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Europe's Natural Gas Supplies Could Be Shut Off  
User currently offlineStasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3283 posts, RR: 6
Posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4222 times:

According to the New York Times:

"Negotiations over gas prices between Russia and Ukraine unraveled Wednesday, and executives at Gazprom, the Russian natural gas monopoly, said they would halt gas supplies to Ukraine at 10 a.m. Thursday, January 1

If the gas is cut, customers in Western Europe would likely experience shortages, since the same pipelines in Ukraine that are used for internal distribution are also used for export. That is a problem that has bedeviled Europe’s energy supplies from Russia for years. About 80 percent of Russia’s gas exports to Europe go through Ukraine.

Underlying the gas dispute are long-running tensions between Russia and Ukraine, a former Soviet republic. In 2004, after the street protests known as the Orange Revolution installed a pro-Western government in Ukraine, talks over gas supply and its transit became strained."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/01/bu...s/worldbusiness/01gas.html?_r=1&hp

Inside Ukraine's government, the hostile geo-political negotiations with Russia is causing much bigger governance issues for the Ukraine's greatly divided government. Pro-Western Ukrainian politicians say Putin and Medvedev have used Ukraine’s economic troubles to create greater discontent among the ruling parties and the Ukrainian public by confronting the ruling party with hardball negotiations over natural gas prices.

Russia has also charged that the pro-NATO Ukrainian ruling party provided weapons to Georgia during the Russo-Georgian War, violating agreements with Russia on arms sales in the region, and equipping the Georgian military which in turn allow them to fight Russia during the war - however, the Russian government has not provided any proof. Ukraine has also supplied arms to other countries, including Russia, and states that they have followed U.N. rules on arms sales.


"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
104 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineOHLHD From Finland, joined Dec 2004, 3962 posts, RR: 25
Reply 1, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4209 times:

The gas is cut between Russia and the Ukraine but Europe will not be effected.  Smile

Ukraine has assured that they won´t touch the gas that is moving though their territory to Europe. Ukraine has reserves for up to 3 months.  Smile


User currently offlineStasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3283 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 4206 times:



Quoting OHLHD (Reply 1):
Ukraine has assured that they won´t touch the gas that is moving though their territory to Europe. Ukraine has reserves for up to 3 months

That was very smart of Ukraine to stock up on natural gas - but why didn't this fact get mentioned in the NYT article? Did Ukraine put aside natural gas reserves secretly, and only now announced that they have reserves? Interesting to say the least  scratchchin 



"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
User currently offlineOHLHD From Finland, joined Dec 2004, 3962 posts, RR: 25
Reply 3, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 4202 times:



Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 2):
That was very smart of Ukraine to stock up on natural gas - but why didn't this fact get mentioned in the NYT article? Did Ukraine put aside natural gas reserves secretly, and only now announced that they have reserves? Interesting to say the least

I have that from here. German only:

http://www.kurier.at/geldundwirtschaft/283719.php

The article says that they just filled them up during the last months.  Smile


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 4, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4073 times:



Quoting StasisLAX (Thread starter):
in Western Europe would likely experience

.-
in Western Europe, only parts of Germany get their natural gas supplies from Russia, while most of Western Europe depends on other supply-routes, mainly Algeria but also others including Iran. Russian supplies however ARE of vital importance in Eastern Europe, countries who possibly will start to shift their imports in view of the instability in Russia and Ukraine.
-

Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 2):
why didn't this fact get mentioned in the NYT article? Did Ukraine put aside natural gas reserves secretly

-
The article in the NYT is wrong in various points, as done by somebody with a lack of real knowledge.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 4064 times:



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 4):
but also others including Iran

Iran, remind me how?????


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 6, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4052 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 5):
but also others including Iran

Iran, remind me how?????

a lot of the natural gas transport is done by LNG-ships, which means LIQUEFIED natural gas. The gas on arrival at a LNG-terminal, be it at the seaport or at an inland LNG-terminal is then DEliquefied and transported to its use.
-
in case of Switzerland, most of the gas used in Switzerland is liquefied on the Algerian coast and then seafreighted to Marseille-Ouest and from there by pipeline to two LNG terminals in Switzerland, where the stuff is DEliquified for distribution. In 2008, the Swiss Foreign Minister Micheline Calmy-Rey went to Tehran to sign a new treaty by which Iran will supply Switzerland with LNG in considerable quantities, also using those Algerian-French-Swiss pipelines.


User currently offlinePar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7186 posts, RR: 8
Reply 7, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 4 days ago) and read 4050 times:

So to safeguard Western Europe gas supplies from Russia via Ukraine there needs to be a govt. in place in both countries who agree and support each other, sounds a lot like how free trade works the world over, now how is that accomplished?

User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 8, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4037 times:



Quoting Par13del (Reply 7):
So to safeguard Western Europe gas supplies from Russia

-
Again, Western Europe does not depend on Russian gas supplies. It is EASTERN Europe which at least at present does depend on Russian gas supplies. But even this may be subject to change.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4038 times:



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 6):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 5):
but also others including Iran

Iran, remind me how?????

a lot of the natural gas transport is done by LNG-ships, which means LIQUEFIED natural gas. The gas on arrival at a LNG-terminal, be it at the seaport or at an inland LNG-terminal is then DEliquefied and transported to its use.

Yes, indeed, we tend to know a bit about LNG down here for one reason and another. So do the Iranians. And their largest field, S Pars is producing domestic gas. Nuclear generated electricity would be used to save some of this gas for export.

Unfortunately for the Iranians, what they also know is the difficulty of getting an LNG project up and running.
See
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Asalouyeh
and
http://www.economist.com/agenda/displaystory.cfm?story_id=11360483
The indications that Shell and, most likely, Total will not meet Iran's mid-June deadline for them to commit themselves to going ahead with their long-standing liquefied natural gas (LNG) projects reflect both the difficulties of doing business in sanctions-hit Iran and the broader problem of escalating global costs of energy schemes of this sort. Major oil and gas projects are indeed stalled in Iran, but progress is also painfully slow elsewhere; according to Petroleum Economist, an industry magazine, only four LNG projects have attained "final investment decisions" over the past 18 months (in Peru, Australia, Algeria and Angola), and all of these have also faced long delays.
Shell on the bench

In response to reports that it had pulled out of its LNG project, which entailed integrating the development of Phase 13 of Iran's South Pars gasfield with a liquefaction plant and marketing strategy, Shell issued a statement suggesting a more nuanced picture. Shell said that it had "agreed the principle of substitution of alternative later phases for the Persian LNG project so that the National Iranian Oil Company (NIOC) can proceed with the immediate development of Phase 13". This statement suggests that the two sides have agreed that the development of Phase 13 should not be delayed any longer owing to the difficulty of agreeing final commercial terms for building the LNG plant for which the gas from this phase has been designated. At the same time, Iran seems to be concerned to keep open the option of enlisting Shell's technical and marketing know-how and financial input for an LNG project linked to a future phase of South Pars.


Developing the S Pars gas in Iran as LNG would be a doddle. But the problems are that Qatar Gas (currently producing 10 mtpa) has some inside running and there are competition problems across the Gulf, but the real problem for developments in Iran is that the US keeps putting pressure on companies trying either to develop LNG or pipelines across Pakistan. The usual threat has been in relation to any operations a company may have in the US. Qatargas is proposing to go to 40 mptpa but Iranian gas would be a good back up. Perhaps Europe will mention this to the US??

For the record:

Gas reserves at end 2007:
Russia 44.65 trillion cubic metres (tcm)
Algeria 4.5 tcm
Qatar 25.6 tcm
Iran 27.8 tcm

For comparison, US 5.98 tcm and remember The Netherlands was once the world's major exporter of gas, and now has a reserve of 1.25 tcm (still ahead of the UK at 0.41 tcm).

Russia, Iran and Qatar are the only jurisdictions with more than 10 tcm published reserves of natural gas. It is unwise to underestimate the power of the Russian position.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 10, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4030 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
It is unwise to underestimate the power of the Russian position.

-
There are several points to be taken into account :
-
A) Russia WANTS to export, as Russia depends on the money they can get
B) Eastern Europe DOES depend on Russia to some extent, but Russia needs the money
C) the major point is that Ukraine pays rates which are far below what Russia can get on the world market
-
In case of Switzerland, and I think this also applies to Belgium and France, "Russian gas supplies" are perceived as GERMAN supplies, and to depend on GERMAN supplies is not exactly popular over here. That a Swiss foreign minister who originates from Geneva, does her uttermost to keep Switzerland out of the Schröder arrangements is not so much of a coincidence.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4025 times:



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 10):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
It is unwise to underestimate the power of the Russian position.

-
There are several points to be taken into account :
-
A) Russia WANTS to export, as Russia depends on the money they can get

Well with world consumption close to 3tcm in 2007 (BP data), only Russia, Iran and Qatar influence gas availability. Russian and US production are very similar, but look at the difference in reserves. Money is a short term issue, reserves give the long term answers.


User currently offlineElite From Hong Kong, joined Jun 2006, 2798 posts, RR: 10
Reply 12, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 4024 times:



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 10):

 checkmark 

As much as Russia may want to be able to threaten Europe and the rest of the Western world by shutting off the natural gas supply, they know that the entire Russian economy depends on oil exports.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 8):
Again, Western Europe does not depend on Russian gas supplies. It is EASTERN Europe which at least at present does depend on Russian gas supplies. But even this may be subject to change.

Don't some part of Western Europe depend on Russia for energy? At least partially?


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 13, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 3997 times:
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Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 4):
in Western Europe, only parts of Germany get their natural gas supplies from Russia



Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 8):
Again, Western Europe does not depend on Russian gas supplies

This is not necessarily correct. Whilst most countries in western Europe have a more diverse range of gas supplies, they do nevertheless still buy Russian gas. It is right to say that Eastern Europe is far more dependant though.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3959 times:



Quoting RussianJet (Reply 13):
Whilst most countries in western Europe have a more diverse range of gas supplies, they do nevertheless still buy Russian gas

-
Most West European countries do NOT. But in fact almost all WILL do so if Russia shows to be a reliable and competitive supplier. But playing dirty tricks on its southern neighbour is bad marketing.


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 15, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3945 times:
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Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 14):
Most West European countries do NOT

http://www.reuters.com/article/rbssE...RSS&feedName=rbssEnergyNews&rpc=22
Well, this Reuters article for one suggests otherwise.

2007 figures:
Germany bought 42% of its annual consumption from Russia.
Italy bought 28% of its annual consumption from Russia.
France bought 24% of it's annual consumption from Russia.
The UK bought 16% of its annual consumption from Russia.

Austria also bought 60%, and Finland almost all of its Gas from Russia.

Now, these figures have probably altered in 2008 due to the politics, and as I said, Western Europe has a more diverse range of supplies on the whole compared to Eastern Europe, and we could probably sit here and argue about the definition of 'most' or whatever, but it is clear that there is a very significant amount of Russian gas being bought by countries in Western Europe.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 16, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3934 times:



Quoting RussianJet (Reply 15):
there is a very significant amount of Russian gas being bought by countries in Western Europe.

-
I don't know about the UK, but I think it got heavily reduced in case of France and Italy, beside the point that the share in question hardly means a dependance. HOWEVER, far more important is that Russia HAS the chance to get a 50%-PLUS share all over Europe if it proves to be a dependable reliable competitive supplier ! A basic problem in fact apparently is that some folks in charge in Moscow simply are still thinking USSR-wise !!


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 17, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3929 times:
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Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 16):
I don't know about the UK, but I think it got heavily reduced in case of France and Italy, beside the point that the share in question hardly means a dependance. HOWEVER, far more important is that Russia HAS the chance to get a 50%-PLUS share all over Europe if it proves to be a dependable reliable competitive supplier ! A basic problem in fact apparently is that some folks in charge in Moscow simply are still thinking USSR-wise !!

It has certainly reduced in the UK, I read from one source possibly as much as to only 2% of total consumption. You are right about the dependance thing, but I just wanted to point out that significant amounts were and still are being bought in Western Europe, and in the kind of volumes that, whilst not necessarily amounting to dependance in some cases, will undoubtedly cause inconvenience if supplies are disrupted. Also, that list is not exhaustive, and only deals with the larger customers. I would be surprised if other countries (such as Spain and Portugal) do not get at least some of their gas from the Russian Federation.

As for the current situation, I feel reasonably sure that we won't see any significant disruption in supply (just my own feeling, please don't anyone ask me for evidence!), but even already today I have read reports in the Russian press accusing the Ukraine of 'unashamedly stealing' supplies they are not entitled to. Given that the Ukraine publically stated they would not do this, and appear to have fairly large reserves for such an eventuality as the current situation, I would be surprised if this was the case, and it is a predictable PR move that the Russian government would make such accusations.

As usual, we can only guess what the truth really is!



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3905 times:

After the threats of cutting off Eastern Europe (and former eastern Germany) by Russia last year, the German government suggested to build up a strategic reserve for natural gas for 3-6 months similar to the one we have for crude oil since the 1970s oil crisis.
The German gas companies though are strictly opposed to such an idea, claiming that it would increase gas prices due to storage costs.
IMO, though I think their reasoning is rather that the German government has accused them of using their regional monopoly status for price gouging and they fear that the government could use such a reserve to counteract unjustified price hikes.
Technically the storage facilities for such a reserve could be built within one year:
Under much of northern Germany's plainare huge salt domes. It is easily possible to drill a hole into several of these and then use hot water to wash out a huge cavity 100 meters high, 50 meters diameter), which then can be used to store natural gas under high pressure.
This has previously been done in the 1980s under West Berlin, when the West Berlin gas works decided to abandon coal gas to move to natural gas imported from Russia. The West Berlin commanders of the Western Allied Forces feared that this could give the Soviet Union leverage to blackmail West Berlin, as during the blockade of 1948-49 and demanded that the gas workswould set up a reserve with enough gas to supply the cityfor one year.
The storage site was built about 1000 meters beneath the Grunewald forest and has been used ever since.

Jan


User currently offlineKevin From Canada, joined Dec 2000, 1144 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 3827 times:

Today Ukraine admitted and several Eurpoean countries confirmed that Ukraine is stealing gas from the Russia - Europe transit line.

User currently offlineStasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3283 posts, RR: 6
Reply 20, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3814 times:

Looks like they're adding another chapter to the pissing war between the Gazprom oligarchs and the Ukrainian government....

"Gazprom, the Russian gas monopoly, accused Ukraine on Friday of diverting fuel intended for Europe and using it within Ukraine. Russia had cut off natural gas supplies to Ukraine the day before over a pricing dispute. Ukrainian officials say they are withdrawing only enough gas to operate pumping stations serving the pipelines, while drawing on reserves for internal use. European nations said they had not seen any shortfalls so far. Talks between Russia and Ukraine were stalemated as Ukraine has asked for European Union mediation, an option Moscow rejected."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/wo...AINEACCUS_BRF.html?_r=1&ref=europe

And Comrade Putin is back to his usual saber-rattling again:

"Mr. Putin said any interference with Russia’s gas exports to Europe would carry “serious consequences for the transit country itself.” He did not elaborate, but Ukrainian officials did not need to be reminded that Russia issued a series of threats and provocations against Georgia, leading in part to the war last summer."

Source: http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/02/world/europe/02gazprom.html?fta=y

[Edited 2009-01-02 22:41:48]


"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 21, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3786 times:



Quoting RussianJet (Reply 15):
The UK bought 16% of its annual consumption from Russia.

We had a thread on the UK relying on Russian gas ??more than a year ago. I remembering bemoaning the way that the UK had squandered the N Sea gas.

But even if the UK was not relying on Russian gas, any shortfall in a country to the E (ie on what really is the supply side - pun intended) will flow through to higher prices.

We probably ought to ask Mortyman for a running account of Norwegian gas prices to work out how bad a crisis it will be!!!


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 22, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3783 times:
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Quoting StasisLAX (Reply 20):
And Comrade Putin is back to his usual saber-rattling again:

To be fair, why should he not warn the Ukraine not to steal gas when they have failed to agree terms for its supply?



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineMillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1243 posts, RR: 6
Reply 23, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3781 times:

Most of the former Soviet republics have or have had special deals for gas and its about these discounted rates and the debt from being late with payments that Russia and its neighbours always seems to be arguing.
If its because of gazprom wants marketrates for its gas or if its because Russia wants to give support to the more Moscow friendly of Ukrainians politicians I don't know. I am sure wiser people than me can comment on that but what should be clear is that Russia and Europe has not had any of these problems so far.

Europe buys gas from Russia whenever they offer it at rates that are cheaper than generating energy from other sources. Europe can produce energy from many sources but gas is one source widely used because its cheap. The supply of gas from Russia will fluctuate depending upon price and depending upon agreements. Thats why Italy who has pretty close cooperation with but Russia in the energy sector will be more dependent upon Russian gas than for example France who has nuclear and close cooperation with Algeria.

This saying that Europe's gas supply is threatened is a simplified version of what goes on. Western Europe can choose gas from other sources or even use other forms of energy, they might have to pay more but western Europe will not run out of gas.
Eastern Europe is different, they used to depend heavily on Russia for energy and they don't have access to a diversified supply. With their old nuclear facilities shutting down or being in the process of being shut down they are much more dependent upon gas than Western Europe.
However some of these countries are diversifying its energy supplies. New electrical cables are being laid at a faster and faster pace and the Swedish/Swiss conglomerate ABB is working overtime to supply most of the products.
This has for instance given Estonia and Latvia the option of purchasing electricity from Scandinavia if their own supplies doesn't meet demand. Now gas is a cheap alternative and purchasing from other countries might make energy more expensive, a lot more expensive but the sole dependency upon Russia isnt there anymore.
Now this is something the EU is working on, in the autumn of 2009 a new EU energy policy will see the day and its major objective is to create a Pan European distribution system of energy. Quite a few major companies and countries are against it but its still expected to go through. This will require a lot of new infrastructure to be built in Europe and primarily in Eastern Europe where money is scarce for projects like this so financing will be a hard nut to crack for the commission but one way or the other I am sure there will be a solution.

The world of gas is very interesting at the moment. Pipelines are being laid and planned. We all know about some of them, Nordstream for example between Russia and Germany and the pipelines planned from Southern Russia on to the Balkans and up to Austria.
But Libya, Algeria and Egypt are other countries whose gas will be pipelined to Europe and there are talks about bringing in SubSaharan gas through pipelines.
Europe wants to diversify its supply as much as possible. The gasproducing countries are not stupid, they are under Russia's and Irans leadership about to start a gas version of oils Opec that will set prices and deal with production levels and this is politics on the highest levels...

Interesting times for some of us indeed.
The article in New York Times seems to be written by a journalist who uses wikipedia for sources or something similar. Quite a disgrace for the journalistic profession indeed.



No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 24, posted (5 years 8 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3758 times:



Quoting RussianJet (Reply 17):
I would be surprised if other countries (such as Spain and Portugal) do not get at least some of their gas from the Russian Federation.

-
Not in a considerable way actually as exactly Portugal and Spain profit from their closeness to Algeria, BUT in view of the energy-sharing-system in force in continental Western Europe, it is obvious that they also might at times use Russian energy just as countries like Czechia and Slovakia and even Poland may use Algerian energy. But once again, Russia does not export gas for charity purposes but to get money. And it so is in the interest of Russia to keep the line UP and even to improve. Russia has superior reserves and could use this factor to the economic advantage of Russia. And I cannot help but to regard power-plays like the one at present played against Ukraine as a bid childish, and absolutely contra-productive.


25 RussianJet : Perhaps so, but there is certainly fault on both sides here. I don't think it's a particularly great marketing message to be giving certain countries
26 ME AVN FAN : - This of course is fact and is visible to any attentive person. BUT what comes over in the news now is the picture of the big ugly Russian bear mole
27 RussianJet : Precisely. I would never claim that Russia is blameless or without fault, but the one-sidedness in how these things get reported can be breathtaking
28 Post contains links StasisLAX : Hungry, Poland, Romania, and Bulgaria are reporting markedly decreased supplies of Russian natural gas that transit through Ukraine, according to toda
29 Baroque : If you know there is either going to be a demand peak or a supply shortage, you pump up the lines in advance, but that only takes you so far. With lo
30 RussianJet : Hmm, nice little biased assessment of the situation there from the NY Times. Yes, how dare those nasty folks refuse to sell gas to other countries at
31 ME AVN FAN : - "nasty" ? Yes, nasty in so far as the displayed lack of understanding for marketing and public relations on the side of the Russian government IS n
32 RussianJet : It is correct to say there is much that can be rightly criticised about the handling and presentation of things by the Russians, but in terms of the
33 ME AVN FAN : - Sure, but as the NYT quite clearly believed /believes that most of Western Europe took/takes most of its Natural Gas from Russia, what do you expec
34 OA260 : Thats sums it up 100% Im surprised we have not seen the Ukraninans sitting in a nice leather chair with the EU flag behind them lol... Maybe its time
35 RussianJet : Don't get me wrong, I expect nothing better than this from the NY Times on the matter. Of course relatively few, but it should be an easy piece of jo
36 ME AVN FAN : - It SHOULD be indeed, and is in a way. But many journalists apparently think it is too time consuming. I however can say that most papers I know tak
37 Post contains links Lumberton : Well, here's some more. Perhaps the "principals" will prevail here? Very inconvenient news for some. http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090106/eu_ukraine_russia
38 MD11Engineer : It looks like a few pipelines might be build in Europe in near future, so that gas can be moved from any port or pipehead in Europe to any place. This
39 RussianJet : Of course such consequences are unacceptable. This item correctly criticises both parties for the situation we are now seeing. Regardless of the righ
40 Baroque : Some of the principals appear to think that sound business principles are at stake. But outside of the negotiations, who is to know?
41 MD11Engineer : AFAIK, Germany receives a lot of Russian gas through a pipeline going through Belorus and Poland, which has not been cut off. Jan
42 TripleDelta : Some SE Europe countries are also facing shortages. Early this morning, supplies to Bulgaria, Romania, Turkey, Macedonia, Greece and Croatia had been
43 Danny : The whole situation shows that EU must look for alternative sources of energy than Russia. Today they cut off gas supply to blackmail Ukraine, tomorro
44 MD11Engineer : One thing I noticed is that the gas always gets cut off in the middle of winter, when it is really needed. An EU strategic reserve good for 3-6 months
45 Post contains links Baroque : It is a bit tricky to work out what the price is because the distance to the Ukraine from the gasfields is less and the Ukraine charges transit fees
46 ME AVN FAN : - I see two points : A) It was a mistake that Germany so heavily went into this gas business with Russia B) That countries like Poland and Hungary jo
47 RussianJet : There has obviously been tension and games for a long time - it has certainly not been one-sided. You don't. The Ukraine has been receiving gas from
48 MD11Engineer : Is this the price the end customer pays or the price at which the German gas companies buy the gas from the Russians? If it is the first case (which
49 ME AVN FAN : - The problem is the methods. Russia should have sent an official termination notice one year before a set deadline, officially advising the Ukraine
50 Baroque : It is not clear from the exact wording but such discussions are almost always (always really, but I am being cautious) about wholesale rates to the c
51 RussianJet : You make many good points here, and I am at pains to point out that I in no way wish to respresent Russia as being without fault. As far as some of w
52 LTU932 : Well, with former Chancellor Gerhard Schröder, who's a known friend of Putin, Gazprom has a strong lobbyist for its cause in Germany.
53 Post contains links AverageUser : I did not see anyone linking to a proper map on the current and the projected East European pipelines, so here you are: http://www.npr.org/news/graph
54 Baroque : Thanks for the map. I looked high and low for a good map of the line through Georgia when that kerfuffle was on. If I were Ukraine, I would be a grea
55 Post contains links StasisLAX : The natural gas shortage is rapidly worsening in much of Europe according to the BBC News: "Seven European and Balkan countries have reported a comple
56 Baroque : And to an extent he could be correct. Ukraine does not have a simple or entirely innocent role in this spat.
57 TripleDelta : Local media reports that Bosnia might be heading for what many call "a humanitarian catastrophe". All gas reserves were used up yesterday afternoon,
58 Post contains links Lumberton : Associated Press is saying that the Russians have cut off all shipments of gas to Europe via the Ukraine. http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090107/ap_on_bi
59 Post contains links AverageUser : The key to the auxiliary solid fuel tank is no longer under the manager's welcome mat or what's the deal? I read that this was in fact the case, it w
60 TripleDelta : No idea... I was surprised by the fact that they have almost no large reserves of either gas or heating oil (if the reports are true it must be said,
61 ME AVN FAN : - In pre-1990 times, your list would have been much shorter with Greece, Bulgaria, Yugoslavia, Hungary -- if you add to this that Yugoslavia whenever
62 Slider : I just want to thank everyone for the great posts in this thread---very educational for me as this is something I’m largely ignorant about, so this
63 Post contains links StasisLAX : An article in today's Los Angeles Times reflects that the United States in firmly on the side of Ukraine in the Gazprom gas embargo, and made highly c
64 RussianJet : Maybe someone should point out to him that constantly displaying massive bias undermines the international standing of the US. The EU is right to cri
65 AverageUser : At least my understanding of journalism is that you'll need to do some research on your own instead of just copy-pasting what Reuters etc feed you. T
66 Baroque : One thing that might help would be if the west kept its paws of Ukrainian politics, especially the bits where it can be see to be fomenting splits bet
67 ME AVN FAN : - yes AND no. Check not only the newspapers at hand carefully, but the contributions of each single journalist involved. You may swiftly find out the
68 MillwallSean : Its also a game of chickens in many ways. Eastern European countries where gas is transitting doesnt always want a diversified market. It reduces thei
69 Baroque : It does appear that the Russians were able to work out that gas put into the E side of Ukraine and agreed to be to supply Europe W of Ukraine was not
70 WunalaYann : My question is probably not entirely related to the issue at hand but I seem to recall that Eastern Ukraine is broadly "pro-Moscow", while Western Uk
71 Baroque : That was also my understanding. It would depend upon how thoroughly each of these factions "owns" the bureaucracy, but you can imagine a set up for i
72 Post contains links Lumberton : In the meantime.... http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/7819429.stm
73 ME AVN FAN : - People in what is today "Eastern Ukraine" are basically Russian-speaking ethnic Russians who only by post 1917 border-drawing got into the Ukraine.
74 OA260 : Yep they should have been building alot more wind farms and using solar power panels on rooftops etc... In alot of countries you can dig down deep an
75 MillwallSean : Hmm, yet again, there are other options for energy. Its all about choice. You can pay more for energy or pay higher taxes and you will have other for
76 Baroque : Nicely and wittily put Millwall. There were other options, but even without discounts the Russian gas is the cheapest option - as well as offering th
77 WunalaYann : If you drill it following the Polar route, by all means yes!
78 Dougloid : I hate to remind everyone of this bu I once had a girl, or should I say, she once had me She showed me her ass Isn't it good Norwegian gas?
79 Post contains links Lumberton : This doesn't look good at all. This morning, there were indications that with the dispatch of the EU monitors, the gas would start flowing again. Howe
80 Baroque : It seems the current holdup is the Ukrainians made a hand written alteration after the official signing. Seems a bit like Presidential signing habits
81 RussianJet : Certainly not surprising, or unjustified. Still, they will undoubtedly still get most of the blame.
82 Post contains links AverageUser : Gas flow to resume on Tuesday morning Russia’s Gazprom is due to resume gas deliveries to Europe via Ukraine on Tuesday at 8.00am GMT, when the newl
83 Post contains links StasisLAX : Here's the alteration according to the New York Times: "Over the weekend, the Czech Republic’s prime minister, Mirek Topolanek, secured Mr. Putin
84 RussianJet : Funny thing that, because Russia has similarly agreed to having supplies monitered. Hmmm. An absurdly provocative thing to do which, being an experie
85 Baroque : Sorry to disagree. That link takes me to "here is a precis of what the NYT says the statement was". This is a far far thing from knowing what she act
86 Post contains links and images AverageUser : Here's btw a new and improved map of the pipelines that include the lesser branches and projects as well. From the russiatoday.com site.
87 Post contains links Baroque : Nice map. Many thanks AU. A more exact location is http://www.russiatoday.com/media/file/2/495c8e0ada1fb.jpg Wonder why they pushed the main line fro
88 Post contains links Lumberton : So this still hasn't been worked out? According to this BBC article, the EU is "disappointed" by the gas flow to date. http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/euro
89 Post contains links Lumberton : Now a Russian official is blaming the U.S. ! EU diplomats are "baffled".... http://www.ft.com/cms/s/0/ebb4148e-e1a6-11dd-afa0-0000779fd2ac.html
90 Post contains links StasisLAX : According to today's New York Times, there seems to be political implications for the Ukrainian government and a severe test of national loyalty amon
91 AverageUser : Perhaps their perceived (export) market was actually already further south in the 1970-80s? In the EU commercial sector, Mr Barroso has now finally f
92 Baroque : Or the main original purpose of the line was to supply the Ukraine itself and extension W was a tack on. Which would help explain why the present arr
93 Post contains links StasisLAX : And the geo-political games continue today according to the New York Times: "The collapse Tuesday of a monitoring agreement between the European Union
94 AverageUser : " target=_blank>http://www.nytimes.com/2009/01/03/wo...urope I wonder what you would make of an occational redirecting of your browser out of the NYT
95 Post contains links StasisLAX : I'm sure I'll find unbiased news at www.russiatoday.com
96 Post contains links AverageUser : Speking of www.russiatoday.com , a fresh interview of Mr Putin himself on the crisis by the German ARD news channel is now on the site. If you want to
97 Post contains links Lumberton : It seems that the "Americans-are-to-blame" campaign didn't get much traction. Now the Russians are taking a new tact. Putin is saying that the EU is "
98 MD11Engineer : I've heard on the Russian government shortwave programme that the Ukrainiansrefused the Russian inspectors access to the control room of their pipeli
99 Post contains links Lumberton : Still no deal. This has been going on now for what...2 weeks? http://biz.yahoo.com/ap/090117/eu_ukraine_russia_gas.html
100 Post contains links RussianJet : Ok, Putin and Tymoshenko have apparently reached a deal at long last, and contracts have been signed. Let's just hope the gas flows. http://news.bbc.c
101 StasisLAX : Perhap natural gas revenues coming into Gazprom's till will help this ideological battle (Ukrainian governments' alignment with NATO) to come to the
102 RussianJet : I think you will find that the Ukraine was a deeply divided and troubled country long before the gas dispute, and that this whole gas situation is th
103 Post contains links Lumberton : Another report of the apparent "deal". http://news.yahoo.com/s/ap/20090118/ap_on_bi_ge/eu_ukraine_russia_gas
104 ME AVN FAN : - Maybe, but let's not forget that in 1990/91 Ukraine defacto became independent of Russia (the legal successor of the USSR) and not the other way ro
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