Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12165 posts, RR: 35 Posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1798 times:
Just as a bit of fun, I thought it might be interesting to run a little poll to predict the results of the general election on the 24th. It's going to be one of the most interesting elections in years and it's a very tight race so far.
(For those unfamiliar with Irish politics, our parliament - the Dail (pronounced Daw-il) - has 166 seats, so 83 are needed for a majority; it's a long time since we've had single party government and the current govt is a coalition between FF - Fianna Fail - and the Progressive Democrats, which between them have about 84 or 85 seats.)
For my part, I'm predicting the following:
FF 70, FG 48, Lab 26, SF 7, Green 6, PD 2, Ind 7.
With these results, the proposed FG/Labour/Green coalition can't work, so I see an FF/Labour coalition, but with Labour insisting on someone other than Bertie (Bertie Ahern TD, our current "Taoiseach", or PM) as leader.
Over to you folks and please, like the Irish aviation threads, this is only a bit of fun, so please, no hostility unfriendly comments. Just your numbers prediction and how you see the next govt shaping up. Come the 26/27th, we can see who was closest to the mark.
Here's where my thoughts differ. I think the Greens have come on leaps and bounds over the past while, and will be pivotal in the forming of the next Govt. Trevor Seargent has impressed me, and their policies (bar any aviation opposition!) are more or less compatible with my thoughts e.g. I like their focus on an integrated transport system, something which FF/PDs seem destined NEVER to achieve. I like their clean politics stance, which seems to be in opposition to FG in recent weeks. Plus, with the emergence of environmental issues as one of (if not the most) important challenges we face today, who better to implement change then the specialists themselves? I'm going to propose an increase for the Greens at the expense of the PDs.
From a business perspective (which is more than likely where my future career will lie), I've always been somewhat in tandem with the PDs policies. I like Mary Harney for her endeavours (however successful she's been, she's tried). I cannot abide the "bulldog" as a politician and a man with such an important post and responsibility. I think he's erratic in his outbursts and a little too offense orientated in his demeanour for my liking. The PDs have been severely damaged these past few years and maybe it's time for them to take a time out to re-evaluate their objectives.
The debate tonight was fantastic. Pat Rabbite wiped the floor in my opinion, and I think Gerry Adams and Michael (what a surprise) didn't do themselves any favours.
Tomorrow night, however, is when the real fun begins!!!
My prediction, therefore, is as follows:
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 2, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 1777 times:
It really is getting interesting now, and unless something radically happens FF are going to lose heavily. They were very, very lucky through good vote management to get the 81 seats they did the last time round, and they won't get anywhere near that again. Even last week I would have thought they'd get around 75 seats, but it'd be very surprised to see them getting that now. Never say never, however, and there's a good week left to go. Expect all the stops to be pulled-out, and no doubt FF have a big warchest to unelash in a last-minute blitz.
They are fighting a really bad campaign, and it's showing now with them getting rattled, and that's not going to win any votes. Even Bertie seems to have lost the fight. It looks like the Tony Blair/Bill Clinton endorsement has backfired, which must really demoralise them further.
It really is impossible to predict seats, but FG are going to do well. Enda Kenny is on a roll and is beginning to sound like he finally believes he's going to be the nest taoiseach.
Labour are going to do well, but Sinn Fein will probably make some inroads into their vote. SF have a bottomless pit of money and if they are going to gain votes it will probably be at the expense of Labour. The polls are predicting up to 10 seats for them, which would be a disaster for the country. They are the last people you'd want to see holding the balance of power.
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 1): Pat Rabbite wiped the floor in my opinion, and I think Gerry Adams and Michael (what a surprise) didn't do themselves any favours.
Sorry, I couldn't disagree more! Rabbite held his own but McDowell stole the show! It's rare that you see Adams stuck for words, but McDowell's comments on Adams's home and the Northern Back and on the Colombia Three had him rattled. Adams seems out of his depth when talking about politics in the Republic. McDowell had Sargent as well as Adams on the defensive. After this showing, I'm prepared to forgive McDowell his arrogance. He's a very formidable debater, and tonights debate can only do him good. He keeps reminding us that they were only on 2% the last time around yet ended-up with eight seats. Also, he can afford to alienate people as he's only targeting a small minority of voters.
I'm not going to give any figures, this is the most exciting election we've had for years and is just so hard to call. As for myself, I've voted for them all, apart from SF, in the past, but while Bertie's still chief FF will be getting my vote, and the number 2 goes to the PDs. I'll study the candidates and may vote tactially after that. I know the present government made a hash of a lot of things, but I trust them on income tax and the 2% flat rate of PRSI is a real vote winner as far as I'm concerned. I don't know why they are not screaming it from the rooftops.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12165 posts, RR: 35 Reply 3, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 1768 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 1): Tomorrow night, however, is when the real fun begins!!!
Frankly, I was disappointed in last night's debate (not least because I thought Bertie and Enda were going to be debating, but as you say, that's tonight. I thought Pat Rabbitte was the best of the four in terms of debating. I thought Gerry was poor, constantly telling people "we believe people have rights". Thanks Gerry! I also thought his responses on free enterprise were poor.
It is certainly going to be the most interesting election in ages. I am really looking forward to Friday week, for the count. I live in Jersey, so I'll probably have RTE radio through Sky and I'll be logging onto Aertel and Breakingnews.ie ... it really will be fascinating!
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 2): but McDowell stole the show! It's rare that you see Adams stuck for words, but McDowell's comments on Adams's home and the Northern Back and on the Colombia
Ok, that's a valid point which I forgot about when making my predictions last night. I still maintain that McDowell didn't exactly say anything radical last night which would reaffirm people's faith in him or the PDs or indeed win over any doubtful voters. He did, however, as you said, put that 'thing' in his place. Adams came across so arrogant, hypocritical and, at times, patronising towards the other three when he lectured them on the 'rights' of the people. I wasn't too amused that the debate got sidetracked to these affairs once again (although it might have served to remind the electorate just where he came from). Adams looked, at times, clueless about some issues and kept reverting back to issues he was comfortable with (which had no relevance to the questions asked) like the North, rights of the people, etc.
I nearly split myself laughing when Pat called McDowell a menopausal Paris Hilton'! I can't say that I've ever been a Labour fan but he was impressive.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 6, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 1761 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 5): Adams looked, at times, clueless about some issues and kept reverting back to issues he was comfortable with (which had no relevance to the questions asked) like the North, rights of the people
He showed himself up to be a one-issue debater, and totally out of his depth talking about the economy in the Republic. Sinn Féin tend to repeat the same mantras over and over. It's like someone pushing a button in their brain: button A for one answer, button B for anohter, and so on. You never feel you are going anywhere with them.
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 5): nearly split myself laughing when Pat called McDowell a menopausal Paris Hilton'
That seems to be the quote which stands out most. Rabbite is very good at the one-liners, and he claims he made it up on the hoof: I don't believe it for a minute, just like McDowell's comment about the left, the hard left and the leftovers.
Can't see the same fun tonight though, Ahern and Kenny will be doing their best not to put their foot in it. No doubt they are both shitting bricks for the day!
Rineanna From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 13 Reply 7, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1757 times:
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 6): don't believe it for a minute, just like McDowell's comment about the left, the hard left and the leftovers.
It's the same with the "I think Michael is a little too excited by the pole he climbed today" or whatever way he put it! Oh, he was well prepped by his aides in terms of one-liners, but as an analyst on News2 said last night, he's probably the best out of them all for thinking on the spot and retaliating with witty retorts.
In terms of the "left-overs" jab, I think it showed that he didn't come up with it himself seeming that he kept saying it over and over; it sounded well rehearsed!
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 6): Can't see the same fun tonight though, Ahern and Kenny will be doing their best not to put their foot in it. No doubt they are both shitting bricks for the day!
Can you imagine it?! One slip up is all it will take. Whatever about last night in terms of strong speakers/debaters, tonight will be a completely different kettle of fish. Enda doesn't exactly ooze charisma or strong rhetoric, while Bertie.....well Bertie ju-ju-ju-just speaks for himself. Although he was quite impressive the other day when he addressed the House of Lords/Commons.
Rineanna From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 13 Reply 8, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1756 times:
Oh sweet God, Pat Rabbitte just got attacked on Radio1 over his Paris Hilton jibe! Someone e-mailed in (Pat seems to think it was the Fianna Fáil press office) who lambasted him over his choice of words. The e-mailer said that it was poor taste to use menopausal because it referred to older, sick women (!) and they suggested that referring to a B-class celebrity indicated that Pat read certain newspapers i.e tabloids!!!
Pat's response: "It's not my problem if people don't have a sense of humour!"
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 9, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 1755 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 8): Oh sweet God, Pat Rabbitte just got attacked on Radio1 over his Paris Hilton jibe! S
LOL! You're listening to Pat Kenny too. Rabbite is coming across well, and is growing in stature as the campaign proceeds. The menopausal Paris Hilton jibe is going to be used by FFers against him. Menopausal women all over the country are ringing in complaining. He's just turned the argument on it's head by saying it was about McDowell, not menopausal women.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 10, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 1724 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 7): Enda doesn't exactly ooze charisma or strong rhetoric, while Bertie.....well Bertie ju-ju-ju-just speaks for himself. Although he was quite impressive the other day when he addressed the House of Lords/Commons.
I caught most of the debate on radio and only saw ten minutes on TV. Kenny sounded much better on radio and I thought he was winning the debate here, but Ahern seemed more impressive on TV. This happened in the States when Nixon debated Kennedy: people who only heard it on radio thought Nixon won, but viewers went for Kennedy.
Kenny had the taoiseach on the racks over health, and Ahern should really have been better advised here. Trumpeting the successes of the HSE would be seen by most viewers as a joke. He should have just put his hands up and pointed out how difficult reforming the whole structure is, even if it meant alienating the management and workers, who, it has to be said, have to take a large portion of the blame here.
Ahern had Kenny on the racks over taxation, and Kenny seemed to be unprepared for Ahern's jibe about FG's tax reforms benefiting the higher paid.
Kenny was obviously tutored well, but relied too much on anecdotes: one or two would have been fine, but I could smell Carr Communications all over him.
I don't think last night's debate will swing many voters either way.
Rineanna From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 13 Reply 11, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1716 times:
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 10): I caught most of the debate on radio and only saw ten minutes on TV. Kenny sounded much better on radio and I thought he was winning the debate here, but Ahern seemed more impressive on TV. This happened in the States when Nixon debated Kennedy: people who only heard it on radio thought Nixon won, but viewers went for Kennedy.
I wonder how many people listened to it vs. watched it, and whether this will have an affect on people's perception's of the two from now until polling day. I watched it on T.V, and as you said, Bertie came across well....well, both of them came across well to be honest. Enda was a lot more forceful than what he usually is during the Leader's questions in the Dáil (where I find he comes across incredibly weak and lacking any sense of presence). Some commentators that I've heard so far have called a draw on it, but that doesn't exactly mean everyone saw it that way.
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 10): Kenny had the taoiseach on the racks over health, and Ahern should really have been better advised here
He really had no where to run on this one. The pivotal point of this part of the debate was when Bertie tried in vain to list out the 'achievements' of the Govt. in its health policies, and Enda responded with a major failing of the health system for every point that Bertie listed out. I think this was the biggest blow he struck all night.
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 10): Trumpeting the successes of the HSE would be seen by most viewers as a joke
That's exactly it. He could not say one word in favour of the HSE, or there would have been war, and when he tried to put a positive spin on it, he just lacked any real credibility. Miriam kind of gave him a helping hand when she put it to Kenny that the A&E figures have improved this year!
Yes, and Kenny wouldn't respond directly to the accusation regarding the top level of tax payers.
He also put him on the racks over the Gardaí. Kenny wouldn't answer (or couldn't answer) whether he will be providing 2000 extra to the 14000 to be provided at the end of this year, or just 1000 extra with the other 1000 bringing the numbers up to 14000. Kenny didn't look too sure himself.
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 10): Kenny was obviously tutored well, but relied too much on anecdotes
"you tell that to the woman in Longford" "I was talking to a man in Dublin" etc etc he just never stopped, As one commentator said, it was deliberate to show he's a man of the people.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 12, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1713 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 11): "you tell that to the woman in Longford" "I was talking to a man in Dublin" etc etc he just never stopped, As one commentator said, it was deliberate to show he's a man of the people.
He did a lot of talking to people round the country! Another phrase he kept coming out with was "this is not joined-up thinking". If he used it once he used it a dozen times, and that smacks of tutoring. Seeminly he's being tutored by Anton Savage, who is Terry Prone's son. He did a good job, but Kenny overdid it.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12165 posts, RR: 35 Reply 13, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1697 times:
I was listening to it this morning on Newstalk; from what I heard, Bertie seemed to come out best. It's so rare to see Bertie animated and passionate, that it's always impressive to see. He did a fine job and while Enda didn't make an eejit of himself, to my mind Bertie was the better of the two.
I was listening to another radio show yesterday and it suggested that the viewers watching last night's debate could reach levels only previously reached by, among others, the Late Late Toy show! That's what they missed; dolls and remote control cars!
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 14, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 1695 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 13): Bertie seemed to come out best. It's so rare to see Bertie animated and passionate, that it's always impressive to see
Indeed, and when he gets rattled he's at his best. I remember the time he got stuck into Caoimhin O Caoilain in the Dáil over the Northern Bank robbery. He was at his finest. Also there was the time he was accused of taking something like £40,000 in bribes several years ago. The way he denied it you just KNEW it wasn't true.
That's what makes all this murky business over his house very strange. If he did get dig-out, I don't believe it was a lot, and don't consider it a hanging offence.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 16, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 1663 times:
Filtering out the party propagandists, the general reaction to the Ahern/Kenny debate seems to be that Bertie shaded it, but Enda put in a good performance. This is increasingly looking like a case of a government losing the election, rather than the opposition winning.
It is to be sure. I just caught a glimpse on the news of Enda shoutin' like a mad man from a stage in Mayo. In fairness, I haven't seen Bertie as animated like Enda was today during the whole campaign. With the LAB/FG and the FF/PD coalitions so close, the Greens are in quite strong a position to decide the next Govt. I can't see SF being invited into any coalition.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 19, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 1632 times:
Quoting Rineanna (Reply 18): With the LAB/FG and the FF/PD coalitions so close, the Greens are in quite strong a position to decide the next Govt. I can't see SF being invited into any coalition.
The two political correspondents on today's one o'clock news are predicting a FF/Labour coalition, possibly under new party leaders. While FF have no problem with Labour, Pat Rabbitte has painted himself so much into a corner on not going into government with FF, after the election he could find himself in the crazy position of arguging to stay in opposition! So if the party decide to do a deal and he goes, they probably won't do a deal with FF under Bertie's leadership.
Taoiseach Brian Cowen? Jesus! Taoiseach Mary Hanafin???? Oh God . . .
Rineanna From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 13 Reply 20, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1627 times:
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 19): The two political correspondents on today's one o'clock news are predicting a FF/Labour coalition, possibly under new party leaders. While FF have no problem with Labour, Pat Rabbitte has painted himself so much into a corner on not going into government with FF, after the election he could find himself in the crazy position of arguging to stay in opposition! So if the party decide to do a deal and he goes, they probably won't do a deal with FF under Bertie's leadership.
Rabitte certainly made i perfectly clear to Brian Dobson the other day that Bertie was dreaming if he thought they'd go into Govt. with them, so it would have to be under different leader(s).
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 19): the election he could find himself in the crazy position of arguging to stay in opposition!
While Seargent won't give an answer to who they will/won't consider forming a coalition with, Rabbitte, as you said, will have no choice but to step down or to go back on his word should this scenario unfold.
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 19): they probably won't do a deal with FF under Bertie's leadership.
Would Bertie really step down if this happens? I suppose if it meant FF retaining power....
Quoting Braybuddy (Reply 19): Taoiseach Brian Cowen? Jesus! Taoiseach Mary Hanafin???? Oh God . . .
I'd surmise Biffo would be next in line for power.
After their hammering in the local elections in 2004 they are expecting the lowest first-preference vote ever, but with transfers they may not lose as many seats as they privately fear. There will be a lot of sweat lost in the FF party on Friday morning.
Kaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12165 posts, RR: 35 Reply 22, posted (6 years 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 1616 times:
I'm just waiting for international news agencies - particularly the likes of "The Daily Show" in the US - to mention his nickname and what it actually stands for! That'll be fun.
"Big Ignorant F***** From Offaly"
It should be a very interesting day; frankly, I can't wait and I'll be logging onto Aertel and Breakingnews.ie every few minutes on Friday.
Two papers looked at possible cabinets under an FG/Lab/Green coalition and one predicted Trevor Sargent (Greens) as Transport Minister; can you imagine? Eeek! The Sunday Times had Olivia Mitchell, which would be a far better choice; she's quite good on aviation issues.
I listened to Bertie on the 1.00 news on RTE and thought he accounted for himself very well.
Braybuddy From Brazil, joined Aug 2004, 5476 posts, RR: 34 Reply 23, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1609 times:
Quoting Kaitak (Reply 22): I listened to Bertie on the 1.00 news on RTE and thought he accounted for himself very well.
He was back to the cuddly, loveable. stuttering B-B-B-Bertie who wins the votes. Despite being "the cleverest, most devious of them all", he really f****ed up over the timing of the election, but then are we surprised? He's a procrastinator to the last. You would have thought he knew he was painting himself into a corner by holding on to the last minute, therefore playing into the hands of any public servants looking for a pay rise (I'm surprised it was just the nurses). I really expected him to call a snap election months ago when the coast was clear.
Losing this election would brobably be the best thing for FF. They can't stay in power for ever, and a 3-4 year period in opposition would be the shock they need to win the next one. After all, FG/Labour coalitions never run the full five years, so, if they do go into opposion this time, they could even come back with an overall majority the next time round.
Rineanna From Ireland, joined Jan 2007, 880 posts, RR: 13 Reply 24, posted (6 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1595 times:
Please say ye saw the clips of the various leaders on the campaign trail on the 9 o' clock news?!!
Kenny bumped into McDowell and there was the most awkward of silences between them. They traded an insincere "good to see you" followed by awkward laughter!! *cringe*
Then Enda was talking to the reporter and said in the most disgustingly fake accent in relation to FF's chances ................."IN YOUR DREAMS, BABY!!!" . Gift Grub and Knob Nation are going to rip the piss out of him for saying that on Monday!
25 Braybuddy: I missed that, but it's not like McDowell to be stuck for words! It's funny: I know he's doing much better than most people expected in the polls, bu
26 Braybuddy: BERTIE BOUNCES BACK! Monday, 7am: A new poll (possibly the last one of the campaign) shows FF up 5% to 41%! Apparently this is unprecedented for FF in
27 BestWestern: Yes, indeed. I was 'voting for change', as I was very disillusioned with Bertie and FF. I've done my very best to keep up with the current affairs. b
28 Braybuddy: Memo to debaters: if you're going to write notes on your hand, at least keep them out of sight of the cameras! For all his obfuscation and equivocati
29 Rineanna: BURNT! How amateur was that! Could he not have them in front of him on a page like the others had?! Questions and answers was quite unteresting last
30 ME AVN FAN: who is who ? FF = Fianna Fail = Liberals ? FG = Fine Gael = Liberal Social Democrats ? Lab = Labour = Socialists Green = Green = Green PD = ? Ind = ?
31 Rineanna: Labour = Centre left/ Social Democratic http://www.labour.ie/party/ Progressive Democrats = Liberals....particularly in economic matters. http://en.wi
32 ME AVN FAN: - FF = Fianna Fail = Centrists FG = Fine Gael = Centrist Christian Democrats Lab = Labour = Centre-Left Social Democrats Green = Green = Green PD = Pr
33 Braybuddy: GOOD QUESTION!! I think we are probably the only country in the world where the two largest opposing parties are consevative! Both FF and FG are cons
34 Kaitak: Braybuddy has put it very well, so in answer to your question, I'm damned if I know - and I was a member of FF for many years. I always thought of FF
35 ME AVN FAN: thanks to both of you for the explanation. I in the past have read about Irish politics and just wondered about FF and FG, and now see that I actuall
36 Braybuddy: The ironic thing about it all is that, if they ever did decide to coalesce, FF and FG could probably run the country forever! Between them they have
37 Shamrock330: Ok here's my predictions....... FF-67, FG- 54, Lab-22, SF-7, Greens-8, PD-3, Ind-5 Judging from the above I think that the coalition for change will s
38 Braybuddy: Okay, I'll have a go, seeing that everyone else is doing it: FF 71, FG 46, Lab 24, SF 9, Green 9, PD 2, Ind 5. Despite their equivocation, the Greens
39 Rineanna: They'll be singin' through the night at FF HQ if that's all they lose! Exactly. Give them time to re-evaluate themseelves. They'd come back in 4 year
40 Braybuddy: For sure. I could be completely wrong on this, but, while the polls show FG doing well, Enda Kenny just doesn't have charisma or personal appeal. The
41 Rineanna: It'll be absolutely intriguing to find out how FF have fared this time around. There's really two predictions circulating: The first one, which dogge
42 Braybuddy: It is, but thankfully it's not on all his posters. It could be some resurrected from previous elections. I have a funny feeling that there are dirty
43 ABC9: I'd be inclined to agree with your figures Braybuddy, well done, as close to this as makes little difference. By Saturday morning either SF or the Gr
44 Braybuddy: It will be VERY interesting to see if FF go back on their word and are prepared to form a coalition with SF. Would that be the spur for Labour to dit
45 Danny: I am negatively surprised how short sighted some people in Ireland are and how short memory they have. They don't seem to remember where their country
46 Kaitak: No, not luscious Liz - de darlin' of de Dail - losing her seat; tell me it ain't going to happen! If it does, I want one of her election posters for
47 Danny: Debate - yes. Change - in a few areas (healthcare) but not in general. Even though the current government may not be perfect you should always ask yo
48 Smokeyrosco: Met My local FF TD outside the Polling station on the way out (he was a bit late) I voted FF, I figure I'm happy with my current situation and I don't
49 Braybuddy: If there is a change of government, this will be a more a case of FF/PDs losing the election rather than FG/Lab/Greens winning it. The three things w
50 Rineanna: The polls are closed.....let the counting begin! A high turn out has been reported. I wonder is this good or bad for FF/PD?
51 Braybuddy: I think a high poll ususally means that FF is getting its voters out in droves. When I left the polling station at 8.30 I was told the percentage vot
52 Danny: Election 2007: Exit poll good news for FF http://www.rte.ie/news/2007/0525/election1.html The experts have been crunching the numbers all night, and t
53 Braybuddy: If, as like the last time round, this poll is accurate to within just over 1% of the actual vote, this really is an amazing result. Nobody, even thei
54 Rineanna: The PDs are, as expected, getting creamed. Only McDowell and Harney are still in the running and they're not even safe. It was muted on the RTE covera
55 Braybuddy: They are even talking about an OVERALL MAJORITY for Fianna Fáil. The corks must already be popping in Lower Mount Street!
56 Shamrock330: Yup , unfortunately Kaitak , it looks like de darlin of the dail is taking big hits. ( pardon the pun!) In all seriousness though it looks like Liz i
57 Braybuddy: Latest predictions put FF between 78 and 83 seats, and the PDs possibly 3. At least the independents aren't doing well.
58 Braybuddy: Pundits are now revising FF''s seats downward slightly. They've got just under 40% of the first preference vote, and on that figure 79 seats are optom
59 Rineanna: The results are flying in thick and fast now. FF going well. Martin Cullen just re-elected in Waterford. A question, however, will there be a change o
60 Kaitak: I'm just listening to RTE Radio here in Jersey! The Dublin Central constituency (de Great One's constituency); he got over 12,000, whereas his No2 got
61 Braybuddy: An election is usually time for a reshuffle. TDs who performed well will be rewarded, while ones who performed poorly will be given their P45. If the
62 Kaitak: It now looks as if Michael McDowell is out!! The SF candidate's vote in Dublin SE has been distributed and Gormley is about 1,000 ahead of him; his on
63 Rineanna: That question was just put to the woman herself and, of course, she wouldn't give a definite answer and said that it's not her decision to make, whic
64 Braybuddy: That's not happening. He's in serious trouble. It's an interesting prospect. Harney has just been interviewed and said she'd like to stick with healt
65 Braybuddy: McDowell has just conceded. He's bowing out of politics altogether.
66 Rineanna: Just saw his interview. Christ Almighty. It's still sinking in that he's actually FINISHED with politics. From being the leader of a Govt. party and
67 Kaitak: I guess he's had enough, but at the end of the day, you can't say he hasn't had a successful political career - Attorney General and later, Minister f
68 Rineanna: Dermot Ahern seems the most likely to me. Can't see Hanafin moving from education just yet. Could we see Conor Lenihan being promoted to fill Harney'
69 Braybuddy: It was strange, but then Michael was never one to do things by halves. I hated him for his arrogance, but admired him for his courage. So that's two
70 Rineanna: Sorry, I meant Brian Lenihan. I just discovered that there are two Lenihan brothers! Lovely Liz is just on now and she said theat it possibly ould ha
71 Braybuddy: He's been gone before. I wouldn't rule anything out with that man. It really is the most extaordinary election. FF are the only real winners here. NO
72 Rineanna: Oh for feck sake, I wish they'd all adjourn for the night and recommence the counting tomorrow. I'm addicted to the coverage and can't go to bed till
73 Braybuddy: I know . . . I fell asleep listening to it. The Star this morning leads with "Happy Bertie!". The Irish Times has dug-out a quote by George Colley fr
74 Rineanna: Ya there's war over that. Apparently the Fitzpatrick camp aren't too happy with how Bertie encouraged voters in a constituency letter to order their
75 Kaitak: The one thing that really impressed me on radio is that people - with very few exceptions - have been very kind to each other. I referred to Enda and
76 Braybuddy: It seems to be a tradition that you don't knock a man when he's down. Pat Rabbitte's tribute to Michael McDowell was a delight, coming from someone w
77 Braybuddy: The last seat was filled in Laois-Offaly at 1am this morning, and the make-up of the 30th Dail will be as follows: I think it's safe to say that none
78 Braybuddy: And finally . . . It's a well-known fact among scientists that, if there is ever a global nuclear war, only two living creatures will survive: cockroa
79 Rineanna: oooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooooohhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhhh nas-ass-ty! He is our future Taoiseach after all!
80 Braybuddy: Will the voters go for "Lips" Cowen? I wouldn't bet on it! He's a great performer, but is it possible to make him cut his hair and wear a tie? Someho