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 Obama Poised To Win 303 Electoral Votes
 Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 15711 posts, RR: 28Posted Tue Nov 6 2012 03:34:33 UTC (3 years 6 months 3 weeks ago) and read 2057 times:

Hmm, let's see if this bold prediction becomes true:

Obama still poised to win 303 electoral votes on Tuesday

 Quote: As the last full day of the 2012 presidential campaign gets under way, the Signal's prediction remains the same as it was nearly nine months ago: President Barack Obama will win reelection with 303 electoral votes, winning Ohio and Virginia but losing Florida to Gov. Mitt Romney.

It goes on to give some interesting statements:

 Quote: There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct, based on our prediction model, given the many combinations of close states that could go either way. Obama has a 24.8 percent likelihood of winning Florida, while Romney has a 40.8 percent chance of snagging Virginia and a 19.9 percent chance of securing Ohio. Romney needs to sweep all three states to secure the election. This may make it seem like all hope is lost for Romney — the odds of him defending Florida and taking Ohio and Virginia are about 6 percent if you simply multiply the probabilities. While the Signal is predicting an Obama victory, we're not calling it with 94 percent certainty. That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

Plenty to chew on here for both sides, however one stubborn truth is:

 Quote: The math is pretty basic: Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio. Romney can still win this election, but Obama is heavily favored as we head into the final stretch.

 Inspiration, move me brightly!
 41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5818 posts, RR: 3 Reply 1, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:21:32 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 http://fivethirtyeight.blogs.nytimes...ama-leave-romney-with-longer-odds/ He is now pasting florida as slight obama. If he wins Florida with virginia, the total may be in the 320-330 range.
 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 sw733 From United States of America, joined Feb 2004, 6543 posts, RR: 8 Reply 2, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:23:26 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23754 posts, RR: 60 Reply 3, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:29:37 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 Quoting sw733 (Reply 2): Not gonna lie, I kind of wish I were in Vegas to put some legit money on stuff like this

You're a bit late, but this is what InTrade is for.

 kngkyle From United States of America, joined Dec 2006, 491 posts, RR: 1 Reply 4, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:41:28 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2059 times: AIRLINERS.NET CREWFORUM MODERATOR

 I think he'll narrowly take Florida as well, bringing the total to 332 to Romney's 206.
 Darksnowynight From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1774 posts, RR: 4 Reply 5, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 06:56:42 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 21 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

Well that would be good, as it will quiet down the fuss WRT Ohio. While Obama's second term may as well be pre-ordained at this point, I think the last thing anyone wants is to have the inevitable conclusion drawn out longer than needed. I don't think we'll have a problem in Ohio on the scale of FL in 2000, the less opportunity there is for that to "matter", the better.

 You Sir, are a very funny lady.
 Rara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2507 posts, RR: 2 Reply 6, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 07:12:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 If Obama won Florida that'd be great, because then I could just go to bed and not miss anything.
 Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
 racko From Germany, joined Nov 2001, 4887 posts, RR: 19 Reply 7, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 07:46:55 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=QdpGd74DrBM&feature=youtu.be If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.
 Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 8788 posts, RR: 15 Reply 8, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:54:47 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?
 New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23754 posts, RR: 60 Reply 9, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:55:58 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 Quoting Aesma (Reply 8): If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no?

[Edited 2012-11-06 08:59:43]

 tugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 6603 posts, RR: 10 Reply 10, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:58:43 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Tugg

 I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23754 posts, RR: 60 Reply 11, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 08:59:58 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2057 times:

 Quoting tugger (Reply 10):I think you mean 10PM, correct?

Yup. Fixed it.

 AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 60 Reply 12, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:08:50 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Quoting Aesma (Reply 8):If things drag down a little but not too much, at what time should the results be known ?

If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

 International Homo of Mystery
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5818 posts, RR: 3 Reply 13, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:09:00 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night. I estimate that here on the West Coast we'll know about 10PM which is about 6AM your time, no

If Florida is close and Ohio is not(Obama favor) at 10:00 P.M EST, then I would think the networks will make a call by 10 or 11 EDT. Right as the majority of the west coast closes.

//edited to delete removed content.

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:17:38]

 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 8724 posts, RR: 51 Reply 14, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:09:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2063 times:

 Quoting racko (Reply 7):If all voting machines work like this it'll be a Romney landslide.

I know you posted this as a joke, but really, if someone was going to make corrupt voting machines, would they make it THAT blatantly obvious? I figured they'd show Obama as highlighted then secretly count it towards Romney...

 Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 windy95 From United States of America, joined Dec 2008, 2781 posts, RR: 8 Reply 15, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:14:07 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Quoting casinterest (Reply 13):Quoting L-188 (Reply 7): We cant afford four more years of obummer it's attitudes like this that we can't affor

No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

 OMG-Obama Must Go
 Aesma From Reunion, joined Nov 2009, 8788 posts, RR: 15 Reply 16, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:16:57 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 I'm 6 hours before east coast and 9 hours before west coast so at 10PM east it's 4AM for me and 10PM west is 7AM. Thanks for your answers, I guess we'll see as I don't work tomorrow.
 New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
 AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 60 Reply 17, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:17:22 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 No matter if you like him or not, rude names for our President show a lack of respect for the office. I'd hoped for better.
 International Homo of Mystery
 tugger From United States of America, joined Apr 2006, 6603 posts, RR: 10 Reply 18, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:18:25 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

Actually, no it wouldn't. So stop lying as you do not anything more than any of the rest of us. We have survived 4 years and 8 years of other "terrible" Presidents and the country will "survive" which ever person is elected President today. And I wish people would stop the hyperbole.

This is a great nation and will do just fine ultimately.

Tugg

[Edited 2012-11-06 09:22:20]

 I don’t know that I am unafraid to be myself, but it is hard to be somebody else. -W. Shatner
 DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 8724 posts, RR: 51 Reply 19, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 09:19:46 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303
 Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
 Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 15711 posts, RR: 28 Reply 20, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 11:46:47 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 16 hours ago) and read 2056 times:

 Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 12):If a clear winner in Pennsylvania isn't known soon after the polls close, this could drag out for a while, is my feeling. That's a state which should go to Obama, but if it turns out to be a real swing state, it could be an indicator of other races which could turn out as too close to call until a substantial number of votes are counted.

Indeed, as the article says:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):That is because state elections are not entirely independent events. The polls could be systematically biased toward Obama based on faulty assumptions about voter turnout, or the final polls could fail to capture a late surge in support for the Republican candidate.

So if the swing states really do swing it could indicate that the polls have faulty assumptions and it could not turn out well for Obama.

 Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

Seems you are correct, given that the article says:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):There is only about a 15 percent chance that we'll actually be correct,

and:

 Quoting Revelation (Thread starter):Romney can only be as likely to win the country as he is to win Ohio. Romney is currently 19.9 percent likely to carry Ohio.

So they put Romney's odds of winning right around 20%.

 Inspiration, move me brightly!
 Mir From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 22854 posts, RR: 53 Reply 21, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 12:32:53 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

 Here's a pretty cool interactive page from the NY Times on what the various pathways to election for both of the candidates are. http://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2...tics/paths-to-the-white-house.html Obama has 431 pathways (i.e. combinations of wins in various states) that would result in a win. Romney has 76. If Obama wins in Ohio and two other states (except if one of them is New Hampshire), he wins. -Mir
 7 billion, one nation, imagination...it's a beautiful day
 EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 15347 posts, RR: 60 Reply 22, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 13:12:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2060 times:

 I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...
 "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
 flyingturtle From Switzerland, joined Oct 2011, 4531 posts, RR: 18 Reply 23, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 13:41:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2064 times:

 Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 19):To be fair, he isn't poised to win 303... he has the greatest chance in a plurality of outcomes. In fact, Romney has a greater chance of winning than the President getting (exactly) 303

You're right here. I love statistics.

In Bayesian statistics, probabilities have a probability of their own, so to say. You not only predict what the result will be, but also how sure you are - how much you're willing to bet on your prediction.

In that example, the council of Elrond said they were willing to bet the most money on 303 electoral votes.

David

 Keeping calm is terrorism against those who want to live in fear.
 zckls04 From United States of America, joined Dec 2011, 2486 posts, RR: 5 Reply 24, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 14:27:52 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2059 times:

 Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...

This is quite funny:

http://www.theawl.com/2012/11/wholl-...e-the-wrongest-pundits-of-them-all

 Quote:Jim Cramer of CNBC's "Mad Money," in the Washington Post, Nov. 3, predicts that Obama will win 440 electoral votes to Romney's 98. "The presidential race is nowhere as close as the polls suggest."

Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.

 Four Granavox Turbines!
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5818 posts, RR: 3 Reply 25, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 14:42:53 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2095 times:

 Quoting zckls04 (Reply 24):Don't think I'd even put 2 cents on that one.

Yeah, I think Cramer's is just as bad as Karl Rove's prediction

 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23754 posts, RR: 60 Reply 26, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 14:51:13 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2105 times:

 I keep running my predictions and I get 290.
 NoUFO From Germany, joined Apr 2001, 7992 posts, RR: 11 Reply 27, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 14:57:15 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2149 times:

 Quoting DocLightning (Reply 9):In France, tomorrow morning. Don't stay up all night.

Many expats here apparently do. Amerika Haus in Munich hosts a party tonight, and I wish I was there, but I am getting tired already.

That said, Berlin would be even better. Check out pic #5 here
http://www.spiegel.de/fotostrecke/fo...n-sekunde-fotostrecke-89414-4.html
and if you don't understand, you are *truly* gay.

 I support the right to arm bears
 DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 23754 posts, RR: 60 Reply 28, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 15:02:43 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2152 times:

 Quoting NoUFO (Reply 27):and if you don't understand, you are *truly* gay.

Guess I pass the test.

 Ken777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 9248 posts, RR: 10 Reply 29, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 15:09:22 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 2147 times:

Looking at my voting place at 4:30 PM, two thirds of the precinct had already voted and there were two and a half hours left for the "final third"

A very heavy turnout in a very red state. (We're so red that the polls don't even bother with us.)

What you will see not are the folks that vote after work. A probable surge from people with a job.

Considering the heavy voting here I'll go with Romney ending up with a strong popular vote - maybe even beating Obama like the 2000 election, but not getting the EC votes necessary.

 Quoting windy95 (Reply 15):No four more years of Obummer will drag us into the the abyss.

No matter how he tries he won'd throw us deeper into the abyss than W did.

An unnecessary 10 year war.

The Great Recession.

 Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...

And you could be right. It ain't over until the results are in and there could well be surprises.

The big news (outside of who wins) will be any voter obstructions in Florida and Ohio. Potentially in other states, but I can see issues requiring a Federal response no illegal obstructions. I can also see a strong reaction to those causing the obstructions in the 2014 elections.

 steeler83 From United States of America, joined Feb 2006, 9409 posts, RR: 16 Reply 30, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 19:41:11 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 2125 times:

 Quoting EA CO AS (Reply 22):I'm predicting Romney 305, Obama 233. Just my \$0.02...

Now that is some wishfull thinking (unfortunately)

 Do not bring stranger girt into your room. The stranger girt is dangerous, it will hurt your life.
 EA CO AS From United States of America, joined Nov 2001, 15347 posts, RR: 60 Reply 31, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 20:26:35 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2129 times:

 Congratulations to President Obama and his team on a hard-fought win. I hope my fellow conservatives will be gracious in defeat.
 "In this present crisis, government is not the solution to our problem - government IS the problem." - Ronald Reagan
 Aloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4557 posts, RR: 14 Reply 32, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 20:31:38 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2118 times:

 I'm thinking Obama gets 319 electoral votes, if Virginia goes Romney, Florida Obama, and Nevada Obama.
 Darksnowynight From United States of America, joined Jan 2012, 1774 posts, RR: 4 Reply 33, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 20:47:40 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2117 times:

Yeah, it looks like this race won't be anything like as close as some were hoping for. He's looking about 90 votes ahead.

 You Sir, are a very funny lady.
 D L X From United States of America, joined May 1999, 12431 posts, RR: 51 Reply 34, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 20:51:41 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2128 times:

 Quoting Aloha717200 (Reply 32):if Virginia goes Romney

It's looking like Obama is going to win Virginia. Nearly all the pro-Romney precincts have reported, and Obama has the lead.

http://electionresults.virginia.gov/...=3545232527424045364&osn=0&map=CTY

It's looking like 331 electoral votes for Obama.

 Send me a PM at http://www.airliners.net/aviation-forums/sendmessage.main?from_username=NULL
 Aloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4557 posts, RR: 14 Reply 35, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 20:57:41 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2133 times:

 So net result is that Obama only lost two states from 2008. North Carolina and Indiana. Pretty phenomenal considering how close this race was.
 MadameConcorde From Monaco, joined Feb 2007, 11332 posts, RR: 34 Reply 36, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 21:05:53 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 2129 times:

 From here in Europe at this time the BBC confirms an Obama win. President Barack Obama wins re-election President Barack Obama has been re-elected to a second term, defeating Republican challenger Mitt Romney. With results in from most states, America's first black president has secured the 270 votes in the electoral college needed to win the race. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-20233064 281 electors for Obama says FoxNews - edited... now up to 290 Surprising but so it goes. Santa Claus is back in town.  [Edited 2012-11-06 21:12:50]
 There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5818 posts, RR: 3 Reply 37, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 21:46:14 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2128 times:

 According to CNN Obama just won Virginia There goes 303 Waiting on Fl for my 330+
 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 PHX787 From Japan, joined Mar 2012, 8384 posts, RR: 20 Reply 38, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 22:10:06 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2129 times:

 Quoting casinterest (Reply 37): There goes 303

Wow, I guess I gotta concede this. Too much denial

 pvjin From Finland, joined Mar 2012, 2836 posts, RR: 2 Reply 39, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 22:11:27 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2122 times:

 Great to see humanity and rightfulness win.
 "Optimism is the madness of insisting that all is well when we are miserable." - Voltaire
 casinterest From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 5818 posts, RR: 3 Reply 40, posted Tue Nov 6 2012 22:19:44 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 5 hours ago) and read 2124 times:

We will have to see , but 2 of the tree states I have lived in have already gone Romney....
But I attribute it to the best of the best in thei military and defense se industry .

I do believe there is a difference in mindset

 Older than I just was ,and younger than I will soo be.
 Revelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 15711 posts, RR: 28 Reply 41, posted Wed Nov 7 2012 02:01:10 UTC (3 years 6 months 2 weeks 6 days 2 hours ago) and read 2106 times:

Signal forecast goes 50 for 50 with Florida outstanding:

 Quote: Last February, the Signal predicted that President Barack Obama would win reelection with 303 electoral votes to his opponent's 235--a prediction we made before the Republican party had chosen the identity of that challenger. This struck many people as absurd at the time: There were nine months of campaigning left, two conventions, several billion dollars worth of advertising, four debates, and untold bumps in the road for both sides. As of 1 a.m. EST this morning, 50 of 51 of those predictions are correct, with about 60,000 votes separating the candidates in Florida. If Romney can win the state, the Signal will have gone a perfect 51 for 51.

Quite interesting. I wonder if they got all the states right?

Ref: http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/signal/s...florida-outstanding-062332033.html

 Inspiration, move me brightly!
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