UAL747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR: Posted (5 years 6 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 1866 times:
"U.S. Defense Secretary Robert Gates said Sunday there is little doubt that the planned launch is designed to bolster that North Korea's military capability.
He also indicated that the U.S. military could be prepared to shoot down a North Korean missile if the rogue regime develops the capability to reach Hawaii or the western continental United States in a future launch.
The North Korean government says it will launch a commercial satellite atop a rocket sometime between April 4 and April 8."
If they are launching a satellite, it will have to go over Japan.
The US says they plan not to shoot it down unless it enters US airspace, but we have sent two destroyers toward N. Korea, and Japanese Vessels have also sent warships to the Korean Peninsula with missiles to destroy it should it be necessary. Japanese defense systems are on alert as I'm sure S. Korean defense is as well.
If they are capable of launching a satellite into space, the missile to also be used as an ICBM.
China and Russia would have to feel threatened long before we could do anything practical about it, otherwise we might spin off something we really don't want. That being said, as much as we "think" we are at odds with China and Russia, I'm pretty sure they really don't want N. Korea having these capabilities as much as we do.
You need pressure or an alliance with China and Russia in order to have an effective attack on North Korea. But S. Korea would take the brunt of retaliation, just because it's there....even if they didn't attack as well.
AGM100 From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 5407 posts, RR: 17
Reply 4, posted (5 years 6 months 4 weeks 1 hour ago) and read 1834 times:
According to what I have heard if the flight profile of the missile appears to be like the last one . That is , a flight path close to Japanese airspace and threatening in nature ... The Japanese navy will fire on the missile . This should be interesting ....
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Unless it head towards the US, nothing. We have more than enough problems to handle right now. Russia, China, Japan, S. Korea, and the UN can handle it. Not to be callous, but we don't need to go kicking over any more ant hills right now. While we are at it, we should probaby re-evaluate the need for our continued presence in S. Korea, along with some of our other distant outposts.
Besides, for all we know it may suffer another pre-mature detonation.
Problem is, the South Koreans (especially the younger generations) don't really want it, they have their own problems to deal with. Just came back from South Korea on Friday, and spent some time at the DMZ, and I cannot imagine two countries more different than what South Korea and North Korea are right now, it would be way, way worse than West and East Germany - it is almost like proposing to merge Japan with Ethiopia.
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LTU932 From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 13864 posts, RR: 50
Reply 9, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1710 times:
Quoting Pyrex (Reply 8): it would be way, way worse than West and East Germany
It is way worse than the difference between West- and East Germany. Not only would they have to deal with a bankrupt economy, they'd also have to deal with the brainwashing that the dictatorship in Pyongyang has performed on its people. It would go beyond infrastructure, liberties and economy, it's simply easier said than done.
The unification of the DDR with Germany was much easier, because West German interests were much better represented in the DDR than ROK interests in the DPRK (both political and economical). Also, there was also lots of transit between the two Germanies and better possibilities for West Germans and citizens of West Berlin to get a weekend visa to visit relatives on the other side of the border, even though we all know the DDR wasn't as generous to its own citizens as it was to those in the West. Part of the reason why they allowed West Germans in was most likely the fact that they brought hard currency into the country (mostly D-Mark and the odd US Dollar) and were forced to exchange it against the rather worthless DDR-Mark. Also, in the DDR, there was a certain degree of intellectual freedom. It's not freedom like we know it, but what I mean is that people were not brainwashed into believing that e.g. Erich Honecker was a God or something. They could think freely but be careful with what they think, because one false move and they're forever under surveillance by the STASI.
In North Korea, things are much more broken than they were in the DDR. For example, there's a huge personal cult surrounding Krazy Kim, that kids get educated into thinking that he's God or something, and those who even try to think freely get summarily executed. All that alone, not just the huge debt and the broken economy, would pose a huge obstacle for re-unification of both Koreas. Unlike the DDR, which heavily relied on hard currency from the West for its survival, the DPRK is so deep into its Juche (self reliance) ideology that, apart from the flights from PEK and perhaps the once or twice yearly visitors from South Korea, they are pretty much fully isolated.
IliriBDL From Germany, joined May 2007, 1205 posts, RR: 14
Reply 10, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1705 times:
Quoting Pyrex (Reply 8): Problem is, the South Koreans (especially the younger generations) don't really want it, they have their own problems to deal with. Just came back from South Korea on Friday, and spent some time at the DMZ, and I cannot imagine two countries more different than what South Korea and North Korea are right now, it would be way, way worse than West and East Germany - it is almost like proposing to merge Japan with Ethiopia.
I believe you, the situation is really bad in North Korea. I've seen numerous documentaries about the communist regime in Albania (which lasted until 1991) and I can only imagine how bad the North Koreans have it there, living in a what I call "a police state" where the govt has total control of daily life.
Falcon84 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (5 years 6 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1680 times:
Quoting AGM100 (Reply 4): The Japanese navy will fire on the missile . This should be interesting ....
It would be historic. It would mean Japan, for really the first time since WWII, is willing to use what power it has against another nation. In this case, I really don't blame them. Although, in fairness, if the U.S., Russia, China, Japan, et al, have the right to fire off a missile test or a satillite, so does the DRPK. That's why I don't think Japan shoots it down. If they do, things could get really sticky. Obama's first foreign policy crisis? Perhaps.