globalflyer From United States of America, joined Dec 2005, 980 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (3 years 9 months 1 week 2 days 1 hour ago) and read 1153 times:
Not making excuses for the Braves but I was at the game and it was one of the worst for missed calls by the umpires. That said they did indeed blow it and if they had advanced, I doubt that they will have done anything in the NLCS. Braves have got to get their act together. They are paying way to much for certain players that are no good. The rookies (Freeman, Beachy, Minor, etc) are what got them to where they were and were brilliant. Time to clean house from top to bottom. Start paying those guys and stop paying the worthless!
Landing on every Continent almost on an annual basis!
Quote: 1. The Red Sox had just a 0.3 percent chance of failing to make the playoffs on Sept. 3.
2. The Rays had just a 0.3 percent chance of coming back after trailing 7-0 with two innings to play.
3. The Rays had about a 2 percent chance of winning in the bottom of the 9th, with Johnson also down to his last strike.
4. The Red Sox had only about a 2 percent chance of losing their game against Baltimore, when the Orioles were down to their last strike.
The math is a little off because the Rays did not in fact win in the 9th inning, they simply tied, so the figure the author states that what happened to the Rays yesterday had 278,000,000:1 odds is a bit off. Assuming event 2 indicates the chance of the Rays TYING, let's say the probability of TYING with 2 outs and 2 strikes (event 3) was... a solid 6 percent. You get-
...which is about 92,600,000:1 odds of what happened last night happening exactly in the sequence it did.
Keep in mind of course, this is not the odds that the Rays would make the playoffs or that the Sox would miss the playoffs. That number represents the odds that the Rays would tie and eventually win the game in the exact manner they did while the Sox lost both their game and miss the playoffs in the exact manner they did.
Yesterday was wild, and as you can see, a scenario that played out like last night will likely NEVER happen again. That to me is the craziest thing about last night.