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Rep Party Ditch Romney For Ryan / Rubio Ticket?  
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8195 posts, RR: 54
Posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3790 times:

Seems to me Romney cannot win this. He is permanently a few points behind in the polls - now 5% according to a WSJ poll on the TV that's on next to me in the hotel here in Sydney. Every time he opens his mouth, it's either a new gaffe or damage control on the one before. Remember when the convention, the daring veep pick and the debates were going to turn it around? Well he's had two out of three and it hasn't worked. My prediction is the debates will be a disaster. Seriously, the more we learn about this guy, the less likely he is to win. Obama is not a great president and doesn't deserve automatic reelection but it could end up being a landslide.

Parties don't like to lose elections and I am sure many Republicans are watching this campaign through a hole in a piece of cardboard, incredibly frustrated after the 2008 debacle. Ryan (of whom I am not a fan* at all) seems a better candidate and a livelier character, and Rubio did pretty well at an otherwise lucklustre (I am being kind) convention**, and will get a lot of votes from multicultural America that are off limits to the current ticket.

My footnotes aside, this is a serious question - is it too late, and they'll just have to tough it out and hope that by 2016 they'll be able to assemble a ticket that isn't a car crash? Or can the Republicans ditch the unelectable Romney and go with a ticket that might beat Obama?

* an Ayn Rand fan who spends their whole working life sucking at the teat of government?!
** problem with women? even the hurricane that threatened them was named after a man.


fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
47 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 1, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 22 hours ago) and read 3767 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
Or can the Republicans ditch the unelectable Romney and go with a ticket that might beat Obama?

This year? No. Early voting starts within 3 weeks. The party would probably lose the house and the senate races in a landslide, along with the presidency.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8960 posts, RR: 24
Reply 2, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3754 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
Seems to me Romney cannot win this. He is permanently a few points behind in the polls - now 5% according to a WSJ poll on the TV that's on next to me in the hotel here in Sydney.

Man, all this negativity is getting me down. Romney is a couple of points behind on most polls, which tend to oversample Democrats, and even the "Likely voter" polls are using participation rates from the 2008 elections, when Obama supporters were more energized than today. A few polls have Romney climbing back on top. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%.

It's a dead heat guys. Don't let the media get you down (my wife is particularly susceptible to that), and show up on election day.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 3, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 21 hours ago) and read 3752 times:

Not happening this year that is for sure. Given that it looks like Obama will win it will be interesting to see who starts to pull out as the front runners for 2016 if that is needed. I still have hope but I think America wants to be fooled again.

If we see little to no improvement in this country in the next 4 years with Obama at the wheel if would be interesting. If that is the case which hopefully things improve a lot no matter who wins in November here but if there is little to no improvement with President Obama I can see Jeb Bush make a run at it. Yes I know, crazy a Bush, another one but this is the right man for President if he would have won his first race to be Florida Governor in 1994 he would have been the Candidate in 2000 and this country would be a much different place right now.



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently onlineMEA-707 From Netherlands, joined Nov 1999, 4358 posts, RR: 35
Reply 4, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3717 times:

Romney and Ryan are officially nominated by the convention, there's no turning back now. Only if Romney dies or withdraws himself, Ryan can run and pick another running mate.
I guess the republicans knew all along it would be hard to beat Obama at this race, incumbent presidents won about 75% of the times in the last 100 years. Potential strong candidates didn't want to waste their time and money and will wait til 2016 when they have a more level playing ground.
It's not for nothing that relative weak candidates were nominated in 1972 (McGovern against Nixon), 1984 (Walter Mondale against Reagan), 1996 (Dole against Clinton) and 2004 (Kerry against Bush).

Rubio or Jeb Bush rather wait for 2016 instead of a Kamikaze act replacing Romney, losing in a landslide and not getting a second chance to run.



nobody has ever died from hard work, but why take the risk?
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3699 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
Man, all this negativity is getting me down. Romney is a couple of points behind on most polls, which tend to oversample Democrats, and even the "Likely voter" polls are using participation rates from the 2008 elections, when Obama supporters were more energized than today. A few polls have Romney climbing back on top. The Rasmussen Reports daily Presidential Tracking Poll for Tuesday shows Mitt Romney attracting support from 47% of voters nationwide, while President Obama earns 45% of the vote. When “leaners” are included, the race is tied with both Obama and Romney at 48%.

Rasmussen's poll is one of the least reliable week over week. It fluctuates quite a bit. I still like using the aggregate polls on real clear politics, which does include Rasmussen

Here's another problem for Romney in Virginia, Colorado, and Ryan's home state of Wiscosin

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...-romney-favors-the-rich/?hpt=hp_t2

"Wisconsin, 55% of likely voters say a Romney administration would benefit wealthy people. In Virginia, 56% say the same. In Colorado, the number is 54%.

The number of voters in those swing states who think Romney's policies would favor the middle class? Just about 10%.

"



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4903 posts, RR: 16
Reply 6, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3692 times:

Don't let me interrupt the party here, but I just wanted to say "Thank You Mr. President, my 401(k) is up 100% since you took office!"

Keep on truckin', bro!   


User currently offlinethegreatRDU From United States of America, joined Mar 2006, 2311 posts, RR: 4
Reply 7, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3691 times:

It's Obama's to lose Mitt Romney suffers from an enthusiasm gap


Our Returning Champion
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 3686 times:

Quoting comorin (Reply 6):
Don't let me interrupt the party here, but I just wanted to say "Thank You Mr. President, my 401(k) is up 100% since you took office!"

Keep on truckin', bro!

Yeah, I still have the graph of mine from 2008. August to December of 2008 was a rough down slope. But sinnce Feb 2x 2009 to now, I am up around 200%, I would imagine i had a much lower base than you did.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 9, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3664 times:

It is always very hard to beat an incumbent. 6-8 months ago I saw it 55/45 Obama now its more 70/30 Obama. At the same time even after everything that has happened for Romney a CNN national poll, so its not that important but still show something has it 50-45 Obama. That is not too bad and there is plenty of time to close the gap. And that is a CNN poll. It has already come out that most polls are polling more democrats than repulbicans due to the turn out of 2008 election and well lets be honest most polls want Obama to win anyway.


"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 10, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3655 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
He is permanently a few points behind in the polls - now 5%
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
Romney is a couple of points behind on most polls

Polls are smoke and mirrors for the Presidential election when they are nationwide.

The only votes that count are electoral votes, and that takes very detailed sampling in individual states to get a good feel for the trends.

Like other recent contests, this election will come down to a couple key states. The rest of us across the nation are just feel good votes.

No, the Republican Party cannot drop Romney.

1) It may not be legal at this point.
2) It is too late to change ballots in many states. Overseas Military Absentee Ballots are due to be mailed in a few days in several states.
3) Replacing Romey would be a HUGE admission that the Republican Party has failed.


User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 11, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3655 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 9):
At the same time even after everything that has happened for Romney a CNN national poll, so its not that important but still show something has it 50-45 Obama.

They stated in that poll that it was done pre video rlease, so not all the news is built in. However these are polls, and they will move.

Dreadnought's poll(rasmussen) has Romney leading by 1 point today vs 2 yesterday. I expect, based on the trends that tommorrow will be even or an Obama Advantage.

Quoting flymia (Reply 9):
It has already come out that most polls are polling more democrats than repulbicans due to the turn out of 2008 election and well lets be honest most polls want Obama to win anyway.

Not all polls are equal, and there are biases in almost all of them. The leading questions can shape answers beyond. However that is why it is best to get a basket like RealClearPolitics and follow them all.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12961 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3589 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 4):

Romney and Ryan are officially nominated by the convention, there's no turning back now. Only if Romney dies or withdraws himself, Ryan can run and pick another running mate.

It reminds me of Chris Rock's joke about why there'd never be a white president with a black vice-president.

Quoting comorin (Reply 6):
Thank You Mr. President, my 401(k) is up 100% since you took office!"

Hooray, you and Mitt Romney are two Americans who are better off now then four years ago!



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20342 posts, RR: 59
Reply 13, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3581 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 3):
Not happening this year that is for sure. Given that it looks like Obama will win it will be interesting to see who starts to pull out as the front runners for 2016 if that is needed. I still have hope but I think America wants to be fooled again.

Four years is a long time. Four years ago, we'd barely heard of Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan. In 2004, Hillary was the Democrat's favorite for 2008.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
1) It may not be legal at this point.
2) It is too late to change ballots in many states. Overseas Military Absentee Ballots are due to be mailed in a few days in several states.
3) Replacing Romey would be a HUGE admission that the Republican Party has failed.

I agree with all points except (1). I am not sure whether there is much legal oversight into the internal workings of political parties. They are ultimately private organizations. Now, whether it would be INTERNALLY legal is another question entirely.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
It's a dead heat guys.

I really do not think it is. I think that Obama is actually further ahead than the polls suggest. Remember that younger voters tend to not have land lines, but rather cell phones and most of those are on the Do Not Call registry, so actually, the polls may undersample Democratic-leaning covers. The big issue, as you imply, will be turnout. If Obama supporters get complacent and don't show up on election day, they might hand the election to Romney.


User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8508 posts, RR: 12
Reply 14, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3561 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
It's a dead heat guys. Don't let the media get you down...

Negative, Ghostrider.

Intrade is a free market and more accurate than polls. Currently Obama is at 67% (chance of being re-elected) and Romney at 33% (chance of being elected). Barring some incredible disaster for the Obama campaign he's going to win.

http://www.intrade.com/v4/markets/contract/?contractId=743474

If the GOP had actually wanted to win they'd would've supported Ron Paul.


User currently offlinecomorin From United States of America, joined May 2005, 4903 posts, RR: 16
Reply 15, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3546 times:

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 14):
Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
It's a dead heat guys. Don't let the media get you down...

Even if it is a dead heat, it's the electoral college votes that count. Right now Obama has likely to lead at 308 votes of a total of 538, with 75% odds of winning the election. Obama has the lead in the swing states, so there is a good statistical chance of a landslide victory for Obama.


User currently offlineER757 From Cayman Islands, joined May 2005, 2607 posts, RR: 7
Reply 16, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3542 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 10):
Like other recent contests, this election will come down to a couple key states. The rest of us across the nation are just feel good votes.

Bingo - nationwide polls are meaningless. Tell me about where we are in OH, FL, PA, MI - with a few other exceptions, the others are already handed to one candidate or the other by a large margin. Example, here in WA where I live, Obama has a double digit lead - I am sure if you polled voters in KS, Romney would show the same there - so throw those numbers out. Only in "battleground states" are polls relevant in painting a picture of where this election will go. And quite frankly, looking at numbers this far ahead of the election is a fool's errand. Who know what may happen in the debates, in world affairs, here in the US that might radically swing the undecided voters between now and election day?


User currently offlineStarAC17 From Canada, joined Aug 2003, 3410 posts, RR: 9
Reply 17, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3514 times:

Quoting ER757 (Reply 16):
Bingo - nationwide polls are meaningless. Tell me about where we are in OH, FL, PA, MI - with a few other exceptions, the others are already handed to one candidate or the other by a large margin.

Obama has leads in all those states, although some are pretty close like OH and FL, PA and MI I think Obama has decent margins. The other states that matter are North Carolina, Virginia, Colorado, Nevada, Iowa, NH, and Wisconsin. The only ones I think Romney has a lead is Colorado, and Virginia, and NC is tied,

Also for anyone who lives in any of these states I hope you all have DVRs because it must be add after add on TV.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Four years is a long time. Four years ago, we'd barely heard of Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan. In 2004, Hillary was the Democrat's favorite for 2008.

Romney was second in 2008 and the GOP tends to give the second place guy the nomination the next time. He was known then and he was vetted for VP and it is rumored that what was in his taxes hurt him then.



Engineers Rule The World!!!!!
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8960 posts, RR: 24
Reply 18, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3502 times:

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 14):
Barring some incredible disaster for the Obama campaign he's going to win.

The disasters have already happened. Worker participation rates plummeting, hiding true unemployment. More people in the world crying "death to America" than ever before. Debt nearly doubled and no no path to improvement, and so forth. But with most of the media working hard to divert attention and blame, Obama has survived it all so far.

Can you imagine the outcry if McCain were president? All the blame would be at his doorstep (and not wrongfully so), and he'd be lucky to have 20% backing in the polls.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 19, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 3493 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 18):
The disasters have already happened. Worker participation rates plummeting, hiding true unemployment. More people in the world crying "death to America" than ever before. Debt nearly doubled and no no path to improvement, and so forth. But with most of the media working hard to divert attention and blame, Obama has survived it all so far.

This highlights exactly why the GOP is failing. Couple it with the Romney " I wish I was Latino statement" It's this sense of us vs them and no real connection with what is happening in America or the reason's it is where it is, which is more than a 4 year story.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20342 posts, RR: 59
Reply 20, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 3460 times:

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 17):
Romney was second in 2008 and the GOP tends to give the second place guy the nomination the next time. He was known then and he was vetted for VP and it is rumored that what was in his taxes hurt him then.

Who was the second-place guy this time? Santorum? Oh yeah, that'll go over brilliantly.

What I'm actually more interested in is what the Democrats will do in 2016. I don't think it will be Biden. I don't think it will be Hillary.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 18):
The disasters have already happened. Worker participation rates plummeting, hiding true unemployment. More people in the world crying "death to America" than ever before. Debt nearly doubled and no no path to improvement, and so forth. But with most of the media working hard to divert attention and blame, Obama has survived it all so far.

Except that's not what's happening. Unemployment is slowly falling. The economy is slowly recovering with economic indicators showing slow recovery. The "media" are mostly run by Conservative concerns, and in spite of the Conservative tendency to label anything --no matter how objective-- that paints Conservatives in a negative light as "liberal bias," what is obvious to a large portion of Americans is that the GOP is actually willfully obstructing any attempt at economic recovery in an attempt to sabotage Obama's presidency.

There is also the fact that the GOP has done plenty of criticism but has made few proposals. They haven't given a proposal for healthcare reform. Their objections to it (especially Romney's) strike a lot of people as hypocritical when the Democrats can put up a video of Mitt Romney himself lauding the individual mandate, for example. When the Democratic President presents Republican-designed legislation and the Republicans call it the most horrible Communist idea ever, Americans start to wonder. When some of the assertions made by the GOP start to imply that half of Americans are deadbeats, Americans get turned off.

So no, it is not the "media" doing it to the GOP. The GOP is doing it to themselves.


User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8508 posts, RR: 12
Reply 21, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3431 times:

Quoting comorin (Reply 15):
Even if it is a dead heat, it's the electoral college votes that count.

And two of them have already stated they're voting for Ron Paul. A third resigned as elector rather than vote for Romney.

Three Ron Paul-Supporting Electors May Not Support Republican Ticket


User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 22, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3410 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
Who was the second-place guy this time? Santorum? Oh yeah, that'll go over brilliantly.

I think we will see Paul Ryan step up as a major party leader and possible candidate. If he doesn't do anything really stupid in the next four years.

But what the heck, I was the guy that predicted Rick Perry would have a lock on the GOP nomination. I knew he was dumb, just not that dumb.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
What I'm actually more interested in is what the Democrats will do in 2016. I don't think it will be Biden. I don't think it will be Hillary.

Hillary will be 69 years old at the time of the 2016 election (que the jokes). That will be too old, especially for a woman.

She had her one good chance to get elected in 2008. Which also makes the birther arguments funny - do they really think Hillary would give up her only chance to be the US President if there was any way she could disqualify Obama?

Biden - heck Dan Quayle probably has a better reputation as VP than Biden. And Quayle is younger than Biden - really - by over 4 years.


User currently offlineqantas077 From Australia, joined Jan 2004, 5869 posts, RR: 39
Reply 23, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3399 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):

First fact in politics. Follow the money...in July Obama raised $75 million and August he raised $115 million, massive increase in anyone's eyes, he beat Romney in August for the first time in 4 months. Dead heat would be dead wrong.



a true friend is someone who sees the pain in your eyes, while everyone else believes the smile on your face.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20342 posts, RR: 59
Reply 24, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3362 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 22):
Hillary will be 69 years old at the time of the 2016 election (que the jokes). That will be too old, especially for a woman.

On top that, she has been the Secretary of State, which is a truly grueling job. I saw an interview with her where she did indicate that she would be stepping down as SoS after 2012. I have not heard much about whether this is still her plan and whether a replacement is being groomed.

I think her plan is to retire. The only step up from her job is President and that train has already sailed.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 22):
She had her one good chance to get elected in 2008. Which also makes the birther arguments funny - do they really think Hillary would give up her only chance to be the US President if there was any way she could disqualify Obama?

No no! She's part of the conspiracy! She's doing that to make you THINK he was born in the U.S.!

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 22):
Biden - heck Dan Quayle probably has a better reputation as VP than Biden.

Biden's biggest issue is that he doesn't have an "emergency cutoff" switch on that whole brain-mouth thing. That's a bit of a problem when you're a politician.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7978 posts, RR: 51
Reply 25, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3420 times:

While I don't think it's quite a tie, Romney is potentially close enough to win (very unlikely, but even the intrade odds of 66%-33% or whatever, a 1 in 3 chance isn't that horrible, roll a die and if it's 1 or 2 (and not 3-6) that's 1 in 3.)

National polls, popular vote, etc do not matter. What matters are the swing states. In just the past few weeks, there were about 4 or 5 states (IIRC) where the President was less than +2%... had something swayed the other way, dropping 2% points would not be that inconceivable and Romney would have had the advantage. We can take polls with a grain of salt, but when we do that, I can see either candidate winning (for example, Democrats could be less excited to come out while Republicans could be more charged up.)

It is somewhat close, but the gap really widened the last few days. Looking at the trends, Romney got a bit of a bump after selecting Ryan, the RNC didn't really factor in, and the DNC helped the President out. Time will tell, I personally can't wait for it to be over. Politics, yuck



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineMD-90 From United States of America, joined Jan 2000, 8508 posts, RR: 12
Reply 26, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3394 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 24):

I think her plan is to retire. The only step up from her job is President and that train has already sailed.

And probably sunk!


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13752 posts, RR: 61
Reply 27, posted (2 years 3 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 3419 times:
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Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
He is permanently a few points behind in the polls

Permanently? Polls don't change, professor?

Damn, I guess we might as well not even have the election then - after all, cedarjet has called it, so...   

Quoting casinterest (Reply 5):
Rasmussen's poll is one of the least reliable

  

On the contrary, Rasmussen tends to be one of the MOST reliable, as they track likely voters rather than the "registered voter" model that the majority of polls do. Check out their history and you'll see their polls have most closely aligned with actual results.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 14):
Barring some incredible disaster for the Obama campaign...

You mean like the electorate actually paying attention to what a horrible job he's done as president?   



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4792 posts, RR: 3
Reply 28, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 3299 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 27):
On the contrary, Rasmussen tends to be one of the MOST reliable, as they track likely voters rather than the "registered voter" model that the majority of polls do. Check out their history and you'll see their polls have most closely aligned with actual results.

Nah,
I don't like the method. They poll 500 people a day over 3 days , and call it a sample of 1500. It is a moving average, but the end result is that actions on one day, and also the small sample size can greatly distort the results day to day.
He can always say his poll "alligned" when he picks one day out of 7 in a week where he was close.


Today's poll for those you are watching has Obama up by 2 47-45 . That's a 3 point swing from yesterday,and 4 from Wednesday
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...n/daily_presidential_tracking_poll



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinePHLBOS From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7558 posts, RR: 23
Reply 29, posted (2 years 3 months 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3210 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
I think that Obama is actually further ahead than the polls suggest. Remember that younger voters tend to not have land lines, but rather cell phones and most of those are on the Do Not Call registry, so actually, the polls may undersample Democratic-leaning covers.

Two things:

1. Political-related calls are exempt from the Do Not Call registry.

2. What makes you think that the majority of cell-phone owners w/out land lines are Democrats? Many older voters w/only land-lines who "feel that the GOP's policies are harmful to them" will most lilkely vote for Democrats.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Four years ago, we'd barely heard of Mitt Romney

IIRC, Romney ran in the GOP Presidential primary in 2008. That was the main reason why he did not seek re-election for Governor of Massachusetts in 2006.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
The big issue, as you imply, will be turnout.

   One of the few statements that has bi-partisan agreement.

For those that think the election is over based on these recent polls; let me remind you of a few things:

1. The debates haven't even started yet. Some debate performances can be game-changers.

2. Back in Sept. 1980, President Carter was ahead of Reagan in the polls. Back in Sept. 1988, MA Gov. Mike Dukakis was ahead of then-VP Bush in the polls. Heck, even in Sept. 2008; many polls had Senator McCain ahead of then-Senator Obama.

3. Depending on the polls' source (read bias); we're probably not going to get a more accurate poll until we get closer to the election if not the election itself (the only poll that will actually matter).

4. FWIW, let's not forget that University of Colorado pollster that rightly predicted every Presidential election (including 2000) since 1980.

http://www.colorado.edu/news/release...win-university-colorado-study-says

Exerpts:

A University of Colorado analysis of state-by-state factors leading to the Electoral College selection of every U.S. president since 1980 forecasts that the 2012 winner will be Mitt Romney.
...
According to their analysis, President Barack Obama will win 218 votes in the Electoral College, short of the 270 he needs. And though they chiefly focus on the Electoral College, the political scientists predict Romney will win 52.9 percent of the popular vote to Obama’s 47.1 percent, when considering only the two major political parties.
...
Their model correctly predicted all elections since 1980, including two years when independent candidates ran strongly, 1980 and 1992. It also correctly predicted the outcome in 2000, when Al Gore received the most popular vote but George W. Bush won the election.


Back to the topic at hand.

As far as replacing people on the ticket; that won't happen unless an individual dies before the election. The GOP can't ditch Romney anymore than the Dems can't ditch Obama or Biden for Hillary on the ticket.



"TransEastern! You'll feel like you've never left the ground because we treat you like dirt!" SNL Parady ad circa 1981
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26812 posts, RR: 75
Reply 30, posted (2 years 3 months 13 hours ago) and read 3073 times:

A Ryan/Rubio ticket would be at least as disastrous as the Romney/Ryan ticket. Ryan is WAY too green on foreign policy and Rubio would alienate non-Cuban Latin voters. The only good to come out of that ticket would be to see Obama systematically destroy Ryan on foreign affairs, then turn around and call out his other lies.

Quoting cedarjet (Thread starter):
Or can the Republicans ditch the unelectable Romney and go with a ticket that might beat Obama?

Not possible, or extremely difficult.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 13):
Four years ago, we'd barely heard of Mitt Romney or Paul Ryan.

Romney was well known, and thought to be McCain's real challenger.

Quoting MD-90 (Reply 14):
If the GOP had actually wanted to win they'd would've supported Ron Paul.

LOL. Right. Put the guy who's name is on disgustingly racist newsletters, who voted against MLK Day and the renewal of the Civil Rights Act against a black guy? Ron Paul is unelectable.

Quoting StarAC17 (Reply 17):
The only ones I think Romney has a lead is Colorado, and Virginia, and NC is tied

Incorrect. The only battleground Romney leads in is NC - by less than 2 points. Obama leads in all the rest.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 20):
What I'm actually more interested in is what the Democrats will do in 2016. I don't think it will be Biden. I don't think it will be Hillary.

Cuomo and Warren are the front runners. Might actually become a ticket together.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 22):
Biden - heck Dan Quayle probably has a better reputation as VP than Biden. And Quayle is younger than Biden - really - by over 4 years.

LOL. Only a hard core GOPer (who apparently thought Rick Perry had any chance at all), could say that. Biden has done a fantastic job, especially as a surrogate for Obama. Quayle was such a laughing stock, his son won't even talk about him in his own political career.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 22):
I think we will see Paul Ryan step up as a major party leader and possible candidate. If he doesn't do anything really stupid in the next four years.

He's already alienated too many swing voters. Seniors hate him, because he wants to destroy Medicare and Social Security. He has zero foreign policy experience and the economy is extremely likely to recover over the next 4 years anyway. He's better off trying to win a WI senate seat, which could actually help his party.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12961 posts, RR: 25
Reply 31, posted (2 years 3 months 13 hours ago) and read 3061 times:

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 29):
The debates haven't even started yet. Some debate performances can be game-changers.

Right, but what's the odds that Romney will show up well in a debate? It seems to me he doesn't think well on his feet. I think he'll come off as being perhaps nervous, probably stiff and almost certainly guarded, and if I was one of his handlers I'd be terrified about what could happen if Mitt got pulled off-message. Both men have had their gaffes, but it seems to me that a debate isn't the best venue for the Romney side. If I recall correctly, he's already taken a few days off from campaigning to prepare for the debates, which to me shows it's a big challenge in his mind.

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 29):
Back in Sept. 1980, President Carter was ahead of Reagan in the polls. Back in Sept. 1988, MA Gov. Mike Dukakis was ahead of then-VP Bush in the polls. Heck, even in Sept. 2008; many polls had Senator McCain ahead of then-Senator Obama.

All true, but I don't think it's preferable to be in the position of needing to have a comeback.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6676 posts, RR: 6
Reply 32, posted (2 years 3 months 13 hours ago) and read 3056 times:
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Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 29):
1. The debates haven't even started yet. Some debate performances can be game-changers.

2. Back in Sept. 1980, President Carter was ahead of Reagan in the polls. Back in Sept. 1988, MA Gov. Mike Dukakis was ahead of then-VP Bush in the polls. Heck, even in Sept. 2008; many polls had Senator McCain ahead of then-Senator Obama.

Absolutely. However, Bush and Obama did not have the same track record that Romney has.

I think that if Romney does perfectly in the debates, that puts him back on par or with Obama, but not over the President. If he stumbles, its all downhill.

In other words, to remain competitive he has to be perfect.

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 29):
3. Depending on the polls' source (read bias)

Yes, that pesky liberal Fox News polls..



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlinezckls04 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 1502 posts, RR: 4
Reply 33, posted (2 years 3 months 12 hours ago) and read 3039 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 31):
Right, but what's the odds that Romney will show up well in a debate?

I think he could do well in the debates with enough preparation. Remember even Biden performed OK in the debates in '08. Admittedly that was against a vastly less experienced foe, but he managed both to stay on point and not be too condescending when rebuffing some of Palin's poorer responses. The latter I think was a miracle considering Biden's obvious contempt for her.

I don't think Romney is a bad speaker when prepared; he's certainly had plenty of experience. Remember how drastically Palin changed between the Katie Couric fiasco and the debates- everybody assumed she would get slayed, and her defeat was marginal IMO. If you can improve Palin that much then Romney should be OK. He just needs to stay focused and not do something dumb like bet somebody $10,000 that they're wrong.

Quoting mt99 (Reply 32):
Yes, that pesky liberal Fox News polls..

Interesting point though- surely the best way to ensure turnout (and as we've all realized, turnout is king in this election), is to energize your base by telling them the other guy is going to win. What good does it do Fox to report a likely Romney victory?



If you're not sure whether to use a piece of punctuation, it's best not to.
User currently offlinestasisLAX From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 3287 posts, RR: 6
Reply 34, posted (2 years 3 months 11 hours ago) and read 3021 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 2):
It's a dead heat guys. Don't let the media get you down (my wife is particularly susceptible to that), and show up on election day.

As mentioned, the popular vote doesn't count (i.e. Bush versus Gore in 2000 - Al Gore won the popular vote, but the Electoral College is heavily weighted to the so-called "swing" states (historically Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia). Notice that states in the South and the West are excluded from the election deciding "swing" state list, although some experts would now include Colorado in the swing state category.

Quoting PHLBOS (Reply 29):
IIRC, Romney ran in the GOP Presidential primary in 2008. That was the main reason why he did not seek re-election for Governor of Massachusetts in 2006.

And the fact that the state deficit was exploding, thus Romney and his team from Bain Capital (he brought a large number of his Bain under-lings with him when he moved to the statehouse) raised property taxes and corporate taxes to close the deficit pissed off most of the Republicans in Massachusetts.... another reason why he didn't seek re-election as Governor - there would have been a battle within the GOP for the nomination.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 30):
LOL. Only a hard core GOPer (who apparently thought Rick Perry had any chance at all), could say that. Biden has done a fantastic job, especially as a surrogate for Obama. Quayle was such a laughing stock, his son won't even talk about him in his own political career.

Dan Quayle's son Ben was a Congressman here in Arizona. Under redistricting, his district was impacted. He was redrawn into a split district from his previous heavily Republican district, and lost his bid for a second term in Congress by a wide margin. Of course, Ben had a well-publicized scandal for his involvement in the "DirtyScottsdale.com" fiasco which painted him as a rich party boy - which cost him votes with conservatives. So Ben Quayle's political career is now as dead of his father's career.



"Those who would give up essential liberty to purchase temporary safety deserve neither liberty nor safety!" B.Franklin
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 35, posted (2 years 3 months 11 hours ago) and read 3022 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 30):
Biden has done a fantastic job, especially as a surrogate for Obama.

He may have done a good job, however, he is constantly portrayed in the media as a bad joke.

Reality doesn't matter - perception is what matters.

Quoting N1120A (Reply 30):
who apparently thought Rick Perry had any chance at all

He had the people and the money behind him who put George W. Bush in the White House. They thought they could elect another puppet.

As I've said many times since 2000, the worst thing George W. Bush did was leaving us in Texas with Rick Perry as governor.


User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26812 posts, RR: 75
Reply 36, posted (2 years 3 months 11 hours ago) and read 3007 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 35):
He may have done a good job, however, he is constantly portrayed in the media as a bad joke.

If by "media" you mean Fox News/Business, Limbaugh, Hannity, etc. I guess.

Anyway, Biden is ridiculously popular among the groups that he acts as surrogate with.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 35):
He had the people and the money behind him who put George W. Bush in the White House. They thought they could elect another puppet.

The problem is that the Dumb Texan shtick doesn't play anymore.

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 35):
As I've said many times since 2000, the worst thing George W. Bush did was leaving us in Texas with Rick Perry as governor.

LOL. Governor Toll Road.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlinezippyjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2001, 5549 posts, RR: 13
Reply 37, posted (2 years 3 months 4 hours ago) and read 2973 times:

Quoting MEA-707 (Reply 4):
and 2004 (Kerry against Bush).

But for a President running for re-election this was one of the closest races. Not as close as 2000 but in 2004 Ohio was the state in question. It was a dead heat going into the final weekend before election day and miraculously that a-hole Bin Laden comes on TV and the rest was history..

If Obama gets re-elected and completely serves out his second term this will be the first time in US history at least in my lifetime that there were three Presidential administrations back to back that served two terms back to back. Were there any other sets of three in our history? I'm exluding FDR since he ran and won four times in a row and hence the 22nd. ammendmant to our Constitution.

Also, my opinion; if the President gets re-elected then campaign 2016 will officially get underway. I remember back in 2004 when W won re-election there was that same sentiment going around me included.



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User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 20342 posts, RR: 59
Reply 38, posted (2 years 3 months 4 hours ago) and read 2965 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 32):
I think that if Romney does perfectly in the debates, that puts him back on par or with Obama, but not over the President. If he stumbles, its all downhill.

In other words, to remain competitive he has to be perfect.

Yes, well, if Mr. Romney has shown us anything this campaign it's that he sure does have a way with words...

...much in the way that Mrs. O'Leary's cow had a way with gas lamps.


User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 32
Reply 39, posted (2 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2931 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
If by "media" you mean Fox News/Business, Limbaugh, Hannity, etc. I guess.

No - I don't waste my time with the 'Fair and Balanced' Fake News and those other fools.

I mean CNN, CBS, ABC, NBC. Practically the only time Biden makes the national TV news is when he makes a mistake. And a lot of voters still watch the network TV news.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12961 posts, RR: 25
Reply 40, posted (2 years 2 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 2917 times:

Quoting N1120A (Reply 36):
Biden is ridiculously popular among the groups that he acts as surrogate with.
Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 39):
Practically the only time Biden makes the national TV news is when he makes a mistake.

Both statements are true.

At least Romney now has someone he can send to talk to the AARP on his behalf:

Quote:

Ryan was greeted with polite applause when he walked on stage. But that didn't last long. Not long after he began to speak, he mentioned Obamacare, and obviously not with the president's affection for the law.

RYAN: "Today, our nation faces a political turning point. Government mismanagement and political cowardice are threatening both sides of LBJ's pledge. Seniors are threatened by 'Obamacare,' a law that would force steep cuts to real benefits in real time for real people."(Shouts, boos.)

"Meanwhile — (boos) — meanwhile, younger Americans are burdened by an ever-growing national debt and a diminished future."

"Here's the good news. By embracing common-sense reforms now, we can get ahead of the problem and keep promises people have organized their lives around. You see, if we reform Medicare for my generation, we can protect it for those in or near retirement today." (Applause.)

"The first step to a stronger Medicare is to repeal 'Obamacare,' because it represents the worst of both worlds." (Boos.)

"I had a feeling there would be mixed reactions, so let me get into it. (Boos.) It weakens Medicare for today's seniors and puts it at risk for the next generation. (Boos.) First, it funnels $716 billion out of Medicare to pay for a new entitlement we didn't even ask for. (Boos.) Second, it puts 15 unelected bureaucrats in charge of Medicare's future."

And so it went for Ryan. When boos weren't accompanied by a smattering of cheers, there was silence.

Ref: http://www.npr.org/blogs/itsallpolit...rce=twitterfeed&utm_medium=twitter

Kind of reminds one of Romney's speech to the NAACP, no?

Too bad he didn't ask them what they were paying in income taxes and if they had a victim mentality or not.

Seems like they get better treatment when they stick to private dinners at the homes of 1%ers.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8195 posts, RR: 54
Reply 41, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 3 days ago) and read 2632 times:

It's only got much worse since I posted this OP a week or two back - most of you have seen this awful 15 sec clip of Romney obviously feeling awfully insecure about his role in the ticket.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1j1b8hZg0g

Loved one of the headlines on this story - Crowd Goes Mild When "Stiff" Romney Tries To Lead Them In A Ra-Ra Chant - must remember that one.



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineN1120A From United States of America, joined Dec 2003, 26812 posts, RR: 75
Reply 42, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2592 times:

Quoting zckls04 (Reply 33):
Remember even Biden performed OK in the debates in '08

OK? Biden destroyed Palin under some very difficult constraints.

You don't have as successful a career as Biden without being a good politician.

Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 34):
although some experts would now include Colorado in the swing state category.

"Some experts?" Colorado is very firmly a "swing state" now. That said, it might not stay on the list very long, as Colorado's demographics are shifting quickly and firmly to the left.

Quoting stasisLAX (Reply 34):
(historically Ohio, Pennsylvania, Florida, Michigan, Iowa, Wisconsin, New Hampshire, and Virginia). Notice that states in the South and the West are excluded from the election deciding "swing" state list

You left out Colorado, Nevada and New Mexico (making the same move as Colorado, however).

Also, Michigan is not at "historical" swing state. Michigan has played into this election because Romney is from there and there has been a light evangelical influence. Generally, Michigan's labor influence is too strong.



Mangeons les French fries, mais surtout pratiquons avec fierte le French kiss
User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 43, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2566 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 41):
It's only got much worse since I posted this OP a week or two back - most of you have seen this awful 15 sec clip of Romney obviously feeling awfully insecure about his role in the ticket.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=M1j1b8hZg0g

Loved one of the headlines on this story - Crowd Goes Mild When "Stiff" Romney Tries To Lead Them In A Ra-Ra Chant - must remember that one.

  
I was waiting for someone to post this. I guess your hearing is not too great? I clearly hear Romeny, Romeny....
And so did everyone else at the event.
http://www.theblaze.com/stories/anot...rk-misled-in-video-of-rally-chant/
MSNBC is a disgusting excuse for a media outlet and if anyone wants to call Fox "Faux" news everyone so go ahead and give MSBNC, "MSBS"

And from the none right Huffington Post:

Quote:
UPDATE: A reporter who attended the event contacted The Huffington Post to say that the crowd was chanting Romney's name, not Ryan's, and that Romney added his running mate's name to the chant, not the other way around.
http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2012/0...us_n_1915975.html?utm_hp_ref=media

And hear from the New York Times out of all places:

Quote:
After Mr. Ryan whooped up the crowd in Vandalia on Tuesday, Mr. Romney moved to the front of the stage. As the crowd began chanting “Romney! Romney!” he cut them off.“Wait a second,” Mr. Romney said, instructing the audience to cheer for “Romney-Ryan! Romney-Ryan!” They did.
http://www.nytimes.com/2012/09/26/us...ning-together-more-often.html?_r=0
At least I use sources unlike NBC.
Likelyhood we hear about this on other news outlets? I am not sure. CNN usually does not mind bashing MSNBC and I magine Fox will.



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8195 posts, RR: 54
Reply 44, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2515 times:

Poor Republicans will say anything to change the facts. Sorry, they're chanting Ryan, Ryan until Romney corrects them.

Quoting flymia (Reply 43):
I was waiting for someone to post this. I guess your hearing is not too great? I clearly hear Romeny, Romeny....

You guess my hearing is not too great? Guess again - I'm a musician and my hearing is fantastic. So are you telling me C-Span edited the tape, or are the crowd in fact chanting Ryan (which would make sense as he's just been introduced)?

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/clip/3985077



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7279 posts, RR: 6
Reply 45, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2507 times:

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 44):
Poor Republicans will say anything to change the facts. Sorry, they're chanting Ryan, Ryan until Romney corrects them.


Democrats never using logic or facts. I was not there. I am just going by what I hear PLUS what the people who were actually there heard including a New York Times reporter. So I think I am going to go with me + everyone who is there and not you and MSNBC (MSBS).

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 44):
I'm a musician and my hearing is fantastic.


If you are around music all the time would that not hurt your hearing? (joke)

Quoting cedarjet (Reply 44):
So are you telling me C-Span edited the tape


No. What I am saying is for events like this the crowd is purposely taken off the mic a bit so it really depends what you are listening for. When I first saw the clip on MSNBC I thought it said Ryan too. I was trying to hear Ryan since they had a big "RYAN RYAN" on the screen. After listening to a fresh version I heard Romney and maybe some Ryan. So when the people there are telling everyone that it was Romney not Ryan I am going to go ahead and take their hearing over mine especially when a NY Times writer wrote it was "Romney Romney" before this even became an issue. Romney wants the cheer to be Ryan-Romney, he was being nice to Ryan not insecure about himself. A guy does not get to the position he is in, in the world by being insecure. That is one thing he is not.

You want to believe what you want to believe. I am just making my decision on the facts.



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8195 posts, RR: 54
Reply 46, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 2 days 8 hours ago) and read 2504 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 45):
So I think I am going to go with me + everyone who is there and not you and MSNBC (MSBS).

The clip I posted is C-Span. Here it is again.

http://www.c-spanvideo.org/clip/3985077

Seriously, do you hear anyone chanting Romney, before the eponymous correction?



fly Saha Air 707s daily from Tehran's downtown Mehrabad to Mashhad, Kish Island and Ahwaz
User currently offlinecedarjet From United Kingdom, joined May 1999, 8195 posts, RR: 54
Reply 47, posted (2 years 2 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2359 times:

Btw - turns out I was wrong about the prospects for the Republicans if Ryan was at the top of the ticket. "“47%” Was Bad For Romney; Ryan Has Been Deadly" according to the New Republic.

http://www.tnr.com/blog/107829/47-was-bad-romney-ryan-has-been-deadly#

Interesting reading!

[Edited 2012-09-30 11:03:43]


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