Fonseca33 From United States of America, joined Mar 2008, 78 posts, RR: 0 Posted (4 years 7 months 5 days 2 hours ago) and read 1849 times:
Seen the currency market?
I just woke up to see the Euro at $1.28, the Pound at $1.63, and many other currencies at multiyear lows. The Yen is the only currency that is stronger as a whole at this point.
Who knew. Shows how interesting the currency market is.
Of course, the main reason for $ appreciation is due to expectations that the ECB and others will slash interest rates, the fact that the European currencies were vastly overvalued to start with (just like in the mid 90's), and the huge demand in dollars brought upon by its safe haven/reserve status, mostly into US Debt (AAA).
Europe is still expensive to travel to, though it is now 25% cheaper than just a few months ago!
Andz From South Africa, joined Feb 2004, 8298 posts, RR: 11 Reply 2, posted (4 years 7 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 1828 times:
There is always a downside. Our currency has slid badly against all currencies but mostly against the dollar. 3 months ago it was at R7.50 to the dollar, today it is almost R10.50. Economists reckon the Rand is undervalued by about 40% at the moment.
After Monday and Tuesday even the calendar says WTF...
KiwiinOz From New Zealand, joined Oct 2005, 2029 posts, RR: 5 Reply 3, posted (4 years 7 months 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 1827 times:
We have been looking at buying a house in Australia this year. Have had our eye on one in particular.
Being in HK, our interest has been how much the house would cost us in HK$, which is pegged to the US.
4-5 months ago, this house would have cost us HK$4.56 million. Today, $3.12 million. Nearly 1.5 mill saving just as a result of the swing in currency!!!
Planesarecool From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2001, 4089 posts, RR: 13 Reply 5, posted (4 years 7 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1787 times:
Good news for me. I bought £500 worth of US$ in June, which got me $960. As my flights were cancelled when Zoom went bust, I still have that money, which I can trade in today for a healthy £80 profit.
Looks like us Europeans will have to find somewhere else to go to stock up on cheap goods.
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 8, posted (4 years 7 months 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1699 times:
Interesting stuff, this currency watching.
A long time ago here a fellow from Canada opined that the US dollar was in a "turd filled toilet" that it was never going to get out of, and that it was something of a mark of moral superiority-despite the fact that historically speaking currency exchange rates vary a lot over time and according to factors that have not much to do with being morally superior.
Right now the loonie is back about where it was before the runup started. Wherever will Canada go shopping?
As my mother always said, "time wounds all heels."
AM744 From Mexico, joined Jun 2001, 1689 posts, RR: 0 Reply 9, posted (4 years 7 months 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1647 times:
Quoting Andz (Reply 2): Our currency has slid badly against all currencies but mostly against the dollar. 3 months ago it was at R7.50 to the dollar, today it is almost R10.50
Kent350787 From Australia, joined May 2008, 888 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (4 years 7 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1623 times:
I don't get the currency markets! Last month the AUD almost hit parity with the greenback, and was the best it had been for years with nearly every currency.
Now, even though the Australian economy seems to be the least like a clusterf**k (I assume that's the technical term in common use these days) of the G20 economies, it is seen a "risky" currency and has been sold down by almost 25% against the greenback, although it's coming back a little against other currencies.
Arrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2582 posts, RR: 2 Reply 11, posted (4 years 7 months 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 1589 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 8): A long time ago here a fellow from Canada opined that the US dollar was in a "turd filled toilet" that it was never going to get out of, and that it was something of a mark of moral superiority-despite the fact that historically speaking currency exchange rates vary a lot over time and according to factors that have not much to do with being morally superior.
Probably me, although I don't recognize the metaphor. But if you go back far enough I'm sure I've said lots of even more outrageous things that turned out to be BS. Fortunately, I rarely put my money where my mouth is.
But be careful. I'll keep your note on file and trot it out when the US dollar tanks again -- which it surely will if I live long enough.
On the bright side: I just got back from two weeks in Hawaii that was 90% paid for last July when the loonie was at par. And I've got a bunch of accounts receivable in US dollars and UK pounds. O frabjous day!
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 14, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1458 times:
Quoting Arrow (Reply 11): Probably me, although I don't recognize the metaphor. But if you go back far enough I'm sure I've said lots of even more outrageous things that turned out to be BS. Fortunately, I rarely put my money where my mouth is.
Nahhhh. It wasn't you. I've sold the occasional wolf cookie myself.
What happened was when I trotted out the chart that more or less said about what you've said , that it depends on what day it is and all that he suddenly lost interest in the argument-er, discussion.
I mean, you understand about moral superiority and all that, doncha?
Currency exchange rate discussions reminds me of a song we used to sing in Boy Scouts about a bajillion years ago:
The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up the hill,
And marched them down again.
For when you're up, you're up,
And when you're down you're down.
And when you're only halfway up.
You're neither up or down.
Arrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2582 posts, RR: 2 Reply 15, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 1448 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 14): I mean, you understand about moral superiority and all that, doncha?
Yup -- there's lots to spare up here, although the economic chapter is looking a little tattered these days. At least our banks are sound.
Just got back from the bank where my 750 pound cheque netted me $1495. I shoulda waited a couple of says to get it past 1500, Oh well. Next one will be in US dollars, so keep that loonie tumbling ...
Great song. Wonder if the Duke of Lancaster wrote it.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 16, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 1430 times:
Quoting Arrow (Reply 15): At least our banks are sound.
Yes, there's that to be said for the Maple Leaf Republic. Sound conservative banking is a good idea, and I'm pleased that me and the wife use credit unions exclusively. The bank that ended up with our mortgage did not go in for a lot of the razzle dazzle the last few years, and they're starting to look like smart people.
AverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 17, posted (4 years 7 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 1395 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 14): Currency exchange rate discussions reminds me of a song we used to sing in Boy Scouts about a bajillion years ago:
The grand old Duke of York,
He had ten thousand men,
He marched them up the hill,
And marched them down again
It should not remind you of anything of recent times, really. The outward appearance is the same as in the past dollar rallies, but this time it's a reflection of a "once-in-a-century event" (Greenspan). This is not a "return to business as usual" by no means. It's extraorndinary times now we're living in.
Arrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2582 posts, RR: 2 Reply 18, posted (4 years 7 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1337 times:
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 17): This is not a "return to business as usual" by no means. It's extraorndinary times now we're living in.
And here's an analyst suggesting that the precipitous drop in the value of the loonie might move in the other direction just as fast. He has an interesting take on the cause
from the Globe & Mail:
The Canadian dollar could quickly recover more than half the massive losses it has sustained this month once banks, hedge funds and other big investors no longer have to buy vast quantities of greenbacks and yen to cover short positions in those currencies, CIBC World Markets said Friday.
“It's not interest differentials that are driving the foreign exchange move,” CIBC senior economist Avery Shenfeld said in a note to clients, as the loonie was hovering at between about 78.50 cents (U.S.) and 78.70 cents in midday trading, down more than 15 cents from the beginning of October. “Instead, it's a wave of ‘forced' U.S. dollar and yen buying to cover short positions created by other asset price developments.”
But this wrenching process could be over “quite soon” and bring a “significant snap-back” for some of the many currencies that have plunged against their U.S. and Japanese counterparts.
“For the C$, the last five or ten cents of decline might be reversed as fast as they came, with further gains in the latter half of next year as the global economy and commodities rebound,” Mr. Shenfeld said.
Wouldn't it be nice if you could accurately predict all this -- you'd be very rich.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
Arrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2582 posts, RR: 2 Reply 19, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1190 times:
From today's Globe & Mail. As predicted:
The dollar overcame morning turbulence and took off again Friday, gaining 1.25 cents to 83.75 (U.S) in afternoon trading, capping a wild week.
The loonie had started the day on a low note, dropping three-quarters of a cent – to 81.23 – in early trading Friday on the heels of weak economic reports from the United States and Canada and falling crude oil prices.
By noon, however, the dollar had recovered and resumed its upward trajectory, building on gains from Monday's close of 77.59 cents.
Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
AverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 21, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1121 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 20): must realize that its primary purpose is to sell the guy's books
Well he just might have struck gold -- but if selling books on an impending Armageddon is the best option for a banking professional we better run for the hills...
Dougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 22, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 1088 times:
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 21): Well he just might have struck gold -- but if selling books on an impending Armageddon is the best option for a banking professional we better run for the hills...
I do not put a whole lot of stock in the musings of people who are that desperate to sell their own books. On that subject whatever happened to the guy who wrote "Dow 36,000" a couple years ago?
MadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10243 posts, RR: 40 Reply 23, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 1067 times:
The US Dollar will probably take a hyke after the US Presidential elections are done with, whoever wins does not matter, the currency will go up. Just wait.
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
AverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Reply 24, posted (4 years 6 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1049 times:
Quoting Dougloid (Reply 22): I do not put a whole lot of stock in the musings of people who are that desperate to sell their own books.
First of all, I thought it was very American to sell, even better to sell your own book, and in the recent years extend marketing to the net. Americans are seldom desperate, are they not?
He actually has a publishing house: http://store.kaptest.com/kappub_home.jhtml
And mind you, he was on-line with the correct prediction well in advance.
It seems the book is going to be translated into Japanese and Korean now.
Here's Ch. 1 of the updated edition as a sample. Readable? Factually correct? The reviews all classified Dougloid-junk AA+ or what?
And most importantly was he / is he likely wrong?
25 Dougloid: I'm nor really up on what he's saying there and I do not have the time to sort it out just yet. what I was remarking on is the connection between wha
26 AverageUser: So you did not follow the link I gave to Ch. 1 "the debt"? I think you should, it's an excellent intoduction to the mortgage crisis. Would you find a
27 Dougloid: Yes. I did, after I had attended to other matters that are more pressing-like getting something to eat and seeing what was on the tube tonight. Time
28 AverageUser: Glad you could find the time, and that since you're in the business, you did not find anything badly missing in the 1st chapter of the book factwise.
29 Dougloid: I'm from the common sense school of economics. My guess-hell, my opinion, is, that the knowledge was out there but people were too busy playing finan
30 Arrow: That looks like someone with common sense was at the controls -- a rarity these days. I remember back in the early 80s when the last housing bubble b
31 Dougloid: What that points to, of course, is that if you're in debt you do have a lot of power over the people who lent you the money. As it happened one of th
32 AverageUser: Did you btw warn people around you loudly about that state of affairs? It's not a great secret that much of the subprime business rested on financing
33 Dougloid: First of all, let's study that map. It's a map of current account balance, which is defined as: "...the sum of the balance of trade (exports minus im
34 Arrow: I agree with you on that. For most of my working life, banks have been prepared to lend me far more money than I would be comfortable borrowing, but
35 Baroque: Not a correction more an a.net modification. They just booked on Air Icarus.
36 AverageUser: I found another: Definition: The current account balance is the difference between a country's savings and its investment. "[If the current account b
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