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$50 P/BBL OIL In 09?  
User currently offlineItalianFlyer From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 1099 posts, RR: 2
Posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1958 times:

I am listening to the wonks on CNBC discussing the global economy's controlled flight into terrain. They are now saying that fifty dollar a barrel oil by early 09 is a real possibility.

Blessing? Curse? Discuss...

16 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineFrontierflyer From United States of America, joined Aug 2007, 216 posts, RR: 1
Reply 1, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1862 times:

It won't matter if the economy ends up slamming into the mountain.

User currently offlineEXAAUADL From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 1736 times:

depending how steep the recession is, it might be lower. On the plus side the recession will hopefully put Venezuela and Iran out of business

User currently offline2175301 From United States of America, joined May 2007, 1037 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 1695 times:

I don't believe it....

In my opinion the reason the price is so low now is that the rest of the world wanted a better price for the US elections and could manipulate it for the short term to the current values.

None of the base economics have changed for the US or the $ Dollar. In fact, an argument is that the base economics of the US is worse from the credit crisis.

Thus, I expect the price of oil to rise after the US elections.

Perhaps they meant $150 per barrel oil...


User currently offlineGuitrThree From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2042 posts, RR: 8
Reply 4, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1659 times:

Never going to happen. Russia needs high priced oil to finance its own government. If oil hits the $80 range watch out. If it hits the $60 range you can count on it. Something will be done by Russia, be it another Georgia type invasion or pipeline interruption, they will do all they can to inflate the price. Yet another reason we need to start drilling YESTERDAY.


As Seen On FlightRadar24! Radar ==> F-KBNA5
User currently offlineFlyf15 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1642 times:



Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 4):
Yet another reason we need to start drilling YESTERDAY.

Yeah lets use up all our oil while its cheap. Wait to have to buy other people's oil until its really expensive. You know, make sure that we run ourselves out of options now instead of later and in doing so, pump as many dollars overseas later on for more expensive oil as we can.


Why not just use up all their oil now when its cheap and save our oil here at home for when its really scarce and really expensive. We're going to be wishing we had oil here in the US in a few decades when its $400/barrel.


User currently offlineGuitrThree From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2042 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1623 times:



Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 5):
Yeah lets use up all our oil while its cheap. Wait to have to buy other people's oil until its really expensive. You know, make sure that we run ourselves out of options now instead of later and in doing so, pump as many dollars overseas later on for more expensive oil as we can.

Uh huh. Read my tag line. You're not using common sense. When do we decide to drill? When the foreign wells run dry? Have you not seen the gas lines in the SE USA of the last few weeks where gas was almost impossible to get? Are you really claiming we should wait until the rest of the world runs dry? The left loves to run around claiming it's going to take 10 years to get a drop from all this new drilling. Using your line of:

Quoting Flyf15 (Reply 5):
We're going to be wishing we had oil here in the US in a few decades when its $400/barrel.

Do we wait until it gets there, or do we do something now? We have reserves that will last for years and years. Why do you insist on being held hostage to every country that hates us? Do you get to decide when the price is high enough to start drilling, or what? I say introduce our oil into the world market and tell these world dictators to go take a dump.



As Seen On FlightRadar24! Radar ==> F-KBNA5
User currently offlineAcheron From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1599 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (5 years 10 months 2 days ago) and read 1602 times:



Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
I say introduce our oil into the world market and tell these world dictators to go take a dump.

The US eats about 25% of the world's oir production(including their own) and somehow you think you can use shove your own oil into the market without affecting yourselves?.

So, tell me how do you plan to sell your own oil in the market and make up for it in your own cosumption while not to buying any more foreign oil?.
You'd have to take everybody's(or at least those don't really need one) SUV away, for starters, to reduce consumption noticeably.

And still, I doubt it will be enough to tell anybody to "go take a dump".


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2500 posts, RR: 7
Reply 8, posted (5 years 10 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1573 times:



Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
I say introduce our oil into the world market and tell these world dictators to go take a dump.

I like the 2nd part of your statement, but it won't happen by doing the 1st. The only way to tell the OPEC countries to quite literally pound sand is to develop alternatives to oil so that we are truly independent of them. I don't know what those alternatives are, I hope some very smart people come up with and develop them. But until that happens, we aren't telling anyone who has the oil we depend on to go take a dump. Why do you think we're so friendly with Saudi Arabia. I mean 16 of the 9/11 terrorists were Saudi's. Why did we not invade there instead of Afghanistan & Iraq??????
Anyway, back to the topic - I don't see oil back to $50/bbl, but if the volitility in that market over the past 18 months has taught us anything, it's never say never.


User currently offlineCsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 9, posted (5 years 10 months 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 1565 times:



Quoting 2175301 (Reply 3):
None of the base economics have changed for the US or the $ Dollar.

huh?
Unemployment is going up, consumption is going down, ergo, demand is going down. If demand in the US is going down, demand for oil in India and China is going down.

REmember prices were historically very low in the Great Depression because nobody had any money to buy anything. Inflation was running very high before the sharp deep recession in the early 80s. I'll say one thing for depressions and recessions. They sure kill high commodity prices. Happens every time.

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 4):
Russia needs high priced oil to finance its own government. If oil hits the $80 range watch out. If it hits the $60 range you can count on it. Something will be done by Russia, be it another Georgia type invasion or pipeline interruption, they will do all they can to inflate the price. Yet another reason we need to start drilling YESTERDAY.

yeah they will but if there is no demand there is no demand. Plus let us say we drill for all the oil we've got tomorrow. Which I am frankly not terribly opposed to. What do you think would happen to the price of oil? How is oil priced? How do the traders in New York and Dubai price their futures contracts? Just curious if the drill now people know how the oil business is actually run. What would happen initially is... NOT MUCH! because it would take a decade to have the oil on the market. Futures contracts are not ten years in the future. More like six months to one year. (I think there might be two-year contracts will have to look it up)

Ok then what happens. Well the oil is added to the GLOBAL market. It is impossible to segregate US from foreign oil unless you want a Soviet style command economy. Gulf and Shell and Exxon/Mobil are GLOBAL players. They'll sell that oil to China as easily as they'l sell to you and there isn't a damn thing anybody can do about it. SO whatever the price of oils is when that comes on line will go down by how much? Let's say 10%, although I doubt any change from normal fluctuations can be noticed. Well what will happen? Can anyone take a guess? Beuller? Beuller?

Consumption will rise, people who conserved might not as much. People who looked to shale oil or oil that is hard to extract won't bother. So consumption rises, demand rises, and hen what happens, well oil goes back to where it was.

To wit. The "Drill now" as a solution thesis suffers from at least three flaws.
1) Oil ain't coming for a decade
2) You can't separate out different country's oil
3) Lowering price will increase demand.

You'd think, because a lot of the drill now people are conservatives, they might want to read a book on basic economics. You know crakc open some Milton Freidman, Friedrich von Hayek.

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
We have reserves that will last for years and years. Why do you insist on being held hostage to every country that hates us?

Where are these reserves? We have reserves, but the comment makes it sound like we're a North American Saudi Arabia. We have reserves, but we don't have bounteous reserves for years and years. Much of the reserves we have are suspected and not proven.

We are held hostage by foreign oil because we consume a lot and they are too willing to sell to us. Exploiting the MAXIMUM of our domestic oil will be a mere blip. The equivalent of ordering super-sized big mac and super-sized fries -- and a Diet Coke.


PS this is also not factoring in the differences in oil quality, difficulties in getting to the oil, costs to refine the oil. Saudi and Iraqi oil is much easier to refine than Mexican or Venezuelan oil. The Oil Sands of Alberta is exceedingly difficult, polluting and energy intensive, and the break even point is where oil is as high as it is here.

Much of Mexico and the Gulf of Mexico as well as Venezuela suffer from salt and water intrusion which contaminates the oil and makes it harder to refine. An oil well is considered tapped out when, by some estimates, there is still 50% of the original oil left. It is just too diffuse in the rock or contaminated by oil. Fact of life. Better technology will get more of it, especially if prices rise, the extra costs will be worth it, but nobody is going to get 100%.


Believe it or not there is oil in PA and New York, the origin of the global petroleum industry (They don't call it Penn-zoil) for nothing, but the easy oil has been extracted long ago. Any oil left would cost far more than what you would get. I would assume if oil got high enough you can begin to try to recover that oil.


Went to school to be a Geologist, and while not practicing, (and not majoring in petroleum geology, but rather coastal geology) I frankly know a lot about this subject for a layperson. I am sure a lot knwo more than me but frankly most of the people in this thread - don't.

Now class, in addition to Friedman and Hayek, I want you to read The Prize, by Daniel yergin, and Guide to Petroleum Geology, Exploration, Drilling and Production by Hyne and Hyne.

Also Elements of Petroleum Geology and Petroleum Geoscience

Plus you need to know some stratigraphy and structural geology so you might want to get,
Principles of Stratigraphy (really the best intro to Strat text)

Now anybody want to know how barrier islands form or what an orogeny is? How about why Long Island beaches are blood-red after a nor'easter? Come ON!!!!!



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13518 posts, RR: 62
Reply 10, posted (5 years 10 months 7 hours ago) and read 1434 times:
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Quoting Csavel (Reply 9):
Oil ain't coming for a decade

Funny, that same mentality is what was argued against expanded drilling by the Clinton Administration ten years ago.

Having that extra production capacity coming on-line around now sure would have been nice...



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineVonRichtofen From Canada, joined Nov 2000, 4627 posts, RR: 36
Reply 11, posted (5 years 10 months 6 hours ago) and read 1416 times:

Are the people saying oil will be $50/bbl in 2009 the same ones that said it would be $250/bbl by now back in June?


Word
User currently offlineMWHCVT From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2008, 683 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (5 years 10 months 4 hours ago) and read 1386 times:

At the risk of sounding incredibly hypocritical at this very moment in time (As the Driver of a 4.0L V8 Petrol Range Rover) I have to say that this period of $140/Barrel Oil will be a major blessing in disguise for American public.

The time when you can drive a 8L+ engined truck as a standard is well and truly over, nowhere other in northern America do motor manufactures produce such a wide range of cars/trucks that are so fuel in-efficent. In Europe the majority of vehicles can easily achieve a basic mileage of 30+mpg with a large number of city cars doubling these numbers and this in not just diesel but also petrol cars too

So if oil were to drop this low I think it would be good for the struggling economy but I hope people continue to attempt to reduce there dependence on Oil. Not that I believe oil will ever go below the $70/barrel again I think that, that time has past into history.

But on a personal note a sub £4.50 gallon of petrol would be  cloudnine  fyi thats around $9 currently at my local station its around £5.60 or around $11/gal



Must think up a new one soon, slow moving brain trying to get into gear ;)
User currently offlineCsavel From United States of America, joined Jan 2001, 1362 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (5 years 10 months 3 hours ago) and read 1377 times:



Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 10):

Quoting Csavel (Reply 9):
Oil ain't coming for a decade

Funny, that same mentality is what was argued against expanded drilling by the Clinton Administration ten years ago.

Having that extra production capacity coming on-line around now sure would have been nice...

I'm not arguing against drilling. I actually think drilling can be done environmentally friendly, can provide jobs.

I am saying that people who believe that opening up ANWR or the US continental shelves to drilling will eventually make more than a cosmetic difference in the price of oil or on our dependence of foreign oil are deluded, naive, and have no idea how the international economy works.

To really get out of this mess, we need to build, baby, build. Nuclear power plants, that is, and convert as much of our energy, from plants, to housing in the Northeast, to electric cars to electricity got by those nuclear power plants.



I may be ugly. I may be an American. But don't call me an ugly American.
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8416 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (5 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 1268 times:



Quoting Csavel (Reply 13):
To really get out of this mess, we need to build, baby, build. Nuclear power plants, that is, and convert as much of our energy, from plants, to housing in the Northeast, to electric cars to electricity got by those nuclear power plants.

Or, we could just conserve, baby, conserve. Mainly by increasing taxes on electricity, gasoline and diesel. Especially as oil prices are falling, we need to keep gas taxes high so people don't by 6-liter plus V8 vehicles to drive to the mall, and then burger king.

People started behaving a lot more rationally with $4.20 gasoline. Buying small, sensible cars that improve our energy security and national trade balance. These are great things. This is why fuel taxes make sense. The national highway trust fund is bankrupt, another reason a tax is justifiable.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2500 posts, RR: 7
Reply 15, posted (5 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1211 times:



Quoting Flighty (Reply 14):
Quoting Csavel (Reply 13):
To really get out of this mess, we need to build, baby, build. Nuclear power plants, that is, and convert as much of our energy, from plants, to housing in the Northeast, to electric cars to electricity got by those nuclear power plants.

Or, we could just conserve, baby, conserve.

You're both right - we need to build nuclear power plants, work on alternative fuels and the infrastructure to support them (for example; a hydrogen car is useless if there's nowhere to go to fill it up) and we need to conserve existing resources as well. We can do this without being un-comfortable or terribly inconvenienced. If you're not towing a trailer or racing at Indy or Talledega, do you really need a 400 HP engine?


User currently offlineAaron747 From Japan, joined Aug 2003, 8033 posts, RR: 26
Reply 16, posted (5 years 9 months 4 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1207 times:



Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
We have reserves that will last for years and years. Why do you insist on being held hostage to every country that hates us?

I fully agree...but...where was this argument 25 years ago?



If you need someone to blame / throw a rock in the air / you'll hit someone guilty
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