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DOW Close To 10,000  
User currently offlineMt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6581 posts, RR: 6
Posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 2086 times:
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The all powerful, all knowing, perfectly rational economic indicator is close to 10,000 again. (9,962 @ 9:53 -20mins)

Should we get the Champagne out?


Step into my office, baby
44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12138 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 2076 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Thread starter):
Should we get the Champagne out?

Not yet.

The movement of the DOW, S&P 500, and NASDEC does not make any economic sense. I have stayed out of the markey for now, except for the few stocks I want to keep (BA, F). I have a feeling it will drop sharply in the next 1-2 years. There is no money really being traded and few are making money in stocks right now. To me it all seems to be just paper trading.


User currently offlineNIKV69 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2055 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Thread starter):
Should we get the Champagne out?

Much about nothing here. The market is a confidence indicator and it's not a secret that people are confident we have begin to climb out of the hole we were in. We do have a long way to go however and I don't think we will see a real boom until after the mid term elections. If we can get the Dems to stop pushing this terrible health care bill and spending and taxes down our throats and the GOP wins back some seats we will see confidence grow even more but right now everyone is cautious.


User currently offlineFlanker From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1635 posts, RR: 2
Reply 3, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2055 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Thread starter):
Should we get the Champagne out?

Nope. Wait till the wonderful inflation hits from the tons of wasted money in the last year.



Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant' is like calling a drug dealer an unlicensed pharmacist
User currently offlineMt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6581 posts, RR: 6
Reply 4, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2055 times:
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Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 1):
There is no money really being traded and few are making money in stocks right now. To me it all seems to be just paper trading.



Quoting Flanker (Reply 3):


Nope. Wait till the wonderful inflation hits from the tons of wasted money in the last year.

Well people hit the Champagne during 2006/2007 and it was well know that it was all a house of cards...

In fact, it is often quoted as one of Bush's successes

[Edited 2009-10-14 09:08:40 by mt99]


Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineFlanker From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1635 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2042 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Reply 4):


In fact, it is often quoted as one of Bush's successes

Bush is out of the picture so get over it already. Market confidence at present has to do with the current administration and plans of action.



Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant' is like calling a drug dealer an unlicensed pharmacist
User currently offlineMt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6581 posts, RR: 6
Reply 6, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2039 times:
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Quoting Flanker (Reply 5):
Market confidence at present has to do with the current administration and plans of action.

So I guess people have confidence in Obama - just as they did with Bush..



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21571 posts, RR: 55
Reply 7, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2031 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Thread starter):
Should we get the Champagne out?

No, but it is a sign that investor confidence is coming back, so it's reason to be cautiously optimistic.

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 6):
So I guess people have confidence in Obama - just as they did with Bush..

If that's the metric that's going to be used, sure.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineFuturePilot16 From United States of America, joined Mar 2007, 2035 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 2029 times:

YAYYYY OBAMA DOES IT AGAIN.


"The brave don't live forever, but the cautious don't live at all."
User currently offlineMt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6581 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 2029 times:
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Quoting Mir (Reply 7):
If that's the metric that's going to be used, sure.

My point is that that metric WAS used in 2006/2007. So its only fair to use it now.



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineNIKV69 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2006 times:



Quoting Mt99 (Reply 6):
So I guess people have confidence in Obama - just as they did with Bush..

Actually I think it is the opposite. Wall St does not like Obama and I think you are seeing confidence that the Dems will not be successful in turning us into Sweden. I think starting the NJ election next month in which a Republican is giving the Democrat a lot of trouble u may see it carry into the mid term stuff in 2010'.


User currently offlineCasInterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2005 times:

Well it crossed 10,000
for the Xth time since April 1999. Yep that's right. in April of 1999 it hit 10,000 for the first time.

It is a sign of confidence in certain markets creaping back in. Arguably the Stock Market will do much better as more and more folks abandon the dollar and home purchasing to go back into Domestic and Foreign investment in riskier assets.

The market may tred for awhile while job growth lags, but once there is a sign in the positive realm on jobs growth , the market will rocket.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineFr8Mech From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 5400 posts, RR: 14
Reply 12, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1987 times:

I don't know. Unemployment is still up. A lot of people are still hurting. Contrarian data keeps poping up in the darndest sectors.

I hope it's all over, but what happens when inflation begins to creep up and then spikes? We are spending money like we can print it without consequence.

Quoting FuturePilot16 (Reply 8):
YAYYYY OBAMA DOES IT AGAIN.

Did he give another speech? Did he win another award? Did he vote 'present' again?

Please.



When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
User currently offlineArmitageShanks From UK - England, joined Dec 2003, 3621 posts, RR: 15
Reply 13, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1979 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 1):
There is no money
really being traded and few are making money in stocks right now. To me it all seems to be just paper trading
.

That's ridiculous. My portfolio has increased this year, as it did last year.


User currently offlineFr8Mech From United States of America, joined Sep 2005, 5400 posts, RR: 14
Reply 14, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1946 times:



Quoting ArmitageShanks (Reply 13):
That's ridiculous. My portfolio has increased this year, as it did last year.

MIne has also increased/ I'm concerned that it's not sustainable. I'm slowly selling off what I have.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm thinking the Dow will see 7000 again within the next 18 months. The spending is unsustainable and, though the economy is expanding, the jobless rate is still up and government actions and intents are going to curtail further growth.



When seconds count...the police are minutes away.
User currently offlineCasInterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 15, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1931 times:



Quoting Fr8Mech (Reply 14):
MIne has also increased/ I'm concerned that it's not sustainable. I'm slowly selling off what I have.

I hope I'm wrong, but I'm thinking the Dow will see 7000 again within the next 18 months. The spending is unsustainable and, though the economy is expanding, the jobless rate is still up and government actions and intents are going to curtail further growth.

Nah, you are missing the point.

The Market is going to go up. The Dollar will tumble, but the market will still rise, even during inflation as jobs return to the US due to the Dollar's tumble.

The key to this will of course be the continued rise of the Euro/Yen/Pound, and hopefully the rise of the Yuan.

There will be some inflation, but at this point, I would argue deflation is much more dangerous.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12138 posts, RR: 51
Reply 16, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1923 times:

Quoting Flanker (Reply 3):
Nope. Wait till the wonderful inflation hits from the tons of wasted money in the last year.

Don't forget the truck loads of money Obama has printed this year.

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 4):
Well people hit the Champagne during 2006/2007 and it was well know that it was all a house of cards...

They did it in 1999, and that bubble (dot com) burst too. This market is all about the big government bailout money handed out this year.

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 6):
Quoting Flanker (Reply 5):
Market confidence at present has to do with the current administration and plans of action.

So I guess people have confidence in Obama - just as they did with Bush..

We should have learned in 2000 under Bush, but we didn't. We should have learned in 1999 under Clinton, but we didn't. Now we have a guy who not only doesn't understand the stock market, or money, or ever run anything, and you guys expect everything to be well?

Quoting FuturePilot16 (Reply 8):
YAYYYY OBAMA DOES IT AGAIN.

Obama has done nothing to move this stock market. I got out of it before loosing boat loads of money. Obama has only sold our's, our children's, and our grandchildren's future.

Quoting Mt99 (Reply 9):
Quoting Mir (Reply 7):
If that's the metric that's going to be used, sure.


My point is that that metric WAS used in 2006/2007. So its only fair to use it now.

I agree, we didn't learn anything in 2006, or 1999.

Quoting CasInterest (Reply 11):
Well it crossed 10,000
for the Xth time since April 1999. Yep that's right. in April of 1999 it hit 10,000 for the first time.

That is correct. As it turned out, it was meaningless in 1999, it was menaingless in 2002, it was meaningless in 2006, and it is meaningless now in 2009.

Quoting ArmitageShanks (Reply 13):
That's ridiculous. My portfolio has increased this year, as it did last year.

Congradualtions. Some people WILL make money in this stock market, more than 90% will LOOSE money.

Quoting Fr8Mech (Reply 14):
I hope I'm wrong, but I'm thinking the Dow will see 7000 again within the next 18 months. The spending is unsustainable and, though the economy is expanding, the jobless rate is still up and government actions and intents are going to curtail further growth.

I think you are right, but I see the dow below 5000 in 18-24 months. This spending is unsustainable, printing money is unsustainable, the jobless rate is still climbing in the US, and will not peak until very late 2010 or early 2011, in the 11%-12% range, just in time for the second shoe to drop on the economy.

This economy is like an airplane that entered a full stall when Bush was the pilot. Obama is now at the controls flying this airplane and all he has done is kick in full left rudder, and pushed the throttles into the firewall, putting our stall into a full out of control tail spin. All any of us can do now is crash and burn, because the "G" forces are to great to punch out.

That crash and burn coming to us will be out of control INFLATION, and it will be global.

[Edited 2009-10-14 13:59:30]

User currently offlineMt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6581 posts, RR: 6
Reply 17, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1908 times:
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Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
. Now we have a guy who not only doesn't understand the stock market, or money, or ever run anything, and you guys expect everything to be well?

Who understand the market? I agree with 80% of your post.. but the issue of whether a "rational market" really exists is an interesting one.

Do traders do? Do CEOs? Does Warren Buffet? Does Leaham Bros (RIP)?



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineCasInterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 18, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1902 times:

http://www.theglobeandmail.com/repor...in-global-fortunes/article1322552/

The above article explains why a weaker dollar is a good thing

Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
think you are right, but I see the dow below 5000 in 18-24 months. This spending is unsustainable, printing money is unsustainable, the jobless rate is still climbing in the US, and will not peak until very late 2010 or early 2011, in the 11%-12% range, just in time for the second shoe to drop on the economy.

I would argue the opposite. With a weaker dollar, jobs will return. More importantly, with a weaker dollar US exporters, and Internationally exposed Companies will record record profits.

It's time to get into the market. Inflation will not only raise the price of gas and food, but it will raise the baseline of the Market as well.

Sitting on the sideline will cost you dearly,especially if Inflation goes rampant.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineFlanker From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1635 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1887 times:



Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 16):
Don't forget the truck loads of money Obama has printed this year.

Oh i know, i was just referring from today, counting 1 year back. ^_^



Calling an illegal alien an 'undocumented immigrant' is like calling a drug dealer an unlicensed pharmacist
User currently offlineKC135TopBoom From United States of America, joined Jan 2005, 12138 posts, RR: 51
Reply 20, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1856 times:



Quoting CasInterest (Reply 18):
The above article explains why a weaker dollar is a good thing

I didn't want to sign up for another news service. What does it say?

There are advantages to a weak dollar, for US exports, vs, imports. However, there gets to be a point of demishing returns if the dollar is allowed to grow to weak. Printing excessive dollars is the worst thing you can do when you have a weak dollar as it devalues it faster, than it would if just allowed to compete against other moneies.

Right now, the US dollar is too weak, and other countries are talking about replacing it. You can blaim thios dorectly on a President who prints money, but will not shore up the dollar.

Quoting CasInterest (Reply 18):
I would argue the opposite. With a weaker dollar, jobs will return. More importantly, with a weaker dollar US exporters, and Internationally exposed Companies will record record profits.

It does, to a point. Beyond that, the advantages are lost.


User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1851 times:
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Quoting NIKV69 (Reply 10):
Wall St does not like Obama and I think you are seeing confidence that the Dems will not be successful in turning us into Sweden.

You might want to do a little research before slagging another country. Sweden's deficit is 2.2% of GDP this year. The US deficit is 12% of GDP. You might do well to emulate Sweden, at least in fiscal management.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineArrow From Canada, joined Jun 2002, 2676 posts, RR: 2
Reply 22, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1848 times:
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Quoting KC135TopBoom (Reply 20):
Right now, the US dollar is too weak, and other countries are talking about replacing it.

That's the elephant in the room. How long will the rest of the world (e.g. China) keep feeding an out-of-control giant in a spending frenzy? Right now, they keep buying because it's in their own interests to do so. But there will come a time when those lenders conclude that they are now throwing good money after bad. That's when the real s**t hits the fan.



Never let the facts get in the way of a good story.
User currently offlineTUNisia From United States of America, joined Aug 2004, 1844 posts, RR: 5
Reply 23, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1840 times:

By re-investing my trust account since late March I've done very well by investing in C (still have a large stake which I'm holding long), AXP, BAC, FFACX, and LVS.

Still it bothers me that blue collar jobs are disappearing left and right. We'll need skilled tradespeople in the near future if we are to truly succeed and not just become a nation of paper pushers.



Someday the sun will shine down on me in some faraway place - Mahalia Jackson
User currently offlinePyrex From Portugal, joined Aug 2005, 4008 posts, RR: 28
Reply 24, posted (4 years 10 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1829 times:



Quoting CasInterest (Reply 18):
Sitting on the sideline will cost you dearly,especially if Inflation goes rampant.

I heard the other day someone say that the amount of money lost in long-term bonds in the next two years because of rising inflation (increases in inflation and interest rates decrease the price of bonds) will dwarf any wealth destroyed during the housing crisis. I am not sure how accurate that is but even for those who think that the stock market is going to crash, long-term bonds aren't a great option.

There have been periods where the stock market in Zimbabwe has risen 18,000% in a week. The funny thing is, even in those weeks average investors lost money due to inflation (although less than they would have if they had just kept the money in cash).



Read this very carefully, I shall write this only once!
25 NIKV69 : Yea and the people that work in the trenches get half their pay taken from them with that great tax wedge you have. No thanks.
26 CasInterest : It isn't meaningless. It is an index that has been crossed before. Who knows, by next year we may be talking about dow 20,000 I didn't have to sign u
27 Arrow : Well, I've got news for you; you're going down this road whether you like it or not. The US has a massive debt that is projected to grow by a trillio
28 Seb146 : Amazing. Simply amazing. The markets inflate under one president and we all are supposed to cheer and go wild. The rebound under a different presiden
29 Aaron747 : As did mine - but I historically count on failures rather than successes. They're easy to find and make money on if you know where to look. That rema
30 KC135TopBoom : We can only partially learn from Sweden, the part of the deficit. BTW, the annual deficiet is actually a meaningless number. The real number is the n
31 NIKV69 : No sir we are not. If Obama continues along this path he will get trounced in 2012' and in 2010' the do nothing congress will be sent packing which i
32 CasInterest : There isn't enough gold. That was the problem in the first place. The US dollar has become the defacto Gold Standard for far too many countries. A lo
33 DocLightning : Really? You spoke to Wall St.? I've never met Wall St. Walked down it a whole bunch of times when I lived in NYC, but it's really just some pavement
34 Arrow : That's the problem: you're not free. You've put yourselves in hock up to your eyeballs and in doing so turned control of your economic future over to
35 CasInterest : Ahh but when the dollar sinks "too" low, then the US worker will probably have an inflow of dollars to work with, which will make the US Government S
36 Mt99 : How old is the Euro? 10 years?
37 NIKV69 : Who can provide that market beside us? Stop the propaganda, China needs us much more than you care to admit. More scare mongering? Come on, it will t
38 CasInterest : Something like that, but the underlying coalition of countries have more stability and sound political actions than anything other than the dollar.
39 Post contains links and images Aaron747 : Fundamentally wrong. The worst mistake possible to make now is overestimating Chinese need for a US market. Domestic demand is keeping their economy
40 Seb146 : I am not asking this to you, specifically, Aaron, but to anyone studied in Reaganomics: Isn't that the whole point of his administrations "trickle do
41 Geekydude : Agreed. Also another bad mistake is to fall for the media fear-mongering and overestimate the effect China could have in the unlikely event of "calli
42 Aaron747 : 7% is more than enough, however, for a so-called run on the dollar. Though in practical terms, such action would be more akin to "calling the dollar"
43 Geekydude : 7% is a stoke of the pen by the Fed if they want to. But losing that 7% for the sake of putting on a run on the dollar would mean China losing years
44 CasInterest : That is the theory of "trickle down" . However in this age of Free Trade: Offshoring and Outsourcing. The investment may go overseas prior to returni
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