Maury From United States of America, joined May 2005, 532 posts, RR: 2 Posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 1287 times:
Of course, many of our friends on the right don't believe in polls, but for the rest of us here in the US who do, the AP wire says: "Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November."
A Democratic House and Senate could mean distressing circumstances for the current President and his pals. So many potential investigations, etc.
AirCop From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 1, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1266 times:
But America still suffers from; its not my congressman, its the others that are (fill in the blank). Only after the first Tuesday in November will we know what the American's real feeling towards Congress is.
Newark777 From United States of America, joined Dec 2004, 9348 posts, RR: 33 Reply 2, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1263 times:
Texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4206 posts, RR: 53 Reply 3, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1256 times:
Quoting AirCop (Reply 1): But America still suffers from; its not my congressman, its the others that are (fill in the blank). Only after the first Tuesday in November will we know what the American's real feeling towards Congress is.
Spot on. Been advising a couple of campaigns and the main thing they have to do in speeches is avoid attacking the individual Congressman or woman, but attack Congress as a whole. Don't say, "Senator Kennedy did this," or "Representative Hastert voted for that." Say, "Congress did this and we need to show them that we will not stand for it." Phrases along those lines are much more likely to be met with a positive response and more likely to bring people into your camp.
Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
Pope From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 4, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1256 times:
First of all this poll is largely meaningless from a predictive standpoint. While I don't dispute the findings, that the majority of the country is favoring democrats over Republicans, the conclusion it draw are completely unsupportable for the reasons I'll outline below. If you ask me, this article is very basic and poor journalism.
1. It's not of likely voters
Quote: The AP-Ipsos survey asked 789 registered voters if the election for the House were held today, would they vote for the Democratic or Republican candidate in their district. Democrats were favored 51 percent to 40 percent.
Given how poor turnout is in mid-term elections, the lerge majority of registered voters simply don't show up to vote.
2. It's not conducted on a district by district basis.
Both side will tell you that at most there are 30 to 35 congressional districts that are in play. Polling anyone outside those districts is meaningless in predicting whether or not Congress will change hands.
3. Historically, while people generally view Congress as an institution unfavorably, they like their Congress person. This dictomy makes it very hard for an incumbent to loose. Most seats change hands when the incumbent retires.
4. There's a hell of a lot of time between now and the election. Remember in the summer of 2004 W was down by double digits in national polls. And we know how that turned out.
PSA53 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3006 posts, RR: 4 Reply 6, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1232 times:
Quoting Pope (Reply 4): First of all this poll is largely meaningless from a predictive standpoint. While I don't dispute the findings, that the majority of the country is favoring democrats over Republicans, the conclusion it draw are completely unsupportable for the reasons I'll outline below. If you ask me, this article is very basic and poor journalism.
Most polls,I find, is just propaganda.
But say this about the Republicans.At least,and it can be said of Bush as well, they took on some pretty hard,infavorable issues head on,and didn't shy away like most politicians do.
Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 7, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1228 times:
Quoting PSA53 (Reply 6): But say this about the Republicans.At least,and it can be said of Bush as well, they took on some pretty hard,infavorable issues head on,and didn't shy away like most politicians do.
Pope From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1221 times:
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 7): They created many of them as well.
Without a doubt. Hell read the very first line of my post. I agree with the findings of the poll. Anyone can tell that the country is not happy with the GOP leadership. But that finding alone does not support a conclusion that the House or the Senate will change hands.
Calm down, read what's being said, and respond to what is said not what you imagine it saying.
PSA53 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3006 posts, RR: 4 Reply 9, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1209 times:
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 7):
They created many of them as well.
True.Like the patriot act.
But despite its civil liberties questions,I feel
better secured that it's in place then nothing
at all.
B757300 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 4114 posts, RR: 25 Reply 10, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1197 times:
Another crap poll from the AP. If they were right in 2004, then John Kerry would be President right now.
This is the typical rigged poll to give the results they want. Just look @ the internals.
53% Democrat
41% Republican
6% Independent/Other
And to repeat what Pope already said...
Secondly, a national poll cannot predict how congressional elections will go. House races are not national but local. Surveying a few hundred people around the country in no way can predict 435 different races.
Constantly you will find polls where 70%-80% say "Congress sucks" but at the same time the same 70%-80% will give their Congressman very high approval.
Also, a national survey almost always has "unnamed Democrat" winning elections but unfortunately for the Democrat Party, they have to run named candidates.
Just like this time in 2004, the media and their fake polls were showing "Bush is crashing, Democrats are surging". I can't even count how many threads we had here saying "Get Ready for President Clark, Kerry, Edwards, Dean, etc."
The day after the election, the media and their fake polls will once again have egg on their faces.
MaverickM11 From United States of America, joined Apr 2000, 15814 posts, RR: 50 Reply 11, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1197 times:
Quoting Maury (Thread starter): Republicans are in jeopardy of losing their grip on Congress in November
Here's hoping.
Quoting Maury (Thread starter): A Democratic House and Senate could mean distressing circumstances for the current President and his pals.
A Democratic House would mean the government would mean more conflict, which would mean less gets less done, which would be a good thing since neither party seems to be able to do what is rational or sensible, nevermind economically sound.
IFEMaster From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 12, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1174 times:
Quoting AirCop (Reply 1): after the first Tuesday in November will we know what the American's real feeling towards Congress is.
It's a shame that this isn't really true...with voter turnout as low as it has been in the past decade, it's a shame that there never really is a true representation of the people.
Who cares anyway? Politician is just another word for crook. Whoever gets elected in to whatever position will be bent.
Texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4206 posts, RR: 53 Reply 13, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1160 times:
Quoting IFEMaster (Reply 12): Who cares anyway? Politician is just another word for crook. Whoever gets elected in to whatever position will be bent.
Get behind and independent candidate. Ask someone from your city council (assuming it is non partisan), a mayor, or a local businessman to run independently. Get a group of 20-30 friends to help you. Hold town hall meetings around the district. Prove that he or she will not be beholden to corporate interests and will report all funding from outside parties as well as meetings with lobbyists/industry execs/etc. Find someone YOU trust and ask them to help change our status.
And for god's sake don't say it can't be done. It CAN be done. It's a really tough, uphill battle, but it can be accomplished and we can change the way politics work in DC, Austin, Madison, Phoenix, wherever. It takes a lot of work, dedication from the candidate and staff, some good ideas, and a personable candidate. Let's do it. Let's right this ship.
Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
JpetekYXMD80 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 4260 posts, RR: 29 Reply 14, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1158 times:
Quoting B757300 (Reply 10): This is the typical rigged poll to give the results they want.
Ah yes, of course. As with everything you don't like or disagree with, it is part of a vast left wing conspiracy. You're just laughable. Now go run from some more threads.
JpetekYXMD80 From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 4260 posts, RR: 29 Reply 17, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1144 times:
Quoting Jwenting (Reply 16): I can vividly remember the polls showing Kerry had a 70-30 lead right up to the moment it was announced he'd lost the elections...
Um......no, sorry.
Quoting Jwenting (Reply 16): Get over it, the world has woken up to the fact that you're a bunch of corrupt loosers who can't even win elections you rigged yourself.
Gunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3462 posts, RR: 11 Reply 18, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1136 times:
As much contempt as I have for the current administration, I don't think the Democrats have anything in the way of a plan for this country...considering that they're probably going to be back in the driver's seat soon, let's hope they get their shit together.
Pope From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 19, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1134 times:
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 15): God but you are eternally delusional.
This from the guy who predicted a Kerry landslide and then had to delete himself to avoid all the embarrassing posts he had written leading up to the election.
Nkops From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 2545 posts, RR: 6 Reply 21, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1124 times:
Quoting MaverickM11 (Reply 11): Americans don't know what the hell they want.
That is correct, except I know I want to stop paying $3.50 for gas.
Even if Dems take control of Congress, it won't get better!!!!
PSA727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 972 posts, RR: 0 Reply 22, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1096 times:
This poll is so pointless.
Put in specific candidate names in specific districts, poll those specific
constituents, and see what results you will get.
Remember in December 2003 the "poll" at that time had GWB trailing
against "Democrat Candidate". But when they put one of the actual
Democrats running for president into the equation, GWB almost always
came out ahead.
Moreover, just wait for Howard Dean to give more 30 second soundbites,
and see how the polls are afterwards.
Artiefufkin From United States of America, joined May 2006, 704 posts, RR: 0 Reply 23, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1088 times:
The Cook Political Report is one of the most highly respected polls in Washington. He's been very accurate in the past.
To date he shows 14 vulnerable GOP House seats. 0 vulnerable Dem seats.
And this has been getting worse as time goes by as Bush sickens people.
Stretch From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 39 posts, RR: 0 Reply 24, posted (6 years 11 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1080 times:
I'm for a person who will follow the US Constitution, not a special intrest group. I want low taxes, less gov. involvement, etc.
If it's a dem that is going to do that, or a rep, or an indy, I'll vote for them. If they lie to me, I'll vote against them the next time their seat is up. I am sooo tired of ALL the politicians that are so out of touch with how things really are. Last time I checked, the good ole USA was a country "By the people, for the people." Seems as though most have been missing those words in the D.C. area.
Stretch
25 Duff44: Couldn't have said it better myself. I'm sick of both the religious wrong (I refuse to call them 'right') and pinko-commie ultra liberals running thi
26 NIKV69: These polls always are. If you ask a huge percentage of Democrats who they are going to vote for what do you think they are going to say? I kind of r
27 Falstaff: That is what I care about too. Ten years ago I drove a 72 Cadillac with a 472 C.I.D. engine and I got 7 mile per gallon all the time. What a great ca
28 JpetekYXMD80: What? Ohio was one of the closest, hotly contested borderline states. Pretty logical to be off on that, because it was something of a coin flip. If t
29 Maury: You should send the AP a tart note. Let them know you're an a.netter when you do.
30 NIKV69: Yikes, my friend had the same car and we nicknamed it the "dragon wagon" Talk about a gas guzzler. I mean I drive a Maxima and I average 26 MPG HIghw
31 JpetekYXMD80: I'm not a big fan of exit polls in general, and they are inherently far from always accurate. Once again, Florida is a big battleground state, and th
32 Falstaff: My buddy Gerry had a 1989 Buick LeSabre Estate Wagon. We called it the same name. We thought we were being original. That was neat car, The last year
33 Stretch: Glad my 06 F-150 pulled 20mpg the other day....lol. If they made fuel efficient cars with leg room for tall fellers like me, I'd buy them. 6'5, and a
34 N174UA: The opposite of progress is CONgress... (regardless of the party in control) Yesssirrreeeeeeebob. We have 3 1/2 months to the election. That is an ET
35 NIKV69: Unless I am mistaken there isn't enough oil there to make a big difference. We have to cut down on our use of oil. Big time. It is the only way to br
36 Srbmod: They were right, it's just that they didn't factor in the fraud factor in Ohio......... As long as the Democrats have loonies like Pelosi and Reid in
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