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2008 U.S. Senate & Congressional Races  
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2064 times:

Moderators;
Since there isn't an official Congressional election thread, I decided to start this one.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../nc/north_carolina_senate-910.html



Democrats are expected to make huge gains in the Senate in this election cycle. Many incumbent Republicans are finding themselves facing tough challengers and in some cases, trailing their Democratic opponents.
I was listening to N.P.R. (National Public Radio) this morning and was surprise to hear that Senator Mitch McConnell (R-KY) is in trouble in his home state.

The only incumbent Democratic senator that was ever consider vulnerable is now leading by as much as 20% in the polls. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) is expected to win re-election as the GOP has pulled funds out of that Senate race.

Ted Stevens (R-AK) is facing a potential conviction and is trailing in some polls against Anchorage mayor Mark Begich despite Sarah Palin being the GOP VP pick for McCain who leads in Alaska.

Al Franken is leading Senator Norm Coleman (R-MN)

Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) is surprisingly behind in the polls in her bid for re-election.

Georgia Senate race has tighten up as well. If there is any Republican I'd like to see go down is Saxby Chambliss (R-GA). I'll never forget his disgusting TV commercial in 2002 depicting Senator Max Cleland who was a triple amputee that proudly served our country in Vietnam photochopped with Osma Bin Laden in his lap. Never mind the fact that Saxby Chambliss was a draft dodger himself. That is one scumbag I'd love to see defeated.

Democrats are leading in so many Senate races that I don't have time to eleborate on all of those races.
Here is a list of expected pick ups.

New Hampshire
Virginia
Colorado
New Mexico
Minnesota
Oregon
Alaska
North Carolina
Mississippi a long shot
Georgia a long shot

Did I forget any?


Bring back the Concorde
45 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8866 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2062 times:

The last time any party had the House, the Presidency, and a 60-vote majority in the Senate was in 1977-1979, and we all know what a wonderful success that was. The Community Reinvestment Act was passed during that congress, and that was the root of the financial disaster we have recently been experiencing.


Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineDvk From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1058 posts, RR: 1
Reply 2, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 2061 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
The Community Reinvestment Act was passed during that congress, and that was the root of the financial disaster we have recently been experiencing.

If this is true, then why did it take 30 years for the current mess to happen? This is just a smokescreen for Republicans to try to deflect and evade any responsibility for the current crisis.



I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8866 posts, RR: 24
Reply 3, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2049 times:



Quoting Dvk (Reply 2):
If this is true, then why did it take 30 years for the current mess to happen?

Take some economics courses and re-examine your question.

Okay, here is a shortcut. The CRA gave Fannie and Freddie the mission to make mortgages more affordable to poor Americans (i.e. give mortgages to people who banks believe are not capable of handling a mortgage). By the end of the Clinton Adminstration, Fannie and Freddie's orders from HUD were that a full 50% of their mortgages must be sub-prime.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineDtwclipper From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2043 times:



Quoting Superfly (Thread starter):
Did I forget any

Yes, the idiot Michelle Bachmann, MN 6 is up for re-election and may loose her seat after some comments she made.

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=DNZEcdXHvsU


User currently offlineAirCop From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 2033 times:

Is a red state turning blue. Here in Arizona, it appears that the congressional delegation will be split 5/5, in just 2004 the Democrats only held two seats in the house from our state. I forgot to add that the pickup will be in the 1st District now held by Rep Renzi the congressman that currently is facing fraud charges, and has no seats on any congressional committee.

[Edited 2008-10-23 11:14:48]

User currently offlineDvk From United States of America, joined Jun 2000, 1058 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 2021 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 3):
Take some economics courses and re-examine your question.

I have studied the allegation about the CRA, and the majority of subprime loans were made by institutions that were NOT regulated by the CRA. A significant minority of subprime loans were made by institutions only minimally regulated by the CRA. No additional economics courses are necessary to understand that blaming this whole crisis on the CRA and, even more tangentially, the Carter administration, is grasping at straws. Fannie and Freddie were only part of the problem.



I'm not dumb. I just have a command of thoroughly useless information.
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 7, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2011 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
The last time any party had the House, the Presidency, and a 60-vote majority in the Senate was in 1977-1979, and we all know what a wonderful success that was.

Keep in mind, Jimmy Carter was a true 'outsider' to a fault. He butted heads with members of his own party when he got to Washington. To say that it would be a repeat under Obama is silly.

Quoting Dtwclipper (Reply 4):
Yes, the idiot Michelle Bachmann, MN 6 is up for re-election and may loose her seat after some comments she made.

Yes she needs to be thrown out ASAP.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8866 posts, RR: 24
Reply 8, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 1997 times:



Quoting Dvk (Reply 6):
Fannie and Freddie were only part of the problem.

Granted, but they created a market that did not naturally exist, and mortgage lenders bought into it. The crisis would not have happened without CRA.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 7):
Keep in mind, Jimmy Carter was a true 'outsider' to a fault. He butted heads with members of his own party when he got to Washington. To say that it would be a repeat under Obama is silly.

True. Obama will be under the complete control of Pelosi and Ried.

On the bright side, they will certainly screw things up so badly that the country will swing hard right in 4 years. The downside is that it will be very expensive to repair, and at that point you will have nearly half the population recieving some form of welfare/gov't checks. That will be tough to reverse.

I remember a quote about when people are able to vote to give themselves money at the expense of a minority, they will continue to do so until the minority says, "screw this" and either leaves or stops doing whatever it is that makes the money. And then you have a bunch of dependant whiners bitching about where "their" money went.

It appears we have reached that point in our history.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 9, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 1996 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):
Obama will be under the complete control of Pelosi and Ried.

You are funny.  Smile

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):
they will certainly screw things up so badly that the country will swing hard right in 4 years.

I didn't know that you were a fortune teller. Perhaps Wall Street could have used your insight a few years ago. With the Democrats having a super-majority, they will do everything they can to turn things around and get our economy back on track.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):
The downside is that it will be very expensive to repair, and at that point you will have nearly half the population recieving some form of welfare/gov't checks. That will be tough to reverse.

I remember a quote about when people are able to vote to give themselves money at the expense of a minority, they will continue to do so until the minority says, "screw this" and either leaves or stops doing whatever it is that makes the money. And then you have a bunch of dependant whiners bitching about where "their" money went.

What you are saying has no correlation to anything Obama has ever advocated or promised.
What if Obama and the Democrats are successful?



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinePlanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3529 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 1994 times:

I'm hoping Dan Seals can upset Mark Kirk here on the North Shore.

I actually think Mark Kirk is a good pol, but I'm almost always in favor of someone new stepping in for someone incumbent after they've had a few terms under their belt, and this definitely fits the bill.

Still, if Kirk wins, I won't be too upset.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 8):

Granted, but they created a market that did not naturally exist, and mortgage lenders bought into it. The crisis would not have happened without CRA.

They created a market with a huge demand from the populace, and obviously, the mortgage companies themselves.

Saying the CRA is the reason for this mess is basically analogous to the anti-gun argument (make it illegal to own a gun and all gun crime will disappear) - which you're most likely not in favor of.

The CRA did a world of good to lots of folks who got the right kind of mortgage for their first home. To blame that piece of legislation instead of the banks, mortgage brokers and other funds that bought into the subprime market and encouraged the mortgage buyers that they could afford such loans is ridiculous.



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 11, posted (5 years 12 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 1991 times:



Quoting Planespotting (Reply 10):
The CRA did a world of good to lots of folks who got the right kind of mortgage for their first home.

 checkmark 
...and most of them still own their homes and even paid off in most cases. That was when the prime interest rate was around 19% too.

Quoting Planespotting (Reply 10):
I'm hoping Dan Seals can upset Mark Kirk here on the North Shore.

Ain't going to happen.  Smile



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinePlanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3529 posts, RR: 5
Reply 12, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 1927 times:



Quoting Superfly (Reply 11):
Ain't going to happen. Smile

Kirk only won by a few percentage points in '04 ... In this election year, with plenty of minority voters in Waukegan and North Chicago going out to vote for Barack (not to mention the general groundswell of pro-Obama voters in Illinois), it just might be time for Kirky to say goodbye.



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineJohnboy From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 2594 posts, RR: 7
Reply 13, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1919 times:

I never thought McConnell was that hard-core of a wacko Republican initially....he was the county-judge executive of Jefferson County (Louisville) prior to his Senate race, and was fairly moderate back in the day. Especially since there have always been whispers about his sexual orientation. I still get the impression he's not that "into" the crap that the rest of fundie pack is spouting.

Have to laugh at some of the speeches he's giving though...basically the old "if you don't vote for me, all the pork i've given you for the last several years will go out the window" argument.

I'd pay good money to see Bachmann booted out of office, although i'm sure she'd get hired immediately by Fox, and we'd never see the end of those crazy-ass eyes of hers.

Liddy Dole's race is a bit of a surprise though. It'd be a shame for all that plastic surgery to go to waste though.....man, her face is tighter than a drum these days.


I


User currently offlineRFields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 14, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1910 times:



Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
The last time any party had the House, the Presidency, and a 60-vote majority in the Senate was in 1977-1979, and we all know what a wonderful success that was.

Yes, but a BIG part of the problems in that Presidency was the Executive Branch fighting the Legislative Branch. The President came to office with a mandate for change, and wasted two years while keeping the economy stalled when his own party would not support his view of change.

Though I will agree - that does sound a lot like this campaign.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
that was the root of the financial disaster we have recently been experiencing.

Then why are sub-prime mortgages and CRA type housing in lower behind payments rates and lower default rates and lower foreclosure rates than higher income mortgages?

Blaming the CRA exclusively, or even primarily, is pure fiction by people who have no background or understanding of economics, and a very limited understanding of reality.

The math is clear and easily available for anyone who bothers to check the BS radio talk show lies.


User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1894 times:



Quoting Superfly (Thread starter):
Georgia Senate race has tighten up as well. If there is any Republican I'd like to see go down is Saxby Chambliss (R-GA). I'll never forget his disgusting TV commercial in 2002 depicting Senator Max Cleland who was a triple amputee that proudly served our country in Vietnam photochopped with Osma Bin Laden in his lap. Never mind the fact that Saxby Chambliss was a draft dodger himself. That is one scumbag I'd love to see defeated.

Right now, most of the polls show this being a tight race, almost a dead heat in most of the polls (Chambliss in one poll has a 6 point lead). The Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, could definitely factor in this race as a spoiler (He ran for Senate in 2004 and polled 2.1% of the vote, which in a tight race could keep one of the other two candidates from securing 50%+1 of the vote), sending this race to a runoff that in the eyes of some pundits, would garner major national attention if it means the chance for the Democrats to make their 60 seat "super majority" number. We're already beginning to hit with ads from the Democratic and Republican Senatorial campaign groups.

The Congressional races here are pretty much over and done with, as the majority of the candidates either have no opposition in the general election (and faced token opposition in the primaries) or the opposing candidates are pretty much lambs to the slaughter.


User currently offlineN867DA From United States of America, joined May 2008, 1008 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1885 times:



Quoting Superfly (Thread starter):
Georgia Senate race has tighten up as well. If there is any Republican I'd like to see go down is Saxby Chambliss (R-GA). I'll never forget his disgusting TV commercial in 2002 depicting Senator Max Cleland who was a triple amputee that proudly served our country in Vietnam photochopped with Osma Bin Laden in his lap. Never mind the fact that Saxby Chambliss was a draft dodger himself. That is one scumbag I'd love to see defeated.

I don't think Chambliss will lose his seat. There were many angry responses after he voted for the bailout last month, but that has pretty much gone away. There is only one shot Jim Martin has, and Srbmod has nailed it:

Quoting Srbmod (Reply 15):
The Libertarian candidate, Allen Buckley, could definitely factor in this race as a spoiler

....but even the Libertarian candidate probably won't swing the tide in favor of the Democratic candidate. The Republican base is there, and while a few very dedicated people will vote for Buckley, many more still consider voting for the Libertarian a wasted vote. When polls start showing that the seat is actually up for grabs, a lot of Buckley voters may jump ship and vote for the candidate who in their mind is the second best option....Saxby Chambliss!

Srbmod mentioned this, but to add more: I'm pretty sure Georgia is the only state in the union that requries a majority (not plurality) to win the Senate election. Thus, even if Buckley makes a HUGE dent and denies Martin an easy win, it'll just go to run-off. And then the above scenario will play out. Voters will pick the lesser of the two (perceived) evils and Saxby Chambliss won't have to clean out his desk anytime soon.



A nation turns its lonely eyes to you
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 17, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1877 times:



Quoting Planespotting (Reply 12):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 11):
Ain't going to happen. Smile

Kirk only won by a few percentage points in '04

 Embarrassment
I got my candidates mixed up.
Dan Seals all the way!  bigthumbsup 

Quoting Johnboy (Reply 13):
there have always been whispers about his sexual orientation.



Quoting Johnboy (Reply 13):
"if you don't vote for me, all the pork i've given you for the last several years will go out the window"

 rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl   rotfl 

So I guess the voters of KY should continue to bend over for Mitch.  Silly

Quoting N867DA (Reply 16):
Thus, even if Buckley makes a HUGE dent and denies Martin an easy win, it'll just go to run-off. And then the above scenario will play out. Voters will pick the lesser of the two (perceived) evils and Saxby Chambliss won't have to clean out his desk anytime soon.

Still a long-shot but I hope Jim Martin can pull an upset. Saxby Chambliss is in my view the worst member of the US Senate.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineSrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1877 times:



Quoting N867DA (Reply 16):
The Republican base is there, and while a few very dedicated people will vote for Buckley, many more still consider voting for the Libertarian a wasted vote.

What's interesting is Buckley may siphon off some Republicans that are still upset with Chambliss for the Bailout ("wasted vote" or not). Buckley is running as a "fiscal conservative" and even has that on his campaign signs (I've seen a few of them in various parts of Atlanta this week). I think that Buckley will poll similar numbers as Bob Barr (The LP candidate for President) will, probably in the 2-4% range. Not all of those voters will be card carrying members of the Libertarian Party. There will definitely be some disgruntled voters from both the Democrats and Republicans that will vote for Buckley because he's the only one of the candidates who is actually talking about solutions to things like the National Debt, which is the main issue he is talking about in his speeches. That may also bring in those independent voters as well.

http://www.ajc.com/metro/content/met...20/buckley_libertarian_senate.html


User currently offlineJetstar From United States of America, joined May 2003, 1650 posts, RR: 10
Reply 19, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days ago) and read 1856 times:
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Just look back to 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected, he came in to a Democrat controlled congress with his liberal agenda and in 2 short years managed to lose congress to the Republicans.

I remember watching Clinton on TV taking biting his lower lip and taking full blame for the loss, he learned his lesson and become more conservative.

If Obama wins and it looks like the Democrats will control congress, if he tries to pull off the same liberal agenda that Clinton did the voters could take it out on the Congress in 2010. And if Obama goes really liberal, he could be a one term president like Jimmy Carter.


User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 20, posted (5 years 12 months 2 days ago) and read 1855 times:



Quoting Jetstar (Reply 19):
Just look back to 1992 when Bill Clinton was elected, he came in to a Democrat controlled congress with his liberal agenda and in 2 short years managed to lose congress to the Republicans.

In 2010, the Republicans will still be in a situation where they will be defending more seats than the Democrats. Plus Arlen Specter will not be running for re-election. Not sure if diaper wearing David Vitters (R-LA) will decide to run again either, he would be a n easy target if he tries to run again. Mel Martinez (R-FL) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) have very low approval ratings. They will all be up for re-election in 2010.
The Republican takeover in 1994 was partially due to many conservative southern Democrats decided to retire.
As I said above, it would be silly to compare Barack Obama to Jimmy Carter.
Carter was a total outsider in Washington, Obama is not. Obama is tapping in to the most skilled pool of successful business leaders for advice in cleaning up this financial mess.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineJohnboy From United States of America, joined Aug 1999, 2594 posts, RR: 7
Reply 21, posted (5 years 12 months 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1820 times:



Quoting Superfly (Reply 17):
So I guess the voters of KY should continue to bend over for Mitch.

He doesn't particularly strike me as a top.

 biggrin 


User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 22, posted (5 years 11 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1758 times:

Alaska's Senate race looks like a pick up for the Democrats now.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...20601103&sid=a1UUokoudfnc&refer=us

Oregon also looks like a pick up for the Democrats.

http://www.kptv.com/politics/17820817/detail.html#-



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineStasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3283 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1733 times:

Here's an interesting rundown of 12 U.S. Senate races courtesy of TalkingPointsMemo.com

Source: http://tpmtv.talkingpointsmemo.com/2...8/10/tpmtv_senate_race_preview.php



"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39905 posts, RR: 75
Reply 24, posted (5 years 11 months 3 weeks 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1728 times:

Al Franken is well on his way to becoming a Senator.  Cool


Bring back the Concorde
25 QXatFAT : Well I know that my Republican Congressman is the only one running right now in California in my district. I still didnt vote for him though. I did a
26 767Lover : It's definitely going to be close, and Martin has a very good chance at winning. He's generating a lot of support, both in terms of contributions and
27 DocLightning : I actually think he could be a good one. He's a humorist. In reality, he's not the clown he's made himself out to be.
28 Superfly : I hope Martin pulls an upset victory over Chambliss. I will never forget his commercials in 2002 against Max Cleland. That topped Jessie Helms commer
29 Slider : Thus confirming that Minnesota is the most F-ed up state in the country. Jesse Ventura. Al Franken. Incredible. Every incumbent should be booted out
30 Superfly : Sarah Palin? David Vitters? Lindsey Graham? Fran Murkowski?
31 Post contains links and images StasisLAX : Oh my goodness, the Senate Republicans are getting extremely desperate! "Furious about a new political ad in North Carolina that suggests she's "godle
32 Superfly : I hope this backfires against Dole. Why can't Elizabeth talk about how good her voting record is in supporting Bush and the results it has given her
33 DocLightning : I keep on pulling out this clause from Article VI. I swear, the religious Right treats the Constitution as if it is a barrier to be overcome. What is
34 Superfly : The problem is that many (especially in the South) don't see it that way. I always thought that Elizabeth Dole was classier than this considering she
35 DocLightning : Then I accuse them of being worse than un-American. I accuse them of being ANTI-American. The fact that religion is supposed to stay out of governmen
36 Post contains links 767Lover : Actually, Dole's plan may very well backfire with Republicans, according to a recent (August 2008) survey conducted by the Pew Forum on Religion and
37 Dreadnought : Well, Duhhh, have you seen the Rev. Wright and Father Fleger tapes? The old-style bible-thumpers on the right never went that far.
38 RFields5421 : People are finally getting the point that having churches and houses of worship in politics quite often means that views and positions which you disl
39 Post contains links Slider : Sarcasm aside, Supe, there are a few out there. Paul Ryan-WI, Eric Cantor-VA, Nick Ayers-GA (not to be confused with Obama buddy and terrorist Willia
40 Dvk : For all her education and alleged brilliance, Liddy Dole's greatest skill seems to have been attaining prestigious positions/ jobs and then underperf
41 Post contains links Superfly : I hope you saw the sarcasm in my post. All of those I listed are rather tainted and soon to be 'outted'. Well of course. Glad to see some conservativ
42 Post contains links AirCop : Look who the ANC paper is endorsing for senate: http://www.adn.com/opinion/view/story/573861.html One clue it isn't the incumbent...
43 Post contains links StasisLAX : I think Democrat Jim Martin could very well pull off a huge upset against incumbent Republican Senator Chambliss, or at a minimum, force a run-off el
44 Superfly : Georgia has 13 Congressional districts.
45 StasisLAX : Thanks for keeping me honest, 'Fly. I should have said all 7 "Republican" U.S. House Representatives from Georgia - there are a total of 13 U.S. Hous
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