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Future Of Lebanon As A Sovereign, Stable Country  
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 1571 times:

I wanted to throw this out there and see what people think about it.

Lebanon has not been a stable country for about thirty years. Just because it was once a harmonious, wonderful place does not mean that it will inevitably become that again. The precious population balance between Christians and Muslims that allowed Lebanon to flourish fifty years ago does not exist today and will likely never be again.

Since the end of the Civil War, Lebanon existed as literally a Syrian surrogate. Since the Cedar Revolution last year, Lebanon has been in a precious balance between the Lebanese Government and Hezbollah militants in the South that effectively had a state within a state. The Lebanese Government was never willing to establish the rule of law over the entire country. It seems clear that doing so would lead to bloodshed and possibly a Civil War. Instead they tolerated the Hezbollah militants operating freely in the South out of hope that things would just work out. But all that has done is reenforced the status-quo and increased tensions within Lebanon.

So my observation is that perhaps another Civil War in Lebanon is inevitable. I simply don't see anything changing unless the Lebanese Government is willing to confront Hezbollah and establish control over the entire county. Until that happens, Lebanon will continue to be torn between the elements that kicked Syria out and want a democracy and those that seek to continue war against Israel at all costs.

I know people will say that Lebanon was just on the verge of dealing with Hezbollah before Israel came in but this is likely not true and more importantly irrelevant now. But eventually Israel's military operation will be over and Lebanon will have the same problems it has had for years.

Perhaps Lebanon's destiny is just to be a puppet of Syria? I'm not saying this to be cold hearted or mean, but rather to point out that if Lebanon wants to function as an independent country then they have to take the steps to take control of their own country. Otherwise, all of the tensions will continue to be just under the surface, boiling, and occasionally leading to a confrontation like this. That is a future that I don't think anyone wants for Lebanon.

31 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineFlyKev From United Kingdom, joined Jan 2006, 1383 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 1559 times:
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Nicely said.

Well i hope somethign to sort themselves out happens soon, as its a countyr which Id love to visit sometime in my life.
Plus they deserve a break from the last 30 years.

Kev.



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User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 1557 times:

What a load of propaganda bollox.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
The precious population balance between Christians and Muslims that allowed Lebanon to flourish fifty years ago does not exist today and will likely never be again.

What evidence do you have of this? Post it.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
The Lebanese Government was never willing to establish the rule of law over the entire country.

You can pull the wool over your eyes, but you can't pull it over others'. You watched the same CNN I did last night, where the former U.S. ambassador to Israel clearly laid out why this exact situation exists, the endorsement of the U.S. for elections without full disarmament, preventing the Lebanese government from full military autonomy within their borders.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
I know people will say that Lebanon was just on the verge of dealing with Hezbollah before Israel came in but this is likely not true and more importantly irrelevant now. But eventually Israel's military operation will be over and Lebanon will have the same problems it has had for years.

As I've stated over and over, clearly Lebanon needs outside help to rid itself of Hezbollah. Let's give it to them without destroying their country. It can be done, if Israel will stop breathing down on them like a fiery dragon pushing every button possible.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
Perhaps Lebanon's destiny is just to be a puppet of Syria?

I reject this point of view in its entirety and without reservation.



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User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21478 posts, RR: 54
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 1528 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
I wanted to throw this out there and see what people think about it.

And it sounded so much like a loyal-to-the-death exculpation of the current israeli idiocy...!  Yeah sure

But that's probably just in my head...  crazy 


User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1515 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
What evidence do you have of this? Post it.

Read up on your history. I suggest "A History of the Modern Middle East" by William Cleveland. Straight-forward information. France designed Lebanon to ensure that Lebanese Christians who reflected their interests dominated the country. Parliament seats were initially divided on a 6:5 Christian to Muslim ratio. When Muslims became a majority in the 1960s, everything started to unravel and Lebanon has never been the same.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
You can pull the wool over your eyes, but you can't pull it over others'. You watched the same CNN I did last night, where the former U.S. ambassador to Israel clearly laid out why this exact situation exists, the endorsement of the U.S. for elections without full disarmament, preventing the Lebanese government from full military autonomy within their borders.

How can there have been full disarmament of Hezbollah without Lebanese Government action??? US pressure for elections did not change the facts on the ground at all. Your assertion that the U.S. push for elections prevented the Lebanese from having full military autonomy is unfounded and there is no proof of that.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
As I've stated over and over, clearly Lebanon needs outside help to rid itself of Hezbollah. Let's give it to them without destroying their country. It can be done, if Israel will stop breathing down on them like a fiery dragon pushing every button possible.

So what do you propose, a US/UN force occuping the country? Arming the Lebanese Government and sparking a Civil War?

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
I reject this point of view in its entirety and without reservation.

Why? Lebanon has been a domain of Syria longer than it hasn't been in modern history.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1504 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
Read up on your history.

No need. You were projecting as to the future.

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
How can there have been full disarmament of Hezbollah without Lebanese Government action???

How is it done anywhere else? Read up on your history.

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
So what do you propose, a US/UN force occuping the country? Arming the Lebanese Government and sparking a Civil War?

No, no, no! Multi-national help for Lebanon to keep Syria at bay while Hezbollah is cleared out. Take out the weapons caches. Cut off the sources of further armament. Do it while Lebanon is able to strengthen itself in the process.

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
Why? Lebanon has been a domain of Syria longer than it hasn't been in modern history.

It doesn't have to be a forgone conclusion as you make it out to be. We helped get Syria out after 30 years of occupation. Now let's keep them out.



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User currently offlineFalcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 1457 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
So my observation is that perhaps another Civil War in Lebanon is inevitable. I simply don't see anything changing unless the Lebanese Government is willing to confront Hezbollah and establish control over the entire county.

I agree. And since Lebanon was not willing to confront them, Israel, out of sheer frustration with attacks coming from there, did it for them. That's the fault of Lebanon, and, maybe more of Syria, which keeps Hezbollah there to be their puppets.

Quoting RJpieces (Thread starter):
I know people will say that Lebanon was just on the verge of dealing with Hezbollah before Israel came in but this is likely not true and more importantly irrelevant now.

That's just a post-facto lie being put out by the terror supporters to assuage their conscience.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
What a load of propaganda bollox.

Not quite. Maybe you should try delving deeper into issues, AW. You might find that there's more to this then one-sentences drivel, like yours.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):
As I've stated over and over, clearly Lebanon needs outside help to rid itself of Hezbollah.

FROM WHO? Syria? Riiight? The U.S? The Middle East would never accept such help. Iran? HAHAHA. They CONTROL Hezbollah. Russia? Riiight.

From WHO?


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1445 times:

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 6):
You might find that there's more to this then one-sentences drivel, like yours.

Oh, poor Falcon. That's called a "prelude". It's designed to be short.

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 6):
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 2):As I've stated over and over, clearly Lebanon needs outside help to rid itself of Hezbollah.
FROM WHO? Syria? Riiight? The U.S? The Middle East would never accept such help. Iran? HAHAHA. They CONTROL Hezbollah. Russia? Riiight.

Multi-national help. I've already stated that.

Nice try, buckeroo.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineSFOMEX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1428 times:

Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 6):
That's just a post-facto lie being put out by the terror supporters to assuage their conscience.

Wow Falcon, I'm almost on your side on this issue but "terror supporters" is uncalled and plainly wrong. You can criticize Israel actions without supporting Hezbollah and its crimes at the same time.

Unbelievable, I'm at the moderate side when you're with the likes of the Christian right! What's going on in this world?  Wow!


User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1424 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
So what do you propose, a US/UN force occuping the country? Arming the Lebanese Government and sparking a Civil War?

No, no, no! Multi-national help for Lebanon to keep Syria at bay while Hezbollah is cleared out. Take out the weapons caches. Cut off the sources of further armament. Do it while Lebanon is able to strengthen itself in the process.

And where so far in history has this actually succeeded?

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
Quoting RJpieces (Reply 5):
Why? Lebanon has been a domain of Syria longer than it hasn't been in modern history.

It doesn't have to be a forgone conclusion as you make it out to be. We helped get Syria out after 30 years of occupation. Now let's keep them out.

That has yet to be determined. Personally, Syrian influence its probably still high.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1419 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 9):
And where so far in history has this actually succeeded?

Start with Northern Ireland and work yourself backwards. Come on, that was an easy one. Give me something I can respond to that will meet with Falcon's standard on number of words.

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 9):
That has yet to be determined. Personally, Syrian influence its probably still high.

That is your opinion, not a forgone conclusion. Hmm, where've we seen this before.  scratchchin  Oh! Eastern Europe, perhaps?



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinePar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7287 posts, RR: 8
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1419 times:

Quoting AeroWesty
"You can pull the wool over your eyes, but you can't pull it over others'. You watched the same CNN I did last night, where the former U.S. ambassador to Israel clearly laid out why this exact situation exists, the endorsement of the U.S. for elections without full disarmament, preventing the Lebanese government from full military autonomy within their borders."

Everything I read and hear is that the French and the EU have influence in Lebanon and not the US. You state that the US endorsed the elections, are you saying that the US is responsible by their endorsement and not those who proposed the elections in the first place?
I watched the same interview you are talking about, and did not take it seriously since based on everything I had heard and read, the US influence was minimal, and I did not think that the Lebanese cared one way or the other what the US thought of their elections.

Perhaps I was wrong?


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1409 times:

Quoting Par13del (Reply 11):
Everything I read and hear is that the French and the EU have influence in Lebanon and not the US. You state that the US endorsed the elections, are you saying that the US is responsible by their endorsement and not those who proposed the elections in the first place?

It wasn't so much the U.S. dictating what would happen, but our previously withholding support for elections until disarmament occurred, through several means, until ~2001 when elections were pushed to claim victory for "democracies". I'd have to go back to the interview when the transcript is posted or dig up a resource to get an exact quote. Obviously, as a member of several world bodies, the U.S. has some influence, and what I said shouldn't be taken as saying it was the only influence.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineSocal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 1405 times:

Falcon84, why doesnt Israel help the Lebanon Government? Since its not the Government who is causing all of these issues. There are innocent people on both sides of the border. Israel and Lebanon need to work together to root out hezbolla. I know sounds easy..... but it could work.


I Love HNL.............
User currently offlinePar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7287 posts, RR: 8
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1390 times:

Socal if my memory of events is still clear, the only persons in Lebanon who were in any way "friendly" towards Israel were the Christians in the south, and last I checked, they lost in the civil war, I really don't know if they even won seats in parliament, those in the know will provide the accurate facts in that regard.

If Israel "offered" to help Lebanon, I'm certain the request would be officially and unofficially rejected, Lebanon is an Arab nation, and could not in good faith, be seen to be abandoning the Arab cause by aiding the Nation of Israel while the Palestinians still do not have a home.

On another note, has Lebanon ever recognized the right of the State of Israel to exist, or recognized the UN charter of 1948 which created Israel?
Have to look that up.


User currently offlineSocal From United States of America, joined Mar 2005, 473 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1374 times:

Both sides need to swallow their prides..... and stop hezbolla from killing innocent people. Just beacuse Lebanon is an Arab country, doesn't mean they have to support hezbolla. These are peoples lives we are talking about, if hezbolla doesn't care about peoples lives (Both sides of the border) then hezbolla and all its followers should just jump off a bridge.


I Love HNL.............
User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1367 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 10):
Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 9):
And where so far in history has this actually succeeded?

Start with Northern Ireland and work yourself backwards. Come on, that was an easy one. Give me something I can respond to that will meet with Falcon's standard on number of words.

You actually answered wrong on that one. I was referring to the call for 'Multi-National help', which I took it to mean either US or UN troops. IIRC, this was not used in Northern Ireland. My question still stands.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1358 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 16):
IIRC, this was not used in Northern Ireland. My question still stands.

Nothing like being picayune on a nice Saturday, is there? Now you may have taken what I said as "US or UN troops", but that's not what I said, was it?

I was actually correct with Northern Ireland. The disarmament of was not simply a British effort, it was a multi-national one. If you want a US name to go with it, start with Sen. George Miller.



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User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1344 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 17):

Nothing like being picayune on a nice Saturday, is there?

 biggrin 

See how mean I can get when I am at the office on a Saturday night?

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 17):

I was actually correct with Northern Ireland.

Agreed, we are actually both correct, IMHO. In Ireland, you had more people willing to give peace a chance than not, but no multi-national troops were used. My point was to indicate that the UN has been virtually impotent or unable to deal with these problems. The first UN action, Korea, is still unresolved, for example.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1344 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 18):
My point was to indicate that the UN has been virtually impotent or unable to deal with these problems. The first UN action, Korea, is still unresolved, for example.

The exact reason why I didn't say "UN" is that this board is so anti-UN, that even the whiff of it would bring about a rant such as yours. Well done you. You didn't disappoint.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineAndesSMF From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1336 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 19):
is that this board is so anti-UN, that even the whiff of it would bring about a rant such as yours. Well done you. You didn't disappoint.

Oh, great, perfect! What is your reason for being in such a bad mood, too!  silly  If you think that is a rant from my side, you ain't seen nothin' yet. Heck, I even said I agreed with you on Northern Ireland.

(p.s. I know what you can do to people on your bad side, so assume that I am groveling and attempting to get a little back into your good graces, but I still dont like the UN)


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1336 times:

Quoting AndesSMF (Reply 20):
I know what you can do to people on your bad side,

(I don't have a bad side. I photograph equally well on either profile.)  Wink



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User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1313 times:

Quoting Socal (Reply 15):
Both sides need to swallow their prides..... and stop hezbolla from killing innocent people. Just beacuse Lebanon is an Arab country, doesn't mean they have to support hezbolla.

Hezbollah is just a symptom, not the disease.

It interests me that a lot of people seem to think that if Hezbollah didn't exist, the ordinary people of Lebanon would suddenly reveal a deep and abiding love of Israel and all its works.

I don't know if anyone else on here has actually been bombed? I have, as it happens. Believe me, for years afterwards it's very difficult even to begin to see the other guy's point of view.

As far as the ordinary people of Lebanon are concerned, they are currently going in fear of their lives (and, more importantly, the lives of their children). They are already mostly having to do without electricity, and soon they'll have to go without clean water. They'll have watched the airport being destroyed and all the tourists leaving. The tourists won't be back for five years or more, so a lot of them already know that their jobs are gone and their businesses are ruined.

What all that will boil down to is that in any future elections, any candidates who want to have any chance at all of being elected will have to put opposition to Israel at the very top of their manifestos. It won't matter which party or faction they happen to be members of.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1313 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
No need. You were projecting as to the future.

I think it is a safe bet to say that Lebanon's population will not significantly change in the immediate future--i.e. I doubt Christians will ever again be a majority there.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
No, no, no! Multi-national help for Lebanon to keep Syria at bay while Hezbollah is cleared out. Take out the weapons caches. Cut off the sources of further armament. Do it while Lebanon is able to strengthen itself in the process.

So what exactly does this entail? Who exactly is going to take out the weapons caches? What will this multi-national force do? Who is going to stop Iran from flying/shipping arms into BEY? How does one strengthen the Lebanese Government while simultaneously fighting a guerilla movement in the south without arming them and provoking a Civil War? You haven't provided a real alternative yet, just generalizations.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 5):
It doesn't have to be a forgone conclusion as you make it out to be. We helped get Syria out after 30 years of occupation. Now let's keep them out.

We "helped Syria get out", yet their intelligence service still controls a lot of activities in Lebanon and pretty much control Hezbollah in the South. It appears that Syria never really left Lebanon....And that is what we are still dealing with today.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20677 posts, RR: 62
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 2 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1302 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 23):
What will this multi-national force do?

Please get back to me when you can read what I said, not what you wanted me to say.



International Homo of Mystery
25 Post contains links Mjszanto : One of my favorite Middle Eastern analysts is Michael Young--opinion editor of the Beirut Daily Star. Here is a link to one of his recent columns. htt
26 ME AVN FAN : Lebanon was in civil war between 1975 and 1990, and rather unstable in the 90ies, but has tremendously improved in the last 6 years. The ugly lesson o
27 AndesSMF : "The hostilities began on 12 July 2006, when Hezbollah completed their Operation True Promise, named after Hezbollah's "promise" to free prisoners in
28 ME AVN FAN : that "the hostilities" began then is obvious, the rest of the statement however is RUBBISH, as the real thing began on Thursday 13th July with the un
29 AndesSMF : Three questions: 1) How many missiles did Hezbollah aim at civilian targets to begin this operation. 2) If you are so upset that Israel is targetting
30 Alessandro : I think the Falangistes are the key to peace in Lebanon, as for Russians helping Lebanon, I think they only do that if there´s a warranty that no mus
31 ME AVN FAN : of course, and that is why I stated that I understood their acting in the South-of-Litani Lebanon, where the Hizbullah have a dominating role the Ara
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