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Taiwanese Independence  
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2236 posts, RR: 0
Posted (3 years 1 month 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 1950 times:

I have been doing a bit of reading on the topic lately, and just have one question. All answers are appreciated, and I understand it's a touchy and multifaceted topic.

Why didn't the Taiwanese simply declare independence decades ago? Especially during the late 1960's and early 1970's when it was becoming apparent that the PRC wasn't going anywhere, but they were distracted with the political turmoil of the cultural revolution.

26 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineSebb89 From Germany, joined Mar 2010, 9 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1877 times:

I'd say it was not the right time, they were not that strong enough. Nonetheless they are independant, but PRC does of course not accept that nor many others countries because they fear of sanctions from China...thats what I read very often.

User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2170 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1857 times:

No, the reason was the governing party of Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT), never wanted to give up claims of their rightful rule over all of China. Declaring independence would have been saying, alright, we'll cede China to the Communist Party and we'll be happy with our tiny island here from now on. While today, obviously nobody in their right mind in Taiwan dreams of taking over China again, in the 1960s and 1970s they were still far from this realization.

Now that Taiwan is democratic, there are other parties which are not as strictly against independence as the KMT is. Ironically, that makes the (formerly demonized) KMT the only party that Beijing would even remotely consider talking to, and that makes them much closer to their old arch enemy, the Communists. It's funny if you think about it.



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12600 posts, RR: 34
Reply 3, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1809 times:

I don't see it ever happening; no other country in Asia wants it to happen; Taiwan is de facto independent. Everyone recognises it as such, but just don't state it openly; discretion is the best part of valour. Let sleeping dogs lie - and I'm sure I can fit a few more cliches in there somewhere.

The thing that gets me is the history of Taiwan under Chinese control, i.e. the historical basis to China's claim over Taiwan. Looking back over the history of Taiwan, it doesn't look like it was under the control of mainland China for a very long time.


User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8776 posts, RR: 3
Reply 4, posted (3 years 1 month 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1807 times:

It's terribly sad, Taiwan as a state has earned any status they might wish for. The idea that CCP has clear jurisdiction over Taiwan, a principality of Japan prior to WWII, is preposterous. Taiwan was also possessed by the Dutch for hundreds of years. China has a strong sociological influence on Taiwan but it has no unambiguous political claim to it. A similar claim might be, the USA owns the Bahamas, or Belize. These are interesting, but false, claims. But the US is powerful enough to claim that. As is China; eventually absolute power writes the history books. China has taken a very unfortunate attitude about this totally theoretical Taiwan issue. I say totally theoretical because Taiwan has never been ruled by CCP and it's been over a century since anybody on the Chinese mainland ruled Taiwan, officially.

To address the question in the thread, yes, Taiwan could have declared independence in the past. The status quo is very strange and costly to the brave Taiwan people. Ultimately it is a question of democracy and success vs. crony Communism. Taiwan is a real center of innovation, management expertise, high tech R&D. These are things capitalism and democracy do well, and China does relatively poorly. So, ironically, China looks to Taiwan at these jewels and wants them, and will pervert any line of reasoning or rhetoric to get them.


User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (3 years 1 month 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 1716 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
No, the reason was the governing party of Taiwan, the Kuomintang (KMT), never wanted to give up claims of their rightful rule over all of China.

  

Quoting Rara (Reply 2):
there are other parties which are not as strictly against independence as the KMT is

In fact, independence is the principal political objective of Taiwan's main opposition party, the Democratic Progressive Party.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 3):
Looking back over the history of Taiwan, it doesn't look like it was under the control of mainland China for a very long time.

1683 to 1895, and 1945-1949, 216 years is not exactly short. The rulers of Taiwan from 1662 to 1683 also came from the Mainland, albeit as a rebelling force.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
The idea that CCP has clear jurisdiction over Taiwan, a principality of Japan prior to WWII, is preposterous.

I think the argument is Taiwan is part of China. Whether one chooses to accept CCP or the Nationalist party of Taiwan as legitimate representative of China is of course debatable.
Taiwan was annexed by Japan in 1895 following defeat of Qing imperial navy. It is disingenuous to ignore the 212 years rule by the Qing empire prior to this event. It is equally ignorant to disregard the Cairo Declaration which clearly stated sovereignty ought to be returned to the then government of China.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
China has a strong sociological influence on Taiwan but it has no unambiguous political claim to it

It is only ambiguous to those who choose to ignore the above stated historical evidence.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
I say totally theoretical because Taiwan has never been ruled by CCP and it's been over a century since anybody on the Chinese mainland ruled Taiwan, officially.

Really? Who governed Taiwan from 1945 to 1949? Surely not two of the most senior military officers of the Chinese Nationalist government, the then government of Mainland China and Taiwan? Where did the people who controlled Taiwan after 1949 come from? Hawaii?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Taiwan_after_World_War_II

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
Taiwan could have declared independence in the past

It is in nobody's interest that Taiwan declares independence. The previous president of Taiwan was making quite a bit of noise about independence. He was quickly slapped down by none other than the government of your country. It was well known President GWB had a few choice words to say about him.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
The status quo is very strange and costly to the brave Taiwan people

Quite the contrary, successive surveys clearly established that the status quo was preferred by a plurality if not majority of the Taiwanese people.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
Ultimately it is a question of democracy and success vs. crony Communism.

Sure, everything is black and white, democracy versus commies. Never mind the fact that Taiwan is heavily and increasingly dependent economically on the Mainland, with it becoming the biggest trading partner amidst ever-expanding economy interactions. Never mind the fact that most of the residents of Taiwan and China are of the same ethnicity, separated by purely political reasons. Never mind the great similarity between the culture of the two regions. Never mind the fact that no matter which party controls the Mainland it has a snow ball in hell's chance of letting Taiwan declare independence as doing so would be highly humiliating and totally unacceptable to a crushing majority of the Mainland people, not least the educated middle-class with an increasing sense of national pride.


User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (3 years 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 1487 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 5):

     

Quoting kaitak (Reply 3):
The thing that gets me is the history of Taiwan under Chinese control, i.e. the historical basis to China's claim over Taiwan. Looking back over the history of Taiwan, it doesn't look like it was under the control of mainland China for a very long time.

Well if you only recognize history starting in the 1500/1600's. It's funny Taiwan just magically became a part of history to the 'international community' since the Dutch landed there.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 4):
Taiwan has never been ruled by CCP and it's been over a century since anybody on the Chinese mainland ruled Taiwan, officially.

Propaganda has worked on you good. Hate to stereotype here but this is typical of Taiwan Propaganda. Before 1921, nothing in China was ruled by CCP, and that does not mean China did not include Taiwan, or Guangdong, or Beijing for that matter.


User currently offlinefoppishbum From Taiwan, joined Mar 2006, 863 posts, RR: 0
Reply 7, posted (3 years 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1409 times:

I want to make my position clear: I am pro Taiwanese independence. I do not support either political party but I do wish to see Taiwanese independence in my life time. Many will say my views are biased but I was born and raised in Taiwan: this is my perspective and this is my country we're talking about. I do not wish to have a debate of whether Taiwan should be independent or not. I am simply stating my view as a Taiwanese whose family has been living on the island since The Dutch colonized Taiwan.

Us “Taiwanese”, welcomed the “Mainlanders” because we were previously ruled by the Japanese people and were happy that we would be ruled by “our” people - the Han Chinese (primary ethnicity of Chinese/Taiwanese people) - again. My grandmother went to welcome KMT’s troops with a group of young Taiwanese.

As time goes on, we started to feel the discrimination and prejudice against us by the Mainlanders. Most, if not all, high offices in the government were taken over by Mainlanders. KMT issued laws FORBIDDING Taiwanese people to speak our own dialect - Taiwanese, Hakka, and some aboriginal languages. All Taiwanese were forced to learn and speak Mandarin Chinese so that the Mainlanders could understand what Taiwanese people were saying. If such thing happens today, human rights groups would have made a big deal out of it.

Then, the White Terror started on February 28, 1947. Thousands of people, especially Taiwanese intellectuals, were taken away, murdered, or imprisoned. Many members of the DPP were imprisoned by the KMT during the White Terror period including the former President Chen Shui-bian. During the White Terror period, they targeted the Taiwanese intellectuals because they're afraid the intellectuals would cause an uprising. If anyone is interested about the “228 Massacre”, I strongly suggest the film, Formosa Betrayed (available on Netflix "Instant Watch", directed by an American Taiwanese. The film, albeit dramatized, depict several well-known Taiwanese intellectuals’ demises. Martial Law was declared from 1948 to 1987. The KMT government declared Martial Law to surpress movements of Taiwanese Independence. Taiwanese people have been suppressed by the Mainlanders for many years but many would argue differently.

This is a very touchy topic indeed. I don’t even discuss this with some of my friends because some of my friends are Mainlanders and have a completely different perspective on this issue. I would like to see Taiwanese Independence in my life time; independence from China and independence from the old KMT.

NOW, here is a question I get asked quite frequently:

Q: Majority of Taiwanese has ancestors from mainland China so why so bent on calling yourself Taiwanese and NOT Chinese? Your not indigenous to Taiwan...your Chinese.

My question as an answer: Majority of Americans, Australians, New Zealanders have ancestors from Britain, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, Finland, etc. Why insisting on calling yourself Americans, Australians, and/or New Zealanders?



I'm a Taiwanese-American living in NYC and LA.
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14140 posts, RR: 62
Reply 8, posted (3 years 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1378 times:

Quoting foppishbum (Reply 7):
My question as an answer: Majority of Americans, Australians, New Zealanders have ancestors from Britain, Germany, Italy, France, Sweden, Finland, etc. Why insisting on calling yourself Americans, Australians, and/or New Zealanders?

My fiancee´s family originally emigrated from southern China to the Philippines during the early 20th century. Ethnically she is Chinese (and, due to her looks, many people, also Chinese, think she comes from China), but with her family having lived in the Philippines for several generations now, she considers herself to be a Filipina.

Jan


User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 22 hours ago) and read 1315 times:

Quoting foppishbum (Reply 7):

Just want to say that I understand and respect your position. I am also impressed that you recognised your opinion is not shared by some of the other residents of Taiwan. Let's hope that time heals old wounds and that Taiwan prospers as she enjoys long-lasting peace.


User currently offlineyyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16371 posts, RR: 56
Reply 10, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1272 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 3):
I don't see it ever happening; no other country in Asia wants it to happen; Taiwan is de facto independent. Everyone recognises it as such, but just don't state it openly; discretion is the best part of valour. Let sleeping dogs lie - and I'm sure I can fit a few more cliches in there somewhere.

Given that Taiwan is de factor independent is true, but not enough. Taiwan and the Taiwanese deserve all the rights and priveleges of other countries.....they should become fully independent. The problem is that to declare independence was almost certainly evoke a military response from China, and each year China keeps getting stronger and stronger.

There were really only 2 windows for Taiwan to declare independence, and both are now gone:
1. In the 60's/70's when China was weak. But, as said, the KMT did not want independence...they still saw themselves as the legit rulers of all China,
2. In 2006-2008 or within the year or so before the Beijing Olympics....this was the most important cultural event to China in decades and an attack on Taiwan prior to the Olympics would have ruined the 2008 games and China's image as a result. China I think would have growled strongly but not invaded Taiwan prior to the Olympics, allowing Taiwan time to establish its diplomatic independence.

There are likely no more windows for a peaceful independence of Taiwan. In addtional to China getting militarily stronger each year, the Taiwanese economy continues to expand trade links with China which will increase its dependence on a benign China......keeping it benign will mean not pushing independence.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5620 posts, RR: 51
Reply 11, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1267 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 5):
Sure, everything is black and white, democracy versus commies. Never mind the fact that Taiwan is heavily and increasingly dependent economically on the Mainland, with it becoming the biggest trading partner amidst ever-expanding economy interactions. Never mind the fact that most of the residents of Taiwan and China are of the same ethnicity, separated by purely political reasons. Never mind the great similarity between the culture of the two regions. Never mind the fact that no matter which party controls the Mainland it has a snow ball in hell's chance of letting Taiwan declare independence as doing so would be highly humiliating and totally unacceptable to a crushing majority of the Mainland people, not least the educated middle-class with an increasing sense of national pride.

Nicely stated and perfect summation of why the current stand off is where it is now.

Quoting foppishbum (Reply 7):
Then, the White Terror started on February 28, 1947. Thousands of people, especially Taiwanese intellectuals, were taken away, murdered, or imprisoned. Many members of the DPP were imprisoned by the KMT during the White Terror period including the former President Chen Shui-bian. During the White Terror period, they targeted the Taiwanese intellectuals because they're afraid the intellectuals would cause an uprising. If anyone is interested about the “228 Massacre”, I strongly suggest the film, Formosa Betrayed (

Brilliant film! And a brave film to finally address what many in Taiwan dared not speak of for decades - and still most likely banned in Taiwan today.


Someone reading up on the Taiwan/China situation is bound to miss out on many many pieces of the puzzle and never get a complete picture of what really has occurred.

But in the benefit of hindsight, the best moment for Taiwan to have made a run for it was during one of the many major political rifts within Beijing itself. During various periods between the mid 70's til 1989, Back when the gang of four were being taken down up til during the decline of Deng Xiaoping - but the best window of opportunity was smack in the middle of the e Tiananmen Square debacle.

Why do I say that?

Because political power (in China) during these moments were in complete disarray. it was nowhere near as consolidated as it is now. The US 7th Fleet (and entire US military) which had stood between the two up until the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing (and beyond) would have been much more effective as a deterrent. The US was not involved in any major conflict at the time - but highly focused on bringing down the (already crumbling) USSR. But it would required Taiwan to 'force' the US's hand - in other words - taken a bold initiative and force the US into a situation it could not shrink from. Reagan would have had to 'man up' and deliver on all his tough talk...same with Bush I. China was too caught up with internal infighting and strife and it's Navy nowhere near as powerful as it is today and Russia was completely unraveling - everything was perfectly aligned as far as falling dominoes are concerned...and Taiwan would have gotten away with it. Problem was - Chiang's son and the KMT still held on that ridiculous pipe dream of returning to the mainland along with their 'police state mentality' depicted in the film Formosa Betrayed. I lived and visited Taiwan during these periods and felt the 'uncertainty' but sure fire lack of courage to 'piss off the US' (on Taiwan's part).

That was the Golden Missed Opportunity if there ever was one. China has since gotten it's act together is solid in it's leadership circles (vs back then), and economic powerhouse (which it was not at the time but was slowly and secretly mapping it out), the US had an idle and ready military (fresh from it's Reagan build up), with the USSR coming apart..this had to have a huge psychological blow to China.

But today, if China just 'took Taiwan'...it would get away with it. Sure, the West would be pissed..but they'd get over it (and the US wouldn't do squat, for the same reasons the US public wouldn't tolerate full on US military action in Africa). The reason China doesn't make such a bold move is the Tibet problem...this would create a 2nd 'Tibet' problem and the economic rich China has developed a bit of a mindful 'public relations' sense of self and is a little concerned about 'too much' bad press... they don't mind some bad press, but there is a limit nowadays on how much is 'too much'.

Taiwan's best bet to make such move - if they desire it as a popular majority.... is to do so amid the next China - Tibet flare up/crisis when it comes (but it has to be major). And it will come.

Other than that..just wait it out, as China continues to morph and become more and more dependent on capitalistic ways and means, I believe a yet unforeseen solution will present itself.

BN747



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8776 posts, RR: 3
Reply 12, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1263 times:

Quoting B2443 (Reply 6):
Before 1921, nothing in China was ruled by CCP, and that does not mean China did not include Taiwan, or Guangdong, or Beijing for that matter.

Taiwan, no. Urumqi, no. Lhasa also no.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 5):
Really? Who governed Taiwan from 1945 to 1949? S

China was a failed state during that period. This is like who governed Bosnia in 1993. Or who governed France in 1941. It was wartime.

China could have easily broken into a number of countries, as Yugoslavia did. In a way, it is amazing the PRC even exists in its present form, with Xinjiang and Tibet added onto it. But did China have a "government" in 1946, no.

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 5):
It is disingenuous to ignore the 212 years rule by the Qing empire prior to this event.

The argument that WWII powers should finally hand Taiwan "back" to China is no longer valid. In 200 years, it will be even less valid.

If the PRC had existed in 1945, rather than the stateless period, then I would agree the case for Taiwan assignment to PRC would be stronger. But all democracies have been formed (some by force) against the forces of totalitarianism. I see Taiwan as no different.

But you are right, I was purposely not mentioning the Qing period because it doesn't illuminate what is non-PRC about Taiwan. Clearly, there is some legitimacy to the argument PRC should rule Taiwan as a totalitarian state (even though they failed to conquer Taiwan themselves). Not the strongest argument I ever heard. But it's there.


User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (3 years 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1229 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
But did China have a "government" in 1946, no.

Chiang Kai-shek must be rolling in his grave. Which government did the Japanese forces in China surrender to 1945? Which regime represented China in the UN until 1971? Just because the government engaged in civil war with the CCP forces doesn't mean it is not a government (For what it is worth, there wasn't even a full scale civil war from 1945 to 1946). Sri Lanka government fought Tamil Tigers for over two decades. Did Sri Lanka lack a government during all this time?

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
In a way, it is amazing the PRC even exists in its present form, with Xinjiang and Tibet added onto it.

Nothing at all amazing. Chinese has a long history of desire of unification. It is not a coincidence that periods of control by unified empires were also when Chinese economy, art and scientific innovation flourished.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
The argument that WWII powers should finally hand Taiwan "back" to China is no longer valid

Once more, Taiwan did return to Chinese rule after WWII. The then government of China retreated to Taiwan after defeat in civil war roughly 4 years later.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
But you are right, I was purposely not mentioning the Qing period because it doesn't illuminate what is non-PRC about Taiwan

Another words, you are ignoring history because it doesn't suit your viewpoint.
To be clear, I am not in support of PRC forcefully reclaim Taiwan. If the price to pay to claim Taiwan is a war then I would rather let Taiwan claim independence as it is essentially functioning as one anyway. The worst is to see people of the same ethnicity, essentially brothers and sisters, fighting each other. What I cannot support is a lack of understanding of the historical circumstance leading to the current state, a misunderstanding of the current popular wish in Taiwan (with due respect to foppisbum above), and an attempt to resort to democracy argument to justify one's position while democracy has very little to do with the problem.

[Edited 2011-12-03 16:33:02]

[Edited 2011-12-03 16:33:55]

[Edited 2011-12-03 16:34:26]

User currently offlinealexeu From Nauru, joined Oct 2007, 1826 posts, RR: 2
Reply 14, posted (3 years 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1175 times:

Why would they declare independence. They can just change the official name to ´´Republic of Taiwan´´ and drop the old claim.

User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 1112 times:

Quoting alexeu (Reply 14):
They can just change the official name to ´´Republic of Taiwan´

That is tantamount to declaring independence.


User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5620 posts, RR: 51
Reply 16, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 1103 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 15):
Quoting alexeu (Reply 14):
They can just change the official name to ´´Republic of Taiwan´

That is tantamount to declaring independence.

And is tantamount to daring China to open up all guns and overrun the place!

The old joke goes China has enough people that they could form several human bridges across the taiwan strait and march 'a spare' 100 million armed men right across to overtake the islands 20 million citizens (incl. it's 2 million men military).

BN747



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1091 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 16):
And is tantamount to daring China to open up all guns and overrun the place!

The old joke goes China has enough people that they could form several human bridges across the taiwan strait and march 'a spare' 100 million armed men right across to overtake the islands 20 million citizens (incl. it's 2 million men military).

To be honest I think the US will shut this attempt down well before it becomes a reality. The closest they came was during Chen Shui-bian's reign. What GWB and Secretary Rice did was a good indication of what we can expect should such event occur in the future. With the benefit of hindsight, it does seem Chen's overture about independence was nothing but an attempt to divert attention from his own corrupt conduct, which landed him in prison.


User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5620 posts, RR: 51
Reply 18, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 1079 times:

Quoting Cerecl (Reply 17):
Quoting BN747 (Reply 16):
And is tantamount to daring China to open up all guns and overrun the place!

The old joke goes China has enough people that they could form several human bridges across the taiwan strait and march 'a spare' 100 million armed men right across to overtake the islands 20 million citizens (incl. it's 2 million men military).

To be honest I think the US will shut this attempt down well before it becomes a reality. The closest they came was during Chen Shui-bian's reign. What GWB and Secretary Rice did was a good indication of what we can expect should such event occur in the future. With the benefit of hindsight, it does seem Chen's overture about independence was nothing but an attempt to divert attention from his own corrupt conduct, which landed him in prison.

I respectfully disagree, the American public is quite ignorant of the Taiwan-China spat.

Americans are weary of distant wars.

If an Iran war breaks out and the US gets involved more deeply than it's Libyan escapade .. that would be China's best moment to strike. The US would not do a thing and the American public wouldn't support intervention.

But China most likely would do it..because of PR concerns as I mentioned above. So they'll work their mojo under the table..employing a 'zen like' patience. Taiwan isn't going anywhere, they'll wait it out.

BN747



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlineCerecl From Australia, joined Jul 2008, 742 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (3 years 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 1049 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 18):

I respectfully disagree, the American public is quite ignorant of the Taiwan-China spat.

Actually I don't think we disagree fundamentally. I think the last thing the US government wants is an open confrontation with China. Therefore, it will do all it can to remove any trigger of a war across the Strait.
I agree China will not "strike" if US gets involved with a war with Iran. Now is not the time to change the status quo. If KMT/Nationalist Party is reelected next year in Taiwan, the risk of war is practically non-existent.


User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 1018 times:

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
Quoting B2443 (Reply 6):Before 1921, nothing in China was ruled by CCP, and that does not mean China did not include Taiwan, or Guangdong, or Beijing for that matter.
Taiwan, no. Urumqi, no. Lhasa also no.

So is there a point to argue it's not Chinese if CCP hasn't ruled it? Didn't think so. It doesn't matter. Taiwan is a Chinese territory and it is not independent from China. And Let's not get Urumqi or Lhasa invloved in here as they belonged to China and they were and are still shown in the Republic of China map even before CCP was born. In other word, CCP isn't the key word here.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
China could have easily broken into a number of countries, as Yugoslavia did. In a way, it is amazing the PRC even exists in its present form, with Xinjiang and Tibet added onto it. But did China have a "government" in 1946, no.

False. Xinjiang and Tibet were not added as they had existed BEFORE the WWII. Check your Republic of China map for god's sake. Then check Qing maps.

Quoting Flighty (Reply 12):
If the PRC had existed in 1945, rather than the stateless period, then I would agree the case for Taiwan assignment to PRC would be stronger. But all democracies have been formed (some by force) against the forces of totalitarianism. I see Taiwan as no different

But Republic of China did exist and it was the rightful home Taiwan was return to, as Taiwan WAS Chinese. It was not about an assignement. It was about the Japanese following the international treaties after the WWII.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 10):
There were really only 2 windows for Taiwan to declare independence, and both are now gone:
1. In the 60's/70's when China was weak. But, as said, the KMT did not want independence...they still saw themselves as the legit rulers of all China,
2. In 2006-2008 or within the year or so before the Beijing Olympics....this was the most important cultural event to China in decades and an attack on Taiwan prior to the Olympics would have ruined the 2008 games and China's image as a result. China I think would have growled strongly but not invaded Taiwan prior to the Olympics, allowing Taiwan time to establish its diplomatic independence.

1) was doubtful and 2) was never a window. Beijing was fully prepared to get things under control even if it meant no Olympics. Olympics was not and never will be a "core interest" to Beijing, i.e., there's no way that an international event could weigh as much as a territorial matter.


User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 1001 times:

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
but the best window of opportunity was smack in the middle of the e Tiananmen Square debacle.

No. all of sudden Tiananmen would have been cleared by itself as all the attention would have shifted to that and immediately united all parties and people. KMT knew what was in stake.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
Because political power (in China) during these moments were in complete disarray. it was nowhere near as consolidated as it is now. The US 7th Fleet (and entire US military) which had stood between the two up until the establishment of diplomatic relations with Beijing (and beyond) would have been much more effective as a deterrent. The US was not involved in any major conflict at the time - but highly focused on bringing down the (already crumbling) USSR. But it would required Taiwan to 'force' the US's hand - in other words - taken a bold initiative and force the US into a situation it could not shrink from. Reagan would have had to 'man up' and deliver on all his tough talk...same with Bush I. China was too caught up with internal infighting and strife and it's Navy nowhere near as powerful as it is today and Russia was completely unraveling - everything was perfectly aligned as far as falling dominoes are concerned...and Taiwan would have gotten away with it. Problem was - Chiang's son and the KMT still held on that ridiculous pipe dream of returning to the mainland along with their 'police state mentality' depicted in the film Formosa Betrayed. I lived and visited Taiwan during these periods and felt the 'uncertainty' but sure fire lack of courage to 'piss off the US' (on Taiwan's part).

In other words, Taiwan dragging US into a war? For what? What's in it for the U.S that KMT reclaiming the mainland??? To spread democracy? Oh wait, in 1989 Taiwan wasn't exactly a democracy, was it?

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
But today, if China just 'took Taiwan'...it would get away with it. Sure, the West would be pissed..but they'd get over it (and the US wouldn't do squat, for the same reasons the US public wouldn't tolerate full on US military action in Africa). The reason China doesn't make such a bold move is the Tibet problem...this would create a 2nd 'Tibet' problem and the economic rich China has developed a bit of a mindful 'public relations' sense of self and is a little concerned about 'too much' bad press... they don't mind some bad press, but there is a limit nowadays on how much is 'too much'.

Hong Kong seems to be doing just fine. Money talks. Oh I believe some people wanted it to turn into another Tibet.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
Taiwan's best bet to make such move - if they desire it as a popular majority.... is to do so amid the next China - Tibet flare up/crisis when it comes (but it has to be major). And it will come.

China-Tibet flare creating an opportunity for KMT (let's face it no one else in Taiwan wants to) relaiming the mainland? Good lord. Korean war did not, VietNam war did not. Indian war did not, cultural revolution did not ...it's either there wasn't any oppotunity or KMT just didn't have the guts to take them. nuf said. But nobody wants war, right?

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
Other than that..just wait it out, as China continues to morph and become more and more dependent on capitalistic ways and means, I believe a yet unforeseen solution will present itself.

Best scenario for now. One thing for sure, it's NOT up to Taiwan.


User currently offlineB2443 From United States of America, joined Jul 2004, 703 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 998 times:

Quoting foppishbum (Reply 7):
because we were previously ruled by the Japanese people

It was a unfortunate period from the Chinese perspective. But how did it feel to the people in Taiwan under the foreign rule? Seeing there're definitely some Japanese elements/admiration in the current day Taiwan society and with its former 'president' Lee Tunghui proudly displaying his loyalty to Japan and not having to be concerned about the Chinese resentment towards the Japanese due to the wars, i guess it wasn't too bad? It certainly was bad in the Mainland.


User currently offlineBN747 From United States of America, joined Mar 2002, 5620 posts, RR: 51
Reply 23, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 997 times:

Quoting B2443 (Reply 21):

Quoting BN747 (Reply 11):
Taiwan's best bet to make such move - if they desire it as a popular majority.... is to do so amid the next China - Tibet flare up/crisis when it comes (but it has to be major). And it will come.

China-Tibet flare creating an opportunity for KMT (let's face it no one else in Taiwan wants to) relaiming the mainland?

Where on earth are you getting the idea that I'm remotely suggesting a 'reclaiming the mainland'..that ship sailed in 1948! And became more impossible each hour since.

Quoting B2443 (Reply 21):

In other words, Taiwan dragging US into a war? For what? What's in it for the U.S that KMT reclaiming the mainland??? To spread democracy? Oh wait, in 1989 Taiwan wasn't exactly a democracy, was it?

No! Not reclaiming of anything.. I'm talking about a Taiwan clean break from it all.



"Home of the Brave, made by the Slaves..Land of the Free, if you look like me.." T. Jefferson
User currently offlinefoppishbum From Taiwan, joined Mar 2006, 863 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (3 years 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 976 times:

Quoting B2443 (Reply 22):
But how did it feel to the people in Taiwan under the foreign rule?

I understand it was very bad in Mainland. However, Taiwan wasn't a paradise under Japanese military rule either. I know a couple of stories of my great grandfather, grandfather, great uncles/aunts complaining about the Japanese police who were very unruly and aggressive. Moreover, during the Japanese occupation, Japanese military "recruited" many Taiwanese women to provide sexual services to the Japanese military men. I don't know the technical/politically-correct term of those kind of slavery in English..."comfort women"? I'm not sure if the same thing happened to Japanese women too.

Quoting BN747 (Reply 23):
I'm talking about a Taiwan clean break from it all.

I would like that!  



I'm a Taiwanese-American living in NYC and LA.
25 B2443 : Oh they did try reclaim. I don't think the thought has completely died in KMT. Anyway, even speaking of windows of breaking-up, I am not sure it ever
26 BN747 : Really? When did they mount up ships with troops and weapons to stage an attack? I missed that one. In the political world there are always windows o
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