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Israel - Attacks Iran Before The US Election?  
User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4896 posts, RR: 16
Posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4596 times:

I read an interesting piece on alternet about how Israel is likely to attack Iran in the next12 weeks (before the US election). The reason given is that neither candidate can afford to say anything against such an action at this time. I do hope this doesn't happen as we are all (including Islaelis) heartily sick of wars and need to move on with economic matters.

At a more cynical level, the article points out that a war with Iran would raise gas prices, and that would help Romney win.

Apologies if this has been discussed before, but I will do anything to avoid using that search engine.

http://www.alternet.org/world/get-re...ely-strike-iran-november-elections

My questions are:

Will this act be catastrophic to the region? What will the US and EU do?
Iran is a large country with 70 million people, and they already fought a sustained war with Iraq. Why would they fold?
How would neighboring countries react and who will they side with?

89 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8795 posts, RR: 24
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 4585 times:

If you look at the placement of our carriers, you have to wonder if something is up.

http://www.stratfor.com/sites/default/files/main/images/Naval_Update_08-15-12_2%20%281%29.jpg

We have no carriers in the Atlantic or Med (when was the last time that happened?). One in the Pacific doing workups for eventual deployment, and two in the Persian Gulf region. It will be interesting to find out where Nimitz heads off to once they are up to steam. If anything is to happen (assuming the US knows about it) it will before the Enterprise heads home (it's final mission before decommissioning), and after Nimitz arrives, giving a 3-carrier force.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4896 posts, RR: 16
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4577 times:

Dreadnought, thanks, very interesting picture! Would rising tensions in that region call for a Mediterranean presence?

User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4575 times:

Israel will attack some underground nuclear facilities, pound them for one week straight with various bombs and cruise missiles, and two years later, the Israeli PM will declare: "They are STILL working on nuclear weapons!"

The worst thing is a solution to the whole problem, as this would cause a serious headache in the politicians' minds. Israel has already struggled with the revolution in Egypt.



David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4570 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):

I think this amounts to a "baaah, if something botches up, it's your mess" adressed to Mr. Netanyahu. I hope this will make some Israeli warhawks sober.



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently onlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9181 posts, RR: 29
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 4524 times:

Looking at the chart, the US is not prepared for that. They'd need to deploy at least 2 carriers to the Mediterranean Sea. OK, that could be rather quick from Norfolk provided these convoys are ready to sail.

What could not go unnoticed is the assembly of KC135/KC10s . i doubt that israel could hit that with their own ressources and what I remember having seen at FRA, the huge line-up of support aircraft during the Balkan war, such a line-up would not go unnoticed. Israel could do a hit and run strike to neighbour Syria where the chief of the air foirce might still have been under the shower while the jets had been back on base in Israel, with the greater distance to Iran and the equipment they would need to destroy the facilities deep in the earth that would be too much to handle for them.

besides, Iran would retaliate with missiles and the Hezbollah in lebanon would strom the northern border. Israel has better means to pinch the Iranians and they shpould sit out the developments in syria. Without Assad Iran is pretty lonely.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineN537FX From Switzerland, joined Oct 2009, 113 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 4480 times:

Any israeli attack would be a big disaster, who knows if it could actually work. There seems to be a perception in Jerusalem that the US is not serous about a military option. Even if the US was serious, Israel would never out source their "security" to another country and when threatened, Israel will act no matter what.

Also consider the great distance Israel must travel to hit Iran. When Iran hits back at Israel, they have to go through these same hurdles and I'm not sure they have good enough power projection. They have a poor Air force, so all they can do is call up their proxies armed with fire crackers and Iran itself can launch their own missiles, some will be intercepted by Israel's advanced missile defenses.

So how well can Iran hit Israel? Iran wouldn't dare attack US targets or interests, they don't want to fight America. As a result, since they can't attack American targets, their response will be limited and just focused at Israel.


User currently offlineNoUFO From Germany, joined Apr 2001, 7943 posts, RR: 12
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4456 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):
We have no carriers in the Atlantic or Med (when was the last time that happened?).

If U.S. carriers are supposed to support Israel, why would you want them in the Med or Atlantic? Apparently, there are two carriers and an LPD in the Gulf of Oman and thus close to Iran.

A carrier close to Israel would achieve nothing - other than providing Assad with arguments that the rebellion in his country was driven by the U.S.



I support the right to arm bears
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4451 times:

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):
So how well can Iran hit Israel?

I recently thought of World War II's merchant raiders. Really low-tech, and could wreak some havoc. They would be really dumb if they had no plan to strike back at either Israel or the U.S. - even if it would take them some years to retaliate.


David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4896 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4444 times:

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):

Also, you cant attack a nation of 70m people and not kick up a hornet's nest...while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers, an attack would unite them, undoing years of Western foreign policy. I think this is a region where the US keeps the peace, and the nations there count on it.

I wonder what native-born Israelis make of this.


User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4426 times:

Quoting comorin (Reply 9):
while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers

The emphasis is on "can". The Iranians have a long and bitter history of having their rulers overthrown by western forces, or the country being occupied. One can look up the history of the AIOC, the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, the precursor to British Petroleum.

The current strategy called "if sanctions do not work, use tougher sanctions" will inevitably fail. Iran isn't in a position where it can lose anything (except its relations to China or Russia), and so we should give them something they are liable to lose again - like free access to any civilian-purpose goods.

If goods do not cross frontiers, soldiers will.



David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4510 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 4423 times:

Quoting NoUFO (Reply 7):
If U.S. carriers are supposed to support Israel, why would you want them in the Med or Atlantic? Apparently, there are two carriers and an LPD in the Gulf of Oman and thus close to Iran.

A carrier close to Israel would achieve nothing - other than providing Assad with arguments that the rebellion in his country was driven by the U.S.

The Carriers in the Gulf are there to support the Afghanistan Mission, and "courtesy patrols" of the Persian Gulf.


I don't think Israel would spefically decide based on an election to attack or not. The future ramifications would not be pleasent. However I do think Israel will attack at any time they see the opportunity,, or are provoked and will hopefully consult their allies prior to doing so



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8191 posts, RR: 8
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4399 times:

Regardless of what Israel might want to do, I believe that they have learned some lessons from our disastrous invasion of Iraq. The Bush/Cheney Administration thought it would a quick "war" with little cost. It turned into a 10 year farce with 40,000+ Purple Hearts awarded and more Americans killed than we lost in 9/11.

I believe that farce has had an impact on the leaders of Israel and, much as they might hate it, the price we paid may be a deterrent.

I certainly hope so.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19419 posts, RR: 58
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4379 times:

http://www.businessinsider.com/if-th...ke-nothing-ever-seen-before-2012-8

Just found this. No idea if any of it is true.

I am interested in the aftermath of such an attack.

1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr? I hope they wouldn't be that foolish. Bushehr is closer to Kuwait City, Riyadh, Manama, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Muscat than it is to Tehran.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 12):
Regardless of what Israel might want to do, I believe that they have learned some lessons from our disastrous invasion of Iraq. The Bush/Cheney Administration thought it would a quick "war" with little cost. It turned into a 10 year farce with 40,000+ Purple Hearts awarded and more Americans killed than we lost in 9/11.

The lesson to be taken is to do it the way that GHW Bush did it and not the way that GW Bush did it. Gulf I was a rapid strike that drove the Iraqis back from our ally. Gulf II was an attempt at "nation building." Remember that militaries do not build nations. Militaries exist to mess things up and break things (and to remind enemies that you have that ability). Much as diplomats make poor soldiers, weapons make poor construction tools.

If the Israelis attack, they will do a series of aerial and ballistic attacks. I very much doubt that they plan for a single pair of Israeli feet to touch Iranian soil. They want to set the Iranian nuclear program back by about two decades.


User currently offlineEL-AL From Israel, joined Oct 2001, 1295 posts, RR: 5
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 4380 times:

While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...he-landscape-of-geography-1.458802

At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.



"In our country, those who do not believe in miracles are irrational" - David Ben Gurion.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19419 posts, RR: 58
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4348 times:

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

There is a lot of talk. I doubt that they would make a nuclear strike against an ally of the largest nuclear power in the world.

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.

I certainly agree with that. But let us not forget that they don't have a bomb. Even if they have the plutonium and tritium for one, it takes a long time to build. Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.


User currently offlinetugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5438 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4346 times:

My thoughts are that Israel is trying the rattle the sabre as hard as possible to get everyone thinking that an attack is inevitable. I think they want to convince and embolden the militant fanatics within Iran (and their allies) to get them to attack in some way first (preemptively), to which they can respond decisively.

Not saying that Israel will not absolutely do on its own what it needs to do if it firmly believes it must do it but I also think they fully understand the politics of the whole issue too.

Tugg



I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7150 posts, RR: 3
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 4336 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 10):

If goods do not cross frontiers, soldiers will.

You should see the convoys of goods heading to Iran via Azerbaijan everyday, I've been pretty close to the border and seen them, hundreds of trucks everyday. More convoys go via Turkmenistan.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4318 times:

Israel attacking Iran- Right now, if they continue to have this standoff, it's pretty much inevitable.

USA's participation? Toss-up. I have no idea if they will or not.


I personally think that if the US wants to re-vamp industry they should begin arms sales to relevant parties involved in this potential war. Heavy weaponry, aircraft, fuel, etc



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7832 posts, RR: 52
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 4313 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

As much as Russia seems to support countries the US doesn't, I doubt Russia would attack Israel directly... that would invite a war with the US which I'm sure neither side wants. I could see Russia supplying Iran though. (Not gonna comment on which side would be right or wrong)

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

I think it would strengthen the Iranian government. I think the current strategy, at least from the US's side, is to wait until an Iran revolt takes place (one much stronger than the one a few years ago) and once we're sure the rebels will win, supply the rebels and do airstrikes similar to Libya. Not sure if that is what Israel wants (or even if that's what the US is doing.)

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

I don't think many Arab nations like Iran. They don't really like Israel either, so they might condemn Israel publicly but secretly want the demise of Iran (and/or Israel.)

Just my 2c. I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)  



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12411 posts, RR: 37
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4284 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I don't think many Arab nations like Iran. They don't really like Israel either, so they might condemn Israel publicly but secretly want the demise of Iran (and/or Israel.)

My thoughts exactly; recently, we've had the Saudis saying they would shoot down Israeli acft flying over their territory; my foot! They would view the destruction of the Iranian nuclear and military (and better still, political) infrastructure with no little amount of glee - same with all of the Arab Gulf states.

I'm not a military person, but I've always believed that if Israel attacks, it cannot be just an attack on nuclear facilites; it has to be a wide ranging attack, taking out their communications systems, command & control, as much of the political elite/ infrastructure as they can; basically, make sure that after the attack, Iran is insufficiently functioning as a viable entity to even think about responding. And of course, they need to make sure that they as prepared as possible for anything Hezbollah throws at them.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 18):
Israel attacking Iran- Right now, if they continue to have this standoff, it's pretty much inevitable.

It seems to me that, all of a sudden, the jungle drums have been banging a lot more loudly over the past week or so. I wonder if this might be because Israel has obtained new intelligence as to Iran's capability?


User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12407 posts, RR: 46
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4259 times:
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Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth.

No, you have a country 70 times larger than Israel with a slightly unhinged figurehead who makes ridiculous public statements about Israel.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12411 posts, RR: 37
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 4242 times:

Quoting scbriml (Reply 21):
No, you have a country 70 times larger than Israel with a slightly unhinged figurehead who makes ridiculous public statements about Israel.

In fairness, Khamenei is more than a figurehead - and that's not the kind of person you want to having the nuclear button at his fingertips. We need to understand the Israelis better. Virtually all Israelis of (continental) European descent will have had a relative who was lost to the holocaust; that must weigh very heavily on the Israeli psyche. I don't particularly like Netanyahu, but as PM of Israel, he has a responsibility to protect his country and his people and when they come across someone of this kind who makes aggressive and vitriolic comments about their country and the country they represents is developing the ability to develop nuclear weapons, then you make sure that this threat is challenged head on and if necessary, eradicated.

Let's also not forget that with Assad out of the way (not yet, but shortly), the political chessboard in the M/E changes and with no regional friends, Iran's need to have a nuclear weapon becomes all the more urgent.


User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4203 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 11):
I don't think Israel would spefically decide based on an election to attack or not. The future ramifications would not be pleasent. However I do think Israel will attack at any time they see the opportunity,, or are provoked and will hopefully consult their allies prior to doing so

I agree, and will ask a pointed question: would an Israeli attack actually achieve anything ? Iran is known to produce super-hard concrete (I've mentioned this before) which can withstand 40-50,000 psi shearing force. Normal concrete is about 11-12,000 and "reinforced" concrete perhaps 15,,000. Bury that under 30-50 metres of diret and would a bunker buster work ? Would a battlefield nuke work ? Good to know these thnigs before charging off with the light brigade.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):

1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Putin would have to think Israel would reply, perhasp with a "demonstration" nuclear event, in his own back yard. Once Israel started building their own gadgets and Jericho II missiles, that's when Russia started paying attention to Israel.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr?

I'm not at all sure the radioisotopes would be a big problem, there'd be bigger ones.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
If the Israelis attack, they will do a series of aerial and ballistic attacks. I very much doubt that they plan for a single pair of Israeli feet to touch Iranian soil. They want to set the Iranian nuclear program back by about two decades.

I've said before, if Iran wants nuclear weapons I think it's their sovereign right. Look at India and remains of Pakistan, sworn enemies, no first use. Having them actually imposes a form of discipline on your political class.

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what

"No matter what" - at ANY price ? And I believe an accurate translation of Khamenei's statement is more along the lines of "the Zionist entity will disappear". Perhaps he was referring to a one-state solution: Palestine.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
There is a lot of talk. I doubt that they would make a nuclear strike against an ally of the largest nuclear power in the world

  

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they have to waste one in a test.

Not any more. Look up "zero energy test".
This link may be useful: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_National_Security_Site

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they need a delivery system.

They've launched a couple of satellites ...

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

Israel and South Africa seem to have done one in the 70s. Still a debate about it.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I think it would strengthen the Iranian government

Me too. Easier to blame the foreign devils for you problems.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I wish Baroque was still with us...

Me too.  



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4201 times:

What worries me also is that the Israeli government has a strong belief in military action. But they have no plan B whatsoever in case the operation doesn't achieve its goals. Then, the UN, the US and the whole international community has to save Israels collective a$$es again.

We've seen it in 2006, the Lebanon war. The latest conflict in the Gaza strip. And the Turkish ship recently.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
I certainly agree with that. But let us not forget that they don't have a bomb. Even if they have the plutonium and tritium for one, it takes a long time to build. Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

Yes. I've read an estimate of 20 million $ to build one nuclear bomb, and it can be done quite clandestinely, but never mind radiation safety, proper engineering work, reliability, a delivery system, a testing series, and quite a few things more...

There are really more worrisome things in the world than Iran. Like homelessness and unemployment in Israel itself. This is killing people every day.

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 17):
You should see the convoys of goods heading to Iran via Azerbaijan everyday, I've been pretty close to the border and seen them, hundreds of trucks everyday. More convoys go via Turkmenistan.

Yes. Why drive Iran to do prosperous trade with Azerbaijan, Turkmenistan, not to mention China and Russia?

In the days before the revolution, El Al's most profitable flights were those to Tehran. At least that's what I've read here...



David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlineredflyer From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4315 posts, RR: 28
Reply 25, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4292 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Not a chance. Russia's leadership would not get involved directly in a Middle East conflict, and they would fear the backlash of their citizenry.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

Most citizens have a tendency to support their government when their homeland is attacked, in particular if it results in large numbers of civilian casualties. The Israeli's are aware of this and would take great pains to limit any chance of large-scale civilian casualties. If they can succeed, the Iranian regime could face a backlash from its population because then they would wonder why they squandered so many resources in this nuclear game that resulted in being humiliated by the Israeli's (that's assuming the Israeli's are successful).

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

In public, Jordan and Egypt would do a lot of saber rattling and condemnation. In private, they will be thrilled. Other than Syria, there are not too many countries in the region that like the current Iranian regime and are in fact terrified of their nuclear ambitions.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place.

That is the one thing the Israeli's will be very careful about. It would do no one, in particular them, any good if they contaminate wide swaths of territory with radiation. They will become hated throughout the world (more than they already are) with no chance of public redemption for generations to come. Look for any strikes to be targeted against infrastructure facilities and resources that support their nuclear program.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Remember that militaries do not build nations.

In general, that is a fairly accurate statement, but history will show that militaries have built nations in the past. Just look at the immediate post-war years in Japan and Germany. It was the military that kept order long enough for civilian rule to take root.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Militaries exist to mess things up and break things (and to remind enemies that you have that ability).

I love it when people make quotes like this. It's actually the politicians that mess things up and break them. The military is just another tool of a political ruling class. Without the decision of a politician, militaries have no orders to go off to war.



I'm not a racist...I hate Biden, too.
User currently offlineTheCol From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 2038 posts, RR: 6
Reply 26, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4281 times:

Highly unlikely. Netanyahu and Barak have a mountain of political and military opposition against a strike on Iran. Since Netanyahu is already in the dog house, this can be seen as a last ditch attempt to save his fragile coalition. Unlike most countries in the West, the people of Israel look to the wisdom and leadership of their military brass. If the IDF Generals continue to speak out against a strike on Iran, there won't be much support for it from the rest of the country.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 3):
Israel will attack some underground nuclear facilities, pound them for one week straight with various bombs and cruise missiles, and two years later, the Israeli PM will declare: "They are STILL working on nuclear weapons!"

WTF?

Where are you getting this from?

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Putin isn't that stupid. Russia has more to gain by sitting back and profiteering off the large scale regional conflict that would ensue.



No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12407 posts, RR: 46
Reply 27, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4314 times:
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Quoting kaitak (Reply 22):
In fairness, Khamenei is more than a figurehead

He is, but I was talking about Ahmadinejad!

Khamenei has actually done a good job in trying to keep Iran stable and, as far as I'm aware, has never made any public statements about Israel. Indeed, he even issued a fatwa saying the production of nuclear weapons was forbidden under Islam.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 28, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 4309 times:

Quoting TheCol (Reply 26):
WTF?

Where are you getting this from?

Anybody with half a brain can arrive at this conclusion. Time and again, Israel has said that a military operation will solve a specific "problem" for once and for all. Which didn't turn out as desired.

Hezbollah is still alive and well after the 2006 war. They just do not make the headlines now.



David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlineZANL188 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 3504 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 4288 times:
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Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they have to waste one in a test. Then they need a delivery system. And the good news there is that there is no way to do a clandestine nuclear explosion.

If their intent is truly to hit the Israelis why would they give up the advantage of surprise by testing? Even if it fizzles it's still a massive "dirty bomb". Objective achieved either way... scary thought



Legal considerations provided by: Dewey, Cheatum, and Howe
User currently offlineTheCommodore From Australia, joined Dec 2007, 2778 posts, RR: 8
Reply 30, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 4262 times:

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
I read an interesting piece on alternet about how Israel is likely to attack Iran in the next12 weeks (before the US election).

Nothing more than hot air, and a lot of it !

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
Will this act be catastrophic to the region?

Absolutely it will be catastrophic for the region. A region in which, Israel is a part of.

If Israel attacks, they better make sure as all hell the wind is blowing the right way on the day.   


Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 3):
Israel has already struggled with the revolution in Egypt.

And virtually all its neighbors at some point in time.

Quoting N537FX (Reply 6):
Iran wouldn't dare attack US targets or interests,

Exactly... storm in a tea cup

Quoting comorin (Reply 9):
Also, you cant attack a nation of 70m people and not kick up a hornet's nest...while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers, an attack would unite them, undoing years of Western foreign policy.

Sanction have been shown time and time again to have very limited effect at turning people against Governments, in fact the opposite can often be the case.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

I think that could well be a possibility

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

Generally I think it galvanize support for the current regime

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
3) What effect would this have on relations between Israel and its neighbors like Jordan, Egypt, etc.?

Not sure about Jordan, but Egypt would be a different kettle of fish as the current relationship is not what you would call solid at this point in time

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
4) An attack on Iran may cause a local nuclear disaster with radioisotopes scattered all over the place. Would the Israelis also attack Bushehr? I hope they wouldn't be that foolish. Bushehr is closer to Kuwait City, Riyadh, Manama, Doha, Abu Dhabi, and Muscat than it is to Tehran.

Lets hope that Israel is not that selfish, that they would want to cause untold collateral damage throughout the entire middle east region. But having said that, I think Israel will do what IT wants at the end of the day, and bugger everyone else !

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
Just my 2c. I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)

Yes, he is missed for these forums.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 24):
Then, the UN, the US and the whole international community has to save Israels collective a$$es again.

Not to sure about the US, as they always seem to side with the Israelis no matter what, but I do think the EU is becoming increasingly fed up with Israels shenanigans, and they way they continually thumb there nose up at UN resolutions regarding settlements.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 25):
They will become hated throughout the world (more than they already are) with no chance of public redemption for generations to come.

I would like to agree with you, however Israel has shown its self time and time again to be a selfish nation, with only its on well being on its mind.



Flown 905,468 kms or 2.356 times to the moon, 1296 hrs, Longest flight 10,524 kms
User currently offlineSFBdude From United States of America, joined Apr 2011, 125 posts, RR: 0
Reply 31, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4222 times:

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
While most of the Israel/Iran talk is about the possible military action aginst Iran's nuclear program, you guys must not forget the reason: "Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

http://www.haaretz.com/news/diplomac...he-landscape-of-geography-1.458802

At the bottom line we have a country 70 times larger then Israel that promise time and time again to destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth. This country must not have an atom bomb, no matter what.

I think you (and most other people) are taking this whole "wiping off the map" thing a little too literal. It even states in the link you provided that they want to get rid of the Israeli, or in this case zionist, regime and he has said it many times that's what he meant. Its pretty hard to return a piece of land to a people when you just got finished nuking the hell out of it and everyone inside of it (including the very people you're trying to liberate). None of my family and relatives feel threatened by this and it never even comes up in any of our conversations unless I bring it up.


User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13042 posts, RR: 12
Reply 32, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 4222 times:

I think much of this is more about for domestic consumption in Israel by the right wing parties that control government there and want to stay in power but also to put pressure on Iran who has supported Hezbollah and other enemies of Israel in Lebanon and currently, Syria. Let us not forget that within the last decade, Israel has bombed BEY airport to shut down support from Iran of those hostile to Israel and decades ago bombed a nuke facility in Iraq. Let's face it, Israel has a bad track record.

Of course, the world let India, Pakistan and Israel have nuke weapons so why are we saying NO to Iran?

The easy way out would be for Europe to not buy a drop of Iranian oil and not allow transfers of payments for oil, but that would just jack up the price of oil for everyone and probably Russia and China would just take up the slack as would continue payments. Hopeully such a cut off would make Iran give up their Nuclear ambitions, but probably wouldn't work anyway.

All this over a tiny country who's main reason for existence is a bunch of religious shrines and to protect a particular faith.


User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 33, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 4182 times:

An attack on Iran by Israel would have little effect on relations with her neighbours. Indeed, I might suggest that an attack would have to have at least tacit support or connivance.

Attacking Syria does not require flying over any one else's airspace: attacking Iran would. Jordan and Iraq or Jordan and Saudi Arabia are the shortest routes and even allowing for a quick flight there, the aircraft would still have to make their way home. This is only possible if the Jordanian, Iraqi and Saudi governments agree to turn a blind eye and allow free passage.

Sure, in the media the Arab States may huff and puff. But that would be purely for local consumption. In practice they might rub their hands with glee as a regional rival for power is weakened.


User currently offlinezkojq From New Zealand, joined Sep 2011, 1150 posts, RR: 1
Reply 34, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 4170 times:

There was this exact same speculation in the runup to the last US election. Just hot air IMO. If there is war however, I hope that whichever nation attacks first looses and looses very badly.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
I wish Baroque was still with us... he'd have some good insight on the matter (RIP)

Agreed.



Someone repaint ZK-PBG!
User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4896 posts, RR: 16
Reply 35, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 4149 times:

As the OP of this thread, and in accordance with the sentiments expressed, I would like to dedicate this thread to the memory of our irreplaceable friend Baroque, who brought so much heart to this forum.

User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15719 posts, RR: 26
Reply 36, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 4129 times:

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
Will this act be catastrophic to the region?

Might make gas prices jump, but probably not much worse than that.

Quoting comorin (Thread starter):
What will the US and EU do?

See how many shekels we can make selling weapons to the Israelis. And make sure that other Arab powers don't get their undies in a bunch, but I they aren't too keen on the idea of a nuclear armed Iran either, so that may be no big trick.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Not a chance. Frankly I don't see any way that any nation's attack on Israel would not provoke a significant American response.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
I've said before, if Iran wants nuclear weapons I think it's their sovereign right.

Sovereignty only goes as far as you can enforce it.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 37, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 4126 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 20):
It seems to me that, all of a sudden, the jungle drums have been banging a lot more loudly over the past week or so. I wonder if this might be because Israel has obtained new intelligence as to Iran's capability?

Yeah I think that the more that Israel gets in supposed "intelligence" the closer to war they are.

I'm neither confirming nor denying what they're saying, I just wish that the two sides would just stop bickering. One is blasting them accusing the other of being the next hitler, and the other is accusing the one about sucking the proverbial schlong of the U.S. when in reality both sides have internal and external issues that need to be fixed.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 38, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 4127 times:

You all seem to have forgotten one thing...

Are Israel really capable of bombing a country which has the oldest and also one of the most numerous Jewish communities?

If Israel attacks Iran it also means thousands of Jews will probably die.


Quote:
The Jewish community of Persia, modern-day Iran, is one of the oldest in the Diaspora, and its historical roots reach back to the 6th century B.C.E., the time of the First Temple. Their history in the pre-Islamic period is intertwined with that of the Jews of neighboring Babylon. Cyrus, the first of the Archemid dynasty, conquered Babylon in 539 B.C.E. and permitted the Jewish exiles to return to the Land of Israel, bringing the First Exile to an end.

read more:
http://www.jewishvirtuallibrary.org/...source/anti-semitism/iranjews.html


What Iran’s Jews Say
...
Yet perhaps 25,000 Jews live on in Iran, the largest such community, along with Turkey’s, in the Muslim Middle East. There are more than a dozen synagogues in Tehran; here in Esfahan a handful caters to about 1,200 Jews, descendants of an almost 3,000-year-old community.

read more:
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/23/opinion/23cohen.html?_r=1


Mahmoud Ahmadinejad: Jews in Iran
Iran is home to the biggest population of Jews in the Middle East outside Israel

Iran is home to the biggest population of Jews in the Middle East outside Israel. While the community faces limited discrimination, it is largely free to exercise the same rights as Muslims enjoy in the Islamic republic.
...
Maurice Motamed, the country's Jewish MP, has criticised Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's denials of the Holocaust but is otherwise a staunch supporter of the radical president's foreign and security policies. "I am an Iranian first and a Jew second," he said.

read more:
http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/worl...moud-Ahmadinejad-Jews-in-Iran.html


Iran's proud but discreet Jews
By Frances Harrison
BBC News, Tehran

Although Iran and Israel are bitter enemies, few know that Iran is home to the largest number of Jews anywhere in the Middle East outside Israel.

About 25,000 Jews live in Iran and most are determined to remain no matter what the pressures - as proud of their Iranian culture as of their Jewish roots.
...
He says the father of Iran's revolution, Imam Khomeini, recognised Jews as a religious minority that should be protected.

read more:
http://news.bbc.co.uk/2/hi/middle_east/5367892.stm


The Jews of Iran are Far Better Off Than Palestinians of Gaza
01.09.2010

There are 25,000 Jews in Iran, which is the largest Jewish population in the Middle East outside Israel. Iranian Jews are not persecuted or abused, in fact, they are protected under the Iranian constitution. They are free to practice their religion and to vote in elections. They are not stopped and searched at checkpoints, are not brutalized by an army of occupation and are not confined in a densely populated penal colony (Gaza) where they are deprived of the basic means of subsistence. Iranian Jews live in dignity and enjoy the benefits of citizenship.

and there is more in this article...

The allegations made by the North American State Department were condemned by Iranian Jews. The Association of Jews in Tehran said in a statement, "We Iranian Jews condemn the statements by the U.S. State Department on Iranian religious minorities, we announced that we are completely free to perform our religious duties and not feel any restriction to perform our religious rituals."

Who should we believe: Jews who actually live in Iran or troublemakers in the American State Department?

There are six kosher butchers, 11 synagogues and several Jewish schools in Tehran. No employee of Ahmadinejad or any other Iranian government agency made any attempt to close these facilities. Never. Iranian Jews are free to travel (or move) to Israel if they so wish. They are not trapped by an army of occupation. They are not deprived of food or medicine.

read more:
http://english.pravda.ru/hotspots/co...jews_of_iran_are_far_better_off-0/


And what if some of the Iranian nuclear scientists were Jews? It is quite possible after all.

Are Israel ready and willing to bomb Iran while being perfectly aware of all this?

     Wow!



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7150 posts, RR: 3
Reply 39, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 3953 times:

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
destroy my home, to kill my family and vanish my country from the face of earth

Sounds remarkably like what you lot did to the Palestinians, as they say you reap what you sow.


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12411 posts, RR: 37
Reply 40, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3904 times:

Another aspect of this whole issue is what Romney said to the Israelis; what was said behind closed doors. It's no secret that the Israelis would love to see anyone but Obama in the White House and their relationships with Republican administrations has been far stronger than those with Democrat presidents. For Netanyahu and Romney, an Israeli attack on Iran would help the latter politically. I think there are serious issues here; could Romney - who, let's face it, is very inexperienced in foreign diplomacy (as some of his utterings in his European trip proved) - have "encouraged" Bibi to accelerate things, because they have accelerated quite a bit since his visit. I don't think Bibi would have needed too much encouragement, of course! However, it does the raise the question as to whether a prospective president could have encouraged another government into military action which at some stage in the future might involve the US. THAT is a serious issue. Were there "one on one" meetings between the two? Did Romney give (or was he cajoled or pressurised into giving) any commitment to Netanyahu, which the latter could have interpreted as "go for it" and that the US would support him if/when the Republicans were returned to office?

User currently offlineMillwallSean From Singapore, joined Apr 2008, 1240 posts, RR: 6
Reply 41, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3900 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 22):

Let's also not forget that with Assad out of the way (not yet, but shortly), the political chessboard in the M/E changes and with no regional friends, Iran's need to have a nuclear weapon becomes all the more urgent

Somehow whats been missed is that Iran has another friend in the middle east. Its called Iraq and they are a closer friend than Syria has ever been.
most of iraqs present leadership spend decades in Iran during Saddams rule. they might not be persians but they are shia and they have deep loyalty to iran, a country that gave them refuge during the hard times when Saddam ruled and crushed any shia religious leadership ambition with an ironfist.

Somehow most Americans and its media tend to have missed that when Saddam was toppled the people that came in his place where the ones who had throughout the decades had been funded and sheltered by the Iranians.
Al Maliki the present prime minster of Iraq spent more than 20 years in Irans service. Living in teheran and then living in Damascus working for Iran and handling its connections with hezbollah. his party the most influential in Iraq are funded and have historically been funded by Iran.
If you read any middle eastern press they will say Iran is Al Malikis master and he serves the purpose of teheran not Baghdad.

http://english.alarabiya.net/views/2012/05/02/211691.html
http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/2010.../iran-iraq-maliki-ahmadinejad-sadr
http://www.foxnews.com/world/2012/06...lies-to-aid-iraq-embattled-leader/
http://www.infowars.com/how-maliki-a...arted-the-u-s-on-troop-withdrawal/
http://articles.cnn.com/2011-12-28/o...president-tariq-irgc?_s=PM:OPINION
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2011...uard-corps-at-white-house-meeting/

I know its Wikipedia but gives a rough idea of the man and his party
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nouri_al-Maliki
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Islamic_Dawa_Party



No One Likes Us - We Dont Care.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 42, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3881 times:

Quds Day

Iranian President Ahmadinejad: "The existence of the Zionist regime is an insult to all humanity"

note how he avoids naming Israel directly, always referring to the Zionist regime (there's always some misunderstandings in the translations from Farsi).

"You want a new Middle East? We do too, but in the new Middle East ... there will be no trace of the American presence and the Zionists," he said.
Mr Ahmadinejad called Israel "a corrupt, anti-human organised minority group standing up to all divine values".
"Today, confronting the existence of the fabricated Zionist regime is in fact protecting the rights and dignity of all human beings," he said, with a black and white scarf, which many Palestinians wear, around his neck.

http://news.sky.com/story/973811/ahm...nejad-israel-an-insult-to-humanity

So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Do they really fear they'll get beaten-up flat out by the Iranians and their potential allies?

It's been "hear... hear"... but no taking action in the end. How many years now?
Are Israel just agitating a red handkerchief to the Iranians and threatening them while they will not dare to attack them?

   

[Edited 2012-08-18 03:55:44]


There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26863 posts, RR: 58
Reply 43, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3859 times:

Interesting Sky News report. On right hand side under higlights section . :

Video: Israelis Prepare For Potential Iran Conflict

http://news.sky.com/world

Seems like they are getting ready with the handing out of gas masks.

Personally the world would be better without a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel. They are nearly as bad as eachother to be honest. Both countries are guilty of gross human rights violations and mass killings.


User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 44, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3858 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 42):
So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Hmmm.... hmmmmm....... because it isn't worth the costs? In Israel, we have social unrest. Soldiers are meagerly paid. Mr. Ahmadinejad is full of rhetoric, but there is no substantial threat to Israel.

If you say Israel is in deadly danger, you're insulting its military capabilities.

Another reason is that when you start a war, you've already used all your gunpowder. Your options are drastically reduced now, and your only hope rests on your armed forces and their luck. There is no "Uh, sorry, we tried to destroy you but in hindsight, we should have better talked to you. We'll do it better next time."

What then, after the first rounds of airstrikes haven't really crippled the nuclear facilities? What if the attacks only delay the Iranian nuclear programme for 3-4 years? You need a plan for the time after the war plan. We've seen that in Iraq.


David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 45, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3835 times:

It is not just the Iranian clerics and President Ahmadinejad... they've got Israel-hating "friends" in other places which we hardly hear about.

Prominent Saudi Cleric: "Holocaust Is Exaggeration... Jews Wreak Destruction, Wage War, Deceive, & Extort"
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/...ews-Consume-Blood-Of-Children.html

that same Saudi cleric again:
Saudi Cleric Salman Al-Odeh: Jews Use Human Blood for Passover Matzos
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3536.htm

and their Egyptian counterpart:
Egyptian Cleric Sallah Sultan: People Worldwide "Thirst for the Blood of the Jews"
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3523.htm


I wonder why the attention is always on Pres. Ahmadinejad? He is a scarecrow allright but by August 13 he will have ended his second presiential term and he will be out of the way.

and this:

Retired Egyptian General Abd Al-Hamid Umran Calls for an Egyptian Nuclear Program: We Should Follow the Iranian Model and Deceive the International Community
http://www.thememriblog.org/iran/blog_personal/en/40704.htm

With Dr Morsi in power, it could very well happen. Israel will have to prepare to attack Egypt next.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 43):
the world would be better without a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel.

Iran has signed the nuclear proliferation treaty. Israel always refused to sign the NPT.
Makes a whole world of difference. Also Iran has not tested any nuclear weapons to this day.



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlinescbriml From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2003, 12407 posts, RR: 46
Reply 46, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3833 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 38):
Are Israel ready and willing to bomb Iran while being perfectly aware of all this?

Yes, because any attack would be targeted against Iran's nuclear facilities. The Israelis are not going to carpet bomb down-town Tehran.



Time flies like an arrow, but fruit flies like a banana!
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 47, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3832 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
Prominent Saudi Cleric: "Holocaust Is Exaggeration... Jews Wreak Destruction, Wage War, Deceive, & Extort"
http://www.theyeshivaworld.com/news/...ews-Consume-Blood-Of-Children.html

that same Saudi cleric again:
Saudi Cleric Salman Al-Odeh: Jews Use Human Blood for Passover Matzos
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3536.htm

and their Egyptian counterpart:
Egyptian Cleric Sallah Sultan: People Worldwide "Thirst for the Blood of the Jews"
http://www.memritv.org/clip/en/3523.htm

I have read - in Switzerland - a Christian magazine that said that all Muslims were descendants of the Devil himself. We aren't impartial either. And when it comes to Israel, German politicians are all too often guilt-ridden yes-sayers instead of real friends that are capable of stopping somebody else before they commit a grave error.

Israel will be 0.01% safer after they have taken out Iran's nuclear facilities. Israel will be respected 99.9% less if they do that.


David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 48, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3829 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 47):
Israel will be 0.01% safer after they have taken out Iran's nuclear facilities. I

raises more questions:

1/ why then attack Iran?

2/ who will pay for the war? Israel and rhe US. are broke - we know it - and so are the UK. and France.



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26863 posts, RR: 58
Reply 49, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3819 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
Iran has signed the nuclear proliferation treaty. Israel always refused to sign the NPT.
Makes a whole world of difference. Also Iran has not tested any nuclear weapons to this day.

Signing something and having a different agenda behind closed doors makes a world of difference too. Im no Israel fan but Im not naive with regards to Iran either .


User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 50, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3819 times:

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 41):
Somehow whats been missed is that Iran has another friend in the middle east. Its called Iraq and they are a closer friend than Syria has ever been.
most of iraqs present leadership spend decades in Iran during Saddams rule. they might not be persians but they are shia and they have deep loyalty to iran, a country that gave them refuge during the hard times when Saddam ruled and crushed any shia religious leadership ambition with an ironfist.

   All very good points, and the information is fairly accessible.

Quoting MillwallSean (Reply 41):
Somehow most Americans and its media tend to have missed that when Saddam was toppled the people that came in his place where the ones who had throughout the decades had been funded and sheltered by the Iranians.

Possibly because large swathes of the American media businesses are either controlled by Jewish shareholders or are strongly influenced by them (and by AIPAC). Not intending to offend anyone but facts are facts.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 42):
Mr Ahmadinejad called Israel "a corrupt, anti-human organised minority group standing up to all divine values".

I'd actually agree with the corrupt part. But that's an affliction that covers the world.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 42):
So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Perhaps because the Israeli military does not want to do this.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 43):
Personally the world would be better without a nuclear Iran and a nuclear Israel.

It would be better off if no one had nuclear weapons. You can achieve comparable effects to nukes with FAEs (Fuel Air Explosives).

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 44):
Another reason is that when you start a war, you've already used all your gunpowder.

Yes. Easy enough to start one, difficult part is ending it.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
With Dr Morsi in power, it could very well happen. Israel will have to prepare to attack Egypt next.

I would think that if Egypt were to start a weapons program, they could kiss off American civil and military foreign aid. On which a big chunk of their economy depends.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 51, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3815 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 48):
1/ why then attack Iran?

In one important point, Mr. Netanyahu and Mr. Ahmadinejad are close brethren - they both love the sound of rattling sabres! Both are men with tough words! 

"All the world is a stage", said Shakespeare. Many people are mostly facade and contain little substance.

"All the world is a stage, and we are badly rehearsed", said another poet...

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 48):
2/ who will pay for the war? Israel and rhe US. are broke - we know it - and so are the UK. and France.

It is quite a challenge to underfund the military in certain regions of the world... as soon as a nation perceives a grave danger, presto, the money is here.



David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinesomething From United Kingdom, joined May 2011, 1633 posts, RR: 21
Reply 52, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3812 times:

Quoting comorin (Reply 9):
while sanctions can help turn Iranians against their rulers, an attack would unite them, undoing years of Western foreign policy

Actually, I am convinced that sanctions have an adverse effect. You have to look at the situation from an Iranian perspective: The people there aren't all intelligent, rational and especially objectively informed people. To them, the evil imperialist US government is trying to force them to lose their identity and become like them and work for them. Even if many Iranians don't necessarily agree with their current government, having a common enemy - in this case the USA or the collective west - will always unite people. My enemy's enemy is my best friend.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
1) Would Russia attack Israel? Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

Russia is not going to war. Their country is falling apart and while they would seize the opportunity to provide Iran with weapons, they wouldn't become active themselves. Russians don't even like muslims; they just like a too influential USA even less.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
2) Would this galvanize the Iranian people to support the current government or might it lead the way to an Iranian Spring?

Neither. It would divide the Iranian population. You have to remember that Ahmadinedjad is actually the liberal of current Iranian politics. An Israeli attack on Iran would boost the hardliner's popularity on the one side, but strengthen Ahmadinejad's on the other.

Quoting EL-AL (Reply 14):
"Iran Supreme Leader: Israel will vanish from the 'landscape of geography'".

How is that different though, from Americans celebrating in public the assassination of Osama Bin Laden? Psychologically speaking..

Quoting tugger (Reply 16):
My thoughts are that Israel is trying the rattle the sabre as hard as possible to get everyone thinking that an attack is inevitable.

You do know that this is an election year for Israel, right?



..sick of it. -K. Pilkington.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8795 posts, RR: 24
Reply 53, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3778 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 42):
So... my question is... why are Israel waiting all this time to launch their attack on Iran? Are they afraid of going at it along without the support of the U.S. the U.K. and France? Why is it taking them so long to attack?

Do they really fear they'll get beaten-up flat out by the Iranians and their potential allies?

Israel has dealt with such things before - the most extreme of which was in 1967 and 73 when the whole Arab world went for their throat. But it was costly and bloody, and nobody is eager to provoke such a response, especially now that Egypt is now likely to join in any such attack (don't know how many of you heard last week when the new Islamist government in Egypt managed to throw out the top military leadership and put their own people in their place). Plus you can count on another 10-year Intefada. Israel will wait till the very last minute, when there is no other choice, before attacking.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 44):
If you say Israel is in deadly danger, you're insulting its military capabilities.

The UN now reports that Iran has enough weapons-grade material for at least 5 nuclear weapons - whether they have been assembled or not is unknown. That was the hard part. Getting it 1000 miles to Israel is relatively easy.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 54, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 3756 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 53):
The UN now reports that Iran has enough weapons-grade material for at least 5 nuclear weapons - whether they have been assembled or not is unknown. That was the hard part. Getting it 1000 miles to Israel is relatively easy.

Even if that's true, the weapons still need to be tested. You don't want to use five nuclear weapons among which two will be duds and another two will be intercepted by Israel's surface-air-missiles.

There will be another ways to bring them to their targets, for example by "commercial" shipping. But this begs the question why Israel is so hysterical about the country being destroyed every next five minutes, while the U.S. offers countless possibilities to bring in a nuclear weapon and let it detonate in the midst of NY?

This also leads to the question whether Israel's intelligence community isn't up to par.



David

[Edited 2012-08-18 08:54:35]


Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinemham001 From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3575 posts, RR: 3
Reply 55, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3738 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 1):

If you look at the placement of our carriers, you have to wonder if something is up.

We routinely rotate 2-3 carriers in and around the region.

Which highlights just how important it is to get our transportation system off oil and made electric.

[Edited 2012-08-18 09:51:30]

User currently offlineZANL188 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 3504 posts, RR: 0
Reply 56, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3736 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 54):
Even if that's true, the weapons still need to be tested.

Why would the Iranians test them? Assuming they have the capability... A test will provoke a response in which case Iran will likely lose - or have seriously damaged - the nuclear capability. Iran doesn't need to prove it has a capability, it's enemies already believe it....

The Hiroshima bomb was never tested.... Trinity tested the weapon used at Nagasaki.



Legal considerations provided by: Dewey, Cheatum, and Howe
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8795 posts, RR: 24
Reply 57, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3708 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 54):
Even if that's true, the weapons still need to be tested. You don't want to use five nuclear weapons among which two will be duds and another two will be intercepted by Israel's surface-air-missiles.

It's simple physics. The theory, configurations etc are well established. As ZANL188 pointed out, the Little Boy gun-type bomb had never been tested - the scientists knew it would work because physics demanded that it would work. The Fat Man Implosion type had to be tested because of its more complex configuration and the need for precise timing for the initiation charges - a complexity the gun-type bomb did not share.

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 54):
But this begs the question why Israel is so hysterical about the country being destroyed every next five minutes, while the U.S. offers countless possibilities to bring in a nuclear weapon and let it detonate in the midst of NY?

Have you seen the size of Israel? You only need a couple of A-Bombs to devastate the entire country.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 58, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3680 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 54):
Even if that's true, the weapons still need to be tested.
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
Then they have to waste one in a test.

Not any more. Look up "zero energy test".
This link may be useful: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nevada_..._Site
Quoting ZANL188 (Reply 56):
Why would the Iranians test them? Assuming they have the capability... A test will provoke a response in which case Iran will likely lose - or have seriously damaged - the nuclear capability. Iran doesn't need to prove it has a capability, it's enemies already believe it....

Which is exactly why Israel has never officially commented on any nuclear weapons it may or may not have. Although we all know what the reality is. Those in the government in Israel refer to this as "nuclear opacity".

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 36):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 23):
I've said before, if Iran wants nuclear weapons I think it's their sovereign right.

Sovereignty only goes as far as you can enforce it.

Sovereignty is established once you make the price of aggression too steep. For example, by blocking the deepest part of the Strait of Hormuz (which is generally fairly shallow). Once you make the insurance biz declare the Strait and Gulf to be insured at war risk rates.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 57):
It's simple physics.

Not that simple, and after 35+ years in the nuclear biz I know a few things. Little Boy used up most of the U235 lying around at the time (something like 64 lbs IIRC) but was so crude it had to work. In fact the then powers that be were so confident they decided to arm the weapon en route to Hiroshima.

Fat Man, OTOH, needed implosion as you said because of Pu's very high fast fission cross section. In contrast to Little Boy, because of the then complex trigger circuits, it was armed on the ground. So if "Bock's Car" had cracked up on takeoff on Aug 9, "BOOM !" on Tinian.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 59, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3679 times:

Name me one single country Iran has declared war on in the last 100 years?

   



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 60, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3668 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 59):
Name me one single country Iran has declared war on in the last 100 years?

Can't think of any. Mind you, I am not aware of any formal declaration of war since more or less the end of WW2.
That said, Iran is sponsoring Hezbollah, which has declared war on Israel.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 61, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3580 times:

More attack on Iran speculation:

Insider "NATO:Israel will attack Iran august 20, 2012"

This is a Belgian/Brussels Professor. His field is Middle East politics/history.

Pierre PICCININ ‏@pierrepiccinin
Selon mes sources OTAN, Israël attaquerait l'Iran le 20. Le monde se détournerait de la Syrie et le grand massacre pourrait y commencer.
https://twitter.com/pierrepiccinin

Translation:
According to my NATO sources, Israel will attack Iran on August 20. The world would not be focused on Syria anymore and the big massacre will begin.

got him:
http://wewritewhatwelike.com/2012/05...onversion-on-the-road-to-damascus/


I find it hard to believe that israel would release an attack date to "NATO insiders"

 Wow!

and not only him...

Israeli Journalist Gideon Levy on the Escalating Talk of A Military Attack on Iran
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PdbzNpHCTUk&feature=player_embedded

 

[Edited 2012-08-19 03:18:13]


There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 62, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3544 times:

Apparently not everyone in Israel is enamored of Bibi's grand plan to "stop" Iran's nuclear program - even if that's possible:

http://news.nationalpost.com/2012/08...ar-with-iran-netanyahus-ex-deputy/

Quick take on article:
- will unleash a war with incalculable costs;
- will only set Iran back 6-12 months

Mofaz is not nobody. Was vice-premier to Netanyahu, was defense minister, was chief of staff of IDF.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlinezkojq From New Zealand, joined Sep 2011, 1150 posts, RR: 1
Reply 63, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3539 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 57):
Have you seen the size of Israel? You only need a couple of A-Bombs to devastate the entire country.

....and kill a lot of Palestinians, Jordanians, Lebanese and possibly Egyptians as well. What exactly does Iran have to gain from this? Additionally, because of the turn of the earth any fallout is likely to fall over Europe who no-doubt won't be pleased. Again I ask, what does Iran have to gain from attacking Israel in this manor?


Quoting connies4ever (Reply 60):
That said, Iran is sponsoring Hezbollah, which has declared war on Israel.

Hezbollah is an insurance policy for Iran. If israel attacks Iran, a lot of rockets will rain down on them from southern Lebanon. Thus it is best if Israel does not to attack Iran and Iran does not attack Israel.



Someone repaint ZK-PBG!
User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26863 posts, RR: 58
Reply 64, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3534 times:

Quoting zkojq (Reply 63):
Hezbollah is an insurance policy for Iran. If israel attacks Iran, a lot of rockets will rain down on them from southern Lebanon.

Indeed they have a massive stock pile since the last war with Israel. Alot of them are longer range too .


User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2331 posts, RR: 13
Reply 65, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 15 hours ago) and read 3507 times:

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 62):
Mofaz is not nobody. Was vice-premier to Netanyahu, was defense minister, was chief of staff of IDF.

And born in Tehran to parents from Esfahan...

David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 66, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3457 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 59):
Name me one single country Iran has declared war on in the last 100 years?

I would like to say Iraq but I'm not brushed up on my middle eastern history.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8795 posts, RR: 24
Reply 67, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 3435 times:

Quoting zkojq (Reply 63):
....and kill a lot of Palestinians, Jordanians, Lebanese and possibly Egyptians as well. What exactly does Iran have to gain from this? Additionally, because of the turn of the earth any fallout is likely to fall over Europe who no-doubt won't be pleased. Again I ask, what does Iran have to gain from attacking Israel in this manor?

You are making the assumption that the Iranian leadership is rational, and not ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 68, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3382 times:

Israel and the IDF seems to be itching to attack the Iranians.

Tonight is New Moon. Let's see if anything happens. There is still tonight and tomorrow night and then it will be on to September.

I doubt the IDF will be able to repeat the same success they had with Operation Opera when they attacked the Iraqi reactor with their F-16s. That reactor was only one place. It made it a quick and easy job.

It will be a whole different story with Iran. This attack will necessitate a much more careful planning with a 100% risk of retalliation from the Iranians.

Wait and see.

 Wow!



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8795 posts, RR: 24
Reply 69, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 3378 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 68):
Israel and the IDF seems to be itching to attack the Iranians.

Your evidence of this? They have no death-wish.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13042 posts, RR: 12
Reply 70, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3329 times:

By the way, today is the end of Ramadan, the major holy period of Islam. Hajj, is in the Christian calendar October 24 - 29 and I don't think Iran would want to interfere with that.

The Jewish High Holy days in the Christian calendar are on September 16-17 & 25-26, just after the full moon (although a couple of wars by/involving Israel had occurred during some Jewish holy days, so who knows)

The next full moon would be mid-October just before national and local elections in Israel (Oct. 22) and less than 3 weeks before the USA elections Nov 6. Hajj is October 24-29. The weird irony of that mid to late-October period is that it would be during the 50th Anniversary of the Cuban Missile Crises, one of the closest brushes the world had with nuke bomb issues. I was 10 years old when it happened, in Catholic school and remember praying for our Catholic US President Kennedy and the USA that we would beat the 'heathen communists' and prevent war. Maybe we all need to start praying....

If the full moon would be critical for Israel then they have very few slots before their and the USA's elections. For Iran, they have a few slots. Still, I wouldn't put too much emphasis on a full moon for Israel to attack, they could use stealthy missile armed drones - Israel is a major developer of them including working with the USA companies. A few well placed missiles in around the nuke sites, critical oil, government and military communications ops in Iran or by Iran some rockets into Israel proper wouldn't need a full moon either.

No matter what, no one would win a major war in that region.


User currently offlinezkojq From New Zealand, joined Sep 2011, 1150 posts, RR: 1
Reply 71, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 3323 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 67):
You are making the assumption that the Iranian leadership is rational, and not ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.

Is the North Korean leadership rational?



Someone repaint ZK-PBG!
User currently offlinevictrola From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 503 posts, RR: 1
Reply 72, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3296 times:

Quoting zkojq (Reply 71):
You are making the assumption that the Iranian leadership is rational, and not ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.

The Iranian leadership uses and interprets Islam as it pleases in order to advance Iranian national ambitions. These people crave power and will do whatever they can to survive. They have no intention of commiting national suicide. The ability to take power and to remain in power and run a large country like Iran requires a certain level of rational thought.

Iran gains nothing by launching a nucler attack against Israel. Its leaders are well aware of the fact that such an attack would lead to retalliation that would bring an end to over 2500 years of Iranian civilization. No nation has ever made a concious desision to commit national suicide.


User currently offlineTheCommodore From Australia, joined Dec 2007, 2778 posts, RR: 8
Reply 73, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3297 times:

Quoting victrola (Reply 72):
These people crave power and will do whatever they can to survive.

Like most politicians world wide !

Quoting victrola (Reply 72):
Iran gains nothing by launching a nucler attack against Israel.

This thread is not about Iran launching an attack against Israel, actually, its the other way round.

Quoting victrola (Reply 72):
Its leaders are well aware of the fact that such an attack would lead to retalliation that would bring an end to over 2500 years of Iranian civilization.

Lets us all hope that Israel sees it the same way.



Flown 905,468 kms or 2.356 times to the moon, 1296 hrs, Longest flight 10,524 kms
User currently offlineTheCol From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 2038 posts, RR: 6
Reply 74, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 5 hours ago) and read 3268 times:

Quoting flyingturtle (Reply 28):
Anybody with half a brain can arrive at this conclusion. Time and again, Israel has said that a military operation will solve a specific "problem" for once and for all. Which didn't turn out as desired.

So you're guessing then?

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 68):
Israel and the IDF seems to be itching to attack the Iranians.

Since when? Last time I checked, the IDF wasn't to cozy with the idea.



No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 75, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 4 hours ago) and read 3258 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 67):
You are making the assumption that the Iranian leadership is rational, and not ruled by Islamic fundamentalists.

Many times I thought under Bush 2 that the US was ruled by Christian fundamentalists. Just as dangerous (see: Iraq).

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 68):
Israel and the IDF seems to be itching to attack the Iranians.

Your evidence ? See Mofaz's comments I supplied earlier. The IDF will do as ordered, but I don't get the impression they are enthusiastic about this.

Quoting victrola (Reply 72):
The Iranian leadership uses and interprets Islam as it pleases in order to advance Iranian national ambitions.

As in the West pols use Christianity as needed in the way they want.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 76, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 2 hours ago) and read 3237 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 66):
I would like to say Iraq but I'm not brushed up on my middle eastern history.

The Iran - Iraq war began on the 22 September 1980 when Iraq launched simultaneous land and air attacks on Iranian territory. While Iran quickly repelled them, the war dragged for eight years with the ironic situation that Iraq received aid from both the USA and from the USSR. The war ended with Iran withdrawing to the pre-war borders.

Iran and Iraq had been involved in non-violent disputes over the border for decades, but under the Shah (when Iran was a US ally) Iran did support Kurdish separatists in their struggle against Iraq, while Iraq repaid the favour supporting Kurdish separatists in Iran.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 68):
Israel and the IDF seems to be itching to attack the Iranians.

In most countries it is politicians who favour war rather than the defence forces who pay the price of the politicians' vanity and grand-standing. The attitude of the IDF appears to be that a strike would merely set back Iran's alleged ambitions by a few months or a couple of years and that the price paid may be too high.

There has been plenty of coverage in both Israel and in the West showing that the IDF is far from enthusiastic about and attack on Iran. Members (and former members) of a number of security organisations have also publicly cautioned against an attack. But of course, the IDF will obey orders from the lawfully elected Government of Israel. If Netanyahu believes that by appearing to be extra tough against Iran his election chances improve, then an attack might eventuate.


User currently offlineNASCARAirforce From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3178 posts, RR: 4
Reply 77, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 3250 times:

This is just all an excuse just to make the oil companies richer - hype up a bunch of speculation of what could happen in the mideast so that oil prices reach $200 a barrel and Exxon Mobil and others can make record profits.

User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 78, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3229 times:

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 76):
the IDF will obey orders from the lawfully elected Government of Israel. If Netanyahu believes that by appearing to be extra tough against Iran his election chances improve, then an attack might eventuate.

Haaretz:
Former Israeli intelligence chief: Netanyahu and Barak dangerously stoking flames of war
Maj. Gen. (res.) Uri Saguy, who was head of the IDF's Operations Directorate during the first Lebanon war and MI chief from 1991 to 1995, decided this week to make his voice heard over what he calls 'the purposely timed hysteria.'

The article is available to subscribers only.
http://www.haaretz.com/weekend/week-...ing-flames-of-war.premium-1.458941

It will all come by surprise. Bibi and Barak are not going to give any advance notice.

 



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offline777way From Pakistan, joined Dec 2005, 5716 posts, RR: 4
Reply 79, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 3117 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 38):

Speaking of which the anti-christ will be Jewish and born in Isfahan.


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 80, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3044 times:

Going back to the thread title, Israel's leader determined to go to war against Iran befofre the U.S. election.
...

Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is determined to attack Iran before the US elections,” Israel’s Channel 10 News claimed on Monday night, and Israel is now “closer than ever” to a strike designed to thwart Iran’s nuclear drive.

The TV station’s military reporter Alon Ben-David, who earlier this year was given extensive access to the Israel Air Force as it trained for a possible attack, reported that, since upgraded sanctions against Iran have failed to force a suspension of the Iranian nuclear program in the past two months, “from the prime minister’s point of view, the time for action is getting ever closer.”

http://www.timesofisrael.com/netanya...ections-claims-israels-channel-10/

and this

Did Shimon ‘we can’t go it alone on Iran’ Peres shatter the precedent of presidents?
Israel’s head of state has been slammed for opposing the PM’s Iran plan, with critics demanding he stay out of politics. But not all presidents have been content with shaking hands and giving out medals

http://www.timesofisrael.com/

 Wow!



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 81, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2944 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 80):
Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu “is determined to attack Iran before the US elections,” Israel’s Channel 10 News claimed on Monday night, and Israel is now “closer than ever” to a strike designed to thwart Iran’s nuclear drive.
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 80):
Did Shimon ‘we can’t go it alone on Iran’ Peres shatter the precedent of presidents?

It won't happen. Israel and Iran right now are ALL talk. I've officially changed my position on this; it's not gonna happen---right now, at least. No military preparations on EITHER side are being made (besides the strait of Hormuz) and all Israel is doing is trying to get assurance from all of us to make sure we got their back. And frankly, the only thing I have to say is, I hope we don't. We don't need another war. We need to figure out how to balance the budget before we can attack our "enemies," if we can even call them that.


The one thing we can do, if Israel goes to war, is arm the living daylights outta them by selling them as much weaponry as possible. Easy way to get some burden off the debt as well.



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineAcheron From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1600 posts, RR: 2
Reply 82, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 2939 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Russia-Iran relations have been pretty cozy.

On a practical level.

Russia props up Iran, Iran keeps Saudi Arabia busy and a busy Saudi Arabia stays away from supporting the chechen rebels to much.

Of course, that might change with Saudi Arabia and Qatar trying to swap the iranian puppet in Syria for a saudi one.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 83, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 1 day ago) and read 2928 times:

Quoting Acheron (Reply 82):
Of course, that might change with Saudi Arabia and Qatar trying to swap the iranian puppet in Syria for a saudi one.

What would such a 'puppet' be like? Shariah?



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineAcheron From Spain, joined Sep 2005, 1600 posts, RR: 2
Reply 84, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2780 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 83):
What would such a 'puppet' be like? Shariah?

Expect another theocracy, which is what the region needs...not.


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19419 posts, RR: 58
Reply 85, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 2744 times:

Quoting TheCommodore (Reply 30):
Generally I think it galvanize support for the current regime

The more I think about it, the more I'm inclined to agree with you. I think that this would be a very foolish move for Israel to make given that this is almost certainly the outcome.

Quoting redflyer (Reply 25):
I love it when people make quotes like this. It's actually the politicians that mess things up and break them. The military is just another tool of a political ruling class. Without the decision of a politician, militaries have no orders to go off to war.

I wholeheartedly agree with the above and my statement in no way, shape, or form negates yours.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 45):
Saudi Cleric Salman Al-Odeh: Jews Use Human Blood for Passover Matzos

Oooh, the blood libel! It's been a good 15 years since it was last used.

Quoting connies4ever (Reply 50):
Possibly because large swathes of the American media businesses are either controlled by Jewish shareholders or are strongly influenced by them (and by AIPAC). Not intending to offend anyone but facts are facts.

Ah, the "Jewish Conspiracy." You might not realize that's what you're spouting, but, at least that's the weak version. No, there is no vast Jewish influence in these matters.

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 83):

What would such a 'puppet' be like? Shariah?

There will ne no secular governments formed in the Mid-East in the forseeable future.


User currently offlinePHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 7239 posts, RR: 17
Reply 86, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2661 times:

Quoting Acheron (Reply 84):
Expect another theocracy, which is what the region needs...not.

   IDIOTS! I can't believe people actually believe theocracies are the way to go. What a bunch of crap!

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 85):
There will ne no secular governments formed in the Mid-East in the forseeable future.

Libya's ruling parties are secular, actually



One of the FB admins for PHX Spotters. "Zach the Expat!"
User currently offlineWrenchBender From Canada, joined Feb 2004, 1779 posts, RR: 9
Reply 87, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 2656 times:

Quoting PHX787 (Reply 86):
Quoting Acheron (Reply 84):
Expect another theocracy, which is what the region needs...not.

   IDIOTS! I can't believe people actually believe theocracies are the way to go. What a bunch of crap!

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 85):
There will ne no secular governments formed in the Mid-East in the forseeable future.

Libya's ruling parties are secular, actually

Libya is North Africa, not the Middle East

WrenchBender



Silly Pilot, Tricks are for kids.......
User currently offlineFlighty From United States of America, joined Apr 2007, 8416 posts, RR: 3
Reply 88, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 6 days 1 hour ago) and read 2633 times:

I will cheer for nonviolence and total defeat of war mongering thugs.

User currently offlineconnies4ever From Canada, joined Feb 2006, 4066 posts, RR: 13
Reply 89, posted (1 year 11 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2553 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 85):
Quoting connies4ever (Reply 50):
Possibly because large swathes of the American media businesses are either controlled by Jewish shareholders or are strongly influenced by them (and by AIPAC). Not intending to offend anyone but facts are facts.

Ah, the "Jewish Conspiracy." You might not realize that's what you're spouting, but, at least that's the weak version. No, there is no vast Jewish influence in these matters.


Having dated women named Feldbrill and Rubin, I doubt what you're intending. Having spent more time in the temple than church, I hear you. But I get it. I call a spade a spade.



Nostalgia isn't what it used to be.
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