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Poll: Romey Favorability "Underwater"  
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12938 posts, RR: 25
Posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 2214 times:

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-puts-mitt...ney-deep-end-132647412.html?_esi=1 says:

Quote:

ABC News-Washington Post Poll:
- Obama is seen favorably by 53 percent of American adults and unfavorably by 43 percent.
- 40 percent of Americans view Romney favorably while 49 percent unfavorably
- Romney has been "underwater" (more unfavorable than favorable) in 10 consecutive polls this year
- Romney's favorables have ticked up by 7 percentage points this year
- But in the same time his unfavorable score is up more than double that: 18 points

With regard to independents, Romney may be in trouble because Obama's gained back ground he'd lost:
- In late May Obama fell numerically underwater among independents for the first time since December (45-52 percent favorable-unfavorable).
- Now, Obama is back far in front of Romney in this group, largely because of gains among independent women.
- Among all independents, Obama's favorability rating is now 16 points higher than Romney's (53 percent vs. 37 percent)
- Among independents who are registered to vote it is 46 percent favorable for Obama, 38 percent for Romney

"Mitt Romney is laboring under the lowest personal popularity ratings for a presumptive presidential nominee in midsummer election-year polls back to 1984," according to ABC News Pollster Gary Langer.


That would mean he's doing worse than McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, GHWB (2nd run) and Dukakis!

You have to go all the way back to Mondale's run against the very popular Ronald Reagan in 1984 to find someone with lower personal popularity ratings at this time in the race!

Seems Mitt is losing traction as he goes.

Also seems his next real chance to shake things up is with his VP choice.

Seems that too will be a no-win: current speculation says that he will probably pick a mainstream dude that the Tea Party and red meat Republicans will find too liberal and independents will find too boring.

One such analysis: http://news.yahoo.com/romneys-vp-pic...ng-white-guy-104000458.html?_esi=1

Seems his best move would be to find an intelligent and engaging conservative female from a battleground state who has the qualifications to be VP, but I can't think of anyone who ticks all those boxes.


Inspiration, move me brightly!
44 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinesrbmod From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2187 times:

Mitt is his own worst enemy........

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
Seems that too will be a no-win: current speculation says that he will probably pick a mainstream dude that the Tea Party and red meat Republicans will find too liberal and independents will find too boring.

If that happens, that helps Obama even more and quite possibly helps the Libertarian candidate, former New Mexico Governor Gary Johnson (who briefly ran for President as a Republican) who is trying to get his poll numbers high enough to be included in the debates (although more than likely, the debates will continue to exclude third party candidates even though there are those on the ballot in 50 states or are on the ballot in enough states to theoretically win).


User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8193 posts, RR: 54
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2184 times:

I know the Jesus-guns-AIPAC crowd will go nuts when it happens, cos they make so much (ugly, unconstructive) noise they think they're actually a majority, but Obama has a second term in the bag. They say never (mis)underestimate the American public, but there's no way Romney can win this.


fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7978 posts, RR: 51
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 2173 times:

In the end, these numbers really don't matter. What matters is the numbers in the battleground states which the President has an edge on. It's a lot closer than people think though, and I looked at the numbers the other day, but I think it was only 4 states that were +2% for the President that could potentially dip down to +% for Romney and he would win the election. Depending on Romney's VP choice, something great Romney does (doubtful,) or a major goof for the President, it may push these states over the edge.

I still think the President will win in November, but it's not as drastic as some of the numbers you posted...



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineAirframeAS From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 14150 posts, RR: 24
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2123 times:

A little off topic but why hasn't Romney chosen his VP pick yet? Seems like he's getting a little late into the game here..... The election is less than three months away.


A Safe Flight Begins With Quality Maintenance On The Ground.
User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6674 posts, RR: 6
Reply 5, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2111 times:
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Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 4):
A little off topic but why hasn't Romney chosen his VP pick yet? Seems like he's getting a little late into the game here..... The election is less than three months away.

I read some news articles that suggested that he could not make announcement because his wife was unavailable. She was watching their tax deduction, horse - sorry   compete in the Olympics.

And, when was the last time a VP was announced without the Presidential Candidates wife by his side?

I think its coming soon, the Obama campaign ruffled some feathers about potential VP picks today. They probably have a feel that is gonna happen soon

http://www.washingtonpost.com/nation...-11e1-89f7-76e23a982d06_story.html



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineGuitrThree From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 2059 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2075 times:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
That would mean he's doing worse than McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, GHWB (2nd run) and Dukakis!

And all the exit polls had Bush losing to Kerry in 2004. Please move on to something more relevant and provable than a poll lead by two left leaning organizations.
I for one will believe only one thing. The Election results in November. I suggest you do the same.



As Seen On FlightRadar24! Radar ==> F-KBNA5
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4789 posts, RR: 3
Reply 7, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2065 times:

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
That would mean he's doing worse than McCain, Kerry, Gore, Dole, GHWB (2nd run) and Dukakis!

And all the exit polls had Bush losing to Kerry in 2004

But don't you see the correlations to Kerry. Mitt and Kerry both were the moderate choices from Mass .

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
I for one will believe only one thing. The Election results in November

And of course everyone will believe those. However the point of the issue, is that the GOP did just about as bad a job picking an oponent for Obama as the Democrats did in 2004 against Bush. I don;t think Mitt's popularity is going to get any higher



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineJetsgo From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3086 posts, RR: 5
Reply 8, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2046 times:

I've said it before, and I'll say it again. It will be Romney's loss, not Obama's win.


Marine Corps Aviation, The Last To Let You Down!
User currently onlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15831 posts, RR: 27
Reply 9, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2024 times:

Quoting Jetsgo (Reply 8):
I've said it before, and I'll say it again. It will be Romney's loss, not Obama's win.

I doubt anyone will care. Obama is certainly beatable, but it's far easier to get away with being Jimmy Carter when there's no Reagan waiting in the wings.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlinewingman From Seychelles, joined May 1999, 2337 posts, RR: 5
Reply 10, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2024 times:

Fox News had a poll indicating these results today and last time I checked they were further right than the Falange Espanol. Whatever, at the end of the day what does the choice really come down to? One party blows the national wad on war and the other blows it on poor people. Taxes stay the same and gun rights remain intact. So it just really boils down to whether you prefer insuring more Americans or bombing the fuck out of foreigners.

User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20335 posts, RR: 59
Reply 11, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2017 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 3):
I still think the President will win in November, but it's not as drastic as some of the numbers you posted...

I think the popular vote will be more impressive than the electoral vote.

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 4):

A little off topic but why hasn't Romney chosen his VP pick yet? Seems like he's getting a little late into the game here..... The election is less than three months away.

McCain announced Palin around Labor Day. That's the typical timeframe. I remember I was at Burning Man when I heard. "McCain picked a woman for VP. A hot woman!" People were very worried about what she might do for the female vote. And then that hot woman started opening her mouth...

And believe it or not, speaking of Mrs. Palin, Mr. Romney's favorability is LOWER than hers. Now, that takes some serious doing!

Quoting casinterest (Reply 7):
And of course everyone will believe those.

I will make a prediction now that --given that Obama wins-- the next "Birther" conspiracy will be the "Election" conspiracy claiming that Obama rigged the election.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12938 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2012 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 5):
I read some news articles that suggested that he could not make announcement because his wife was unavailable. She was watching their tax deduction, horse - sorry compete in the Olympics.

And, when was the last time a VP was announced without the Presidential Candidates wife by his side?

I think its coming soon, the Obama campaign ruffled some feathers about potential VP picks today. They probably have a feel that is gonna happen soon

Interesting how the article ends with:

Quote:

Ann Romney, the candidate’s wife who just returned from watching her horse compete at the Olympic Games in London, added to the suspense Thursday with an email telling backers “I can’t wait” to help introduce “the other half of America’s Comeback Team.”

I didn't know that Romney had publicly positioned himself as the underdog. It wasn't that long ago that he was trying to act all "presidential" to try to make it look like he was/is a natural for the job and had the victory all but wrapped up.

Quoting GuitrThree (Reply 6):
Please move on to something more relevant and provable than a poll lead by two left leaning organizations.

I'm OK with what I put out there, but if it makes you feel better, here's something from the not-left-leaning Fox News:

Quote:

Mitt Romney has had a tough couple of weeks on the campaign trail -- and it shows in the latest Fox News poll. After a barrage of campaign ads, negative news coverage of his overseas trip and ongoing talk about his tax returns, Romney’s favorable rating and standing in the trial ballot have declined. As a result, President Obama has opened his biggest lead since Romney became the presumptive Republican nominee.

The president would take 49 percent of the vote compared to Romney's 40 percent in a head-to-head matchup if the election were held today, the poll found. Last month, Obama had a four percentage-point edge of 45 percent to 41 percent. This marks the second time this year the president has had a lead outside the poll’s margin of sampling error.

Obama’s advantage comes largely from increased support among independents, who now pick him over Romney by 11 percentage points. Some 30 percent of independents are undecided. Last month, Obama had a four-point edge among independents, while Romney had the advantage from April through early June.

There was also an uptick in support for Obama among women, blacks and Democrats.

Ref: http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...ead-grows-as-romney-support-slips/

Quoting casinterest (Reply 7):
However the point of the issue, is that the GOP did just about as bad a job picking an oponent for Obama as the Democrats did in 2004 against Bush. I don;t think Mitt's popularity is going to get any higher


GOPers really haven't gotten past their 'big tent' issue: milque-toast Mitt is too establishment for the rah-rah Tea Party types, and the establishment GOPers still control the flow of money, not the Tea Partiers, and no one emerged from the primaries that would be interesting to the independents.

GOPers are definitely "anybody but Obama" voters, but it seems Mitt is not getting it done with the independents.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinejetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2837 posts, RR: 4
Reply 13, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 2006 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW
HEAD MODERATOR

I think polling is the worst thing to ever happen to political elections. They can be skewed any way you want them. And that goes for both sides. This election for me it is really about who I can't stand less. I'm not an Obama fan at all. I don't agree with him on much and I think he has done a few things wrong. But at the same time when I look at Romney he doesn't look like a president. I can't believe that with all the people in the republican party they couldn't find someone better than this clown. The only real positive I can see with electing Romney is his business experience might bring some confidence in small businesses. But even that can be a crap shoot. Neither are going to be able to do anything with congress. Because even when someone controls it they can't seem to do anything right. It's disappointing to watch as a citizen. We've been in a funk and I hope someone can break it.
Blue



All of the opinions stated above are mine and do not represent Airliners.net or my employer unless otherwise stated.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20335 posts, RR: 59
Reply 14, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1999 times:

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 13):

I think polling is the worst thing to ever happen to political elections. They can be skewed any way you want them.

Then why does Fox still show Obama winning?

Quoting jetblueguy22 (Reply 13):
I can't believe that with all the people in the republican party they couldn't find someone better than this clown.

I can. The behavior and politics of the GOP of late have been so wildly irrational that they can't find anyone competent to run.


User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5732 posts, RR: 6
Reply 15, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1931 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 14):

Then why does Fox still show Obama winning?

Reverse psychology?  



"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
User currently offlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 40066 posts, RR: 74
Reply 16, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1923 times:

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 4):
A little off topic but why hasn't Romney chosen his VP pick yet?

Why should he?

Quoting AirframeAS (Reply 4):
Seems like he's getting a little late into the game here.....

No he's not. The VP is chosen at the begining of the convention.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 11):
Mr. Romney's favorability is LOWER than hers. Now, that takes some serious doing!

Romney has been in the spotlight for a much longer time than Sarah Palin.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently onlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12872 posts, RR: 46
Reply 17, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1908 times:
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Quoting Jetsgo (Reply 8):
It will be Romney's loss,

You can't lose something you don't have.   



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana! #44cHAMpion
User currently offlinesimonriat From UK - England, joined Jul 2010, 138 posts, RR: 1
Reply 18, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 22 hours ago) and read 1889 times:

I pray Romney wins. Haven't had such a laugh since Bush 2.

Can you imagine Romney as president and Sarah Palin as VP? The material that those 2 would produce would be priceless oh and George makes a great return as foreign policy advisor.  


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10930 posts, RR: 37
Reply 19, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1865 times:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
Seems Mitt is losing traction as he goes.

I am not at all a "fan" of Barack Obama, yet I don't want to see a Mitt for President of the U.S. in the White House.
He seems too much of a war monger. He would hit Iran in no time and create havoc in the whole Middle East.

We don't need more war.

    



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12938 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 1852 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 16):
The VP is chosen at the begining of the convention.

Der Wiki says: "On August 29, the day after the Democratic Convention, John McCain introduced Sarah Palin in a speech at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.".

Of course the GOP Convention was not at Wright State University in Dayton, Ohio.

It was a case of trying to blunt any momentum BHO got from the Democratic Convention.

I can't think of a case in the modern era where the ticket wasn't known before the convention.

If nothing else, they want to have time to print all the signs and handouts before the convention.

I also think they want to give people time to accept the choice ahead of time. TV shots of stunned, angry and or/depressed convention goers is not what they want to have.

The last time I'm aware of the VP being chosen at the convention was JFK/LBJ. Clearly JFK didn't like LBJ much, but he was a necessary evil, chosen to get votes, not because JFK liked him.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinerandyh3253 From United States of America, joined Jan 2011, 67 posts, RR: 0
Reply 21, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 1824 times:

We're 3 months away from the election, and in Presidential politics that's a long time. Anything can still happen from this point. A new Rasmussen Report poll released Thursday actually has Romney up 47%-43%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...n/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Remember a few states are going to decide this for all of us and one thing we can't predict is voter turn out.


User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4789 posts, RR: 3
Reply 22, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1808 times:

Quoting randyh3253 (Reply 21):
We're 3 months away from the election, and in Presidential politics that's a long time. Anything can still happen from this point. A new Rasmussen Report poll released Thursday actually has Romney up 47%-43%.
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...n/daily_presidential_tracking_poll

Remember a few states are going to decide this for all of us and one thing we can't predict is voter turn out

Rasmussen is always a bit conservatively biased. Most pollsters do not like their polling techniques. Another issue when you watch it, is that they have a sliding 3 day window. It means that every day, this poll changes, and it changes a lot based on who they reach. Just this past week they had Obama up by 2.

I go by the ones on Real Clear Politics ,have have the aggregate including Rasmussen.

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo...election_romney_vs_obama-1171.html

Lot more polls for Obama. At this point though it is still early. Will have to wait and see . It is still a long election season, and both candidates can do a lot to advance and detract from themselves. Romney still has some big hurdles, and picking his VP is the highest hurdle.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineLonghornmaniac From United States of America, joined Jun 2005, 3355 posts, RR: 45
Reply 23, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 1796 times:

Nate Silver's fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com is probably one of the most comprehensive repositories of poll coverage I've seen. He did very, very well in predicting the 2008 election.

Cheers,
Cameron


User currently offlinesw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6371 posts, RR: 9
Reply 24, posted (2 years 4 months 1 week 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 1778 times:

Quoting simonriat (Reply 18):
Can you imagine Romney as president and Sarah Palin as VP?

But that would never happen. Palin is quite fine not having to do any actual work to be influential, and Romney isn't dumb enough to make the same mistake that McCain did.


25 Post contains images Revelation : Yes, he won't make that exact mistake.... Palin had the positives of being an engaging female much younger than McCain, which gave the ticket balance
26 LMP737 : My fear is that if Romney does not win the GOP will think they lost becasue he was not "conservative" enough and end up nominating a Santorum or Bachm
27 Post contains images comorin : I'm quite an addict of FiveThirtyEight! Nate is quite the master of analyzing data. While it does seem that it's over for Mitt, I m starting to feel
28 GEEZER : Tell me.........did you really expect to hear ABC News say ANYTHING good about Romney ? ( Or anyone else who is "conservative" ? ) All this talk abou
29 seb146 : I hate polls. All polls are a bunch of hooey. There is only one poll that counts. The one in November. That is the only one I pay attention to. And so
30 sw733 : I don't necesarilly think this is important. Cheney was (on paper) from Wyoming, which is the smallest of states, solid Republican and barely any ele
31 Revelation : Riiight, well, you may want to look at the things Fox News is saying. Just look for the stuff in yellow in #12 above. I won't inflict more pain by co
32 tommy767 : Polls are polls. Gallup has Obama at 47 and Rom at 45. The race is close, don't let these polls throw ya off. It will come down to the VP pick (conven
33 Post contains links randyh3253 : Thats exactly why I mentioned voter turn out in my post, we can not predict that and this go around Re Today Gallup has it all tied up at 46%. http:/
34 sw733 : That can pretty much be said for every election since 1960 though
35 Superfly : Obama picked Biden just before the convention began.
36 ER757 : Exactly - in most states one candidate has a large edge over the other and since it's winner take all in electoral vote, those states are already dec
37 jetblueguy22 : Maybe so they could come up with some story if he by some chance won that he came back, captivated the country, and took Obama out of office. Fox lov
38 Post contains images Ken777 : You can't even believe in the November Election. Gore beat Bush, but the Electoral College met later and made Bush President. So maybe Romney should
39 Post contains links randyh3253 : So much for hope and change... http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...w-new-obama-son-of-boss-attack-ad/
40 Aesma : And they would end up with another Clinton as president, imagine that ! We can agree on the downsides of polls, but you can't dismiss them, they play
41 Superfly : Nope. It would create a perfect storm that would allow a nut like Santorum or Bachman to win. If Obama get's a 2nd term, he will inherit the mess he
42 Revelation : And now we have Ryan, two weeks before the convention... Queue the response: "That came from some PAC that I know nothing about!"[Edited 2012-08-11 0
43 scbriml : Stupidity - I just received a nice email from someone called Ann Romney inviting me to "proudly display" a Romney-Ryan bumper sticker. WTF? Even if I
44 Superfly : No worries, Obama has the UK vote locked up.
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