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Is Chavez In His Last Hours?  
User currently onlineAR385 From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 6602 posts, RR: 35
Posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 4166 times:
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Today:

1) The military in Venezuela has started being courted by different people who wish to be in their graces Among them:

Diosdado Cabello
Nicolás Maduro

Although Chavistas both, they are entrenched rivals.

2) The Vice President, Nicolás Maduro and appointed "succesor" by Chavez was denied permssion to see him today in Havana by the doctors. Apparently he is in total isolation.

3) Maduro, and Chavez´s daughter issued a joint statement saying that Chavez´s has suffered further complications as of yesterday.

4) Chavez´s Bolivarian Militia in Venezuela has started mobilizing.

5) The opposition yesterday demanded a "full account" on Chavez´s actual health conditions.

So. Is the guy in his deathbed? For all intents and purposes Chavez appointed Maduro as his succesor but this is not constitutional. If Chavez is not ready by January the 10th to re-assume the Presidency (and he won´t be) there is going to be trouble as the Constitution says new elections have to be called in 30 days.

I thought we were done with these type of crisis in Latin America.

53 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8478 posts, RR: 9
Reply 1, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 4125 times:

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
Is the guy in his deathbed?

With any luck he is.


User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3188 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 4088 times:

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
So. Is the guy in his deathbed? For all intents and purposes Chavez appointed Maduro as his succesor but this is not constitutional. If Chavez is not ready by January the 10th to re-assume the Presidency (and he won´t be) there is going to be trouble as the Constitution says new elections have to be called in 30 days.

Not knowing about the constitutional law in Venezuela, but guessing here.
If Chavez can at least mutter an " I do" or whatever the correct answer is to accept his term on January the 10th no matter his location or condition then one would assume that at his passing then the presidency would pass to the VP or whatever the constitution would allow.

Otherwise, if he does pass before January 10th, then it looks like another election within 30 days.
The best I can recall is that Chavez has pretty much taken control of the media and one would guess that would be the main contributing factor to who wins the election which would seem to favor Maduro since he would automatically be president until January 10 assuming the presidency transfers to the VP.


Okie


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6933 posts, RR: 12
Reply 3, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 3914 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 2):
If Chavez can at least mutter an " I do" or whatever the correct answer is to accept his term on January the 10th no matter his location or condition then one would assume that at his passing then the presidency would pass to the VP or whatever the constitution would allow.

Unlike in the US the vice president is not elected along with the president but appointed, so even if the constitution gives the VP presidential powers, his/her legitimacy would be very low, there is no way it can work without an election.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineAvianca From Venezuela, joined Jan 2005, 5934 posts, RR: 40
Reply 4, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 19 hours ago) and read 3781 times:

I am right know in home leave and not in Venezuela but what I heard from friends, Twitter Account etc. raw times are ahead.

Whatever the constitution is saying I am pritty sure we won't see elections within 30 days after the 10.01.2013.
It's more likely to see a kind of auto coup.

Regards
Avianca



Colombia es el Mundo Y el Mundo es Colombia
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 5, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 17 hours ago) and read 3756 times:

It will be a long and painful process.

Chavez's regime is/was almost entirely based on the individual's charisma.
With him gone, I doubt anybody could take his throne and maintain the same kind of authoritative government. It's not like Cuba or North Korea where a tight regime has reigned over several generations of the population.

However, many will try, and likely fail. The power will fade and I'm guessing will lead to ever increased corruption and popular uprisings. I'm thinking the military might eventually retake the power, forcefully.

In any case, I hope Venezuelans manage to obtain a proper, democratic government once again.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineokie From United States of America, joined Jul 2003, 3188 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3688 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 5):
However, many will try, and likely fail. The power will fade and I'm guessing will lead to ever increased corruption and popular uprisings. I'm thinking the military might eventually retake the power, forcefully

I am not sure how you would get more corruption than exists now.
Heavens the massive amount of Oil income to the country seems to only get disbursed among a few Elitist closely tied to Chavez, at least from my perspective. Sure does not seem to be any of that income going for infrastructure or assistance to the citizens of Venezuela.

Okie


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 7, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 3680 times:

Quoting okie (Reply 6):
I am not sure how you would get more corruption than exists now.

Well, that's true. Same goes for the safety level.

Drug gangs are apparently pretty much running unchecked and murder rate is at an all time high.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently onlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29835 posts, RR: 58
Reply 8, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 3657 times:

Well it would be hard not to see that as a positive for that besieged country.

Because all his replacements seem to lack his charm over time his changes may start to reverse themselves.



OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 9, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 3601 times:

Quoting AR385 (Thread starter):
I thought we were done with these type of crisis in Latin America.

As long as Latin American countries have such extreme constitutional laws, negative. Here in Europe, office holders were represented by deputies for many months (among them French president Jacques Chirac, and members of the Swiss Federal government, and in the 1950ies/60ies WestGerman Federal Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. And Dwight D Eisenhower for long times handed actual presidential powers to Vice President Richard Nixon.

The other side of the coin is the old saying "Those proclaimed dead live longer"


User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 3578 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 9):
As long as Latin American countries have such extreme constitutional laws,

This hasn't much to do with constitutions. As a matter of fact, wannabe dictators are the ones who usually get democratically elected on empty promises to the poor and once they're in power, start bending the rules their way by changing the constitution...

Poverty and lack of education are the real culprits.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineEddieDude From Mexico, joined Nov 2003, 7633 posts, RR: 42
Reply 11, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 2 days 7 hours ago) and read 3531 times:

Anti-Chavez commentators are reporting that Chavez is on life support with very weak vital signs. Reports are that four feet of intestine were removed, and that cancer metastasized to the spine and spinal cord. Take this with a grain of salt.


Next flights: MEX-GRU (AM 77E), GRU-GIG (JJ A320), SDU-CGH (G3 73H), GRU-MEX (JJ A332).
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 12, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 3435 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 10):
once they're in power, start bending the rules their way by changing the constitution...

Poverty and lack of education are the real culprits.

-
Alright, but Chavez ought to be allowed to stay on as president also if being under medical treatment

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
Reports are that four feet of intestine were removed, and that cancer metastasized to the spine and spinal cord. Take this with a grain of salt.

and this sounds very bad. If you ever have had cancer you of course know that the sword of Damocles (or of Dr Guillotin) is hanging over you always. And yes, if cancer gets to the spine, you can get into chemo-therapy, which in turn will destroy so much of your body ............................ oh well ...........


User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9741 posts, RR: 31
Reply 13, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 3414 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 9):
and in the 1950ies/60ies WestGerman Federal Chancellor Konrad Adenauer. A

In Germany, the Vice Chancellor will not become Chancellor automatically. Quite contrary, in a coalition government, the VC is usually from the smaller coalition partners party. The Bundestag will vote a new chancellor into office and the VC remains what he is, the VC.

But as what said, in a de facto dictaorshipm things work a bit different.



Es saugt und blaest der Heinzelmann wo Mutti sonst nur blasen kann. Frueher war mehr Lametta.
User currently offline757gb From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 678 posts, RR: 1
Reply 14, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 3377 times:

Quoting EddieDude (Reply 11):
Anti-Chavez commentators are reporting that Chavez is on life support with very weak vital signs.

The source for this report (true or fake, it appears very detailed) is from the Spanish newspaper ABC (article in Spanish):

http://www.abc.es/internacional/2013...ez-coma-inducido-201301011903.html

That information is being published all over, but the source is the same. OTOH, trying to get reliable information from Cuba or Venezuela's government is a huge challenge to say the least, so the lack of sources is not surprising.

Whether we choose to believe or discard the information, the subdued tone of the officials and the information trickling in are consistent with a very bad prognosis. If he were in any better shape the officials would be furiously denying the reports, especially considering all of the doubts now arising WRT January 10th.



God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3845 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 3323 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 12):
Alright, but Chavez ought to be allowed to stay on as president also if being under medical treatment

He is.

I don't know what the constitution of Venezuela says about a President dying during office.
In any case, I'm guessing the political landscape is going to become quite electric...



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 16, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3279 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 13):
in a coalition government,

I well remember late 1963 when Vice President Johnson was sworn in as President of the USA on the flight from Dallas to Washington. And I up to now did NOT regard the USA as a dictatorship !


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6933 posts, RR: 12
Reply 17, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 3271 times:

Well the US VP is on the ticket with the president, and if he is replaced he has to be confirmed, so it's a little different from Venezuela. But to be honest I find the thing quite strange nonetheless, and am quite happy with the French system, if the president dies or resigns, new elections are called, with the president of the senate assuming the powers during the short interim.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 18, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 3255 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 17):
Well the US VP is on the ticket with the president, and if he is replaced he has to be confirmed, so it's a little different from Venezuela. But to be honest I find the thing quite strange nonetheless, and am quite happy with the French system, if the president dies or resigns, new elections are called, with the president of the senate assuming the powers during the short interim.

This is true but
> LBJ was already President of the USA upon landing in Washington-DC and so could expect the congress to "confirm"
> French presidents when being ill were NOT replaced but had the power simply been taken over by the Prime Minister. Prime Minister Dominique de Villepin for many months too over functions of Jacques Chirac when Mr Chirac was ill. In most countries on earth, democracies and dictatorships alike, state leaders are NOT replaced just because they are ill.
> I am totally opposed to the idea that a head of state is automatically replaced just because he is in bad health. Alright, if this is the constitution of Venezuela so be it


User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9741 posts, RR: 31
Reply 19, posted (1 year 11 months 3 weeks 20 hours ago) and read 3181 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 16):
I well remember late 1963 when Vice President Johnson was sworn in as President of the USA on the flight from Dallas to Washington. And I up to now did NOT regard the USA as a dictatorship !

Where did I say that the USA is a dictactorship? Every child in the US knows that the VP is one heart beat away from being president, the constitution mandats an automatic transfer and the supreme court judge will take the formalities as soon as he is available to do that. . If something happens to the Chancellor in Germany, the vice chanvellor takes over for an interims period until a new chancellor is voted by the members of parliament. That won't be the VC since we usually have coalition governments here and the VC is from the smaller party. The chancellor is always from the leading party.



Es saugt und blaest der Heinzelmann wo Mutti sonst nur blasen kann. Frueher war mehr Lametta.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 20, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 3056 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 19):
Where did I say that the USA is a dictactorship?

NOWHERE of course, and neither did I say that you said so. What I mean is that the automatic succession of a political leader does not indicate democracy of dictatorship. In Switzerland, each Minister has a deputy among the other 6 ministers who has to take over in case one of them passes away. Sure, the congress, which means both chambers of parliament will convene and elect a new Minister, but until the new Minister takes office, the deputy will have two ministries. So that the details differ. And in many rather dictatorial countries, in case of the death of the ruler, a complicated procedure often gets applied.

I however dislike the idea that any acting state president is to be dropped just because of some illness. Back to Switzerland, there have been cases when an officeholder was ill for many months and that the deputy simply lead the other ministry "kommissarisch".


User currently offline757gb From Uruguay, joined Feb 2009, 678 posts, RR: 1
Reply 21, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 3046 times:

I've been following twitter for a few days now about Chavez. It seems like the only place where some information can be found. I find it disgraceful that the Venezuelan people are kept in the dark, not only by being cryptic but also through outright lies. Now they acknowledge that he's been on a respirator. I wonder how the vice president managed to talk to him then? I don't know what their idea is as far as January 10th. I think there is real cause for concern...


God is The Alpha and The Omega. We come from God. We go towards God. What an Amazing Journey...
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 22, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 6 days 11 hours ago) and read 3025 times:

Quoting 757gb (Reply 21):
the only place where some information can be found. I find it disgraceful that the Venezuelan people are kept in the dark,

Political officeholders and their "surrounding" everywhere in such cases try to keep the actual state of the topman out of the public. A very rare exception was King Hussein bin Talal, who in detail spoke about his health in public. Everybody knew about his impending death when he was returned to Amman in a record speed flight on board of the Royal Jordanian TriStar. He arrived in Amman just in time to regain full consciousness and to sign the succession docs in favour of his son, Abdullah II . But again, this is an exception. Usual business is that people in charge try to hide whatever can be hidden.


User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10930 posts, RR: 37
Reply 23, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2934 times:

Has Venezuelan President Hugo Chavez died?

Coming from several different sources:

ABC Report: Hugo Chavez DEAD ??
http://theconservativetreehouse.com/...01/01/abc-report-hugo-chavez-dead/

"@Martins_Fati : Cuba's FM M. Bruno Rodríguez Parrilla confirmed me by phone the death of President Chávez."???
https://twitter.com/mattgutmanABC/statuses/286285240752803840

Image of Chavez in casket
http://www.ryot.org/wp-content/uploa...13-01-05-at-3.21.10-PM-630x418.png

Leaked video: Hugo chaves muere ( hugo chavez dead ) died 4 january 2013
(some say the casket picture is fake)
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=iYNck0G4Xys

I see nothing on RT and nothing on PressTV (those are two channels who would be friendly to Chavez) and nothing on the BBC World news site.

Maybe it's all hyped up and not true.
I suppose we will find out soon if he really died.

   Wow!       



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineSuperCaravelle From Netherlands, joined Jan 2012, 259 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 11 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2924 times:

As far as I'm aware, there will be new elections automatically (according to constitution) should Chavez pass away during the first four years of his five year presidency.

25 AR385 : I don´t think he is deas yet. But there have been certain movements within Venezuela by the government over the past 48 hrs. that are telling.
26 okie : I just wonder if that is speculation that he will not be able to take his oath of office on Thursday the 10th or if he has passed. I speculated that
27 AR385 : As far as I know, if he can´t take the oath, on the 10th, the President of the National Assembly (Congress) will take the office and has to call for
28 okie : Thanks AR385 for the claification. Appears to be plenty of jockeying for position in case of Chavez passes. So I am assuming that Cabello could run f
29 AR385 : Well, Chavez made it clear when he left to Cuba that he wanted Maduro to be "his successor" wether he detailed the means, I´m not sure. As for Madur
30 757gb : I understand what you're saying but even in South America it seems like things have been more open... cases such as Lula in Brazil, Lugo in Paraguay
31 ME AVN FAN : Many officeholders for weeks or months are incapacitated.
32 757gb : Right. But there seems to be an intention of keeping under wraps the fact that Chavez's state as incapacitated is a terminal, irreversible state. The
33 FlyDeltaJets : Or just to keep the day to day activities in Venezuela going without the turmoil caused by the minute to minute update if Chavez health. The same thi
34 757gb : I have a really hard time imagining this dynamic taking place in this way in the US. We just saw the medical reports on Hillary Clinton's health with
35 ME AVN FAN : - How sure are you with this information ? - They either have to "push him up" to a position in which he can attend the ceremony in a wheelchair, and
36 757gb : Looks like a duck, quacks like a duck, walks like a duck and leaves duck s**t all over. I am not "sure", but it probably is a duck. Of course the gov
37 AR385 : They are going ahead with a "virtual" swearing in ceremony in Congress. What does this mean, I´m not sure. President Mujica from Uruguay is attendinn
38 757gb : Couldn't agree more...
39 ME AVN FAN : - they do not have to prove anything or show any evidence. - Far fetched it may be, but done it is all the time. Saddam al-Takriti had THREE doubles
40 Post contains links 757gb : They'll have to do something. By now they have acknowledged that he won't be there on the 10th. Information is in Spanish only at this time, I'll get
41 Post contains links 757gb : Here it is: http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...jan-10-for-new-venezuela-term.html
42 ME AVN FAN : A lung infection on top of a just survived cancer surgery can well turn to be fatal, no doubt. The end for him can indeed arrive at any time. But the
43 757gb : At this point I'm starting to sound like I want him to die. I feel no admiration for him, but what he has been through is truly horrible and I don't w
44 Post contains images ME AVN FAN : I earlier on regarded him just as another "want-to-be-dictator" and a demagogue. He got my sympathy, or rather solidarity when he got cancer. I did h
45 757gb : Thank you for sharing your experience. I am so glad that you were able to survive it and were cured. I guess everyone knows someone close by who has
46 ME AVN FAN : whatever "infections" were involved, the basic problem is that you PRE surgery have between 1000 and 3000 cancer cells getting "bombed" into you body
47 757gb : I can't begin to imagine how that must have felt considering how much you went through. Yeah no trouble at all guessing the collection boxes! I suppo
48 PanHAM : Donde es la problema? They could make him eternal president, like Kim Il Sung in North Korea and these nasty ceremonies could be replaced by wonderful
49 AR385 : ¿Dónde está el problema? The problem is that the Venezuelan people are not deserving of this. I know you are being sarcastic, but Venezuela is not
50 Post contains images Avianca : First Problem is that we do not have even a big Stadium in Caracas . Thats why the national Football Team never plays in CCS Wow I am really foresee
51 PanHAM : My Spanish is indeed a bit rusty and I realised the "está" when I hit the send button. I should have taken the offer to go to CCS instead of HAM but
52 757gb : There are a lot of people here in Uruguay questioning the fact that our president is there. The governments here suspended Paraguay from Mercosur afte
53 ME AVN FAN : Well, I then gradually learnt to see the beauty of nice flowers, the beauty of nice trees, the beauty of nice bridges etc ! And developed a far more
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