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Where Is Argentina Going?  
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1950 posts, RR: 2
Posted (2 years 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2582 times:

After several days of threats and screams today the Argentina's President announced the re-nationalization of YPF. This is only the last of a series of un-orthodoxe economical measures, which failed catastrophically along the recent history in several countries around the world.
All the experts ( including some World Bank and IMF authorities, EU authorities and Argentinian economists ) are saying that this last move over YPF is the nail in the coffin to any foreign investment, and that every investor in the world will avoid Argentina like the plague effective today. All of them are forecasting black days for the ( common ) people of Argentina.
This black days are confirmed, in the meantime, for several reports ( all credible and demonstrated ) of lack of medicines, cooking oil, auto parts.... even washing machines and irons are hard to find and the people is travelling to Chile or Uruguay to buy this products.

So, given that this forum have people from all around the world, I would like your opinion, what do you think ?

Where is this country going ?


G.

[Edited 2012-04-16 10:53:50]


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38 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineAeroflot001 From Argentina, joined Oct 2009, 400 posts, RR: 0
Reply 1, posted (2 years 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2550 times:

It all seems up in the air now, for the years after the 2002 downfall it was being said that the economy was rising once more and tourism had gone up as well but now it seems that there is less of a sense of security and tourism may be diminishing. Some people I know have even mentioned saying that it would not be so bad going back to the "good old days" of the military state though that seems quite extreme...

User currently offlinesprout5199 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 1833 posts, RR: 2
Reply 2, posted (2 years 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2510 times:

According to this:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/South_American_Plate

Argentina is moving westward with the rest of South America.

Sorry just had to say this. You can flame me now   

Dan in Jupiter


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10725 posts, RR: 38
Reply 3, posted (2 years 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2492 times:

It seems that La Cretina is under strong Chavez influence.

I was in Buenos Aires during the campaign. I was even surprised she got reelected. I have serious doubt that she will do the whole term though. I hope not.

I visit Buenos Aires every year some times more than once a year depending on air fares. EZE makes for very good cheap mileage runs at times.

I hope the country will get back on its own two feet and I can keep my regular visits and many more can do the same.



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlinelewis From Greece, joined Jul 1999, 3592 posts, RR: 5
Reply 4, posted (2 years 21 hours ago) and read 2405 times:

One thing is for sure, Madrid will not be happy with such a move regarding YPF.

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
All the experts [...] IMF authorities, EU authorities

I wouldn't really call them experts. I have yet to hear of a success story coming out of an IMF involvement and the EU authorities have problems within their turf to solve before offering their expertise to other countries. The EU is just afraid that some countries may lose ownership of Argentinean companies.


User currently offlineyyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16228 posts, RR: 57
Reply 5, posted (2 years 19 hours ago) and read 2361 times:

From afar, Argentina is seen as something of an economic and political basket case or laughing stock. It seems to lurch from economic crisis to crisis (from boom/slump cycles to inflation to govt intervention) while its neighbours (the very well run Chile and Brazil) go from strength to strength.Such a shameful fall from 100 years when Argentina had the world's highest standard of living.

In addition to the ongoing economic issues, Argentina is embarassing itself on the world stage by focusing diplomatically on the lost cause of trying to re-claim British territory (the Falklands). What a complete waste of time.

I don't see any hope for Argentina until its get its economic house in order. Argentines seem to spend their time living on the faded glories of past decades and generations. Such lost potential.

The future belongs to Chile and Brazil (and perhaps Uruguay), but not Argentina.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2129 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (2 years 18 hours ago) and read 2333 times:

Quoting Gonzalo (Thread starter):
Where is this country going ?

Well it certainly couldn't go much further South. Sorry, I couldn't resist.   

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 5):
From afar, Argentina is seen as something of an economic and political basket case or laughing stock.

Sadly, from an outsider's perspective, the country has been a political and economic soap opera not seen in many developed, Western countries. Eva Peron has been dead almost 60 years and she is still a rallying cry. Same with Che Guevara. It's hard to go a mile in Buenos Aires without seeing at least one reference to either of them, especially outside the wealthier areas. It makes for a very dynamic and passionate culture, and a great place to visit. But a stable one it does not. I foresee Argentine-owned bank accounts in Brickell getting larger and more numerous.

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 5):
I don't see any hope for Argentina until its get its economic house in order.

I wouldn't hold my breath. Argentina hasn't had a stable economy since the turn of the 20th century. Quite sad really.


User currently offlineDerico From Argentina, joined Dec 1999, 4276 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (2 years 18 hours ago) and read 2326 times:

Gonzalo is taking the opposition talking points slightly too literally in his OP. Remember many chileans come to Argentina for various treatments because they are priced out in their country. Sadly, for whatever reason, medicine is not universal to all citizens in the world,. Whether in rich or poor countries, medicine is either rationed to cover more people, or people are priced out to give more coverage to fewer ones.

Now to the topic.

I don't endorse any maneuver that involves the forceful transfer of assets from private to state. HOWEVER, I find it a bit hypocritical that all the countries denouncing the move, have nationalized companies: Codelco in Chile, Petrobras in Brazil, PEMEX in Mexico, and of course several in Europe. So unless Gonzalo is suggesting Codelco or Petrobras have failed catastrophically... I sense there is a bit of argie bashing foisted alongside genuine criticism, since we know Argentina is not the most liked of countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

The problem currently is that capitalism in Argentina is directly associated with the 1990s, which means it is reviled, fairly or not. It was the conservatives that spoused the "opening" of the country. The problem was this was done way too quickly and it caused mass unemployment as factories, farms, and services modernized and become much more productive (20 to 30 years worth of productivity gains), in just 5 or 6 years with far fewer employees. The economy, even as it grew, had no way of creating jobs fast enough to compensate for the productivity induced lay-offs.

So it was the conservatives, free-market types who burned their own model, because they did not account for this effect when they should have all along. So the last decade has been populist dominated as a result, which is a natural reaction to what happened in the overly corporate 1990s.

You add to that the fact that Argentina is the only country in Latin America that for decades has been an "escape valve" for the poor of other countries (including Chile in the 1970s and early 80s when that country was trully struggling, later Uruguay and Peru, and now Bolivia and Paraguay), we have a few million people that require services, housing, medical care and education but don't pay enough in consumption tax or don't pay any income tax since they are illegal. That causes a big problem by straining resources. And the populist wing of politics uses these people, promising them housing or legalization in order to get votes.

To be honest, populism at this point is better than the alternative, which would be a far-right wing government that would likely begin mass deportations to all points in South America, and a rearming of the country (right now Argentina has been unilaterally disarmed by the Kirchner government, it spends less than 1% of gdp on defense while all our neighbors have a base of 3% and some 4 to 5% of gdp). Also remember Argentina uses a lot of budget on subsidies to prices, and even to Aerolineas. Those would also be diverted to the military, and who knows even a nuclear program restared (since many experts agree Argentina was very close to getting a nuke in the 80s, and a few books on nuclear black market claim Argentina actually has nukes).

The above would be the worse case scenario which is highly unlikely but not impossible at this point given some recent rhetoric from fringe parties: a far-right nationalist, anti non-white immigrant, militaristic government in response to the populism of today. I don't think the world would like to see that.

The most likely outcome is inflation eats away at wages and the government loses popularity with its working class base. Then they will just go towards either the socialists (which actually are better than the Peronists because they are a more European style of responsible socialism), or their vote would just faction (specially if the main labor union breaks up), and a center-right party like PRO would gain power.



My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
User currently onlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5942 posts, RR: 30
Reply 8, posted (2 years 17 hours ago) and read 2302 times:
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Quoting Derico (Reply 7):
Codelco in Chile, Petrobras in Brazil, PEMEX in Mexico,

To be fair, Mexico has not denounced anything yet. PEMEX issued a very brief, discreet statement around 14:00 hrs local. Pretty restrained, if you consider that this seizing by Cristina impacts PEMEX roughly on 5% of its reserves, on 5% of its daily production and on about 3% of its revenues.

What the president has said, is his opinion at a world youth economic summit as a response posed to a question by a (British) student. http://www.eluniversal.com.mx/notas/841828.html

I don´t agree with what he said, and he should have shut up. However, being the lame duck he is these days, it does not carry much weight here, especially since these are election times in Mexico and campaigns are in full swing, with the left set to take the Executive and Legislative branches in July.

It´s the Spanish who´ve dragged us into this as Rajoy is coincidentally arriving here tomorrow on an official visit and have officialy asked Mexico to mediate, both as they assume we have some sort of "special friendship" with Argentina and more reasonably, as we have the rotating presidency of the G-20 group.

If any pronunciations are made, well, there probably won´t be much surprise on their content, as this is a far-right government, at least in the more visible (but much less powerful) Executive branch. It will probably be more words than action though. It´s just not our fight, to be honest, and frankly, there is only so much reasoning you can do with Cristina and her entourage.

Truth be told, if Chile had a drop of oil, it would belong to a Sate company. As is, their next best thing, Copper, as you rightly state has never been allowed to wander too far away from the State hands. Strange that fish meal, their other successful commodity has a lot more private involvement. Probably because it´s much less important and is only useful as chicken feed.



MGGS
User currently offlineDerico From Argentina, joined Dec 1999, 4276 posts, RR: 12
Reply 9, posted (2 years 17 hours ago) and read 2294 times:

That's my point. Look, I'm not defending CFK, she has in the last three months pissed of pretty much the entire world, one leader at a time. Mexico is mad about the auto imports Argentina wants to curve.

So I didn't mean to say I was blaming Mexico or the other countries.

The problem here is Argentina's model of not taking in any debt has required both a fiscal and trade surplus, this is what has kept Argentina totally insulated from the world's economic crisis in terms of capital markets (not totally insulated in the macroeconomic sense of course), and thus from having to tap international markets.

Because Argentina's internal inflation rate and wage increases mean Argentina's nominal GDP has soared in the last 4 years, the country's buying power has increased a lot in dollar terms. That means imports become much cheaper and that erodes the trade surplus. That's where all these import-export schemes have their origin.

If there is one thing I do admire of the government it has been their staunch holding on to the "debt lowering" model. But that is no longer sustainable, it hasn't for a couple of years beause it now costs mor to keep the model intact than the benefits it provides. They did bring debt to GDP from 140% to 45% (and the default only accounted for half of that). It's time to change, but I don't think they will until it is out of their hands and reality forces them to abruptly make adjustments.



My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
User currently offlinezkojq From New Zealand, joined Sep 2011, 1060 posts, RR: 1
Reply 10, posted (2 years 17 hours ago) and read 2281 times:

Did anyone else notice how The Economist recently excluded their official economic statistics (done by INDEC) from their indicators? The official statistics from INDEC are substantially lower than estimates done by other financial institutions which probably indicated government intervention.
http://www.economist.com/node/21548242
http://www.economist.com/node/21548229

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 5):
In addition to the ongoing economic issues, Argentina is embarassing itself on the world stage by focusing diplomatically on the lost cause of trying to re-claim British territory (the Falklands).

Speaking of which:
http://www.aljazeera.com/news/americas/2012/04/201241517107911574.html



repaint ZK-PBG!
User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8201 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (2 years 6 hours ago) and read 2161 times:

It seems like the Argentinian people do not have the maturity to run a modern economy. So maybe they will enjoy being peasants. They were once the richest country per capita in the world -- so, I'm not talking *down* to them. Just being critical.

User currently offlineCometII From United States of America, joined Dec 1999, 297 posts, RR: 0
Reply 12, posted (2 years 5 hours ago) and read 2125 times:

In the late 19th and early 20th century Argentina had a per capita that had surpassed Germany, France, Canada, and Australia. In a period it was the world's highest. The Argentine gold peso was one of the world's most trade and sought out currencies. The debate at the time was how an eventual confrontation between the "Provinces of the South America" and the United States of America for dominance of the Americas would play out.

I'm not as pessimistic however. I would remind people that at least the Argentines have shown to have such potential because they achieved it. So I don't see why with 20 years of solid growth and management they could once again be one of the richest nations in the world. Look at the miracles in Germany, Italy, France, Japan, South Korea, or even Spain. In fact look at Chile or Uruguay next door.

It's just a matter of long term policies being set in place. Argentina still has the resources, the skilled population (here in the USA Argentines are generally well-educated people, much more than the average immigrant), and the internal market. It has minerals, top-notch agriculture, and an industrial base. I don't see why they will not once again be one of the world's top countries if things are done mediumly right.


User currently offlineJJJ From Spain, joined May 2006, 1718 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (2 years 3 hours ago) and read 2080 times:

Quoting Derico (Reply 7):
I don't endorse any maneuver that involves the forceful transfer of assets from private to state. HOWEVER, I find it a bit hypocritical that all the countries denouncing the move, have nationalized companies: Codelco in Chile, Petrobras in Brazil, PEMEX in Mexico, and of course several in Europe. So unless Gonzalo is suggesting Codelco or Petrobras have failed catastrophically... I sense there is a bit of argie bashing foisted alongside genuine criticism, since we know Argentina is not the most liked of countries in Latin America and other parts of the world.

When have Codelco, Petrobras or Pemex been privatized and then forcibly nationalized again?

If you want to draw parallels to some other South American country try Chavez's Venezuela.


User currently onlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8201 posts, RR: 3
Reply 14, posted (2 years 3 hours ago) and read 2079 times:

Quoting CometII (Reply 12):
It's just a matter of long term policies being set in place.

Nationalizing oil companies is a long term policy. The policy is, don't do business in my country, and don't employ people.


User currently offline757gb From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 676 posts, RR: 1
Reply 15, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 21 hours ago) and read 1999 times:

Quoting yyz717 (Reply 5):
The future belongs to Chile and Brazil (and perhaps Uruguay)

I wish you were right, but I doubt it in the case of Uruguay... we're just too dependent and if Argentina goes down we go down. Nobody has made a serious effort to change that dependency (if at all possible).



God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 6942 posts, RR: 18
Reply 16, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1963 times:

Quoting Aeroflot001 (Reply 1):
Some people I know have even mentioned saying that it would not be so bad going back to the "good old days" of the military state though that seems quite extreme...

The last thing anybody in my country (USA) and my associate country (Japan) wanna see is another dictatorship. Given the Arab spring and the failure of US foreign policy of the 70s (of course, debatable,) it would do more harm than good.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 3):
It seems that La Cretina is under strong Chavez influence.

I seriously and honestly question what this guy's motives are. He seems to be against anything that the US does, even if it is positive, and seems to want a reciprocal value. I hope that he doesn't start doing anything too brash, because the last thing we need is (god hope not) a war or military conflict over something trivial.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently onlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5942 posts, RR: 30
Reply 17, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 1961 times:
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Quoting PHX787 (Reply 16):
I hope that he doesn't start doing anything too brash, because the last thing we need is (god hope not) a war or military conflict over something trivial.

He´ll probably be gone and pushing daisies in less than six months. That will break up this ridiculous and populist "Bolivarian" axis he´s created, will probably put Venezuela in the road to be a country with the impressive achievements Colombia has reached and will isolate Cristina. I doubt she´ll last her term. The pots and pans are stirring.



MGGS
User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13044 posts, RR: 78
Reply 18, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 1926 times:

This piece is mainly about that dispute Argentina has with the UK - not the subject of this thread I know, however it also expands on to the wider issues including economic and diplomatic with other nations, though it was written before this nationalisation of the oil company, including ;

There are plenty of other irritants.

Last year, when Argentina's trade surplus dropped by 11%, the government introduced a complicated system of import restrictions.

On Friday, 40 countries - including the US, the European Union nations and Japan - attacked Argentina angrily at the World Trade Organisation.

Like Bolivia and Venezuela, Argentina has now cut its links with US policy on drug control, forcing the American Drug Enforcement Administration to leave the country.


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-17576856


User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1950 posts, RR: 2
Reply 19, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1831 times:

Ufff... sadly this Wall Street Journal article shows how a very significant part of the world think about Argentina today :



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
User currently offlineGonzalo From Chile, joined Aug 2005, 1950 posts, RR: 2
Reply 20, posted (1 year 12 months 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1826 times:

Don't know why but the link was erased form the previous post.

http://www.lanacion.com.ar/1466077-d...-journal-sobre-el-modelo-argentino


G.



80 Knots...V1...Rotate...Gear Up...DC-3 / EMB-110 / Fairchild-227 / Ab318-19-20 / B732 / B763
User currently offlineDerico From Argentina, joined Dec 1999, 4276 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (1 year 12 months 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 1789 times:

Quoting GDB (Reply 18):
Like Bolivia and Venezuela, Argentina has now cut its links with US policy on drug control, forcing the American Drug Enforcement Administration to leave the country.

Is this a bad thing? US drug control is an oxymoron. No disrespect, just facts.

As for the WTO thing, while I don't like the Argentina import/export quotas, how are they any different from the price-based protectionism those "40" countries engage in? Everyone knows the EU, USA, and Japan are the most protectionist nations in the world. The reason it is not evident in actual protectionist measures is because the policies these countries engage in destroy competition in emerging markets, so there is no need to pursue draconic protection when you simply drive your competitors out of business. Ask the Mexican corn growers.

[Edited 2012-04-18 16:48:03]


My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13044 posts, RR: 78
Reply 22, posted (1 year 12 months 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 1738 times:

Quoting Derico (Reply 21):
Is this a bad thing? US drug control is an oxymoron. No disrespect, just facts.

Maybe, but doing it along with Venezuela isn't going to win any friends. Columbia and Mexico have similar concerns - and you can see why with those two on that subject - but they are not just unilaterally pulling out.

It all smacks of gesture politics, for internal consumption.


User currently onlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 5942 posts, RR: 30
Reply 23, posted (1 year 12 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1725 times:
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Quoting GDB (Reply 22):
Columbia and Mexico have similar concerns - and you can see why with those two on that subject - but they are not just unilaterally pulling out.

Wrong. The US will probably find itself isolated in this issue here. Sooner or later, and as long as our Executive branch becomes less and less influential in the country´s affairs, Mexico will embark on a serious exploration of changing the entire drug enforcement paradigm. From Colombia to Mexico, the deaths generated in drug trafficking enforcement policies are much more than the deaths on the US through drug consumption. So unless the US starts to seriously take steps to stop consumption, Latin America will soon take its own measures on the matter. Legalization being the most logical measure.

The way things are now, it´s likely we´ll follow in the steps of other nations in the region pretty soon.



MGGS
User currently offlineDerico From Argentina, joined Dec 1999, 4276 posts, RR: 12
Reply 24, posted (1 year 12 months 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1694 times:

Quoting GDB (Reply 22):
Maybe, but doing it along with Venezuela isn't going to win any friends. Columbia and Mexico have similar concerns - and you can see why with those two on that subject - but they are not just unilaterally pulling out.

It all smacks of gesture politics, for internal consumption.

First of all why should Argentina or any country submit to any foreign agency? Americans would never accept that.

Second, Argentina has virtually nothing to do with the USA's drug problem. We don't produce drugs (even the USA produces much more both planted and synthetic), we are negligible as a geographic middle-man (the only issue here is some trade to Europe), and a lot of the drugs that come into Argentina are for internal consumption. We are a consuming nation as much if not more than a traffficking area.

The Americans, nor any nation in the history of the world since ancient times, have been able to ban consumption by criminalization. People confuse criminalizing behavior vs consumption. The former is far more doable, because behavior does not necessarily involve self-satisfaction, enjoyment, or of course addiction. So it is much easier to pass laws against behavior (do not steal, do not kill), and to see people abide by them. It is trully futile to do anything about the latter.



My internet was not shut down, the internet has shut me down
25 Gonzalo : While I recognize that some of the Argentine media sources are extremely critic against the government ( like Clarin or La Nacion ) and they are not p
26 Derico : Good luck finding an impartial news organization anywhere in the world. There just isn't any. Having learned a couple of languages I can tell you tha
27 GDB : I'm not unsympathetic to their views, or others in that region, on the 'front line' of these problems. Neither in fact are many politicians in Europe
28 Post contains links JJJ : Looks like quite a desperate move to shift the Argentines attention away from their own problems. The price to pay might be a little too much, though
29 viaggiare : Can't blame it all on Chavez.. Argentina's long, proud history of screwing up its own economy started well before him.
30 Post contains links Gonzalo : Another very hard piece of the Washington Post against CFK and her policies. They even propose the expulsion of Argentina off the G-20 and suggest Chi
31 Derico : Gonzalo, So what is your involvement here? You are the OP, you asked for opinions, you keep providing news links, but what's in it for you? We'd be in
32 AR385 : I don´t understand your agenda here, Gonzalo. You seem to want to bash Argentina in every thread you start. Latest example, this thread. You don´t
33 Post contains images CamiloA380 : Wont spend too much time typing here but ... Exactly... but.... Simple, nobody has because: 1. It's impossible, or damn near impossible. 2. It would b
34 Derico : I agree however this is partly because Cristina has benn goading most of the world recently (Mercosur, other Latin countries in trade measures), the
35 AR385 : Besides, you have all that Argentine money in foreign currency in your banks, which I am sure it has boosted the strength of your financial system an
36 Pyrex : Chile should be in the G20 simply because they frequently are pioneers with economic reforms that eventually will need to be implemented by all "deve
37 Gonzalo : Pyrex, you already explained very well my reasons to open this thread. All I can add to your words is, I have not any "agenda", like some are saying
38 Gonzalo : For all of you that want to reach a better understanding of the whole YPF thing, I highly recommend to you to read this letter, sent by Senator Maria
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