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Who Will Be The Next Pm Of Australia?  
User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9107 posts, RR: 15
Posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2975 times:

Who will be the next PM of Australia? John Howard still?

82 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10735 posts, RR: 38
Reply 1, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2972 times:

I have a question that is slightly o/t although not totally...

Is the Australian PM John Howard related to Maestro pianist Leslie Howard (also from Australia)?  Confused



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineFlyboysp From Australia, joined Apr 2007, 736 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2948 times:

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

Currently he is still the Prime Minister, however

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
Who will be the next PM of Australia?

On current opinion polls, the Australian Labor Party would win the next election meaning Kevin Rudd would become the next Prime Minister.

In the last opinion polls that i have seen, on a two party preferred basis, Labor lead 59% to 41% for the coalition. Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Is the Australian PM John Howard related to Maestro pianist Leslie Howard (also from Australia)?

I do not believe that they are related.



Felipe Baby...... stay cool!
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2933 times:

Quoting Flyboysp (Reply 2):
In the last opinion polls that i have seen, on a two party preferred basis, Labor lead 59% to 41% for the coalition. Current speculation is that the election will be called just after the departure of the Canadian Prime Minister.

Presumably this departure will be in a cavalcade driven by the Chaser Boys. If I were the Canadian PM, I would demand it as a right! Just joking - I think.

Flybosp is correct, the last polls had the Labor party ahead on what are known as primary votes, which is close to unheard of.

If you want to follow the elections United Airline, you need to get abreast of preferential voting and our extraordinary senate voting system.
http://www.eca.gov.au/systems/single/by_category/preferential.htm
Try that for starters but it gives you nothing of how complex it can be. I always vote "below the line" for the Senate, and a party apparatchik I asked about where my vote said he would find out He came back a week later and said you really could not predict. This is because votes are physically pulled out and put in quotas. If your vote is in an early quota, the preferences you so carefully gave are not counted. If the lower numbers on your paper are eliminated, then your vote will move around from pile to pile. Or that is how I (don't) understand it.

It seems unlikely the final two party preferred will be 59 :41. But it might be about 53 : 47. The former would mean only about a quarter of the present government members would retain their seats - at most. 53:47 would still be a Labor victory but at that point, the distribution within seats of voters starts to become important.

The betting folk have their money on Howard losing.

I too doubt if Leslie H was related, but ex PM Keating's sister Anne was General Manager for United Airlines in Aus!!! Trivium for the day.

Oh, one other thing, VOTING IS COMPULSORY!


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9107 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2898 times:

Any chance for John Howard to catch up?

He is quite good to be honest


User currently offlineLAXspotter From India, joined Jan 2007, 3650 posts, RR: 5
Reply 5, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2895 times:

Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

if he becomes PM, I shall not post on anet for a week, and this the election of a man who has no apparent influence where I live, or does he?



"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
User currently offlineJGPH1A From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2893 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
He is quite good to be honest

Seems like a significant majority of Australians disagree. Time he was gone, he's just a bald Tony Blair poodle-alike.


User currently offlineAndz From South Africa, joined Feb 2004, 8416 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2891 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

oooh.... 6 posts and no one has suggested our own QANTASforever? He WILL be pissed off!!


After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 8, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2883 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
Any chance for John Howard to catch up?

He is quite good to be honest

His nickname of Honest John came about in the 70s when it was realised he could never be trusted.

This is the Australian way that he rambles on about. Anyone with red (RED) is know as Blue, or Bluey, if you hear of someone called Shorty be prepared for a 2 metre tall giant when you meet them.

The later version of Honest John is more explanatory, he is also known as the Lying Rodent. Sources if you want, but he is all a bit tedious.

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 5):
Quoting United Airline (Thread starter):
John Howard still?

if he becomes PM, I shall not post on anet for a week, and this the election of a man who has no apparent influence where I live, or does he?

 checkmark 
Imagine what it is like here, and still the distinct (but small) possibility that the electorate goes mad on election day - after all it has gone mad before!  Wow!  boggled   brokenheart   confused   covereyes   crying   crying   eek   hissyfit   liar   no   ouch   spin   weeping 
Quite a few emoticons for the event though,


User currently offlineLAXspotter From India, joined Jan 2007, 3650 posts, RR: 5
Reply 9, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2883 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 8):
Imagine what it is like here, and still the distinct (but small) possibility that the electorate goes mad on election day - after all it has gone mad before!
Quite a few emoticons for the event though,

just wondering how are the polls?



"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
User currently offlineBill142 From Australia, joined Aug 2004, 8434 posts, RR: 9
Reply 10, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2874 times:

Quoting Andz (Reply 7):
oooh.... 6 posts and no one has suggested our own QANTASforever? He WILL be pissed off!!

It appears he's banned.


User currently offlineVHVXB From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 5520 posts, RR: 19
Reply 11, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2870 times:

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 9):
just wondering how are the polls?

read replies 2 and 3. It gives you a good indication of how he is polling


User currently offlineBNEFlyer From Australia, joined Oct 2006, 213 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2866 times:

KEVIN07 all the way!

It'll take a good Brissy boy to run this country the right way  Wink


User currently offlineLAXspotter From India, joined Jan 2007, 3650 posts, RR: 5
Reply 13, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2863 times:

Quoting BNEFlyer (Reply 12):
It'll take a good Brissy boy to run this country the right way

yeh, well where is Howard from, the australian version of texas, Alice Springs?



"Patriotism is the last refuge of the scoundrel" Samuel Johnson
User currently offlineSpringbok747 From Australia, joined Nov 2004, 4387 posts, RR: 11
Reply 14, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2854 times:

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 13):
yeh, well where is Howard from, the australian version of texas, Alice Springs?

Howard's from Sydney.

Quoting Bill142 (Reply 10):
It appears he's banned.

Ah..no wonder we're not seeing QFF's post around here. How long is he banned for?



אני תומך בישראל
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 2837 times:

Quoting LAXspotter (Reply 9):
just wondering how are the polls?

The latest is:
http://www.smh.com.au/news/apec/howa...unge/2007/09/09/1189276524682.html
"Howard's poll plunge
Labor's two-party preferred vote rose two points to 57 per cent. The Coalition fell 2 points to 43 per cent."

More details on Monday 10 Sept. The changes refer to the last Herald/Nielsen poll which has different numbers from the ones cited previously.

Insiders on the morning of 9 Sept gave a running average (don't press for how it is calculated, cos I have forgotten) of 57 to 43 IIRC. The aim of the running average is to remove fluctuations that occur in individual polls. So the latest Herald/Nielsen is close to the trend average.

An alternative way to answer your question is that Howard's party is showing a fair few signs of panic, while of course denying that they are panicking.


User currently offlineConnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 16, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2833 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 3):
If you want to follow the elections United Airline, you need to get abreast of preferential voting and our extraordinary senate voting system.
http://www.eca.gov.au/systems/single/by_category/preferential.htm
Try that for starters but it gives you nothing of how complex it can be. I always vote "below the line" for the Senate, and a party apparatchik I asked about where my vote said he would find out He came back a week later and said you really could not predict. This is because votes are physically pulled out and put in quotas. If your vote is in an early quota, the preferences you so carefully gave are not counted. If the lower numbers on your paper are eliminated, then your vote will move around from pile to pile. Or that is how I (don't) understand it.

So do you think the transferable vote system is superior to the first past the post system ? In Canada there is a growing debate about changing to a transferable system. My problem with what you explained about Oz's system is that it does not appear to be transparent. Heck, if you can't tell where your ballot goes, why bother voting ?

I also think we'd be stuck with permanent coalition governments and eventually splinter into the mess they have in Israel or Italy.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 17, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2820 times:

Quoting Connies4ever (Reply 16):
So do you think the transferable vote system is superior to the first past the post system ? In Canada there is a growing debate about changing to a transferable system. My problem with what you explained about Oz's system is that it does not appear to be transparent. Heck, if you can't tell where your ballot goes, why bother voting ?

Well I added that bit about the Senate to make sure how complex it CAN be, but mostly you know where your vote will go. What the preferential system does do is allow you to indicate a REAL preference first, and then have another go to make sure which government you want.

So quite a number will vote Green first, but apart from my own electorate a few years ago when Labor were really on the nose, Greens will not get in. So if you voted Green, you next vote is for the party you really would prefer in government. You get the government you want (with luck) but if you wish to administer a kick first, you can do that.

The senate, let us not go into the senate!! But even in the Senate, you can vote above the line and hope the party you prefer have not been a bunch of prats. Eg the Labor in Vic where voting 1 above the line for them ended up putting in a Family First nutter.

You can make the Preferential system as transparent as you like, and I have never thought of it as being non-transparent, but it can be complex. Lack of transparency implies a wish to deceive - not there, but complexity is there.

One problem these days is the state and Fed systems can be different and it can be difficult to remember which is which. But don't worry, both are compulsory!!


User currently offlinePilotdude09 From Australia, joined May 2005, 1777 posts, RR: 4
Reply 18, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2820 times:

Kevin Rudd, hopefully.

I dont agree with all his policies eg. a totally unionised workplace but many more of his policies are better than Howards. And we need a fresh face in charge of Aussie and a fresh PM.

Johhny has had his years and time for him to go.



Qantas, Still calling Australia Home.........
User currently offlineCupraIbiza From Australia, joined Feb 2007, 836 posts, RR: 6
Reply 19, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 2787 times:

What hasn't been mentioned is that the government enjoys a 16 seat majority. So to form government Rudd/Labour needs to convert its massive opinion poll lead into actual gains in seats. This is where opinion polls fall down. As an example Labour could increase the number of votes it receives dramatically, however if this increase in votes occurs primarily in already safe Labour held seats then Rudd will struggle to form government.

No doubt Howard is in massive trouble, but I dont think it is as clear cut as the opinion polls would lead us to believe



Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
User currently offlineQFA380 From Australia, joined Jul 2005, 2059 posts, RR: 1
Reply 20, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 hours ago) and read 2773 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 3):
our extraordinary senate voting system.

I wish we (Cowper) had a senate seat... We've only got a lower house guy although he is pretty good (Nationals). I have absolutely no doubt that he will get elected again this year. So its up to the rest of Australia to kick Johnny out.

Quoting Springbok747 (Reply 14):
How long is he banned for?

I hope not too much longer. The election will probably be called this week or next and then the fun really begins.

Just a question for those who know anything about our Constitution. Why does the PM get to decide when the election is held? And does this happen in many other countries too?

And I have another question for those who were around back in the early 90's (I was only a couple of years old). How did John Howard get so popular? I mean, you have some popularity in getting put into the Leadership of the Opposition(which is why Costello never will). I know that once he got leadership he was automatically a winner, I read something saying that howard may have a slight chance because unlike when keating was around, the electorate isn't waiting for the day with a baseball bat. Kevin Rudd got popular from being on Sunrise every week, fairly quick ascenion up the political ladder.

Quoting JGPH1A (Reply 6):
Quoting United Airline (Reply 4):
He is quite good to be honest

Seems like a significant majority of Australians disagree. Time he was gone, he's just a bald Tony Blair poodle-alike.

We do disagree. No one knows why we have John Howard as PM. We haven't had a good PM or opposition leader for quite some time until Rudd came along. Howard has managed our economy very poorly, we're in the middle of a boom which had massive potential and while very good, could have been better. Not to mention all the policy blunders he's made over the years.


User currently offlineUnited Airline From Hong Kong, joined Jan 2001, 9107 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 2762 times:

What's the poll results?

User currently offlineQFA380 From Australia, joined Jul 2005, 2059 posts, RR: 1
Reply 22, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 2756 times:

Quoting United Airline (Reply 21):
What's the poll results?

The SMH had this morning on the front page but Labor is leading 14 points at 57-43 in 2 party preferred. Labor is also up 5 points in the primaries with 49-39% against the Libs.

And another thing, Kevin Rudd has equalled his record for the highest approval rating held by opposition leader in the 35 year history of the polls at 67%, Howards is at 50%. They're saying that unless John Howard really starts doing something dramatic, he's not going to win the election.


User currently offlineMal787 From Australia, joined Jul 2007, 687 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks ago) and read 2750 times:

Well with a bit of luck John Howard will come back in the polls, the last thing the country can afford at the moment is the total Labour control on both state & federal level's. It will be open slather on everything union wise and take us back to the dark period of the late 70's early 80's. Not only that I have no faith in the labour policies on workplace reform, what we have now does work as opposed to all the union advertising. The changes proposed by Rudd / Gillard are all a whitewash to both the big buseness and the union movement at the moment and if they get in you can bet bottom dollar they will cave in to the union heavies and change the plans asap, the only thing saving us at the moment is the Coalition will still have control of the Senate . Rudd says he is not a puppet, that in my opinion is pure Bull
my 2 Cents worth
Mal787



Flying cant get enough of it
User currently offlineCupraIbiza From Australia, joined Feb 2007, 836 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (6 years 7 months 2 weeks ago) and read 2738 times:

Quoting Mal787 (Reply 23):
the last thing the country can afford at the moment is the total Labour control on both state & federal level's.

Rudd is always going on about "ending the blame game" between state and federal governments. If he wins the pressure will be on to deliver in this area.



Everyday is a gift…… but why does it have to be a pair of socks?
25 Baroque : Two word answer, Peacock, Keating. The Colt from Kooyong (not to mention Downer) was so awful that it had to be Howard once Hewson was sunk by his GS
26 Post contains images Mariner : Billy McMahon and his mates? I think I'd chuck a techie. mariner
27 QANTAS077 : sounds like your doing his electioneering too? quite good, watch this video of former PM Keating summing him up perfectly back in the 90's. He's a ma
28 Baroque : No, god forbid, I think I would chuck more than a techie whatever that is if a silly Billy returned! Fred Chaney, the NSW Senator whose name I always
29 YYZAeroEng : Why would Australian elections be tied to the departure of our PM?
30 Mariner : I'll give you Gorton - a terrific bloke, brought down by his own (the dark arts of Malcolm Fraser?). Chipp? I am more ambivalent, but against him I'l
31 Baroque : I think I must have been misunderstood, or even misunderestimated! It was not the whole of the Libs of that era I was saying "bring back" just the to
32 CupraIbiza : First find out what electorate they live in. Because my vote (like many peoples) is totally worthless. I live in a very safe Labor seat - it requires
33 Post contains links QANTAS077 : word is that dolly and Turnbull have withdrawn their support for Howard... http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...n-pm/2007/09/11/1189276668402.html
34 CupraIbiza : Howard's biggest media supporter in town (Andrew Bolt - Herald Sun) was on radio this morning saying that "this isn't working and that at even at thi
35 QANTAS077 : they won't vote for Howard either....Howard & Costello are one and the same.
36 CupraIbiza : who does that leave them with Turnbull? He could lose his seat
37 QANTAS077 : its on like donkey kong, Bolt reckons he'll be gone by tomorrow afternoon and now we have Turnbull & Downer denying the report, don't expect to hear
38 Mariner : Both, I guess, though one hangs on the other. I thought what Chipp did was a triumph of disguised ego over realpolitik. Have a cup of tea, a Bex, and
39 Gemuser : To expand a bit. While the LAST date the election can be held is set by law, 3 years after the return of the writs (formal results) for the last elec
40 Post contains links and images Springbok747 : Howard will be hoping Harper can stay here forever Elections to be held in early December BTW...wonder why Howard's calling it so late? By that time
41 Baroque : That is consistent with an interview with Bolt on ABC newsradio about 10.10 am 11 Sept (oops) EAST that two ministers are about to approach Howard an
42 Post contains images NAV20 : Odd that when this thread was started the answer would have been Howard or Kevin Rudd (known as 'Krudd' round here, is that nickname catching on anywh
43 QANTAS077 : I've heard that he will be gone by tomorrow afternoon, its being engineered by Turnbull is what I'm also hearing. Howard is now saying that he will f
44 CupraIbiza : For Telstra or for the country? Why do you think he won't challenge? It looks like its been a big day. Howard has enjoyed rock solid support from thi
45 QANTAS077 : for the country...read his interview on NBC. he don't have the numbers, only way he'll get the job is having it handed to him...funny that we've not
46 CupraIbiza : I said the same eariler in the day, but having had a bit of a re think dont you think that if he was running for PM that would help him over the line
47 Post contains links QANTAS077 : http://www.theage.com.au/news/nation...ting/2007/09/11/1189276691029.html
48 Post contains links CupraIbiza : These are the dates Fantastic website http://www.sportingbetdecider.com/ WHAT SATURDAY WILL THE FEDERAL ELECTION BE HELD? Sportingbet Australia Prices
49 Post contains links QANTAS077 : you can bet that they will suspend soon too...just like others are now doing, another piece in the Australian today is suggesting that Howard has lost
50 QANTAS077 : at this rate the coalition could be destroyed completely, the only halt is to call the election or change leader yesterday.
51 Flyboysp : It is just a matter of courtesy, to not have Mr Harper or any leader involved when an election is called. The factor of election dates come into play
52 Post contains links CupraIbiza : I know its amazing. A handful of very safe Nationals seats could result in The Nationals being the senior partner in the Coalition. Punters rarely ge
53 QANTAS077 : party room meeting for tomorrow has been cancelled by Howard...I think my initial comment about the PM are on the money, he'll fight the election but
54 Baroque : I will determine who is PM and I will determine what is the will of the Liberal party and the means by which it is determined. (JWH pers comm!) Fasci
55 Post contains links and images NAV20 : OK - now we have a full-blown crisis. "Two bookmakers have reacted to the renewed speculation about Prime Minister John Howard's future by temporarily
56 Baroque : Hi there Nav! To "no gee gee bets", "closing the books on the elections", you can now add that his indecision on carbon trading is wrecking the carbo
57 QANTAS077 : that seems to be the case, its Howard calling the shots of what's in the party's best interests, what I find totally astounding is that they have NO
58 Post contains links Flyboysp : Prime Minister John Howard sets retirement PRIME Minister John Howard says he will step down some time within the next three years if re-elected at th
59 Baroque : That summary of how the Liberal party choses its leader seems, apart from Howard, to be the main thing that survived the day. As I wrote it, I though
60 QANTAS077 : so its official that a vote for Howard is a vote for Costello at the upcoming election...
61 Flyboysp : From some unofficial information that i have been told the election is to be called at the end of parliament next week, with the election to take pla
62 Baroque : My two cents on Nov 3, to avoid the possible rise in interest rates. If he has them under as much control as the Parliamentary Libs, then 10 or 17 is
63 Flyboysp : Out of curiosity, when would the election have to be called for it to be held on Nov 3? I am not quite sure if there is a minimum amount of campaign
64 Post contains links Baroque : Well the M Cup should be (says he counting on his fingers) on the 6th. To my mind this rules out 10 Nov. For a Nov 3 date http://www.aec.gov.au/Elect
65 CupraIbiza : I highly doubt this date would be selected. Its Derby Day! The premier racing day of the Spring Racing Carnival (well usually it is when horses don't
66 QANTAS077 : I'd expect the 10 november to be the election date...he's following in Menzies shoes.
67 CupraIbiza : how so?
68 QANTAS077 : * The election campaign, under the constitution, must be at least 33 days in length * Three years since the last election will be October 9th * Rober
69 Post contains images Baroque : He will probably be avoiding early December - anyone remember when Silly Billy lost to Gough? As that was 5 Dec, if QF077 is right, we can sharpen ou
70 CupraIbiza : First Monday of November. Make it a public holiday! Then we get a 4 day weekend. Surely that is worth a few thousand votes?
71 Post contains images NAV20 : Speaking of which, I wonder if Howard is like the rest of us and relaxes in the evenings sometimes by watching old movies? If so, he'd better slot in
72 Post contains images Baroque : The thought of JWH watching the end of Zulu and placing himself in the cast is nearly as funny as last nights Chaser! I might note that if it is not
73 CupraIbiza : I can't recall such one sided polling. However I am still not convinced the landslide that is being predicted will occur. The 17 seats required is ra
74 Baroque : At a guess, cos it would cost about 50 times as much as the current types of survey. But I think that is exactly what the parties do. Mind you nobody
75 LAXspotter : What will happen if Howard's party is not elected, and the opposition is, how will relations with America and rest of the coalition of the willing be,
76 United Airline : If the Liberals get elected I suppose John Howard will be the PM of Australia again
77 NAV20 : No material change, LAXspotter. Rudd would probably withdraw our foot-soldiers from Iraq next year; but Howard would probably have to do that too, ou
78 Post contains links Flyboysp : That is correct, however Mr Howard has said that he will not be running for the full term. His plan is to handover the leadership Peter Costello. htt
79 QANTAS077 : you make it sound like Australia is going to fall off the face of the planet if John Howard is defeated in the election, believe it or not, John Howa
80 Baroque : As it happens this might be one of the better questions asked on a.net. To answer you have to know the meaning of "probably er certainly" resign in f
81 Post contains links NAV20 : Nice bit of innocent fun here. For those who aren't following things-Australian all that closely, Howard's most recent gambit is to promise that, afte
82 Baroque : Going to disagree a bit here Nav. First he has core and non-core promises. Then you need to remember the time spent getting from "probably" to "certa
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