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Russia May Cut Off Oil Flow To The West  
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10901 posts, RR: 37
Posted (6 years 1 month 3 days ago) and read 3260 times:

Russia may cut off oil flow to the West

By Ambrose Evans-Pritchard
Last Updated: 9:26pm BST 28/08/2008

Fears are mounting that Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days, in response to the threat of EU sanctions and Nato naval actions in the Black Sea.

Any such move would be a dramatic escalation of the Georgia crisis and play havoc with the oil markets.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/money/mai...=/money/2008/08/29/cnrussia129.xml


There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
62 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineL410Turbolet From Czech Republic, joined May 2004, 5718 posts, RR: 18
Reply 1, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3249 times:



Quoting MadameConcorde (Thread starter):
Russia may restrict oil deliveries to Western Europe over coming days

Again???  yawn 
Nothing we haven't seen or experienced before.


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10901 posts, RR: 37
Reply 2, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3240 times:

Russia has more power when it comes to manipulating prices than actual supply.

Russia needs the money from oil exports. That is their main source of state revenues.

However, Russia can manipulate prices and make it more difficult for western politicians at home. These threats are meant to manipulate prices. People seem to forget that high oil prices are good for Russia.

Oh and the naked capitalists will use ANY excuse to hyke up the price of oil even if they know Russia is bluffing.



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 3, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3150 times:



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
People seem to forget that high oil prices are good for Russia.

As they are for many of the friends of one G W Bush, a point that is seldom mentioned. Actually, I am quite partial to them myself!! But that is another story.  duck 


User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3137 times:

This is a move designed to neutralize NATO. In our wish to accept Russia as a friend and trading partner over the past 20 years, some NATO countries have allowed themselves to become directly linked to Russia for oil and natural gas. It's not that easy for them to turn around and start getting it from someplace else again - the infrastructure is not in place.

So, if Putin decides to attack Poland - specifically the Standard battery they hate so much - even though that would be clearly an act of war on a NATO member, which should bring all of NATO countries together, a lot of them will refuse because Russia has a vice on their economy.

I am starting to think that the above scenario may very well happen, and that the only country to come to Poland's aide will be the U.S. (assuming Obama is not president). Britain would stand up if Blair was still there, but Gordon Brown is a cowardly wuss.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8964 posts, RR: 39
Reply 5, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3114 times:

Hey, this move isn't targeted at the people of Western Europe, just the governments and their bad policies the Russians don't like. Tit for tat. It's like kindergarden all over again. I guess we never really grew up, though it seems we think we did.  sarcastic 


"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 6, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3107 times:



Quoting PPVRA (Reply 5):
It's like kindergarden all over again. I guess we never really grew up, though it seems we think we did.

 checkmark  So it is. The big joke being that the players seem to think they are all grown up. Only the weapons systems are all grown up, the hands behind them are like a bunch of spoiled kids.


User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3094 times:
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Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
However, Russia can manipulate prices and make it more difficult for western politicians at home.

Interesting. The biggest potential price manipulator active these days is Gustav. Good Russian name, that ... Or is it German? oh well ...

Quoting Baroque (Reply 3):
Actually, I am quite partial to them myself!! But that is another story.   

 Silly Indeed. But it's been a disappointing summer so far.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 4):
I am starting to think that the above scenario may very well happen, and that the only country to come to Poland's aide will be the U.S. (assuming Obama is not president). Britain would stand up if Blair was still there, but Gordon Brown is a cowardly wuss.

Trying to relive old glories?



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 8, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3090 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 7):
Trying to relive old glories?

What??? What glory would be involved in a shooting war in heavily populated territory between the U.S. and Russia? It would be expensive and nasty. I don't want it to happen.

But (assuming the above scenario) for Russia to commit an act of war on a full NATO member without violent and immediate consequence is out of the question.

And after the dust settles, I would kick out of NATO any nation that refused to stand up and be counted. The whole point of NATO is that an attack of one of them is an attack on all, and if a country won't live up to its agreements, NATO has no use for them.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 9, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3039 times:
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Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):
The whole point of NATO is that an attack of one of them is an attack on all, and if a country won't live up to its agreements, NATO has no use for them.

Yes -- and that's why there's a NATO effort in Afghanistan. 9/11 was seen as an attack on the US and there was a corresponding reaction, given the safe-harbour the Taliban was providing for Al Qaeda. That's also why there's no NATO presence in Iraq.

But I think you are getting waaaay ahead of reality with your Russia/Poland scenario. Granted, there's a lot of sabre-rattling right now (on both sides of the issue) but it will never go beyond that, unless Washington's in-your-face approach to diplomacy matches Putin's and one of them does something really stupid. Unlikely, but based on recent history, not outside the realm of possibility unfortunately.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 10, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3036 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 9):
Granted, there's a lot of sabre-rattling right now (on both sides of the issue)

on both sides? That's like saying the police are inciting criminals to violence by wearing bullet-proof vests.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3016 times:
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Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 10):
on both sides? That's like saying the police are inciting criminals to violence by wearing bullet-proof vests.

C'mon. Your profile says you're old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis. Do you recall the US reaction to those missiles? AFAIK, that's still the closest we've come to nuclear war, and it was based on the USSR messing around in the US back yard. And do you remember the not-so-well-publicized quid pro quo? Kennedy took some missiles out of Turkey.

You can believe, if you like, that this all Putin's fault -- but these things are never as one-sided as they appear during the emotion-driven event rhetoric.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 12, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3012 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 11):
C'mon. Your profile says you're old enough to remember the Cuban missile crisis. Do you recall the US reaction to those missiles?

Do you recall the difference between a Surface-to-Air missile and a Surface-to-Surface missile with nuclear warheads?

I'll give you a hint - It was not the installation of SAMs that got the US all upset in '62. Your analogy is preposterous.

Of course if the US installed Surface-to-Surface missiles in Poland, I could perfectly understand if they got upset. But we haven't.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 2986 times:
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Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 12):
I'll give you a hint - It was not the installation of SAMs that got the US all upset in '62. Your analogy is preposterous.

You don't get it, do you.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlinePSA727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 974 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2982 times:



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
Russia has more power when it comes to manipulating prices than actual supply.

Russia needs the money from oil exports. That is their main source of state revenues.

However, Russia can manipulate prices and make it more difficult for western politicians at home. These threats are meant to manipulate prices. People seem to forget that high oil prices are good for Russia.

Oh and the naked capitalists will use ANY excuse to hyke up the price of oil even if they know Russia is bluffing

Madame, I share the same concern as you. This new threat by Russia shows that they
have no intent on solving the Georgia crisis diplomatically. It's as though they're saying
to the West, "Accept what we do or see your energy taken away."

And I think that this will work to their disadvantage in the long term. What Western
country will want to further strengthen it's ties with Russia, when it could all be taken
away from them by the whim of the Kremlin?



fly high, pay low...Germanwings!
User currently offlineScotty From UK - Scotland, joined Dec 1999, 1875 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2976 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 6):
The big joke being that the players seem to think they are all grown up. Only the weapons systems are all grown up, the hands behind them are like a bunch of spoiled kids

So its time the worlds population rose up in protest at the kids who are playing with the toys.

WE ARE THE PEOPLE AND WE SAY NO.


User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 16, posted (6 years 1 month 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2964 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 13):
You don't get it, do you.

I don't get your equaiting SAMs with nuclear missiles, no.

Please enlighten us.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineL410Turbolet From Czech Republic, joined May 2004, 5718 posts, RR: 18
Reply 17, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2884 times:

Russia's energy minister and a top oil company denied on Friday they were preparing to cut oil flows to Europe in response to threatened sanctions, a step Moscow never took even at the height of the Cold War.
...
Shmatko said the reliability of Russian supplies would not be called into question.
"We have worked for many years to gain not just the image, but the status of a reliable energy supplier to Europe and we would never let it suffer, even in this political situation," Shmatko said in Dushanbe.

http://www.iii.co.uk/news/?type=afxn...58&subject=economic&action=article

Given the experience of the previous 2-3 years with such a "reliable" supplier I'd hate see what being unreliable would look like.


User currently offlineMortyman From Norway, joined Aug 2006, 3954 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 2870 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):
And after the dust settles, I would kick out of NATO any nation that refused to stand up and be counted. The whole point of NATO is that an attack of one of them is an attack on all, and if a country won't live up to its agreements, NATO has no use for them.

I don't think that there is any NATO member that has'nt involved itself in Afghanistan after 9 /11.


But, North Americans seem to only appreciate what the UK does and look upon the rest of the contributions as not much...


There is also a few other things to take note of:

1. NATO is in Afganistan, wich is an area of the world that tradittionally is not part of the operational area of the organisation. Now it's proabably correct that NATO involves itself in Afghanistan and the rest of the wolrd, but there has'nt really been a propper discussion about this. As a result alot of NATO members are still sceptical about this new task of NATO.

2. The focus of the war on terror has been on Iraq and not on the real issue in Afganistan for the past 7 years. Particularly the USA was very quick to shift it's focus to a part of the world that had nothing to do with the war on terror and what happend on 9 /11 in New York. This has led to a very sceptical Europe and further involvment. One thing is what our politicians and soldiers think, a totally different thing is what our people at home think. As a result we have soldiers ready to go, but politicians that are siting on the fence.


User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14030 posts, RR: 62
Reply 19, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2853 times:



Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 2):
However, Russia can manipulate prices and make it more difficult for western politicians at home. These threats are meant to manipulate prices. People seem to forget that high oil prices are good for Russia.

Oh and the naked capitalists will use ANY excuse to hyke up the price of oil even if they know Russia is bluffing.

According to the German minister of economics, the German government should set up a strategic natural gas reserve similar to the existing one for oil.
Since the oil crisis in the 1970s, Germany stored a 90 day reserve of crude oil for emergencies.
Since we are now depending on natural gas, the minister suggests that the federal government of Germany should equally sore 90 days worth of natural gas. This can e.g. done in subterranean cavities in salt domes, of which many exist below the northen German plain. Total cost would be about 2 billion Euros, which would cost each citizen maybe 40 Euros per year.
Back during the 1980s, when West Berlin was connected to the Russian natural gas pipeline, the western allies insisted on keeping a one year reserve to prevent another blockede by the Russians similar to 1949 (during cold war the West Berlin government has also been hoarding a one year supply of food, drinking water, coal, coke, medications etc.). This natural gas reserve was stored in a huge cavern in a salt dome below the Grunewald forest in the former American sector.

Interestingly the gas supply companies in Germany are against this plan, possibly because such a reserve could be used by the government (which has major arguments with the gas supply companies due to their regional monoploy status and price gouging) to counteract price hikes by the gas companies. They argue that a strategic reserve would destroy competition and business, as well as increase gas prices.

http://de.news.yahoo.com/ap/20080828...tsministerium-plant-l-f8250da.html

(in German)

IMO, the additional expenses to be a little less dependent on Russia or other belligerent importers would be well spent.

Jan


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2835 times:



Quoting Mortyman (Reply 18):
1. NATO is in Afghanistan, which is an area of the world that traditionally is not part of the operational area of the organisation. Now it's probably correct that NATO involves itself in Afghanistan and the rest of the world, but there has'nt really been a proper discussion about this. As a result alot of NATO members are still sceptical about this new task of NATO.

By the same token of an attack on one is an attack on all, there should, and maybe is (in the fine print) a clause that prevents any party from being unduly provocative.

The pressure on Russia has been provocative in ways that have not served any good purpose. Any urging of Georgia would come under that heading.

Your second point Morty is so well taken and gets me so angry I will not comment. The combination of neglect and inept tactics bids fair to lose that one too.


User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 21, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2830 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 20):
clause that prevents any party from being unduly provocative.

Yes it does. NATO mandates only come into play if a member is directly attacked.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 20):
The pressure on Russia has been provocative in ways that have not served any good purpose.

Oh jeez.

The russians have done ALL the provocation so far. WTF are you talking about?



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2803 times:
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Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):
The russians have done ALL the provocation so far. WTF are you talking about?

Like I said, you don't get it. Why don't you try bringing some rationality and balance to your political positions, instead of trying to paint everything as black and white. There are very few black and white issues in geopolitics.

This piece (below) was written by a poli-sci student, but it makes some interesting points.

Georgia Doesn't Belong in Nato

"It is madness to cry foul at the simple fact of Russia's retaliation. Whatever the excesses of Russia's military response, it is monstrous to obscure the fact that Georgia initiated hostilities with an artillery assault against its own people.

If anything, United States policy toward Russia and its neighbors has helped provoke this crisis. Current leaders both here and in Europe have started to use NATO as a social club, one to which anybody can aspire to be a member -- as long as they are not Russia.

But Russia gets tense when its neighbors start piling on against it. Russia feels like we're still fighting the Cold War. Just because we won, doesn't mean we should be spoiling for a fight.


http://www.redorbit.com/news/busines...240/georgia_doesnt_belong_in_nato/

When you consider, from a historical context, that Russia has been invaded by Europe twice in the last 200 years, you might begin to understand their siege mentality. I mean, all it took for the US was one nasty attack on 9/11, and look what happened in the aftermath of that.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 23, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2800 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):
The russians have done ALL the provocation so far. WTF are you talking about?

1. Try to develop binocular vision. It is really good.

2. See post 22 above.

The first Cold War did not have the clear cut causes that you probably think it did.

http://www.historylearningsite.co.uk...causes%20of%20the%20cold%20war.htm
* American fear of communist attack
* Truman's dislike of Stalin
* Russia's fear of the American's atomic bomb
* Russia's dislike of capitalism
* Russia's actions in the Soviet zone of Germany
* America's refusal to share nuclear secrets
* Russia's expansion west into Eastern Europe + broken election promises
* Russia's fear of American attack
* Russia's need for a secure western border
* Russia's aim of spreading world communism
This feeling of suspicion lead to mutual distrust and this did a great deal to deepen the Cold War

See also
http://www.johndclare.net/cold_war3.htm
and
http://www.essortment.com/all/effectswhatcau_mmy.htm
Not as clear cut as I suspect you think.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):

Quoting Baroque (Reply 20):
clause that prevents any party from being unduly provocative.

Yes it does. NATO mandates only come into play if a member is directly attacked.

Either you are deliberately missing the point or you are being obtuse about provocation.


User currently offlineL410Turbolet From Czech Republic, joined May 2004, 5718 posts, RR: 18
Reply 24, posted (6 years 1 month 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2757 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 21):
The russians have done ALL the provocation so far. WTF are you talking about?

Come on, you've been long enough on a.net to notice his notoriety of playing apologists for the "other side"... regardless whether it's Hamas, Putin or Ahmadiwantjihad. As long as it's anti-US he will defend it.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 22):
This piece (below) was written by a poli-sci student

A very bad student one has to say, but considering how infested with the left-wing leaning faculty the US universities are it's not that surprisng. If anyone didn't get away from Cold War modus operandi of thinking it was Russia. The very first sentence just proves his superficial knowledge. The conflict of course did not start out of nowhere on Aug. 7 but way back in the early 1990s and failure of Kremlin to get over the fact that the empire held together by force and half of Europe they forced themselves into is their no more.


25 PSA727 : Yeah, Russia is like a male stalker, who can't get over the fact that his ex-girlfriend doesn't want to see him anymore. Hey, Valdimir, she doesn't w
26 Scotty : but sometimes even the ugly guys have to be let into the party, otherwise they may stand outside shouting, swearing and bricking your windows (well i
27 Baroque : Memo to self. Johnny is the only one in step. All others are out of step. Now that is simple, why does it cause some anxiety? Second memo to self. Irr
28 MD11Engineer : Ok, so what is the solution? As Putin stated, in his opinn the breakup of the Soviet Union (which actually means the Czarist empire) was the biggest
29 Baroque : There probably is no simple and satisfactory solution, but moving slowly and taking thought might be a good start. When the rush was on to recognise
30 Iowaman : I highly doubt they would cut the flow off long-term, that is a huge amount of revenue lost to Russia.
31 Scotty : Even at the time of Kosovo independence Russia indicated strongly that this would lead to a reappraisal of its relationship with Abkhazia and South O
32 MD11Engineer : So what will you do if you have two populations on a small piece of real estate? One wants to be connected to one neighbouring country, while the oth
33 Baroque : Negotiations anyone? Notwithstanding agreeing with Scotty in reply 31 about Bliar (spelling intended) he did make a signal contribution to resolution
34 AverageUser : Jan, there is no need to be afraid of Russian natural gas. It answers for some 3/4 of our municipal network's energy needs in two combination power p
35 MD11Engineer : Sounds logical, but what do you do with people who have a mentality about "your great-grandfather killed my great-grandfather's donkey"? From what I
36 MD11Engineer : Sure, the Russians will not boycott Western Europe for a long period of time, but, as I said, a cutoff for a few weeks in winter will be more painful
37 Baroque : My ignorance is showing. Do you not have any reservoirs that are charged before "the season"? I am amazed. There are plenty of nice structures under
38 MD11Engineer : Cold War West Berlin used to have a reservoir with enough gas to last the city for one year, though I don't know if it is still being used. It is a h
39 PSA727 : Isn't it funny how history is starting to repeat itself? If only the characters were different.
40 Baroque : Having a year's supply would be a bit expensive these days compared with a couple of decades ago but it would certainly mean that a threat to disrupt
41 MD11Engineer : Sure, the oil wells in Lower Saxony around Hannover and the border area to the Netherlands are exactly this, oil caught on top of salt domes. West Be
42 AverageUser : I don't think the current EU regulations would allow any outright state interference in a working EU-wide free market branch of economy any longer. T
43 MD11Engineer : The problem is that the German energy market isn't really a free market, but is controlled by those 4 regional monopolists. You have to imagine Germa
44 GDB : Since Russia's current strengthened economic position is pretty much based on fossil fuel exports to the EU, cutting the flow would also cut off the m
45 AverageUser : Then there's an urgent need for the Commission to raid their offices so that the companies can be sued. If you ask me, money seems do the talking her
46 Babybus : Let Russia keep its stupid oil and gas. Without buyers it has no value. What are the Russians going to do with it? It's about time the West got a litt
47 Baroque : Yes but about as useful a thought as shouting out "GET THEE TO A NUNNERY" at a rave party.
48 Mortyman : Love it, just love it
49 Babybus : At a rave party they wouldn't hear you. Many countries have oil now. Ireland for one. Not as much as other countries but more than they need for a ti
50 IAirAllie : Anyone getting Oil from the Russians should have anticipated this and should have contingency plans in place. You cannot trust the Russians.
51 ME AVN FAN : - IF they do so, also the delivery of payments from Western Europe for these deliveries over coming days might become restricted. - - the Fuel-Surcha
52 Arrow : That's what I was trying to say - a little hamfisted I guess. There was no Al Qaeda in Iraq. There is now, of course.[Edited 2008-09-07 22:52:57]
53 ME AVN FAN : - There in fact WAS el-Qaeda in Iraq, in that territory shielded by the USA against the Baghdad government. - Apparently as a part of the anti-secula
54 Post contains links and images L410Turbolet : I'm not sure about Poland but there is still the IKL pipeline as a contingency for the Czech Rep.
55 ME AVN FAN : Your map shows that I forgot the seaport of Rostock, which might be quite important in case of Russia getting mad. But yes, that pipeline also might
56 IAirAllie : I don't know who said that? Not me. I just said they should. Doesn't mean they don't.
57 ME AVN FAN : By saying they should, you hinted to the idea that they did NOT. While most actually DID. - - Sure, and in case of trouble, your country has to organ
58 IAirAllie : Uh no. You are reading way too much into what I wrote. I meant exactly what I said.
59 MD11Engineer : Don't forget that there still exist various military NATO pipelines (originally built to supply troops in case of war, I know there is one leading to
60 Baroque : Well I can reveal Plan #1 of countries that normally use Russian oil, they will buy it on the open market. I can also reveal the immediate effect of
61 YOWza : Any cut in supply would be temporary and more for a scare tactic than anything. After all the oligarchs need cash in hand to buy A340s and estates in
62 MD11Engineer : I think that since the oil crisis of 1973-74, most industrialised countries have strategic reserves of oil, at least to cover a few weeks to months (
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