PHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 4947 posts, RR: 15 Posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1646 times:
Well given the recent events with the Turkish F-4 getting shot down (this may have been discussed in the military forum), Turkey has been in consultations with NATO about what to do about it. As you know, a CASA search plane was also fired upon, and both incidents happened in international waters.
Questions to discuss:
Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?
Should the US get involved (maybe selling more advanced aircraft to Turkey?)
Would Turkish intervention resolve the Syrian conflict or cause more destruction (beyond typical wartime destruction)
What should the UN do about this?
With Putin visiting Israel, is this a sign that Russia might let the UNSC do something about the situation there?
Turkish members, please fill me in on what the news is saying there. My close friend usually keeps me clued in on this, but she's busy studying for medical exams.
moo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3596 posts, RR: 4 Reply 1, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 1618 times:
The evidence as being reported has the Turkish F-4 being shot down by anti aircraft gunfire and not missiles, so we are talking short range, placing the jet squarely within Syrian airspace - Syria had every right to defend itself. From what I have also read, Turkey didn't contact Syria until after the second aircraft was shot at, so Syria was still in the dark as to what's going on.
It does seem that with all the NATO article 4 and 5 talk going on that someone is attempting to make enough bluster out of this to take action against Syria, when currently the evidence puts Turkey in the wrong. If Turkey attacks Syria, and if NATO supports them, then it will be a war based on an excuse and not a decent foundation.
MD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 13334 posts, RR: 64 Reply 2, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 1600 times:
Something doesn´t add up there. Today AA guns are only used for extreme shortrange protection against low flying aircraft at a range of maximum of about 5 km. The usual calibre is 20-40 mm in a fully auto configuration. The WW2 heavy AA guns (like the British 3.7" gun or the German 88mm gun or their Soviet counterparts) have long been replaced by missiles because they can´t follow a fast jet.
The RF-4 reconnaisance aircraft on the other hand is usually flown at high altitude to take pictures, far out of range of these light AA guns.
It is also claimed that the aircraft crashed over the sea.
moo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3596 posts, RR: 4 Reply 3, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1562 times:
Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 2): Something doesn´t add up there. Today AA guns are only used for extreme shortrange protection against low flying aircraft at a range of maximum of about 5 km. The usual calibre is 20-40 mm in a fully auto configuration. The WW2 heavy AA guns (like the British 3.7" gun or the German 88mm gun or their Soviet counterparts) have long been replaced by missiles because they can´t follow a fast jet.
Syria is claiming it fired on the aircraft while it was about 1km from the coast, and the plane subsequently crashed 10km out.
The BBC has a map with the Syrian account plotted on it, including the alleged path of the aircraft.
moo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3596 posts, RR: 4 Reply 6, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 1517 times:
Quoting stealthz (Reply 5): They fired Missiles and guns(allegedly) at 2 aircraft but they needed to be called by Turkey to know what was going on???
Not saying Turkey is a totally innocent party here but I am pretty sure Syria knew what it was shooting at.
Lets look at the bigger picture - Syrias government knows the west doesn't like it, they know the west wants to replace it, they know the west has taken action many times over the past 25 years to that effect in other countries.
They also know that there is fast flying aircraft invading its airspace, carrying out manouevers. They know they dont have any aircraft in the area.
Syria knew what it was firing at - an aircraft that was violating its airspace. Under the circumstances of international tensions, it doesn't need to know anything else before taking action.
Firstly, the Turkish aircraft should not have been in Syrian airspace. Secondly, if Turkey was going to send further aircraft in after it, then they most certainly should be telling Syria whats going on - you don't have the right to just send aircraft into another countries territory, regardless of the reason. If its a rescue mission, they should be telling Syria before doing it.
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3251 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1482 times:
On this matter specifically, nothing at this point. If there is new evidence of attempted identification or differing locations , maybe it can be revisited.
Turkey has had a recent history of encouraging and engaging in risky behavior with it's neighbors that have resulted in serious repercussions.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
einsteinboricua From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2010, 2043 posts, RR: 6 Reply 8, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1461 times:
Turkey did not invoke Article 5 (the all for one and one for all clause) so for the time being a NATO military conflict is ruled out. Some things are still hazy however. Was this deliberate to provoke Syria and attempt to invade? Was it just an accident as Turkey claims to be?
"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
starbuk7 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 590 posts, RR: 5 Reply 9, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1442 times:
Quoting moo (Reply 6): Lets look at the bigger picture - Syrias government knows the west doesn't like it, they know the west wants to replace it, they know the west has taken action many times over the past 25 years to that effect in other countries.
They also know that there is fast flying aircraft invading its airspace, carrying out manouevers. They know they dont have any aircraft in the area.
When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?
Neither party here is innocent but I will put the major blame on Syria.
9MMPQ From Netherlands, joined Nov 2011, 243 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 1419 times:
Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter): Will Turkey/SHOULD Turkey go to war with Syria?
No they won't, there's unfortunately little to gain and politically a lot to loose. They certainly won't go in without,at the very least, the political backing of their Western & NATO allies. Should they ? Well, i think it's a pretty sorry state that the UN has spoken of a civil war & the nations are sitting around the sidelines waving around their embargoes. Obviously it isn't just a Turkish concern but i don't see anyone step up to the plate with any further serious action.
Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter): Should the US get involved (maybe selling more advanced aircraft to Turkey?)
See above for part of what i think .. selling more hardware to Turkey won't do anything either, their current inventory will do them just fine if things were to seriously kick off.
Quoting PHX787 (Thread starter): Would Turkish intervention resolve the Syrian conflict or cause more destruction (beyond typical wartime destruction)
Serious intervention, perhaps, but nobody will be getting themselves into a situation like this anytime soon.
moo From Falkland Islands, joined May 2007, 3596 posts, RR: 4 Reply 11, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 1419 times:
Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9): When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?
What makes you think they had a confirmed visual ID of the aircraft type?
Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9): Neither party here is innocent but I will put the major blame on Syria.
Of course you would. Airspace allegedly gets violated, an aircraft gets shot down, lets not blame the alleged violator shall we...
moose135 From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2009 posts, RR: 12 Reply 12, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 1414 times:
Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9): When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's? I worked on them in the Navy and the list time we were flying them was in the late 1980's, so why would they think it was the west?
The US military wasn't the only Phantom operator. While we haven't used Phantoms in a while - well, except for the drones - but just in the region, Germany, Turkey, Greece, Egypt, and Iran all currently use the F-4.
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5290 posts, RR: 48 Reply 13, posted (10 months 3 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1345 times:
Let's be fair here, the US would do mostly the same thing...
We can detect aircraft many miles out and would intercept that aircraft with our own fighters... if the mystery aircraft acts too suspicious and does not turn around, we'd blow it out of the sky.
Syria does not have the technology (I don't think) to intercept like we do, so they skipped to the shoot down phase, something I think the US would do with Syria's technology. I have not seen an article yet but it seems as if Turkey provoked/accidentally provoked Syria... what were they doing anyway?
PHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 4947 posts, RR: 15 Reply 14, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1250 times:
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 13): Syria does not have the technology (I don't think) to intercept like we do, so they skipped to the shoot down phase, something I think the US would do with Syria's technology. I have not seen an article yet but it seems as if Turkey provoked/accidentally provoked Syria... what were they doing anyway?
I think that maybe Turkey was doing recon on refugees coming over the border. My friend will probably enlighten me more about it tomorrow after her exam.
prebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6016 posts, RR: 55 Reply 16, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1218 times:
Quoting moo (Reply 11): What makes you think they had a confirmed visual ID of the aircraft type?
They had it on radar from shortly after takeoff.
Within shooting range the Phantom is easily identified even without binoculars.
Even with clouds the very special sound of those J79 engines gives it away, and radar guided guns would take it down. But I don't think it was overcast - clouds are rare in that region at this time of the year.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5290 posts, RR: 48 Reply 17, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1209 times:
Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 16): Within shooting range the Phantom is easily identified even without binoculars.
So identifying it as an F-4 (a fighter version?) would make Syria NOT want to shoot it down? If anything, Syria positively identifying it as an F-4 justifies shooting it down. Am I wrong?
They probably can't do much because:
1) The Turkish jet was in Syrian Airspace. Whether intentionally or not, it is the PIC's responsibility to know the aircraft's exact location. Anyway, since when did F4s become 'reconnaissance planes'?
2) Russia and China have been pretty consistent with their Security Council vetos, so any UN action will probably be pointless.
mham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3001 posts, RR: 3 Reply 19, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1186 times:
Quoting zkojq (Reply 18): No, the US should stay out of the Middle East and keep to its own back yard for once. This is a problem for Europe and the Arab world to deal with.
I don't know why Europe should be so sacrosanct. If not for the incredibly arrogant way several European countries divided up the Middle East and Africa, there wouldn't be half the problems in the world today.
AR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 4842 posts, RR: 28 Reply 20, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1174 times:
Syria is headed for a Kadaffi like finale. Worse, if Asma doesn´t make it out of there, it´s going to be a Ceausescu-like finale. Wether Turkey was provoking them or not, or wether the UN has their hands tied because of Russia and China is at this point pretty irrelevant. I think it´s just a matter of weeks. Combat is already taking place in the outskirts of Damascus.
I don´t see why any Western nation needs to get involved at this point. It will be over soon. More to the point, the West needs to start worrying about what will happen afterwards, and what type of government ends up ruling Syria.
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5290 posts, RR: 48 Reply 22, posted (10 months 3 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 1097 times:
Don't forget though that Russia has a big naval base (its only one in the Mediterranean Sea) and is making a killing off selling weapons to Syria. That is going to complicate things...
prebennorholm From Denmark, joined Mar 2000, 6016 posts, RR: 55 Reply 24, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 1057 times:
Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 21): Quoting prebennorholm (Reply 16):
Even with clouds the very special sound of those J79 engines gives it away.
And the lovely "smoke trails" from those J-79's are visible from a distance as well.
Yes, but Syrian MiG planes deliver just as beautiful smoke trails. So for identification alone.... the smoke trail alone wouldn't help identify friend or foe.
Always keep your number of landings equal to your number of take-offs, Preben Norholm
Aesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 4777 posts, RR: 9 Reply 25, posted (10 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 1014 times:
Quoting starbuk7 (Reply 9): When is the last time the WEST flew F-4's?
Well, Turkey is part of NATO. And for some reason, the US, be it with a republican or democrat at the helm, is really pushing for the entry of Turkey in the EU, so it must be part of the west.
Quoting zkojq (Reply 18): Not directly but it might be worth arming the Syrian rebels.
Turkey has been doing that for a long time ! In fact it wouldn't surprise me if the US was involved, too. The goal being to replace the current Iranian puppet with a western puppet. You can see why the Russians wouldn't want that to happen.
New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
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