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Break-up Iraq, Says Former US Ambassador  
User currently offlineBraybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5710 posts, RR: 31
Posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2187 times:

http://www.timesonline.co.uk/article/0,,2092-2271755,00.html

Very interesting article from a former US Ambassador to Croatia, which seems to make a lot of sense. The only real problem is Baghdad.

[Edited 2006-07-18 05:37:48]

61 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAirCop From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2183 times:

No problem it will happen once the United States leave. I expect three countries to be formed out of what is now Iraq, sort of a repeat of Yugoslavia.

User currently offlineSTT757 From United States of America, joined Mar 2000, 16866 posts, RR: 51
Reply 2, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2159 times:

Quoting Braybuddy (Thread starter):
The only real problem is Baghdad.

Actually I think the biggest problem would be dividing up the Oil Revenue.



Eastern Air lines flt # 701, EWR-MCO Boeing 757
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2153 times:

No, no no - no need for partition, "democracy was always going to be a bit messy". "We are so much better off without Saddam"! And other similar remarks.

How does the US administration, not to mention Blair and our own nice Mr Howard have the nerve to maintain that this catastrophe in Iraq was good policy? Just about anything else must have been better.

The creation of Gertrude Bell might have looked a bit like a camel, but you could argue that her effort was far more successful than all the Presidents men (and women) have managed.

And partition? Super idea, pity that Saddam sort of anticipated that and mixed the populations up much more than they were in Bell's days. We dont hear much about the ancient Christian community in Iraq these days, I wonder why that is!


User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 2 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2150 times:

A lot of people have suggested this before...I personally think it's the only viable option but I don't think US policymakers have ever seriously considered it.

I think the US should move all of our troops to the Kurdish areas, help them build a functioning state that is a democracy, and then incorporate the other areas of Iraq as is desired/feasable.


User currently offlineHAWK21M From India, joined Jan 2001, 31684 posts, RR: 56
Reply 5, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2133 times:

Division would cause greater Unrest not only in Iraq but also Protests Around the World.
regds
MEL



Think of the brighter side!
User currently offlineOly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6728 posts, RR: 11
Reply 6, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2127 times:

Isn't it in enough pieces already?



Ah the colonial legacy. How many artificially created countries around the world could do with a redraw on more representative ethnic/tribal grounds....


and what happens. Nationalism and removal of the others who are different and the "cause of all our problems." Then you have, instead of different people living in the same country with tension, people who are more polarised living next door to each other and still fighting. If Iraq ever does get partitioned on ethnic grounds you'll probably end up with power conflicts as different external groups side with the different ethnicities.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 7, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2114 times:

Quoting Braybuddy (Thread starter):
problem is Baghdad.

Baghdad simply is the Capital of the Sunni part of Iraq, while Basra is the Capital of the Shi'ite part. You may separate Baghdad, so that Sunni Iraq can unite with Syria, which might also be an interesting project.


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2113 times:

A very good solution.

User currently offlineBraybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5710 posts, RR: 31
Reply 9, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2104 times:

When you look at the state of the country with an average of 60 murders daily in Baghdad alone, plus most of the country simply ungovernable, splitting it into three would, dare I say it, almost seem like an obvious solution.

Having your life in constant danger by living with hostile neighbours would no doubt be a strong incentive for people to move if they found themselves in the "wrong" country, but if that failed they could be paid to relocate. It would be a hell of a lot cheaper in the long run than fighting an endless war.

The country is already in civil war. Look what happened with Yugolsavia: there were arguments against splitting the country at the time and the break-up of the country proved the salvation of its constituent parts.

If there were odds on the future of Iraq, I'd be betting heavily on this option.


User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2095 times:

It sounds like the only viable solution for the tortured population of Iraq.
Even under the worse days of Saddam ,the death toll did not reach those staggering figures currently experienced.
You can't really expect Sunni and Shi'iah populations to merge easily.The fate of the civil population should be the furthermost concern to all political considerations-far beyond petrol or geo-political chess-games.
Bush is not only dis-respectful towards the Iraqi people,but most importantly non-compliant with his christian religion ,that seems to be a major motivator in his political decisions.
The idea to merge sunni-oriented Syria with parts of Iraq sounds interesting but would never get the green-flag from the Colonial powers.
Immagine a oil-rich greater Iraq-Syria entity ,next to an Iranian-controlled Shi'iah part of Iraq...



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineMarco From United Arab Emirates, joined Jul 2000, 4169 posts, RR: 11
Reply 11, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2085 times:

And partition? Super idea, pity that Saddam sort of anticipated that and mixed the populations up much more than they were in Bell's days. We dont hear much about the ancient Christian community in Iraq these days, I wonder why that is!

I wonder why too. I happen to be an Assyrian Christian from Iraq and have posted numerous threads regarding this topic and the "kurdization" of northern Iraq. It's sad that about one million people in Iraq present till this day are hardly ever mentioned.



Proud to be an Assyrian!
User currently offlineCedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8114 posts, RR: 53
Reply 12, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2067 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 7):
so that Sunni Iraq can unite with Syria, which might also be an interesting project.

And Shia Iraq can unite with Iran. Brilliant, White House dudes! Hand half of Iraq to your second biggest enemy in the region, and the other half to your first biggest enemy! (Actually I think Saudi Arabia is the US' biggest enemy in the region, I mean, they actually attacked the mainland and killed 3,000 Americans! But the Saudi royal family are friends with the Bush royal family, so we can't talk about it!)



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineBeaucaire From Syria, joined Sep 2003, 5252 posts, RR: 24
Reply 13, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2063 times:

Quoting Marco (Reply 11):
I wonder why too. I happen to be an Assyrian Christian from Iraq and have posted numerous threads regarding this topic and the "kurdization" of northern Iraq. It's sad that about one million people in Iraq present till this day are hardly ever mentioned.

You are right -so called "minorities" -like Coptes in Egypt -are commonly forgotten or smashed between the wheels of super-powers or mainstream religious interests.
Turkey announced yesterday to considers actions to move into Kurdish-Iraq to control Kurdish sponsored movements into Turkey.Things in Iraq will not become easier....



Please respect animals - don't eat them...
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2061 times:

Quoting Cedarjet (Reply 12):
so that Sunni Iraq can unite with Syria, which might also be an interesting project.

And Shia Iraq can unite with Iran. Brilliant, White House dudes! Hand half of Iraq to your second biggest enemy in the region, and the other half to your first biggest enemy! (Actually I think Saudi Arabia is the US' biggest enemy in the region, I mean, they actually attacked the mainland and killed 3,000 Americans! But the Saudi royal family are friends with the Bush royal family, so we can't talk about it!)

-
But Syria is NOT an enemy of the USA. It already in 1991 was participating in the liberation of Kuwait, and for years has been a partner of the USA in their "war on terror". As President Bashar al-Assad has repeatedly stated, Syria is a friend of the USA. And imagine, the USA hands Baghdad over to Syria !  yes   optimist   praise 


User currently offlineMrmeangenes From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 566 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2028 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 14):
But Syria is NOT an enemy of the USA.

May one assume you are being sarcastic ? I hope so !!!



gene
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 16, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2021 times:

Quoting Mrmeangenes (Reply 15):
But Syria is NOT an enemy of the USA.

May one assume you are being sarcastic ? I hope so !!!

50/50 ! BUT Syria indeed is NOT any enemy of the USA and has never been. Just look back to 1991 and the liberation in Kuwait where Syrian troops were part of the alliance there. There have been aspects of adversity, but ask some "services-people" of your country about the close co-operation in regard to "interviewing" elQaeda people ! CIA(etc) members doing "interviews" in Damascus with the support of Dr Assad. Alltogether, possibly a "difficult partner" but NOT an enemy.


User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2007 times:

Quoting Mrmeangenes (Reply 15):
May one assume you are being sarcastic ? I hope so !!!

Oh lord he's at it again. A few weeks ago he claimed that Syria fights terrorism or something like that....Of course he was greatly flamed for that.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1993 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 17):
Syria fights terrorism

to repeat it :
-
50/50 ! BUT Syria indeed is NOT any enemy of the USA and has never been. Just look back to 1991 and the liberation in Kuwait where Syrian troops were part of the alliance there. There have been aspects of adversity, but ask some "services-people" of your country about the close co-operation in regard to "interviewing" elQaeda people ! CIA(etc) members doing "interviews" in Damascus with the support of Dr Assad. Alltogether, possibly a "difficult partner" but NOT an enemy.
*************************************  wave 
many of those you recognize as friends have done less for you !


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3505 posts, RR: 9
Reply 19, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1972 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 4):
I personally think it's the only viable option but I don't think US policymakers have ever seriously considered it.

It should never have been a country as it is today in the first place. The British cut it out of the Ottoman Empire with no regard to the past relations (or lack thereof) of the various ethnic and tribal factions in the area. The only thing that's prevented the civil unrest we're seeing now from happening in the past has been oppressive dictatorships.

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 4):
Division would cause greater Unrest not only in Iraq but also Protests Around the World.

Why? Because it makes too much sense? Anyone who looks at the history of Iraq can understand why its prospects for a stable democracy are bleak. Division would be in the best interests of peace, but it will never happen. For the Bush Administration, dividing Iraq would acknowledge their failure to establish a democratic government there, and it's a sure bet that isn't going to happen.



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineMarco From United Arab Emirates, joined Jul 2000, 4169 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1956 times:

Actually ME AVN FAN is very right. Syria is leaded by a secular party whose interests are probably more closely aligned with the USA. The same goes for the Baath party in Iraq. It's the new "democratically" elected thieves with militias in Baghdad you have to worry about. They hate you more than anyone in the Baath party ever did...


Proud to be an Assyrian!
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1936 times:

Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 19):
Why? Because it makes too much sense? Anyone who looks at the history of Iraq can understand why its prospects for a stable democracy are bleak. Division would be in the best interests of peace, but it will never happen. For the Bush Administration, dividing Iraq would acknowledge their failure to establish a democratic government there, and it's a sure bet that isn't going to happen.

You quoted the wrong post, but I agree with you.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (8 years 2 months 2 days ago) and read 1920 times:

Quoting Marco (Reply 20):
Actually ME AVN FAN is very right. Syria is leaded by a secular party whose interests are probably more closely aligned with the USA. The same goes for the Baath party in Iraq. It's the new "democratically" elected thieves with militias in Baghdad you have to worry about. They hate you more than anyone in the Baath party ever did...

Thanks Marco and ME AVN FAN for saving my blood pressure. The great thing with dealing with the Syrian President is that he will check your eyesight just before his assistants deal with your root canals.

It is a bit rich for the US to complain about the way that Syria is run and the to use its special facilities. As for the border with Iraq, it was the US and the coalition of the (partly) willing that invaded, so border security was up to them not the Syrians. As Colin Powell told him, if you break it, it is yours. And that includes the borders.

Has anyone played Gulf War2 recently

http://www.idleworm.com/nws/2002/11/iraq2.shtml

It is not entirely that plan, but there are awful similarities in places.
Be afraid!


User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3505 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (8 years 2 months 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 1906 times:

Quoting RJpieces (Reply 21):

You quoted the wrong post, but I agree with you.

I wish I could figure out how that happens...my apologies!



Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
User currently offlineBraybuddy From Ireland, joined Aug 2004, 5710 posts, RR: 31
Reply 24, posted (8 years 2 months 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1900 times:

Execellent posts, Gunsontheroof, and welcome to my RU list

25 Csavel : Not to mention that for all the rhetoric from the US, Syria did sort of keep Hezbollah on a leash, I'm not saying Syria should stay in Lebanon, it is
26 Baroque : And is that not going to be the sad sorry sequel to all this - the list of unintended effects will just go on and on. Where did OBL come from? Blow b
27 Post contains images Marco : Iraq was led by a secular party until this pathetic war. My intention is not to condone or condemn Saddam but the fact of the matter is that these shi
28 Par13del : Question often overlooked is how did societies get where they are today, especially by those of us in the "West" we did not just overnight mix Catholi
29 Marco : Besides having a slight population majority there is no legitmacy for a Kurdistan in Northern Iraq.
30 Par13del : Marco that's the same for all of Iraq, the middle and the south.
31 ME AVN FAN : and are clearly anti-Western, and in fact even anti-US-American "slight population majorities" have been at the origin of many countries of this worl
32 Baroque : The trouble is it is not the Assyrians that are coming down like a wolf on the fold. For the Angel of Death spread his wings on the blast, And breath
33 Slider : I've been saying this for THREE FREAKING YEARS!!!!
34 Mrmeangenes : I have a newsflash for Mr. Galbraith,US Senator Joseph Biden,and those nice folks at the Council for Foreign Relations who are seeking to balkanize Ir
35 Post contains links Slider : Yes, people have no interest in returning to their roots. Signed, Montenegro **************** Actually, a very good column by Pat Buchanan that fits
36 Marco : Marco that's the same for all of Iraq, the middle and the south. I particularly don't think so. "slight population majorities" have been at the origin
37 Par13del : Marco are you then saying that the Sunni's, Kurds and Shities want to live together? If that were the case, how is it possible for "outsiders" to turn
38 Post contains links Mrmeangenes : The people who are pushing this idea are called the Goals for Americans Foundation: http://www.goalsforamericans.org/ If you take a look at their webs
39 Beaucaire : Some articles in UK and German media talk about a consent by Washington prior to the attacks of Lebanon and an explicit endorsment by Bush and Condole
40 Slider : Not if they're already being forced to coalesce....which has been the thrust thus far.
41 YOWza : I was under the impression that there had always been an intention to split Iraqi Kurdistan into its own entity whether it was independent or semi-aut
42 Mrmeangenes : I think the intention was and is to let the Iraqi people sort that out for themselves,once we are gone.
43 Mrmeangenes : Incidentally, I ran across this parody today-written by someone after Sen. Biden's May "Op ed": National Democratic leaders yesterday shied away from
44 Pbottenb : Who gives a rats ass. As long as we get our friggen oil...I got a truck to feed.
45 Gunsontheroof : Ummm...if you haven't noticed, they've already started "sorting".
46 Mrmeangenes : Yeah, I've noticed. I notice the Sunnis,who took part in a massive pogrom against the Shi'ites,are now getting worried. The ties between Iranian Shi'i
47 Baroque : Thank you for the link, it gave me Mearsheimer and Walt's response, very useful, I knew it existed but had not found it. As for the map, it is really
48 Post contains links Baroque : Your rat's ass just made feeding your truck more expensive in the short run, and in the longer run ensured it will be on a starvation diet. See how t
49 ME AVN FAN : you have to make a difference between Kurds and Kurdistan. As Marco emphasizes, Kurdistan includes a variety of NON-Kurdish minorities. Kurds are (ht
50 Post contains links ME AVN FAN : THAT of course is the reason why the Arab-Sunnis insist on having Mossul inside their sector and not to lose this oil-rich corner to the Kurds. - As
51 Baroque : Ah, that nice Mr Necropolis and his boss Mr Megalopolis, yes indeed. A bit tricky to match against my map cos Sunniland has no details, but it looks
52 Mrmeangenes : What do you want to bet the "let's carve Iraq up" folks-some of whom were allied with the Sunnis and Ba'athists- have options on the oil-rich areas ?
53 Baroque : The Australian Wheat Board's (AWB) dealings with Saddams lot are a current scandal. However, if we were able to lay open the agreements, half agreeme
54 Post contains links Pbottenb : Again, who cares. Sure it will be more expensive...so what? Ill have to make choices...so what? I have to make hard choices every day.. I'll just buy
55 Baroque : Yes, it is true that IF you got all the oil shale out and retorted it, there would be more retort oil that Saudi A has oil in the ground. That link d
56 ME AVN FAN : The Ba'athist Party is secular and also has a broad following among Shi'ites. You need to make a difference between Saddam and the Saddam loyalists w
57 Pbottenb : Excellent reply, you seem to know alot more about it than I do - hopefully they can figure out how to make it work...when oil is at $150 / barrell I
58 Baroque : Thank you, if I did not know a bit about it, I suspect I might be liable to prosecution!! And I dont want that. I sort of gulped at the USD150 sugges
59 Rolfen : Break it up. After 15 years of civil war and whatnot, lebanon is still not unified. Break it up, a unified iraq might have worked in another part of t
60 Arrow : Baroque: Nice posts; I learned a lot from that. Alberta oilsands, too, are not the panacea everyone seems to think they are. It takes a lot of energy,
61 Baroque : Thank you. The oilsands illustrate well the wonderful paradox that we have entered. Great potential for wealth generation, but little effect on the f
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