands and say, "That's enough, we're leaving".


User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3361 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 7):
Turkey has a moderately fundamentalist Prime Minister in government but the country is secularist.

Come now, must I tell of the wars in the East?
..and what of your arguements concerning secularism?
Secularism and fanaticism are opponents in your arguement, yet history cleary shows that this is a generalization and not fact.

[Edited 2006-03-01 12:08:01]

User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3355 times:

odern Turkey's founder, Mustafa Kemal (better known as Atat�rk--"father of the Turks"), enacted a constitution 70 years ago which denied the existence of distinct cultural sub-groups in Turkey. As a result, any expression by the Kurds (as well as other minorities in Turkey) of unique ethnic identity has been harshly repressed. For example, until 1991, the use of the Kurdish language--although widespread--was illegal. To this day, any talk that hints of Kurdish nationalism is deemed separatism, and grounds for imprisonment.

So the famous Kemal, whom the airport is named after "father of Turks", denied them their language. This problem still exists today.

I suppose they are evil if they will not speak Turkish or Arabic.

http://www.fas.org/asmp/profiles/turkey_background_kurds.htm

Islamic imperialists.


User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 3355 times:

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 8):
Out of 25 million inhabitants, 60 people killed, while tragic, hardly means that the whole place is in chaos. The US has about 60 murders per day, as well.

In the US in 2001, for a population of approx 281million people, there were 16,037 murders, and yet 9/11 was significant*.

The same thing is happening in Iraq.

*Im not dissing 9/11, but its a good example of how events are not related. These killings are above and beyond the normal crime rate because they dont share the same motivation. The 60 killings that the thread starter highlights would cause public concerns in any country in the world, because they are outside the 'normal' crime rate.


User currently offlineWe're Nuts From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 5722 posts, RR: 20
Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 3351 times:

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 8):
Iraq is a big place, and most of it is relatively peaceful.

If square footage covered in blood is how you judge vacation spots, the Western Front would have looked pretty good too.



Dear moderators: No.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3330 times:

Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 9):
tell of the wars in the East?

you mean the Napoleonic invasion of Russia ? Hitler's invasion of Russia ? or the Russian-Japanese wars ? human history is full of wars in ALL regions

Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 9):
Secularism and fanaticism are opponents in your arguement

no, they are NOT. Nationalism is secular by definition and can be the basis for much fanatism. Religion can be come the basis for fanatism, just as any non-religious ideology. Fanatism results out of narrow-minded thinking.

Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 10):
Kemal, whom the airport is named after "father of Turks", denied them their language. This problem still exists today.

true, Mustafa Kemal Pasha established the Turkish Republic as a unitarian fully Turkish national country. The "Kurds" were regarded as "Mountain-Turks" and the father of a Turkish school-friend spoke about "those bandits in the East".

Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 10):
will not speak Turkish or Arabic.

No, Mustafa Kemal in the mid-20ies launched a through "De-Arabisation" campaign, starting with the change of writing but going on into vocabulary.


User currently offlineGreasespot From Canada, joined Apr 2004, 3078 posts, RR: 20
Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 3306 times:

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 8):
The US has about 60 murders per day, as well.

But the US does not have 60 murders all at once casued by an explosion in a major city...

AS much spin as they put on it Iraq is a mess. And will continue to be a mess no matter how many political photo ops GWB makes there.

GS



Sometimes all you can do is look them in the eye and ask " how much did your mom drink when she was pregnant with you?"
User currently offlineHalls120 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3301 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
When do you admit the country is in fact facing civil war?
When do you admit you've messed up?

Good question. Let's hope we don't follow the Belgian example and wait 40 years.

Quote:
Belgium faces up to its bloody past

Forty one years after the event, Belgium has finally apologised for its role in the murder of Patrice Lumumba, an icon of the Left and Africa's most promising post-colonial leader, writes Andrew Osborn

Friday February 8, 2002


He was shot by firing squad, dismembered and then dissolved in a vat of sulphuric acid, but the spirit of Patrice Lumumba could not be extinguished.
This week, forty one years later, Belgium, the former colonial power in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (later to be renamed Zaire, and then after the fall of Mobutu Sese Seko in 1997, the Democratic Republic of the Congo), apologised for its role in a political execution which ushered in 36 years of dictatorship under the tyrannical leadership of Mobutu Sese Seko.

Belgium may not have physically pulled the trigger, but it stood by and watched as others did, failed to protect Lumumba even though it knew he was in mortal danger, lent its military expertise and personnel to those who would murder him and then did its best to cover up what had happened.
That much has been established by a Belgian parliamentary inquiry which, after two years, has just wound up its work. No "smoking gun" was found but the panel did ascertain that Belgium bore "moral responsibility" for Lumumba's death.

This week's apology, proffered by Belgium's foreign minister Louis Michel, was cathartic and long-overdue.


User currently offlineFrequentflyer From United States of America, joined Jul 2005, 736 posts, RR: 3
Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3299 times:

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):
Just when do you stop calling it 'order', and when does 'chaos' start?

When do you have a sensible and thorough evaluation of the situation before calling the current one a civil war?

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):

When do you admit the country is in fact facing civil war?

See above

Quoting Sabenapilot (Thread starter):

When do you admit you've messed up?

When do you admit that having a brutal dictator in place before you did anything during 20-some years was worse than whats going on right now?



Take off and live
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3297 times:

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 15):
the Belgian example and wait 40 years

Well, as far as I know it, Belgium was behind State-President Kasavubu, while the USA were supporting General Mobutu . So that the White House might follow up now to say sorry .


User currently offlineGary2880 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3288 times:

Quoting Cfalk (Reply 8):
Out of 25 million inhabitants, 60 people killed



Quoting RichardPrice (Reply 11):
281million people, there were 16,037 murders

25 million people and the murders total in the area of 30,000... in relation to the total number of people to the number of murders. it is quite bad if you did want to compare the 2, which i dont.

i heard one of our military brasses on the radio the other day saying the british controlled area in the south the situation for our soldiers actually continues to get worse each day rather than better, and that cant but hurt the iraqi civilians also.


User currently offlineHalls120 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3283 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 17):
Quoting Halls120 (Reply 15):
the Belgian example and wait 40 years

Well, as far as I know it, Belgium was behind State-President Kasavubu, while the USA were supporting General Mobutu . So that the White House might follow up now to say sorry .

LOL, right. And we colonized Africa during the 20th century?


User currently offlineSlz396 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3278 times:

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 15):
Let's hope we don't follow the Belgian example and wait 40 years.

You probably think Belgians will be blindly patriotic and defend my country's actions in the Congo. Well, guess what? They won't! Belgium indeed has a very big moral responsibility in the execution of the first freely elected Congolese Prime Minister by not intervening to save him from certain death after the coup d'etat by Mobutu. Shame on all those (right wing) leaders of my country who deliberately turned a blind eye and a very big thumbs up for our liberal foreign minister Louis Michel to publicly admit the wrong-doing and apologize for it.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 17):
So the White House might follow up now to say sorry too.

Good suggestion!

After all, Lumumba was rendered over to the rebels (who 'surprise surprise' executed him) without any objections from Brussels, Paris or Washington because of his communist leaning nationalistic ideology, which was not very much liked by the former colonial powers on the continent nor by the USA who were afraid to see the huge and wealthy African country turn into another red zone on the world map.

Can you post us a link to any sort of public US apology too now, Halls120?
It might make much more interesting reading, since the exact same method of rendering unwanted detainees too certain less than democratic regimes to do the job for you is something still practiced by the USA today.

[Edited 2006-03-01 15:21:36]

User currently offlineRichardPrice From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 4 weeks ago) and read 3275 times:

Quoting Gary2880 (Reply 18):
25 million people and the murders total in the area of 30,000... in relation to the total number of people to the number of murders. it is quite bad if you did want to compare the 2, which i dont.

You make my point for me. The 'background murders', which would happen in any society, are hardly noticed and thus the 'US has 60 murders a day' statement by a previous poster is not a valid comparison because the 60 killings in the thread starter are NOT background killings, and they would be noticeable in ANY society.

Thats the point I was making with regard to 9/11. 16,000 murders in 2001, roughly the same each year since, and yet the 2,500 killings in 9/11 were hugely more significant than the 'background murders' that year.

It would be the same in any country - murder happens in every country but the British 7/7 was significant, the Madrid train bombings were significant while your average murder isnt significant.

Have a significant largescale killing each week and your society rapidly edges toward lawlessness as self protection takes precident over everything else.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 3255 times:

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 19):
LOL, right. And we colonized Africa during the 20th century?

no
--
the USA did their "conquest" by more modern methods


User currently offlineSlider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6785 posts, RR: 34
Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3229 times:

Iraq is an artificial construct anyhow, cobbled together by the British.

After deposing Saddam, the nation SHOULD HAVE been split up into the respective independent states as presently divided along religious and ethnic grounds, IMO.

You can't force them to be united. Let the Kurds be independent, the Sunnis and Shiites can have their own land as well. The practical considerations would have to be worked out, of course, but why should this revolt be surprising to anyone?

They're finally free TO act out. Under Saddam, they were all victims. Now they're empowered and emboldened.


User currently offlineSWISSER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 3229 times:

Quoting Halls120 (Reply 19):
LOL, right. And we colonized Africa during the 20th century?

Our kingdom colonised Congo, we don't elect our kings.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 20):
Quoting Halls120 (Reply 15):
Let's hope we don't follow the Belgian example and wait 40 years.

You probably think Belgians will be blindly patriotic and defend my country's actions in the Congo. Well, guess what? They won't! Belgium indeed has a very big moral responsibility in the execution of the first freely elected Congolese Prime Minister by not intervening to save him from certain death after the coup d'etat by Mobutu. Shame on all those (right wing) leaders of my country who deliberately turned a blind eye and a very big thumbs up for our liberal foreign minister Louis Michel to publicly admit the wrong-doing and apologize for it.

 bigthumbsup 
I will be very happy the time we could finally get rid of Leopolds hobby.

Quoting Slz396 (Reply 20):
Can you post us a link to any sort of public US apology too now, Halls120?
It might make much more interesting reading, since the exact same method of rendering unwanted detainees too certain less than democratic regimes to do the job for you is something still practiced by the USA today.

I' am very interested too is such a link.
I guess the seek for weapons of mass destruction to cover up operation oil wars of the Bonanza family on the wheel in the white house is still justified.


25 Post contains links ANCFlyer : Has The Dreaded Iraqi Civil War Started? (by Prebennorholm Feb 22 2006 in Non Aviation)
26 QR332 : Cfalk and other right wing nuts: Pathetic. Completley pathetic. The country is falling apart and the best you guys can come up with is "Gee, until a f
27 ME AVN FAN : A) Kurds : if they can form their independent state inside what is Iraq today, and form Kurdistan they will, earlier or later, then they will push to
28 Toulouse : Fumanchewd, sorry but I'd just like to take you up on one thing here. I'm a little bit baffled by your claim that if the US leaves and there is a war
29 Gunsontheroof : Bingo. Iraq has never been a democracy, and it never will be in its current state. Britain did a piss-poor job of defining the country's borders foll
30 ME AVN FAN : Have you seen the pictures (on CNN) of Iraqi tanks on the roads of Baghdad right these days, trying to restore order ? This means that there now are
31 Frequentflyer : Agreed And the best you can come up with yourself, what is it? Nostalgy for Saddam? By some standards this could be considered as whining. What's wro
32 CFCUQ : Don't forget that this "brutal dictator" was empowered and supported by the U.S. until 1981, when Saddam began digging his heels in and began to marc
33 ME AVN FAN : could be, but should NOT as it is NOT Nothing. And what is right with a country turning to a decent general for leadership ? Neither. But do not quit
34 Frequentflyer : Question of appreciation Better than undecent civilians. I'll grant you, there are many ways to address the current situation that's for sure. No the
35 Post contains images Halls120 : I think nothing of the sort. I just find it odd for someone to be challenging us to admit we were wrong when it took his country 40 years to make a s
36 Toulouse : Yep, but that's not happening in 2006.
37 SWISSER : Halls120, what exactly do you want to point out? That because europeans had colony's 100 years ago it is justified for your current administration to
38 Searpqx : Apples to oranges Charles and you know it. Leaving aside your implied acceptance of the death toll, the 60 people killed were in bombings alone, murd
39 Halls120 : Not at all. I'm just suggesting that people who live in glass houses - european colonizers - shouldn't be throwing stones at us. Thanks in large part
40 Post contains images SWISSER : That's somehow irrelevant, but throwing stones is defenitly not the case, It's more a wake up call, or an Executive officer giving alternatives to th
41 Gunsontheroof : I don't see the connection between that and what you quoted from my post...
42 Post contains links ME AVN FAN : Here some views of an Iraqi who has his Blog-site under www.raedinthemiddle.blogspot.com : ********************************************* Thursday, Mar
43 Toulouse : Thanks for that post Searpqx... I'm fully behind your reasoning. ME AVN FAN, very interesting post, thanks. Let's see how some of our fellow a.netter
44 Gary2880 : i dont think thats right 1 little bit, but if hes an iraqi and thats what he wants... his choice i guess. LOL! you have to laugh or you would cry rea
45 Halls120 : As I said in the post above, asking us legitimate questions about how we intend to resolve the Iraq mess is fair game. Asking us for an "apology" is
46 ME AVN FAN : Those "apologies" for things of history are b.s. anyway.
47 Post contains links Sabenapilot : The daily update on the mess in IRAQ form the BBC: Iraq is undergoing one of its worst periods of violence, with at least 18 people being killed in at
48 Slider : Absolutely on the money! Iraq should be split up. Or we're going to have to deal with this crap again at some point in the future...mark my words.
49 Post contains images Frequentflyer : Hey folks. Am preparing for an exam tomorrow, so not much time to spend here unfortunately Thanks however to AVN FAN for taking the tine to post the b
50 ME AVN FAN : chaos and lack of safety are a main problem in the Iraq of today, and Mr Jaafari is not looking to be the right man to bring matters under control
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