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Romney Opens Lead In Ohio  
User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1906 posts, RR: 9
Posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3960 times:

For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ.../ohio/election_2012_ohio_president

230 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3953 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state

Being the first doesn't do much good in polling, especially if you are the "only"

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

The real clear politics still shows that the +2 is within the 4 point margin of error for a 1 day poll by Rasmussen.
It remains to be seen if it is an outlier or credible, The early voting is trending for Obama currently, so I don't know if the "planning to vote for" question on the automated system is causing an issue for the numbers.

We'll know for sure on Nov 6.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6575 posts, RR: 6
Reply 2, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3953 times:
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Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)  http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com...ma-50-romney-46-in-ohio/?hpt=hp_t2

"PPP's newest Ohio poll finds Barack Obama leading Mitt Romney 51-47, up from a 49-48 margin a week ago."

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/m.../10/obama-leads-51-47-in-ohio.html

Anywho,

Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

[Edited 2012-10-29 08:51:08]


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User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 3, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3932 times:

fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.


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User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29792 posts, RR: 58
Reply 4, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3921 times:

I hope it is true.... For the the future of the nation


OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 5, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3908 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No but it's the easiest way to 270. He can win NV, IA, and NH I believe but I think he's closer to winning OH than NV. There are lots of scenarios, but I still stand by whoever wins OH will win the presidency, and despite this poll, I think it'll be the President, narrowly.

Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really. Just within the margins of error of most of the swing state polls, it's likely that it could be a close race or one of the candidates can win by quite a bit. If you assume that the polls are not dead on and might favor one candidate or another, you may see even a landslide

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight? I've paid attention more during this election and am very young, so I could be wrong, but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen. I've heard fivethrityeight being so great, intrade odds never being wrong (for the past two elections, cough cough,) some University of Colorado model predicting Romney will win (and it supposedly was fed past data and was right for every election since 1980) so it seems like there are going to be a lot of wrong models this go around.

There is one model that I've seen that works 100% of the time, and the results of this model are going to be out in only 8 days...  



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8824 posts, RR: 24
Reply 6, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3856 times:

Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Polls? They are not to be believed (unless they favor Romney of course)

I don't think that anyone has ever said they were worthless. Just historically they tend to be weighted 2-3 points in favor of the democratic candidate. Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

But of course, the overall popular vote is meaningless. Theoretically you could have nearly 75% of the population vote for Candidate A and Candidate B could still win the electoral college.



Veni Vidi Castratavi Illegitimos
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 7, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3848 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

What is special about fivethrityeight?

The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)



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User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 8, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3847 times:

In the Rasmussen article it says that only 1% of Ohio voters are 'undecided'. Is that normal at this point? This is only the second US election that I have ever followed, so I don't have much experience to go on, but I had always assumed this number would be much higher, especially given how divisive the state is.

Speaking from the experience that I do have, in Canada we often have a much higher rate of undecided voters, but I guess that is because we have 5 major parties as opposed to two, so the voters have a little more research to do.

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio

These numbers are statistically irrelevant (in the sense that they don't necessarily pose a definitive conclusion). Rasmussen reports a +/- 4% margin of error at a 95% confidence level, which in this context means a 50-48 may not be a lead at all. That said, neither side should get excited, it's still a toss-up as you mentioned later on in your post.

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
Honestly, this race is so close that looking at polls is meaningless really.

   Agreed, but it does depend on the state.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 5):
but this election seems to have the most "never been proven wrong" models I've ever seen

They say that about all the major sports championships every year too...it's just a marketing tool to get people to pay more attention to their polls.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 9, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3840 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 8):
Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight still shows Obama having a 74.9% chance of winning Ohio.

That figure is for the entire country, not Ohio.

No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 10, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3827 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
All of the media outlets have an interest in making people think that the race is extremely close. People don't like watching blowouts, so they make it look as close as possible. Fivethirtyeight does not. (Not saying they are alone there, just saying that they don't.)

Makes sense. This implies that there isn't a bias in polling... it will be interesting to see whether the people skeptical of polls have a point or not (but I have a feeling if they're wrong, they'll claim that the polls discouraged voters from coming out and their original claim was right   )

I think the problem I see with fivethirtyeight is (like every poll) it assumes what would happen if the election happened NOW. If the President did something stupid tomorrow or people start caring about "Bengazi-gate" or something, you might see fivethirtyeight look a lot more red. Guess that's not really a criticism, just the reality that no one can predict the future.

Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election. It's close, will be interesting to see what happens Tuesday



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User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 11, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3810 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 9):
No, that figure is for Ohio. (Though it should not surprise that the number for Ohio comes very close to Obama's chances to win the whole thing.) His numbers for the country as a whole are 74.6%.

If you go to the site (fivethirtyeight.com) and scroll down to the map on the right, you can mouseover a particular state, and it will tell you the chances of a candidate winning that state. Ohio currently reads 74.9%.

Ah, you're right, my mistake. I was mislead by how close the numbers were.

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
The deal with fivethirtyeight is that it uses math to "correct" polls, undoing their biases and counteracting the margin of error. (If you add up a lot of polls together, the margin of error decreases.) It's a very refreshing, non-biased look at election predictions.

So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

I'm curious though, how does it "correct" polls? I know you said that it uses math, but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

Quoting D L X (Reply 7):
People don't like watching blowouts

But who doesn't love an underdog story?  
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 10):
Regardless, when it comes down to it, 75-25% split isn't a definite lead. I can flip a coin two times and get heads twice as easily as Romney can win the election.

Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip. But I'm just being nitpicky   You're right that it will certainly be an interesting day though. I can assure you I won't be paying attention in class whatsoever while I'm glued to my laptop.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 12, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3792 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Ah, you're right, my mistake.

Hey, no worries. If that's the worst mistake any of us make today, we all had a good day.  
Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
So it's more of an aggregator than an actual poll?

Exactly. It puts each poll in its model. Basically, the model compares that poll's historical accuracy, and gives it a grade. For instance, it can compare Rasmussen against all the other polls that come out at the same time, and determined that it has a fairly predictable right lean. The model therefore balances out Rasmussen by plugging in a negative number to subtract out the historical right lean. Adding that to all the other polls (adjusting them as well to their historical biases) leads to a lower margine of error.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
but bias is a qualitative factor, so wouldn't fivethirtyeight have to make its own assumptions (which one could argue is inherently biased in its own way) to quantify the variables used in their equation(s)?

It's totally passive. Nate Silver does not apply his views to it, but rather, plugs all the polls into the model, which uses a formula to determine how far off center it is.

The breakthrough in Silver's analysis is that it is done without human intervention.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
But who doesn't love an underdog story?

The people rooting for the favorite.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 13, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3787 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 11):
Well, mathematically that's not entirely correct because there are more influencing factors with an effect on the vote than on the coin flip.

Well yeah I realize there is a lot that goes into it, but at the end of the day (and if fivethirtyeight is correct) if he has a 75% chance of winning, that is just as good as any 75% odds



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 14, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3782 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 3):
fivethirtyeight

This is basically the only poll worth paying attention to.



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User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3699 times:
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Quoting mt99 (Reply 2):
Is it true that Ohio is a must-win for Romney, but not necessarily so for Obama?

No, in fact it's the opposite. While carrying Ohio would be a huge lift for Romney, there are other potential swing state combinations that would offset it (such as CO, IA, WI), whereas failing to carry Ohio would be more tenuous for the Obama team since they'd have to carry literally every other swing state to overcome the loss of Ohio.

These assume a PA win for Obama, but even that's not a given at this point.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineslider From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6793 posts, RR: 34
Reply 16, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 3688 times:

I've tuned out polls. Sick and tired of them, especailly this close to the election. Most are grossly incorrect anyhow.

At this point, it's clear that Obama's losing his firewall in many key states and if Romney doesn't have a lead, he's closed and the conventional wisdom that that favors the challenger.

I don't know how it'll all shake out.


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 17, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3672 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 15):

Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney. He's gotta break through in OH (which I don't think he has despite the single poll saying he's ahead) while defending VA, NC, and FL.



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User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3656 times:
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Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 17):
Well the big swing states in play, OH, NC, VA, and FL, pretty much all need to be won by Romney to win, whereas the President can take just one of these states and probably win. Romney is slightly leading in NC, VA, and FL now so it's not that much tipped in the President's favor, but I still think it's an uphill battle for Romney.

Obama for America has pulled out of NC entirely and has stopped ad buys in FL. It's generally accepted that those are in the Romney column at this point. In addition, VA is tied at the moment but reports - including one out today from Pew Research - show a statistically significant turnout edge for Romney over Obama, increasing the likelihood that VA will go to Romney.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13073 posts, RR: 12
Reply 19, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3624 times:

I will be interesting to see how 'Sandy' on the east coast will affect the last days of pre-election polling and the final vote in Ohio. There could be less accuracy in polls as many will not be home, able or willing to respond to polls. Many 1000's of voters in some areas of Ohio, but more importantly in what was a toss-up state of Pennsylvania, voters in all areas of the state could be affected by difficulty in getting to voting places, some voting locations moved or consolidated, extended power outages, as well as some just not interested in an election when they have no power, lost their car or have lost their house of if badly damaged in the storm.

The last week of the campaign will be affected as for at least through Thursday it is suspended by the President and Romney, especially as Ohio. and if the damage is severe enough over enough area, The President may not be able to campaign at all, although a visit to a damaged area - like Atlantic City/Jersey shore area or southeastern PA on Saturday or Sunday with national news coverage and making sure emergency monies, FEMA and the National Guard and other agencies quickly would look Presidential. That is something Romney can't do.


User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4581 posts, RR: 23
Reply 20, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3596 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio.

Ummm.

Rasmussen Reports 5/29 - 5/29 500 LV 4.5 44 46 Romney +2
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...chive/ohio/ohio_romney_46_obama_44

Try again?

If you really want to focus on polls, then look at the trends and averages. This past week both candidates have jumped up a good pit. What does this mean? Undecideds are making a choice. I also read somewhere that nearly 30-40% of Ohio voters are doing early voting and a good number of those voted BEFORE the first debate. That is a time when Obama was running a 4-6 pt average lead in Ohio. The trend so far ha been positive for both, but Obama has never trailed. It is likely going to be a VERY close election, but as soon as Ohio gets called we'll have a very good idea who is the winner.


User currently offlineseb146 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 11574 posts, RR: 15
Reply 21, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3561 times:

Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?


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User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19505 posts, RR: 58
Reply 22, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3532 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Thread starter):
For the first time this election season Rasmussen indicates a two point R: 50% O: 48% lead in the state of Ohio. While still a statistical dead heat, polls in Ohio have long indicated a tie between the two or Obama with a 1 point lead in the state, so I believe this is the first piece of polling to indicate a lead for Romney in this critical swing state.

Yup. Romney has Ohio in a bag, so Republicans need not worry. They can stay home on election day!

  


User currently offlineflymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 7140 posts, RR: 9
Reply 23, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 8 hours ago) and read 3497 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!  

The only thing I am taking the polls for saying is that it is close. Very close and we might not know who is the president for a few days after the election. The only poll that counts is the election. It is going to be interesting.



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User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5592 posts, RR: 6
Reply 24, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 3468 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 23):

Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!

With as close of a race as it is, only a few will need to be tampered with.  
Quoting seb146 (Reply 21):
Has anyone thought about looking into who owns part of the voting machine company for Hamilton County, Ohio?

But seriously, that conspiracy has been debunked. Tagg's company has invested into a small piece of HIG (which controls the Hart InterCivic fund), but has no interest (financial or otherwise) in the fund that controls HIC.



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User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19505 posts, RR: 58
Reply 25, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 3478 times:

Quoting flymia (Reply 23):
Exactly. We all know all the voting machines will be rigged!

Well, now it's a definite possibility, isn't it? And how could it be tracked down? It only needs a margin of error of a few percent.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 26, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3463 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 12):
For instance, it can compare Rasmussen against all the other polls that come out at the same time, and determined that it has a fairly predictable right lean. The model therefore balances out Rasmussen by plugging in a negative number to subtract out the historical right lean.

D L X, can you provide some more information on the question of 'lean'? In particular - given that the questions asked in polls are usually pretty straightforward and neutrally-phrased - how can any 'lean' be applied?

As an example, here are the basic questions asked (by an automated voice) in Rasmussen polls:-

"* Please note that we split the survey to rotate the order of the candidates, so while half will hear the Republican first, the other half hears the Democrat mentioned first.

1* If the 2012 presidential election were held today, would you vote for Republican Mitt Romney or Democrat Barack Obama?

2* I’m going to read you a short list of people in the news. For each, please let me know you have a very favorable, somewhat favorable, somewhat unfavorable, or very unfavorable impression.

Mitt Romney
Barack Obama

3* I’m going to read you a short list of issues in the news. For each, please let me know which presidential candidate you trust more to handle that issue.

Economy
Job Creation
National Security
Housing
Energy Policy."


http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ...012_ohio_president_october_28_2012

So how could Rasmussen (or any other pollster) 'rig' the poll results to show different opinions to those actually expressed by the people canvassed?

Seems to me that the only way that could be done would not be by somehow introducing 'lean' in the survey methods; but by actually falsifying (altering) the returns? A practice which, given the United States' admirable tradition of 'freedom of the press,' would surely be headline news within about five minutes?  

Seems to me that any 'lean' is likely to be in the minds of the commentators/journalists- not those of the polling organisations themselves?

[Edited 2012-10-29 20:27:13]


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User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 27, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3477 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
D L X, can you provide some more information on the question of 'lean'?

I don't know that kind of details, but it could be in *who* gets called. In any event, you can take a poll and measure how well it predicted an outcome based on how well it had performed in the past. Rasmussen, for instance, isn't new to 2012. Fivethirtyeight can review its performance over a long period of time to determine how well it predicted results, and if it typically leaned one way or the other, the model can adjust for that.



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User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 28, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3471 times:

Well, D L X, here's Rasmussen's current 'Electoral College Scoreboard' - scroll down for their Map. Please point out any areas where it differs materially from those of RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight?

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/publ.../2012_electoral_college_scoreboard



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User currently offlineStabilator From United States of America, joined Nov 2010, 695 posts, RR: 0
Reply 29, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 3451 times:

I'm excited for this election! Despite what I, and many others thought, it will be a close one. Hell, even in my home state of Minnesota, Romney is with in the margin of error in the Star Trib poll.

Not sure why I geek out on this election stuff, but I find it fascinating!



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User currently offlineseb146 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 11574 posts, RR: 15
Reply 30, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 3440 times:

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 24):
Tagg's company has invested into a small piece of HIG (which controls the Hart InterCivic fund), but has no interest (financial or otherwise) in the fund that controls HIC.

So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines? You can't have it both ways. If he has money in a voting machine company, maybe someone should look into it. If people are still talking about it, there is probably some truth to it.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 25):
Well, now it's a definite possibility, isn't it? And how could it be tracked down? It only needs a margin of error of a few percent.

Didn't someone go on national television and show how easily those machines can be manipulated? Who was that again?

And the right-wing was so worried about voter fraud. Just not the voting machines. I wonder why....



Life in the wall is a drag.
User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 31, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3409 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 12):

Thanks for the info. Very insightful!

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 26):
So how could Rasmussen (or any other pollster) 'rig' the poll results to show different opinions to those actually expressed by the people canvassed?

Seems to me that the only way that could be done would not be by somehow introducing 'lean' in the survey methods; but by actually falsifying (altering) the returns?

Numbers don't lie, but there are certainly some colourful ways of interpreting and presenting them.

(I'm not saying that's what is going on here, just thought it was worth mentioning.)

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines? You can't have it both ways. If he has money in a voting machine company, maybe someone should look into it.

Tagg's company holds equity in the firm which owns a fund that invests in the manufacturer of the voting machines. Technically there is no direct relationship between the elder Romney son, and the company making voting machines, so we can't say with accuracy that he "has money in [it]". From a business perspective there's quite a few degrees of separation in there which is why it has remained above board.

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
If people are still talking about it, there is probably some truth to it.

People are still talking about Obama being born in Kenya...



Flying refined.
User currently offlineMaverick623 From United States of America, joined Nov 2006, 5592 posts, RR: 6
Reply 32, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3399 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):
So, Tagg invested in a company that is supplying voting machines but he didn't invest in a company that supplies voting machines?

No, try it again. He invested in a company that has a fund that runs a company that supplies ballot-counting machines. He does not have any say or even a financial interest in the fund that sells the machines.

What you're saying is basically that because Microsoft has a financial interest in the same company that Apple has an interest in, that Microsoft is going to screw Apple over, which is completely false.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 33, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 3401 times:

Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46%
http://newsninja2012.com/view-these-...ong-early-voters-nationwide-52-46/


Despite these numbers, I still think Obama and his Chicago thugs will make sure he wins a 2nd term.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineclemsonaj From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 269 posts, RR: 0
Reply 34, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 3333 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
Gallup Survey Finds Mitt Romney Leading among Early-Voters Nationwide 52%-46%

Gallup has been consistently right of Rasmussen this entire election cycle. Either they are doing something strange this time around or everyone else is. They have put themselves in a situation of being either completely discredited by this election, or becoming the standard bearer for all future polling attempts.

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 6):
Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

Never mind the fact that in 2012 they are still calling only landlines and mostly during the daytime. It certainly helps the message to poll non-minorities who still have a landline. Over 30% of the electorate lives in cell-only households. They may have had 2004 and 2006 pegged, but in 2008 they had McCain +1 at this point and in 2010 they missed by an average of 5.8 points. The coveted study folks like to cite for 2008 was done the day after the election - prior to the final margin for victory for Obama being known. In reality Rasmussen was the 9th most accurate polster of the 2008 cycle.

You've all heard that there are lies, damned lies and statistics. Polls are all data/statistics that can easily be manipulated to fit the desired message. As a scientist I realize that collection method can influence the results, and I find often that folks design experiments to meet a certain expected result. The same happens with pollsters, especially when they have a political agenda to support. The only poll that matters is the one where the real data is collected on Tuesday.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 35, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 20 hours ago) and read 3314 times:

Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
Gallup has been consistently right of Rasmussen this entire election cycle. Either they are doing something strange this time around or everyone else is.

As I understand it, clemsonaj, there's a difference of technique. All pollsters ask people whether they are 'likely voters' or just 'registered voters.' Most polls feed the preferences of both groups into their findings; Gallup apparently concentrate pretty well 100% on the 'likely' ones. Given that, in their (longest of all) experience, their view is that that usually produces the more accurate result; and that, in any case, the number of 'likely voters' tends to get a lot closer to 100% of respondents as election day approaches.


Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
they are still calling only landlines and mostly during the daytime. It certainly helps the message to poll non-minorities who still have a landline. Over 30% of the electorate lives in cell-only households.

Agree that the rise of mobile phones creates a big problem. In particular, polling only landlines virtually rules out any contact with younger voters. But I'm not sure that the pollsters can do much about it. First of all the cost of polling lots of people using cell-phones would probably be prohibitive; and secondly, how would they even find the numbers to call?

[Edited 2012-10-30 06:08:38]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineflipdewaf From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 1568 posts, RR: 1
Reply 36, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3299 times:
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Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
I still think Obama and his Chicago thugs

thugs? are they kenyan or indonesian?

Fred


User currently offlinePu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 37, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3280 times:

Quoting Dreadnought (Reply 6):

Rasmussen has built a reputation of being one of the most accurate pollsters out there.

To Republicans and Fox News disciples I am sure this is true, as they especially target old people who have landline phones. Like all polls they miss Latino voters almost entirely and here is their methodology for reaching those who "abandoned traditional landline telepones". (itself a value judgment...how can you abandon what you never had?)

To reach those who have abandoned traditional landline telephones, Rasmussen Reports uses an online survey tool to interview randomly selected participants from  a demographically diverse panel
http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/about_us/methodology

Pu


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 38, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 19 hours ago) and read 3270 times:

Quoting Pu (Reply 37):
Like all polls they miss Latino voters almost entirely and here is their methodology for reaching those who "abandoned traditional landline telepones". (itself a value judgment...how can you abandon what you never had?)

What would you suggest they (or anyone else) do instead, Pu?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineclemsonaj From United States of America, joined Aug 2009, 269 posts, RR: 0
Reply 39, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 3240 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
Agree that the rise of mobile phones creates a big problem. In particular, polling only landlines virtually rules out any contact with younger voters. But I'm not sure that the pollsters can do much about it. First of all the cost of polling lots of people using cell-phones would probably be prohibitive; and secondly, how would they even find the numbers to call?

Many of the polling outlets are using random number generators to provide numbers, as I understand the methodology. This produces numbers that are as close to random as a sample can get and includes cell and landlines. If the number is disconnected it's tossed and they move on to the next number. A lot of the pollsters include cell vs. landline data in the poll.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 35):
As I understand it, clemsonaj, there's a difference of technique.

I completely agree. I did a tad more reading on the subject and it seems that gallup polls are approximately 15% cell lines. This gets them into Rasmussen territory on significantly under-representing the younger and minority electorate. They've also come under quite a bit of scrutiny this cycle for the ethnic weights they've been applying to their polls from both sides. If, after the election, their methodology proves to be the most accurate I'm sure just about everyone else will be quick to adopt it. It remains to be seen though if their methodology, or anyone else's for that matter, will accurately represent the ever-changing electorate.


User currently offlinePu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 40, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 3215 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 38):
What would you suggest they (or anyone else) do instead, Pu?

I reserve the right to criticise without offering a better solutuion!

Rasmussen also weighs party membership, the other major polls do not. A big reason why Rasmussen is *always* about 4 points to the right of other polls is because it predicts a lower voter turnout among Democrats so it weighs poll respondants who self-identify as Republicans higher than those that identify as Democrats. There was a lot of controversy about this a month or so back, but it is ONLY RASMUSSEN that weighs party identification, the other major pollsters do not. They may be Right in their methodology, pun intended, we shall see.

Even polls that attempt to gauge the Latino vote only reach higher income Latinos where someone is at home to answer the phone, who fit the someone-always-at-home profile of Republicans anyway. This is important in Colorado and Florida, but not so important in New Hampshire and Ohio.

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 18):
and has stopped ad buys in FL.

I'm certain thats not true. Source?

Pu


User currently offlineseb146 From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 11574 posts, RR: 15
Reply 41, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3185 times:

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 32):
He invested in a company that has a fund that runs a company that supplies ballot-counting machines.
Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 31):
From a business perspective there's quite a few degrees of separation in there which is why it has remained above board.

If he had put hit money in and kept it in for several years, I would be less suspicious. Why this company this year? Why not wait? As with the whole fake outrage over voter fraud that does not exist. Why this election are people outraged over voter fraud that does not exist?



Life in the wall is a drag.
User currently offlineStarbuk7 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 599 posts, RR: 5
Reply 42, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3185 times:

Funny how all the people above now complaining the the polls will be rigged by Romney are the same ones that are against voter ID cards saying there is no corruption at the polling booths, what hypocrisy!!

User currently offlineAKiss20 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 607 posts, RR: 5
Reply 43, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3174 times:

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 42):
Funny how all the people above now complaining the the polls will be rigged by Romney are the same ones that are against voter ID cards saying there is no corruption at the polling booths, what hypocrisy!!

That's not hypocritical considering that they are two very different types of corruption. Voter ID laws are intended to fight a type of corruption for which there is no tangible evidence and in the meanwhile have been shown to make it difficult for low-income or otherwise partially dis-enfranchised voters to vote. The other is a form of corruption in which those who control the voting process have political/financial ties to candidates on the ballot. I am not making a judgement as to whether there is any truth to the idea that Romney is attempting to rig any votes, but I am just pointing out that you can believe both of the above statements without being hypocritical as both can be accurate without being contradicting one another.

It's called logic and critical thinking rather than spouting partisan BS.



Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 44, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 3173 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 27):
Well, D L X, here's Rasmussen's current 'Electoral College Scoreboard' - scroll down for their Map. Please point out any areas where it differs materially from those of RealClearPolitics or FiveThirtyEight?

Well, for one, this is self-evident. You can review the Rasmussen report versus fivethirtyeight for yourself. One point I see is that fivethirtyeight predicts Obama winning Virginia, while Rasmussen suggests Romney is ahead. That's just one data point.

But, you've misunderstood what I have said anyway.

You're trying to show that Rasmussen does not have a right leaning bias by comparing it against another solitary poll, and a poll predictor. What I think you have misunderstood is that the fivethirtyeight model does not take any subjective comparison between Rasmussen and any other poll, but rather, compares the poll's history against the final results to determine how well they performed.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/



Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 45, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3134 times:

Quoting clemsonaj (Reply 34):
They have put themselves in a situation of being either completely discredited by this election, or becoming the standard bearer for all future polling attempts.


We shall see next week.

Quoting flipdewaf (Reply 36):
thugs? are they kenyan or indonesian?


Cute.
The ones in Chicago are American.



Surprised with all the free money and free Obamaphones given out in Ohio why any poll would show Romney anywhere close to Obama. The President should be 10-15 points ahead - if he were a good President.


If I'm not mistaken, the polls are over-sampling Democrats by an 8 point margin - the margin of difference in the 2008 turnout. There is no way in hell that there will be a repeat. Independents are going for Romney this time around.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 46, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 3090 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 41):
Why this company this year? Why not wait?

Are you really asking why investors (whose primary function in life is to make money) would wait to invest until after election, when the company they're investing in is going to make money because of the election?

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
Obama and his Chicago thugs

This isn't the 1930's. There's no thugs in Chicago swaying the results of an upcoming election.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 45):
the polls are over-sampling Democrats by an 8 point margin

There's a slight failure in your logic: To "over-sample" one side or another, the researcher would have to know the outcome before the study is even commenced. To accuse a poll of "over-sampling" (which doesn't really exist, because the greater the sample size the better) would be to say that they weren't calling random households, but rather intentionally dialing numbers they knew with certainty to be Democrat households.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineStarbuk7 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 599 posts, RR: 5
Reply 47, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3081 times:

Quoting AKiss20 (Reply 43):
Voter ID laws are intended to fight a type of corruption for which there is no tangible evidence and in the meanwhile have been shown to make it difficult for low-income or otherwise partially dis-enfranchised voters to vote.


Even if the ID's were free to obtain, who is spewing "partisan BS" now. Voting corruption is voting corruption now matter how you look at it and it needs to be curtailed before it starts on either side of the aisle, nothing "partisan" about it.

Each side should have an equal shot at getting elected so all types of voter fraud, be it ID cards or making sure the machines or the counters are not corrupt so that the elections are fair. Nothing "partisan" about this thinking at all!!!!


User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 48, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3074 times:

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 46):
There's a slight failure in your logic




You lost the plot right there. This isn't my "logic" at all. I'm just telling you the facts.

http://www.policymic.com/articles/17...ing-in-ohio-oversampling-explained



Let's begin with Public Policy Polling (PPP) which showed on October 28 that Obama was leading 51% to 47% over Romney.

A closer look at the data shows that Democrats were oversampled by a whopping 8% (D+8). Women were also oversampled by the same 8% (W+8). Crosstabs within the poll show 88% of Democrats choosing Obama and 55% of women. You can see how this skews the results when you over-sample by such a large amount.


Now we'll take a look at the Gravis marketing results released October 28 that has Obama leading Romney by 50% to 49%. Not bad... a lead is a lead, right? Not so fast.

Gravis Marketing also oversampled Democrats by 8% (D+8).


So many polls have been doing this but I'm not going to waste time showing you every single poll that has been oversampling Democrats.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 46):
There's no thugs in Chicago


  



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 2
Reply 49, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3056 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):
). Women were also oversampled by the same 8% (W+8)

According to the poll they had 54% women respondants. Census has it as 51% of ohio. +3
http://quickfacts.census.gov/qfd/states/39000.html

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):
Democrats were oversampled by a whopping 8% (D+8).

How would you know this?
Ohio does not publish it's regisatration statisctics. 43-35-21 may very well be the mix.


My concern would be that 64% of the respondents were over 46.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 50, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3056 times:
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Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6575 posts, RR: 6
Reply 51, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3043 times:
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Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):
Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/...l.pdf

What part of it exactly?



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 52, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3044 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):

Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/...l.pdf

You've just linked to a 14 page report with scant commentary.

What exactly about this do you think is bad news for Obama?



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User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 2
Reply 53, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3038 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):
Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/...l.pdf

How so, ??
When they asked the critical question, 50% were going to vote for Obama and Biden in the Battleground states....



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinePu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 54, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3033 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):

I don't think this is oversampling Democrats if Democrats are in fact in the Ohio population +8 over Republicans, eg if Democrats are out-registered in Ohio by 8% over Republicans. In Ohio the state officials don't release party affiliation registrations (as far as I can find), but nationally Democrats out-register Republicans by about 35 to 28%, with the rest independent

Given tha both PPP and Gravis found 8% more Dems than Republicans, I suspect thats because Democrats are that much more represented among likely voters in Ohio. This is where party-weighting, which Rasmussen applies to their results, comes into effect, based on his opinion that Dems will not show up to vote as highly as straight polling indicates.

Pu


User currently offlinePu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 55, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3011 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):


Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/oct/NPROctpoll.pdf


The most interesting thing in this document to me is that about 80% of Republicans are married and only a bit more than half of Democrats are.

19. Do you approve or disapprove of the way Barack Obama is handling his job as President?
In battleground states [BAT COLUMN]

52% Approve
46% Disapprove

21. If the election for President were being held today and the candidates for President and Vice President are (ROTATE: Mitt Romney and Paul Ryan, the Republicans, and Barack Obama and Joe Biden, the Democrats), for which candidates would you vote?
In battlefround states [BAT column]

46% Romney
50% Obama




What bad news for Team Obama?




Pu


User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 56, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3007 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 48):

So I took a few minutes to review Gravis Marketing's data as provided via the link in your source. It appears that this Jim Spencer character who wrote the article doesn't have any background in statistics. His version of "over-sampling" is that one segment is represented more in the data than another segment...well yeah, because he's going on the assumption that constituents are on a normal distribution, which is grossly incorrect. Skew is a natural part of demographics in every population everywhere.

But for the sake of the discussion, let's say there was an "over-sampling" of Democrats in this particular poll. This is what we call "sampling error". And what do we do with sampling error? We calculate a "margin-of-error".

After factoring in the margin-of-error in this poll, we see that the delta between Obama and Romney falls within the margin-of-error, meaning we can't tell anything from these results other than the two are close.

Anyway, somebody needs to write Jim telling him that he can settle down because this "over-sampling" has already been factored into the published results.

(I should also point out that 8% over-sampling isn't "whopping" when you have such a small sample size. If n>1000, then we could maybe use some adjectives.)

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 50):
Wow - this NPR poll definitely spells bad news for Team Obama:

http://media.npr.org/documents/2012/...l.pdf

What about it is bad news? It has similar findings as just about every other poll we've been discussing. In fact, some of the metrics actually favour Obama.



Flying refined.
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19505 posts, RR: 58
Reply 57, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 2992 times:

Quoting seb146 (Reply 30):

And the right-wing was so worried about voter fraud. Just not the voting machines. I wonder why....

Those who yell the loudest are usually the most guilty.

Quoting Pu (Reply 55):

What bad news for Team Obama?

Oh, so now all the Democrats can stay home because we're safe?  


User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 58, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 2972 times:
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Quoting mt99 (Reply 51):
What part of it exactly?

Many parts:

- voter enthusiasm is clearly favoring Romney, not Obama
- independents are clearly leaning Romney
- responses to key points for this election (economy, deficit reduction) favor Romney
- Romney leads in the "who would you vote for today?" category

[Edited 2012-10-30 15:19:21]


"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2071 posts, RR: 2
Reply 59, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 2954 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 33):
Despite these numbers, I still think Obama and his Chicago thugs will make sure he wins a 2nd term.

Ah nice, we're already getting the post-election narrative fixed up.   Well, better be prepared I guess.



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlineeinsteinboricua From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2010, 3048 posts, RR: 8
Reply 60, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 2901 times:

Huffington Post still has Ohio as a tossup (as well as Iowa) but give Obama an edge in both. The only state that's a tossup and is leaning for Romney is FL.


"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 61, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2884 times:

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 47):
and it needs to be curtailed before it starts on either side of the aisle, nothing "partisan" about it.

Why not tell the GOP that? Because they've already started. The GOP in Wisconsin has been incorrectly training their poll observers on the procedure to be used, telling them that people need a photo on any ID card that they have in order to vote (they don't), providing an incomplete list of acceptable identification, etc. And these are the people who will be making complaints to election officials and the campaigns when they see conduct that they (incorrectly) think is illegal.

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/201...61/romney-wisconsin-poll-watchers/

And then you've got poll workers in Texas who either aren't aware that voters don't require ID or who choose to say it's required anyway. I can't blame this one specifically on the GOP, but you can't say that it doesn't have the potential to disenfranchise those who are elderly, don't speak English well or just don't have a lot of time to wait around while poll workers have to deal with inappropriate challenges to voting.

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.c...-law-schmaw-demand-it-anyway.html/

And yet, somehow, international observers are insulting. What are people trying to hide?

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4581 posts, RR: 23
Reply 62, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 2879 times:

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 60):
Huffington Post still has Ohio as a tossup (as well as Iowa) but give Obama an edge in both. The only state that's a tossup and is leaning for Romney is FL.
http://www.realclearpolitics.com/epo.../oh/ohio_romney_vs_obama-1860.html

Latest polls for Ohio are still leaning Obama at this point...

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/18 - 10/29 -- -- 48.9 46.8 Obama +2.1
Rasmussen Reports 10/28 - 10/28 750 LV 4.0 48 50 Romney +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
CNN/Opinion Research 10/23 - 10/25 741 LV 3.5 50 46 Obama +4
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2
Time 10/22 - 10/23 783 LV 3.0 49 44 Obama +5
Cincinnati Enquirer/Ohio News 10/18 - 10/23 1015 LV 3.1 49 49 Tie


User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 63, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2794 times:

Quoting Pu (Reply 54):
if Democrats are in fact in the Ohio population +8 over Republicans,


But they're not.

Quoting Pu (Reply 54):
I suspect thats because Democrats are that much more represented among likely voters in Ohio.


Nope. They're not. The pollsters are anticipating a repeat of 2008.

Quoting WestJet747 (Reply 56):
We calculate a "margin-of-error".


I've never seen one of 8%. That is way too high, especially for an election this close.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinePu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 64, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 3 hours ago) and read 2782 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 63):
But they're not

Democrats out register Republicans by 8% nationwide. What source is there that says this is not the case in Ohio?

Quoting Superfly (Reply 63):
The pollsters are anticipating a repeat of 2008

No, Not in the major polls and not in the 2 you mentioned, PPP and Gravis.

Most major polls make NO ASSUMPTIONS about voter turnout by party, the simple fact is that there are noticeably more registered Democrats in the world, it's inaccurate to poll 50 Republicans and 50 Democrats....

MAINLY RASMUSSEN takes party ID snd weighs Republican responders more heavily than Democrats.

....most everyone else simply reports as polled without trying to predict voter turnout by party.

"PPP does not weight for party identification"
http://www.dailykos.com/special/Methodology

If 8% more Democrats answer the phone than Republicans, thats what they report in their poll results...no weighting for previous election turnouts is done. BTW, Gravis is elsewhere criticised for weighing too much towards Republicans when their poll sampled more Republicans in Virginia and they showed Romney winning that state.


Pu

[Edited 2012-10-30 23:13:07]

[Edited 2012-10-30 23:16:35]

[Edited 2012-10-30 23:34:16]

User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 65, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2770 times:

Quoting Pu (Reply 64):
Democrats out register Republicans by 8% nationwide.


Where are you getting that information from?
Again, Democratic turnout in 2008 was 8% higher in than Republicans in that election cycle.
No one, including Obama is expecting that level of enthusiasm in 2012.
Romney was down by as much as 11 points last month. That isn't the case now and it's obvious who has the momentum going in to this election.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 66, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 3 days 1 hour ago) and read 2764 times:
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Quoting Pu (Reply 64):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 63):
But they're not

Democrats out register Republicans by 8% nationwide. What source is there that says this is not the case in Ohio?

So you believe if it's that way nationwide, it must naturally also be that way in every single state? None are heavier R or heavier D, every state is the same?   



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlinewindy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2719 posts, RR: 8
Reply 67, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2729 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 61):
And yet, somehow, international observers are insulting. What are people trying to hide?

Barry showed his ID last week when he voted. Why do you still have a problem with it?



OMG-Obama Must Go
User currently offlineflipdewaf From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 1568 posts, RR: 1
Reply 68, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2715 times:
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Quoting windy95 (Reply 67):
Barry showed his ID last week when he voted.

Which one did he show?

Fred


User currently offlineAKiss20 From United States of America, joined Sep 2007, 607 posts, RR: 5
Reply 69, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2711 times:

Quoting Pu (Reply 54):
In Ohio the state officials don't release party affiliation registrations (as far as I can find)
Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 66):
So you believe if it's that way nationwide, it must naturally also be that way in every single state? None are heavier R or heavier D, every state is the same?

If Pu is correct that Ohio does not in fact release party affiliation registrations, then the best estimate one can make is the national average (or perhaps some sort of weighted average of other states that do release party affiliation weighting for demographics, socio-economic status etc etc but I don't see anyone here trying to do that) barring any further information. While this may be an inaccurate assumption, it seems the best one we can make given the information available/our willingness to further research the issue.

Thus, again barring any further information anyone has that they are not releasing, it is not illogical to claim that, to the best of our knowledge, pollsters are NOT oversampling democrats.



Change will not come if we wait for some other person or some other time. We are the ones we've been waiting for. We are
User currently offlineStarbuk7 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 599 posts, RR: 5
Reply 70, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 2709 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 61):
And yet, somehow, international observers are insulting. What are people trying to hide?


I/we are not trying to hide anything, I will show my ID to vote no matter if they want to see it or not. That is the way it SHOULD BE!!

Are you that worried that your precious Barrack is going to lose if you do not have all the illegal votes that might be out there?? Or the intimidation at the polls from the Black Panthers??

I find this laughable!!


User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6575 posts, RR: 6
Reply 71, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 2687 times:
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Quoting windy95 (Reply 67):
Quoting Mir (Reply 61):
And yet, somehow, international observers are insulting. What are people trying to hide?

Barry showed his ID last week when he voted. Why do you still have a problem with it?

I do. It shows that asking for ID does not stop foreign nationals from voting.. 



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlineLifelinerOne From Netherlands, joined Nov 2003, 1919 posts, RR: 7
Reply 72, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2694 times:

Quoting flipdewaf (Reply 68):
Which one did he show?

His Mombasa drivers license of course, along with a list of his grades from the Nairobi University.  

Cheers!   



Only Those Who Sleep Don't Make Mistakes
User currently offlineWestJet747 From Canada, joined Aug 2011, 1830 posts, RR: 10
Reply 73, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 2657 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 63):
I've never seen one of 8%. That is way too high, especially for an election this close.

Hopefully you never see a margin-of-error of 8%, because it would signal that the results are not reliable. But my original point being: I don't believe Jim Spencer's numbers. Using the info provided, I did some of my own math, and I couldn't come up with an "8% over-sampling" anywhere. At least not in the way he defines it. Although I can't prove it, he seems to assign value to the fact that more women vote Democrat, and that more women made up the sample of respondents, so he credits those numbers, which is a bogus way of doing statistics.



Flying refined.
User currently offlinepu From Sweden, joined Dec 2011, 695 posts, RR: 13
Reply 74, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 15 hours ago) and read 2621 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 65):

Where are you getting that information from?

The Pew center tracks party affiliation and says its now about 35% Democrats, 28% Republican, the remaining independent. In 2008 the Dem advantage was more like 10% in registrations over Republicans.

http://www.people-press.org/2012/08/...loser-look-at-the-parties-in-2012/

At the end of last year, USA Today pegged it at 42 million registered Democrats and 30 million registered Republicans.

http://usatoday30.usatoday.com/news/...oters-political-parties/52171688/1

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 66):

So you believe if it's that way nationwide, it must naturally also be that way in every single state?

In absence of Ohio registraton data how can the Republicans claim polls are "oversampling Democrats" when the nationwide data indicate there are that many (~7%) more registered Democrats than Republicans? Democrats make up noticeably more of the population of likely voters (v. Republicans) likewise they make up more of the people polled.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 65):
Again, Democratic turnout in 2008 was 8% higher in than Republicans in that election cycle.
No one, including Obama is expecting that level of enthusiasm in 2012.

This is IRRELEVANT to most polls (except Rasmussen) which do not try to predict turnout by party affiliation.

Rasmussen takes your allegation that "no one" is expecting as strong Democratic turnout in 2012 and adjusts their polling results accordingly, favouring Republicans.

Because Rasmussen so heavily favours Republican poll respondants versus Democrats, the bottom tenth of the classroom assumed everyone else in the polling business must be favouring Democrats. These slow studies "prove" this allegation by showing that Democrats are often represented in higher numbers in polls versus Republicsans.

..... But, In fact most every major poll does not try to predict voter turnout by party and more Democrats appear in polls because there are more Democrats! The most Republicans can say is that other polls should adjust their numbers to reflect the allegedly pre-proven diminished Democratic turnout, like Rasmussen does.....but most do not.

Pu

[Edited 2012-10-31 11:05:12]

User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 75, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2570 times:

Quoting pu (Reply 74):
The Pew center tracks party affiliation and says its now about 35% Democrats, 28% Republican



Based on the 2008 election.

Quoting pu (Reply 74):
Rasmussen takes your allegation that "no one" is expecting as strong Democratic turnout in 2012 and adjusts their polling results accordingly, favouring Republicans.



Rasmussen isn't the only poll that isn't oversampling Democrats. Stop worrying about this because the only poll that matters will come out next week. It's too close to call. It would be foolish for any side to claim victory at this point.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 76, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2566 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 75):
It's too close to call.

The only people that say a runaway election is too close to call are the people who are behind in the polls.

Republicans cannot admit that they have a serious amount of ground to catch up on because it would be demoralizing.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 77, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2559 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 76):
The only people that say a runaway election

This isn't a "runaway election". Even Obama isn't saying that.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 78, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2545 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 77):
This isn't a "runaway election". Even Obama isn't saying that.

Doesn't matter. The Right can't even admit that Obama has a clear lead. Instead, they simply say "the polling is inaccurate."

Talk about arrogance. If the polling isn't going the Right's way, it must be inaccurate.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 79, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2534 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 78):
The Right can't even admit that Obama has a clear lead.



Why are you so caught up on what "the right" or the Republicans are saying?
Even Obama isn't claiming to have a clear lead. No one has a clear lead.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 80, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2523 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 79):
Even Obama isn't claiming to have a clear lead. No one has a clear lead.

When in your lifetime have you ever heard a candidate claim to have the lead in the polls? They never would, for fear of diminishing their own turnout.

I don't base my opinion on what Obama has said about his position. I base my opinion on the fact that NO poll has ever shown Romney with an electoral college lead in the last 3 months. If you can find one, I'm all ears.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 81, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 2508 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 80):
When in your lifetime have you ever heard a candidate claim to have the lead in the polls?



So now it has to come from the candidates mouth?   
Everyone knew Clinton and Reagan would be re-elected at this point of the election cycle.
It sounds like you're trying to get users to claim victory in this thread before the election.
You're the only one implying that Obama has some huge lead.

Quoting D L X (Reply 80):
NO poll has ever shown Romney with an electoral college lead in the last 3 months.



A few days ago have Romney at 206, Baraq at 201. RCP changes daily but there is no point is showing a poll with a Romney lead when anyone else can show a poll with an Obama lead. It's too close to call and again, it would be foolish for any side to claim a significant lead.
How much more do you want to argue about this?



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 82, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 2488 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 81):
So now it has to come from the candidates mouth?   

When YOU say it does, or it doesn't count, I suppose so. (You're arguing against your own point now.)

Quoting Superfly (Reply 81):
You're the only one implying that Obama has some huge lead.

No. I'm arguing that people (almost always Republicans) saying that this thing is a toss-up are not paying attention to the realities.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 81):
A few days ago have Romney at 206, Baraq at 201.

Right, so not including at least 10 states. How does that show Romney having an electoral college lead when you simply ignore a large chunk of the electors?

Account for all the electors and which way you think they will vote, and you have ZERO polls that give Romney a lead. It's only too close to call if you don't want to call it.

7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours: Obama +2, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +3, Obama +5, Obama +5, Obama +5.

That's according to Fivethirtyeight, so I assume the next move is to say fivethirtyeight is biased.



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User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 83, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2437 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 82):
7 polls released in Ohio in past 48 hours

D L X, if you give the subject a moment's thought - given that there are several million people in the North-East still with no power, and any number of telephone cables down - you'll realise that any polls published 'in the past 24 hours' are valueless. In fact, most polls that are still publishing are just giving out the same numbers they had recorded before 'Sandy,' and the premier 'tracking poll' organisation, Gallup, has shut down its whole polling operation until further notice:-

"WASHINGTON - Superstorm Sandy has left America’s political leadership deaf and blind in the critical final days of many hard-fought campaigns that will determine control of the White House and the U.S. Senate.

"Public opinion polling operations were disrupted Monday and Tuesday because the storm cut power and telecommunication services to millions of voters in the Northeast and in the battleground states of Ohio and Virginia.

"As a result of the storm, the Gallup Poll has suspended its daily tracking of the presidential race.

“There is so much disruption that it would not be an accurate rendering of what is going on,” said Frank Newport, editor-in-chief for the Gallup Organization based in Princeton, N.J. “The latest estimates are that up to 8 million people don’t have power. When you call into our office here at Princeton, you get: ‘All circuits are busy’.”


Read more: http://www.newsnet5.com/dpp/news/pol...-states1351687078373#ixzz2AwB6YewJ

So no-one knows anything 'solid' about the current state of public opinion in the most populous part of the USA (including Ohio).

[Edited 2012-10-31 20:32:59]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 84, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2425 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 83):
given that there are several million people in the North-East still with no power, and any number of telephone cables down - you'll realise that any polls published 'in the past 24 hours' are valueless.

What does that have to do with polls in Ohio?   (Ohio isn't in the northeast.)

(I'm not sure you know this, being an Aussie, so if you do, I apologize.) The President is chosen by winning a weighted majority of the individual states -- 270 points (electoral votes) to win. Ohio, being worth 20 points, is a pretty weighty state that in the last couple decades does not have a set political personality like states like Texas (which bleeds red) or New York (which bleeds blue). It swings between red and blue, giving it the term "swing state." This year (as is commonly the case), most of the states were locked up before we even knew the candidates. The winner of Ohio is all but certain to be the next president.

The disaster was in the states of New Jersey, New York, and spotty portions of Maryland, Delaware, Pennsylvania and Virginia, where only Virginia is a swing state, the others being true blue. (West Virginia, North Carolina and Tennessee also got a dumping of snow, but those states are quite red -- red to the point that the storm wouldn't change that, so no one cares about polling there anyway.)

Also, and importantly, Gallup is a national poll and not a state-by-state poll. As such, is virtually useless in determining who will win a presidential election. It's like assuming that the player with the best individual stats will lead his team to the most wins. Wins and individual stats are different axes upon which to measure. In fact, it has happened twice in presidential elections that the candidate with the most votes did not get the most points.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 83):
(including Ohio).

No really... Ohio was largely unaffected by Sandy.

[Edited 2012-10-31 20:55:12]


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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 85, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2424 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 82):
When YOU say it does, or it doesn't count,

When did i say that?

Quoting D L X (Reply 82):
saying that this thing is a toss-up are not paying attention to the realities.

Anyone that thinks his is a "runaway" elecion is not paying attention to the realities.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 86, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 5 hours ago) and read 2417 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 85):
When did i say that?

You are the ONLY one that implied that what Obama says (or does not say) on this topic is relevant:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 77):
Even Obama isn't saying that.
Quoting Superfly (Reply 79):
Even Obama isn't claiming to have a clear lead.
Quoting Superfly (Reply 85):
Anyone that thinks his is a "runaway" elecion is not paying attention to the realities.

Anyone who thinks it is a toss-up is not paying attention to mathematics.

Now, I did not say that it was a runaway election. I am implying that Romney and his campaign know that if they don't say it is a toss-up, they fear (correctly!) that it will be a runaway. They are well aware of Nate Silver's correct analysis, giving Obama an 80% chance of winning this election, so they are doing whatever they can to suggest that it is actually a tight election.

It is not. If the election were held today, Obama would win. So you guys have 6 days to change that, but I doubt it.
To the original, misguided, opening post, Romney does not have a lead in Ohio. That is just horsehockey.



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 87, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2416 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 86):
Now, I did not say that it was a runaway election. I am implying that Romney and his campaign know that if they don't say it is a toss-up, they fear (correctly!) that it will be a runaway. They are well aware of Nate Silver's correct analysis, giving Obama an 80% chance of winning this election, so they are doing whatever they can to suggest that it is actually a tight election.

To be fair, Silver does predict the popular vote to be quite close. It's the electoral vote where Obama will win comfortably. Interestingly, it's also virtually guaranteed that Obama loses a state he won in 2008 with a less than 6% chance he wins one he didn't in 2008. To me that's somewhat indicative of an electorate that is less confident about Obama but not sold enough on Romney. I'd almost characterize it as a contest that Romney loses more than Obama wins.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 88, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2418 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 84):
No really... Ohio was largely unaffected by Sandy.

Agreed, the storm had lost a lot of puff by the time it reached them. But they sure were 'affected.'

http://photos.cleveland.com/clevelan...ortheast_ohio_cleans_up_after.html



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6591 posts, RR: 9
Reply 89, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2413 times:

Here the challenger in the polls was the incumbent, Sarkozy, and as the election drew closer he got some momentum and got closer to Hollande, then between the two turns he seemed very convinced he could win. He didn't, but it was a far closer election than anticipated (48.5/51.5). I'm sure that his conviction helped him, even though what he was proposing was crazy and now his party is trying to forget he ever said many things he said.

So, does Romney appear to believe he can win ? For the little I've seen I just can't connect with him so I don't know. I can't connect with Sarkozy either but after seeing him on TV every day for 10 years I could read him.

I watch a daily show about current events called "C dans l'air" (it's in the air) and one of the journalists/commentator was telling that she knew Romney when she was a kid and him a young man, as her parents where acquaintances of him (I'm guessing when he was on a Mormon mission in France). She said he was nice, and that she remembered him only because someone said at the time that he would one day be president ! Now that I'm writing this I'm realizing that it wasn't that far fetched considering his father, she forgot to mention that.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 90, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2408 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 86):
You are the ONLY one that implied that what Obama says (or does not say) on this topic is relevant:



Ok we're going in circles now.   
YOU were the only one claiming that this is a "runaway" election and that Obama has some big lead. I just pointed out that no one is saying that. It is a close election.
Let me re-phrase and hopefully this won't be as offensive; No one is saying that Obama has a huge lead. Even Obama's re-election team isn't saying that.
Now does that sound better?

Quoting Aesma (Reply 89):
For the little I've seen I just can't connect with him


He doesn't need to since he's not expecting you to vote for him.  



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1906 posts, RR: 9
Reply 91, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2387 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 89):
For the little I've seen I just can't connect with him so I don't know.

Perhaps if he were addressing you in your native tongue, savez-vous qu'il peut parler francais couramment?  
Completely off-topic, but how interesting do you think it would be to the French to have a sitting American president address them...in French?

In fact I'm rather surprised he didn't make a stop-over in France when he went abroad, you know the Parisians must have been loving him after his critique of the London Olympics!


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 92, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2386 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 87):
Interestingly, it's also virtually guaranteed that Obama loses a state he won in 2008 with a less than 6% chance he wins one he didn't in 2008. To me that's somewhat indicative of an electorate that is less confident about Obama but not sold enough on Romney.

thats all about Indiana. Obama won it in 08. That's virtually guaranteed to revert to its redness in 12. That's all it takes for the stat "Obama loses a state he won" to be near 100%.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 88):
Quoting D L X (Reply 84):
No really... Ohio was largely unaffected by Sandy.

Agreed, the storm had lost a lot of puff by the time it reached them. But they sure were 'affected.'

http://photos.cleveland.com/clevelan...ortheast_ohio_cleans_up_after.html

The amount that Ohio (on its lakefront) was affected isn't even in the same zip code as what happened in New Jersey. Hardly enough to prevent polling or voting, which was your premise.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 90):
YOU were the only one claiming that this is a "runaway" election and that Obama has some big lead. I just pointed out that no one is saying that. It is a close election.

No, look at what I wrote again. Republicans think its a runaway, or fear a runaway, which is why they (and you) are insisting that it is close. That is not reality, and the math bears that out.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 90):
Let me re-phrase and hopefully this won't be as offensive; No one is saying that Obama has a huge lead. Even Obama's re-election team isn't saying that.

Supe, that is not the claiming was refuting. Again, your claim, which I refute, is that this is a close election. It is not.



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 93, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2384 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 92):
thats all about Indiana. Obama won it in 08. That's virtually guaranteed to revert to its redness in 12. That's all it takes for the stat "Obama loses a state he won" to be near 100%.

Obama won 53% or so of the popular vote in 2008. Now he's projected to get 50.5%, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 94, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2374 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 92):
Again, your claim, which I refute, is that this is a close election. It is not.


You are the only person denying that his is a close election. That's fine. You're entitled to your own opinion.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 93):
Obama won 53% or so of the popular vote in 2008. Now he's projected to get 50.5%, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.


  
If Obama was a good President, he would be looking to pick up states he lost in 2008 but that isn't going to happen.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinecws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 95, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 2367 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 93):
Obama won 53% or so of the popular vote in 2008. Now he's projected to get 50.5%, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Nor is it a ringing endorsement of Mitt Romney's candidacy.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 94):
If Obama was a good President, he would be looking to pick up states he lost in 2008 but that isn't going to happen.

If, for instance, Obama were to win Arizona and Montana, for example, would you then consider him to be a good president? If not, what is your point?



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 96, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2359 times:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 95):
Nor is it a ringing endorsement of Mitt Romney's candidacy.

That's what I'm getting at: it's going to be more of a Romney loss than an Obama win. It's like one of those games where a team plays a fairly poor game but gets away with it because they are playing bad competition.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 97, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2352 times:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 95):
If, for instance, Obama were to win Arizona and Montana

He's not, so what's your point?

Quoting cws818 (Reply 95):
If not, what is your point?

If Obama was a good President, he would be looking to pick up states he lost in 2008.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 98, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 2349 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 96):
It's like one of those games where a team plays a fairly poor game but gets away with it because they are playing bad competition.

I think you've pretty well 'nailed it' there, BMI727.

I've always been 'left of centre' in political terms - and of course the US elections don't directly concern me. Except that I have family there (in California); and that, in any case, what the US president does or doesn't do often affects the whole world, including Australia, particularly in economic terms. The economic side is always important to me; I 'majored' in it and spent most of my life in business.

In this case I guess that I started off following this campaign in a neutral state of mind. But at this late stage, I'm left with two main impressions. Firstly that Obama, looking back at his first term, hasn't really done much; and isn't proposing to do much more in his second term either. And secondly that Romney has at least been concentrating on, and talking a lot of sense about, what I consider to be the key issues at this time. The US economy, and most of all jobs.

I believe that history shows that the vast majority of presidents win a second term. And the polling results so far tend to show that Obama will win one too; albeit narrowly, with much-reduced support in Congress. Can't help feeling, though, that if he does, we can look forward to a lot more 'economic crisis' threads on here before things begin looking much better in terms of 'prosperity and progress'.........

Not just in the USA, but in the rest of the world as well.

[Edited 2012-11-01 00:02:22]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2071 posts, RR: 2
Reply 99, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 23 hours ago) and read 2328 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 87):
To me that's somewhat indicative of an electorate that is less confident about Obama but not sold enough on Romney. I'd almost characterize it as a contest that Romney loses more than Obama wins.

Exactly. With a proper candidate, the Republicans could have easily won this election. The current state of the U.S. economy isn't Obama's fault, but it's bad enough to get him kicked out of office. However, remembering the crazy line-up of candidates the Republicans presented early in the year, you kind of knew already then that they were going to blow it.

The other day I idly wondered whether Jon Huntsman wouldn't have been able to win against Obama. I'm pretty sure he would have.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 94):
You are the only person denying that his is a close election.

If it helps, I too deny it. Right now you can't really call it close. It may close in in the next days of course.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 97):
If Obama was a good President, he would be looking to pick up states he lost in 2008.

Why don't you just answer his question:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 95):
If, for instance, Obama were to win Arizona and Montana, for example, would you then consider him to be a good president?



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User currently offlineracko From Germany, joined Nov 2001, 4856 posts, RR: 20
Reply 100, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 2314 times:

The people who have a vested financial interest in getting their predictions right seem to be quite certain which way this thing is going to go: http://www.oddschecker.com/specials/...on/us-presidential-election/winner

User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3411 posts, RR: 2
Reply 101, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2254 times:

I am not saying this is going to happen but it could. That the storm suppresses voter turnout in the NYC area and the more conservative vote in Upstate NY could carry the day. Just saying.


"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 102, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2258 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 94):
You are the only person denying that his is a close election.

I'm really not the only one denying it is a close election. I've tried to point you to a *very* respected source that strongly disagrees, but you're not tryin' to hear that.

fivethirtyeight.com

Quoting Superfly (Reply 94):
That's fine. You're entitled to your own opinion.

It's not my opinion. It's math.



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User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 103, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2252 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 101):
That the storm suppresses voter turnout in the NYC area and the more conservative vote in Upstate NY could carry the day. Just saying.



Not going to happen. Obama is a good 25-30 points ahead in New York.

Quoting D L X (Reply 102):
I've tried to point you to a *very* respected source that strongly disagrees, but you're not tryin' to hear that.


I can play this game all day & night of who's poll is better than the others. The polls are all over the place. It's kind of silly when the only poll that matters comes out next week.
You're not being graded for this so why does it matter if others aren't as optimistic about your candidate?

Quoting D L X (Reply 102):
It's not my opinion. It's math.



Cute but every poll uses math.  



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 104, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2236 times:

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 101):
I am not saying this is going to happen but it could. That the storm suppresses voter turnout in the NYC area and the more conservative vote in Upstate NY could carry the day. Just saying.

And I hope that doesn't happen. I'd rather have my favorite candidate lose fair and square than steal the election


DLX - I think you may be misunderstanding what some are saying about it being a close race. Most people I've talked to, me included, knows that RIGHT NOW the President has a very high chance of winning. Fivethrityeight gives high odds of him winning OH which would win him the country.

What I'm saying isn't that right now it's close and could go either way in OH... assuming the polls are unbiased, the President has OH down pat. What I mean is the President is one mishap away from shifting the numbers a few % in OH, losing it and losing the election. He basically has a very clear shot, but it's close in that a single mistake can be very unforgiving and push him over the edge. I mean, who knows, maybe this stupid Bengazi-gate thing will have an email come out that looks very damning, enough to tip the scales just a bit in OH...

It's a very close race. Even with the President's high probability, a tiny error could make all of those numbers change



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User currently offlinebjorn14 From Norway, joined Feb 2010, 3411 posts, RR: 2
Reply 105, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2235 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 103):
Not going to happen. Obama is a good 25-30 points ahead in New York.

As it was probably the only thing Reagan and Mondale agreed upon, "Polls don't vote"



"I want to know the voice of God the rest is just details" --A. Einstein
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 106, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2229 times:

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 70):
I/we are not trying to hide anything

Then let the observers in, and let them see whether the correct procedure is being followed.

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 70):
I will show my ID to vote no matter if they want to see it or not. That is the way it SHOULD BE!!

Irrelevant. The fact is that most states do not require photo ID. You can argue until you're blue in the face that it should be required, but you have to play by the rules. If some poll workers, either intentionally or because of bad training, are incorrectly enforcing the rules, that's a problem.

Quoting Starbuk7 (Reply 70):
Are you that worried that your precious Barrack is going to lose if you do not have all the illegal votes that might be out there?? Or the intimidation at the polls from the Black Panthers??

I'm concerned that people may be denied the right to vote because some poll workers are not up on what the rules are, yes. I'm concerned that people may be denied the right to vote because of rule changes implemented too late in the game and unfairly, yes. I have no interest in having people who aren't eligible to vote casting ballots, but I see that as no more fraudulent as denying people who should be able to cast ballots the right to do so.

As for voter intimidation, it shouldn't be tolerated, obviously. But that has absolutely nothing to do with ID requirements.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 93):
Obama won 53% or so of the popular vote in 2008. Now he's projected to get 50.5%, so that's hardly a ringing endorsement of his presidency.

Which is the way it should be - his presidency has had many flaws. But it would, at least, be a refutation of the Romney economic strategy, which is just as valuable.

Then with a weaker mandate, Obama would be forced to move more toward the center. With their primary goal failed, the GOP would also be forced to move toward the center. And then we could maybe get something productive done. So I don't necessarily see a weak mandate as being bad for Obama in the long run.

Quoting bjorn14 (Reply 101):
I am not saying this is going to happen but it could. That the storm suppresses voter turnout in the NYC area and the more conservative vote in Upstate NY could carry the day. Just saying.

If that happens, it will be a sign that the election is a sham. You know that New York should go Democrat. If it doesn't, then the election is being tampered with by external forces (not necessarily intentionally, but still tampered with).

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1906 posts, RR: 9
Reply 107, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2221 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 106):

Then with a weaker mandate, Obama would be forced to move more toward the center.

What motivation would Obama have to move toward the center if he no longer had to face an election?


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 108, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2212 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 103):
I can play this game all day & night of who's poll is better than the others.

Supe, we go way back, so respectfully, I say do yourself the favor of looking at fivethirtyeight's methodology before you say things like this. It's not about whose poll is better than the others. Fivethirtyeight is not a poll. Rather, it takes ALL the scientific polls (including Rasmussen!), determines their accuracy and precision, and uses math to calculate a prediction based on the aggregate of these polls.

Not conjecture. The math says it is not close, but rather Obama has a 4-to-1 shot of winning.

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/

Quoting Superfly (Reply 103):
The polls are all over the place.

The last seven polls in Ohio all were for Obama. That is not "all over the place."

Quoting Superfly (Reply 103):
You're not being graded for this so why does it matter if others aren't as optimistic about your candidate?

Hah! Your insistence that this is a toss-up is optimistic at best.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 104):
DLX - I think you may be misunderstanding what some are saying about it being a close race.

In a general sense, I would agree with you. But I am responding to the specific charge that:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 75):
It's too close to call.

It's that he believes the race is currently an unpredictable toss-up that I strongly challenge.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 104):
What I mean is the President is one mishap away from shifting the numbers a few % in OH, losing it and losing the election.

You can't base your odds of winning on whether a mishap occurs unless you also calculate the odds for the mishap.

Five days before the election, 95+% of voters have made up their minds. Have you ever seen polling shift in the last 5 days? I haven't, but I'm open to seeing some data that suggests otherwise. I'm ALWAYS about data. It's conjecture that riles me up.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 109, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2199 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 108):
You can't base your odds of winning on whether a mishap occurs unless you also calculate the odds for the mishap.

True, that is still why I think the President has it in the box. Maybe a better phrase would be that he doesn't have much wiggle room and a screw up can burn through his thin buffer.

But again, I agree with you, and I think the way things stands the President will win. I think the only real roadblock I see, besides a gaffe, is the alleged "over sampling of Democrats." We can go back and forth, and I'm not totally convinced, but I'd rather just sit back and see what happens in 5 days than open that can of worms.

I'm surprised fivethrityeight has VA going to the President. I thought that one was pretty much Romney's... we shall see



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 110, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2188 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 108):
Supe, we go way back, so respectfully, I say do yourself the favor of looking at fivethirtyeight's methodology before you say things like this.


Yes we do go way back but I'm just not as argumentative as I used to be. Well aware of Nate Silver's blog.
There is also Unskewed polls and Real Clear Politics.
So much talk about Rasmussen being conservative, PPP is very left-wing and they seem to have a lot more polls than Rasmussen.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 109):
I think the only real roadblock I see, besides a gaffe, is the alleged "over sampling of Democrats."


Or if the media starts talking about Benghazi.   



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 111, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2191 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 99):
The current state of the U.S. economy isn't Obama's fault, but it's bad enough to get him kicked out of office.

You can't give Obama a pass for any of this. The economy wasn't just foisted upon him. In 2008 he stood up and told us to elect him and he'll fix it. Now, four years later, not much is fixed. If you ask for the ball, you'd better catch the pass.

Quoting Mir (Reply 106):
But it would, at least, be a refutation of the Romney economic strategy, which is just as valuable.

If that's why people don't vote for Romney I can only hope that there are some remedial history classes for them. The Obama economic policy is his biggest issue with me. It's a bunch of things that haven't worked in the past.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 112, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2169 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 111):
You can't give Obama a pass for any of this. The economy wasn't just foisted upon him. In 2008 he stood up and told us to elect him and he'll fix it. Now, four years later, not much is fixed. If you ask for the ball, you'd better catch the pass.

You know, that is a really good point...

Of course, one must balance whether Romney or the President will do a better job, but yeah, I guess getting inherited with a bad economy is poor excuse.

About to go shower and actually head over to the voting office and early vote...



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6591 posts, RR: 9
Reply 113, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 14 hours ago) and read 2167 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 90):
He doesn't need to since he's not expecting you to vote for him.

Sure. You didn't answer my question, though. Since Romney is your candidate, do you feel he think he's going to win ?

Quoting Superfly (Reply 90):
No one is saying that Obama has a huge lead. Even Obama's re-election team isn't saying that.

Even if he had a huge lead, that's the last thing Obama/team should be saying anyway.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 91):
Perhaps if he were addressing you in your native tongue, savez-vous qu'il peut parler francais couramment?
Completely off-topic, but how interesting do you think it would be to the French to have a sitting American president address them...in French?

I'd say it has more to do with the alienness of US politics to a French, and especially the nonsense coming from the Republicans (not the economy, our right wing has the same basic ideas, but abortion, religion, etc.), but also the showy stuff, God bless us, etc. As for Romney and the French, I doubt it would matter much since I doubt he could be popular here, especially after W.

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 91):
In fact I'm rather surprised he didn't make a stop-over in France when he went abroad, you know the Parisians must have been loving him after his critique of the London Olympics!

He had nothing to gain, if the French could vote Obama would get 90% of the votes. And Parisians were quite glad to be close to the Olympics without having to pay for it ! In fact it even benefited France significantly, with some athletes training here, some British avoiding London by vacationing here, and some visitors to the Olympics making a stop here on their way to there or back home.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 96):
That's what I'm getting at: it's going to be more of a Romney loss than an Obama win. It's like one of those games where a team plays a fairly poor game but gets away with it because they are playing bad competition.

There are two sides to a reelection campaign. The results of the incumbent/the situation in general (not always linked to actual policies), and the campaign itself. It seems to me Obama did a good campaign, that didn't allow Romney to pick up momentum until very late.

I'm comparing this to Sarkozy's campaign that only started officially in February for an April first round, while Hollande had been campaigning for a full year at that point.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 111):
The Obama economic policy is his biggest issue with me. It's a bunch of things that haven't worked in the past.

The same can be said (and is being said by Nobel laureates) about Romney's economic plan. At the end of the day economics is half science half dogma, and you never know if a policy is one or the other.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21554 posts, RR: 55
Reply 114, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2121 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 107):
What motivation would Obama have to move toward the center if he no longer had to face an election?

If he wants to have a chance at keeping the White House occupied by a Democrat in 2016, he'll do it. If he doesn't care about that, then he might not, but you'd face the same situation with any incumbent going into a term-limited situation.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 111):
If that's why people don't vote for Romney I can only hope that there are some remedial history classes for them. The Obama economic policy is his biggest issue with me. It's a bunch of things that haven't worked in the past.

Said remedial history classes should include the 2000-2008 years, and what tax cuts left unpaid for did to the economy. Obama's plan is by no means perfect, but it's closer than Romney's fantasy that we can cut taxes and balance the budget without touching entitlements while upping military spending. At least Obama is talking about revenue increases, which have to be a part of the solution.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 115, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2119 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 113):
The same can be said (and is being said by Nobel laureates) about Romney's economic plan. At the end of the day economics is half science half dogma, and you never know if a policy is one or the other.

Actually deregulation and more hands off policies worked quite well during the 1980s, 1990s, and mid 2000s. And it doesn't take a Nobel Prize winner to figure out why raising taxes during a recession is a bad idea.

The Democratic plan is a selection of measures that flopped during the 1930s. Even if it is a choice between two plans that might not work, it's better to use the cheaper of the two.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 116, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2122 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 109):
Maybe a better phrase would be that he doesn't have much wiggle room and a screw up can burn through his thin buffer.
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 109):
I'm surprised fivethrityeight has VA going to the President. I thought that one was pretty much Romney's... we shall see

Well, if THIS happens, Obama's chances of winning Virginia could be affected. (How, it remains to be seen, since the storm would hinder the vote in Obama's stronghold of Northern Virginia but also in Romney's stronghold of Tidewater Virginia.)

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/...876c6a24_blog.html?wprss=rss_local


(With that said, it's still all about Ohio. Obama still gets 4-to-1 odds.)



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 117, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2105 times:

Quoting Mir (Reply 114):
At least Obama is talking about revenue increases, which have to be a part of the solution.

Not during a recession. We're going to be stuck with tax rates that aren't low for a while because of excessive spending, but raising taxes during a recession will only lengthen the recession.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20494 posts, RR: 62
Reply 118, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2098 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 86):
Anyone who thinks it is a toss-up is not paying attention to mathematics.
Quoting D L X (Reply 102):
I'm really not the only one denying it is a close election. I've tried to point you to a *very* respected source that strongly disagrees, but you're not tryin' to hear that.

fivethirtyeight.com

I haven't been following the ups and downs in this election cycle too closely, but have to ask you a question here. In today's blog post, 538 says:

"Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will."

This blog does state they believe it's a close race, even though they say Obama's chance of winning is 79% vs. 21% for Romney.

Is there a quick and dirty explanation for why they believe it's still a close race while at the same time predicting Obama winning the Electoral College by such a large margin?

538's methodology does look interesting, and they've got a good track record, but there's a lot to slog through to catch up on for this one question.

Thanks.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 119, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2077 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 115):
Actually deregulation and more hands off policies worked quite well during the 1980s, 1990s, and mid 2000s.

These policies didn't suddenly end in 2008. They caused 2008.

Remember: deregulation and hands off policies meant sub-prime lending and repackaging (securitizing) of misrated debt, which as you should recall, nearly killed us.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 118):
I haven't been following the ups and downs in this election cycle too closely, but have to ask you a question here. In today's blog post, 538 says:

"Mr. Obama is not a sure thing, by any means. It is a close race. His chances of holding onto his Electoral College lead and converting it into another term are equivalent to the chances of an N.F.L. team winning when it leads by a field goal with three minutes left to play in the fourth quarter. There are plenty of things that could go wrong, and sometimes they will."

This blog does state they believe it's a close race, even though they say Obama's chance of winning is 79% vs. 21% for Romney.

That certainly is cognitive dissonance, I agree. However, Silver does _not_ call this a toss-up, rather he notes there is a clear favorite. He basically has espoused the opinion of DeltaMD80, which is that Obama's clearly leading, but it is a lead that can be broken by Romney breakthrough.



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User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1906 posts, RR: 9
Reply 120, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2069 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
Remember: deregulation and hands off policies meant sub-prime lending and repackaging (securitizing) of misrated debt, which as you should recall, nearly killed us.

And deregulation and hands-off policies cause that how? Especially considering that it was the government's "hands-on" policies that created that artificial market and made it profitable to trade those junk securities.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 121, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2065 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 119):
Remember: deregulation and hands off policies meant sub-prime lending and repackaging (securitizing) of misrated debt, which as you should recall, nearly killed us.

Of course the government was spending the whole time waving pom-poms for home ownership. You can't let the government try and legislate bad decisions out of business, but the government also shouldn't be cheering them on.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 122, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2062 times:

Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 120):
And deregulation and hands-off policies cause that how?

Hands-off means let the private sector do what it wants. No referees, no one making sure they don't screw people, no one making sure they clean up their waste.

In this case, no one blocking sub-prime lending and securitization improperly rated debt.



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User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 123, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 2054 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 122):
No referees, no one making sure they don't screw people, no one making sure they clean up their waste.

There has to be some officiating, but no more than that. Liberals seem to often lose the distinction between a scam and a bad investment.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 124, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2044 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 123):
There has to be some officiating, but no more than that. Liberals seem to often lose the distinction between a scam and a bad investment.

And conservatives voice way too often the idea that any government regulation should be avoided. That's simply not the case. And yet, Romney has made it clear: if he is elected, he will return to the laissez faire of the 2000s -- the same BS that eventually screwed us over.



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User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 125, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2029 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 118):
Is there a quick and dirty explanation for why they believe it's still a close race while at the same time predicting Obama winning the Electoral College by such a large margin?

There are several states that the President is projected to win (making it a win by a large margin) but these few states only have the President up by a little bit... one mistake can bump the %s a bit and shift a few states red. That is why it's so "close" but the President is still expected to win by a lot



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User currently offlineflyguy89 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 1906 posts, RR: 9
Reply 126, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2032 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 122):
Quoting flyguy89 (Reply 120):
And deregulation and hands-off policies cause that how?

Hands-off means let the private sector do what it wants. No referees, no one making sure they don't screw people, no one making sure they clean up their waste.

In this case, no one blocking sub-prime lending and securitization improperly rated debt.

...and ironically enough there were attempts to curtail and investigate what was going on before 2008, and you'd never guess who it was that blocked all of those attempts.


User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 127, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2051 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 125):
That is why it's so "close" but the President is still expected to win by a lot

Kind of like a 3-0 baseball game in the bottom of the 9th with 2 outs, but the bases are loaded?



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User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2071 posts, RR: 2
Reply 128, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2051 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 111):
You can't give Obama a pass for any of this. The economy wasn't just foisted upon him. In 2008 he stood up and told us to elect him and he'll fix it. Now, four years later, not much is fixed. If you ask for the ball, you'd better catch the pass.

Sure. If you compared his promises in 2008 with what he actually achieved, he wouldn't deserve a second term. But you can't vote someone out of office without voting someelse in (unless your Belgian). That's why I agree to you that the outcome of the election says more about Romney's liabilities than Obama's assets.

I still think that Obama is mainly guilty of overpromising in 2008, not so much of underperforming during his tenure.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 109):

I'm surprised fivethrityeight has VA going to the President. I thought that one was pretty much Romney's... we shall see

Obama has been ahead on five of the last six polls in VA, according to Pollster. Still they see it as toss-up.



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20494 posts, RR: 62
Reply 129, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 2047 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 125):
That is why it's so "close" but the President is still expected to win by a lot

So in other words, brace ourselves for the onslaught of Electoral College threads come November 7th.   (Perhaps we can just repost the old ones?)



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7867 posts, RR: 52
Reply 130, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2035 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 129):
So in other words, brace ourselves for the onslaught of Electoral College threads come November 7th.   (Perhaps we can just repost the old ones?)

I hope there will only be one. I'm bracing myself for the "Romney won because of racists" or "Obama won because the media didn't cover Bengazigate" threads...



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6591 posts, RR: 9
Reply 131, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 10 hours ago) and read 2014 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 115):
Actually deregulation and more hands off policies worked quite well during the 1980s, 1990s, and mid 2000s. And it doesn't take a Nobel Prize winner to figure out why raising taxes during a recession is a bad idea.

The Democratic plan is a selection of measures that flopped during the 1930s. Even if it is a choice between two plans that might not work, it's better to use the cheaper of the two.

Raising taxes on a struggling middle class is of course a bad idea. That's Romney's idea (you know, closing the loopholes). Raising taxes on billionaires that don't know what to do with their money anyway will not hurt the economy. The US doesn't have that high taxes, and the US is the OECD country where the inequality is the biggest. Romney doesn't address this.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 132, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 2001 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 124):
And yet, Romney has made it clear: if he is elected, he will return to the laissez faire of the 2000s -- the same BS that eventually screwed us over.

It would be the same BS that allowed the banks to screw themselves over. Make it clear to them that if they mess up again, they're on their own.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 131):
Raising taxes on a struggling middle class is of course a bad idea.

Raising taxes on anybody in a recession is a bad idea. FDR managed to make the Depression longer by doing exactly that. And liberals that would cite the tax rates and economic booms during the Reagan or Clinton years to make a point should probably have "post hoc ergo propter hoc" tattooed on their foreheads.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 131):
the US is the OECD country where the inequality is the biggest. Romney doesn't address this.

That is not a problem that needs to be addressed by the government. The only thing they could do to address it includes lowering the ceiling and simply pushing everyone towards the middle, which is hardly fair and ultimately unproductive.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlinecaliatenza From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1575 posts, RR: 0
Reply 133, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1987 times:

for god sakes, im sick of Rasmussen. Everyone knows that damn poll is skewed toward the GOP. Oh, and this is what i am really worried about:

http://thinkprogress.org/justice/201...ction-results-for-weeks/?mobile=nc


User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19505 posts, RR: 58
Reply 134, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1977 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 132):
It would be the same BS that allowed the banks to screw themselves over. Make it clear to them that if they mess up again, they're on their own.

Do you happen to have money in a bank?

Banks going bankrupt was part of what went wrong in 1929.


User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 135, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1956 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 134):
Do you happen to have money in a bank?

Insured by the FDIC no less.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 136, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 1936 times:

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 133):
for god sakes, im sick of Rasmussen. Everyone knows that damn poll is skewed toward the GOP.

What is your current beef about them, caliatenza?  

I ask because Rasmussen has been showing the same estimated figures (Romney 49%, Obama 47%) ever since 'Sandy' - and they make it clear, every day, that they currently have access to limited data only.

"NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy. However, our survey interview calls are placed from a different location, so data gathering was able to continue. Today, we will release only a limited amount of data. The Rasmussen Challenge is also on hold until next week due to the weather."

And further, as I mentioned above, Gallup (another 'tracking pollster' that tends to collect a lot of flak from Obama fans) have stopped publishing polls for the duration due to 'incomplete data.'

So why the outburst?

PS - I should mention that I heard an interview on our radio last night with a lady in New York City, a journalist. She lives on the Upper West Side - about 80th. Street - and said that pretty well the whole of Manhattan, from just south of her, is still more or less completely 'blacked out' and without mains power.

No chance of carrying out any successful/'balanced' polls in areas suffering conditions of that sort. In fact, I suspect that in all the areas seriously affected by Sandy, the only poll we're likely to hear about in the near future is the one on Tuesday.......

[Edited 2012-11-01 19:00:07]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 137, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1886 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 130):
or "Obama won because the media didn't cover Bengazigate" threads...



More like voter fraud. I attended a Democratic Party event here in Bangkok 2 weeks ago. Several people were encouraging people to register at their address in Florida and Ohio. I had asked how to send in my absentee ballot. When I told them that I was a San Francisco, California voter, they asked if I wanted to re-register at a Florida address they had available.
I was a bit surprised to see this sort of voter fraud so brazenly open. I can only imagine how bad it is in countries with a higher number of US-expats.

Also, some pro-Obama groups are threatening riots if Obama loses.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 136):
"NOTE: Rasmussen Reports is based in Asbury Park, New Jersey and we were hit hard by Hurricane Sandy.


Damn, that means another Bruce Springsteen concert.   

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 136):
PS - I should mention that I heard an interview on our radio last night with a lady in New York City, a journalist. She lives on the Upper West Side - about 80th. Street - and said that pretty well the whole of Manhattan, from just south of her, is still more or less completely 'blacked out' and without mains power.

No chance of carrying out any successful/'balanced' polls in areas suffering conditions of that sort. In fact, I suspect that in all the areas seriously affected by Sandy, the only poll we're likely to hear about in the near future is the one on Tuesday.......



New York isn't being polled anyway - at least not in the Presidential race. New York's 29 electoral votes was never in-doubt of going to Obama. It's one of the bluest states in the country.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinecws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 138, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1880 times:

Quoting Rara (Reply 99):
Why don't you just answer his question:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 95):
If, for instance, Obama were to win Arizona and Montana, for example, would you then consider him to be a good president?

Yes, please do!

Quoting Superfly (Reply 137):
I attended a Democratic Party event here in Bangkok 2 weeks ago.

Why?



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently offlinecws818 From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 1176 posts, RR: 2
Reply 139, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1878 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 137):
Also, some pro-Obama groups are threatening riots if Obama loses.

Which groups?



volgende halte...Station Hollands Spoor
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39830 posts, RR: 74
Reply 140, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 1876 times:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 138):
Why?


Happy hour drink prices.  
I am still a Democrat after all.

Quoting cws818 (Reply 139):
Which groups?



Obviously no organized groups are going to take that responsibility. Individual supporters have been threatening violence online and we all know about the voter intimidation case in PHL that Eric Holder threw out.
Threats of riots is believable.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13547 posts, RR: 62
Reply 141, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 1859 times:
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Quoting Superfly (Reply 140):
Obviously no organized groups are going to take that responsibility. Individual supporters have been threatening violence online and we all know about the voter intimidation case in PHL that Eric Holder threw out.
Threats of riots is believable.

I've seen many threats of riots on Twitter if President Obama loses. Don't be surprised if that's trending on Election Night.



"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineflipdewaf From United Kingdom, joined Jul 2006, 1568 posts, RR: 1
Reply 142, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 1831 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting D L X (Reply 124):
And conservatives voice way too often the idea that any government regulation should be avoided.

Less regulation for industry, lots and lots of regulation for the public, I'm glad no one here wants to regulate my wifes vagina and no one here tries to tell my friend Anthony that he cannot Spend his life with the person he loves.

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 135):
Insured by the FDIC no less.

Surely thats just propping up the banks by the back door? The depositors will just say "Go take as many risks as you like, my money is safe no matter what you do with it" Surely its supposed to be the banks self regulating because of the shareholder/depositor risk? If there is too much risk people do not put their money in that bank? Like playing chicken on a computer game.

Fred


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 143, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 1825 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 137):
New York isn't being polled anyway - at least not in the Presidential race.

Sorry, Superfly, should have made it clear that I wasn't just thinking about New York. Sandy affected everywhere from Florida to Canada, and New York to Detroit, to varying degrees. And quite a few 'marginal' states, like Virginia, North Carolina, and parts of Ohio, were hit quite hard.

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2011-08-2...ricane-sandy-tracking-maps/4338708

[Edited 2012-11-02 04:43:38]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 2
Reply 144, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1806 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 137):
New York isn't being polled anyway - at least not in the Presidential race. New York's 29 electoral votes was never in-doubt of going to Obama. It's one of the bluest states in the country.

New York is always polled as it's votes count for the National polling that we all follow so heavily. Not that it matters wth the Electoral college, but when Rasmussen and Gallup have Romney up by 2 or 4 or 5, they are sampling all states.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinewindy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2719 posts, RR: 8
Reply 145, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1803 times:

Quoting caliatenza (Reply 133):
for god sakes, im sick of Rasmussen. Everyone knows that damn poll is skewed toward the GOP.

Can you show the weighting? A link to back up youur statement?



OMG-Obama Must Go
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 146, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 1805 times:

Quoting windy95 (Reply 145):
Can you show the weighting? A link to back up youur statement?

From http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/:

Sometimes, polls from a particular polling firm tend consistently to be more favorable toward one or the other political party. Polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, for example, have shown results that are about 2 points more favorable to the Republican candidate than average during this election cycle. It is not necessarily correct to equate a house effect with “bias” – there have been certain past elections in which pollsters with large house effects proved to be more accurate than pollsters without them – and systematic differences in polling may result from a whole host of methodological factors unrelated to political bias. This nevertheless may be quite useful to account for: Rasmussen showing a Republican with a 1-point lead in a particular state might be equivalent to a Democratic-leaning pollster showing a 4-point lead for the Democrat in the same state.



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User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4568 posts, RR: 2
Reply 147, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1780 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 146):
From http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes.com/methodology/:

Sometimes, polls from a particular polling firm tend consistently to be more favorable toward one or the other political party. Polls from the firm Rasmussen Reports, for example, have shown results that are about 2 points more favorable to the Republican candidate than average during this election cycle. It is not necessarily correct to equate a house effect with “bias” – there have been certain past elections in which pollsters with large house effects proved to be more accurate than pollsters without them – and systematic differences in polling may result from a whole host of methodological factors unrelated to political bias. This nevertheless may be quite useful to account for: Rasmussen showing a Republican with a 1-point lead in a particular state might be equivalent to a Democratic-leaning pollster showing a 4-point lead for the Democrat in the same state.

This bodes well for Obama.
Rasmussen today has the national race tied. It is amazing how Romney went from 50% 46% last week to a 48% tie today.

If Rasmussen releases another Ohio poll, I wonder if it will show the same trend?



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently onlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20494 posts, RR: 62
Reply 148, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 17 hours ago) and read 1759 times:

Quoting cws818 (Reply 139):
Quoting Superfly (Reply 137):
Also, some pro-Obama groups are threatening riots if Obama loses.

Which groups?

Take a look at this post then draw your own conclusions if these loudmouths could even organize a trip to the local Rexall for a bottle of mouthwash.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 149, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 13 hours ago) and read 1726 times:

More water to douse the "toss-up" fire:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...-for-saying-obama-is-the-favorite/

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 141):
I've seen many threats of riots on Twitter if President Obama loses.

Tell me: do you think they're worth listening to?

How about this one saying the court should stock up on guns if Obama wins?
http://www.foxnews.com/politics/2012...roop-presence-if-obama-re-elected/



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User currently offlineouboy79 From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 4581 posts, RR: 23
Reply 150, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1687 times:

Just to point out something, today's new Rasmussen poll for Ohio now has it as a tie. Obama is leading in every poll, but Ras, at this point...for Ohio.

Poll Date Sample MoE Obama (D) Romney (R) Spread
RCP Average 10/23 - 11/1 -- -- 49.0 46.6 Obama +2.4
Rasmussen Reports 11/1 - 11/1 750 LV 4.0 49 49 Tie
CNN/Opinion Research 10/30 - 11/1 796 LV 3.5 50 47 Obama +3
Ohio Poll/Univ of Cin. 10/25 - 10/30 1182 LV 2.9 48 46 Obama +2
SurveyUSA 10/26 - 10/29 603 LV 4.1 48 45 Obama +3
Gravis Marketing 10/27 - 10/27 730 LV 3.6 50 49 Obama +1
PPP (D) 10/26 - 10/28 718 LV 3.7 51 47 Obama +4
CBS/NYT/Quinnipiac 10/23 - 10/28 1110 LV 3.0 50 45 Obama +5
Purple Strategies 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 46 44 Obama +2
ARG 10/23 - 10/25 600 LV 4.0 49 47 Obama +2


User currently offlinemt99 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 6575 posts, RR: 6
Reply 151, posted (1 year 9 months 3 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1678 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Well this is intersting:

"The truth is, the next election has already been decided. Obama is going to win. It's nearly impossible to beat an incumbent president," advertiser Porter Stansberry wrote in the email to Gingrich supporters.

http://news.yahoo.com/errant-gingric...ail-obama-going-win-174518235.html



Step into my office, baby
User currently offlinecaliatenza From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 1575 posts, RR: 0
Reply 152, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1614 times:

If Ras is tied..it means Obama is leading  . They gotta come back to earth sometime.

User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19505 posts, RR: 58
Reply 153, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 1560 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 135):
Insured by the FDIC no less.

You do realize that's socialism and federal-centric, right? At least by the current "conservative" definition.

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 148):
Take a look at this post then draw your own conclusions if these loudmouths could even organize a trip to the local Rexall for a bottle of mouthwash.

Bingo, but let's consider the opposite scenario.

The Right Wing has been creating an alternate reality all its own. In this alternate reality, Mr. Obama is a foreign-born Muslim (as many as 1/3 of registered Republicans believe so) and he is going to take away all your guns on November 7 (and "Fast and Furious" was a conspiracy to make the move popular), Democrats are committing wide-spread voter fraud, and most importantly of all, the polls show a landslide Romney victory.

It's not just fringe wing-nuts who are spouting this stuff. Major media figures like Mr. Limbaugh and Mr. Beck are stoking the fires. Elected GOP officials (including presidential candidate, Mrs. Bachmann) have warned that the Obama administration is infiltrated by Islamic extremists, perhaps even with Mr. Obama's approval.

So on November 7 when some of these people wake up and find that Mr. Obama has been declared the winner (and there's a very good chance he will) what do you suppose they will believe? That the election was legitimate and that all the information they'd been fed was a big lie? Of course not. They'll believe that the election was rigged. And some are going to talk about revolution while others, I'm quite afraid, are going to have a crack at it.

In the last 30 years, pretty much all domestic terrorism has been right-wing. I'm talking about terrorism, not rioting. Rioting is disorganized and chaotic. Terrorism is carefully planned and usually has a specific motivation. There has been a drastic rise in extremist Right-Wing neo-nazi and "Patriot" groups since 2008. I'm very worried about what is going to happen, especially because I live in the "liberal hotbed" of San Francisco.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 36
Reply 154, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 1530 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 147):
Rasmussen today has the national race tied. It is amazing how Romney went from 50% 46% last week to a 48% tie today.

I don't see what is 'amazing' about it, casinterest? In PR terms, Obama was just about certain to get some sort of 'lift' from being free to 'act all presidential' over Sandy for a few days. And in any case, Rasmussen have been showing the 48/48 tie for three days now?

Rasmussen have been honest, and said that, given the disruption caused by Sandy, they only have limited information to work on. That's particularly important because they carry out 'tracking polls,' as far as possible polling the same people over three days rather than a random sample every time. The other 'tracking poll' specialists, Gallup, have suspended polling altogether because of the difficulty of contacting their samples. I don't know what the other (arguably less reputable) polling firms are doing; though life will be easier for most of them as very few try to do full large-scale national tracking polls like Rasmussen and Gallup.

Myself, given all the disruption (to phone lines and mobile towers as much as anything else), I don't think we'll get much in the way of 'hard' polling information from anyone for quite a while yet. Very possibly we won't get any more 'good stuff' until Tuesday.........  

[Edited 2012-11-04 04:47:17]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 155, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1446 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 153):
You do realize that's socialism and federal-centric, right? At least by the current "conservative" definition.

It's also fair and reasonable for the government to do. I've never said to throw the doors open completely. But there's a world of difference between the FDIC and saving car companies with our money.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineD L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 11265 posts, RR: 52
Reply 156, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1375 times:

Quoting BMI727 (Reply 155):
But there's a world of difference between the FDIC and saving car companies with our money.

No there isn't.
Both save private enterprises that are necessary for public benefit.



Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
User currently offlineBMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 15729 posts, RR: 26
Reply 157, posted (1 year 9 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1356 times:

Quoting D L X (Reply 156):
No there isn't.

Yes there is. My savings aren't going to be wiped out if GM goes under. And, by the way, FDIC only protects a relatively limited selection of investments.

Furthermore, the "I" in FDIC is insurance, which is exactly what it is. Straight from the FDIC website:

Quote:
The FDIC receives no Congressional appropriations – it is funded by premiums that banks and thrift institutions pay for deposit insurance coverage and from earnings on investments in U.S. Treasury securities.

A much more apt comparison is to government backed flood insurance. Banks pay for the insurance they receive, which gets passed on to bank shareholders and borrowers. If they don't like it, they can invest elsewhere.

Nobody asked whether or not investing in GM and Chrysler was a good idea.



Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
User currently offlineDreadnought From United States of America, joined Feb 2008, 8824 posts, RR: 24
Reply 158, posted