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Romney Opens Lead In Ohio  
User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1936 posts, RR: 21
Posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3983 times:

For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ.../ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

230 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4636 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3976 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state

Being the first doesn't do much good in polling, especially if you are the "only"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

The real clear politics still shows that the +2 is within the 4 point margin of error for a 1 day poll by Rasmussen.
It remains to be seen if it is an outlier or credible, The early voting is trending for Obama currently, so I don't know if the "planning to vote for" question on the automated system is causing an issue for the numbers.

We'll know for sure on Nov 6.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6600 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 3976 times:
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Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ma-50-romney-46-in-ohio/?hpt=hp_t2

"PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m.../10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html

Anywho,

Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

[Edited 2012-10-29 08:51:08]


Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11383 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3955 times:

fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.


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User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29802 posts, RR: 58
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3944 times:

I hope it is true.... For the the future of the nation


OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7919 posts, RR: 52
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 3931 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No but it's the easiest way to 270. He can win NV, IA, and NH I believe but I think he's closer to winning OH than NV. There are lots of scenarios, but I still stand by whoever wins OH will win the presidency, and despite this poll, I think it'll be the President, narrowly.

Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really. Just within the margins of error of most of the swing state polls, it's likely that it could be a close race or one of the candidates can win by quite a bit. If you assume that the polls are not dead on and might favor one candidate or another, you may see even a landslide

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight? I've paid attention more during this election and am very young, so I could be wrong, but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen. I've heard fivethrityeight being so great, intrade odds never being wrong (for the past two elections, cough cough,) some University of Colorado model predicting Romney will win (and it supposedly was fed past data and was right for every election since 1980) so it seems like there are going to be a lot of wrong models this go around.

There is one model that I've seen that works 100% of the time, and the results of this model are going to be out in only 8 days...  



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8847 posts, RR: 24
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3879 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)

I don't think that anyone has ever said they were worthless. Just historically they tend to be weighted 2-3 points in favor of the democratic candidate. Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

But of course, the overall popular vote is meaningless. Theoretically you could have nearly 75% of the population vote for Candidate A and Candidate B could still win the electoral college.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11383 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3871 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight?

The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)



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User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1834 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3870 times:

In the Rasmussen article it says that only 1% of Ohio voters are 'undecided'. Is that normal at this point? This is only the second US election that I have ever followed, so I don't have much experience to go on, but I had always assumed this number would be much higher, especially given how divisive the state is.

Speaking from the experience that I do have, in Canada we often have a much higher rate of undecided voters, but I guess that is because we have 5 major parties as opposed to two, so the voters have a little more research to do.

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio

These numbers are statistically irrelevant (in the sense that they don't necessarily pose a definitive conclusion). Rasmussen reports a +/- 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, which in this context means a 50-48 may not be a lead at all. That said, neither side should get excited, it's still a toss-up as you mentioned later on in your post.

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really.

   Agreed, but it does depend on the state.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen

They say that about all the major sports championships every year too...it's just a marketing tool to get people to pay more attention to their polls.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11383 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3863 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 8):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7919 posts, RR: 52
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 3850 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)

Makes sense. This implies that there isn't a bias in polling... it will be interesting to see whether the people skeptical of polls have a point or not (but I have a feeling if they're wrong, they'll claim that the polls discouraged voters from coming out and their original claim was right   )

I think the problem I see with fivethirtyeight is (like every poll) it assumes what would happen if the election happened NOW. If the President did something stupid tomorrow or people start caring about "Bengazi-gate" or something, you might see fivethirtyeight look a lot more red. Guess that's not really a criticism, just the reality that no one can predict the future.

Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election. It's close, will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday



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User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1834 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3833 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 9):
No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.

Ah, you're right, my mistake. I was mislead by how close the numbers were.

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

I'm curious though, how does it "correct" polls? I know you said that it uses math, but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
People don't like watching blowouts

But who doesn't love an underdog story?  
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election.

Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip. But I'm just being nitpicky   You're right that it will certainly be an interesting day though. I can assure you I won't be paying attention in class whatsoever while I'm glued to my laptop.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11383 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3815 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Ah, you're right, my mistake.

Hey, no worries. If that's the worst mistake any of us make today, we all had a good day.  
Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

Exactly. It puts each poll in its model. Basically, the model compares that poll's historical accuracy, and gives it a grade. For instance, it can compare Rasmussen against all the other polls that come out at the same time, and determined that it has a fairly predictable right lean. The model therefore balances out Rasmussen by plugging in a negative number to subtract out the historical right lean. Adding that to all the other polls (adjusting them as well to their historical biases) leads to a lower margine of error.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

It's totally passive. Nate Silver does not apply his views to it, but rather, plugs all the polls into the model, which uses a formula to determine how far off center it is.

The breakthrough in Silver's analysis is that it is done without human intervention.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
But who doesn't love an underdog story?

The people rooting for the favorite.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7919 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3810 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip.

Well yeah I realize there is a lot that goes into it, but at the end of the day (and if fivethirtyeight is correct) if he has a 75% chance of winning, that is just as good as any 75% odds



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15749 posts, RR: 27
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 3805 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight

This is basically the only poll worth paying attention to.



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User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13612 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3722 times:
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Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No, in fact it's the opposite. While carrying Ohio would be a huge lift for Romney, there are other potential swing state combinations that would offset it (such as CO, IA, WI), whereas failing to carry Ohio would be more tenuous for the Obama team since they'd have to carry literally every other swing state to overcome the loss of Ohio.

These assume a PA win for Obama, but even that's not a given at this point.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineslider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6818 posts, RR: 34
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3711 times:

I've tuned out polls. Sick and tired of them, especailly this close to the election. Most are grossly incorrect anyhow.

At this point, it's clear that Obama's losing his firewall in many key states and if Romney doesn't have a lead, he's closed and the conventional wisdom that that favors the challenger.

I don't know how it'll all shake out.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7919 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3695 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):

Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney. He's gotta break through in OH (which I don't think he has despite the single poll saying he's ahead) while defending VA, NC, and FL.



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User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13612 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 3679 times:
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Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 17):
Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney.

Obama for America has pulled out of NC entirely and has stopped ad buys in FL. It's generally accepted that those are in the Romney column at this point. In addition, VA is tied at the moment but reports - including one out today from Pew Research - show a statistically significant turnout edge for Romney over Obama, increasing the likelihood that VA will go to Romney.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13120 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3647 times:

I will be interesting to see how 'Sandy' on the east coast will affect the last days of pre-election polling and the final vote in Ohio. There could be less accuracy in polls as many will not be home, able or willing to respond to polls. Many 1000's of voters in some areas of Ohio, but more importantly in what was a toss-up state of Pennsylvania, voters in all areas of the state could be affected by difficulty in getting to voting places, some voting locations moved or consolidated, extended power outages, as well as some just not interested in an election when they have no power, lost their car or have lost their house of if badly damaged in the storm.

The last week of the campaign will be affected as for at least through Thursday it is suspended by the President and Romney, especially as Ohio. and if the damage is severe enough over enough area, The President may not be able to campaign at all, although a visit to a damaged area - like Atlantic City/Jersey shore area or southeastern PA on Saturday or Sunday with national news coverage and making sure emergency monies, FEMA and the National Guard and other agencies quickly would look Presidential. That is something Romney can't do.


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4602 posts, RR: 23
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3619 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio.

Ummm.

Rasmussen Reports 5/29 - 5/29 500 LV 4.5 44 46 Romney +2
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...chive/ohio/ohio_romney_46_obama_44

Try again?

If you really want to focus on polls, then look at the trends and averages. This past week both candidates have jumped up a good pit. What does this mean? Undecideds are making a choice. I also read somewhere that nearly 30-40% of Ohio voters are doing early voting and a good number of those voted BEFORE the first debate. That is a time when Obama was running a 4-6 pt average lead in Ohio. The trend so far ha been positive for both, but Obama has never trailed. It is likely going to be a VERY close election, but as soon as Ohio gets called we'll have a very good idea who is the winner.


User currently offlineseb146 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 11678 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3584 times:

Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?


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User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19794 posts, RR: 59
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3555 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Yup. Romney has Ohio in a bag, so Republicans need not worry. They can stay home on election day!

  


User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7187 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3520 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!  

The only thing I am taking the polls for saying is that it is close. Very close and we might not know who is the president for a few days after the election. The only poll that counts is the election. It is going to be interesting.



"It was just four of us on the flight deck, trying to do our job" (Captain Al Haynes)
User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5654 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 3491 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 23):

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!

With as close of a race as it is, only a few will need to be tampered with.  
Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

But seriously, that conspiracy has been debunked. Tagg's company has invested into a small piece of HIG (which controls the Hart InterCivic fund), but has no interest (financial or otherwise) in the fund that controls HIC.



"PHX is Phoenix, PDX is the other city" -777Way
25 DocLightning : Well, now it's a definite possibility, isn't it? And how could it be tracked down? It only needs a margin of error of a few percent.
26 Post contains links and images NAV20 : D L X, can you provide some more information on the question of 'lean'? In particular - given that the questions asked in polls are usually pretty st
27 D L X : I don't know that kind of details, but it could be in *who* gets called. In any event, you can take a poll and measure how well it predicted an outco
28 Post contains links NAV20 : Well, D L X, here's Rasmussen's current 'Electoral College Scoreboard' - scroll down for their Map. Please point out any areas where it differs materi
29 Stabilator : I'm excited for this election! Despite what I, and many others thought, it will be a close one. Hell, even in my home state of Minnesota, Romney is wi
30 seb146 : So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines? You can't have it b
31 WestJet747 : Thanks for the info. Very insightful! Numbers don't lie, but there are certainly some colourful ways of interpreting and presenting them. (I'm not sa
32 Maverick623 : No, try it again. He invested in a company that has a fund that runs a company that supplies ballot-counting machines. He does not have any say or ev
33 Post contains links Superfly : Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46% http://newsninja2012.com/view-these-...ong-early-voters-nationwide-52-46
34 clemsonaj : Gallup has been consistently right of Rasmussen this entire election cycle. Either they are doing something strange this time around or everyone else
35 NAV20 : As I understand it, clemsonaj, there's a difference of technique. All pollsters ask people whether they are 'likely voters' or just 'registered voter
36 flipdewaf : thugs? are they kenyan or indonesian? Fred
37 Post contains links Pu : To Republicans and Fox News disciples I am sure this is true, as they especially target old people who have landline phones. Like all polls they miss
38 NAV20 : What would you suggest they (or anyone else) do instead, Pu?
39 clemsonaj : Many of the polling outlets are using random number generators to provide numbers, as I understand the methodology. This produces numbers that are as
40 Pu : I reserve the right to criticise without offering a better solutuion! Rasmussen also weighs party membership, the other major polls do not. A big rea
41 seb146 : If he had put hit money in and kept it in for several years, I would be less suspicious. Why this company this year? Why not wait? As with the whole
42 Starbuk7 : Funny how all the people above now complaining the the polls will be rigged by Romney are the same ones that are against voter ID cards saying there i
43 AKiss20 : That's not hypocritical considering that they are two very different types of corruption. Voter ID laws are intended to fight a type of corruption fo
44 Post contains links D L X : Well, for one, this is self-evident. You can review the Rasmussen report versus fivethirtyeight for yourself. One point I see is that fivethirtyeight
45 Superfly : We shall see next week. Cute. The ones in Chicago are American. Surprised with all the free money and free Obamaphones given out in Ohio why any poll
46 WestJet747 : Are you really asking why investors (whose primary function in life is to make money) would wait to invest until after election, when the company the
47 Starbuk7 : Even if the ID's were free to obtain, who is spewing "partisan BS" now. Voting corruption is voting corruption now matter how you look at it and it n
48 Post contains links and images Superfly : You lost the plot right there. This isn't my "logic" at all. I'm just telling you the facts. http://www.policymic.com/articles/17...ing-in-ohio-overs
49 Post contains links casinterest : According to the poll they had 54% women respondants. Census has it as 51% of ohio. +3 http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html How would y
50 Post contains links EA CO AS : Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama: http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf
51 mt99 : What part of it exactly?
52 D L X : You've just linked to a 14 page report with scant commentary. What exactly about this do you think is bad news for Obama?
53 casinterest : How so, ?? When they asked the critical question, 50% were going to vote for Obama and Biden in the Battleground states....
54 Pu : I don't think this is oversampling Democrats if Democrats are in fact in the Ohio population +8 over Republicans, eg if Democrats are out-registered
55 Pu : The most interesting thing in this document to me is that about 80% of Republicans are married and only a bit more than half of Democrats are. 19. Do
56 WestJet747 : So I took a few minutes to review Gravis Marketing's data as provided via the link in your source. It appears that this Jim Spencer character who wro
57 Post contains images DocLightning : Those who yell the loudest are usually the most guilty. Oh, so now all the Democrats can stay home because we're safe?
58 EA CO AS : Many parts: - voter enthusiasm is clearly favoring Romney, not Obama - independents are clearly leaning Romney - responses to key points for this ele
59 Post contains images Rara : Ah nice, we're already getting the post-election narrative fixed up. Well, better be prepared I guess.
60 einsteinboricua : Huffington Post still has Ohio as a tossup (as well as Iowa) but give Obama an edge in both. The only state that's a tossup and is leaning for Romney
61 Post contains links Mir : Why not tell the GOP that? Because they've already started. The GOP in Wisconsin has been incorrectly training their poll observers on the procedure
62 Post contains links ouboy79 : http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html Latest polls for Ohio are still leaning Obama at this point... Poll Date Sam
63 Superfly : But they're not. Nope. They're not. The pollsters are anticipating a repeat of 2008. I've never seen one of 8%. That is way too high, especially for
64 Post contains links Pu : Democrats out register Republicans by 8% nationwide. What source is there that says this is not the case in Ohio? No, Not in the major polls and not
65 Superfly : Where are you getting that information from? Again, Democratic turnout in 2008 was 8% higher in than Republicans in that election cycle. No one, incl
66 Post contains images EA CO AS : So you believe if it's that way nationwide, it must naturally also be that way in every single state? None are heavier R or heavier D, every state is
67 windy95 : Barry showed his ID last week when he voted. Why do you still have a problem with it?
68 flipdewaf : Which one did he show? Fred
69 AKiss20 : If Pu is correct that Ohio does not in fact release party affiliation registrations, then the best estimate one can make is the national average (or
70 Starbuk7 : I/we are not trying to hide anything, I will show my ID to vote no matter if they want to see it or not. That is the way it SHOULD BE!! Are you that
71 Post contains images mt99 : I do. It shows that asking for ID does not stop foreign nationals from voting..
72 Post contains images LifelinerOne : His Mombasa drivers license of course, along with a list of his grades from the Nairobi University. Cheers!
73 WestJet747 : Hopefully you never see a margin-of-error of 8%, because it would signal that the results are not reliable. But my original point being: I don't beli
74 Post contains links pu : The Pew center tracks party affiliation and says its now about 35% Democrats, 28% Republican, the remaining independent. In 2008 the Dem advantage wa
75 Superfly : Based on the 2008 election. Rasmussen isn't the only poll that isn't oversampling Democrats. Stop worrying about this because the only poll that matt
76 D L X : The only people that say a runaway election is too close to call are the people who are behind in the polls. Republicans cannot admit that they have
77 Superfly : This isn't a "runaway election". Even Obama isn't saying that.
78 D L X : Doesn't matter. The Right can't even admit that Obama has a clear lead. Instead, they simply say "the polling is inaccurate." Talk about arrogance. I
79 Superfly : Why are you so caught up on what "the right" or the Republicans are saying? Even Obama isn't claiming to have a clear lead. No one has a clear lead.
80 D L X : When in your lifetime have you ever heard a candidate claim to have the lead in the polls? They never would, for fear of diminishing their own turnou
81 Post contains images Superfly : So now it has to come from the candidates mouth? Everyone knew Clinton and Reagan would be re-elected at this point of the election cycle. It sounds
82 D L X : When YOU say it does, or it doesn't count, I suppose so. (You're arguing against your own point now.) No. I'm arguing that people (almost always Repu
83 Post contains links NAV20 : D L X, if you give the subject a moment's thought - given that there are several million people in the North-East still with no power, and any number
84 Post contains images D L X : What does that have to do with polls in Ohio? (Ohio isn't in the northeast.) (I'm not sure you know this, being an Aussie, so if you do, I apologize.
85 Superfly : When did i say that? Anyone that thinks his is a "runaway" elecion is not paying attention to the realities.
86 D L X : You are the ONLY one that implied that what Obama says (or does not say) on this topic is relevant: Anyone who thinks it is a toss-up is not paying a
87 BMI727 : To be fair, Silver does predict the popular vote to be quite close. It's the electoral vote where Obama will win comfortably. Interestingly, it's als
88 Post contains links NAV20 : Agreed, the storm had lost a lot of puff by the time it reached them. But they sure were 'affected.' http://photos.cleveland.com/clevelan...ortheast_
89 Aesma : Here the challenger in the polls was the incumbent, Sarkozy, and as the election drew closer he got some momentum and got closer to Hollande, then bet
90 Post contains images Superfly : Ok we're going in circles now. YOU were the only one claiming that this is a "runaway" election and that Obama has some big lead. I just pointed out
91 Post contains images flyguy89 : Perhaps if he were addressing you in your native tongue, savez-vous qu'il peut parler francais couramment? Completely off-topic, but how interesting
92 D L X : thats all about Indiana. Obama won it in 08. That's virtually guaranteed to revert to its redness in 12. That's all it takes for the stat "Obama lose
93 BMI727 : Obama won 53% or so of the popular vote in 2008. Now he's projected to get 50.5%, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.
94 Post contains images Superfly : You are the only person denying that his is a close election. That's fine. You're entitled to your own opinion. If Obama was a good President, he wou
95 cws818 : Nor is it a ringing endorsement of Mitt Romney's candidacy. If, for instance, Obama were to win Arizona and Montana, for example, would you then cons
96 BMI727 : That's what I'm getting at: it's going to be more of a Romney loss than an Obama win. It's like one of those games where a team plays a fairly poor g
97 Superfly : He's not, so what's your point? If Obama was a good President, he would be looking to pick up states he lost in 2008.
98 NAV20 : I think you've pretty well 'nailed it' there, BMI727. I've always been 'left of centre' in political terms - and of course the US elections don't dir
99 Rara : Exactly. With a proper candidate, the Republicans could have easily won this election. The current state of the U.S. economy isn't Obama's fault, but
100 Post contains links racko : The people who have a vested financial interest in getting their predictions right seem to be quite certain which way this thing is going to go: http:
101 bjorn14 : I am not saying this is going to happen but it could. That the storm suppresses voter turnout in the NYC area and the more conservative vote in Upstat
102 D L X : I'm really not the only one denying it is a close election. I've tried to point you to a *very* respected source that strongly disagrees, but you're
103 Post contains images Superfly : Not going to happen. Obama is a good 25-30 points ahead in New York. I can play this game all day & night of who's poll is better than the others
104 DeltaMD90 : And I hope that doesn't happen. I'd rather have my favorite candidate lose fair and square than steal the election DLX - I think you may be misunders
105 bjorn14 : As it was probably the only thing Reagan and Mondale agreed upon, "Polls don't vote"
106 Mir : Then let the observers in, and let them see whether the correct procedure is being followed. Irrelevant. The fact is that most states do not require
107 flyguy89 : What motivation would Obama have to move toward the center if he no longer had to face an election?
108 Post contains links D L X : Supe, we go way back, so respectfully, I say do yourself the favor of looking at fivethirtyeight's methodology before you say things like this. It's
109 DeltaMD90 : True, that is still why I think the President has it in the box. Maybe a better phrase would be that he doesn't have much wiggle room and a screw up
110 Post contains images Superfly : Yes we do go way back but I'm just not as argumentative as I used to be. Well aware of Nate Silver's blog. There is also Unskewed polls and Real Clea
111 BMI727 : You can't give Obama a pass for any of this. The economy wasn't just foisted upon him. In 2008 he stood up and told us to elect him and he'll fix it.
112 DeltaMD90 : You know, that is a really good point... Of course, one must balance whether Romney or the President will do a better job, but yeah, I guess getting
113 Aesma : Sure. You didn't answer my question, though. Since Romney is your candidate, do you feel he think he's going to win ? Even if he had a huge lead, tha
114 Mir : If he wants to have a chance at keeping the White House occupied by a Democrat in 2016, he'll do it. If he doesn't care about that, then he might not
115 BMI727 : Actually deregulation and more hands off policies worked quite well during the 1980s, 1990s, and mid 2000s. And it doesn't take a Nobel Prize winner
116 Post contains links D L X : Well, if THIS happens, Obama's chances of winning Virginia could be affected. (How, it remains to be seen, since the storm would hinder the vote in O
117 BMI727 : Not during a recession. We're going to be stuck with tax rates that aren't low for a while because of excessive spending, but raising taxes during a
118 Post contains links AeroWesty : I haven't been following the ups and downs in this election cycle too closely, but have to ask you a question here. In today's blog post, 538 says: "
119 D L X : These policies didn't suddenly end in 2008. They caused 2008. Remember: deregulation and hands off policies meant sub-prime lending and repackaging (
120 flyguy89 : And deregulation and hands-off policies cause that how? Especially considering that it was the government's "hands-on" policies that created that art
121 BMI727 : Of course the government was spending the whole time waving pom-poms for home ownership. You can't let the government try and legislate bad decisions
122 D L X : Hands-off means let the private sector do what it wants. No referees, no one making sure they don't screw people, no one making sure they clean up th
123 BMI727 : There has to be some officiating, but no more than that. Liberals seem to often lose the distinction between a scam and a bad investment.
124 D L X : And conservatives voice way too often the idea that any government regulation should be avoided. That's simply not the case. And yet, Romney has made
125 DeltaMD90 : There are several states that the President is projected to win (making it a win by a large margin) but these few states only have the President up b
126 flyguy89 : ...and ironically enough there were attempts to curtail and investigate what was going on before 2008, and you'd never guess who it was that blocked
127 D L X : Kind of like a 3-0 baseball game in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs, but the bases are loaded?
128 Rara : Sure. If you compared his promises in 2008 with what he actually achieved, he wouldn't deserve a second term. But you can't vote someone out of offic
129 Post contains images AeroWesty : So in other words, brace ourselves for the onslaught of Electoral College threads come November 7th. (Perhaps we can just repost the old ones?)
130 DeltaMD90 : I hope there will only be one. I'm bracing myself for the "Romney won because of racists" or "Obama won because the media didn't cover Bengazigate" t
131 Aesma : Raising taxes on a struggling middle class is of course a bad idea. That's Romney's idea (you know, closing the loopholes). Raising taxes on billiona
132 BMI727 : It would be the same BS that allowed the banks to screw themselves over. Make it clear to them that if they mess up again, they're on their own. Rais
133 Post contains links caliatenza : for god sakes, im sick of Rasmussen. Everyone knows that damn poll is skewed toward the GOP. Oh, and this is what i am really worried about: http://th
134 DocLightning : Do you happen to have money in a bank? Banks going bankrupt was part of what went wrong in 1929.
135 BMI727 : Insured by the FDIC no less.
136 Post contains images NAV20 : What is your current beef about them, caliatenza? I ask because Rasmussen has been showing the same estimated figures (Romney 49%, Obama 47%) ever si
137 Post contains images Superfly : More like voter fraud. I attended a Democratic Party event here in Bangkok 2 weeks ago. Several people were encouraging people to register at their a
138 cws818 : Yes, please do! Why?
139 cws818 : Which groups?
140 Post contains images Superfly : Happy hour drink prices. I am still a Democrat after all. Obviously no organized groups are going to take that responsibility. Individual supporters
141 EA CO AS : I've seen many threats of riots on Twitter if President Obama loses. Don't be surprised if that's trending on Election Night.
142 flipdewaf : Less regulation for industry, lots and lots of regulation for the public, I'm glad no one here wants to regulate my wifes vagina and no one here trie
143 Post contains links NAV20 : Sorry, Superfly, should have made it clear that I wasn't just thinking about New York. Sandy affected everywhere from Florida to Canada, and New York
144 casinterest : New York is always polled as it's votes count for the National polling that we all follow so heavily. Not that it matters wth the Electoral college,
145 windy95 : Can you show the weighting? A link to back up youur statement?
146 Post contains links D L X : From http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/: Sometimes, polls from a particular polling firm tend consistently to be more favorable to
147 casinterest : This bodes well for Obama. Rasmussen today has the national race tied. It is amazing how Romney went from 50% 46% last week to a 48% tie today. If Ra
148 Post contains links AeroWesty : Take a look at this post then draw your own conclusions if these loudmouths could even organize a trip to the local Rexall for a bottle of mouthwash.
149 Post contains links D L X : More water to douse the "toss-up" fire: http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/ Tell me: do you think they're worth
150 ouboy79 : Just to point out something, today's new Rasmussen poll for Ohio now has it as a tie. Obama is leading in every poll, but Ras, at this point...for Ohi
151 Post contains links mt99 : Well this is intersting: "The truth is, the next election has already been decided. Obama is going to win. It's nearly impossible to beat an incumbent
152 Post contains images caliatenza : If Ras is tied..it means Obama is leading . They gotta come back to earth sometime.
153 DocLightning : You do realize that's socialism and federal-centric, right? At least by the current "conservative" definition. Bingo, but let's consider the opposite
154 Post contains images NAV20 : I don't see what is 'amazing' about it, casinterest? In PR terms, Obama was just about certain to get some sort of 'lift' from being free to 'act all
155 BMI727 : It's also fair and reasonable for the government to do. I've never said to throw the doors open completely. But there's a world of difference between
156 D L X : No there isn't. Both save private enterprises that are necessary for public benefit.
157 BMI727 : Yes there is. My savings aren't going to be wiped out if GM goes under. And, by the way, FDIC only protects a relatively limited selection of investm
158 Dreadnought : No, FDIC is intended to guarantee the money of depositors, in case the bank went belly up. It was intended to help prevent a run on banks, where peop
159 D L X : Of course not, don't be silly. The GM rescue and the FDIC protect different industries. But my comment was spot-on in regards to the fact that they a
160 AeroWesty : What you guys slamming the auto bailouts are forgetting is an oft-forgotten U.S. government-owned company named the Resolution Trust Corporation. I do
161 BMI727 : Not really. Dreadnought is right in that the FDIC is there to protect customers of the bank and keep them from either being wiped out by a bank failu
162 AeroWesty : The GFC was only 4 years ago. Did you really already forget the details that led to credit drying up combined with the lack of consumer confidence in
163 BMI727 : There are a lot of other car companies that didn't need to get bailed out that are living in the same global economy. The problem wasn't that the mar
164 AeroWesty : Perhaps you should do a bit more reading in your textbooks about the global financial meltdown, if they've documented history that far yet.
165 D L X : You're still confining your thinking to the result you want. FDIC protecting customers ALSO protects the bank. If there's a guarantee that the money
166 BMI727 : So why do you think it was that other companies weren't looking for US taxpayer bailouts? It's the bad markets that separate men from boys, unless th
167 AeroWesty : Name another consumer item that's as credit intensive as an automobile. Oh wait, a home! Didn't you notice all of the mortgage bailouts that are stil
168 D L X : Believe it or not, I know what the FDIC is. You have just stated something that is of no consequence to your argument that it is not "socialist" unde
169 BMI727 : Other car companies. Ford survived, and I'm not sure if any of the foreign companies were getting bailed out by their governments, but they weren't b
170 D L X : Well, do you think you can just build a factory and train all the workers and set up a supply chain for all the parts AFTER you need them? (I think t
171 Post contains links AeroWesty : Ford Would Have Shut Without Auto Bailouts, Rattner Says "Ford Motor Co. (F), the only large U.S. automaker that didn’t receive a U.S. government ba
172 BMI727 : No you can't. The military needs to procure what it thinks it will need in the future. If a large scale war were to break out a lot of factories woul
173 AeroWesty : Now you're just being silly. This was a once or twice a century global meltdown, where the country would have been far off worse than if action hadn'
174 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Further on the Rasmussen thing, they contnue to show a tie - now at 49% each. Interesting that the most respected 'poll of polls' - the RealClearPolit
175 BMI727 : This was Chrysler's second bailout in 30 years.
176 Post contains links ouboy79 : Using Wikipedia for this is probably the worst thing you an do. Those pages are updated manually and not automatic. Why not just go to the actual RCP
177 D L X : And here's the thing about averaging polls: the margin of error is reduced to near zero. (The more people that are sampled, the more likely it is tha
178 bjorn14 : I think Obama is in trouble, when he has go to uber-liberal cities like Boulder, CO and Madison, WI (both towns I have lived in and loved) less than a
179 D L X : Your thinking is wrong. At this point in a campaign, a candidate goes places to rally people and ensure that they go vote, not change people's minds.
180 EA CO AS : That's merely your opinion. We'll know in the next 36 hours, give or take.
181 AeroWesty : At this point, is there anyone out there willing to go on the record as saying that they believe Romney will take office as the 45th president on Jan
182 DeltaMD90 : He may not be convincing people to switch sides, he may be trying to get people that support him but are NOT going to vote to vote. In many stronghol
183 D L X : From what I understand, the model is blind to turnout of any particular subgroup because that stuff is "priced in" to the way it adjusts the individu
184 DeltaMD90 : Yes but with much of the disdain for the President (some warranted, some very unwarranted) I can see there being a historical (or at least an above a
185 NAV20 : A bit of a misunderstanding, ouboy79 - the figures I linked to are from nation-wide polls, not just Ohio. Further, the Wiki list clearly shows how bi
186 D L X : fivethirtyeight.com now showing Obama's chances of winning at 91.4%. But that's just "my opinion."
187 EA CO AS : Is there anyone willing to state unequivocally that President Obama has this election in the bag and will be re-elected?
188 D L X : Yes. Nate Silver at fivethirtyeight has been betting people like Joe Scarborough $1000 that Obama is going to win.
189 Post contains images AeroWesty : Yeah, I'll go on the record saying I believe Obama has this election in the bag at this point. Well, as long as the Libertarians don't sweep West Vir
190 DeltaMD90 : How does 538 have the President winning FL? I know that they average polls and everything but most the polls including RCP's average has Romney up...
191 D L X : That literally just happened in the last 10 minutes. Perhaps there is a new poll? A lot of the polls done on election eve have much larger sample siz
192 EA CO AS : So how about you, then? Are you willing to go on-record as stating that Obama has this one in the bag?
193 Post contains images D L X : No, but I will say I will be VERY surprised if Obama does not give a victory speech tomorrow evening. I'd also say, if the weatherman said "91% chanc
194 AeroWesty : Interestingly, in 4 1/2 hours, no one's gone on the record to state they believe Romney has this election in the bag. I just read 538's article about
195 AKiss20 : I was interested to see that Silver's analysis slightly switched FL. For the past 1-1.5 weeks it had FL as 60-65% chance for Romney, but right now it
196 BMI727 : I'll go on record and say Obama has this one in the bag. His first term has been pretty average and was ripe for the picking but the Republicans coul
197 DocLightning : Only a fool tries to predict the future with 100% certainty. Better question is: if he wins, will you accept it?
198 AeroWesty : So cynical for being so young. If Romney was so wildly popular, his election wouldn't have to hinge on just one state, which seems to be your implica
199 flyerboy1990 : I am going to go ahead and say that I honestly will be shocked if Mitt Romney is elected president. Soon after, I will pray. Personally, it will be a
200 BMI727 : Romney isn't that popular. That's the issue: he failed more than Obama succeeded. People aren't especially happy with Obama, but the Republicans fail
201 flyerboy1990 : I think that's the problem with the Republican party. They cannot bring a realistic presidential candidate to the table. Romney is the best they can
202 Post contains links D L X : A cool little tool from the New York Times: http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html
203 Post contains images AeroWesty : Okay, so Obama didn't buy the election then? I'm really having a hard time following your line of thinking. It's all over the place!
204 BMI727 : Silver pretty clearly thinks he has. If the Republicans had found someone better than Romney, it may not have mattered.
205 AeroWesty : Thank you for agreeing with the point I've been making in the Electoral College thread, that it's the primary process which needs improvement.
206 Post contains links and images NAV20 : Looks like a closer race than last time so far :- "In a sign that the 2012 presidential election is likely to be a close race, President Barack Obama
207 cws818 : There's the rub. Romney is, by all accounts, a kind and decent man. However his campaigns have made it nearly impossible to determine what, specifica
208 AeroWesty : While I was flipping through channels, I just caught Gingrich on Fox News predicting a "landslide" for Romney on Tuesday.
209 BMI727 : He stands for winning elections just like every other politician. This time he fell short.
210 EA CO AS : I agree that there's no way to be certain about the future. Having said that, based on the polls and my gut instinct, my own Electoral College predic
211 cws818 : If that is all he stands for, that is why he would have fallen short. Something more, something concrete, something reliable - that is what is requir
212 bjorn14 : Polls don't matter....the Washington Redskins (to the Carolina Panthers, 21-13) lost their final home game before the election. This predictor has onl
213 flipdewaf : Sorry, incorrect posting.[Edited 2012-11-06 05:35:57]
214 Rara : For those interested in polling, today will be huge - possibly even more important than the debates. If Obama wins the election, how will that influen
215 Post contains images AKiss20 :
216 DocLightning : Yes, I will.
217 D L X : You cannot take such a position of no qualifiers. The 2000 election is the situation which should make that clear. The 2000 decision by the Supreme C
218 AeroWesty : Liz Cheney just predicted a "decisive" victory for Romney. Okie dokie, enough Fox News for me today. I need something more balanced.
219 cws818 : This may just prove that wisdom (or the lack thereof) is inherited. So much for Rasmussen.....
220 Post contains images scbriml : Breaking news on Fox - Romney elected president!
221 DeltaMD90 : Well, DLX, I guess I shouldn't have doubted you... fivethirtyeight was spot on. Even with FL at about 50-50% (it's so close there that I don't even th
222 mbmbos : LOL! Aren't you a caution!
223 Post contains images AeroWesty : I think what surprised me the most in this election was how convinced many prominent Republicans, including Romney, apparently, really believed that
224 D L X : I am a big believer in statistical analysis of polling. Nate Silver has it right. Thing is, he didn't just predict this last night, but rather last w
225 DeltaMD90 : Well I had my doubts (that had nothing to do with the GOP's conspiracy/accidental bias analysis, I just think polls are polls and you should take the
226 pu : In my experience they always do a good job. For the last 30 years at least. Every election cycle some underdog surrogate will pull out a poll from a
227 Revelation : Priceless indeed! I was away last week for the entire week in a place where there was little Internet connectivity, and while the TV had 20+ channels
228 Maverick623 : This morning I saw no less than 3 "opinion" pieces prominently featured on the front page of the website that accused the Liberal Media of costing Ro
229 DeltaMD90 : This is the first election I really paid attention to, last one I was 18 and pretty much just voted down the party lines. So I'll take note for next
230 D L X : I can't agree with this, but it's a nit. (Or a pet peeve.) These polls are not accurate. But they are _precise_. In fact, it is better that they are
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