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Falkands Oil Discovery Is, In Fact, Mostly Water.  
User currently offlineoly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6696 posts, RR: 11
Posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2510 times:

The Times yesterday had it as 70% water not 70% oil in the samples. They seem to be the unfortunate victims of gossip getting out of hand and having to release information/speculation before it was definite. It says this company has been trying to find oil for 12 years with not a whole lot of success.

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/finance/n...ds-oil-find-is-actually-water.html

But someone always finds a silver lining....

Lionel Therond, an analyst at FD Capital, maintained that despite the "obviously disastrous blow to the stock" the "over reaction today offers a buying opportunity".

Presumably to sell again just before the next fall off the cliff.


wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
9 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39825 posts, RR: 74
Reply 1, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2496 times:

Quoting oly720man (Thread starter):
It says this company has been trying to find oil for 12 years with not a whole lot of success.

Is this company being ran by George W. Bush?



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinenighthawk From UK - Scotland, joined Sep 2001, 5134 posts, RR: 33
Reply 2, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2392 times:

To clarify, the article is referring to Desire, who on Friday last week announced they had found oil, only to announce yesterday that what they had found, was infact water.

Rockhopper discovered oil in the summer, and later confirmed the discovery was potentially commercial. Their discovery is unaffected by this.

Quoting oly720man (Thread starter):
It says this company has been trying to find oil for 12 years with not a whole lot of success.

I believe a lot of this time was spent aquiring licenses, surveying the area, then waiting to get a drill rig down there, which only happened this summer. Its not like theyve been drilling for 12 years without finding anything!

Regardless, the way Desire have handled this has been shambolic. They quite clearly stated they had found oil, and also said this confirmed that there was oil in the entire basin, causing a small jump in their share price as many investors bought in waiting for future successes elsewhere. 2 days later they announced it was water, causing the share price to plummet. A lot of people have lost a lot of money due to this, the directors deserve to be charged with fraud.



That'll teach you
User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2999 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2356 times:

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 2):
Regardless, the way Desire have handled this has been shambolic. They quite clearly stated they had found oil, and also said this confirmed that there was oil in the entire basin


Finding oil and finding producible type and quantities of oil are two separate analogies.
Appearance from the news release that the whole driver of the stock price was being hyped by the inter-net and not by the oil company. Sounds like sour grapes from the investors that bought on the inter-net hype instead of an informed decision.


Okie


User currently offlineoly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6696 posts, RR: 11
Reply 4, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 6 hours ago) and read 2327 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 3):
Appearance from the news release that the whole driver of the stock price was being hyped by the inter-net and not by the oil company.

Isn't gossip how a lot of the stock market bounces around? Waiting for official confirmation could mean missing the boat and paying a higher price given the almost instantaneous response of the automated trading systems.

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 2):
A lot of people have lost a lot of money due to this, the directors deserve to be charged with fraud.

Would that be hard to prove? It's a fuzzy line between making a mistake and being deliberately misleading especially when they were forced into the position of releasing some sort of statement. And these days people will read between the lines so what could they say without starting another wave of speculation? They hoped there was oil, and initial indications showed something.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineCO777ER From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2294 times:

Sounds like they need to find a new well log analyst.

User currently offlineprebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6419 posts, RR: 54
Reply 6, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 2 days ago) and read 2247 times:

Huh, this thread made me laugh.

If you invest in a company which has resources to drill only a dozen holes or less, then you are investing money in a wild gamble. And you invest money which you only have for fun, or you are crazy.

If you only knew how many "empty" holes are drilled every year....

If you want to invest in oil, and your money is not just for fun, then invest in companies which drill holes by the thousands - Exxon, Shell, BP and such.

Apart from that, finding water can be a very ecouraging. Many of the world's best oil wells have been found that way.

When water is present, then it proves that there is a liquid sealing layer of rocks of sediments on top. Otherwise the water would have seeped upwards to the sea bottom. If oil is present, then it will float on top of the water. If the layers are not totally horizontally oriented, then there may be plenty of oil slightly closer to the surface only one or two miles away. Further seismic surveys will be used to guide you in the correct direction.

The Telegraph article is mainly about investment. If you invest in specialized industries, then the number one rule is to know something about that industry. And if you then go and invest in oil business, then clearly it is waste of time to read The Telegraph. At least until they get some better journalists.



Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
User currently offlinenighthawk From UK - Scotland, joined Sep 2001, 5134 posts, RR: 33
Reply 7, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2170 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 3):
Finding oil and finding producible type and quantities of oil are two separate analogies.

Yes, they are two different things. And finding water is something different yet again.

For reference, the original release is below:

Quote:

Drilling Update

Rachel North Exploration Well 14/15-2

Oil Discovery



Desire Petroleum plc (AIM:DES) the oil and gas company wholly focussed on the North Falkland Basin, wishes to advise that the 14/15-2 Rachel North well has reached a total depth of 3052 metres.



Preliminary data collected indicate that this well is an oil discovery. The company has run an initial suite of wireline logs and this together with the drilling data indicate that the well encountered a 349 metres gross interval from 2621 metres to 2970 metres of sands and shales with hydrocarbons ,of which 57 metres is net pay in multiple zones. The thickest zone is 8 metres thick with an average porosity of 20% . Other zones are thinly bedded and lower porosity but require further analysis from additional wireline logs to establish reservoir potential.


Desire now intends to complete the wireline logging and wireline sampling programme to obtain more information on the reservoir quality, the hydrocarbon saturations and the fluid type to assess the significance of this discovery. Further information will be released in due course.

Commenting on the well, Stephen Phipps Chairman of Desire said, "It is highly encouraging that the initial results from the Rachel North well endorse both our findings and geological model from the previously drilled Rachel sidetrack well. This discovery combined with Rockhoppers' Sea Lion discovery confirms our belief that the eastern flank play fairway in the North Falkland Basin is highly prospective and that further oil fields will be discovered in this area".

Subsurface support is provided to Desire Petroleum by Senergy (GB) Ltd and the results reported today are based on the work of the Senergy operations team.

This statement has been approved by Dr Ian Duncan of Desire Petroleum plc, who is a Fellow of the Geological Society, Chartered Geologist, and a member of the American Association of Petroleum Geologists with over 35 years experience in petroleum exploration and management.

Emphasis mine, showing they quite clearly stated they had found oil.



That'll teach you
User currently offlineoly720man From United Kingdom, joined May 2004, 6696 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2130 times:

Quoting nighthawk (Reply 7):

I've now done the beginner's course on wireline logging

http://oilandgastraining.org/data/gl31/G1922.asp?Code=1948

and I'm now marginally wiser. If oil explorers can get it wrong, then how reliable is the data (or are the analysts)? Or how well does the data correlate with what's actually down there? It does seem, as in the reference here (you have to pay to get it, but the summary's indicative)

(apologies for shredding the link, but the site won't show it and messes up what follows.... is there a way to show links???)

www dot onepetro dot org/mslib/servlet/onepetropreview?id=00029653&soc=SPE

There is a long-held paradigm in the California oil industry that wireline log evaluation does not "work" in Monterey Formation lithologies. This study demonstrates that it is possible to calculate accurate oil saturation from wireline log data in the diatomite reservoir at Lost Hills field, California. The ability to calculate simple but accurate oil saturation is important because it allows field management teams to map pay, plan development and waterflood programs, and make estimates of reserves more accurate than those based on core information alone.

it can, perhaps, be difficult to interpret such logs in some places.

If, as said above, more wireline logs are to be done, would this be down the same hole?


Incidentally, the speculators' take on it

http://www.iii.co.uk/investment/deta...n:DES.L&threshold=0&pageno=1&it=le

There do seem to be some people who just ride the roller coaster hoping to cash in at the top. No surprise really.



wheat and dairy can screw up your brain
User currently offlineCO777ER From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 691 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 8 months 2 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 2033 times:

With logs you run into problems with: fluid invasion, mud filtrate, mud cake, radial depth of investigation etc.

Logs can be mis-interpreted with regard to: porosities, permiabilities, fluid saturation, fluid in place, residual saturation, lithology etc.



The list for both could go on much longer.


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