okie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2378 posts, RR: 3 Posted (9 months 23 hours ago) and read 1464 times:
Issac to reach as much as Cat II by landfall.
Interesting note that I was talking to a friend who works for an international oil company Fri the 17th to discuss other things than hurricanes and he indicated that he was busy scheduling and rescheduling work and removing non essential personnel in the GOM for the impending storm.
Quite interesting that I mentioned that at that point the weather channel was indicating it would hit Tampa and not effect much west in the GOM. He corrected me and said that all their models show that Mobile would be the target. It will be quite interesting to see how close their data plays out. He also made the comment that they were in the business of saving lives and protecting the environment not worrying where the RNC is being held.
I made a trip along US 90 in July 2005 just before Katrina between Bay St Louis and Mobile and commented about how close the structures were to the water with only a few feet of rise in elevation. If there was the 20 ft storm surges you here about then even the roofs would be underwater. We know how that turned out. I just did a google satellite view of the area and would say less than 50% of the structures were rebuilt. There is a lot of concrete for foundations, driveways, and parking lots on empty lots but no buildings.
Lets hope there is not much damage or any loss of life.
stasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3267 posts, RR: 6 Reply 1, posted (9 months 22 hours ago) and read 1453 times:
What I'm hearing from the meteorologists is that the longer Isaac stays over the warm water of the Gulf, the more likely the storm could reach category 3..... which would put the levees in the New Orleans area under intense pressure again, as well as the parishes along the Louisiana Gulf that may not be protected by the levee system at all. Praying that the storm weakens, but these damn storms are so unpredictable. The oil rigs in the eastern Gulf are on stand-by for evacuation as well according to CNN - so there goes jet fuel and gasoline prices up - again.
"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 6150 posts, RR: 25 Reply 2, posted (9 months 22 hours ago) and read 1449 times:
Quoting okie (Thread starter): I made a trip along US 90 in July 2005 just before Katrina between Bay St Louis and Mobile
I've made several trips along that route.
The most impressive was in May 1970. There were still a couple 300 - 400 ft long ships two blocks inland in Biloxi and Gulfport. My last trip along that route was 2005 and noted that the coast was even more built up than in 1969.
The beachfront homes destroyed in Ivan in 2004 were already being rebuilt on Dauphine Island.
okie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2378 posts, RR: 3 Reply 3, posted (9 months 22 hours ago) and read 1435 times:
Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 1): The oil rigs in the eastern Gulf are on stand-by for evacuation as well according to CNN - so there goes jet fuel and gasoline prices up - again
I believe from my conversation with my friend that the oil companies are about a week ahead of the media.
The last thing they want is a loss of life or an environmental problem.
You are correct about the oil prices, last week the commodity price went through the roof on Orange Juice because possibility of damage to Orange trees. You can rest assured with the part of the GOM shut in and the Venezuelan refinery blast that oil prices will be going up. Even producing wells/platforms will take the opportunity while they are shut in to make maintenance repairs and up grades along with inspections before coming back on line.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 2): I've made several trips along that route.
We had a regular poster here that made the trip down through US90 in late 2005 or early spring of 2006 with lots of pictures showing all the damage. It was quite amazing.
Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 1): ..... which would put the levees in the New Orleans area under intense pressure again, as well as the parishes along the Louisiana Gulf that may not be protected by the levee system at all.
Interesting that New Orleans did not get much damage from Katrina itself but from the levies failing. I was watching CNN along with other channels as well and when the reporters came out of their hotels on Bourbon St declared all was OK until several hours later that they discovered the levies had failed.
texan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4204 posts, RR: 53 Reply 4, posted (9 months 22 hours ago) and read 1427 times:
The landing will be heavily influenced by the location and strength of a high pressure system. If the centre of the high pressure stays west, Ivan will likely track towards Louisiana or, at the edge of possibility to the Louisiana/Texas border. But a more easterly high pressure centre could drive the storm toward Pensacola. There is still a lot of uncertainty about this storm, but it seems likely to be a Cat 2 storm making landfall between Mobile and Southern Louisiana. Gulfport/Biloxi is in the firing line right now, with the worst storm surge being forecast for there and the N.O. area. But this forecast could change 3-4 times in the next couple of days.
Right now it is forecast to make landfall on late Tuesday or early Wednesday. If it makes landfall on Wednesday, that'd be 7 years to the day of Hurricane Katrina's landfall.
Texan
"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
okie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2378 posts, RR: 3 Reply 6, posted (9 months 9 hours ago) and read 1326 times:
Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 5): RSOE EDIS is showing Isaac will make landfall as Category 3????
Right now the Tropical Storm is in a area that has warm water for development but not the upper atmosphere to support development.
Uneducated guess is that it will have trouble to even make a Cat 2.
They will not evacuate New Orleans unless it looks to be a Cat 3.
New Orleans did fine with Katrina it just was the levy failure that cause the issues. Billions upon billions of dollars were spent on the levies around NO since. I would suspect they should do fine with a Cat 1 storm surge with that investment.
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 7, posted (9 months 9 hours ago) and read 1316 times:
Let's looks at the postives folks.
As long as Issac remains below Cat 2, I think the benefits of the storm will outweigh the destruction.
Many farmers that sill have salvageable crops may benefit handily from this storm. Some areas may get a bit too much,
but in many marignal areas, this storm could be a gamechanger for some crops.
cmf From United States of America, joined Jun 2011, 2485 posts, RR: 35 Reply 8, posted (9 months 8 hours ago) and read 1301 times:
Quoting okie (Thread starter): Quite interesting that I mentioned that at that point the weather channel was indicating it would hit Tampa and not effect much west in the GOM. He corrected me and said that all their models show that Mobile would be the target. It will be quite interesting to see how close their data plays out. He also made the comment that they were in the business of saving lives and protecting the environment not worrying where the RNC is being held.
People often forget how wide hurricanes can be. They focus on the center and the cone in the forecast but you can have dangerous winds and flooding 100's of km away.
Combine the later with the wide discrepancy in the models and it really becomes unimportant where it will hit. All that matters is if you're in the danger zone and how much time you need to make your preparations.
Don’t repeat earlier generations mistakes. Learn history for a better future.
iowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4099 posts, RR: 7 Reply 9, posted (9 months 7 hours ago) and read 1283 times:
AIRLINERS.NET CREW FORUM MODERATOR
Where ever it hits, we are desperately hoping for some rain in the midwest. It is too late for a lot of the corn crop here in northern Iowa, but the soybeans still have a shot if we can some decent rainfall.
ZANL188 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 3249 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (9 months 5 hours ago) and read 1252 times:
Quoting cmf (Reply 8): People often forget how wide hurricanes can be. They focus on the center and the cone in the forecast but you can have dangerous winds and flooding 100's of km away.
I'm in south central Georgia, almost 600 km from the center of circulation, and we have flash flood warnings thru tommorrow morning. Isaac is a big boy even if he isn't a hurricane yet - new situation report in 30 minutes may change his status.
Legal considerations provided by: Dewey, Cheatum, and Howe
GEEZER From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 1423 posts, RR: 1 Reply 13, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 1159 times:
Quoting okie (Reply 6): They will not evacuate New Orleans unless it looks to be a Cat 3.
New Orleans did fine with Katrina it just was the levy failure that cause the issues. Billions upon billions of dollars were spent on the levies around NO since. I would suspect they should do fine with a Cat 1 storm surge with that investment.
I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.
Charley
Stupidity: Doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result; Albert Einstein
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10471 posts, RR: 20 Reply 14, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 1138 times:
Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13):
I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.
I'm hoping it will hold.
In either case, it seems more people will be watching what happens in Louisiana than will be watching Ann Romney telling us what a great guy her hubby is.
Quote:
...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...
A HURRICANE WARNING IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS
A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
DECREASE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
BE NEAR OR OVER THE LOUISANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.
THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)">BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.
RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7
TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.
okie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 2378 posts, RR: 3 Reply 15, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1129 times:
Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13): I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.
Issac is still a Tropical Storm at this stage (70mph) but you are correct that it might be a good test to see if there are any problems with the design. I am sure the Corp of Engineers are breathing with relief since they would prefer not want to test it with a Cat 5 and a 25ft surge on the first try.
us330 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 3746 posts, RR: 14 Reply 16, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1123 times:
Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13): I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not
Was watching NBC News last night--they interviewed an african-american lady who came up with one of the best quotes re Isaac, and asked her why she was evacuating. Her response "I have faith in God, I don't have faith in the wall."
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 17, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 1123 times:
Quoting okie (Reply 15): sac is still a Tropical Storm at this stage (70mph) but you are correct that it might be a good test to see if there are any problems with the design. I am sure the Corp of Engineers are breathing with relief since they would prefer not want to test it with a Cat 5 and a 25ft surge on the first try.
I think on the loops. Issac is starting to look a lot stronger. I use the following blog for all the nice graphics and images everyone aggregates. Dr. Masters has also started making appearences on TWC, since their aquisition of The WeatherUnderground.
rfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 6150 posts, RR: 25 Reply 18, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1118 times:
Quoting casinterest (Reply 17): I still can't believe they only designed the levees for a Category 3 storm.
A Cat IV or Cat V storm has too much potential for damage to risk the people of the city. They need to evacuate if a storm that strong is predicted. If the Corps said the levees were designed for a Cat V - no one would leave when an evacuation order was issued.
Hopefully the city of New Orleans and the state of Louisiana have their acts together now and can actually evacuate people rather than abandoning them.
The biggest threat to New Orleans continues to be a storm striking to the east, which allows the winds to throw the waters of Lake Pontchartrain against the seawall and into the city.
A storm to the south or west of the city has to flood 30+ miles of marsh land before the city gets in danger.
So far it looks like the storm will go to the west.
Also currently the Mississippi River is very low, so it has plenty of room to absorb any storm surge.
Another factor for New Orleans is that the pump system has to be able to deal with any rain. It doesn't run off into the river or lake - it has to be pumped out. The new pumps should get a good test.
Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 10471 posts, RR: 20 Reply 20, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1104 times:
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 21, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1102 times:
Quoting Revelation (Reply 20): The 7AM CDT update (ie 40 mins ago) says not quite:
Quote:
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...
The latest advisory says no,
But the last dropsonde by the Hurricane hunters found 80 mph surface winds and around 970 surface pressure. So on the 10 AM CDT, it will be Hurricane Cat 1.
Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
MadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10243 posts, RR: 40 Reply 22, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 1090 times:
Quoting casinterest (Reply 21): the last dropsonde by the Hurricane hunters found 80 mph surface winds and around 970 surface pressure. So on the 10 AM CDT, it will be Hurricane Cat 1.
thank you
So uurricane Isaac is now a category 1
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 23, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1088 times:
casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 3280 posts, RR: 1 Reply 24, posted (8 months 4 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 1067 times:
HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012
...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...
REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.
SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES
$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN
There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
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