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What Will Become Of Middle East After Oil?  
User currently offlineKdtwflyer From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 835 posts, RR: 1
Posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 5326 times:

What do you think will happen to middle eastern nations after oil is depleted significantly, say by 2075?


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35 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineRJpieces From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5312 times:

They will return to the primitive conditions that existed in the 1920s????

User currently offlineMDorBust From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5310 times:

They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

User currently offlinePhotopilot From Canada, joined Jul 2002, 2827 posts, RR: 18
Reply 3, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5300 times:

By the time oil finally runs out in the Mid East, it will be hundreds of dollars per barrel and the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA. Every major company, the stock markets, etc, will be controlled by foreign countries.

They Arabs won't be hurting, but the USA will be bankrupt from years of trying to pay for oil that they must BUY from countries who have it.

Think it can't happen? Just look at the balance of payments USA/Saudia Arabia and see who owns what. Add China into the mix and look out USA.


User currently offlineBobster2 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 5289 times:

Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA.



Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
the USA will be bankrupt from years of trying to pay for oil

That's like investing in Enron. What's the point of the Arabs buying something with no value?


User currently offlineETStar From Canada, joined Jan 2004, 2103 posts, RR: 7
Reply 5, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5255 times:

Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

There is much more to the middle east than terrorism. The terrorists are a small fraction of the population, kinda like you who thinks that anything and everything middle eastern is terrorst-related.


User currently offlineCaptaink From Mexico, joined May 2001, 5109 posts, RR: 12
Reply 6, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 5252 times:

Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

 no 

I like like the point that was made that the cost of oil would have gone up so high, that they would have made alot of money on it. But what will happen to the rest of us without the middle east's oil? We better start putting more focus on alternative energy sources.



There is something special about planes....
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 5242 times:

Quoting Photopilot (Reply 3):
By the time oil finally runs out in the Mid East, it will be hundreds of dollars per barrel and the Arabs will have so much money that they will have BOUGHT the USA. Every major company, the stock markets, etc, will be controlled by foreign countries.

As it will go this is point one. The ME will have been paid very large sums of money and assuming there is not a major change in systems or the US defaults on debt, they will be in a good financial position.

Quoting Captaink (Reply 6):
I like like the point that was made that the cost of oil would have gone up so high, that they would have made alot of money on it. But what will happen to the rest of us without the middle east's oil? We better start putting more focus on alternative energy sources.

And this is point two, if you are worried about the ME owning most assets in the west, now think how the west is going to function without cheap oil. There will be some oil, but it will be much more expensive, in say year 2000 terms when oil was about USD25, alternative are likely to be about USD75. Now that "cheap oil" IS USD75, multiply that by some factor close to 3.

The main downside for the ME is that after oil and gas its natural resources seem to be small, for example, they have as remarkably little coal as they have remarkably much oil. But they do have a lot of sun. The Saudis have been busy with solar power for a while. Probably look to the ME to advance the integration of solar power in a major way.

It will be interesting times. Just remember the REAL returns on the second half of the oil reserves will be a lot more than that on the first half.


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13767 posts, RR: 61
Reply 8, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5234 times:
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Quoting Kdtwflyer (Thread starter):
What do you think will happen to middle eastern nations after oil is depleted significantly, say by 2075?

You make the mistake of assuming that the change in the economies of the Middle East nations is based on oil running out - but never address the question of "What if one day... we no longer needed their oil?"

Oil is actually quite plentiful. It's just the easy-to-get-at stuff that is becoming scarce. Because prices are where they are, two things will happen in the not-too-distant future:

  • Sources of oil that have always had prohibitively high cost to develop now become profitable at these higher prices, and will be brought to market

  • High prices are forcing an unprecedented amount of investment and research into alternative fuels, which will one day replace oil


  • Both of which will inevitably lead to the industrialized world thumbing their nose at OPEC at some point.

    So tell me - what happens THEN, when the only commodity of value that the Middle East has....suddenly has little value or demand in the market?



    "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
    User currently offlinePulkovokiwi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 9, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 5222 times:

    They will still be as rich as hell living off their joint ventures with the Bush/Cheney cartel  Smile

    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 10, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5198 times:

    The only thing that has kept successful ME countries going is oil and tourism which are funded by the oil. Even the tourism is reduced to UAE and other such countires. Until Saudi, Qutar, Syria, Lebanon, etc. realize that the free market (instead of the Islamic market) is the only way to run a country, then they will all be backwater.

    User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3509 posts, RR: 9
    Reply 11, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5181 times:

    Quoting MDorBust (Reply 2):
    They'll blame their new found poverty on the west and use it as an excuse for terrorism.

    As though Western powers have had nothing to do with setting back progress in the Middle East...



    Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 12, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5173 times:

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 22):

    As though Western powers have had nothing to do with setting back progress in the Middle East...

    Orientalism has long been complained about by Moslems for the reduction of industrialization in the ME, but this should be mainly attributed towards Islam and the anti-capitilast nature of occidentalism.


    User currently offlinePulkovokiwi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 13, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5168 times:

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 25):

    Get it right it does NOT in 2006 have any reserves of oil. None. None. None.


    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 14, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5161 times:

    Quoting Pulkovokiwi (Reply 26):
    Get it right it does NOT in 2006 have any reserves of oil. None. None. None.



    Quoting Pulkovokiwi (Reply 19):
    Absolute nonsense! Look at Dubai it doesnt have any oil and has the fastest growing airline in the world.Qatar is embracing tourism as well. Your anti Arab lack of logic is tedious.

    You failed to mention that their entire economy is built upon oil sales from the past. It is very clever of you to omit pertinent information! Smile


    User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3509 posts, RR: 9
    Reply 15, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5161 times:

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 23):

    Orientalism has long been complained about by Moslems for the reduction of industrialization in the ME, but this should be mainly attributed towards Islam and the anti-capitilast nature of occidentalism.

    Keep in mind that historically, Western powers have made great strides for control over Middle Eastern oil. The U.S. backed overthrow of the democratically elected Mossadegh administration (who dared to assert that Iran's oil belonged to Iran) during the 1950s is a good example. I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    Reading that aloud sounded a bit scatterbrained, but I hope the point was made.



    Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 16, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5155 times:

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 28):
    I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    I agree with this statement. However, I would add my opinion that as much as Westen investors are hesitant to invest in the ME (with the exception of Dubai, UAE, and Saudi) many ME country's and their populace have the same apprehension towards having foreign investors. I agree that a "more egalitarian" structure would help to incubate a productive economy, but a "egalitarian societal structure" is impossible in the area at the present moment. We can argue whose fault that is all night, but it is the truth that for the next decade trading and the economies in the area will be perversly corrupt.


    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 17, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5152 times:

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 28):
    I don't think it's completely fair to suggest that Moslem societies have an inert hesitation towards Western capitalism, nor do I think it's far to suggest that such a hesitation is fundamentally wrong, although I do think that many Middle Eastern nations could stand to benefit from more egalitarian societal structures than they seem to be pursuing today.

    At times, it was inherent in Moslem culture to ignore capitalistic ventures on a grand scale. I.E., while European explorers were looking for gold and treasure, Moslem explorers were looking to expand the knowledge of Allah. True European explorers would claim that they were in fact missionaries, but it was proven time and time again that material interests proved stronger than theoligical.

    Another point is that fact that upon the beginning of the Mongolian Empire, the trade routes to Asia from Europe were closed. This was later continued by the Ottoman Empire to a great extent in both directions of trading for profit because of the involvement of Kafir's.


    User currently offlineGunsontheroof From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3509 posts, RR: 9
    Reply 18, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5144 times:

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 30):
    At times, it was inherent in Moslem culture to ignore capitalistic ventures on a grand scale. I.E., while European explorers were looking for gold and treasure, Moslem explorers were looking to expand the knowledge of Allah. True European explorers would claim that they were in fact missionaries, but it was proven time and time again that material interests proved stronger than theoligical.

    Another point is that fact that upon the beginning of the Mongolian Empire, the trade routes to Asia from Europe were closed. This was later continued by the Ottoman Empire to a great extent in both directions of trading for profit because of the involvement of Kafir's.

    These are particularly interesting historical points that I think warrant further scrutiny, although I will point out that much of this history transpires before the "official" rise of capitalism.  Wink

    We should keep in mind that at one point in history , the Islamic world was quite advanced in comparison with the Western world. Can any of the factors that caused this to change also be attributed to an alleged apprehension to Westernized free market economies in the Islamic world?

    I'm too tired to reflect on this, so I'm off to bed. I'll see what the rest of you come up with tomorrow...



    Next Flight: 9/17 BFI-BFI
    User currently offlineAerospaceFan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 19, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5140 times:

    Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 9):
    Oil is actually quite plentiful. It's just the easy-to-get-at stuff that is becoming scarce. Because prices are where they are, two things will happen in the not-too-distant future:

    I would tend to agree. There are areas in western Canada, for example, that contain vast reserves of oil that have been uneconomical to exploit, but that may become so in the future. Further, the U.S. apparently has similar "reserves" that have not been used because importing and refining imported oil has been, thus far, cheaper.

    The old joke about the depletion of global oil reserves is that urgent predictions that oil supplies will be completely exhausted in a mere matter of years have been made -- for decade after decade after decade.

    Regarding comments on Dubai, while I am in general agreement with Fumanchewd that modern capitalism, in all its aspects, has not been a hallmark of most areas of the Middle East (with the notable exception of Israel and a few other countries), I do think that Dubai stands as a relative bright star in that region regardless of the source of its wealth. I believe that its openness to innovation, on some level, tends to bode well for the cultures of that region given the presumption of other favorable circumstances for which one can hope.

    The Middle East as a whole, as Fumanchewd may agree, nevertheless suffers from vast and ingrained poverty that the undoubted existence of higher strata of society in that area nevertheless cannot conceal. Tragically, there is also a sense of grievance that often misdirects the energies of its people, whose high intelligence and innate abilities are ill-served accordingly. The threat of grass-roots revolution of a religio-economic kind is quite real and there are great challenges it must conquer before it can prosper in the manner typified in the West.

    [Edited 2006-08-15 11:25:10]

    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 20, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5120 times:

    Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 33):
    The Middle East as a whole, as Fumanchewd may agree, nevertheless suffers from vast and ingrained poverty that the undoubted existence higher strata of society in that area nevertheless cannot conceal. Tragically, there is also a sense of grievance that often misdirects the energies of its people, whose high intelligence and innate abilities are ill-served accordingly.

    Of course this is true. In any society poverty breathes upon ignorance and the cycle is, unfortunately, perpetual. The question always is, what will break it?


    User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 21, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5114 times:

    Depends on so many things, take global warming, imagine if the average temperature in large parts of ME during 2075 period of april-september average +55-60C in the shade compared with +30-50C today,
    it makes it very difficult to be outdoor and many inhabitants have to go
    to cooler places like South Africa or elsewhere. Also depends on water supply,
    will Tigris and Eufrat dry out due to climate change?


    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 22, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5114 times:

    Quoting Gunsontheroof (Reply 32):
    These are particularly interesting historical points that I think warrant further scrutiny, although I will point out that much of this history transpires before the "official" rise of capitalism.

    Check out the Italians during the time, and you might be suprised.


    User currently offlineAerospaceFan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 23, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5114 times:

    Quoting Fumanchewd (Reply 35):
    Of course this is true. In any society poverty breathes upon ignorance and the cycle is, unfortunately, perpetual. The question always is, what will break it?

    I think that the person who knows the solution would surely deserve a Nobel Prize. Alas, I am not that person.

    [Edited 2006-08-15 11:36:53]

    User currently offlineFumanchewd From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
    Reply 24, posted (8 years 4 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5110 times:

    Quoting AerospaceFan (Reply 38):

    I think that the person who knows the solution would surely deserve a Nobel Prize. Alas, I am not that person.

    I think that only Carrot Top has the insight to settle this terrible polemic. Wink


    25 Post contains images AerospaceFan : No doubt with the able assistance of that greatest of philosophers, Ricky Bobby of Talledega fame.  [Edited 2006-08-15 11:45:40]
    26 Vc10 : What I do not understand, is that this huge developement in the Gulf States seems to depend on the production of fresh water from sea water by using h
    27 LTBEWR : Another compounding issue in the Middle East is the huge growth of population. Faith beliefs not only by Muslims, but also by Orthodox Jews that make
    28 Post contains images Emirates773ER : You have things mixed up here, birth control is not considered immoral in Islam infact it is used widely in all countries. By the way QR332, you have
    29 QR332 : Excellent point, one which I have no idea about... I really don't know how they would handle the issue, my guess is that if they do develop fully, th
    30 MDorBust : Yippie, one sentence and it's off to the personal insults. And now for a reality check. There will always be terrorists in the middle east. They will
    31 Post contains links Baroque : The thread posed an interesting question, not least in that it demanded an answer as to what happens to the rest of the world. I cannot quite see why
    32 HAWK21M : PEACE. regds MEL
    33 ME AVN FAN : Middle East after Oil RJpieces From United States, joined Nov 2003, 5834 posts, RR: 39Reply 1, posted Tue Aug 15 2006 04:56:59 UTC+2 and read 445 time
    34 AirxLiban : We're talking primarily of Gulf states here...but my opinion of the situation is that at the time when oil wealth starts to decline permanently, count
    35 ME AVN FAN : Most of the countries in question DID upgrade education, infrastructure and a variety of industries and services, ranging from mechanical manufacturi
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