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 Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes
 Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 15717 posts, RR: 28Posted Tue Nov 6 2012 03:34:33 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

Hmm, let's see if this bold prediction becomes true:

Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday

 Quote: As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.

It goes on to give some interesting statements:

 Quote: There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election. This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

Plenty to chew on here for both sides, however one stubborn truth is:

 Quote: The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.

 Inspiration, move me brightly!
 41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5821 posts, RR: 3 Reply 1, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:21:32 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 5 hours ago) and read 2061 times:

 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/ He is now pasting florida as slight obama. If he wins Florida with virginia, the total may be in the 320-330 range.
 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 sw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6543 posts, RR: 8 Reply 2, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:23:26 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23758 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:29:37 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Quoting sw733 (Reply 2): Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this

You're a bit late, but this is what InTrade is for.

 kngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 491 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:41:28 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2060 times: AIRLINERS.NET CREWFORUM MODERATOR

 I think he'll narrowly take Florida as well, bringing the total to 332 to Romney's 206.
 Darksnowynight From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1778 posts, RR: 4 Reply 5, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:56:42 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

Well that would be good, as it will quiet down the fuss WRT Ohio. While Obama's second term may as well be pre-ordained at this point, I think the last thing anyone wants is to have the inevitable conclusion drawn out longer than needed. I don't think we'll have a problem in Ohio on the scale of FL in 2000, the less opportunity there is for that to "matter", the better.

 You Sir, are a very funny lady.
 Rara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2507 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 07:12:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 If Obama won Florida that'd be great, because then I could just go to bed and not miss anything.
 Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 racko From Germany, joined Nov 2001, 4887 posts, RR: 19 Reply 7, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 07:46:55 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtu.be If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.
 Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 8788 posts, RR: 15 Reply 8, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:54:47 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?
 New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23758 posts, RR: 60 Reply 9, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:55:58 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Quoting Aesma (Reply 8): If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no?

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:59:43]

 tugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 6604 posts, RR: 10 Reply 10, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:58:43 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Tugg

 I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23758 posts, RR: 60 Reply 11, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:59:58 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Quoting tugger (Reply 10):I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Yup. Fixed it.

 AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 60 Reply 12, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:08:50 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

 International Homo of Mystery
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5821 posts, RR: 3 Reply 13, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:09:00 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night. I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no

If Florida is close and Ohio is not(Obama favor) at 10:00 P.M EST, then I would think the networks will make a call by 10 or 11 EDT. Right as the majority of the west coast closes.

//edited to delete removed content.

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:17:38]

 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 8724 posts, RR: 51 Reply 14, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:09:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2064 times:

 Quoting racko (Reply 7):If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.

I know you posted this as a joke, but really, if someone was going to make corrupt voting machines, would they make it THAT blatantly obvious? I figured they'd show Obama as highlighted then secretly count it towards Romney...

 Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 windy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2782 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:14:07 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Quoting casinterest (Reply 13):Quoting L-188 (Reply 7): We cant afford four more years of obummer it's attitudes like this that we can't affor

No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

 OMG-Obama Must Go
 Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 8788 posts, RR: 15 Reply 16, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:16:57 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 I'm 6 hours before east coast and 9 hours before west coast so at 10PM east it's 4AM for me and 10PM west is 7AM. Thanks for your answers, I guess we'll see as I don't work tomorrow.
 New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 60 Reply 17, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:17:22 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 No matter if you like him or not, rude names for our President show a lack of respect for the office. I'd hoped for better.
 International Homo of Mystery
 tugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 6604 posts, RR: 10 Reply 18, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:18:25 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

Actually, no it wouldn't. So stop lying as you do not anything more than any of the rest of us. We have survived 4 years and 8 years of other "terrible" Presidents and the country will "survive" which ever person is elected President today. And I wish people would stop the hyperbole.

This is a great nation and will do just fine ultimately.

Tugg

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:22:20]

 I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 8724 posts, RR: 51 Reply 19, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:19:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 1 day 2 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303
 Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 15717 posts, RR: 28 Reply 20, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 11:46:47 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

Indeed, as the article says:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

So if the swing states really do swing it could indicate that the polls have faulty assumptions and it could not turn out well for Obama.

 Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

Seems you are correct, given that the article says:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct,

and:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio.

So they put Romney's odds of winning right around 20%.

 Inspiration, move me brightly!
 Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 22862 posts, RR: 53 Reply 21, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 12:32:53 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Here's a pretty cool interactive page from the NY Times on what the various pathways to election for both of the candidates are. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html Obama has 431 pathways (i.e. combinations of wins in various states) that would result in a win. Romney has 76. If Obama wins in Ohio and two other states (except if one of them is New Hampshire), he wins. -Mir
 7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 15347 posts, RR: 60 Reply 22, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 13:12:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 22 hours ago) and read 2061 times:

 I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...
 "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
 flyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 4531 posts, RR: 18 Reply 23, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 13:41:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 21 hours ago) and read 2065 times:

 Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

You're right here. I love statistics.

In Bayesian statistics, probabilities have a probability of their own, so to say. You not only predict what the result will be, but also how sure you are - how much you're willing to bet on your prediction.

In that example, the council of Elrond said they were willing to bet the most money on 303 electoral votes.

David

 Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 zckls04 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 2489 posts, RR: 5 Reply 24, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 14:27:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...

This is quite funny:

http://www.theawl.com/2012/11/wholl-...e-the-wrongest-pundits-of-them-all

 Quote:Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Mad Money," in the Washington Post, Nov. 3, predicts that Obama will win 440 electoral votes to Romney's 98. "The presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest."

Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.

 Four Granavox Turbines!
 25 casinterest : Yeah, I think Cramer's is just as bad as Karl Rove's prediction
 26 DocLightning : I keep running my predictions and I get 290.
 27 NoUFO : Many expats here apparently do. Amerika Haus in Munich hosts a party tonight, and I wish I was there, but I am getting tired already. That said, Berl
 28 DocLightning : Guess I pass the test.
 29 Ken777 : Looking at my voting place at 4:30 PM, two thirds of the precinct had already voted and there were two and a half hours left for the "final third" A v
 30 steeler83 : Now that is some wishfull thinking (unfortunately)
 31 EA CO AS : Congratulations to President Obama and his team on a hard-fought win. I hope my fellow conservatives will be gracious in defeat.
 32 Aloha717200 : I'm thinking Obama gets 319 electoral votes, if Virginia goes Romney, Florida Obama, and Nevada Obama.
 33 Darksnowynight : Yeah, it looks like this race won't be anything like as close as some were hoping for. He's looking about 90 votes ahead.
 34 D L X : It's looking like Obama is going to win Virginia. Nearly all the pro-Romney precincts have reported, and Obama has the lead. http://electionresults.v
 35 Aloha717200 : So net result is that Obama only lost two states from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana. Pretty phenomenal considering how close this race was.
 36 MadameConcorde : From here in Europe at this time the BBC confirms an Obama win. President Barack Obama wins re-election President Barack Obama has been re-elected to
 37 casinterest : According to CNN Obama just won Virginia There goes 303 Waiting on Fl for my 330+
 38 PHX787 : Wow, I guess I gotta concede this. Too much denial
 39 pvjin : Great to see humanity and rightfulness win.
 40 casinterest : We will have to see , but 2 of the tree states I have lived in have already gone Romney.... But I attribute it to the best of the best in thei milita
 41 Revelation : Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding: Quite interesting. I wonder if they got all the states right? Ref: http://news.yahoo.com/blog
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