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Libya Today ... Syria Tomorrow?  
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12411 posts, RR: 37
Posted (3 years 4 months 1 week 21 hours ago) and read 1449 times:

The BBC is reporting that there are increasingly strong protests in Syria, being met by increasingly desperate and brutal attempts by the Assad regime to put them down. Protests have reached Damascus.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12858972

OK, there are notable differences between Syria and Libya, i.e. that there is no rebel group as such, but I can't help wondering if the Libyan situation may have created a precedent. If the protests in Syria gathered strength and the Syrian authorities continued in their brutal put down, will a point be reached when the Syrians will say to NATO, "why are you protecting rebels in Libya and you won't do the same for us?". Might one say that the attacks on Libya are giving hope and/or encouragement to protesters in Syria?, i.e. "if we build a sufficient head of steam and turn this into a nationwide rising, we could get NATO to intervene?"

I think the scale is hugely different; Syria has a much larger population and much larger military. And of course, since the protests are dotted around so many different cities, it would be impossible to say, "let's strike here". Of course, it could be different tomorrow.

There's little doubt that many govts in the M/E would not be sad to see the back of the Syrian regime (not least its southern neighbours!). If the Assad regime were to fall, it would have a major effect on the region's politics - isolating Iran and cutting off a source of supply to Hezbollah and other organisations; the ability of Hezbollah to take over Lebanon (which they seem now to be doing) would be greatly undermined.

I think most NATO countries would be horrified at the prospect of doing the same in Syria as is being done in Libya, but that doesn't mean that circumstances might force their hands and furthermore, that there may be regional powers who would be lobbying them - secretly, but strongly - to take action.

12 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently onlinemham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3574 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (3 years 4 months 1 week 20 hours ago) and read 1423 times:

Certainly highlights the slippery slope some governments have created for themselves. Unfortunately for the Syrians, they have no oil.

IMO, the only country worth intervening in the region would be Iran, if the situation allowed it.


User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (3 years 4 months 1 week 13 hours ago) and read 1376 times:

Invasion of Syria by Western forces is amongst one of the signs of the end times, according to Islamic teachings, we are living interesting times.

[Edited 2011-03-25 23:30:37]

User currently offlineBA6590 From UK - England, joined Jul 2007, 132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (3 years 4 months 1 week 6 hours ago) and read 1313 times:

The Syrian parliment are now announcing several wage rises, and a shuffling of the government ministers.
It looks like the Syrian regime is starting to worry.
I personally think this will turn into a very bloody civil war if the protests continue.

Quoting 777way (Reply 2):
Invasion of Syria by Western forces is amongst one of the signs of the end times, according to Islamic teachings, we are living interesting times.

Well it has been invaded quite a few times before.....Clocks are still ticking.



"Never forget, the higher we soar, the smaller we appear to those who cannot fly" - Nietzsche -
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6534 posts, RR: 9
Reply 4, posted (3 years 4 months 1 week 5 hours ago) and read 1303 times:

Sarkozy said something along the lines of "what is happening in Libya is an example for other countries of what happens when you don't respect your people", so I'm wondering like you if he meant we will now be righting wrongs everywhere. The Germans were horrified, hearing this, and are probably mounting a special force operation to remove Sarkozy (just kidding ).


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineDEVILFISH From Philippines, joined Jan 2006, 4781 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (3 years 4 months 1 week ago) and read 1264 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 4):
The Germans were horrified, hearing this, and are probably mounting a special force operation to remove Sarkozy

According to rumors, the operation would be spearheaded by this top secret, deep penetration aircraft.....  Smile
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Photo © Frank Steinkohl


Fighter escort and strike package would be comprised of these.....

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Photo © Toon Cox
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Photo © Michael Balter


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Photo © Daniele Faccioli
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Photo © Gerhard Plomitzer


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Photo © Andreas Zeitler - Flying-Wings
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Photo © Helwin Scharn


And this would be the extraction platform to spirit him out of the country.....  
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Photo © Andre Oferta
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Photo © Gerhard Plomitzer


Heightened security and secrecy surround the mission.      

[Edited 2011-03-26 12:18:22]


"Everyone is entitled to my opinion." - Garfield
User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1232 times:

Quoting BA6590 (Reply 3):
Quoting 777way (Reply 2):
Invasion of Syria by Western forces is amongst one of the signs of the end times, according to Islamic teachings, we are living interesting times.

Well it has been invaded quite a few times before.....Clocks are still ticking.

This will be different.


User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8060 posts, RR: 54
Reply 7, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 23 hours ago) and read 1223 times:

I'm surprised it's taken this long. Have never been to Libya so a comparison is difficult but Syria, which I have visited a number of times, is a hideous police state where nothing works, there are no jobs, crumbling sagging buildings of concrete and load-bearing dust, litter and rubbish everywhere, long-abandoned construction sites everywhere, a corpse of a country. There's no sense of culture, initiative, anything - the life has been squeezed out of it by Assad, father and son. On top of that, you have spooky dudes with bad intentions spying on everyone, literally in shiny suits with bulging armpits (concealed holster) who were all trained by the Stazi. It's one of the worst countries in the world, of the 50-odd countries I've been to, it was the second-worst after DPRK, which is saying something.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
the ability of Hezbollah to take over Lebanon (which they seem now to be doing) would be greatly undermined.

Oh no you don't. Hezbollah are an indelible part of the make-up of Lebanon, representing the interests of the Shia primarily. Do you honestly think the Christians or the Sunnis would allow Hezbollah more than their rightful share of power, any more than Hezbollah would allow Christian parties or Sunni parties more than theirs? What do you think the Lebanese civil war was fought for? The idea that this Lebanese political party-slash-humanitarian organisation-slash-paramilitary outfit are a threat to anyone other than Israel's dreams of northbound expansion-slash-aggression is laughable. I might add, Hezbollah's defence of Lebanon has earned it huge respect throughout the region and if the Assad regime falls (please please please), if the gov't that takes it's place follows the will of the people, there will be plenty of support for Hezbollah, you can be totally sure of that.

Quoting BA6590 (Reply 3):
I personally think this will turn into a very bloody civil war if the protests continue

You need two sides for a civil war. I would love to meet a supporter of Assad and hear their argument in favour of this tyrant. Then again Gaddafi seems to have supporters too, which blows my mind. Who would fight for a crazy Liberace tribute act?



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 8, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 22 hours ago) and read 1195 times:

Assad a tyrant? I thought he was a dentist who wanted nothing of all this and was forced into it after his brother passed away, in a way its better as it would have been sad to see uber handsome Basel go through all this, he would have been the most good looking ruler in the world though, God spared him.

[Edited 2011-03-26 14:42:15]

User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12411 posts, RR: 37
Reply 9, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

Quoting 777way (Reply 8):
I thought he was a dentist who wanted nothing of all this

Close; he is actually an eye doctor (well, close in the sense that eyes are close to teeth!)

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 7):
Have never been to Libya so a comparison is difficult but Syria, which I have visited a number of times, is a hideous police state where nothing works, there are no jobs, crumbling sagging buildings of concrete and load-bearing dust, litter and rubbish everywhere, long-abandoned construction sites everywhere, a corpse of a country. There's no sense of culture, initiative, anything - the life has been squeezed out of it by Assad, father and son. On top of that, you have spooky dudes with bad intentions spying on everyone, literally in shiny suits with bulging armpits (concealed holster) who were all trained by the Stazi. It's one of the worst countries in the world, of the 50-odd countries I've been to, it was the second-worst after DPRK, which is saying something.

You paint a lovely picture!

I take your point about Lebanon; you obviously know more about the place than I do, but it would appear that much of their support comes from Syria, and that much of their weaponry comes from Iran via Syria; therefore, it seems reasonable to suggest that they would lose a useful and powerful ally if Assad's regime is overpowered.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 7):
You need two sides for a civil war. I would love to meet a supporter of Assad and hear their argument in favour of this tyrant

Well, he still has a strong secret police force.

I think we both agree that Syria (and indeed the M/E generally) would be a better place if the Syrian regime were overthrown!


User currently offlineBA6590 From UK - England, joined Jul 2007, 132 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 1167 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 7):
You need two sides for a civil war. I would love to meet a supporter of Assad and hear their argument in favour of this tyrant.

There are a lot of people in Syria who owe a lot to the Assad regime. You describe Syria as a run down dump, which i personally think is unfair. Yet despite the poor economy there is a relatively large group of people who lead a very wealthy life thanks to the regime.
The other issue is that religious divisions are starting to show up. The Sunni population as it seems is no longer willing to stand by and watch the tyranny of the alawite lead government. I believe they will fight very hard before giving up power.
Libya is a great example, you have an oppressive regime which is now at war with the "rebels". I personally class it as a civil war, please feel free to correct me if it isn't.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 9):
I think we both agree that Syria (and indeed the M/E generally) would be a better place if the Syrian regime were overthrown!

I really hope you are right. However I am starting to worry about what will happen when the regime falls. I no longer live in Syria, but a lot of my family do. As much as I hate the current regime, as a member of a religious minority I can only worry about what might happen to us when it all falls apart.

Quoting 777way (Reply 6):
This will be different.

In what way?



"Never forget, the higher we soar, the smaller we appear to those who cannot fly" - Nietzsche -
User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1142 times:

Because from Syria they will to head onto Saudi Arabia for some reason.

User currently offlineTheCol From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 2038 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (3 years 4 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1127 times:

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
"if we build a sufficient head of steam and turn this into a nationwide rising, we could get NATO to intervene?"


Not going to happen. I think you all are forgetting that Iran has a war pact with Syria. They'll want to keep their puppet regime around. If we are going to hold Syria to account, then we better be prepared to go all the way.

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 7):
Hezbollah are an indelible part of the make-up of Lebanon, representing the interests of the Shia primarily.
Quoting cedarjet (Reply 7):
I might add, Hezbollah's defence of Lebanon has earned it huge respect throughout the region and if the Assad regime falls (please please please), if the gov't that takes it's place follows the will of the people, there will be plenty of support for Hezbollah, you can be totally sure of that.


So in other words, Iran will be calling the shots either way. The people won't have much choice in the matter.



No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
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