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Al-Qaeda Now An Ideology?  
User currently offlineMbj-11 From Jamaica, joined Aug 2000, 386 posts, RR: 1
Posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1433 times:

Not one to be bothered with the constant rant about Al-Qaeda and their issues, however I was stunned to hear on the radio yesterday a replay of an interview with the NYC police chief following the arrest of four Caribbean nationals on terrorist charges that Al-Qaeda is now an ideology. Mind you, I got tired of the whole Al-Qaeda talk, but when did it become an ideology? I kinda tuned out the whole thing, but I never knew it became an ideology or is this an assumption on his part.


Jesus is the Christ and he alone saves
18 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21462 posts, RR: 53
Reply 1, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1405 times:

Quoting Mbj-11 (Thread starter):
Mind you, I got tired of the whole Al-Qaeda talk, but when did it become an ideology?

It always was. Anybody with a bit of knowledge about them has said that for years already.

Mistaking it for a conventional military enemy was the beginning of the downfall of "The War Against Terror" (TWAT) as declared by the Bush administration.


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 2, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1386 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 1):
Mistaking it for a conventional military enemy was the beginning of the downfall of "The War Against Terror" (TWAT) as declared by the Bush administration.

For another point of view ... exposing it and fighting it the open for all the world to see its only tactic ... Terror.. Al Qada offers no future .. only death... and slavery . The US and Allies are at the throat of this ideal , nothing is settled and know one can be sure of the outcome but we are forcing a choice to be made.


Just another point of view ,



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21462 posts, RR: 53
Reply 3, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1376 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 2):
For another point of view ... exposing it and fighting it the open for all the world to see its only tactic ...

That's the whole point: Steadfastly and falsely claiming Al Qaeda to be a conventional military threat has not exposed their true nature - quite the contrary, in fact!

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 2):
Al Qada offers no future .. only death... and slavery .

We're in complete agreement there.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 2):
The US and Allies are at the throat of this ideal , nothing is settled and know one can be sure of the outcome but we are forcing a choice to be made.

At this point it is very clearly the exact opposite.

The Al Qaeda ideology had always presented "The West" and particularly the USA as a hostile, warmongering and inherently illegitimate power.

This presentation was mostly false back in the day before 9-11; But in a cynically bizarre mistake, the Bush administration decided to mostly abandon the fully justified invasion of Afghanistan and without any plausible reason pressed for invasion of Iraq, progressively justiying the Al Qaeda propaganda point by point.

After the invasion, Abu Ghraib, Guantanamo and many, many other tactical and strategic blunders, Al Qaeda "enjoy" a massive boost in recruiting and associated activism and despite their obvious cruelty they are able to present themselves as the ones "who always knew the true face of The West" and who "actually do anything against them".

As disgusted as most arabs and muslims in general are with them, the stupidity and ineffectuality of the US-led anti-terrorism fight with unsuitable means has propped up Al Qaeda to a state which they should never have had, and would not have had without the completely unnecessary Iraq disaster.

The actual fight against terrorism is much less flashy in the news, but it is much more effective in the end. It takes time, active political undermining of the terrorists' recruiting background and both relentless and intelligent police prosecution.

But no, it had to be a "war" against terror. When all you have (or want to use) is a hammer, everything looks like a nail...  yuck 


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 4, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1364 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 3):
But no, it had to be a "war" against terror. When all you have (or want to use) is a hammer, everything looks like a nail...

Klaus , I stress that both sides of this argument has merit. Your idea I would assume would involve a shadowy clandestine war of spy on spy so to speak. I agree with you that it would have been possible to fight Al Qada in the short term by spying and killing them in the back alleys of wherever ( as I am sure we are doing anyway) This would in fact be short term and only aimed at individuals. The war on terror draws the line clearly.



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineUH60FtRucker From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1359 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 1):
Mistaking it for a conventional military enemy was the beginning of the downfall of "The War Against Terror" (TWAT) as declared by the Bush administration.

Jesus Klaus, it's the GWOT.

Your pet name for the war is crap, and I refuse to accept that the mission I currently partake in, and risk my life for, should be called TWAT.  Yeah sure

It's not funny.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 3):
That's the whole point: Steadfastly and falsely claiming Al Qaeda to be a conventional military threat has not exposed their true nature - quite the contrary, in fact!

Well... just because we fight with a conventional army, does not necessarily mean we are attempting to fight a conventional war.

And the fact that we are killing leaders, we are catching terrorists in New Jersey and at JFK International, all represent victories in the fight. Victories usually come by nonconventional warfighting.

I'm interested to know how you - Klaus - propose we fight the GWOT. How should we effectively deal with Al-Qaeda and Islamic Fanaticism? What would you do differently?

-UH60


User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21462 posts, RR: 53
Reply 6, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1311 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 4):
Klaus , I stress that both sides of this argument has merit. Your idea I would assume would involve a shadowy clandestine war of spy on spy so to speak.

No. There can be such elements, but the whole point is that Al Qaeda is a multi-level threat which only has a very tiny but highly visible fringe which could plausibly be tackled militarily.

The cause-to-symptom chain starts at political/social foundations, may or may not have an actual organisational infrastructure (activists often operate completely independently) and only rarely rises to the level of open warfare (as in some cases in Afghanistan).

Correspondingly, only smashing a military sledgehammer onto the latter and almost completely ignoring the originating structures and circumstances makes the problem worse - it adds motivation on the political/social front and can create circumstances where a conspiratory infrastructure can thrive (according to recent reports, the chaos and criminal activities in Iraq have by now become the main source of financial resources for Al Qaeda).

That is a short-term and increasingly fruitless approach.


What is needed is:

- A sound and convincing political/cultural approach which undermines the support and recruitment base of the terrorists.

Among others, the Iraq invasion was started under the delusion that it would make a constructive resolution of the Israel/Palestine conflict redundant. Unfortunately this lack of political courage has turned out to have backfired, badly.


- Conspirative cells and organisations need to be prosecuted with intelligence (both kinds!) and effective police work.


- Existing organisations must be starved of both manpower (recruitment) and money; At this point chaos and drug trade are main income sources which are left almost unconstrained.


- Where terrorism actually rises to a military level (as sometimes in Afghanistan), a military response is necessary. But this is only a very small component by comparison to the overall magnitude of the necessary response.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 4):
I agree with you that it would have been possible to fight Al Qada in the short term by spying and killing them in the back alleys of wherever ( as I am sure we are doing anyway) This would in fact be short term and only aimed at individuals.

You're having overly romantic ideas about this.

The actual fight against terrorism is much more complex, more difficult and more long-term than (just) that.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 4):
The war on terror draws the line clearly.

No. It completely misrepresents the necessary measures for the sake of political propaganda. "War" is something simplifying politicians can use to intimidate their own populations with and silence the opposition.

It's too much of a temptation to pass up when there's a lack of coherent analysis and an abundance of hubris.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
Jesus Klaus, it's the GWOT.

Your pet name for the war is crap, and I refuse to accept that the mission I currently partake in, and risk my life for, should be called TWAT.

It was the original "brand name" which had been pushed into the news as if it was a commercial for a new detergent. At some point, however, someone seems to have noticed the unfortunate acronym...  mischievous 

I just wish they had spared even a tiny fraction of the effort from their PR campaign on the actual analysis and/or planning...!

I don't insist on it, but making up soothing euphemisms or misnomers doesn't turn a thoroughly misconceived strategy into anything better.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
It's not funny.

No. What you're doing isn't funny. But that you're dealing with the fallout doesn't justify the strategy.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
Well... just because we fight with a conventional army, does not necessarily mean we are attempting to fight a conventional war.

An army has a relatively limited range of what it can do.

And one which has explicitly not been prepared for either nation-building or counter-insurgency work is even more limited.

It only gets worse again when the supreme command is incapable of even analyzing the situation properly, let alone define a workable strategy.

The military component of the conflicts has been grossly overstated and almost all other components (most of which are much closer to the actual causes) have been neglected.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
And the fact that we are killing leaders, we are catching terrorists in New Jersey and at JFK International, all represent victories in the fight.

Great indeed. But producing more new terrorists with clumsy military operations than intelligence agencies and police can catch on the other side is still a net defeat.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
Victories usually come by nonconventional warfighting.

Victories come by situation-adapted fighting. You can choose an unconventional but still stupid move and get your butt kicked in return.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
I'm interested to know how you - Klaus - propose we fight the GWOT. How should we effectively deal with Al-Qaeda and Islamic Fanaticism? What would you do differently?

- First, foremost and primarily: The US political leadership would need to work up the courage to finally address the Israel/Palestine conflict. It is the primary source of conflict in the entire greater region. Without the USA this cannot be accomplished. The conservatives/radicals in the region itself are obviously incapable of solving their own problems constructively, and neither the UN nor the EU can do it against a blockading USA either.

The blatant lack of convincing legitimacy the USA "enjoy" in the region depends primarily on the impression that the USA act as an uncritical minion of the respective israeli government. That impression needs to be replaced by a convincing and substantial show or fair and constructive mediation in order to get and keep the radicals in check.


- The uncritical collusion with atrocious regimes as in Saudi Arabia needs to be stopped. Saudi Arabia was and is one of the real centers of islamist extremism (unsurprising most of the 9-11 attackers were saudis). Similarly, other regimes as the one in Egypt need more pressure towards democracy and freedom.

When the general (and so far obviously justified) impression is that the USA will collude with any brutal oppressive regime as long as their short-term commercial or tactical interests are being served, it is obvious that there will be substantial resentment the extremists can tap for support and recruitment. Starving them out in that respect is the only long-term way to stability. Anything else is merely poking at symptoms (as extreme as some of them may be).


- Police and intelligence need to disrupt and prevent the formation of organizational structures. Cutting off funding (drugs, crime, donations) would be important as well. But many activists don't really need such structures if they're motivated enough.


- Use the military where it is necessary. Such as fighting down the warlords in Afghanistan in order to get the country under control so the elected government has an actual chance of taking over and the massive drug production can be stopped. But that option was abandoned in favour of the Iraq invasion. Which now helps fund the Taliban in Afghanistan who in tun collude with the warlords to keep the drug money flowing...


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 7, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1289 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 6):
You're having overly romantic ideas about this.

Yes it is romantic , a Holy war that has us on a direct collision course at this point.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 6):
First, foremost and primarily: The US political leadership would need to work up the courage to finally address the Israel/Palestine conflict.

Their is not resolution to this , its simple Hezbollah , Hammas , and the Jihad will not stop until Israel is gone. They do not want a state they want the Jews gone.

Quoting Klaus (Reply 6):
Police and intelligence need to disrupt and prevent the formation of organizational structures. Cutting off funding (drugs, crime, donations) would be important as well. But many activists don't really need such structures if they're motivated enough.

Klaus of all your points made , this one is one IMO makes the best sence. The others are again ,, legimitizing their cause and panging of .."Hubris"



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29799 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 1284 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 1):
Mistaking it for a conventional military enemy was the beginning of the downfall of "The War Against Terror" (TWAT) as declared by the Bush administration

I hadn't heard that one before.....clever.

Quoting UH60FtRucker (Reply 5):
Your pet name for the war is crap, and I refuse to accept that the mission I currently partake in, and risk my life for, should be called TWAT.

It's not funny.

I don't want you to see it but I have to give Klaus points for that one....Sort of reminds me of that line from "FMJ" ...."If I am going to fight for a word...my word is poon-tang"

Maybe you ought to look at this from a different angle.....some of the greatest wars in history have been fought over women.



OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 1283 times:

Quoting Mbj-11 (Thread starter):
following the arrest of four Caribbean nationals on terrorist charges that Al-Qaeda is now an ideology

-
What the police-chief meant was that, while elQaeda Network International still is a dangerous organisation, most terrorist actions nowadays come from "elQaeda inspired" people. And even most people "trading" as elQaeda are rather a kind of franchisees, and have nothing or not much to do with the organisation itself. It very much is a kind of ideology or a kind of "fashion". For the police-chief, the ugly result of course is that he realizes that the full burden of the struggle has now finally and definitely landed on the side of the police-forces in this world. Some soldiers may do some dogfights with rebels half a world away from home, but he and his force have to struggle against the "ideology" at home.
-

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 2):
The US and Allies are at the throat of this ideal , nothing is settled

it has nothing to do with "the US and allies", as it is not a military threat but a criminal threat. And even "NON-allies" like Iran etc struggle against the actual threat. Shizophreny in a way as some of such countries give some support to organisations which at one or the other stage will threaten the donors ! To give a nice example. Khaddafi turned course when he had to realize that exactly the bunch of "freedom fighters" he had supported over many years, gradually became a danger to himself and his regime.
-
"at the throat of this ideal" ? Security forces can (have to) make successes in the struggle against terrorism, but it is not something you can get "at the throat of". To put matters into perspectives: elQaeda is just ONE of the many offsprings of the MuslimBrotherhood founded by Sheikh Ahmed Hassan al-Banna in the 1920ies .
-
AND, right NOW, since yesterday, security forces in Spain can be expected to be on highest alert, due to the threat from ETA to relaunch terrorist attacks. NOT elQaeda related, not Islam-related, not MiddleEast or Iran related, but potentially REAL sh.......
-


User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21462 posts, RR: 53
Reply 10, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1247 times:

I want to add that I was a little crankier than usual when writing my previous post; I might have worded a few things a little differently otherwise.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 7):
Yes it is romantic , a Holy war that has us on a direct collision course at this point.

I was referring to your ideas about what intelligence and policing operations would look like.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 7):
Their is not resolution to this , its simple Hezbollah , Hammas , and the Jihad will not stop until Israel is gone. They do not want a state they want the Jews gone.

There's a second side to this which other people claim with equal fervour to be the only valid one.

Which is exactly the problem, with the majority of the people in the region being caught in the middle between the hardliners.

Quoting L-188 (Reply 8):
I hadn't heard that one before.....clever.

Not my invention... it was actually the initial brand name before they had it changed...

Quoting L-188 (Reply 8):
Maybe you ought to look at this from a different angle.....some of the greatest wars in history have been fought over women.

If only...!


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 11, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1238 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 10):
There's a second side to this which other people claim with equal fervour to be the only valid one.

I agree Klaus , I also believe that if the Palestinians would put as much effort into forming a better society that the US would support them as well. If they had a vision of prosperity and peace for their people the US would have to back them. They need to learn how to play the public relations game , if they did ,it would hurt Israel more that firing rockets at them. Again I see your argument as blaming the US for all the problems , I just reject it .

Back to the topic

I see it like this

The USA and the west. Ideology ... Personal acheivment , a strong society inclusive of all releigions and ideas, a high priority on making the lives of our children better in the future.

Al Qada: Islamic purity , no rights for individuals , embodies everything that has put the west and the middle east on a collision course.

IMO the war on terror or the GWOT has drawn a distinctive line between these ideals , I beleive the war in Iraq has put us in a direct confrontation with these ideals. Establishing a governemnt along the lines of the ideals above would deal a severe blow to the forces that want Al Qada like rules. I know the war in Iraq is not that black and white and their are some nationalistic forces fighting their as well. But the big picture of a democratic Iraq and Afghanistan is the end game and is where the real idealogical struggle is focused.



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1230 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 11):
If they had a vision of prosperity and peace for their people the US would have to back them.

There IS that vision of prosperity and peace, advocated by Palestine president Abbas. But until the next election, the Hamas Prime Minister and that Hamas dominated coalition government are not producing anything of value. As they last time won thanks to a heavy protest vote, there is a very good chance that they will lose their majority position next time.
-

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 11):
Al Qada: Islamic purity , no rights for individuals , embodies everything that has put the west and the middle east on a collision course.

NO, the elQaeda ideology has put the Middle East and the Middle East on a collision course, a "collision" which has gone on for 20 years by now. Things may not be best, but it nevertheless is amazing that the fundamentalists have regionally only succeeded in Saudi Arabia and Iran, but failed elsewhere.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 11):
the war in Iraq is not that black and white and their are some nationalistic forces fighting their as well.

the on-going occupation is giving fuel to the extremists of all colours and all ideological backgrounds, like oil put into a fire


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 13, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1213 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 12):
There IS that vision of prosperity and peace, advocated by Palestine president Abbas.

I do see some hope in President Abbas , but I am not sure he can collate enough support. I am also sceptical as to how the US can show support for President Abbas. With Fatah and Hammas fighting for hearts and minds of the voters who see the US as evil , our support will do more harm than good. Am I wrong ?

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 12):
NO, the elQaeda ideology has put the Middle East and the Middle East

Good , that is exactly what needs to happen . The people of the ME need to see the differences , they need to see the ideals of Al Qada for what it is . I believe that the majority of them do , but it will take time for the opposing ideals to take root.

The lowest common denominator for the people of the ME is to fall back into the arms of Al Qada , that is the ideals of Islamic purity and rejection of others.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 12):
the on-going occupation is giving fuel to the extremists of all colours and all ideological backgrounds, like oil put into a fire

I do not disagree with this , But the extremists have no plan for the future . Their goal is merely to kick out the "occupiers", much like Hamas . What kind of future can Hamas offer to the people of the ME ? Do the insurgents in Iraq have any idea what they are fighting for other than to dislodge the crusader oppressors ? I do not think they do . Just my opinion ,



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 14, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1205 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 12):
Quoting AGM100 (Reply 11):
Al Qada: Islamic purity , no rights for individuals , embodies everything that has put the west and the middle east on a collision course.

NO, the elQaeda ideology has put the Middle East and the Middle East on a collision course, a "collision" which has gone on for 20 years by now. Things may not be best, but it nevertheless is amazing that the fundamentalists have regionally only succeeded in Saudi Arabia and Iran, but failed elsewhere.

Just so. Basically, the ideas of Zawahiri had been shown to have failed. Osama was not all that keen to espouse them but the US reaction to actions along lines that Zawahiri espoused, has breathed life into those ideas. The concept that you can declare Muslims as neo infidels and kill them is not really popular in Islamic countries. The broad attacks made especially in Iraq, then in Lebanon enable Al Q to pretend that they alone are defending Muslims.

Just for the record, OBL is known to have disapproved of Zarkawis tactics in Iraq, too many deaths of Muslims. He felt Zark was giving OBL a bad name. Strange, but it seems true.

Also, OBL think he is fighting fair. He has warned the west and has made offers. He has now dotted his "i"s and crossed his "t"s.

The invasion of Iraq in the absence of a serious attempt to solve the Palestinian problem was a major disaster. I don't usually defend Blair, but I assume he too is furious that no honest attempt was made to solve it, preferably before Iraq was invaded.

Now there are so many eggs scrambled that did not have to be scrambled.

And eventually, however much police work slows down the Al Qaeda franchise, negotiations will have to be held. Hope the pollies are preparing to swallow the "we never negotiate with terrorists". How in heck do they suppose the IRA problem got to its present state of uneasy calm? Definitely not by courtesy of the UK army. Bloody Sunday (1972 version) put paid to that "nice" idea.

Klaus may have been off temper but his analysis is pretty good. My version of which war it is differs from Klaus'. Mine is GWAT - the Great War to Assist Terrorism. Develop would be better than assist but then you cannot pronounce it!!

But of course Al Q is an ideology. So you can take your pick as to whether it is more difficult to fight a war against a strategy or an ideology. About the same difference.

And none of this implies that I feel at all kindly towards terrorists. I don't, but I WOULD like to keep the number of folk supporting them to a minimum! Step one in the way to deal with a wasp's nest is NOT to poke it with a stick.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 15, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1198 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
our support will do more harm than good. Am I wrong ?

in short, the USA should keep out for the time being
-

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
it will take time for the opposing ideals to take root.

no, the "opposing ideals" have taken roots long ago
-

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
The lowest common denominator for the people of the ME is to fall back into the arms of Al Qaeeda

-
NO, because the ideas of the Muslim Brotherhood and its offsprings like elQaeeda are NOT a common denominator
-

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
do not disagree with this , But the extremists have no plan for the future . Their goal is merely to kick out the "occupiers", much like Hamas . What kind of future can Hamas offer to the people of the ME ?

-
Let's first turn to Hamas. What is the problem about Hamas ? The problem is that it is a conservative, clericalist, restrictive, anti-freedom, fundamentalist party, intent on pushing through their religiously inspired notions. They thrived because A) the parties inside the PLO had become used up and to some extent corrupt, so that the voting last time was a protest vote, and B) because the Israelis for a long time attacked the moderate parties/movements and not Hamas who by the Israeli leadership was regarded as an organisation of useful idiots.
-
Then over to Iraq. You differentiate between extremists and moderates. The problem just is that each political wing usually has three sections, a violent rebel group, a non-violent underground group, and a legal group in the open. And what takes place "in the open" also takes place underground, which means that there is not one insurgency but a dozen insurgencIES, in other words you have rebel groups from Shi'ite fundamentalists, Sunni fundamentalists, Socialist Secularists (Ba'ath), Communist Secularists (linked to the Tudeh Party in Iran = heavily Shi'ite), and Conservative Secularist Nationalists, plus a tiny group of former Saddam enthusiasts. They ALL have certain "plans". Let's not forget that the officers and many soldiers of the old army also are "underground".


User currently offlineAGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 16
Reply 16, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1195 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
Step one in the way to deal with a wasp's nest is NOT to poke it with a stick.

Baroque , ... the problem is we are still feeling the pains of the wasp sting . To protect my kids , the wasp nest would be burned out in a matter of an hour after stinging my kids.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 15):
The problem just is that each political wing usually has three sections,

ME AVN , Do you believe that these many groups can ever form into political wings only ? Or is their always going to be hatred and violence between them . IMO this is the only shred of hope in Iraq. I appreciate you pointing out these groups , but it is irrelevant if they choose only terror tactics to gain power. I beleive that the coalition would welcome these groups into the Iraqi governemnt if they chose political action over suicide bombing.



You dig the hole .. I fill the hole . 100% employment !
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 17, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 1171 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 16):
ME AVN , Do you believe that these many groups can ever form into political wings only ? Or is their always going to be hatred and violence between them . IMO this is the only shred of hope in Iraq. I appreciate you pointing out these groups , but it is irrelevant if they choose only terror tactics to gain power. I beleive that the coalition would welcome these groups into the Iraqi governemnt if they chose political action over suicide bombing.

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There are many many precedents. One of the major parties in Ireland came out of the anti-British rebellion in the early 20th Century, founded by people who between 1914 and 1918 jubiliated each time the Germans scored against the Brits. The FLN in Algeria is the same organisation which fought a guerilla war against the French between 1950 and 1962, and now, FLN people are in constant touch with the government in Paris. The Egyptian "Peace President" Anwar Sadat in earlier days planned to blow up the British Embassy in Cairo with one big blow-up. But moderated later on. Israeli Prime Minister Begin in younger years sent dozens of letter bombs to the families of British soldiers active in Palestine. Later on Kenya President Jomo Kenyatta earlier on was the leader of the Mau-Mau uprising. Parties in the Parliament in Sana'a come from parties which just 10 years ago were leading their side of the country in a short but serious civil war which lead to the Yemeni re-unification. In the 1980ies, militias of the parties of present day Lebanese President Lahoud and Prime Minister Siniora were involved in artillery duels in downtown Beirut. The various militias of those days now are inside the Lebanese Army under a central command, with a single exception. You have similar things elsewhere. The point about the "hatred" often is exaggerated. Adversity yes, but the hatred, whenever existing, is not as deep and as intense as you may assume out of the headlines.
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No, the coalition does NOT welcome "these groups" into the Iraqi government. In spite of experts clearly telling Messrs Bush and Maliki to re-legalize the Socialist Party, the party still is not (yet) re-legalized and so has to stay underground, and the same applies to the Communist Party.
-


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 18, posted (7 years 3 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 1168 times:

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
Good , that is exactly what needs to happen . The people of the ME need to see the differences , they need to see the ideals of Al Qada for what it is . I believe that the majority of them do , but it will take time for the opposing ideals to take root.

Most of them do see just that difference. The assassinations done by the Muslim brotherhood in Egypt caused the organization to lose support. Apart from being locked up, that is a major reason why Zawahiri fled to Afghanistan. Although OBL is now famous for using those methods, it seems he was not initially receptive to using them.

But the problem is that the methods used to attack OBL, have caused the revulsion at the methods of the Muslim Brotherhood to be subsumed by anger at other issues, such as the invasion of Iraq. In other words, the west has reinvigorated a tactic that even many of its supporters had realised was not working.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 13):
But the extremists have no plan for the future . Their goal is merely to kick out the "occupiers", much like Hamas . What kind of future can Hamas offer to the people of the ME ? Do the insurgents in Iraq have any idea what they are fighting for other than to dislodge the crusader oppressors ? I do not think they do . Just my opinion ,

That is to some extent true. However, does it not cause you to wonder if there is any merit in taking a position that allows OBL to label you (and me of course) as a crusading oppressor? Once you get that label, it scarcely matters what you do, it will be discounted by most of the relevant audience.

As far as both the US and Israel are concerned, they are perceived to be so hostile to Palestinians (not withstanding that there are many in Israel who are very sympathetic to just Palestinian causes), that even a major softening of the position either the US or Israel would be treated with suspicion for so long that it seems doubtful it would succeed, no matter how just it was.

That is the sad state that has been achieved by 40 years of occupation, and short sighted attempts to produce "stability" without addressing the causes of instability. In practice it is clear that the so-called stability, just increases the pressures within the Palestinians.

MAF gives an excellent summary of how you the flawed Arafat organization was traded in for Hamas, which on closer inspection turns out to be worse than the one that was deliberately fatally compromised.

For those intent on destroying Hamas, all this should give some pause for thought. If you destroy Hamas, will you get back some improved version of the PLO, or will you get a more extreme organization than Hamas? I know which I would prefer, but I know what I think is more likely.

Some of the critics of MAF might care to examine his para on Hamas and bookmark it for the next time they want to suggest that he is a proxy for extreme organizations. Wanting to know what something is, does not automatically indicate you sympathise with them. At least the next time someone accuses MAF of sympathising with the insurgents in Iraq, he will be able to ask which one of the groups he is being accused of supporting. He lists 6 groups, most of which have mutually exclusive aims.

Quoting AGM100 (Reply 16):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 14):
Step one in the way to deal with a wasp's nest is NOT to poke it with a stick.

Baroque , ... the problem is we are still feeling the pains of the wasp sting . To protect my kids , the wasp nest would be burned out in a matter of an hour after stinging my kids.

The problem with the stick in the wasps nest analogy, is that by the time you have burned the nest, the queens, after leaving the others to sting you, have long fled and set up other better hidden nests. And they do that long before you get your fire cranked up.

To keep up the (not all that good but serviceable) analogy, the damned wasps have now evolved to a new subspecies that produces larger number of queens and these queens fly out to found new colonies while still immature. Alas, every tactic has a counter-tactic and carelessly used tactics, brew up the counter tactics in advance of the initially used tactic being useful. I wonder how much OBL would appreciate being likened to a queen!!! Not a great deal I suspect.


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