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Isaac, Where Is Landfall  
User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 3
Posted (2 years 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2248 times:

Issac to reach as much as Cat II by landfall.

Interesting note that I was talking to a friend who works for an international oil company Fri the 17th to discuss other things than hurricanes and he indicated that he was busy scheduling and rescheduling work and removing non essential personnel in the GOM for the impending storm.

Quite interesting that I mentioned that at that point the weather channel was indicating it would hit Tampa and not effect much west in the GOM. He corrected me and said that all their models show that Mobile would be the target. It will be quite interesting to see how close their data plays out. He also made the comment that they were in the business of saving lives and protecting the environment not worrying where the RNC is being held.

I made a trip along US 90 in July 2005 just before Katrina between Bay St Louis and Mobile and commented about how close the structures were to the water with only a few feet of rise in elevation. If there was the 20 ft storm surges you here about then even the roofs would be underwater. We know how that turned out. I just did a google satellite view of the area and would say less than 50% of the structures were rebuilt. There is a lot of concrete for foundations, driveways, and parking lots on empty lots but no buildings.

Lets hope there is not much damage or any loss of life.

Okie

25 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinestasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3280 posts, RR: 6
Reply 1, posted (2 years 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2237 times:

What I'm hearing from the meteorologists is that the longer Isaac stays over the warm water of the Gulf, the more likely the storm could reach category 3..... which would put the levees in the New Orleans area under intense pressure again, as well as the parishes along the Louisiana Gulf that may not be protected by the levee system at all. Praying that the storm weakens, but these damn storms are so unpredictable. The oil rigs in the eastern Gulf are on stand-by for evacuation as well according to CNN - so there goes jet fuel and gasoline prices up - again.   


"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 2, posted (2 years 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2233 times:

Quoting okie (Thread starter):
I made a trip along US 90 in July 2005 just before Katrina between Bay St Louis and Mobile

I've made several trips along that route.

The most impressive was in May 1970. There were still a couple 300 - 400 ft long ships two blocks inland in Biloxi and Gulfport. My last trip along that route was 2005 and noted that the coast was even more built up than in 1969.

The beachfront homes destroyed in Ivan in 2004 were already being rebuilt on Dauphine Island.


User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 3
Reply 3, posted (2 years 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 2219 times:

Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 1):
The oil rigs in the eastern Gulf are on stand-by for evacuation as well according to CNN - so there goes jet fuel and gasoline prices up - again

I believe from my conversation with my friend that the oil companies are about a week ahead of the media.
The last thing they want is a loss of life or an environmental problem.

You are correct about the oil prices, last week the commodity price went through the roof on Orange Juice because possibility of damage to Orange trees. You can rest assured with the part of the GOM shut in and the Venezuelan refinery blast that oil prices will be going up. Even producing wells/platforms will take the opportunity while they are shut in to make maintenance repairs and up grades along with inspections before coming back on line.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 2):
I've made several trips along that route.

We had a regular poster here that made the trip down through US90 in late 2005 or early spring of 2006 with lots of pictures showing all the damage. It was quite amazing.

Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 1):
..... which would put the levees in the New Orleans area under intense pressure again, as well as the parishes along the Louisiana Gulf that may not be protected by the levee system at all.

Interesting that New Orleans did not get much damage from Katrina itself but from the levies failing. I was watching CNN along with other channels as well and when the reporters came out of their hotels on Bourbon St declared all was OK until several hours later that they discovered the levies had failed.

Okie


User currently offlinetexan From New Zealand, joined Dec 2003, 4276 posts, RR: 52
Reply 4, posted (2 years 4 days ago) and read 2211 times:

The landing will be heavily influenced by the location and strength of a high pressure system. If the centre of the high pressure stays west, Ivan will likely track towards Louisiana or, at the edge of possibility to the Louisiana/Texas border. But a more easterly high pressure centre could drive the storm toward Pensacola. There is still a lot of uncertainty about this storm, but it seems likely to be a Cat 2 storm making landfall between Mobile and Southern Louisiana. Gulfport/Biloxi is in the firing line right now, with the worst storm surge being forecast for there and the N.O. area. But this forecast could change 3-4 times in the next couple of days.

Right now it is forecast to make landfall on late Tuesday or early Wednesday. If it makes landfall on Wednesday, that'd be 7 years to the day of Hurricane Katrina's landfall.

Texan



"I have always imagined that Paradise will be a kind of library."
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 5, posted (2 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2121 times:

RSOE EDIS is showing Isaac will make landfall as Category 3????

http://hisz.rsoe.hu/alertmap/index2.php

Isaac is going to hit on the 7th year anniversary of Katrina.

 Wow!


Another live radar:
http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php

I am reading reports about some really bad storms in Florida
Those of you living in these areas or visiting there, please keep safe!

  

[Edited 2012-08-27 09:17:29]


There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (2 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2110 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 5):
RSOE EDIS is showing Isaac will make landfall as Category 3????

Right now the Tropical Storm is in a area that has warm water for development but not the upper atmosphere to support development.
Uneducated guess is that it will have trouble to even make a Cat 2.

They will not evacuate New Orleans unless it looks to be a Cat 3.
New Orleans did fine with Katrina it just was the levy failure that cause the issues. Billions upon billions of dollars were spent on the levies around NO since. I would suspect they should do fine with a Cat 1 storm surge with that investment.

Okie


User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (2 years 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2100 times:

Let's looks at the postives folks.
As long as Issac remains below Cat 2, I think the benefits of the storm will outweigh the destruction.

Many farmers that sill have salvageable crops may benefit handily from this storm. Some areas may get a bit too much,
but in many marignal areas, this storm could be a gamechanger for some crops.


http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinecmf From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (2 years 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2085 times:

Quoting okie (Thread starter):
Quite interesting that I mentioned that at that point the weather channel was indicating it would hit Tampa and not effect much west in the GOM. He corrected me and said that all their models show that Mobile would be the target. It will be quite interesting to see how close their data plays out. He also made the comment that they were in the business of saving lives and protecting the environment not worrying where the RNC is being held.

People often forget how wide hurricanes can be. They focus on the center and the cone in the forecast but you can have dangerous winds and flooding 100's of km away.

Combine the later with the wide discrepancy in the models and it really becomes unimportant where it will hit. All that matters is if you're in the danger zone and how much time you need to make your preparations.


User currently offlineiowaman From United States of America, joined May 2004, 4391 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (2 years 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2067 times:
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Where ever it hits, we are desperately hoping for some rain in the midwest. It is too late for a lot of the corn crop here in northern Iowa, but the soybeans still have a shot if we can some decent rainfall.


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User currently offlineZANL188 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 3520 posts, RR: 0
Reply 10, posted (2 years 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2036 times:
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Quoting cmf (Reply 8):
People often forget how wide hurricanes can be. They focus on the center and the cone in the forecast but you can have dangerous winds and flooding 100's of km away.

  

I'm in south central Georgia, almost 600 km from the center of circulation, and we have flash flood warnings thru tommorrow morning. Isaac is a big boy even if he isn't a hurricane yet - new situation report in 30 minutes may change his status.



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User currently offlineZANL188 From United States of America, joined Oct 2006, 3520 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (2 years 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 2018 times:
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Still a TS although forecasted to strengthen to hurricane status over the next 8 hours or so..


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User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12458 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (2 years 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 2007 times:

The coastline in red below is where hurricane warnings are being issued:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/storm_graphics/AT09/refresh/AL0912W5_NL+gif/211339W5_NL_sm.gif

Seems like the Nation will be getting a seven year reminder of Katrina, although it seems to be no where near as severe.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineGEEZER From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 1479 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (2 years 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 1943 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 6):
They will not evacuate New Orleans unless it looks to be a Cat 3.
New Orleans did fine with Katrina it just was the levy failure that cause the issues. Billions upon billions of dollars were spent on the levies around NO since. I would suspect they should do fine with a Cat 1 storm surge with that investment.

I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.


Charley



Stupidity: Doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result; Albert Einstein
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12458 posts, RR: 25
Reply 14, posted (2 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1922 times:

Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13):

I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.

I'm hoping it will hold.

In either case, it seems more people will be watching what happens in Louisiana than will be watching Ann Romney telling us what a great guy her hubby is.

Selected bits of the latest advisory from http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/280854.shtml

Quote:

...ISAAC ON THE VERGE OF BECOMING A HURRICANE...SIGNIFICANT
STORM SURGE AND FRESHWATER FLOOD THREAT TO THE NORTHERN GULF
COAST...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN EFFECT FOR...
* EAST OF MORGAN CITY LOUISIANA TO THE ALABAMA-FLORIDA BORDER...
INCLUDING METROPOLITAN NEW ORLEANS...LAKE PONTCHARTRAIN...AND LAKE
MAUREPAS

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 400 AM CDT...0900 UTC...THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM ISAAC WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 27.5 NORTH...LONGITUDE 88.1 WEST. ISAAC IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 12 MPH...19 KM/H...AND THIS GENERAL
MOTION IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE FOR THE NEXT DAY OR TWO WITH A
DECREASE AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN FORWARD SPEED. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CENTER WILL
BE NEAR OR OVER THE LOUISANA COAST TONIGHT OR EARLY WEDNESDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS ARE NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/H...WITH HIGHER
GUSTS. STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST...AND ISAAC IS LIKELY TO BECOME A
HURRICANE LATER TODAY. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS FORECAST UNTIL
THE CENTER MOVES INLAND.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 205 MILES...335 KM
FROM THE CENTER.

THE MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED NEW: Thomsonfly (United Kingdom)">BY AN AIR FORCE RESERVE
HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT WAS 977 MB...28.85 INCHES.

RAINFALL...ISAAC IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS OF 7
TO 14 INCHES...WITH POSSIBLE ISOLATED MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 20
INCHES...AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN SOUTHEASTERN LOUISIANA...SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI...
SOUTHERN ALABAMA...AND THE EXTREME WESTERN FLORIDA PANHANDLE.
THESE RAINS COULD RESULT AT Macedonian Airlines (Greece)">IN SIGNIFICANT LOWLAND FLOODING.

NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...700 AM CDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1000 AM CDT.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3010 posts, RR: 3
Reply 15, posted (2 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1913 times:

Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13):
I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not.

Issac is still a Tropical Storm at this stage (70mph) but you are correct that it might be a good test to see if there are any problems with the design. I am sure the Corp of Engineers are breathing with relief since they would prefer not want to test it with a Cat 5 and a 25ft surge on the first try.

Okie


User currently offlineus330 From United States of America, joined Aug 2000, 3871 posts, RR: 14
Reply 16, posted (2 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1907 times:

Quoting GEEZER (Reply 13):
I spent a lot of time watching them build that huge big sea wall ( on TV ) to protect New Orleans from storm surge; this storm may very well prove whether the new sea wall "works" or not

Was watching NBC News last night--they interviewed an african-american lady who came up with one of the best quotes re Isaac, and asked her why she was evacuating. Her response "I have faith in God, I don't have faith in the wall."


User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 17, posted (2 years 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 1907 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 15):
sac is still a Tropical Storm at this stage (70mph) but you are correct that it might be a good test to see if there are any problems with the design. I am sure the Corp of Engineers are breathing with relief since they would prefer not want to test it with a Cat 5 and a 25ft surge on the first try.

I think on the loops. Issac is starting to look a lot stronger. I use the following blog for all the nice graphics and images everyone aggregates. Dr. Masters has also started making appearences on TWC, since their aquisition of The WeatherUnderground.

http://www.wunderground.com/blog/Jef...Masters/comment.html?entrynum=2209

I still can't believe they only designed the levees for a Category 3 storm. New Orleans has everything to lose by being below sea level.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 18, posted (2 years 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1902 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 17):
I still can't believe they only designed the levees for a Category 3 storm.

A Cat IV or Cat V storm has too much potential for damage to risk the people of the city. They need to evacuate if a storm that strong is predicted. If the Corps said the levees were designed for a Cat V - no one would leave when an evacuation order was issued.

Hopefully the city of New Orleans and the state of Louisiana have their acts together now and can actually evacuate people rather than abandoning them.

The biggest threat to New Orleans continues to be a storm striking to the east, which allows the winds to throw the waters of Lake Pontchartrain against the seawall and into the city.

A storm to the south or west of the city has to flood 30+ miles of marsh land before the city gets in danger.

So far it looks like the storm will go to the west.

Also currently the Mississippi River is very low, so it has plenty of room to absorb any storm surge.

Another factor for New Orleans is that the pump system has to be able to deal with any rain. It doesn't run off into the river or lake - it has to be pumped out. The new pumps should get a good test.


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 19, posted (2 years 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1891 times:

Can anyone read this? Is the TS now Category 1?

Dropsonde Observations

000
UZNT13 KWBC 281254
XXAA 78128 99274 70876 08177 99988 25805 19570 00606 ///// /////
92581 22605 19077 85318 19814 21064 88999 77999
31313 09608 81225
61616 NOAA2 3009A ISAAC OB 20
62626 SPL 2747N08757W 1229 MBL WND 19077 AEV 30000 DLM WND 20066
988752 WL150 19072 083 REL 2741N08760W 122550 SPG 2747N08757W 122
905 =
XXBB 78128 99274 70876 08177 00988 25805 11850 19814 22764 17010
33752 14800
21212 00988 19570 11983 19067 22970 18577 33939 19081 44909 19574
55896 20067 66850 21064 77752 22054
31313 09608 81225
61616 NOAA2 3009A ISAAC OB 20
62626 SPL 2747N08757W 1229 MBL WND 19077 AEV 30000 DLM WND 20066
988752 WL150 19072 083 REL 2741N08760W 122550 SPG 2747N08757W 122
905 =

 http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAREPNT3.shtml



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12458 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (2 years 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1888 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 19):
Can anyone read this? Is the TS now Category 1?

The 7AM CDT update (ie 40 mins ago) says not quite:

Quote:

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...

Ref: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/281149.shtml



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 21, posted (2 years 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 1886 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 20):
The 7AM CDT update (ie 40 mins ago) says not quite:

Quote:

NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
700 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIND ISAAC NEARLY A HURRICANE...


Ref: http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh...shtml

The latest advisory says no,
But the last dropsonde by the Hurricane hunters found 80 mph surface winds and around 970 surface pressure. So on the 10 AM CDT, it will be Hurricane Cat 1.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 22, posted (2 years 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 1874 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 21):
the last dropsonde by the Hurricane hunters found 80 mph surface winds and around 970 surface pressure. So on the 10 AM CDT, it will be Hurricane Cat 1.

thank you

So uurricane Isaac is now a category 1

  



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 23, posted (2 years 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 1872 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 22):
hank you

So uurricane Isaac is now a category 1

Not a hurricane until the NHC officially says so, but if they were to issue a statement right now, it would be.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4588 posts, RR: 2
Reply 24, posted (2 years 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 1851 times:

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/MIATCPAT4+shtml/281458.shtml
Guess they can''t find a consistant Surface wind to upgrade it.

Still a Tropical Storm. Better news storm surge wise.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10893 posts, RR: 37
Reply 25, posted (2 years 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 1828 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 24):
Still a Tropical Storm. Better news storm surge wise.

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE STATUS... ...U.S. Warnings in Effect...

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/cyclones/

HURRICANE ISAAC TROPICAL CYCLONE UPDATE
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL092012
1120 AM CDT TUE AUG 28 2012

...RECONNAISSANCE DATA INDICATE ISAAC FINALLY ACHIEVES HURRICANE
STATUS...

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT
INDICATE THAT MAXIMUM WINDS ASSOCIATED WITH ISAAC HAVE INCREASED
TO 75 MPH...120 KM/H. ON THIS BASIS...ISAAC IS BEING UPGRADED TO
A HURRICANE.

SUMMARY OF 1120 AM CDT...1620 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...28.1N 88.6W
ABOUT 75 MI...115 KM SSE OF THE MOUTH OF THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER
ABOUT 160 MI...250 KM SE OF NEW ORLEANS LOUISIANA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...975 MB...28.79 INCHES

$$
FORECASTER STEWART/BEVEN


  



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
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