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Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes  
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12564 posts, RR: 25
Posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Hmm, let's see if this bold prediction becomes true:

Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday

Quote:

As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.


It goes on to give some interesting statements:

Quote:

There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election.

This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

Plenty to chew on here for both sides, however one stubborn truth is:

Quote:

The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4626 posts, RR: 2
Reply 1, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1183 times:

http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/

He is now pasting florida as slight obama. If he wins Florida with virginia, the total may be in the 320-330 range.



Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlinesw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6324 posts, RR: 9
Reply 2, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this  

User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19727 posts, RR: 58
Reply 3, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Quoting sw733 (Reply 2):

Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this

You're a bit late, but this is what InTrade is for.


User currently offlinekngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 404 posts, RR: 1
Reply 4, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1182 times:
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I think he'll narrowly take Florida as well, bringing the total to 332 to Romney's 206.

User currently offlineDarksnowynight From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1365 posts, RR: 3
Reply 5, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Quoting kngkyle (Reply 4):

Well that would be good, as it will quiet down the fuss WRT Ohio. While Obama's second term may as well be pre-ordained at this point, I think the last thing anyone wants is to have the inevitable conclusion drawn out longer than needed. I don't think we'll have a problem in Ohio on the scale of FL in 2000, the less opportunity there is for that to "matter", the better.



Posting without Knowledge is simply Tolerated Vandalism... We are the Vandals.
User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2093 posts, RR: 2
Reply 6, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 15 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

If Obama won Florida that'd be great, because then I could just go to bed and not miss anything.


Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlineracko From Germany, joined Nov 2001, 4857 posts, RR: 20
Reply 7, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1182 times:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtu.be

If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.  


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6669 posts, RR: 11
Reply 8, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19727 posts, RR: 58
Reply 9, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):

If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no?

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:59:43]

User currently offlinetugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5608 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10AM which is about 6AM your time, no?

I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Tugg



I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19727 posts, RR: 58
Reply 11, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1180 times:

Quoting tugger (Reply 10):
I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Yup. Fixed it.


User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 12, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1182 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):
If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.



International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinecasinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 4626 posts, RR: 2
Reply 13, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1182 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):
In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no

If Florida is close and Ohio is not(Obama favor) at 10:00 P.M EST, then I would think the networks will make a call by 10 or 11 EDT. Right as the majority of the west coast closes.


//edited to delete removed content.

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:17:38]


Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7914 posts, RR: 51
Reply 14, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1186 times:

Quoting racko (Reply 7):
If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.  

I know you posted this as a joke, but really, if someone was going to make corrupt voting machines, would they make it THAT blatantly obvious? I figured they'd show Obama as highlighted then secretly count it towards Romney...



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlinewindy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2727 posts, RR: 8
Reply 15, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

Quoting casinterest (Reply 13):
Quoting L-188 (Reply 7):
We cant afford four more years of obummer
it's attitudes like this that we can't affor

No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.



OMG-Obama Must Go
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6669 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

I'm 6 hours before east coast and 9 hours before west coast so at 10PM east it's 4AM for me and 10PM west is 7AM. Thanks for your answers, I guess we'll see as I don't work tomorrow.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineAeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20640 posts, RR: 62
Reply 17, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 13 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

No matter if you like him or not, rude names for our President show a lack of respect for the office. I'd hoped for better.


International Homo of Mystery
User currently offlinetugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 5608 posts, RR: 8
Reply 18, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):
No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

Actually, no it wouldn't. So stop lying as you do not anything more than any of the rest of us. We have survived 4 years and 8 years of other "terrible" Presidents and the country will "survive" which ever person is elected President today. And I wish people would stop the hyperbole.

This is a great nation and will do just fine ultimately.

Tugg

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:22:20]


I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7914 posts, RR: 51
Reply 19, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303


Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12564 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1179 times:

Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):
If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

Indeed, as the article says:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

So if the swing states really do swing it could indicate that the polls have faulty assumptions and it could not turn out well for Obama.

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

Seems you are correct, given that the article says:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct,

and:

Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):
Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio.

So they put Romney's odds of winning right around 20%.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineMir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 21637 posts, RR: 55
Reply 21, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1181 times:

Here's a pretty cool interactive page from the NY Times on what the various pathways to election for both of the candidates are.

http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html

Obama has 431 pathways (i.e. combinations of wins in various states) that would result in a win. Romney has 76. If Obama wins in Ohio and two other states (except if one of them is New Hampshire), he wins.

-Mir



7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
User currently offlineEA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 13608 posts, RR: 61
Reply 22, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1183 times:
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I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...


"In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
User currently offlineflyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 2411 posts, RR: 13
Reply 23, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1187 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):
To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

You're right here. I love statistics.  

In Bayesian statistics, probabilities have a probability of their own, so to say. You not only predict what the result will be, but also how sure you are - how much you're willing to bet on your prediction.

In that example, the council of Elrond said they were willing to bet the most money on 303 electoral votes.


David



Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
User currently offlinezckls04 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 1378 posts, RR: 4
Reply 24, posted (1 year 10 months 2 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 1182 times:

Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):
I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my $0.02...

This is quite funny:

http://www.theawl.com/2012/11/wholl-...e-the-wrongest-pundits-of-them-all

Quote:
Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Mad Money," in the Washington Post, Nov. 3, predicts that Obama will win 440 electoral votes to Romney's 98. "The presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest."

Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.



If you're not sure whether to use a piece of punctuation, it's best not to.
25 casinterest : Yeah, I think Cramer's is just as bad as Karl Rove's prediction
26 DocLightning : I keep running my predictions and I get 290.
27 Post contains links and images NoUFO : Many expats here apparently do. Amerika Haus in Munich hosts a party tonight, and I wish I was there, but I am getting tired already. That said, Berl
28 Post contains images DocLightning : Guess I pass the test.
29 Post contains images Ken777 : Looking at my voting place at 4:30 PM, two thirds of the precinct had already voted and there were two and a half hours left for the "final third" A v
30 steeler83 : Now that is some wishfull thinking (unfortunately)
31 EA CO AS : Congratulations to President Obama and his team on a hard-fought win. I hope my fellow conservatives will be gracious in defeat.
32 Aloha717200 : I'm thinking Obama gets 319 electoral votes, if Virginia goes Romney, Florida Obama, and Nevada Obama.
33 Darksnowynight : Yeah, it looks like this race won't be anything like as close as some were hoping for. He's looking about 90 votes ahead.
34 Post contains links D L X : It's looking like Obama is going to win Virginia. Nearly all the pro-Romney precincts have reported, and Obama has the lead. http://electionresults.v
35 Aloha717200 : So net result is that Obama only lost two states from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana. Pretty phenomenal considering how close this race was.
36 Post contains links and images MadameConcorde : From here in Europe at this time the BBC confirms an Obama win. President Barack Obama wins re-election President Barack Obama has been re-elected to
37 casinterest : According to CNN Obama just won Virginia There goes 303 Waiting on Fl for my 330+
38 Post contains images PHX787 : Wow, I guess I gotta concede this. Too much denial
39 pvjin : Great to see humanity and rightfulness win.
40 casinterest : We will have to see , but 2 of the tree states I have lived in have already gone Romney.... But I attribute it to the best of the best in thei milita
41 Post contains links Revelation : Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding: Quite interesting. I wonder if they got all the states right? Ref: http://news.yahoo.com/blog
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