Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3137 times:
Since we're just over 24 hours out from when we start hearing the results, it's time to start gearing up.
From all indications, the House is going to fall to the Dems-some say by as many as a 20 Majority. I'm not convinced of that yet, but if everything falls right for the Dems, that's what could happen.
The interest, hoestly, is in the Senate, where the Dems COULD take control. At best for the GOP, they're going to keep a razor-thin majority in the Senate. The key races seem to be in Missouri, Tennessee, New Jersey and Virginia. Of those three, the Dems are seemingly ahead in 3 of those 4, with Tennessee in the "soft" column for the GOP, although that seat is looking more secure for the GOP. The GOP looks destined to lose Senate seats in Ohio and Pennsylvania.
Post your races here-House, Senate, Governorships, any ballot issues.
Bushpilot From South Africa, joined Jul 2007, 0 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3123 times:
In AK, Govenor is to close to call, upstart good looking GOP candidate Sarah Palin and former two term governor Tony Knowles.
I think, our congressional race will turn out closer than currently predicted. GOP Don Young will win, but DEM. Diane Benson will make a dent in his votes.
Ballot measure no. 1 to shorten the state legislative session to 90 days, I am voting no, but not sure how that will turn out.
BM no. 2 to tax a billion dollars a year for petroleum companies no developing the natural gas pipeline will most likely fail. For anyone interested. Here is a picture of our GOP Milf Candidate Sarah Palin.
DesertJets From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 7856 posts, RR: 14
Reply 3, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3117 times:
Up in my neck of the woods (New York) I either have races that are expected to be landslides (Governor and Senate), or have incumbents that are not being contested, which is the case for my state assembly and senate seats. And partially the case for my Congressional district (NY-27th FWIW), where the Democratic candidate appears to be a crackpot.
The only race(s) of interest are for NY Attorney General, between Andrew Cuomo and Pirro... haven't paid attention to the polls, so I don't know how close it is supposed to be. The other one is for state comptroller, and only because the incumbent is embroiled in scandal... though he may well still win re-election.
So despite the hoopla over the possibilty of both the House and Senate switching parties, for the majority of Americans our incumbents will be back in office come January. Largely due to the fact that they are not being contested or have a viable opponent. Regardless of whether or not they are doing a good job.
Stop drop and roll will not save you in hell. --- seen on a church marque in rural Virginia
Dtwclipper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3114 times:
MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) over Dick DeVos No Change
MI Sen. Debbie Stabenow (D) over Mike Bouchard No Change
MI 11th Thadeaus McCotter (R) over Tony Trupiano No Change
MI State House (20) Marc Couriveau (D) over Mark Abbo Open seat
Walter747 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 1440 posts, RR: 4
Reply 5, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3108 times:
yea, things are pretty tense up here in RI with this whole thing about the Indian Casino. The Narragansett Indians want to build a casino with Harrahs from LAS. The RI law states that we can not open any indian casinos, so if this passed we would have to change the constitution to allow it. People say that it isnt right becauseit will run the dog track and the high li out of business. And there are these google earth commercails that keep saying its across from a preschool and through the woods there is an elementary school. It's the stupidest commercials you've ever seen. Personally i dont care if they get it or not. I think it will pas because i know a lot of people who want it.
KFLLCFII From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 3367 posts, RR: 28
Reply 8, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3092 times:
Quoting DrDeke (Reply 7): When do you expect the results will start coming in and being made available to the public after this election?
As soon as polling places begin to close, and the data is processed, we'll begin to see the results coming through within a very short period of time. Sometimes within an hour from electronic polling places, and generally a little longer from manual polling places...
"About the only way to look at it, just a pity you are not POTUS KFLLCFII, seems as if we would all be better off."
Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3093 times:
In Ohio, Issue 3, which would allow slot machines in several locations in the state, raising money for education, looks like it'll go down to defeat.
Issue 4 and 5 are confusing issues for many Ohioans. Issue 4 is a Constitutional Amendment, supported by big tobacco, which would actually roll back some local anti-smoking measures in about 25 cities. Issue 5 would actually curb smoking further in most establishments. If issue 4 and 5 pass, Issue 4 becomes the law. I plan to vote No on 4 and Yes on 5.
Races: Democrat Ted Strickland seems on his way to an easy victory for Governor over Republican candidate (and extremist extrodinaire) Ken Blackwell; Rep. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, looks like a lock to oust Senator Mike DeWine from office, as he's 6 to 10 points ahead in every poll; there are a lot of endangered Repubicans in the House including Mary Schmitt, the one who called out John Murtha last year over Iraq.
Ohio could well have a Dem majority in the House for the first time in years.
Congress, 2nd district (Oct 29th, Retuers/Zogby):
Rob Simmons (R, i) - 47%
Joe Courtney (D) - 42%
Undecided - 5%
Congress, 4th district (Oct 28, Reuters/Zogby):
Diane Farrell (D) - 51%
Christopher Shays (R, i) - 44%
Undecided - 4%
Congress, 5th district (Oct 29th, Research 2000):
Christopher Murphy (D) - 46%
Nancy Johnson (R, i) - 43%
Undecided - 11%
The three congressional races have had razor-thin poll margins as of late and could theoretically flip either way. The other two districts (1st, John Larson; 3rd, Rosa DeLauro), both held by Democrats, are no-contest.
Dw747400 From United States of America, joined Aug 2001, 1272 posts, RR: 1
Reply 11, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3050 times:
Here in MD the two major races are very competitive.
For US Senate, Republican Lt Governor Michael Steele has pulled roughly even with Representative Ben Cardin. This seat was thought to be safe thanks to anti-Bush sentiment and the fact Dems outnumber GOPers 2 to 1 in this blue state. Cardin contends he always thought the race would be close, but most people seem to think that his campaign was caught by surprise. Cardin did face a difficult primary which took funds, meaning that he entered the general election with less cash on hand than Steele, despite having raised a similar amount. Steele has also been endorsed by many prominent black politicians and religious leaders who say they are "fed up" with the Democrats taking them for granted.
In short--this one is going to be close! I'd say analyst are leaning towards Cardin, but it is far from a consensus.
For Governor, the election is also a bit closer than expected. Incumbent Bob Ehrlich is very popular having maintained a 50+% approval rating over the past four years as the state's first Republican governor in a generation. Nonetheless, surveys indicate as many as one in five people who approve of Ehrlich's performance may vote for rival Martin O'Malley simply to register their disappointment with the GOP. O'Malley, currently Mayor of Baltimore, is charismatic but many doubt his effectiveness as a leader. Baltimore schools are failing, and the murder rate is the second highest in the nation. Still, many of the Democrats who crossed party lines to vote for Ehrlich are hesitating because of national politics, giving O'Malley an opening.
Though this race could go both ways, most analysts are leaning towards and Ehrlich victory. His popularity, combined with the famous (or infamous if you are a democrat) republican get-out-the-vote machinery is likely to put him over the edge.
Now that the somewhat objective part of the post is done--
Personally, I strongly support Governor Ehrlich--looking at Baltimore today makes me cringe. O'Malley spent more city money last year on building a hotel (that couldn't get commerical financing because it had a lousy projected return) than on public schools, while the Governor increase education funding tremendously--including the largest increase in higher education funding per capita in the nation. O'Malley's crime record is abysmal, with only minor improvements in violent crime. We still had 269 murders last year--roughly 8x the murder rate of New York City. Simply put, I don't trust O'Malley.
I'm just upset that national politics have made things so tough on a good, remarkably honest, and dedicated Governor!
Copaair737 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3029 times:
Conrad Burns will win in Montana. That fat, flat topped guy is providing an ample challenge, but Burns will survive.
Back home in Cali.....Arnold will win.
No other surprises, I think Pombo holds on as well.
Piercey From Sweden, joined Nov 2005, 2233 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3027 times:
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 9): In Ohio, Issue 3, which would allow slot machines in several locations in the state, raising money for education, looks like it'll go down to defeat.
good. If your going to allow it, allow it to all, not to the highest bidder.
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 9): Issue 4 and 5 are confusing issues for many Ohioans. Issue 4 is a Constitutional Amendment, supported by big tobacco, which would actually roll back some local anti-smoking measures in about 25 cities. Issue 5 would actually curb smoking further in most establishments. If issue 4 and 5 pass, Issue 4 becomes the law. I plan to vote No on 4 and Yes on 5.
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 9): Races: Democrat Ted Strickland seems on his way to an easy victory for Governor over Republican candidate (and extremist extrodinaire) Ken Blackwell; Rep. Sherrod Brown, a Democrat, looks like a lock to oust Senator Mike DeWine from office, as he's 6 to 10 points ahead in every poll
Thank God! Maybe if we let dems take the state and a GOP become mayor of CLE, something good could happen!!!
You also forgot issue 2. Issue 2 allows for raise in minimum wage. Sounds good, right? Wrong. It also has something tacked on that an employee can ask for the salary for any other employee @ his/her company, and be legally allowed to see it! No on Issue 2 (and Falcon can edit what ever I screwed up :P )
Well I believe it all is coming to an end. Oh well, I guess we are gonna pretend.
SFOMEX From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3027 times:
This is the race I'm following right now:
Michael S. Steele, Republican candidate for the US Senate in Maryland. This man's victory is the best thing that could happen to Maryland and the GOP. An energetic, moderate conservative African American Senator would be a dream come true.
N174UA From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 994 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3000 times:
Here in Washington state:
Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA) vs. Mike McGavick (I actually met him tonight at the Seahawks/Raiders Monday Night Football game!)
-Cantwell is expected to win
Closest race is in the 8th District, which isn't my district
Rep. Dave Reichert (R-WA) vs. Darcy Burner. (Yep, met Reichert at the game tonight, too)
- Land use
- Alternative Energy
- A few others that don't stick in my mind
Pretty low-key out here. I voted all GOP, knowing my vote won't count for much, if at all, especially here in blue Washington. But, at least I get to keep complaining, since I did at least participate...
Gilligan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2994 times:
Quoting Falcon84 (Reply 9): Ohio could well have a Dem majority in the House for the first time in years.
You forgot to add, "thank you Governor Taft". I had always thought the Taft family was pretty poor at governing, Bob Taft has completely reinforced my opinion. Hell, Governor Gilligan is probably the only one to surpass him on the idiot scale and that's only because he brought the personal income tax to bear in that state. Shame the GOP couldn't resurrect Jim Rhodes from the dead to run again!
Quoting Mdsh00 (Reply 13): Looks like the voter intimidation is already underway:
Like to see proof that it wasn't a crank call before I put any stock in that report. When I hear of hundreds of people getting that same call then I would start to worry that it is an organized effort.
In VA if the dem wins it's because Allen has run just an atrocious campaign. As noted above, De Wine is about to pay for Taft's sins. I still say, as I have for over a year now, that the dems will take control of both houses. It's not because they have better ideas, for if they do they've certainly failed to share them with anybody, especially the voters. Dick Armey said it best in a column run over the weekend in the Houston Chronicle, here's a link to one site carrying it.
Here in Texas, where I voted last week thanks to early voting, Gov Perry seems safe as does Sen Hutchinson. There is an inkling that the dem running in Delays old district may be in for a rude surprise. Polls show the GOP write in candidate to be doing pretty well in the polls. Elsewhere around here it will be the same old same old as nobody else has managed to shoot themselves in the foot. It was fun watching Kinky and Strayhorn though.
Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (8 years 9 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 2970 times:
Quoting Gilligan (Reply 21): I still say, as I have for over a year now, that the dems will take control of both houses
I'm still not quite sure about that. I think the House is nearly a foregone conclusion now-the only question is how large a majority the Dems will have there. In the Senate, the Dems pretty much have Ohio and Pennsylvania, it seems. It'll come down to those 4 races that have been tight: Virginia, New Jersey, Tennessee and Missouri. In those, New Jersey seems it'll go to the Dems, and Tennessee to the GOP-although polls this week show it a bit tighter than last week. If Virginia and Missouri go to the Dems, then they'll get their Majority, I think. The Dems are ahead, albeit slightly, in both, but it's too close to call in those.