FlyingColours From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2315 posts, RR: 11 Posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1407 times:
Well it was announced earlier that National Express East Coast (NXEC) who operate the East Coast Mainline passenger franchise have lost their right to operate it due to falling passenger numbers and increased financial losses. The government will therefore operate the franchise under public ownership for an indefinate period. This has happened previously when Connex lost all of their franchises (South Central, & South East) as no company came forward to operate South Eastern for quite a while so it was operated under public ownership (and ran quite well)
Although I don't use the ECML myself I find it hard to believe that they are suffering falling passenger numbers (I always hear repeated stories of mass overcrowding) and again with the financial losses, I see that their ticket prices are in the realms of 50% more than WCML tickets so with huge passenger loads how can they be loosing money?
I am unsure as to the financial losses meaning just NXEC or National Express as a whole, because I'm wondering why their other rail franchise hasn't been taken off them yet.
As the government is going to be looking for companies which wish to operate it does leave one puzzled as to who could operate it, the ironically named Last Group (ahem - First Group) can not do it since they have the Great Western, Capital Connect, Scotrail and Hull Trains franchises, which would give them way too much ownership. Virgin couldn't either because they operate the WCML which would give them the monopoly on London - Scotland routes. Stagecoach could possibly do it but they do have quite a bit of presence now with East Midland Trains and the integrated former Midland Mainline. I'd be more in favour of a new independant operator rather than one of the big 3.
I'm just trying to imagine any unimaginative livery that the new franchise will have now that the government is running the show. Obviously to reduce spending etc they won't put any effort in and keep it in some weird hybrid. I just think it's kind of ironic that GNER who held the franchise since privatisation was forced to "overbid" to keep it last year but was booted out anyway because the government said that their bid was too much and that their parent company was having financial problems - even though GNER were not.
So maybe they would come back and do what they do best, run a railway, and do a fairly good job of it.
* - I thought I would leave out any remarks about the tax payer footing the bill or how people are going to suffer through service cuts etc...
Phil
FlyingColours
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
IH8BY From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2005, 1117 posts, RR: 3 Reply 1, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 1390 times:
Quoting FlyingColours (Thread starter): Although I don't use the ECML myself I find it hard to believe that they are suffering falling passenger numbers (I always hear repeated stories of mass overcrowding) and again with the financial losses, I see that their ticket prices are in the realms of 50% more than WCML tickets so with huge passenger loads how can they be loosing money?
As with GNER, National Express was crippled by the amount it paid for the franchise - arguably it was ambitious at the time, but now that premium ticket sales are falling, it has been even more unlikely that they would be able to foot the bill.
Quoting FlyingColours (Thread starter): Stagecoach could possibly do it but they do have quite a bit of presence now with East Midland Trains and the integrated former Midland Mainline.
Stagecoach are also a 49% partner in Virgin Trains, so if you exclude Virgin from operating the East Coast, it makes sense to exclude Stagecoach as well.
Quoting FlyingColours (Thread starter): I'd be more in favour of a new independant operator rather than one of the big 3.
Perhaps, but I don't see how an independent operator could afford the East Coast if neither National Express nor Sea Containers (GNER) could manage it. It's easy enough for Hull Trains and Grand Central to operate their niche open-access services, but the ECML is another matter altogether. Perhaps DB or SNCF would like to give it a try - or maybe even they are too scared of the British railway system!
Seeing as this is not the first time that the East Coast has caused an operator significant difficulties (and, judging by the news over the last few months, this has been coming for a long time), one would think that it would be worth re-examining the model by which the rail franchises are tendered out. The Intercity East Coast services should be a lucrative franchise - a strong market with high business custom, relatively good infrastructure with consistently high speeds, decent (if now quite old) train equipment, and a journey proposition that is a realistic alternative to other modes of transport. So apparently lucrative, indeed, that TOCs are prepared to bid more than envisaged in the government's wildest dreams.
Whether we like it or not, we have to look at the way in which rail privatisation has been carried out, and the picture is not a pretty one. Proponents of the privatised system will point to the increased investment and the improvements in services and rolling stock. Indeed, there are fancy new trains now in service across the country. But there's a story behind that. The taxpayer is shelling out far more for rail services than under British Rail, and ticket prices are higher - doubtless if BR had received similar amounts of money, similar advances would have happened.
The real problem, of which the GNER/NXEC troubles are symptomatic, is that the rail system as we know it is not uniformly suited to privatisation, and so the result has been a compromise that has neither the benefits of a connected nationalised system nor those of a vibrant private-sector market. Government guarantees, a lack of competition, and a captive market have together ensured that much of the expected innovation that the private sector would bring is largely unnecessary for TOCs to fulfil their franchises. Ticket prices can rise, service standards can fall, and to a certain extent people will still keep travelling as there's no alternative, either in terms of rail operators or indeed other modes of transportation. At the same time, the persisting focus on profit (which outside this situation is not necessarily a bad thing) has continued. A combination of the wastefulness, inefficiency, and lack of customer focus that is sometimes seen from the public sector with an unfettered drive for profits and rationalisation of unprofitable services has meant that invariably consumers lose out, taxpayers lose out, and TOCs win. Add the financial crisis and the issue of the government's preference for large bids as opposed to realistic service provision, and even the TOCs start to falter. Nobody's winning!
Have you ever felt like you could float into the sky / like the laws of physics simply don't apply?
Excuse me, I work for that "Group" thank you - its not all bad.
Anyway, rumour has it that First Group will probably bid, and win the ECML, as they seem to be the only company at the moment with the funds to make a sucess of it.
As for the government - can anyone say "Greed"?? I mean, it would have been easy to renegotiate the payments, until the economy improves, but oh no, they have to pay off the national debt somehow, eh?
FlyingColours From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2315 posts, RR: 11 Reply 3, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1338 times:
Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 2): Excuse me, I work for that "Group" thank you - its not all bad.
Ah I forgot you worked for TPEX, somehow have the video of you getting stuck in the 185 door springs to mind :p
Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 2): Anyway, rumour has it that First Group will probably bid, and win the ECML, as they seem to be the only company at the moment with the funds to make a sucess of it.
If they did get it they would have to give up an existing franchise, I'm looking in the direction of Scotrail since that seems to have taken on a new identity (it's pretty much nationalised already) though I don't believe that the SRA will go for it considering the huge monopoly that they would have in England (not really wales since FGW do not have too many services in there).
Quoting IH8BY (Reply 1): Stagecoach are also a 49% partner in Virgin Trains, so if you exclude Virgin from operating the East Coast, it makes sense to exclude Stagecoach as well.
I did remember that when posting but somehow managed to forget mentioning it, good point. To add to that Stagecoach also have South West Trains which operate a sizeable amount of services in London and the South West. Giving them a similar footprint in the South & South West as First Group (mainly FGW rather than FCC).
Quoting IH8BY (Reply 1): Perhaps DB or SNCF would like to give it a try - or maybe even they are too scared of the British railway system!
Well Deutsche Bahn are technically here now as DB Schenker (one of their subsidiaries) now own EWS, so that would make them a likley candidate especially considering their success with the ICE trains in Germany. I'm sure they would like to try their hand at operating the fastest line in the UK (Not counting High Speed 1).
I do wholeheartedly agree with your points regarding the way privatisation has been carried out, and how the rail system itself is not suited to it. I really could offer my opinion on privatisation but that would be suited to a thread of it's own
Phil
FlyingColours
Lifes a train racing towards you, now you can either run away or grab a chair & a beer and watch it come - Phil
IH8BY From United Kingdom, joined Jun 2005, 1117 posts, RR: 3 Reply 4, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1338 times:
Quoting BMIFlyer (Reply 2): Anyway, rumour has it that First Group will probably bid, and win the ECML, as they seem to be the only company at the moment with the funds to make a sucess of it.
Ha, but we'll see how they look by the end of it! Plus they will be rather dominant on this stretch of line, stretching from First Capital Connect, First Hull Trains, First TransPennineExpress, and (pretending it's not First) ScotRail. I'm just not sure I want to see any more purple in this part of the country!
Have you ever felt like you could float into the sky / like the laws of physics simply don't apply?
OA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 24889 posts, RR: 60 Reply 5, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 1265 times:
Well National Express thought that when they took on the tender in 2007 that they would make at least 10% profit. They have barely made 1% and now are loosing £100,000 a day because they expected lots of well healed Business travellers to fork out £286 for a train ticket from Newcastle to London.
OLYMPIC AIR - ΟΛΥΜΠΙΑΚΗ "Η ΕΛΛΑΔΑ ΨΗΛΑ" "GREECE FLYING HIGH"
Extspotter From United Kingdom, joined May 2007, 992 posts, RR: 1 Reply 6, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 1244 times:
Basically if First doesnt win the franchise when it goes back into private sector, I would eat my face. There is a load of reasons for this:
1. Virgin cant win, it would give them monopoly on London - Scotland
2. Stagecoach can't win, they own 49% of Virgin West Coast
3. GoAhead has noexperience in this market (Express or anything out of Southeast)
4. Arriva can't win because they have their hands more than full trying to sort out the grand f'up on Crosscountry, after Virgin's "Operation Princess" which more than doubled frequency, but halved capacity per train, causing unbelieveable overcrowding, which even with this current lowering of traffic means that their Voyagers have got standing room only in 3 carriages of their 4 carriage voyagers, and one carriage completely empty because noone is using First Class anymore.
5. Deutsche Bahn can't win because the railway bits of the government are still sore after they tried to force paths for ICE services through the channel tunnel.
6. First must win seeing as they have most experience and least conflicting servies (Hull trains is open access, first capital connect, first transpennine and (first) scotrail all compliment the ECML).
AF BE BY FR MV PD SZ U2 VZ DHC6, 8-3/4Q, 732/8, 763ER, A319, A380
Qantas744 From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 246 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 1152 times:
Me and a few thousand other SWT employees are looking at this situation and wondering if we are next, media sources continue to suggest that SWT was vastly overbid and we are now in serious difficulties.
you can't buy time but you can sell your soul and the closest thing to heaven is to rock'n'roll
Candid76 From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2005, 710 posts, RR: 5 Reply 10, posted (3 years 10 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 1103 times:
Question is, until the economy rebounds, does it really need to be refranchised? If it is put back out to tender quickly then the Government will attract lower bids than they will once the situation improves. Also, unlike Connex, this is an inter-city franchise and the Government will learn much more about its true costs and revenue potential by operating it for a couple of years which will help it get the best from future franchise competitions.
If it is re-let, I say give it to Ned Rail. The Northern franchise, once considered to be a basket case, has been very successful under Ned Rail. OK it doesn't make money, but it was never expected to, and passenger numbers and reliability are booming, with the prospect of new trains coming in a couple of years time.
I use TPE all the time (twice already this week) and I rate them too. I like the 185s, and had pleasant rides on the 170s this week (to Hull as my normal route to Barnetby is shut). On the other hand, First Manchester runs all my local bus services, they are an absolute rip off, and although considerable investment has been made in new vehicles over the last couple of years, this year's order was cancelled in its entirety. TPE and First Manchester are the two extremes of First, it is a very inconsistent organisation and that is its problem.
I am not surprised that National Express is in such a state. This is the worst of all the UK groups. First made a bid for them very recently that was rejected, but I expect a takeover of NatEx by First to happen sooner rather than later.
Sponsor Message: 
From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2003, 2315 posts, 
From UK - England, joined Feb 2004, 8810 posts, 
From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 24889 posts, 
From UK - Scotland, joined Jun 2000, 24621 posts, 
From Kazakhstan, joined Jul 2007, 6276 posts, 
Printer friendly format 
