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Guantánamo Bay Back To Cuba?  
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3394 times:

Lets say that President Obama gives back Guantánamo bay to Cuba and Cuba-US opens
diplomatic relations. Would it be good for the US economy, US companies able to do direct
trade and US airlines flying direct to Cuba and Cuban airlines to the US?
Would it be political suicide for President Obama to do so?

63 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinePSA53 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 3059 posts, RR: 4
Reply 1, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3379 times:



Quoting Alessandro (Thread starter):

Lets say that President Obama gives back Guantánamo bay to Cuba and Cuba-US opens
diplomatic relations. Would it be good for the US economy, US companies able to do direct
trade and US airlines flying direct to Cuba and Cuban airlines to the US?

Yes,to all the above.But only if civil liberties are return to the Cuban people.Use Gitmo as a bargaining chip.But then would the Cubans adhere to those terms after an agreement is reached?Most likely not.

Quoting Alessandro (Thread starter):
Would it be political suicide for President Obama to do so?

No.Refer to the first reply.



Tuesday's Off! Do not disturb.
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3352 times:

Well, the reasons would be primarly economical, a sort of bailout for the US airlines, with a duopoly on the routes and less cost for the US military.
Add trade for US companies to Cuba, Russia closed down it´s navalbases in Cuba and Vietnam due to financial reasons 7 years ago http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/europe/1964253.stm


User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3351 times:
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Quoting PSA53 (Reply 1):
Yes,to all the above.But only if civil liberties are return to the Cuban people.Use Gitmo as a bargaining chip.

Using Gitmo as a bargaining chip is an example of the same tired policy the US has tried for 50 years to get Cuba to do as it's told. Bottom line is -- never mind the 99-year lease and its rather interesting origins -- the US is occupying a piece of Cuban territory and Cuba has a right to expect the US to leave. No conditions, just go.

If Obama had the guts to do that, unilaterally, you might be surprised how quickly the thaw took hold and flourished -- especially if he lifted that ridiculous embargo at the same time. But given the sordid history of this, the US has to move first. With Castro effectively our of the loop, there will never be a better time.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3347 times:

I don´t think there´s a timelimit on the Guantánamo Bay lease, basically both parties have to sign a deal to determine the lease.

User currently offlineDfwRevolution From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 968 posts, RR: 51
Reply 5, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3339 times:



Quoting Alessandro (Thread starter):
Would it be political suicide for President Obama to do so?



Quoting PSA53 (Reply 1):
No.Refer to the first reply.

I may be way off in my perception of Cuban-Americans, but making a huge unilateral concession to Cuba probably wouldn't win any friends in the State of Florida.

Quoting Alessandro (Reply 2):
Well, the reasons would be primarly economical, a sort of bailout for the US airlines, with a duopoly on the routes and less cost for the US military.

The impact on the U.S. economy would be insignificant IMO. It would just be a sign of weakness in U.S. foreign policy. Not worth it right now.

Quoting Arrow (Reply 3):
Bottom line is -- never mind the 99-year lease and its rather interesting origins -- the US is occupying a piece of Cuban territory and Cuba has a right to expect the US to leave. No conditions, just go.

What's in it for us to leave? You're opinion?


User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3321 times:
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Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
What's in it for us to leave? You're opinion?

First step towards normalizing relations with Cuba -- both countries would benefit from that. It will get democracy restored (oops, sorry -- they never had that did they) far more quickly than the current "drive-them-into-the-ground" policy, which you must admit has been a dismal failure.


Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5)
It would just be a sign of weakness in U.S. foreign policy. Not worth it right now.


On the contrary. It would be an example of a foreign policy maturation that's long over due. No one in the world is going to think of the US as "weak" because it decides to bury the hatchet with Cuba. In fact, it would go a long way towards restoring the US lost standing as a world leader, and it would do so with little real costs. Guantanamo in particular serves no real purpose, other than a perpetual irritant.

[Edited 2009-01-22 15:55:41]


Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineKRIC777 From United States of America, joined Jun 2002, 279 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3310 times:
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Lifting the embargo would be great for the Cuban economy, of course, simply by the tourist dollars that would flow into the country. It wouldn't be bad for the US economy, but I don't see it as a particular benefit, either (other than for people like me, who would like to go to Cuba without breaking the law.) Cuba just wouldn't offer the volume of business opportunities, YET, except maybe for the tourism industry. But with time, that could change. But we'll never know unless the embargo is lifted.

I won't claim to be an expert on Cuba, but in terms of returning Guantanamo Bay, I don't see much benefit to Cuba other than national pride. It's not like it sits on an oil field or something...isn't it just a naval base?

As for the political consequences for Obama...without researching the matter, I can only guess that most of the vehement anti-communists in the USA (Cubans and otherwise) probably weren't voting for him, anyway. A liberal democrat like Mr Obama wouldn't have nearly as much to lose as a a conservative would by lifting the Cuban embargo.


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12468 posts, RR: 46
Reply 8, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3281 times:
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Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
but making a huge unilateral concession to Cuba probably wouldn't win any friends in the State of Florida.

Presumably, Floridians of Cuban origin must have considered this would be a distinct possibility if Obama became president. I don't recall it being an election issue, but I could easily have missed it. Having won the election, why would Obama be worried about those same Floridians not liking his decision (if he makes it)?

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
It would just be a sign of weakness in U.S. foreign policy.

How so? The measures taken by Obama in his first couple of days in office will already be raising the USA's "stock" around the World. The ending of the embargo against Cuba and the return of Guantanamo Bay would clearly signal a new beginning in US foreign policy, and one which will significantly help to restore its battered image overseas. I'm frankly shocked at the level of interest being taken here in US politics and can only describe the excitement here as "Kennedy like". There seems to be a real buzz around Europe that America might be returning to the version most of us prefer.

As far as I can tell, all 50 years of embargo has achieved is to help keep the average Cuban dirt poor.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineTugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5503 posts, RR: 8
Reply 9, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3274 times:

Quoting KRIC777 (Reply 7):
It's not like it sits on an oil field or something.

Well they sort of do..... Cuba is one of the best places to grow sugar cane! And what does sugar cane produce? Ethanol!

If we do allow ethanol to be imported (and there really is no reason to not allow it other than ADM's lobbying efforts), Cuba will become a big,big producer of it (along with Brazil).

Also, I have never known that Guantanamo is that much of an issue. I know that a Communist country objects to a Capitalist democracy having a base on their land but I always thought the lease issue aspect of it was well established and legally binding and it wasn't much of a problem.

Tugg

[Edited 2009-01-22 16:52:04]


I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
User currently offlinePPVRA From Brazil, joined Nov 2004, 8957 posts, RR: 40
Reply 10, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3272 times:



Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
It would just be a sign of weakness in U.S. foreign policy.

Is that what you call opening up to Vietnam? A "weakness"?

Quoting DfwRevolution (Reply 5):
What's in it for us to leave? You're opinion?

Save money. Better yet, don't spend money you don't have.



"If goods do not cross borders, soldiers will" - Frederic Bastiat
User currently offlineKiwiinOz From New Zealand, joined Oct 2005, 2165 posts, RR: 5
Reply 11, posted (5 years 7 months 3 days ago) and read 3261 times:

Cigars. It's all about the cigars.

User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 12, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3245 times:

The US Military base at Guantanamo Bay is part of the deal done when we gave up Cuba as a territory of the USA in the mid-1920's (the USA 'won' Cuba in the Spanish American war of 1898-99 from Spain, along with Puerto Rico and the Phillipines). A long term lease was singed with the new and independent government of Cuba which is still in effect. The Government of Cuba still owns the land. Since the Fidel Castro led Revolution and rule (about 1959 and still in effect), the Cuban government has not accepted any payments on the lease, we haven't made any and we have stayed.

I suspect in a few years, once Fidel and Raul are dead and Cuba starts to move toward modern standards of human and civil rights, Cuba will seek to renegotiate the payments on the lease, probably to many millions a year and past payments. They know we have no other place to have a base in the Carribbean, since the closedown of the base in Puerto Rico due to enviromental and safety issues and not enough room in the USVI and no other countries-islands that would want us. I also suspect they will require use of the base in line with the Geneva Conventions and other international agreement both are parts of, so no more 'special' prisons there.


User currently offlineDougloid From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 23 hours ago) and read 3237 times:



Quoting KRIC777 (Reply 7):
Lifting the embargo would be great for the Cuban economy, of course, simply by the tourist dollars that would flow into the country. It wouldn't be bad for the US economy, but I don't see it as a particular benefit, either (other than for people like me, who would like to go to Cuba without breaking the law.) Cuba just wouldn't offer the volume of business opportunities,

It could certainly benefit agriculture and agricultural engineering, because there is a lot of modernization of Cuban agriculture that needs doing and we've got good technology.

In addition we can export a lot of food products to Cuba-dressed poultry, pork and beef, that can improve the standard of living in Cuba.

At some level the Cuban government is going to have to settle with the people they expropriated, within reason-that is going to be a prerequisite to normalization I think.

The population's moderately sized-11 million or so-and the economy is not particularly vibrant, but there's a lot of potential for growth and investment.


User currently offlineRFields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 14, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3201 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 8):
why would Obama be worried about those same Floridians not liking his decision (if he makes it)?

He will be running for re-election in three years. Heck, like all politicians, he's running for re-election now.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
the Cuban government has not accepted any payments on the lease, we haven't made any and we have stayed.

I've been told by a former base commander at Gitmo that the US government has faithfully sent the lease payment check every year since the revolution. It was essential that we pay the lease payments to maintain our claim to having a right to the base.

Fidel made a big deal of not cashing the checks though reportedly the first was cashed apparently accidently back in the early 60's. Cashing that check is cited by the US as acceptance of the lease terms by the Fidel government.

Those items were also in a briefing paper we used to use to answer press queries about Gitmo at the Navy's Chief of Information News Desk - 20 years ago.

Here is a near 2 year old article which summarizes it pretty well.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/articl...4/22/MNGSLPAVUL1.DTL&type=politics

Gitmo provides a good enviornment for training and testing of weapons equipment. With the closure of Roosy Roads and the return of the Vieques, there are not many places left for this type training.

Gitmo was also very good for intensive shipboard training, day trips out with almost no distractions ashore at night.

Don't know if they are still doing that training or not.


User currently offlinePhotopilot From Canada, joined Jul 2002, 2730 posts, RR: 18
Reply 15, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3202 times:

You know, it's not just Gitmo or the restrictions on travel by Americans to Cuba.

Look at what else the 50 year embargo does.

1) It severely curtails Cuba's use of the international banking system. Hell, a Swiss bank was "fined" by the Americans 100 Million Dollars because they handled some Cuban financial transactions.

2) The USA will not allow Cuba to connect to the undersea Fiber Optic Cable for access to modern telecommunications and data transfer. Cuba is still only connected by a 96 circuit copper wire cable to Florida.... or very expensive satellite time on a system to Spain. The USA complains that Cuba will not allow it's citizens Internet access, yet restricts and limits the technology to make that feasable. That's hypocracy!!!!

3) The USA already "sells" food and some medicines to Cuba, but it prohibits the purchase of any Cuban product. That NOT a trading relationship.

4) Any Cruise Ship, no matter the nationality that docks in a Cuban port is forbidden from docking in a US port for 6 months after the Cuban stop. This effectively prohibits International companies from using Cuba as a port of call. The same with cargo vessels, which again severely restricts Cuba's trade ability and increases all shipping costs.

5) For the 17th year in a row, the UN General Assembly voted to have the embargo dropped, and in 2008 the vote was 185 for, and only the United States, Israel and Palau voted against the resolution. Time for the USA to join the program!!

I could go on, but you get the idea. The USA's embargo of Cuba is nothing more than Bully Boys tactics and one of the saddest issues of US Foreign Policy. Time for the USA to mature and learn that Might doesn't make it Right.


User currently offlineVirgin747lgw From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2007, 225 posts, RR: 0
Reply 16, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3191 times:



Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
modern standards of human and civil rights

yes just like the good ol' USA with its equal rights for gay and lesbians...oh wait  Big grin

Actually everybody i know whose been there have remarked that the Cubans (especially the children) seemed much more happy and comfortable with their lives. Money isnt the be all and end all and thats something the west is only starting to realise.


User currently offlineAlessandro From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3129 times:

Could one compare this with the Panamacanal zone that Carter gave back to Panama?
Would the US mining industry benefit from an opening of relations (nickel), off shore oil industry?


User currently offlineN328KF From United States of America, joined May 2004, 6484 posts, RR: 3
Reply 18, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3079 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 3):
Bottom line is -- never mind the 99-year lease and its rather interesting origins -- the US is occupying a piece of Cuban territory and Cuba has a right to expect the US to leave.

It's legally *US* territory. The paperwork here is actually much stronger than what allowed the UK to hold Hong Kong.

Quoting Photopilot (Reply 15):
I could go on, but you get the idea. The USA's embargo of Cuba is nothing more than Bully Boys tactics and one of the saddest issues of US Foreign Policy. Time for the USA to mature and learn that Might doesn't make it Right.

Get rid of your leaders and we'll talk.



When they call the roll in the Senate, the Senators do not know whether to answer 'Present' or 'Not guilty.' T.Roosevelt
User currently offlinePhotopilot From Canada, joined Jul 2002, 2730 posts, RR: 18
Reply 19, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 3044 times:



Quoting N328KF (Reply 18):
It's legally *US* territory. The paperwork here is actually much stronger than what allowed the UK to hold Hong Kong.

You need to study your history some. The LEASE on Guantanamo was entered into as part of the Platt Amendment in 1901 and the lease can only be revoked by the consent of both parties. Something the USA continues to refuse to do, even though the entire Platt Amendment was repealed in 1934, when the Treaty of Relations was negotiated as a part of U.S. President Franklin D. Roosevelt's "Good Neighbor policy" toward Latin America.

Quoting N328KF (Reply 18):
Get rid of your leaders and we'll talk.

Tell me..... What right does the USA have to tell another Soverign Country what they should or should not do, or who they elect or should not elect? That's nothing but American hegemony!


User currently offlineCairo From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2984 times:



Quoting Alessandro (Thread starter):
President Obama gives back Guantánamo bay to Cuba

Relatively speaking, this is a minor issue to the Cubans. I'm certain that if economic sanctions were removed, diplomatic recognization established and some type of normalized trade and travel regulations were put in place, a new agreement (perpetual lease) could be put in place to cover Guantanamo.

Quoting PSA53 (Reply 1):
But only if civil liberties are return to the Cuban people

Oh, crap, this red herring again? The US doesn't care about civil liberties - see chummy US relations with Saudi Arabia, Egypt, etc... - it only cares about neutralizing the country as a security threat.

Moving forward on Cuba is a good 2nd term project for Obama....

Cairo


User currently offlineMham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3605 posts, RR: 3
Reply 21, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2979 times:



Quoting Photopilot (Reply 19):
Tell me..... What right does the USA have to tell another Soverign Country what they should or should not do, or who they elect or should not elect? That's nothing but American hegemony!

No different than Cuba's demand that we have relations. Is that Cuban hegenomy?


User currently offlineDXing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 2945 times:



Quoting Arrow (Reply 6):
It will get democracy restored (oops, sorry -- they never had that did they) far more quickly than the current "drive-them-into-the-ground" policy, which you must admit has been a dismal failure.

How has it been a dismal failure? If we drop Gitmo and the Castros continue business as usual, that would be a failure and we would have no way to get Gitmo back.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
the Cuban government has not accepted any payments on the lease, we haven't made any and we have stayed.

They have accepted every payment we have sent them and we have been faithful in sending them every year. They just don't cash them. What they do with the check is not our business.

Quoting LTBEWR (Reply 12):
I suspect in a few years, once Fidel and Raul are dead and Cuba starts to move toward modern standards of human and civil rights,

That will be the appropriate time to talk with the new government in charge and see what we can do.


User currently offlineScbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12468 posts, RR: 46
Reply 23, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 2943 times:
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Quoting DXing (Reply 22):
How has it been a dismal failure?

How, exactly, has it been a roaring success?  confused 



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineDXing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (5 years 7 months 2 days ago) and read 2939 times:



Quoting Scbriml (Reply 23):
How, exactly, has it been a roaring success?

Yes, I forgot that Cuba is the workers paradise.  sarcastic 


25 TWAL1011727 : If we did that it would be like Germany or any other country with a U.S. military base kicking the U.S. out.....Remember Clark A.F.B. and Naval base
26 Arrow : The goal was to get rid of Castro. When it didn't work quickly, the Bay of Pigs was tried. And when that didn't work, back to the embargo. Given the
27 Post contains links DXing : The secondary goal was to bring democracy to Cuba, the primary reason was to punish Castro for seizing American owned company property and nationaliz
28 STT757 : I don't see the Navy Base at Guantanamo Bay closing regardless of whether or not US/Cuba relations improve, keep in mind the media keeps using the he
29 Photopilot : Cuba is not demanding that they have relations with the USA. What Cuba is demanding is that the USA stop it's illegal financial and economic blockage
30 Mham001 : Can you tell me what's illegal about it? Who's laws are the US breaking?
31 EA CO AS : And how's that working out for ya?
32 KRIC777 : I have NO IDEA whether this is true....but some time ago, I read somewhere that the USA pays a rent or lease payment to Cuba every month/year (whateve
33 MD11Engineer : Subic Bay and Clark were similar remenants. IIRC, the US paid a yearly amount of $ 1 million for the use of these two bases (plus several smaller one
34 Par13del : Anyone really believe that the US govt. is responsible for the embargo on Cuba? Technically yes, but it is the powerful Cuban lobby from Florida who h
35 Baroque : Good lateral thinking there Jan, but although Gitmo is pretty much on a plate boundary it is rather deficient in volcanoes compared with your average
36 Santosdumont : The only thing the embargo has done is provide Fidel (and now Raul) with political cover to divert attention away from their abysmal human rights rec
37 Csavel : You are correct in your history. Although Cuba cites a treaty (I think called the Vienna treaty) that nullifies treaties like the Guantanamo leases i
38 Photopilot : You also have to remember that 100's of millions of dollars have been spent by the US Gov't on Anti-Cuba activities, support, groups, and dissidents.
39 DXing : Yet there are 4 other countries that have billion dollar trades with Cuba. Why in the world would then need us? It works especially well when there a
40 Baroque : As you perhaps suggest it about as strategic as the average KFC franchise is strategic! Nice post. Summarises the madness. The strategy seems to be i
41 DXing : Sounds like there is nothing different than any other government run program to me.
42 Scbriml : I didn't realise turning Cuba into a "workers paradise" was one of the aims of the embargo! Paradise or not, in what way has the embargo been a great
43 Santosdumont : Think of the benefits for US business and entrepreneurs... not to mention to effect that such a a presence would have in Cuba. You can blame the emba
44 AlexEU : Cuban gov considers G.B. to be illigal. I can't imagine what would happen if Cuba had attacked Guantanamo Bay by force (certainly now it is almost imp
45 ME AVN FAN : - A recent interview done with Raoul Castro says that the answer to your question is NO ! Raoul Castro clearly wants normal economic relations with t
46 MD11Engineer : The problem is that even foreign businessesfall under US regulations (and can be sued in the US) if they either have business connections (like a bra
47 DfwRevolution : Because presumably Obama is going to run again in 2012. There are also Congressional mid-term elections in 2010 and there's about a half-dozen Democr
48 Santosdumont : No admission is needed. The same government is in place as when the embargo came into being almost half a century ago, and that government plays the
49 Photopilot : My, that must make you feel so proud to inflict poverty on others. How ever do you look at yourself in the mirror?
50 DXing : So by your measure we should just ditch whatever principles we have and roll? That makes sense. I think the loss is small potatoes. You can blame Cas
51 Santosdumont : Tell that to the farmers who would have the perfect staging area to grow sugarcane-based ethanol, which is more efficient and robust than its corn-ba
52 Arrow : That's schoolyard stuff. Admitting mistakes is a sign of maturity, not weakness. And the trade embargo has been a dismal failure -- unless of course
53 DXing : Which still won't replace oil no matter how much the dream lives on. Also, ethano contributes to larger cocentrations of ground based ozone. Nah...th
54 DfwRevolution : Cuba wouldn't change the fact that ethanol is a dead-end for U.S. energy policy. 1. Which is a testament to the resolve of Fidel's regime for sure. 2
55 Photopilot : You know, I challenge all of you to Google Cuba + terrorist against + CIA and see just how much terrorism has been sponsorted BY THE USA and the CIA A
56 Santosdumont : If the United States wants to continue addicted to the OPEC pushers whose governments fund Islamic terrorists, I suppose that's its prerogative. But
57 DXing : Again, name the alternative that does all the same things that oil does at the same or less price. Enjoy your trip. With the rest of the world to tra
58 Santosdumont : That's a false dilemma....at this point biofuels are in a position to start serving only as a complement to fossil fuels, IMHO. But the (lucrative) o
59 Post contains links DXing : Name the substance, that is your dilemma. At what cost compared to oil? And when they are economically competitive they will become lucrative and peo
60 Post contains links NAV20 : Absolutely correct, KRIC. The rent is only $4,000 per annum, with no provision for review - rumours abound that Castro used to use the cheques for 's
61 Photopilot : Which of course means that you clearly know not of what you speak. I've been going to Cuba since the late 1990's but I also need to clarify that. Sin
62 Par13del : A lot of people call it a racist policy, lets see what the Obama administration does about it. My understanding of Cuba from our proximity and person
63 Santosdumont : Not when an artificial barrier to trade like the embargo is in place. I just pointed you in the right direction...besides, you don't pay long-distanc
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