zhiao From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 292 posts, RR: 0 Reply 2, posted (3 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 2418 times:
Excuse me, but the labor force grew, and the decline in the rate was due 100% to an increase in employment. Read the report. I know this is bad news for Romney, but give credit where it's due.
cmhsrq From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 955 posts, RR: 5 Reply 3, posted (3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2410 times:
The good news is that all those jobs were created, it seems that things are starting to pick up. The bad news is 1.8 million people quit looking for work, and about 130,000 new jobs are needed every month just to keep up with people entering the work force. I hope the numbers continue to improve for the sake and good of all Americans.
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 4, posted (3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2410 times:
If Mitt Romney doesn't worry about them why should you?
If you don't think that these unemployment numbers are not a big issue - then you couldn't have thought unemployment numbers were a big issue before.
Wall Street (the ones that can do no wrong) - have drunk the cool-aid. Can Wall Street be wrong?
The rally pushed pushed the Dow, up more than 5% in 2012, to the highest level since May 2008. The Nasdaq, up more than 11% for the year, climbed to its highest level since December 2000. The S&P 500 has gained almost 7% this year, and is at a six-month high.
CASINTEREST From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2309 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2376 times:
the economy is the number 1 way to win elections. Regardless of what effect the President has on it. If it is improving, then the GOP has a bigger problem unseating Obama. they will have to resort to polical battles on immigration, foreign policies, defense and social conservatism....... Which the GOP is still fighting about in the Primary's amongs themselves.
If Flanker is a strong GOP supporter, then one of the prime ammo tools for the election is slipping away.
flanker From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 1506 posts, RR: 1 Reply 10, posted (3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2365 times:
Adding jobs is great, nobody in their right mind would dispute that. But anyone could have seen this from a mile away in an election year. And if you guys think that these figures wont/ aren't be screwed with then you gotta wake up and smell the coffee.
Especially since the actual rate is around 15% at least give or take when you count all those previously mentioned variables.
Freedom is never more than one generation away from extinction
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 12, posted (3 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2341 times:
Quoting flanker (Reply 12): Adding jobs is great, nobody in their right mind would dispute that. But anyone could have seen this from a mile away in an election year. And if you guys think that these figures wont/ aren't be screwed with then you gotta wake up and smell the coffee.
So.. GWB. actually screwed with the unemployment rate to keep it artificially high (and rising) for the 2008 election year?
Jun 2008: 5.6%
Jul 2008: 5.8%
Ago 2008: 6.1%
Sep 2008: 6.1%
Oct 2008: 6.5%
Nov 2008: 6.8%
If the number can be screwed around with - why didn't Obama had a 4% unemployment rate the las 3 years?
Quoting flanker (Reply 12): And if you guys think that these figures wont/ aren't be screwed with then you gotta wake up and smell the coffee.
Quoting flanker (Reply 12): Especially since the actual rate is around 15% at least give or take when you count all those previously mentioned variables.
So Wall-Street has been duped!?!!! The market keeps rising.Quick - let the, know its all a fake!
tugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 3557 posts, RR: 4 Reply 13, posted (3 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2322 times:
I keep wondering if this will be an opportunity lost for the Republican's who have been saying that every current policy of the administration is a failure and have been withholding action on job related tasks. Had they done anything the Republican's could at least point to that and say "Things are getting better because we did X....". Of course I am certain that what they will say is that "We prevented increases in taxes and that is what allowed the economy to improve."
I believe it was the hope/expectation that Republican's would have abetter chance at winning in the election cycle by being able to say "Look how terrible things are under this administration" etc. The problem is that the economy is cycling towards improvement (though you never know, things could always still tank). We'll have to see.
1.) We can't keep extending unemployment benefits. I personally believe they should not have been extended as much as they have already (and yes, I understand the extensive hardship that would have caused. I am not meaning to get into a debate about that.)
2.) In any economy there are people that are under employed and the fact is that type of employment increases during a down cycle. It is what it is, there is no way to "fix" under employment when someone is desperate for a job and has to take one. It happens.
3.) When discussing "people giving up looking for work" remember a portion of them are people that don't didn't want to work but needed the income of the benefits. It is not a large percentage but it is there. Also most people do not "give up" looking for work unless there is a new income stream that has appeared and allows them to be stable. Again some do just give up but it is not a large percentage.
Quoting flanker (Reply 12): Adding jobs is great, nobody in their right mind would dispute that. But anyone could have seen this from a mile away in an election year. And if you guys think that these figures wont/ aren't be screwed with then you gotta wake up and smell the coffee.
Especially since the actual rate is around 15% at least give or take when you count all those previously mentioned variables.
So there is a vast left wing conspiracy? Always love the conspiracy theorists. The numbers are what they are and if they are "adjusted" they have always been adjusted to show the best numbers possible which keeps them consistent. That means the change at least is real.
Tugg
Edited for spelling
[Edited 2012-02-03 11:09:52]
[Edited 2012-02-03 14:27:43 by SA7700]
everything I have learned I have learned by mistake
Dreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 6457 posts, RR: 36 Reply 14, posted (3 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2317 times:
Quoting zhiao (Reply 3): Excuse me, but the labor force grew, and the decline in the rate was due 100% to an increase in employment. Read the report. I know this is bad news for Romney, but give credit where it's due.
Ever since 2008, BLS numbers have been showing ridiculously low or even negative growth rates for the US workforce population. On average, the US workforce increased in size by about 1.771 million people per year. since 2008, the average has been less than half that. People haven't stopped growing up.
If we adjust the total workforce to comply with the same growth rates that were in place from 2000-2008, the actual workforce should be 160.1 million, not the 152.8 million reported by BLS. That would change the current unemployment rate to 12.6%, down from a peak of nearly 14%.
That does not count the underemployed.
Some of you might cry foul, but I think it's fair to assume that in spite of recessions, people continue to grow up and enter the workforce.
I am Descartes of Borg. I assimilate, therefore I am
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted (3 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2291 times:
Dreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 6457 posts, RR: 36 Reply 16, posted (3 months 3 weeks 15 hours ago) and read 2270 times:
Quoting mt99 (Reply 17):
And it never has.. Whats your point?
Simply that the numbers are being fudged. Hardly a surprise, as 99% of people will ignore it. But the fact of the matter is that millions of people have been simply removed from the denominator in order to artificially lower the unemployment rate.
in fact last month showed the biggest 1-month decline in work force participation in the past 60 years - over a million people in a single month - poof! They're gone.
I am Descartes of Borg. I assimilate, therefore I am
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 17, posted (3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2254 times:
Romney, to the disbelief of the conservative media, has admitted the economy has been getting better. What he is saying is that it's no thanks to President Obama and that in fact the President has slowed the recovery. Romney's words, but he's not denying the (gradual) improvement.
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 20, posted (3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2231 times:
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 20):
Are they any different from anyone else? They watch the same news as we do, and generally don't go digging.
I would certainly hope so!
So you think that the great Wall Street Companies do not do any research? Whats more - you are saying that you know more than ANY of them.
You just blew the lid on this secret buddy!. Congratulations. Until you post - no one new that these numbers do not include underemployment.
mt99 From United States of America, joined exactly 13 years ago today! , 5640 posts, RR: 8 Reply 22, posted (3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2210 times:
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 23): So you are not denying that the 8.3% unemployment number is fudged, right?
Its the same formula that was used during Reagan, Clinton, Bush I and I - But -hey tell us about the underemployed during Reagan and GWB.
So, you are not denying that you know more than all of the Wall Street trading companies?
The graphs don't tell much. There is no back up to them as you did not post the contributing article that they support. Also the ranges that they cover are pretty tight which can lead to distortions. For the labor force participation rate I would have to see what the historic cycle is, the graph presented looks like it could be just one cycle of a normal cycle. Without a larger view you can't tell if they are just cherry picking.
Also ZeroHedge is known to be a "stir the pot" blog. Stirring things up and getting others to look and then see if things are discovered to back up the assertions. Not saying it is a bad site, just how it operates. What it states is not always fact and often enough conjecture backed up with numbers that others have to vet. They have made some good points and discovered some good things but they stir first to get other to dig.
Tugg
everything I have learned I have learned by mistake
CASINTEREST From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 2309 posts, RR: 1 Reply 24, posted (3 months 3 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 2204 times:
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 18): Simply that the numbers are being fudged. Hardly a surprise, as 99% of people will ignore it. But the fact of the matter is that millions of people have been simply removed from the denominator in order to artificially lower the unemployment rate.
Your 2nd graph doesn't take into account that the retirees are living longer in retirement. Along
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 18): in fact last month showed the biggest 1-month decline in work force participation in the past 60 years - over a million people in a single month - poof! They're gone.
Nope
Nope it went up by over a million
25 tugger: That's what I would expect the Republican's to say. And if the economy continues to improve they will say it even more stridently. Are you denying th
26 zhiao: There is no fudging; if people left the labor force and this leads to an unemployment rate that is lower but for the exit, it's simply a fact, and not
27 DeltaMD90: Well think about that for a second. It makes sense that you can have an ineffective leader that doesn't do much to fix the economy, but the economy w
28 Rara: OK maybe it's because I've been out drinking, but I've just spent a couple minutes over this sentence and still haven't worked it out.
29 DocLightning: I do wonder if the President was a Republican if you would be so suspicious. Even in the Detroit area, the papers are filling with want ads. Are they
30 seb146: Hasn't the right-wing been screaming about how much Obama hates corporations and capitalists and hates the markets and the high unemployment that beg
31 Pu: It seems to me if the rate falls to well within the 7s, Obama is much harder to beat. If it falls to within the 6s by election day I say he is almost
32 CALTECH: A look at the bls.gov website shows that: In December 2011, 132,952,000 people had a job. In January 2012, 130,263,000 people had a job. This is a ne
33 Dreadnought: You provided the source. Check page 7 of your link.
34 einsteinboricua: Is it that they stopped looking for a job or is it that they have retired? Or could it be that they have taken positions that other people have left
35 okie: Let us see food stamp recipients have grown 40% from 32M to 46M people under the present administration, kind of gives a clue that the work force has
36 tugger: I don't understand why people here keep just posting rhetoric and do not read what has been posted. Instead we have people intent on making some kind
37 seb146: The right wing hates it because it is a Black Democrat in the White House doing it. Eight years of rich White guys screwing up the economy and only 3
38 zhiao: They are not all low wage jobs; the healthcare industry and manufacturing both added large amounts of jobs, and they are high paying. Manufacturing ad
39 Ken777: And most voters will evaluate the economy and politicians based on soundbites. There are a lot of ways to look at the country's unemployment situatio
40 DocLightning: Which is less than under the previous administration, actually. He is? How? He's sure tried, but the GOP has blocked every effort. In spite of that,
41 seb146: And it is very telling what kind of jobs are being created. People keep saying how they want jobs created so people can feed themselves and house the
42 DocLightning: I'm reminded of this point in the Clinton administration. There was a political cartoon of Clinton bragging about new job creation: "Our administrati
43 Pangea: No, the right wing and folks with common sense hate obama's agenda because we know what he wants is extremely detrimental to the US as a whole. Have
44 Pangea: That's inaccurate. The democrat controlled senate has not passed a budget in over 1000 days... that's one thousand days, close to 3 years. The rep co
45 seb146: And how many years did the right-wing controlled House spend because (to quote the former VP Cheney) "Deficits don't matter" and they just spent, and
46 DeltaMD90: This left vs right, democrat vs republican pissing match is the reason why nothing ever gets done in this country. No one ever owns up to their party
47 tugger: Very uncalled for. Very untrue. No it is not at all. It is the inability of the the legislature to work together and balance revenues and expenses th
48 Pangea: Unfortunately, you're not seeing my point and I never said you/obama/liberals amassed a $15 trillion deficit. I just pointed out how much obama added
49 Pangea: You're mistaken and that's simply a progressive media talking point to spread the blame on everyone when it solely falls on Obama/reid/pelosi. The Ho
50 zckls04: Not true. The US wasn't downgraded because of the debt, but because of the inability of Congress to compromise and form a coherent strategy for payin
51 D L X: This is why you're on my RR list. This is absolutely true. It is quite ironic that the person that you were replying to claims that this is just a pr
52 Pangea: With all due respect folks, it's completely asinine to believe the downgrade, which happened during Obama's 3rd year in office, was the result of con
53 mt99: Can it be more clear? "More broadly, the downgrade reflects our view that the effectiveness, stability, and predictability of American policymaking a
54 Dreadnought: Are you saying that if our debt was much lower, and Congress was still at loggerheads, we would have still lost our credit rating? Utter horse manure
55 seb146: This makes me sick! When anyone said this under the Bush regeme, we were laughed at and called terrorists and how we hated America. Solyndra had alre
56 Pangea: You forgot to mention S&P's headline: "Rising Debt Burden; Outlook Negative". And I stand by what I said. All this could have been avoided if Oba
57 Pangea: It appears you still do unfortunately. But did the Bush admin approve the loan? NO! The Bush admin in fact voted against the Solyndra loan. Obama app
58 mt99: Did you not read what was next to that : "Political Risk"? "United States of America Long-Term Rating Lowered To 'AA+' Due To Political Risks, Rising
59 DeltaMD90: Geez. Find the party that hasn't raised our debt ridiculously in the past decade so we can forever call them blameless. But both parties have been irr
60 Dreadnought: The oft-repeated lie, Thanks to Pangea for refuting it (although I'm sure that you will continue to believe that it's all Bush's fault) Based on an a
61 Pangea: I was trying to put things into their proper context with some sarcasm and humor added in. But it seems you missed that choosing to see things in jus
62 mt99: And everything that is before the comma is to be ignored?
63 Superfly: Agreed but I wish the press and government officials stop using terms like "gave up looking for work". The fact is that many of those receiving unemp
65 DeltaMD90: Yikes, that hurts. Wasn't talking about that, just talking in general
66 Pangea: Bingo The downgrade could have been avoided if there was gridlock during Obama's 1st 2 years in office. He would not have had the ability to spend ta
67 mt99: I did - but you confuse me.. you have changed your tune about this a few time within the same thread.. You said that credit agencies did not take int
68 Pangea: No I didn't If they did they were wrong in doing so. They should have been apolitical. Nice try, but what you're conveniently neglecting to take into
69 CASINTEREST: yes, But you failed to read page 6. " The adjustment increased the estimated size of the civilian noninstitutional population in December by 1,510,00
70 mt99: "If they did"? The clearly did! I can post the direct link to S&P Statement once more. Will you read it this time? It was apolitical. They did no
71 seb146: It amazes me how a blog can post something with NO SOURCE and people believe it. I suppose if I wave the right-wing banner for a few months, I can al
72 Pangea: You're again conveniently missing a few things here. 1st, Clinton worked with a republican congress, using conservatives ideas to rein in spending wh
73 mt99: I am not leaving out anything. The facts are there: There was a surplus with Clinton, a deficit with Bush. Simple. It follows your logic...[Edited 20
74 D L X: ????? I was one of the people saying it then too.
75 Dreadnought: The may have qualified to get their application up to the top, and then they were REJECTED. What part of that do you not get? First of all, the gover
76 DocLightning: Given that Obama had very little role in the CONGRESSIONAL budget talks, I would say that the above statement is false. You could blame the congressi
77 tugger: And you are saying that you can write an alternate history book? OK you can write fiction, great. You cannot say what you just stated with absolute c
78 DeltaMD90: Yes, and I think many people go through this phase. I think it's my time to feel the piss in the face. I never got this concept either. With no compr
79 seb146: Kinda like when DEMOCRATS are in control in Congress and the republi-CON is president? Guess what gets done in the name of "since I am president, I w
80 Pangea: The reason why the size of the workforce is so significant now is due to it falling so quickly to a 30 year low which has contributed to half of the
81 tugger: Wow, seb (or is that supposed to be Seb? ) take a deep breath! I am saying this with humor but also honestly, this to me is approaching a gross overr
82 Pangea: I'm well aware of the retiring baby boomer generation. Which is why I bought an investment property in Lee co FL in 2010. Your thesis, however, is fl
83 DeltaMD90: Uh, you completely misunderstood what I was trying to say. I was saying I don't understand the Republican's "no compromise" strategy because all it d
84 CASINTEREST: That wasn't a spike down. Or people dropping out of the workforce. It was a population readjustment. Did you happen to notice that 2 million people j
85 mt99: Funny you should mention college grad unemployment rate. Its currently 4.2% and has held steady,.,, Keep in school kids!
86 tugger: It is not my thesis. It is a well vetted source for why am making the statements I am making. What are your sources for the statements you are making
87 seb146: Both sides do this and it is stupid. They all get into "We'll show them by doing X" and, when someone from the other party sides with them, they are
88 DeltaMD90: Funny you should say this, I had a few revelations lately and I thought "why haven't more people thought of this?" then I realized "Oh, they did, the
89 zhiao: The unemployment rate is based on the household survey, which is different than the source where the 243,000 is from. The household survey showed 800,
90 Pangea: Gentlemen, Current economic conditions, social events too i.e. OWS, show that the primary cause for the declining workforce is due to people of all ag
91 zhiao: I repeat the LF did not shrink. The numbers from the BLS look that way because of population adjustment it made using 2010 Census numbers. The WSJ its
92 tugger: To whit: http://blogs.wsj.com/economics/2012/...behind-the-unemployment-rate-drop/ Tugg
93 CASINTEREST: 'Do you have anything other than regurgitated links from 4-6 months ago? this post of yours ranks somwhere between outdated and irrelevant.
94 seb146: One thing that bothers me about the English language is there is no equivilant for "all of you" so we have to say "you" and people take it personal.
95 TOMMY767: No. the democrats were the ones who were active is letting all those sub prime loans be handed out to people who didn't have the credentials to pay f
96 mt99: While certain Republican President stood and watched..
97 Ken777: Too many times people are saying the Great Recession is going to take a generation or two to recover. Everyone on the far right believes that, but hi
98 DeltaMD90: They do, it's "yall" But back on topic, how are we going to avoid a crisis like this if we can't even agree on the cause of it? Was it uncontrolled c
99 Pangea: Reply 96- Mt99 Google: Youtube Republicans warned democrats of fanny mea and freddy mac. Youtube Fannie may freddie mac Barnnie frank. I'd provide the
100 mt99: Who was president? where does the proverbial "buck" stops? So in their capacity as Presidents to dictate economic policy, GWB was completely innocent
101 TOMMY767: Yeah we still got that. Bush and Obama are actually very similar in terms of the way they govern the Executive. They both do a horrible job of reachi
102 Pangea: Ok Mt99, yeah the buck stops with Obama. See my reply 90. lol (Rotfl)
103 zhiao: Let's wait until next months good employment number, and then the month after. Soon threre will be no excuses.
105 mt99: "Forty percent (40%) of Likely U.S. Voters now rate the president’s performance in the economic area as good or excellent, according to a new Rasmus
107 CALTECH: They use the numbers, just like they change their campaign promises to protect themselves. The unemployment rate is very high. No, nobody manipulates
108 mt99: ""The forecast of the unemployment rate that will accompany the budget should be considered stale and out of date,"" http://news.yahoo.com/white-hous
109 DeltaMD90: I think the next few months will answer a lot of questions... are his policies working or is this month just a fluke? I really hope this is just the b
110 DocLightning: Well, "Morals!" "Homosexuals are destroying Christian children!" "Death Panels!" Worked great for Dole in 1996...
111 CALTECH: Sure. Just they aren't revising the unemployed figure upwards like they should. Manipulators. Dare I say it, liars. I am sure that folks that are say
112 mt99: They are not talking about the "unemployed figure", They are talking about the "unemployment rate". Which in case you haven't noticed.. went down las
113 CALTECH: Semantics. In which case if you haven't noticed, this economy is really the worst since Carter. http://www.usnews.com/news/blogs/was...times-worse-th
114 seb146: So, Tommy, it was never the banks approving loans? The banks had nothing to do with lumping all those sub-prime mortgages together with standard mort
115 Pu: Incorrect. A careful reading from S&P reveals the US credit rating was not downgraded because of inability to pay, in fact the financial ability
116 Pangea: Hhmm, this super hyper partisan political infighting didn't seem to materialize until Obama took office. Obama mocking republicans while making state
117 Pangea: Maybe from a very questionable unemployment rate #. Other than that Obama's record on the economy is dire. Reagan's on the other hand was far more ro
118 Pu: Do you honestly not see the ridiculous partisan political infighting of which you practice as perfectly exemplified by your statement? Solutions are
119 CASINTEREST: Of course he doesn't. He just regurgitated the same junk he couldn't defend earlier in the thread.. Lame and outdated info,
120 DocLightning: Yeah. Well-spotted. It started with the Birthers. Then the Tea Party took over. But it REALLY got going after the Tea Party took over one half of one
121 Dreadnought: Let's review a few points: - US was downgraded, in part because of the political infighting. - The political infighting is between one group who want
122 Superfly: Sad indeed but it's scary that they vote!
123 CASINTEREST: Statement's like yours are why the GOP is going down the toilet. Belittleing those that diifer in opinion with the GOP. The real issue is that the GO
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