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Arctic Sea Ice Update  
User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (5 years 3 days ago) and read 3527 times:

Ok, it's that time of the year again: the race of the sun vs the thinning ice. We've bust most recorded years already, and for the moment it seems we're tracking in between the record low 2007 and the past year. Anything can happen though, the ice is thin and the margins large.

The graph below autoupdates daily:

http://www.ijis.iarc.uaf.edu/seaice/extent/AMSRE_Sea_Ice_Extent.png

41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 1, posted (5 years 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3472 times:



Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
Ok, it's that time of the year again:

Thank you AU, I was just beginning to think I should wonder how it was going. Swimmingly, as the polar bear said to its cub! Mind you I have trouble with colourful graphs like that being red green colour blind and all, but eventually I found the incomplete grey line (in joke that will be appreciated by all the other RG colour blind folk!). Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

I presume the amount of multi year ice is less than ever.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 2, posted (5 years 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 3460 times:

Actually the lime colored line (2007) seems to be the lowest point, with the llue ((2003) and light blue (2004) line seem to be the highest points. It looks like the red (2009) line is tracking about half way between the lowest and highest points, and is going to end up above the orange (2008) line, too.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
I presume the amount of multi year ice is less than ever.

The lowest point on the graph (mid September) shows a high point of about 6.1 million square kilometers of ice in 2003 and a low point of about 4.2 million square kilometers of ice in 2007. If this graph follows the roughly same track as past years, it looks like mid September we will have about 5 million square kilometers of ice in the Artic Ocean.

So, if this trend is correct, the Artic is cooling agin this year.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

Yes, it is at least thought that because there was more snow than normal in Sept. 2005 thru March 2006 (which normally indicates warmer temps in the Artic), then got colder than normal from about mid March 2006 thru August 2006, and stayed colder until about November 2006. At least that is NOAAs theory.

Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
Anything can happen though, the ice is thin and the margins large.

Actually, from this chart, you can only tell how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick, or thin it is. Usually, for the ice cap surface area to be accurately tracked, it is thick enough to drive heavy trucks onto the surface, about 1 meter (39") thick, or more. There are only two ways to accurately measure the thickness of the ice, one is to drill core samples and measure the lenght, the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.


User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (5 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3419 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 1):
Wonder why 2006 headed so far S and then recovered, are the reasons for that known?

The NSIDC had this commentary of the year 2006:
However, air temperatures dipped a bit lower in August. "August broke the Arctic heat wave and slowed the melt, and storm conditions led to wind patterns that tend to spread the existing ice over a larger area," Serreze said. Then, in September, temperatures returned to the above-normal pattern.
2006 link

Wind patterns as the reason sounds plausible, after all sea ice is very much afloat, and the effects of the wind would go either way of course.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
Actually, from this chart, you can only tell how much surface area the ice covers, not how thick, or thin it is.

That is an understood. The amplitude of the yearly phase seems to me to be increasing, which I'd interpret as an indication of thin "easy come -- easy go" type of ice.
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090406_Figure5.png




Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
So, if this trend is correct, the Artic is cooling agin this year.

Would not bet all my farm animals on it just yet -- and then as you said, this is just the area we're seeing. (NSICD)

http://nsidc.org/images/arcticseaicenews/20090706_Figure3.png


User currently offlineDXing From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (5 years 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3395 times:



Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
We've bust most recorded years already

Wow, 30 years, that's certainly a long long time. Remind me, how long has it been since just the last ice age?


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 5, posted (5 years 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 3347 times:



Quoting DXing (Reply 4):
Quoting AverageUser (Thread starter):
We've bust most recorded years already

Wow, 30 years, that's certainly a long long time.

Yr complaint is only partly valid, the winter and summer ice limits had been plotted - albeit much less accurately - for a long time. I certainly have maps going to 1940 - wonder why 1940!!!! More interestingly, there was little mention of systematic changes in those limits even though changes might well have occurred.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
The amplitude of the yearly phase seems to me to be increasing, which I'd interpret as an indication of thin "easy come -- easy go" type of ice.
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

Nice chart and certainly suggests that older thicker ice is even more on the wane than the Sept areal extent. And  Big grin maps and charts that are great for the colour blind.  Big grin

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
Would not bet all my farm animals on it just yet -- and then as you said, this is just the area we're seeing. (NSICD)

One thread type we never seem to have had is least squares (or any other of the multitude of criteria) curve fitting!!  beady  Back to the cooling since 1998 sterile argument - NOT!!!! One of our locals stats folks had bothered to do the stats on overall temps since the hot year and worked out what you could prove by taking various origins. Interestingly, he still got warming with the hot year as the zero year. Unfortunately it was not a program with transcripts. Mind you it is not really a highly exhausting exercise to do. But all my tuits* are square this week!!!


* There are two basic kinds of tuit, square tuits and round tuits - as in when I get a round to it.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 6, posted (5 years 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3306 times:



Quoting DXing (Reply 4):
Remind me, how long has it been since just the last ice age?

The last full blown ice age (where glasures extended down to approximately a line from Washington, DC to St. Louis, MO to Denver, CO to San Francisco, CA on the North American continent) was about 11,000 years ago.

There was a "mini ice age" from about 1300 AD to about 1650 AD. Temps in Europe plummeted and the Vikings were forced to abandon settlements in Greenland.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 3):
Better folks than myself have drawn a chart on this:

I don't understand how they determine the age of ice as 1, 2, 3, or more years old. I know that very old sea ice (more than 100 years old) haave leaced out all of the salt content. But, as I understand it, it is very difficult to determine the sea ice salt content of ice less than about 30 years old, because of minor variations in salt content in the ocean waters.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 5):
Nice chart and certainly suggests that older thicker ice is even more on the wane than the Sept areal extent.

This colored chart, with seasonal symbols may help my friend. Even though each season has a different color, they are also on different levels and have different symbols.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...AGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg

As you can see, annual, winter, autum, and spring ice levels between about 1900 and 1953 remain relitively constant. Summer ice levels are all over the place.

Between about 1953 and 1998, there is a slight decline in annual, winter, autum and spring levels. Then in 1998 there is an increase spike in winter and spring ice levels while autum and summer (and as a result annual) levels drop.

There is amajor decline in all levels between 2005 and 2007, but in 2008 to current, spring ice levels seem to level off, winter and summer levels increase. Of course there would be no data, yet for the autum of 2009, thus no annual average.

It seems to me the summer ice level lines are not really a good indicator, as the line varies greatly. The Winter, autum, spring, and annual lines seem to reflect more reliable data.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 7, posted (5 years 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 3295 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
This colored chart, with seasonal symbols may help my friend. Even though each season has a different color, they are also on different levels and have different symbols.

http://arctic.atmos.uiuc.edu/cryosph...AGES/seasonal.extent.1900-2007.jpg

As you can see, annual, winter, autum, and spring ice levels between about 1900 and 1953 remain relitively constant. Summer ice levels are all over the place.

It must be "help the handicapped week" - even without the symbols those colours are clear. Off topic, it is not that RG colour blind folk cannot see colours, it is that it is difficult to distinguish some colours. Basically if the colour distinction depends on a small amount of red submerged as it were in some other colour, we dont see a thing.

Back again on the ice (used to be a keen skater too) summer extent takes a turn down in 1954 then a shelf before falling off just after 1970. And that jump in winter ice in 1998 is associated with a fairly low summer which is also an inflexion point for the present trend towards lack of (summer) ice. I did know how multi year ice is determined, it certainly shows in thickness, ah here it is:
http://nsidc.org/seaice/characteristics/multiyear.html
Multiyear ice has distinct properties that distinguish it from first-year ice, based on processes that occur during the summer melt. Multiyear ice contains much less brine and more air pockets than first-year ice. Less brine means "stiffer" ice that is more difficult for icebreakers to navigate and clear.

AND
First-year and multiyear ice have different electromagnetic properties that satellite sensors can detect,

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 6):
It seems to me the summer ice level lines are not really a good indicator, as the line varies greatly. The Winter, autumn, spring, and annual lines seem to reflect more reliable data.

Depends what you are looking for. It appears that so far, the Arctic is able to develop similar sized ice sheets in mid winter, but once that summer extent drops, most is AU's "easy come, easy go" ice and when it is gone, this has major implications for the heat uptake in the high latitudes during the long summer days. If the upper layers of the ocean get sufficiently warm that will eventually start to restrict winter ice growth.

I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.


User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (5 years 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3290 times:

Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
Off topic, it is not that RG colour blind folk cannot see colours, it is that it is difficult to distinguish some colours.

I got an idea on that: a button switchbox for VGA computer monitors that swaps the red, green and blue signal lines in different combinations. Quite simple to implement. I'd think in most cases using the monitor's blue channel in lieu of the red or the green would make the hard-to-see colour combinations different enough to the rg-axis chromatically challenged persons.

Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think). Lack of frost has made caused a lot of trouble for foresting here lately, but this winter there were two old-fashioned months.

http://www.metsafi-lehti.fi/index.php?action=article-getImage&article-imageId=980

http://www.metsafi-lehti.fi/index.php?action=article-getImage&article-imageId=982

[Edited 2009-07-23 09:43:23]

User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 9, posted (5 years 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 3239 times:



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
I got an idea on that: a button switchbox for VGA computer monitors that swaps the red, green and blue signal lines in different combinations. Quite simple to implement. I'd think in most cases using the monitor's blue channel in lieu of the red or the green would make the hard-to-see colour combinations different enough to the rg-axis chromatically challenged persons

Interesting thought. However a combination of colours chosen for separation in the Y to Blue and ensuring that both the area coloured and the key boxes have sufficient area. "Colour" that appear obscure in a what the butler tried to see presentation can become clear if a bit larger.

I presume in the top pic the machine is pumping water from below the ice?? I guess that is quicker than waiting for heat flow through the ice. In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

A whole different world. The only ice we get around here is in the freezer or the once every two or three year thunderstorm with hail.


User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (5 years 17 hours ago) and read 3207 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
I presume in the top pic the machine is pumping water from below the ice?? I guess that is quicker than waiting for heat flow through the ice

Yep, that's the idea. The story here here has smoe illustrations of the device which combines the pump and the ice auger. According to the story one can begin roadbuilding in at least -10 C, and then a layer of 2 cm of ice can be added bi-daily, up to 5 cm daily on colder weather.


Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

With the light weight of their equipment artificial thickening probably would not have helped much, they would have needed to form the snow walls to contain the water, and any snowfall needs to be removed (by the present standards) as layers of slush make ice weak.


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (5 years 16 hours ago) and read 3194 times:



Quoting AverageUser (Reply 10):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 9):
In the relief of Leningrad they just waited for natural thickening IIRC.

With the light weight of their equipment artificial thickening probably would not have helped much, they would have needed to form the snow walls to contain the water, and any snowfall needs to be removed (by the present standards) as layers of slush make ice weak.

Now that I know from a couple of weeks spent skating on heavy snow, part melted and refrozen so we had about 4 cms ice, 1 cm water and then under that about 8 cms of the first ice to form. As the thaw developed, it was not so difficult to hole through into the middle water layer of ice - but that was much better than going right through. One of my youthful triumphs was rescuing (with a hockey stick) a dog that fell through the ice while I was skating on the thicker part!!

Interesting stuff ice.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 10):
The story here here has some illustrations of the device which combines the pump and the ice auger. According to the story one can begin roadbuilding in at least -10 C, and then a layer of 2 cm of ice can be added bi-daily, up to 5 cm daily on colder weather.

Neat system. Obvious once you think about it, but came as a surprise. I see what you mean about heavy equipment. I had not thought of the Russian stuff as light, but compared with that lot, well yes!! But narrow tyres too. Not to mention the Germans bombing holes in the ice.

Then there was project Habakkuk.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Project_Habakkuk

Winnie was dead keen at one stage. Maybe it could be reinvented if lack of Arctic ice becomes a problem. No it cannot be called Bear Island, there is already one of those!!


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 12, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 23 hours ago) and read 3146 times:

This rather argues that the chances for a "record" year are high

http://www.smh.com.au/environment/wa...-seas-on-record-20090724-dw6c.html

Global ocean surface temperatures for June were the highest since records began, in 1880, breaking the record set in 2005, the National Ocean and Atmospheric Administration of the United States says.

The average sea surface temperature for June, measured by satellites and buoys, was 0.59 degrees above the 20th-century average of 16.4 degrees.

The combined land and sea temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. The US agency is one of three international groups that supply data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.


But what happens to the ice will depend too upon winds.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3126 times:



Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.

The latest I found was this 13 may 2009 report from the Woods Hole Institute in Massachusetts.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releases/2009-05/whoi-sfs051309.php

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes). Ice over land needs to be 4" (10cm) thick to protect the permafrost.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 12):
The average sea surface temperature for June, measured by satellites and buoys, was 0.59 degrees above the 20th-century average of 16.4 degrees.

The combined land and sea temperature was the second warmest on record, behind 2005. The US agency is one of three international groups that supply data to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Since this is an "el Nino" year, I would expect a slight warmer ocean average. In "la Nina" years, the average ocean temps are slightly cooler.

As far as the UN-IPCC is concerned, they are not very truthful in releasing all the data they collect or receive for outside agancies. The IPCC is more of a political organization than a scientific one.

I doubt the average temps effect the ice increases or decreases each year. What would effect them more is the average Arctic Ocean temp, which in the summer month, has an average temp around 29-30F (-1 to -1.5C).

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/2...-record-keeping%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D/


User currently offlineDavid L From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 9523 posts, RR: 42
Reply 14, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3117 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

110 cm = 1.1 m = 43.3"
90 cm = 0.9 m = 35.4"


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 15, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3117 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

You might find that 110 cm is really quite close to a metre, a bit more really. You could be confusing his ice with a 105 mm calibre gun perhaps??


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 16, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3078 times:



Quoting David L (Reply 14):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting AverageUser (Reply 8):
Below should be some pics of a Finnish ice road. The "official" requirement is 110 cm of solid ice, but the best they could "engineer" and freeze up that winter was 90 cm, and the truckload is therefore not quite full (100% = 48 tons I think).

So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

110 cm = 1.1 m = 43.3"
90 cm = 0.9 m = 35.4"



Quoting Baroque (Reply 15):
You might find that 110 cm is really quite close to a metre, a bit more really. You could be confusing his ice with a 105 mm calibre gun perhaps??

Oops. me bad and put the decimal point in the wrong place. I confused 110 cm with 1.10 cm.

I know better than that, but screwed it up anyway.  banghead   banghead   banghead 

Baroque, did you find those charts useful?

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.

http://wattsupwiththat.com/2009/06/2...-record-keeping%E2%80%A6%E2%80%9D/

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 7):
I have not seen much on the southerly N Atlantic deep current recently, it was reported as slowing.

The latest I found was this 13 may 2009 report from the Woods Hole Institute in Massachusetts.

http://www.eurekalert.org/pub_releas...9.php



User currently offlinePyrex From Portugal, joined Aug 2005, 3931 posts, RR: 28
Reply 17, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3050 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.

Wouldn't an ice radar pushed IN FRONT OF a pick-up truck be more... humm... safe? Big grin



Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 18, posted (4 years 12 months 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 3030 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
I know better than that, but screwed it up anyway. banghead banghead banghead

But think of all the joy you gave to a whole heap of folk!!!  bigthumbsup   bigthumbsup   bigthumbsup  Why has the "reply text" in Firefox gone so small yesterday and today? My typing looks like a (small) spiders track.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):

Baroque, did you find those charts useful?

Sorry the colored chart with the K temp. ranges on it are so hard to read, because the lines are very thin. But, the other charts should be useful.


Probably useful but more a conundrum. Then again, we do tend to progress from one conundtrum to the next. And still thinking about them, no real problems with the colours. The plateau does look odd, but I guess you would want to see another couple of weeks of it. Presumably it means something, but what!!! Still room for plenty of melting at the plateau temp but not as much as if it followed the curve, presumably.

Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all. So the SOI has gone from about -15 in June to a latest value I have of +12 (smoothed so don't get that excited about variability). But it will be interesting to see where the SOI is in a week or two. Surely we cannot find the SOI decoupled from El N? That would really put a few cats among a flock of unhappy pigeons. Or maybe rumours of an El Nino are a bit premature.


User currently offlineTheRedBaron From Mexico, joined Mar 2005, 2189 posts, RR: 8
Reply 19, posted (4 years 12 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2989 times:

According to this:

http://www.accuweather.com/mt-news-b...low_temp_records_set_this_july.asp

it is getting colder....



The best seat in a Plane is the Jumpseat.
User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (4 years 12 months 3 days ago) and read 2953 times:

Greetings from on and around liquid Finnish ice! Forest berry picking & mosquito feeding time was great as well!

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):
So, your requirements for an ice road are 5.5", but the best that could be done was about 4.5"? Is this road on a river, lake, or ocean?

These ice roads are private roads for timber trucks, and the idea is that they will carry on to the factory without reloading or unloading. Such ice roads afaik are almost exclusively built on lake ice in order to gain access to the timber on islands and possibly other inaccessible places. (Some public ice roads for lighter loads are built regularly on sweet and brekish water, conditions permitting.) Forested areas in the most of Finland are densely covered by small high-capacity roads, ice roads supplement the system in small part.

The reason why "only" 90 cm was achieved in this case was due to physics and the wall calendar. There's only so much water you can successfully pump on ice, time over temp, and taking into account the two months' building time, you may want to get going with the transportation while you still have your road.

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes).

I was unable to find a reference to 91 tons driving on a 100 cm iceroad in Alaska . The ice surely can't be that different to allow twice the Finnish max load, even when we take some load distribution into account?

Quoting Baroque (Reply 11):
Then there was project Habakkuk.

Interesting idea indeed, and one that seemed to be quickly ruined by prevaricating and over-engineering.


User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12128 posts, RR: 52
Reply 21, posted (4 years 12 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2921 times:



Quoting Pyrex (Reply 17):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 2):
the other is using an ice penetrating radar pulled behind a pick-up truck.

Wouldn't an ice radar pushed IN FRONT OF a pick-up truck be more... humm... safe?

Perhaps, but I have only scene it done towing a small trailer based ice radar behind the pick-up.

Quoting Baroque (Reply 18):
Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all.

Isn't that usually the case?

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 20):
Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 13):

In Canada and Alaska, ice thickness is usually required to be 1 meter (about 39")over fresh water, or about 1.1 m to 1.2 m (about 44") over salt water (salt water freezes about 28F or -3C). Of course the trucks could have a gross weight up to 200,000 lbs (about 90.9 tonnes).

I was unable to find a reference to 91 tons driving on a 100 cm iceroad in Alaska . The ice surely can't be that different to allow twice the Finnish max load, even when we take some load distribution into account?

An episode on the History Channel's "Ice Road Truckers" last year showed trucks removing a 103 ton (206,000 lbs) gas well drilling rig from the ocean ice near the end of the season, before the ice melted to thin. The main portion of the derrick drill rig was suspended on two trucks tractors (one on one end, pulling both trucks and the rig), the other truck tractor suspended the other end of the derrick, and provided additional steering. The total weight did not include the weight of the two trucks, one had 10 tires, the second had 12 tires (two steering axils).


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (4 years 12 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2913 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 18):
Actually I was partly stopped in my tracks partly by realising that while it is very common knowledge that an El Nino is building, someone forgot to tel the SOI about it all.

Isn't that usually the case?

You mean the normally forget, or +12 is normal for an El Nino?? You would expect -10 to -20 for an El Nino, which is where it was before it suddenly climbed. That should mean that the winds are getting stronger and will pile water up in the W Pac, which is not what is supposed to happen in an El Nino. Which I why I will not get excited until there is another couple of weeks of higher SOI values. +12 would normally come with a La Nina and colder weather in the US.

Quoting AverageUser (Reply 20):
Quoting Baroque (Reply 11):
Then there was project Habakkuk.

Interesting idea indeed, and one that seemed to be quickly ruined by prevaricating and over-engineering.

Wonder if anyone will propose a new Habakkuk to replace the summer ice if it all vanishes??!!!!


User currently offlineAverageUser From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (4 years 12 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2901 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 21):
An episode on the History Channel's "Ice Road Truckers" last year showed trucks removing a 103 ton (206,000 lbs) gas well drilling rig from the ocean ice near the end of the season,

I thought that the reference must have come from that reality show, but I think we don't know the thickness of the ice nor how the weight over area of the special transport translates into standard truckloads -- so ice physics would still remain the same everywhere in the arctic/subarctic zones!


User currently offlineBaroque From Australia, joined Apr 2006, 15380 posts, RR: 59
Reply 24, posted (4 years 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2733 times:

Looks as if the curve is following 2008 so far, but it also looks as if 2007, 2008 and 2009 will form a group below earlier years??? Or is my colour sight causing problems?

25 Post contains links Baroque : Another week and the melt seems to be not as much as 2007, but melting glaciers seems to be the news of the week with stories from the Antarctic and N
26 AverageUser : The wind conditions seem to have changed in the Arctic (see the NSIDC web site on the wind patterns), and the red and the green lines (2005) are no lo
27 Baroque : Yes, it has been interesting to follow the worm as it burrows its way down.
28 KC135TopBoom : Buty, haven't those glaciers been retreating for years? What I don't understand about the Greenland glaciers is the cafving along the coast line. Nei
29 Baroque : Yes, but not to that extent if you look at the maps, not that they were overly helpful with maps. At some stages I was not sure which end of the worl
30 Post contains links KC135TopBoom : Thank you. I should have known that. Correct, but generally icebergs that break off the Greenland glaciers usually go north along the greenland coast
31 Baroque : I did not think they went right about the N end but certainly it is the Labrador current wot causes the problems. Then again, in past times, the Arct
32 Post contains links AverageUser : I remembered this old clip: http://video.google.com/videoplay?docid=-3086339187597677869
33 Baroque : " target=_blank>http://video.google.com/videoplay?do...77869 Thanks, that is what I thought, most of the N Greenland ice shuffles off down the E coas
34 AirCatalonia : It doesn't look too bad now. Hopefully September won't be too harsh on the ice.
35 Baroque : Yep, just worse than most years. So that will be OK!!
36 Windy95 : Based on a thirty year average. Oh my
37 Windy95 : Here are a few recent peer reviewed studies and other articles debunking the great man made Artic melt Arctic Ice Changes in past 3 years due to 'shif
38 Baroque : You really are a caution! I know it says peer reviewed at the top of the page, but they are all clippings from newspaper articles and it appears none
39 Baroque : Oops, my mistake, they do seem to have a couple of extracts from peer reviewed journals, but I still get the feeling that the excerpts are from newspa
40 AirCatalonia : Looks like we passed the minimum already. A very early minimum, by the way.[Edited 2009-09-19 04:42:15]
41 AverageUser : No, 17 Sept is a quite ordinary date. The Arctic sea ice peaks and valleys take place in mid-March and mid-September, respectively.
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