Texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4242 posts, RR: 53 Reply 1, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 1562 times:
Great, except where are we going to pick up seats in the House? Here in Texas, Democrats will gain at least 2 and up to 4 seats. I cannot see any in California being turned, Bernie Sanders (Socialist-VT) is leaving the House to run for Senate, and there just are not a whole lot of races out there where Democrats hold a strong advantage.
In the Senate, the Dems look to be able to hold onto seats in MN and MD, while possibly taking TN away from the GOP, and Sanders winning easily in VT. That completes the seats where incumbents are retiring.
Places where incumbents are in trouble, we might lose FL and NJ, we should take MT from Conrad Burns, Bob Casey should beat Santorum in PA, OH may possibly go to the Dems but is likely to remain GOP, RI will be interesting.
The only other seat that MIGHT, and it is a big might, switch hands is Kay Bay's seat here in Texas. Barbara Ann Radnofsky has a lot of support, a good amount of cash, and is highly respected. Kay Bay pledged she would retire after two terms, but decided now that her pledge means nothing and will run again. The Dems here in Texas don't like her, but if you were to put her up against any Republican in the nation down here, she would wallop them. Many Republicans down here think she walks on water, so Radnofsky is counting on either a) a slightly lower voter turnout; or b) a huge voter turnout where Kinky Friedman is elected governor, the Republican party is split, and Radnofsky wins the Senate race by 6 points.
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
Bushpilot From South Africa, joined Jul 2007, 0 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1510 times:
I dont see much on the horizon to bring these numbers back up. Iraq is getting worse daily, immigration is on hold for now, the rest of the world hates this administration, media leaks...the dems need to get thier act together here before the summer come up with a plan and make some headway toward gaining more seats.
AndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 6, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1489 times:
Look, the problem is in the context.
Say here in California, Arnold was getting slammed back and forth and his poll numbers were way down. But guess what? He had the highest approval rating as compared to the legislature. He was the politician with the highest approval rating in California at the time, IIRC, that is still the case.
That is part of the problem with the polls, which is a lack of comparison. Bush alone has a low approval rating. Compare Bush to any other politician in a poll and he probably will have a higher approval rating than the politician. That is part of the problem with the Democratic party. After all, they are fighting against a man who will never run for office again.
Bushpilot From South Africa, joined Jul 2007, 0 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1480 times:
Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 6): Compare Bush to any other politician in a poll and he probably will have a higher approval rating than the politician.
Just for fun, I looked up a few other noteworthy world leaders for thier poll numbers. I think youll find your ideas to be a bit wrong. Now I am not one to take a whole lot from polls and I am just doing a google search, I do not vouch for the legitimacy of the media sources as I dont know them.
I knew as soon as I wrote it in that someone would say something. But the pole was published april 4, so I went with the most recent. Maybe if Bush embraced Cindy Sheehan like Chvez did his poll numbers would be better.
If it was "getting worse daily" as I have seen just about everyday in one thread or another the U.S. troops would be dying by the thousands every week. Instead, we just went through one of the lowest casualty periods in over a year. I keep seeing op eds about how Iraq is disintegrating into civil war yet every poll that comes out of Iraq shows the Iraqi people are still optimistic that things are getting better and will continue to do so. Makes you wonder what would have happened and what would be said if the battle of Antietam or Gettysburg was fought today with those same kinds of casualty figures. With todays media in place, the Confederate States of America would be a reality.
I can pretty much guarantee you that the ordinary U.S. voter couldn't give a flying flip what the rest of the world thinks of us.
Unless something very terrible happens in the next few months, the democrats will take control of the House and Senate. All signs point to a public being ready to make a change and let another party have a shot at running things. That the government will grind to a halt as one investigation after another is initiated looking for solid grounds to impeach the President is of no concern to them.
Searpqx From Netherlands, joined Jun 2000, 4343 posts, RR: 11 Reply 14, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1437 times:
Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 13): The Democrats couldn't ask for a better opportunity to capitalize on, and they've got nothing.
No matter which side of the isle you come down on, this has got to be one of the truest statements out there. Right now its their game to lose, and yet they can't seem to figure out what sport their playing, let alone field a team.
Quoting Gilligan (Reply 11): Instead, we just went through one of the lowest casualty periods in over a year.
Without beating a long dead horse, there is a lot more to this war than American lives. Thank god we've reduced that casualty rate, but the Iraqi civilian casualty rate in the meantime has skyrocketed. I won't claim to know if its better or worse over there, you can find snippets of information to back either view up, but when 70+ Iraqi casualties a day is an 'average' day, something, as they say in Texas, "just aint right".
"The two most common elements in the universe are Hydrogen and stupidity"
Gunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3480 posts, RR: 10 Reply 16, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1434 times:
Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 15): Which should really scare the shit out of every single American.
The Republicans are - apparently - screwing up by the numbers . . . indictments, hearings, discontent within the ranks, yadda, yadda . . .
And the Democrats have no plan . . . haven't had a plan . . .
One major party is screwed into the ground, the other is a pilotless ship.
This certainly enforces my viewpoint that we need another player in the American political system. Not only is the two party system inadequate in terms of representing the American public, it's potentially dangerous in the event that neither party has it's shit together.
Gilligan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 17, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1420 times:
Quoting Searpqx (Reply 14): but when 70+ Iraqi casualties a day is an 'average' day, something, as they say in Texas, "just aint right".
As opposed to our civil war where on several days during that conflict you had 5, 9, or 11 thousand dead? It's a shame that anyone is dying but you have to admit, it's pretty low order compared to other civil wars. Heck, 500 to 800k Tutsi citizens were wiped out in a couple of months in 1994. How many Cambodians were slaughtered during Khemer Rouge reign of terror? I'm not trying to justify it, no amount of killing is right, but compared to some other conflicts it's body count is still rather low. Let's hope it only gets lower but yes, something is not right in Red Rock.
Gunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3480 posts, RR: 10 Reply 18, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1411 times:
Quoting Gilligan (Reply 17): As opposed to our civil war where on several days during that conflict you had 5, 9, or 11 thousand dead? It's a shame that anyone is dying but you have to admit, it's pretty low order compared to other civil wars. Heck, 500 to 800k Tutsi citizens were wiped out in a couple of months in 1994. How many Cambodians were slaughtered during Khemer Rouge reign of terror? I'm not trying to justify it, no amount of killing is right, but compared to some other conflicts it's body count is still rather low. Let's hope it only gets lower but yes, something is not right in Red Rock.
Very good point, but those of us that are concerned about civil war in Iraq would say that this is only the begining. I highly doubt we'll see casualty rates at levels anywhere near the ones you mentioned simply because the strategy of warfare being implemented is markedly different. That said, the implications of an Iraqi civil war are just as dramatic as the implications of the American Civil War with respect to the effects it would have on the future of the country, regardless of total casualties.
SATX From United States of America, joined Apr 2005, 2840 posts, RR: 8 Reply 22, posted (7 years 8 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1375 times:
Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 9): I can't believe you included this number! rotfl No possibility that Chavez was the only one polled, eh?
At least the other numbers are believeable.
I thought the number of poor people outnumbered middle class and wealthy in Venezuela by a large margin, so it seems possible to me. Most of the pro-Chavez folks probably don't have a computer or can write in English, so it wouldn't surprise me if nearly everyone who posts here is anti-Chavez.
Quoting Bushpilot (Reply 10): Maybe if Bush embraced Cindy Sheehan like Chvez did his poll numbers would be better.
At first I laughed my ass off. Then I wondered if maybe, just maybe, you're right.
Quoting SFOMEX (Reply 12): I'm sure he will get healthy numbers, but I wonde if those would be enought to defeat the GOP in Texas.
The GOP is golden here in Texas. All they have to do is talk about their relationship with God, their desire to cut taxes and their support for protecting the apparently fragile concept of marriage. As long as they cover those bases and have a few other canned phrases that sound good they're almost assured of victory in my view.
Quoting ANCFlyer (Reply 15): One major party is screwed into the ground, the other is a pilotless ship.
The Republicans are the folks in charge. If the country is screwed up right now, it's on their watch. I'm still waiting for the day when you're able to bash the Republicans without having to attach some derogatory comment about the Democrats in the same post.
Quoting STLGph (Reply 19):
I'm seeing a lot less "Bush/Cheney '04" stickers on cars out and about these days. Wink.
I'm glad you added a *wink* at the end because here in Texas they're still on zillions of trucks and SUV's.
Open Season on Consumer Protections is Just Around the Corner...