The Washington political media abhors a news vacuum – and so it is that a dream contest between Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side and Jeb Bush for the Republicans steps into the breach.
The ever-breathless Politico is the first to go large on the subject, with a banner headline of "2016 election: Hillary Clinton v Jeb Bush?" – with the question mark as the only hint of reticence.
"What's certain," Politico's reporters declared, "is that Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush loom the largest over their respective parties as the long road toward 2016 begins."
I think the article is spot on and this has been my prediction for quite a while. Why else would Hillary be leaving Obama's cabinet? She's gotta distance herself from the administration because Biden's probably gonna run against her in the primary, though I don't think he'd win. I guess we'll have to see where things stand in four years, but I think that the economy will only marginally improve and jobs will still be at the forefront of the next election. As for Bush, the GOP would be wise to convince him to run as he would greatly help with the Latino vote (he speaks Spanish fluently I believe). Not to mention it would give them a leg-up on getting Florida's electoral votes. The only downside is that he's never really seemed THAT enthusiastic about running, and it could be another bruising/bitter GOP primary especially if the far-right Tea Party people get involved. Since I'm from Wisconsin, I personally don't see Scott Walker or Paul Ryan entering the race.
Will you watch the Cleveland Browns and the Detroit Lions on Sunday? Only if coach Eric Mangini resigned after a loss.
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5375 posts, RR: 47 Reply 1, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1322 times:
I don't get all this talk of 2016... last election was only 2 days ago. There could be rising stars in either party sprout up, the Tea Party might cause a civil war within the Republican Party, heaven forbid Hillary Clinton or Jeb Bush could die within 4 years...
very premature IMO. After GWB, I don't think Jeb Bush has much of a chance (good reason or bad, that's the way I see it)
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 16932 posts, RR: 57 Reply 4, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
Mrs. Clinton has said more than once that she is not interested in the job.
Look, she's just been SecState for four years. That is a horribly grueling job in which your circadian rhythm gets completely shanked. All the executive aircraft/AF1 and five-star hotel suites in the world don't make up for the comforts of just being at home and going to bed at the same time in the same bed every night. She's retiring from her job as SecState no doubt for the same reason that others have; she's exhausted. I think that she would like to settle down and enjoy some retirement.
Besides, she'll be 69 in 2016. The Presidency is not a job for someone that old. Just ask Mrs. Reagan what it was like for her husband.
In 2004, I had never even heard of Barack Obama and unless you are from Illinois, neither had you. In the spring of 2008, I turned to a friend fo mine and said: "Holy sh!t... the next President is going to be either a woman or a black man."
AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 19254 posts, RR: 63 Reply 6, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1325 times:
My guess on the GOP side is Jon Huntsman. He's a well-rounded conservative not influenced by the Tea Party, and will appeal to those on the right who feel this election was lost because it appeared too extreme. He also has real governing experience, having been Utah's governor not too long ago. You read it here first!
Neither Hillary or Biden will run on the Dem side. Both would be 73 or 74 upon taking office.
DocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 16932 posts, RR: 57 Reply 7, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
I predict that in 2016 we will see Paul Ryan running for President. He's young enough and he's familiar with the process now. Whether he'll get the nomination is a different question.
As for Jeb Bush, I think his brother pretty much ruined the family name. I doubt anyone with that last name will be running for President any time soon. That's a pity because he's actually pretty moderate.
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5): Paul Ryan is so 2012. He is sort of like Palin.
I disagree. Mrs. Palin was a disaster because she said so many absolutely outrageous and extremist things. Her egotistical personality really shone through in that campaign and then she quit as Governor of Alaska. Mr. Ryan actually kept his cool. He's not going to quit the house. I may disagree with him on almost every issue, but he's not full of psychopathological egotism like Mrs. Palin.
jetblueguy22 From United States of America, joined Nov 2007, 2053 posts, RR: 1 Reply 8, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
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No way Jeb Bush would get the nomination. I think no matter was side of the aisle you are on you don't want another Bush fiasco. I'm not familiar with his politics, but even if he was a polar opposite of his brother I don't think he has a shot. Hillary I think has had enough. Her and Bill will call it a day and do a couple 200,000 dollar speeches a year. Biden I honestly don' think could get the nomination either. At that point he'll be old and frankly after the VP debate he kind of creeps me out. The republicans need to find a nice candidate who is more towards the center of the spectrum. They really need to do some soul searching. Another election cycle talking down on contraception and gay rights and they're done.
Professor Foltz: You push down on that yoke, the houses get bigger, you pull back on the yoke, the houses get bigger.
IllinoisMan From United States of America, joined Feb 2012, 119 posts, RR: 0 Reply 10, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1322 times:
Jeb Bush? Is that the best they've got? The Republicans really are finished this time, and good riddance too...To be honest, the only one that I'd support is Chris Christie. But he's not a Democrat, he probably won't have much of a chance if he runs as an Independent, and I don't think the GOP will take him back after he endorsed Obama over Romney. Too bad, really... he's one of the few Republicans out there who seems to have a grasp on reality.
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5375 posts, RR: 47 Reply 11, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1322 times:
Quoting mke717spotter (Reply 9): Maybe, though none of them would probably be ready to run for president next time around. I doubt that someone completely unknown as of now is going to get their party's nomination.
Obama *cough cough*
Really, as Doc pointed out, he was basically a nobody. Maybe some senator from idk Montana will be the next president. I don't know who that is, but the current president was some random senator from Illinois.
Maybe it's because I'm young but a lot of the GOP candidates this go round weren't really big party leaders, a lot weren't around in 2008 either
ltbewr From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 12365 posts, RR: 12 Reply 12, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1322 times:
We need fresh faces for President and VP in both parties for 2016, not retreads, no relatives of former candidates or officeholders, no former VP's.
Perhaps over the next 2 years, we could see a new generation of moderate-progressives-centrists come out in both parties especially with the work on tax, spending, entitlements, national security, immigration, health care access, the environment, infrastructure and many other issues to be dealt with in major ways.
Both parties should consider for VP a Hispanic/Latino or a woman, work hard on developing a sound group of contenders for nomination, vet out thoroughly for any skeletons in their closets so no surprises too late. In 2016, the Republicans, if they adjust and find a decent canidate could very well take back the White House.
Ken777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 7525 posts, RR: 5 Reply 15, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 13): He's got a mark on his head after the compliments he gave to the President recently
He also has a major weight problem that would be a liability if he ran. Good or bad, appearance does make a difference and he has a challenge in that area. Get him down to a size 42 suit and he has a chance.
I actually like him, but believe that the Tea Party would keep him from getting the nomination.
Right now I'm thinking that it won't really matter if the GOP stays on the same platform that they pushed this election. Between "legal rape" and vaginal probes the GOP really got weird in their treatment of women. Toss in their priority of protecting the wealthy on the tax side, attacks on health care reform and their focus on the white voter - it gets pretty obvious that they went too far out in right field. Keep it up and the GOP might as well put mannequins up in 2016.
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5375 posts, RR: 47 Reply 16, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
Quoting doug_Or (Reply 14): I think that will be mostly forgotten in 6 months. I'm not familiar enough withhis policies and record to know how he'd fare in the primaries. Thoughts?
Yeah it will probably fly over, but you never know with the GOP these days (ugh I sound like such a leftist, don't I? That's how far the right seems to be going, making me sound left-leaning.) I've heard of people weighing in on him (pardon the pun) for president a while back and for VP recently, and weight did come up as an issue, as wrong as I think it is (don't really care how much he weighs as long as he's effective.)
Haven't really paid too much attention to him but he seems popular and very outspoken. I think you need a certain level of aggression to do well... Romney was pretty timid but his biggest boost occurred after going after the President in the first debate. JMO
Because she has the only job in DC even more demanding and frustrating than being President. She is quite tired. Working as SecState is even more difficult and frustrating than dealing with Congress.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 4): Besides, she'll be 69 in 2016. The Presidency is not a job for someone that old. Just ask Mrs. Reagan what it was like for her husband.
I agree - her age is a tremendous negative. Hillary is not a sympathetic woman to voters. She can seem harsh and aloof.
She had her one chance at the Presidency, and she could not find a way to beat or disqualify President Obama.
Now my personal opinion is that Bill and Hillary are more powerful within the Democratic Party than the President. That is part of the friction you see between them. And Hillary knows she would have done a better job in the White House than the President.
Though in four years we could see something of interest in Senator Chelsea Clinton. She would be too young for 2016, but might be setting herself up for a possible run in 2020 or 2024.
Quoting DocLightning (Reply 7): Mr. Ryan actually kept his cool. He's not going to quit the house. I may disagree with him on almost every issue, but he's not full of psychopathological egotism like Mrs. Palin.
Agree. His biggest problem is the perception that he's taking Grandma's Social Security away. If he could find a way to lead us through that morass in the next two or so years, he'd be in great standing. He also has to fill in his relative lack of experience in international issues in the same time frame. Those are huge asks, but it's a huge job he'd be aiming for.
flymia From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 6323 posts, RR: 6 Reply 20, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1322 times:
Jeb Bush besides for the Bush legacy would be a fantastic canidate for the country. He is bright, fairly moderate and would do well with the Hispanic vote. He speaks fluent Spanish and his wife is Mexican. If he would have won his first run at Florida govenour he would have been the one running in 2000.
I see Rubio as the very early favorite but who knows its too early. If the republicans want a chance to win they need to do two things. Get more of the Hispanic vote and take the social issues out of the primary and don't kill a primary candidate for being something as insane as pro choice to not against gay marriage. These are two things democrats want to part of the election because it helps them. Even though these are not real issues.
Gay Marriage is a state rights issue, abortion has already been decided. Why a candidate does not say this is beyond me but once we get those two issue out of presidential politics like they should be the Republicans can have much more success. Of course immigration would be what brings in the Hispanic vote and someone like Rubio or Jeb Bush would and do have moderate immigration plans.
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DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5375 posts, RR: 47 Reply 21, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
I think the GOP needs to find out what works when it comes to "moderates." You can have a "moderate" that is just a conservative that doesn't really back up the party's values (Mitt Romney seemed to do that) or you can have a "moderate" that is strong in his/her beliefs, the beliefs being more in the middle (like Jon Hunstman or even Gary Johnson.)
If that makes any sense, kind of hard to explain. Both are called moderates, but one is a moderate due to weakness in ideology, and the other is just has strong, moderate positions
BMI727 From United States of America, joined Feb 2009, 14409 posts, RR: 26 Reply 22, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
Quoting Ken777 (Reply 5): Bush III? Gimme a break. He would not distance himself from Bush II.
Democrats will still be playing the "Don't elect Bush (insert number here)" card in 2024.
Quoting AeroWesty (Reply 6): My guess on the GOP side is Jon Huntsman. He's a well-rounded conservative not influenced by the Tea Party, and will appeal to those on the right who feel this election was lost because it appeared too extreme.
Huntsman is good, but what they need is the non-white version of him.
Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 11): Really, as Doc pointed out, he was basically a nobody. Maybe some senator from idk Montana will be the next president. I don't know who that is, but the current president was some random senator from Illinois.
I don't agree with that. I'll admit to having followed Illinois politics, but Obama gave a speech at the 2004 convention and it seemed like kind of an open secret that he would run for president in 2008.
Why do Aerospace Engineering students have to turn things in on time?
DeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 5375 posts, RR: 47 Reply 23, posted (7 months 1 week 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 1324 times:
Quoting BMI727 (Reply 22): I don't agree with that. I'll admit to having followed Illinois politics, but Obama gave a speech at the 2004 convention and it seemed like kind of an open secret that he would run for president in 2008.