Sponsor Message:
Non Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Britain And The EU - What Does The Future Hold?  
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12466 posts, RR: 37
Posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5239 times:

The last few months have seen the "jungle drums" beat louder on the whole issue of Britain's place in the EU. There is a lot of public antipathy towards the EU in the UK, with a significant (if not necessarily a vast) majority seeing the EU as interfering and meddling. Judgements of the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) are regularly seized upon by the right wing press as evidence of this - for example the ruling in favour of giving prisoners voting rights (supported by the court, but strongly opposed by public opinion and the govt itself).

The PM, David Cameron, is due to give a speech in Amsterdam in the near future, which is expected to spell out the government's position (although is more likely to see more prevarication and a very woolly, obfuscating approach, such as that seen with LHR). The likelihood is that there growing demand for an "in or out" referendum will be denied - for now; the govt wants to renegotiate Britain's position and repatriate powers and have a referendum on that basis.

The big issue is that although Britain had a vote on joining the EU in 1972, it has not had one since (while Ireland, due to its constitution, has voted on every new treaty, sometimes twice - when we didn't provide the right answer first time out!); the result is that the EU has changed significantly since then, so opponents of the EU see that what it has become is a lot different to what they were originally asked to vote on; successive PMs have denied a vote, but now - with the aforementioned jungle drums beating a lot louder, it remains to be seen what will happen.

What do our UK members think? Would you like a vote? If you were PM, would you grant a referendum? How do you see things panning out?

136 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7907 posts, RR: 51
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5233 times:

Well, I don't pretend to know a bunch about EU politics, but I try. Despite the troubles the UK has with the EU, I'm sure they still benefit greatly from a lot from the EU. And the EU undoubtedly benefits from having the UK in.

That being said, the direction the EU is going and the direction the UK is going seems to be different, and there is no problem in that. I see them get demonized for that, which is unfair IMO because every culture has different needs. Maybe the UK won't be the most involved player, but barring some new EU 'law' that forces full participation or no membership, I see the UK associating with the EU in many regards, but doing their own thing on others.

Then again, I could be completely clueless on all this...



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5221 times:

If they want, if there is a majority in the UK, let them leave.

But when they want to come back, because they realize, that leaving the EU will destroy the rest of their economy and political influence in the world, they shouldn't receive the special benefits again, which no other EU member has today, other than the UK.  

And beside of their special benefits (reduced membership contributions et.al.) there are the following general benefits of a membership they enjoy:

http://www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=15296
http://www.euromove.org.uk/index.php?id=17942

[Edited 2013-01-15 13:10:10]

[Edited 2013-01-15 13:15:11]


Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 3, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5212 times:

Well I don't know what will happen as frankly I don't understand the British mind (and am not living there, surrounded by media funded by one Australian guy), but attempts to "get a better deal" from Cameron will not go anywhere, that's for sure.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently onlineDoona From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 3770 posts, RR: 13
Reply 4, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5197 times:

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
Judgements of the ECHR (European Court of Human Rights) are regularly seized upon by the right wing press as evidence of this - for example the ruling in favour of giving prisoners voting rights (supported by the court, but strongly opposed by public opinion and the govt itself).

The European Court of Human Rights has nothing to do with the European Union. It follows the European Convention on Human Rights, and was established by the Council of Europe, which nowadays consists of 47 member states, compared to the EU's 27. The Council of Europe does, however, utilize the EU flag and anthem, but is an entirely separate organization.

The European Convention on Human Rights is in a way superior to the laws of a member state and convention signatory. An individual can appeal to the ECHR if one has exhausted all national avenues of appeal, and feels that one's rights, as laid down in the convention, have been violated by the state.

The Court determines if the articles of the Convention are being followed, articles that the member states/signatories (and by extension, their respective governments and the people) have themselves already agreed to.

Cheers
Mats



Sure, we're concerned for our lives. Just not as concerned as saving 9 bucks on a roundtrip to Ft. Myers.
User currently offlineSuperCaravelle From Netherlands, joined Jan 2012, 237 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (1 year 8 months 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 5195 times:

As soon as economic benefits do not outweigh the negatives, Britain should leave. I would advice them to do as Switzerland: apply for Schengen membership, but don't bother with the EU. At this moment, I simply do not see any benefits (for Britain, the Netherlands or Greece alike). Many of EU rules are fiddling with national rules and often cost money due to unnecessary demands. To give a small example: a recently opened railway stretch in the Netherlands features a fully functional ERMTS safety system, as well as our national safety system. We don't use ERMTS and on that stretch we will not, if ever, use it for at least another 10-15 years. Still, EU decided we should install it nonetheless. This is just a small example of the idiocy that is the bureaucracy of Brussels, with probably a lot of business interest involved as well.

I simply don't see how economic benefits (many of which will not disappear without EU membership) outweigh the non-transparency and bureaucracy of a non-elected government (only a parliament without actual influence is elected).


User currently offlineoffloaded From United Kingdom, joined Apr 2009, 885 posts, RR: 0
Reply 6, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 18 hours ago) and read 5088 times:

As a long time resident (and business owner) of Portugal you'd think I'd be pro-EU, but I vote OUT in a UK referendum any day of the week.

What my parents voted to join was a free trade area, the European Economic Community. There were 6 countries in it at the time. With Britain, Ireland and Denmark joining in 1973 that made 9. They didn't vote to have EU law take supremacy over English law, they didn't vote for a myriad of directives and rules that leaves no stone unturned in some vain attempt to harmonise everything. In short, they, unlike the Germans for example, were kept well in the dark as to what was on the horizon.

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 5):
Still, EU decided we should install it nonetheless. This is just a small example of the idiocy that is the bureaucracy of Brussels, with probably a lot of business interest involved as well.

Big business is pro-EU, to small businesses like mine it is generally more costly and bureaucratic. Last year for example we binned perfectly good SAÍDA (EXIT) and other safety signs as they were not EU approved pictorials, and replaced them with EU approved ones.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 2):
reduced membership contributions et.al

Due to the Common Agricultural Policy. £50million a day is our current rate.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 2):
that leaving the EU will destroy the rest of their economy and political influence in the world

Actually, I'd bet the exact opposite.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 2):
there are the following general benefits of a membership they enjoy:

My favourite benefit is yellow ambulances. Before the EU decided ambulances had to be yellow, I used to often confuse white vehicles with red stripes, blue lights and loud sirens as ice cream vans. Now wherever I go in the EU, I can always spot an ambulance. It's been such a relief.



To no one will we sell, or deny, or delay, right or justice - Magna Carta, 1215
User currently offlinena From Germany, joined Dec 1999, 10733 posts, RR: 9
Reply 7, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5084 times:

I do think that the UK wouldnt be better off if they leave the EU. I recently saw a TV program about the pro´s and con´s and there was quite a clear verdict.

User currently offlineCaptCufflinks From UK - England, joined Dec 2012, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 8, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5076 times:

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 2):
they realize, that leaving the EU will destroy the rest of their economy

Rubbish, frankly.

The British economy has for a long time been going digital, and towards a service based economy. Leaving the EU will probably expedite the adoption of the revenue streams to their full value.

Quoting offloaded (Reply 6):
My favourite benefit is yellow ambulances. Before the EU decided ambulances had to be yellow, I used to often confuse white vehicles with red stripes, blue lights and loud sirens as ice cream vans. Now wherever I go in the EU, I can always spot an ambulance. It's been such a relief.

  

Don't forget that we now have to disrupt everyone on the Internet by placing alerts on our websites telling them stuff about cookies that no one needs to know, wants to know or even understands by large.

I'm so thankful that our contributions meant most websites I visit, I now have to confirm what was already tacitly agreed before.

It really was a great use of money. Thank goodness there was nothing else the money could have been used on.

...oh, wait!


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26977 posts, RR: 57
Reply 9, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 17 hours ago) and read 5075 times:

The UK will not leave but there may be some renegotiations on the powers that are brought back home.

User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 10, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5059 times:

I'm no longer young - so I can claim to have been 'in at the start' of the European Union thing. What's more, as an economist and a chartered surveyor, my job was mainly organising and building things - particularly factories.

The original 'European Common Market' worked fine, in my view. Useful trade increased Europe-wide, I helped set up Dutch and German factories in Britain and British and American ones all over Europe. Which increased prosperity and cooperation all round, and did no harm at all to anyone.

But then came the Euro. That, to my mind, was the 'step too far.' A free trade area was fine, and worked well; but, given the enormous gap between the industrial efficiency of places like Germany, compared with that of places like Greece, the eventual outcome could be predicted as soon as the 'common currency' process began. In the words of the old song, "The rich get rich and the poor get poorer......."

Later on, family considerations plus a good job offer caused me to move to Australia; and I've never regretted the move. But I've always retained fond memories of the good people I met, from all over Europe, in the early 'Common Market' days, and the things we achieved through friendly and professional co-operation.

I try to keep my posts short - so I'll only say one more thing. In my opinion, the basic 'wrong turning' that the EU took was the introduction of the Euro. Thanks to the economic strength of several leading European countries, particularly Germany, it rapidly became one of the 'hardest' currencies in the world. And a 'hard currency' is the last thing that under-developed countries like Greece and Portugal can live with..........

So, if I was still advising European organisations on 'the next step' in terms of European cooperation, my recommendation would be, "There's no future in a currency union unless you also have a 100 per cent political union. The latter just isn't going to happen. So take steps to phase out the Euro and encourage all but the very strongest countries in economic terms to re-adopt their own currencies, which they can devalue or revalue as needed to ensure that their economies do not collapse."

[Edited 2013-01-16 06:04:34]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinesebolino From France, joined May 2001, 3681 posts, RR: 4
Reply 11, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 16 hours ago) and read 5017 times:

Quoting offloaded (Reply 6):
My favourite benefit is yellow ambulances. Before the EU decided ambulances had to be yellow, I used to often confuse white vehicles with red stripes, blue lights and loud sirens as ice cream vans. Now wherever I go in the EU, I can always spot an ambulance. It's been such a relief.

Ambulances are still white in France (red when it's the fire brigade's rescue vehicles).


User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 12, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 4988 times:

My bet: A whole lot of talk on 'getting a better deal from Europe' is going to end nowhere as Germany has already made it clear there are not going to be accepting any special cases any longer, after which Cameron will find himself cornered and with only one escape: a referendum.
Given the British media are completely out of their mind on Europe, that will mean Cameron will have to come to Brussels to discuss the UK exit and future access to the common market, and the conditions for that are already set: full acceptation of all EU legislation, without any more representation in it, simple as that.
Great outcome isn't it?
Out are the whiners and they'll have to do as decided anyway, or they shoot themselves in the foot.
Lets get the referendum and vote like Rupert wants you to, guys!

[Edited 2013-01-16 09:02:40]

User currently offlineEuroWings From UK - England, joined Sep 2011, 298 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4974 times:

Frankly, in Britain there is a lot of hysteria about the EU in general, which is strongly fueled by the right-wing press. A lot of people with anti-EU views will simply not accept that Britain does gain something from EU membership, even to the slightest extent. They only see the headlines in the Daily Mail or the Daily Express, which have undertones of trying to blame the EU for just about all the ills in society.

With the Euro crisis, these opinions have become increasingly widespread. The BBC is frequently accused of being biased to the left because it doesn't dedicate time to criticisms of the EU.

I'm more neutral to the issue, there are certainly advantages and disadvantages, but for the now I see the advantages outweighing the drawbacks

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 12):
and the conditions for that are already set: full acceptation of all EU legislation, without any more representation in it, simple as that.
Great outcome isn't it?

Well, quite. This is what so many don't consider.


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 14, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 4973 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

The problem is that an awful lot, in fact I would say 90% or so, of the British public's animosity towards the EU has arisen from the fact that we got absolutely hammered with immigration from the new accession states when the Union virtually doubled in size overnight. I realise that most countries in western Europe had significant influx, but it is estimated that a million came to the UK from Poland alone, before we even start counting the others. We have seen large numbers of nasty cases of serious criminality trumpeted in the press (genuine cases of course, but hard to say whether there were proportionately more from the nationalities concerned than from the local population), whipping up yet more fervour against the already very obvious mass migration. And, of course very real criminal problems such as Romanian organised cash machine fraud. Official sources (Police) have publically stated that over 90% of cash machine crime in the UK is perpetrated by Romanians, and of course we are now on the cusp of Romania and Bulgaria achieving full rights to work and live freely in the UK without restriction (although in reality that is practically the case now, with a poorly-enforced registration requirement), which is being focused on in various media at the moment.

Of course, there has always been the issue of whether the UK is fully-committed to Europe or not, with the Euro not being adopted and the treaty of Schengen not signed, but in many other respects the UK has practically demonstrated full commitment. In reality, there is a reasonable amount of diversity in integration levels across Europe, with Ireland not in Schengen but in the Euro, and other countries like Sweden also keeping their currency like the UK did. Then, there is Norway which is not in the EU at all, but in the EEA and Schengen.

THE POINT of all this, is that I think the public are foolishly being guiled into believing that a vote to leave the EU would suddenly given them the right to boot out large groups that they consider to be undesirable for various reasons. In fact, it is not even remotely likely that the UK would leave the EU without at least remaining in the EEA, and therefore retaining all migratory issues relevant to the EEA regulations, or more extremely and even less likely having some kind of individually-negotiated agreement (a la Suisse) which would no doubt still retain free movement obligations.

The end result of this nonsensical idiocy that is playing out in the media is that the debate the public largely think they are having is in fact not the debate that actually exists. It's a farce, and I hope we stay in.

Having said that, I can't pretend that I myself don't think that EU expansion has all been too much and too quick. There is still far too much of an east-west disparity, though of course in some cases this is starting to even itself out. One or two at a time, with economies more rapidly brought up to speed would have been preferable I think, rather than spreading more gradual support far more thinly. This is what worked in the past.

Anyway, here's hoping that the public realise what they would actually be voting on and do the right thing.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 15, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4959 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 12):
Brussels to discuss the UK exit and future access to the common market, and the conditions for that are already set: full acceptation of all EU legislation, without any more representation in it, simple as that.

Well, they would have more control about their laws not pertaining to the common market, but of course all those regulations they complain about (size of fruits and vegetables, etc.) would definitely stay.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 14):
I realize that most countries in western Europe had significant influx, but it is estimated that a million came to the UK from Poland alone

This is an intended consequence of the Bolkestein Directive, a directive that is in total "anglo-saxon freedom" spirit and which was pushed by the UK above all else, against many including France.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 16, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4948 times:

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
If you were PM, would you grant a referendum?

The key to the entire problem, there is some talk that he will grant the referendum in 5 or 6 years time or never. Granting the referendum should be a decision made by the legislature versus the individual and his political party.

If a referendum were held today or within the next 6 months my money would be on the UK population voting to stay in the EU, they have long since "sidelined" the Commonwealth so they already made that decision to be closer to Europe.

However, if the referendum if granted is put off for the next 3 or 4 years, the vote when it comes will not be about the EU and the UK's place in it but on the handling of the entire process by the political elite, which would be the tragedy.


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 17, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4944 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Aesma (Reply 15):

This is an intended consequence of the Bolkestein Directive, a directive that is in total "anglo-saxon freedom" spirit and which was pushed by the UK above all else, against many including France.

Indeed it was pushed by the UK Labour government of the day, much against the greater wishes of the man on the street, and the party have now admitted that they got it all wrong on immigration.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineCaptCufflinks From UK - England, joined Dec 2012, 96 posts, RR: 0
Reply 18, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 4936 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 16):
so they already made that decision to be closer to Europe.

If by "they" you mean the British, then no - no decision was ever made about our status within Europe.

To my knowledge, the public have never been consulted about the whole thing - which might suggest why we're all so keen to finally have a referendum.


User currently offlineDNDTUF From France, joined Feb 2012, 28 posts, RR: 0
Reply 19, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 4920 times:

As a Scot who has been living and working in France for the past 4 years, I sincerely hope that the UK doesn’t pull out of the EU. I think many of the consequences of such a separation have not been fully disclosed by the Eurosceptics. Day after day in “news” papers such as the Sun and Daily Mail and the Telegraph to a lesser extent, there are numerous negative stories about the EU and how it is destroying Britain. For people who only get their news from such sources, it’s no wonder that a large proportion of the population has been hoodwinked into believing that the EU is eroding British sovereignty. If you were to believe the Daily Mail, you’d think that Britain was awash with criminals who have come from mainland Europe to cause havoc and abuse the benefit system!

If Britain were to leave the EU, the country would still be bound by the same trade rules and directives but would have no influence whatsoever in the creation of such rules. I reckon that would be a bigger loss of sovereignty than if the UK remained part of the Union and had a say in the legislation. The renegotiation of trade links and export and import links would be a mammoth task to undertake and during the process, confidence in the British economy would take a battering! Being part of the EU is a major advantage for companies who decide to locate to the UK and we would be in danger of losing them if trading with Europe was made any harder.

I agree that certain aspects of the European Union should be scaled back across the continent as a whole. I think that it should primarily be a union based on the free circulation of goods, services and citizens. The idea of the Euro was made with good intentions, but I struggle to understand how anyone thought it possible to harmonise monetary policy amongst such a varied continent!

Basically, if Britain feels it needs a “better” deal from the EU, the only way to achieve this would be to remain at the heart of it and be a part of reforming it into an organisation ready for the future. I personally think that a lot of Euroscepticism in the UK comes from the same people who mourn the loss of the empire and who have a hard time accepting that Britannia no longer rules the waves! Who knows, maybe after 2014, if Scotland, which has always been significantly more pro-EU than its southern neighbour, breaks away from the UK, we might have a split in EU membership between the British Isles!

Just my 2 centimes!  
DNDTUF


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 20, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 11 hours ago) and read 4918 times:

Quoting CaptCufflinks (Reply 18):
If by "they" you mean the British, then no - no decision was ever made about our status within Europe.

I agree no vote was held, I am looking at it from the trade perspective, the reality is that trade with the Commonwealth is shades of what it used to be, trade with the EU on the other hand has continued to grow. Trade is one of the "talking ponits" on this issue, the other items such as "clawing back" powers is another story, obviously those were given over / away.

In the whole EU debate especially when there is talk about "taking back" authority granted to the EU I get lost when some state a referendum is needed, if the authority ceeded to the EU was not done via public vote, why is one needed now?
If a public vote which one are we talking about, the initial Common Market or the new EU?


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 21, posted (1 year 8 months 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 4879 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting DNDTUF (Reply 19):
If you were to believe the Daily Mail, you’d think that Britain was awash with criminals who have come from mainland Europe to cause havoc and abuse the benefit system!

While it's true that the situation is not as serious as some papers would have you believe, there is little doubt that the migration we have undergone since EU enlargement happened has aided SOME serious criminality. There are undoubtedly very serious questions that need to be asked about why we should put up with extended families from some corners of Europe moving over to the UK with no money, no plan, no skills, children who need schooling immediately, elderly relatives who need free healthcare immediately, and in general have little or nothing to offer to our country except being a huge drain on resources of all kinds. It may sound harsh, but in too many cases this is what we face. This, in contrast to a young Polish couple, for example, who move over with skills to offer and a plan to work and generally be as productive as possible. In theory controls exist, but in reality border control is utterly powerless to turn back arrivals who clearly have nothing to offer but everything to take, as EEA regulations insist they be allowed three months from any arrival regardless of their means. This is not right, certainly not at a time when economies are suffering, and unfortunately these legitimate questions provide massive fodder to the red-top press to exploit in conjunction with the inherent prejudice towards Europe that they garner from a significant portion of their foolish readership.

I'm sorry if this is uncomfortable reading for some, but this is the reality caused from the overnight doubling in size of the EU - which was a very foolish move, in UK terms exploited purely for exceptionally short-term gain and at the serious expense of the country's wellbeing - evidenced not least by the fact that we now find ourselves where we do as a result; facing an ill-informed and very unfortunate prospect of a fallacious referendum on EU membership. This in a nutshell was the true hallmark of the Labour government who promoted this course of action - anything for immediate economic gain, regardless of the long-term potential for harm to both the UK and the essential institution of the European Union. For shame.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineOzGlobal From France, joined Nov 2004, 2721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 22, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 13 hours ago) and read 4796 times:

Sigh no more, ladies, sigh nor more;
Men were deceivers ever;
One foot in sea and one on shore,
To one thing constant never;
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blithe and bonny;
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into. Hey nonny, nonny.

Sing no more ditties, sing no mo,
Or dumps so dull and heavy;
The fraud of men was ever so,
Since summer first was leavy.
Then sigh not so,
But let them go,
And be you blithe and bonny,
Converting all your sounds of woe
Into. Hey, nonny, nonny.


- William Shakespeare



When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 4778 times:

In the past I have been staunchly eurosceptic. However, my opinion nowadays is that it would in fact be costly to leave the EU and leave our self unprotected against the French (and Germans in some regards) who will continue to attempt to reduce our and our capitals influence, using their 'standing' in the EU, regardless. Also, I cannot see how leaving would be in any way positive for our economy.

However, I believe that a referendum at this point would see us packing our bags. In my opinion that is mainly due to the ECHR. The general public lump the hideous inadequacies and corruption of the ECHR with the EU and boy does the ECHR get some (rightly deserved) negative press in the UK.

So if anything, thumbs up to the EU and kick the ECHR and everything that comes with it to the curb.

My opinions of course.


User currently onlineDoona From Sweden, joined Feb 2005, 3770 posts, RR: 13
Reply 24, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4744 times:

Quoting U2380 (Reply 23):
However, I believe that a referendum at this point would see us packing our bags. In my opinion that is mainly due to the ECHR. The general public lump the hideous inadequacies and corruption of the ECHR with the EU and boy does the ECHR get some (rightly deserved) negative press in the UK.

Again, the EU and the ECHR are not the same thing! See post #4.

http://hub.coe.int/

http://europa.eu/index_en.htm

Cheers
Mats



Sure, we're concerned for our lives. Just not as concerned as saving 9 bucks on a roundtrip to Ft. Myers.
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 25, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 11 hours ago) and read 4842 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Doona (Reply 24):
Again, the EU and the ECHR are not the same thing! See post #4.

I believe it was clear he knew that from his post, but was rather trying to point out that unfortunately large swathes of the UK population do not make any such distinction in their perceptions - it's all Europe to them.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 26, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4847 times:

Quoting Doona (Reply 24):
the EU and the ECHR are not the same thing!

That's the funny thing: many people in the UK think a NO vote will somehow bring them back almost mythical sovereignty which will somehow solve all their worries: reality is it is only going to take it away even more than it currently is.

Like it or not: Europe-wide rules and regulations are the norm and that won't change in future, regardless whether the UK is 'in' or 'out'; it just can't be done otherwise in an ever more globalised world; voting NO will simply take away any current British influence on any of those EU rules and regulations which will have to be applied in and by the UK, regardless.

Today, London gets all draft versions of EU legislation and may have its say on them first.
In future, London may only get the final version of EU legislation and will just have to comply with it.

Believing the EU will make great concessions to the UK is a daydream: you can bet your life Frau Merkel and certainly the French are going to see to it any exit scenario will look extremely sobering: in fact, Angela Merkel has already said as much only a few days ago during a CSU/CDU election rally: no more exceptions or additional opt outs: when in Europe, you either sign up to the full package, or nothing.

Frankfurt must love the prospect of becoming the leading financial city in Europe in a couple of years time. 


User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 27, posted (1 year 8 months 2 days 10 hours ago) and read 4894 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 25):
Quoting Doona (Reply 24):
Again, the EU and the ECHR are not the same thing! See post #4.

I believe it was clear he knew that from his post, but was rather trying to point out that unfortunately large swathes of the UK population do not make any such distinction in their perceptions - it's all Europe to them.

Absolutely. Exactly the point I was trying to make, I just made a mess of making it  

Thanks RussianJet and sorry for any confusion  


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 28, posted (1 year 8 months 8 hours ago) and read 4733 times:

I guess Cameron at least is fine with the ECHR :

http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...A-bullying-lawyers-I-God-side.html

Quote:
After losing a string of hearings in Britain, she took her case to the European Court of Human Rights, and on Tuesday its judges found in her favour.

‘On the day of judgement there was a meeting at our church and we had a glass of bubbly and I said: “Thank you God!” I think I went a bit over the top actually,’ she says, half-apologetically.
...

Nadia, 61, later got a tweet from David Cameron saying he was ‘delighted the principle of wearing religious symbols at work has been upheld’.

Once again I don't really understand what's going on in the UK, with on the one hand BA banning her from wearing that tiny cross, while on the other hand police officers wear Muslim scarves or turbans, medical burqas are introduced in hospitals, etc.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 29, posted (1 year 8 months 7 hours ago) and read 4711 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Aesma (Reply 28):
Once again I don't really understand what's going on in the UK, with on the one hand BA banning her from wearing that tiny cross, while on the other hand police officers wear Muslim scarves or turbans, medical burqas are introduced in hospitals, etc.

Yeah, we're all wondering the same thing - and we live here.....



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinebaguy From Australia, joined Mar 2006, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 30, posted (1 year 8 months 7 hours ago) and read 4706 times:

Hey RussianJet - don't forget.. it's ok! we're more than welcome to go and live in Poland if we want...

Look.. I don't like the EU, and I'm by no means left wing. However, if we leave the EU, we're on our own.. you can go back as far as the ERM or look at how well the cuts are working to realise that we don't really have that much control over our economy. Therefore, the way I see it is that if we leave we get no say whatsoever - at least if we stay we can have at least some control and influence in Europe - otherwise France and Germany are going to run the show even more than they already do! The days of 'splendid isolation' are well and truly over!

And for one other thing, I think President Obama (a man who I actually rather admired until he started sticking his oar in!) has made it quite clear that, whatever people say, there is no such a thing as a 'special relationship' - it only exists because by being pally with Britain, the USA gets a bit of representation in the EU. If we leave the EU, I have a feeling the 'special status' will switch rather rapidly to Berlin....

Just my 2 cents!

BAguy


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 31, posted (1 year 8 months 4 hours ago) and read 4680 times:

Quoting baguy (Reply 30):
And for one other thing, I think President Obama (a man who I actually rather admired until he started sticking his oar in!) has made it quite clear that, whatever people say, there is no such a thing as a 'special relationship' - it only exists because by being pally with Britain, the USA gets a bit of representation in the EU. If we leave the EU, I have a feeling the 'special status' will switch rather rapidly to Berlin....

You've nailed the vast, huge, gaping hole in the Euro-phobia argument, since as much as any of them ever articulate any alternative ideas it's usually around joining the North American Free Trade Agreement'.
But Obama is not 'sticking his oar in', the State Department is merely reiterating what has been the US view on the UK and EU for 55 years! Longer than Obama has been alive.
Sure they are worried about any UK estrangement from the EU, it's bad for Europe, worse for Britain and very unhelpful for the US.

'The Special Relationship' is neurotically reported in the UK media with a self flagellation that bewilders many Americans.
It's not about any PM's relationship with any President, it's in the nuclear weapon and even more deeply, intelligence gathering areas. Those two areas ARE a unique relationship between the US and UK, the first also dating back 55 years the second since WW2.

But all this stuff with Cameron is not about the UK and Europe really, it's about managing the Tory Party.
Cameron, when he became leader, asked his party to stop 'banging on about Europe'.
Understandably, it helped to end Thatcher as PM, destroyed John Major's premiership (after he won an unexpected election victory in 1992 thus saving the seats of many of the MP's who would go on to torment him on Europe).
It hardly helped them after their 1997 crushing either, Thatcher - only just retaining her faculties by then, used her influence to get the very unsuitable William Hague as leader, who was himself corralled into fighting the 2001 election on a wholly spurious 'save the £' based campaign.
Like it or not, the £ had already been saved, by the Labour Chancellor Gordon Brown who prevented Blair from trying to include the UK in the single currency.
So the Tories suffered a second very heavy defeat in 2001.

For all of Cameron's attempts at some pragmatism on the Europe issue, he'd made a Faustian pact to get elected as leader of a now terminally Euro-phobic party, basically it went 'calm down on Europe and let me get us back into power'.
But of course, not getting a majority in 2010, worse still, having to go into coalition with the most pro Europe UK political party, the Lib Dems, when he faced a broken PM, an exhausted government and the worst recession living memory, did not endear him to large parts of his own party.
Including those who have the equally batty idea that they could get their policies, including many they had promised NOT to do when in opposition, as a minority government. Good luck with that.

The whole 'referendum on changes with our relationship with the EU' line is his attempt to hold the line against his fractious, often irrational party.
As a Parliamentary Democracy, referendums are not part of the political process, except in one circumstance - when a PM is in serious trouble with his own party.
That is the only reason we ever had one back in 1975, back then Labour PM Harold Wilson had many in his party, a few in his Cabinet, who wanted out of the EU. Mostly on the left.
Then as now it was about party management.
Then as now is was sold as 'renegotiating our terms of membership'.
Then as possibly in the near future, it won't be called unless the PM is as certain as he can be about his position winning it.

We do like to laugh, or just be shocked, at the level of political debate in the US on things like gun control, taxation, health-care, even the basics of science, where the Republicans, in the eyes of many over here, cannot be rational about these issues. Where moderates in that party are an endangered species.
Well the modern Tory Party is the same about Europe, moderates on this subject are thin on the ground here too.
Try getting selected as a Tory candidate by a constituency Conservative party by saying you are basically in favour of the UK being in the EU.
The US Republicans have their 'Tea Party', our Tories have their tea and biscuits party - likely condiments at interviews for potential candidates as their MP.
Both parties being dominated at the grass roots by the elderly, the narrow minded, the nostalgic.

As for the Tories claim to have their fingers on the pulse of the business community, well they don't seem to listen too much to what the heads of major - and not so major - companies think about their increasingly hostile stance on Europe.
They won't keep quiet in the hope it all dies down forever, not just UK business either, all this will soon, if it hasn't already, have a detrimental effect on foreign companies considering the UK for major investments.

If Cameron really is concerned about the UK's place Europe and the world, he needs to grow a pair and tell his party some home truths.
Cameron once said that he would rather have only one term in office where he got the leglisation he wanted passed than a longer period but with fewer of his policies being enacted.
If he wants to stop his parties seemingly inexorable slide towards having a policy of leaving the EU altogether, he might have to stress test that statement.
He cannot say 'back me on this or I'll resign' since too many of his most anti EU MP's would say 'good riddance'.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 32, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 22 hours ago) and read 4639 times:

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
There is a lot of public antipathy towards the EU in the UK

-
there is a lot of public antipathy towards the EU in most EU countries nowadays. The French philosophy of centralism has captured the EU, while Britain failed to keep up more federalism. The only British Prime Minister who showed some understanding for federalism and federal structures (he called it "subsidiarity") was John Major.

Quoting kaitak (Thread starter):
The big issue is that although Britain had a vote on joining the EU in 1972,

-
Negative, Britain had NO vote on joining the EU, except a vote in parliament. I happened to live in London Oct/Nov/Dec 72 and can well remember those times. I each evening watched the news of BBC-1 or BBC-2 plus the ones of ITN/ITV

You see, there were reasons why your Mr Eamon de Valera turned the Irish Free State into the Republic.


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 33, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 20 hours ago) and read 4621 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 32):
You see, there were reasons why your Mr Eamon de Valera turned the Irish Free State into the Republic.

Ironic that you mention de Valera, despite having him nothing in common with the British Tory Party of the last 20 or so years - in his day they were his enemy - there is something similar with his policies of economic and political isolation, which stunted Ireland's develop for many decades and the 'ourselves alone' stance of UKIP and increasingly the Tories.
UKIP and the Euro-phobic Conservatives are the British 'Sinn Fein' in this respect.

We didn't 'have a vote' on joining NATO in 1949 either, since we are this Parliamentary Democracy, if you don't like it then vote for a party that opposes it.
Back then it was the British Communist Party.
But with NATO Britain had a major role in forming and shaping this organisation, under the formidable Ernie Bevin, Foreign Secretary of the post war Labour government.

Had we joined the then EEC in the mid to late 1950's the UK would have had much more influence in it's subsequent development.
Better yet would have been in the late 1940's but it was politically untenable then, since the UK still thought of the Empire as it's economic bloc even as it was rapidly becoming the Commonwealth and though strong ties largely remained the economic ones were loosening, inevitable in the Post War would now dominated by two superpowers.

But after 1958, with De Gaulle in power across the Channel, the UK's persistent attempts are applying to join from the start of the 1960's were to be rebuffed while he was alive.
Since he knew that having the UK in the EEC would have a great influence, undermining his stance of pretending to speak for and influence the EEC when he was only ever speaking for, influencing for France.

Once De Gaulle was gone from power, then from the world, the UK's application, now by Tory PM Ted Heath, was eagerly accepted.
Heath was passionate about this, many modern Tories and UKIP call him a 'traitor'.
A disgusting slur by the ignorant, Heath's passion for the EEC was based on two events in his life, in the 1930's as a student, he cycled across much of Europe running into Nazi rallies and even meeting Hitler and his inner circle.
He came back thoroughly opposed to appeasement.
The next time was as an officer in the British Army, fighting across France and into Germany, seeing all the horrors along the way.


User currently offlineblueflyer From United States of America, joined Jan 2006, 3996 posts, RR: 2
Reply 34, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4597 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Doona (Reply 4):
The European Court of Human Rights has nothing to do with the European Union.

Put Euro in front of almost anything and the Brits will hate it and blame "Brussels"...

Quoting SuperCaravelle (Reply 5):
I would advice them to do as Switzerland: apply for Schengen membership, but don't bother with the EU.

I can't imagine the UK applying for Schengen membership in my lifetime (and I hope to be around for several decades still). Beyond that, Germany and the rest of the EU are on a campaign to, at best, tone down, special relationships such as Switzerland's in favor of a simple in-or-out model. I therefore can't imagine that the UK would be offered anything but a binary choice.

Quoting offloaded (Reply 6):
As a long time resident (and business owner) of Portugal you'd think I'd be pro-EU, but I vote OUT in a UK referendum any day of the week.

Your right of residence in Portugal would end if the UK left the EU, unless the UK signed a bilateral treaty with Portugal to allow you to stay. If that treaty were not forthcoming, would you go home or try and take up Portuguese citizenship? That is a matter you, your fellow Brits in Southern countries and millions of EU citizens in the UK would have to think hard about...

Quoting offloaded (Reply 6):
Actually, I'd bet the exact opposite.

How would the UK's political influence benefit from leaving the EU? Take the "special relationship" with the USA, for instance. It is special because, chief among other things, it gives Washington an indirect insider's view on the workings of the EU. That "special relationship" will be less special once that view is blocked. I would expect Washington to spend a little more time courting Berlin or Paris at the expense of London.

With export-driven manufacturing such as the auto and aviation industries and international banks moving out to remain within the EU, I can't imagine the economy to be doing much better.

Quoting OA260 (Reply 9):
The UK will not leave but there may be some renegotiations on the powers that are brought back home.

I don't think it is going to happen. Germany has a lot to gain whatever the outcome of a straight in-or-out choice, not so much with a a-la-carte approach.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 10):
In my opinion, the basic 'wrong turning' that the EU took was the introduction of the Euro.

I slightly disagree. The "wrong turn" was fiddling with statistics and economic figures to accept dubious countries such as Greece and Italy into the Euro zone.

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 21):
In theory controls exist, but in reality border control is utterly powerless to turn back arrivals who clearly have nothing to offer but everything to take, as EEA regulations insist they be allowed three months from any arrival regardless of their means.

So perhaps the question ought to be why they're not asked rather firmly to find a new country of residence after three months. Other countries have ejected EU citizens from their borders because they refused perfectly suitable work. If the UK won't do it, shouldn't the focus be on London, not Brussels...



I've got $h*t to do
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 35, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 4594 times:

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 34):
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 10):
In my opinion, the basic 'wrong turning' that the EU took was the introduction of the Euro.

I slightly disagree. The "wrong turn" was fiddling with statistics and economic figures to accept dubious countries such as Greece and Italy into the Euro zone.

More or less comes to the same thing, in my view, blueflyer.

Oddly enough, I first visited Germany in 1958, as a reserve soldier. In those days it was 'notable' that even then, when buying the (truly excellent) beer available there in our off-duty hours, we could quite often get a discount by offering the odd pound note instead of marks (I should perhaps mention that average weekly wages in Britain at that time were only around seven pounds a week).

Thing is, if even Germany had a weak currency at that time, most of Europe was even worse off. The old joke back then was that Britain used to run 'The Changing Of The Guard' every week, and the French used to have 'the changing of the government' at more or less similar intervals.......  

As I've said, in my view the Euro isn't just part of the problem - it IS the problem. Places like Greece, Portugal, Spain, and even Italy used to devalue their currencies pretty well every week back in those days; and, even nowadays, they simply can't live with the Euro:-

"The euro-area jobless rate rose to a record in November as the fiscal crisis and tougher austerity measures deepened Europe’s economic troubles.

"Unemployment in the 17-nation region rose to 11.8 per cent from 11.7 per cent in October, the European Union’s statistics office in Luxembourg said today. That’s the highest since the data series started in 1995 and in line with the median estimate of 27 economists in a Bloomberg News survey.

"The euro-area economy has shrunk for two successive quarters and economists foresee a further decline in gross domestic product in the final three months of last year, forcing companies to cut costs by slashing jobs. The European Central Bank estimates contractions of 0.5 per cent and 0.3 per cent in 2012 and 2013.

“In the southern areas of the eurozone, demand is very weak and therefore there is no way to see fundamental improvement in labor-market conditions,” said Uwe Duerkop, an economist at Landesbank Berlin. “There might be some stabilization in the labor market in the second half of the year where one can expect this trend of growing unemployment numbers to stop, but that’s not the story for the moment.”

"Today’s jobless report showed that 18.8 million people were unemployed in the euro area in November, up 113,000 from the previous month. At 26.6 per cent, Spain had the highest jobless rate in the currency bloc. Germany’s jobless rate was 5.4 per cent and France’s stood at 10.5 per cent. Austria had the lowest rate at 4.5 per cent.

"The data also showed that youth unemployment was at 24.4 per cent, with Spain’s rate more than double that at 56.5 per cent."


Read more: http://www.smh.com.au/business/world...-20130109-2cff9.html#ixzz2IWAOgv8B

Phase out the Euro and let every EU country revert to its own currency, which it can devalue or revalue as necessary, and everything will 'come right.' There's no other solution.......



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 36, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 4550 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 34):
So perhaps the question ought to be why they're not asked rather firmly to find a new country of residence after three months. Other countries have ejected EU citizens from their borders because they refused perfectly suitable work. If the UK won't do it, shouldn't the focus be on London, not Brussels...

The problem is - after they leave, the second they come back, even the following day EEA Regs demand that they have three months again regardless.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineDano1977 From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Jun 2008, 499 posts, RR: 0
Reply 37, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 4525 times:

David Cameron keeps on plugging about going to Europe and renegotiating our position within europe.

What would be on the table that needs changing?



Children should only be allowed on aircraft if 1. Muzzled and heavily sedated 2. Go as freight
User currently onlineyyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16251 posts, RR: 56
Reply 38, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4465 times:

The UK needs to stay in the EU, whatever its drawbacks.

There has always been a fundamental difference betw how Brits and Germans want the EU to proceed: Brits see the EU a a loose group of free-trade partners, while Germany wants to create a European federal state. The UK should stay in the EU to maintain the trade benefits while fighting against the creation of more EU bureacracy and the creation of an EU federal state.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 39, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 12 hours ago) and read 4460 times:

Quoting GDB (Reply 33):
de Valera, despite having him nothing in common with the British Tory Party

-
NO, he clearly had nothing in common with the UK Tories ...... he would revolve in his grave if anybody said so

Quoting GDB (Reply 33):
we are this Parliamentary Democracy, if you don't like it then vote for a party that opposes it.


-
as I am not a UK citizen I cannot vote in the UK. I however very often think that British democracy is a good thing. Strangely enough, I in Nov 72 was one of the 12 signatories who brought the Green Line Bus system into Westminster. The thing was instructive and impressive to me. I NEVER had as much influence in Switzerland than within 10 minutes in Britain. But right here you put me into a problem. I still might like to see the UK to have more direct popular votes about things of relevance. And I clearly prefer a proportional voting system which not only gives small parties a decent chance but makes it impossible that a large party with 35% of the votes gets an absolute majority in parliament

Quoting GDB (Reply 33):
Ted Heath, was eagerly accepted.
Heath was passionate about this, many modern Tories and UKIP call him a 'traitor'.

As I knew that I was to go to Britain to learn decent English, it was Teddy Heath who just in time changed the currency to a system I was able to understand. And so, the man stays in my memory as the chap who solved a serious problem for me
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=N_K7W3-3ECc

Quoting blueflyer (Reply 34):
Germany and the rest of the EU are on a campaign to, at best, tone down, special relationships such as Switzerland's in favor of a simple in-or-out model.

Switzerland is a full member of both the Schengen and the Dublin agreement and of ECAC. Germany cannot "tone down" anything

Quoting Dano1977 (Reply 37):
David Cameron keeps on plugging about going to Europe and renegotiating our position within europe.

My proposal is that the UK quits the EU and re-joins EFTA. And then goes into some BIlateral Agreements with the EU. The EFTA with then Iceland, Norway, Britain, Switzerland and Liechtenstein as members would be a factor again


User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 40, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4438 times:

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 39):
NO, he clearly had nothing in common with the UK Tories ...... he would revolve in his grave if anybody said so

Fine by me, but putting to one side his 'issues' with the British, his isolationist stance in general bedevilled Ireland for a long time beyond his tenure. Hence my comparison with isolationist Tories today.
Good for us since the UK was probably the major beneficiary of the immense human talent of Ireland, not just in culture and way beyond construction workers.

And this is a world so much less interconnected than today.
The Tories should also heed the warnings of Norway, they are by geography and economics, subject to many EU regulations but with none of the influence.

Closer to home, to appease the anti EU nutters, even the more rational Tory ministers like Teresa May, are throwing bones to them such as seeking to withdraw from agreements on Justice, trials, extradition within the EU.
Much to the horror of senior Police Officers, lawyers/legal activists - don't see those two groups agree on much - the Intelligence services and those have have seen justice delivered for them or their loved ones by the current agreements.
When the self declared 'Party Of Law And Order' starts doing such potential damage to crime prevention and justice, for ideological/party managed reasons, you know they've started to abandon reason.


User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 41, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 4421 times:

Quoting baguy (Reply 30):
Therefore, the way I see it is that if we leave we get no say whatsoever - at least if we stay we can have at least some control and influence in Europe - otherwise France and Germany are going to run the show even more than they already do! The days of 'splendid isolation' are well and truly over!
Quoting yyz717 (Reply 38):
The UK should stay in the EU to maintain the trade benefits while fighting against the creation of more EU bureacracy and the creation of an EU federal state.

Well, other than Thatcher negotiating the discount and the funds that the UK pumps in, the French and Germans seem pretty intent on running things their way, the last debates on the influence of the city on EU financial rules and regulations were telling.
So far, no olive branch has been forthcoming from the EU so, let's hope the optimism is warranted.


User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7365 posts, RR: 5
Reply 42, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 4408 times:

Quoting DNDTUF (Reply 19):
If Britain were to leave the EU, the country would still be bound by the same trade rules and directives but would have no influence whatsoever in the creation of such rules.

If Britain were to leave the EU, the country would occupy the same pointless (IMO) position as Norway complying with all the rules but with no influence.


User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 43, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4364 times:

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 42):
If Britain were to leave the EU, the country would occupy the same pointless (IMO) position as Norway complying with all the rules but with no influence.

THIS exactly is why I would see Britain to stay INSIDE the EU. Norway and Switzerland even when giving up EFTA anf joining the EU would not have much influence due to lack of people but Britain already now would have a lot of influence if using its power. John Major was very influential within the EU to an extent none of his predecessors or successorfs ever had. His secret ? Simple. HE used the power available. His noble three successors never used the available powers


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 44, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 6 hours ago) and read 4347 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 41):
Well, other than Thatcher negotiating the discount and the funds that the UK pumps in, the French and Germans seem pretty intent on running things their way, the last debates on the influence of the city on EU financial rules and regulations were telling.
So far, no olive branch has been forthcoming from the EU so, let's hope the optimism is warranted.

Why should there be an olive branch about the City, when the UK is not part of the eurozone ? Why isn't the UK public demanding more regulation of the City when it's clearly out of control ?



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 45, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 4322 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 44):
Why should there be an olive branch about the City, when the UK is not part of the eurozone ? Why isn't the UK public demanding more regulation of the City when it's clearly out of control ?

There should be none and there is none, so those who talk about the UK being able to influence the general trend of the EU away from the desires of France and Germany are as I said optimistic.
As for regulation of the City, France and Germany believe that the City is out of control, and since that is their believe they will assist in correct the problem.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 46, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 4243 times:

Interesting snippet from the British press:-

"And we've got confirmation that David Cameron's speech on Europe will take place in London on Wednesday morning. Just to recap, Cameron delayed the speech on Friday, after abandoning a trip to the Netherlands to deal with the Algerian hostage crisis.

"The prime minister had been due to warn his fellow European leaders that British membership of the EU could be put at risk unless its membership terms are changed. We already have an idea of what he is going to say, as some of the speech was leaked last week. So we can expect the following quotes:

"If we don't address these challenges, the danger is that Europe will fail and the British people will drift towards the exit. There is a growing frustration that the EU is seen as something that is done to people rather than acting on their behalf. And this is being intensified by the very solutions required to resolve the economic problems.

"People are increasingly frustrated that decisions taken further and further away from them mean their living standards are slashed through enforced austerity or their taxes are used to bail out governments on the other side of the continent."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...ive-finance-chiefs-vote-new-leader

Must admit that that's pretty well the way I see things. In fact, it's one of the reasons why, after working hard to establish the ECM ('European Common Market') in the first place, I eventually decided to move my family to Australia years ago.

The Eurozone is now operating in a completely illogical way. The only way the stronger Eurozone countries can go on selling exports to the weaker ones is to lend them the money to buy the stuff with. Money which they must know can never be repaid. But they go further - imposing 'austerity' on the debtor countries; which, of course, means that, sooner rather than later, those countries will, quite soon, face such widespread poverty as to be unable to go on importing stuff from the wealthier countries anyway........

I repeat what I said earlier on this thread - that the 'super-hard' Euro is the problem, not the solution - and that phasing it out as quickly as possible, in all but a very few wealthier Eurozone countries, is essential if any sort of equilibrium is to be restored.

What Britain does or doesn't do about EU membership is irrelevant in that context. Britain (and other non-Euro EU members) will be fine anyway; because they are 'Euro-free.' The priority for the Eurozone HAS to be to free places like Greece, Spain, Portugal, and Ireland from the 'tyranny' of the Euro, and give them half a chance of economic survival.......

[Edited 2013-01-21 05:55:44]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 47, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4154 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 45):
the UK being able to influence the general trend of the EU away from the desires of France and Germany are as I said optimistic.

"desires of France and Germany" '? This is simply wrong. The desire of France and Germany are very different, but Germany since the days of Konrad Adenauer had to find ways to compromise with France in order preserve its own interests. Very often the "desires" of Germany are far closer to the "desires" of Britain, but with Britain practically not participating the Germans have to work with France ever again.


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 48, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 7 hours ago) and read 4142 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 47):
but with Britain practically not participating

Explain please, and using facts, not just relying on the euro and Schengen.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 49, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 6 hours ago) and read 4138 times:

In some ways, Merkel should be quite close to Cameron, though the UK centre right party differs in many ways from that of a very different nation like Germany, at heart they do occupy some of the same political ground.
Markel will likely do what she can, within reason, to help Cameron in the EU.
But here's the rub, that just inflames his now very large Euro-Phobe wing of his party, Cameron's speech is far more about trying to calm them down than the reality, the pragmatic arguments, about the UK and the EU.

Merkel however does have rather a lot on her plate, on the one hand if she and other EU leaders think the UK is the most problematic member of the organisation, that probably only lasts as long, seconds probably, until they remember the travails of some of the EU members in the South, Greece, Spain, Italy, Portugal.
Whenever Merkel comes to the UK, she won't be met with demonstrators depicting her as the Heir To Hitler, put it that way.

But these huge challenges cannot be too distracted by trying the impossible, by acceding to the time wasting demands of the Euro-phobe element in Cameron's party, besides, even if they do throw them a bone, they soon are back barking for a bigger one, as has happened before and so on until they make the UK's position in the EU untenable.
This is their tactic, this is where Cameron will have to, like it or not, draw a line at some point.
This is where he'll have to be a Statesman, but country above party - or just his job if it comes to it.

It might do that too, some of his Euro-phobes will happily destruct their own government in pursuit of their obsession, as they did with John Major who was in a much stronger position after the 1992 election than Cameron was after 2010.
Presumably, the most bloody minded ones are in safe Tory seats so less likely to be a direct victim of an election defeat, certainly many are the same old names, same old pinched, bitter faces, going back some 20-25 years.

Referendums are, in our system at least, cop outs for those who seek to be seen as major international statesmen but who cannot manage their own parties.
That was Wilson's problem in 1974/5 too.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 50, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 5 hours ago) and read 4109 times:

Well Brussels sure is imposing austerity on Southern Europe, but not on the UK. Cameron is doing that fine by himself, so if he starts blaming the EU for his own policies, he's really not up to the job.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 51, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 3 hours ago) and read 4077 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 48):
Explain please, and using facts, not just relying on the euro and Schengen.

-
I do not talk about the Euro and Schengen, but about the obvious fact that Britain under most British Prime Minsters except Teddy Heath and John Major took a very low profile in EU matters

Quoting GDB (Reply 49):
In some ways, Merkel should be quite close to Cameron, though the UK centre right party differs in many ways from that of a very different nation like Germany, at heart they do occupy some of the same political ground.
Markel will likely do what she can, within reason, to help Cameron in the EU.

-
As the close partner of Mrs Merkel, Mr Sarkozy, was ousted from power and her relationship with Mr Hollande is a bit problematic to put it mildly, Mr Cameron has a chance to bring Britain fully into play. When he visited Mrs Merkel a few months ago, you had the impression of two very close cousins sitting together for a chat !

Mr Hollande no longer has Mr Zapatero in Madrid on his side but a far right politician leading Spain now. And Mr Monti of course is far left of Mr Berlusconi, but not a friend of the leftist policies of Mr Hollande. The Président de la République may be forced, by the next parliamentary elections, into a new Cohabitation, and may then be ready for a tripartite alliance. But until then, Mr Cameron has a nice chance to play HIS game


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 52, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 2 hours ago) and read 4065 times:

Well aside from some dreaming conservatives nobody thinks there will be legislative elections in France before next presidential election in 2017. And I'm not sure what you mean really when you talk about UK and Germany having the same goals, Germany wants a federal EU, the UK certainly does not, while France is in between and Hollande very much European, although I'm sure he wants an Europe that would look like France, like most of us French people. If you're talking about the EU budget, well, that's really small potatoes in the long run, far less important than institutional matters.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 53, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 4022 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 52):
..although I'm sure he wants an Europe that would look like France, like most of us French people.

This is why Europe can/will never become a federal state, there is no way that this could be deemed acceptable to the rest of Europe. The cultural differences between the European countries are just too great.

[Edited 2013-01-22 05:19:56]

User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 54, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 15 hours ago) and read 3978 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 51):
I do not talk about the Euro and Schengen, but about the obvious fact that Britain under most British Prime Minsters except Teddy Heath and John Major took a very low profile in EU matters

Really not sure how this obvservation translates to 'practically not participating'. The fact is that the UK has, while perhaps not taking the lead it might in many matters, been a full player in the EU. As I suspected, it's more about perception than fact.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineeinsteinboricua From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2010, 3094 posts, RR: 8
Reply 55, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 8 hours ago) and read 3935 times:

The main problem with the UK is that it looks like with every treaty Brussels takes over more sovereignty of each member state by committing them to long-term projects. The UK's position to opt in when it likes isn't really what a member state should do. If it decides to leave the EU, then so be it. Of course, you can expect the EU to enter a recession and for the euro to drop in value (even if the UK doesn't use the euro). It would signify that the European project as a whole isn't working out as it should. The UK's opt out on many areas (or its departure from the EU) could open Pandora's box. What's to say that France won't ask for opt outs as well? Greece? Italy? What if other countries see the EU as risky and decide to depart as well? Switzerland is a fine example of how an European country doesn't need the EU to thrive (though Switzerland relies on its banking sector as well) It only takes one country to see that for the EU to collapse. Of course, other countries, like Greece, Bulgaria, etc. see the EU as a way to tie their economies to stronger powers and (in the case of the Baltic countries) to escape Russian influence. it will be interesting to see what happens to the EU this year and how that progresses.


"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 56, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3917 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 54):
Really not sure how this obvservation translates to 'practically not participating'. The fact is that the UK has, while perhaps not taking the lead it might in many matters, been a full player in the EU. As I suspected, it's more about perception than fact.

The United Kingdom is one of the big three inside the E.U. but in spite of having been encouraged to do so by Germany repeatedly never really assumed any leading role. No Sir, Britain may have been a "full member" but a "full player" it never was. Britain exerted less influence than countries like Italy, Spain and Austria. And in many respects, Switzerland as a NON EU member is more closely integrated than the UK, which is a rather strange thing


User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 57, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 3909 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 56):

The United Kingdom is one of the big three inside the E.U. but in spite of having been encouraged to do so by Germany repeatedly never really assumed any leading role.

Again, not leading does not equate to not participating.

Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 56):
And in many respects, Switzerland as a NON EU member is more closely integrated than the UK

In what respect? Schengen, and.....oh.....that would be about it I guess.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 58, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 3878 times:

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 55):
Of course, you can expect the EU to enter a recession and for the euro to drop in value (even if the UK doesn't use the euro).

I don't see why the EU would enter a recession, especially considering it's already in one. As for the Euro, if it were to drop then it would certainly help exit that recession !

Quoting einsteinboricua (Reply 55):
What if other countries see the EU as risky and decide to depart as well?

Departing is more risky. Especially for Euro countries, which clearly are already in another boat compared to the UK.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineeinsteinboricua From Puerto Rico, joined Apr 2010, 3094 posts, RR: 8
Reply 59, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 3 hours ago) and read 3867 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 58):
I don't see why the EU would enter a recession, especially considering it's already in one. As for the Euro, if it were to drop then it would certainly help exit that recession !

1. It's in one due to the debt crisis, but what if the economies return to positive level by year's end? For a country to leave the EU might start a stock market selloff which can usually lead to a recession, even if moderate.
2. Depends on how you view it. Germany benefits, in a way, from the high value of the euro. Other countries would prefer a lower euro. If your powerhouse is affected by the lower value, then what?

Quoting Aesma (Reply 58):
Departing is more risky. Especially for Euro countries, which clearly are already in another boat compared to the UK.

Well, ever since the Grexit talk, there have been many analyses regarding euro countries (particularly Germany) returning to their legacy currency. Should a strong economy like Germany, France, or Netherlands (to name a few) decide to depart the EU (but remain integrated via the EEA) it is suggested that their economies would withstand the transitional period. However, an economy like Greece or Italy, with a high debt burden, would definitely suffer. But, as you mentioned, departing carries risks.



"You haven't seen a tree until you've seen its shadow from the sky."
User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 60, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 3844 times:

May I remind all that this topic is about the UK and the promissed referendum on giving up all influence over decisions that are going to affect the UK anyhow ('in' our 'out'), not about the Eurozone or any fantasy break-up of it?

It should be clear the eurozone is not going to fall apart like some ill-informed people had wished for: as Mario Draghi said and demonstrated: "the euro is irreversible", and it showed to be such indeed.

I'd like to add to that that IMHO the EU itself is irreversible too, and giving up your membership doesnt suddenly make a country less susceptible to any of its decisions. For that the UK needn't step out of the EU, it should see the EU become just a free trade zone, but that is not what is on the agenda in BRU and no regional referendum in the UK is going to be able to put that on the agenda eighter - so much has already been made clear by Frau Merkel.

[Edited 2013-01-23 00:14:34]

User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 61, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 3773 times:

Nice statement by Martin Schulz about Camerons EU speech, at the end of this article:

http://www.spiegel.de/international/...in-out-eu-referendum-a-879175.html

Quote:
... the reforms necessary to make the EU more effective, more transparent and leaner had failed in part because Britain had blocked them. "They are the ones who are largley responsible for the delays in Europe and also the ones pointing their fingers at Europe."



Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 62, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 3753 times:

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 61):
Quote:
... the reforms necessary to make the EU more effective, more transparent and leaner had failed in part because Britain had blocked them. "They are the ones who are largley responsible for the delays in Europe and also the ones pointing their fingers at Europe."

This should be the reason why the rest of Europe should push the UK Prime Minister to have the referendum now versus using it as a carrot for voters to vote for his party in 5 years time, talk about lost of influenece, jobs etc. what's the point, if the belief is that the UK is a stumbling block better to face the musc now rather than later. If the UK population opts to leave now, the rest of Europe who want closer integration can get on with it and let the UK pursue its dreams or nightmares.

I'm also lost on his logic of not giving the population the choice now, if a referendum is held it will be about the UK being in the EU, not about whatever details he can iron out, he has absolutely no control over what the EU chooses to re-negotiate, that ship sailed a long time ago, if they wanted the ability to claw back powers that should have been defined when they gave those powers away.

In this day and age of instant information where everything is digital, does it really take so many years for people to be educated on the pros and cons of the EU?


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 63, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3731 times:

A referendum in 2017, how can the UK public accept this ? I hope there will be outrage, this is bullshit of the highest quality. In France where we do practice referendums, although not that often and with mixed results, if the president proposed a referendum in 4-5 years time after the election that could unseat him he would be laughed at. In fact Sarkozy did propose a referendum during his 2012 campaign with the idea of doing it a few months later right after his reelection, and everybody answered that the election was the referendum.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12466 posts, RR: 37
Reply 64, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3723 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 62):
I'm also lost on his logic of not giving the population the choice now, if a referendum is held it will be about the UK being in the EU, not about whatever details he can iron out, he has absolutely no control over what the EU chooses to re-negotiate, that ship sailed a long time ago

I think that "kicking the can down the road" has been DC's method of dealing with a number of things, such as the LHR runway. There is a big "anti-Europe" bloc in his own party, not to mention the British media. Cameron knows that if a referendum were tabled tomorrow, there would be a large vote in favour of leaving. He feels that this is not right for Britain (and most of the business community would agree with him). However, I think that negotiating a change would be virtually impossible; once you do that, you give carte blanche to the other 26 to do the same and once you open that floodgate ...

That said, I do find it ironic that in a community which is supposed to be founded on democratic principles, the thing that the EU fears most is a public referendum. However, it should give them pause for thought; Cameron is correct in saying that there is a democratic deficit in the EU. Only a small majority of people in the UK - and indeed most of the community - know who their MEP(s) is/are, and their immediate representatives (i.e. in their local parliament) tend to be their first port of call for any issues. They tend to view the EU parliament as a talk shop, with little real powers; where the power really lies - the Commission - seems remote and inaccessible, with very little responsibility to other institutions; the recent fiasco over the EU attempting to impose emissions tax on airlines is a perfect example; no-one seemed to have the power to pull them back and stop them, and it turned out to be a complete disaster; that should not have been allowed to happen.

In the end, however, I think that Britain is also important to the EU as a trading market and while the British people will probably vote to bail out, Britain will still be a part of the free trade region, and that's really what it wants. I think that the EU has tried to do too much and in trying to do so, has made itself remote from its population. It is a lesson in democratic accountability; sooner or later, things reach a stage when the people feel that the train has moved on without them and that's the way Britain (and probably, if they're being honest, the populations of other countries too) feels. The growth and development of the EU has been driven far more by civil servants than the people and the people have been rationalised out of it. The EU may bemoan the fact that this vote will take place, but in reality, it's a healthy thing; it's a pressure valve, but it should also be pause for thought. I just doubt that it will be.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 65, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3716 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 64):
That said, I do find it ironic that in a community which is supposed to be founded on democratic principles, the thing that the EU fears most is a public referendum

Well a referendum with all EU citizens having a vote would not have the same results as a UK only referendum. You could also do an English referendum and a Scottish referendum and end up with one leaving and one staying.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 66, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3715 times:

Quoting kaitak (Reply 64):
Cameron knows that if a referendum were tabled tomorrow, there would be a large vote in favour of leaving.

My take is that Cameron and those that think like him "believe" that the people will vote to leave, some might say it smacks of arrogance in thinking that the masses that they spend billions on educating and providing access to information on a daily basis and not intelligent enough to know what takes place in their country on a daily basis and where they stand as a nation to make an informed decision.

Quoting kaitak (Reply 64):
He feels that this is not right for Britain (and most of the business community would agree with him).

Which is the entire issue, it's about what he and his party believes and wants and how they wish to channel the UK society, unfortunately, under the current political structure, once elected, one is empowered to make decisions on everything whether listed in campaign material or discussed without having to seek voter approval for another 5 years.


User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 67, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 3721 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 65):
Well a referendum with all EU citizens having a vote would not have the same results as a UK only referendum. You could also do an English referendum and a Scottish referendum and end up with one leaving and one staying.

Leaving the EU could be another reason for the Scots to leave the UK. They've benefited very well from the EU so far.



Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlinebaguy From Australia, joined Mar 2006, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 68, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 3649 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 65):
Well a referendum with all EU citizens having a vote would not have the same results as a UK only referendum. You could also do an English referendum and a Scottish referendum and end up with one leaving and one staying.

Not exactly... neither England nor Scotland are EU member states in their own right - the UK is as a whole - so if the UK goes, the whole UK goes - Scotland couldn't stay.

BAguy


User currently offlineOzGlobal From France, joined Nov 2004, 2721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 69, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3631 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 63):

A referendum in 2017, how can the UK public accept this ? I hope there will be outrage, this is bullshit of the highest quality. In France where we do practice referendums, although not that often and with mixed results, if the president proposed a referendum in 4-5 years time after the election that could unseat him he would be laughed at. In fact Sarkozy did propose a referendum during his 2012 campaign with the idea of doing it a few months later right after his reelection, and everybody answered that the election was the referendum.

Exactly, the whole initiative is a transparent, disingenuous play to try to fend off his internal Tory anti-Euro nut jobs, appease those among the UK populous who are their Murdoch rag reading followers, and pretend to be 'strong' in front of the EU. What a weak little man. I hope he gets hell from his Lib Dem partners, because he surely will be forgotten by history.



When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7365 posts, RR: 5
Reply 70, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 10 hours ago) and read 3612 times:

Quoting baguy (Reply 68):
Not exactly... neither England nor Scotland are EU member states in their own right - the UK is as a whole - so if the UK goes, the whole UK goes - Scotland couldn't stay.

BAguy

IS the Scottish EU referendum before or after the EU one?


User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 71, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3603 times:

Quoting baguy (Reply 68):
Not exactly... neither England nor Scotland are EU member states in their own right - the UK is as a whole - so if the UK goes, the whole UK goes - Scotland couldn't stay.

But Scotland can leave the UK and become an EU member.
And I wouldn't be surprised if Wales would follow the example.

[Edited 2013-01-23 12:40:31]


Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 72, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3591 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting Aesma (Reply 63):
A referendum in 2017, how can the UK public accept this ?

Accept it? I think most of the UK populace is resigned to the fact that almost nothing they do actually makes any difference to the politicians, so I don't think there is any active acceptance - more a resignation to the fact that whatever we vote for they ignore us.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinebaguy From Australia, joined Mar 2006, 546 posts, RR: 1
Reply 73, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3594 times:

Quoting KiwiRob (Reply 70):
IS the Scottish EU referendum before or after the EU one?

2014 is the Scottish Independence one - but i think the quoted was referring to a split referendum within the UK.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 71):
But Scotland can leave the UK and become an EU member.
And I wouldn't be surprised if Wales would follow the example.

But not automatically - what I was trying to say (not particularly clear perhaps) was that an independent Scotland wouldn't automatically be part of the EU whether or not the UK left.

BAguy


User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 74, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3584 times:

It's easy to understand why, on a purely social level, there are so many europhobes in the UK. The frankly arrogant replies from a few people in this thread do very little to discourage the stereotypes so many in this country have about mainland Europeans. After all, we don't tend to pick up the burning tyre at the first sign of "bullshit of the highest quality"

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 71):
And I wouldn't be surprised if Wales would follow the example.

That's not going to happen..

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 69):
What a weak little man. I hope he gets hell from his Lib Dem partners, because he surely will be forgotten by history.

David Cameron is in an extremely difficult position, with a large number mutinous Tory backbenchers, huge public unrest, a useless coalition partner, an opposition that takes great pride in taking the opposing view to the government regardless of subject matter, pressure from the US, pressure from the Murdoch empire and the rise of UKIP. Whilst all at the same time being acutely aware that the result of giving the public an IN/OUT referendum today would ruin our economy overnight.

I'm not saying I agree with the decision he made today but I understand why he has had to make it.

[Edited 2013-01-23 13:22:07]

[Edited 2013-01-23 13:23:15]

User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 75, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 3583 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 63):
referendum in 2017, how can the UK public accept this ? I hope there will be outrage, this is bullshit of the highest quality.

It's not for us, it's for his party.
Be aware that however strong feelings might be expressed in polls about the EU - usually from a very loaded question, it's never featured as a major issue in any general election. Cameron might hope this helps him in that respect, so far he's got little else to show for.

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 71):
But Scotland can leave the UK and become an EU member.

Just today the EU rebuffed another advance from Salmond, the SNP have come a bit unstuck with the EU issue, in what they arrogantly claim to be the case if they got their way with EU membership and what the EU said would happen, being very different. Maybe they should have asked first.
In that respect, they have that in common with Cameron.


User currently offlinekaitak From Ireland, joined Aug 1999, 12466 posts, RR: 37
Reply 76, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 3576 times:

As far as Scotland is concerned, I'm sure Alex Salmond would take great joy in adding to Cameron's problems; giving a referendum on EU membership weakens the strength of his opposition to a Scottish referendum. I think that Scotland would probably prefer to remain in the EU. It could be a very complicated arrangement down the road, with England and Wales out and Scotland in (the EU), but Scotland out of the UK.

Quoting U2380 (Reply 74):
Whilst all at the same time being acutely aware that the result of giving the public an IN/OUT referendum today would ruin our economy overnight.

But is this really true? In practical terms, what will it change? Brittain will still have access to the EU market and vice versa. The French govt said today that they would "roll out the red carpet" for companies willing to move to France; yeah, this is the same French govt that wanted to tax the wealthy at the rate of 75%, which has a failing economy and a bureaucracy and culture that tends to be anti-business.

As I said before, this is a challenge to the EU; it can either throw its toys of the cot, or it can ride the storm. In reality, this has been a long time brewing and the best thing that can be said it that it removes uncertainty, as far as the UK is concerned. What it SHOULD also do is to remind the EU that the democratic deficit is a serious issue and the absence of the possibility of referenda in other EU countries should not be taken as approval; the EU has plotted a course for itself which has had hardly any public support and from which the population of 400m are increasingly removed. That's not a recipe for success. You can rationalise it any way you like, but if the EU is going to impact on almost every part of an indviidual's life, then - no matter how benevolent it is - it needs to have public support. And that seems to be overlooked. Don't blame the British govt , the media or the people for this; it's a fact and it needs to be addressed.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 77, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 7 hours ago) and read 3550 times:

Quoting baguy (Reply 68):
Not exactly... neither England nor Scotland are EU member states in their own right - the UK is as a whole - so if the UK goes, the whole UK goes - Scotland couldn't stay.

Sure. And Cameron is only elected by the UK, but he seems to be talking about all EU citizens. Many citizens disagree with the EU, but each has its own reasons.

Quoting U2380 (Reply 74):
After all, we don't tend to pick up the burning tyre at the first sign of "bullshit of the highest quality"

I'm not sure what that means nor why it should be good, you think that democracy is voting every 5 years and shut up the rest of the time ?

Quoting kaitak (Reply 76):
Don't blame the British govt

What is the British govt proposing to help improve democracy in the EU ? "Take the powers back" will not help at all.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 78, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3528 times:

Quoting U2380 (Reply 74):
The frankly arrogant replies from a few people in this thread do very little to discourage the stereotypes so many in this country have about mainland Europeans.

I've stayed out of this for good reason, but this I do have to ask: Is there no way that such "arrogance" could simply be a reaction to the non-stop deceitful trashings that the EU receives from certain groups in the UK? You can only spread so many lies and insults about a thing before its supporters start returning fire.



Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 79, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 5 hours ago) and read 3508 times:

Indeed, and Brussels gave a very diplomatic answer (so diplomatic it's funny, praising Cameron !), but from what I hear some are saying "So Long, and Thanks for All the Fish" !


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 80, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3509 times:

Quoting aloges (Reply 78):
Is there no way that such "arrogance" could simply be a reaction to the non-stop deceitful trashings that the EU receives from certain groups in the UK? You can only spread so many lies and insults about a thing before its supporters start returning fire.

That seems very much 'over the top,' aloges?

If you scroll down to 'EU Budget' on here, you'll find that the UK makes the second largest net annual financial contribution to the EU budget every year. Only Germany pays more. And there's an odd slant on the figures - the UK's net contribution is near enough the same amount that is currently being paid out annually to Greece by the EU to keep the ailing Greek economy 'functioning' (if that's the right word).

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics

So it's inevitable that British public opinion tends to view the EU in an unfavourable light. On the face of it, it's costing them a great deal of money and there appear to be less and less benefits flowing back to the UK? What's more, given that the whole economy of the Eurozone is only just 'staggering along' at the moment, there's no room for doubt that the contributions required from the stronger economies (including the British one) are going to continue to increase in future years.

I've already stated my view on what should be done to put things right - the Euro should be phased out, so that countries like Greece, Spain, Portugal and whoever can take the only action that will restore their failing economies - namely, devalue their currencies.

I'm not at all sure that Cameron's approach is the right one - seems too 'long-drawn-out' to me. But there's no doubt at all that the EU is in deep trouble, with the wealthier countries having to dish out ever-increasing (and effectively non-returnable) subsidies to the poorer ones. If Cameron 'rocking the boat' causes the rest of the EU to set to work to devising and carrying through urgently-needed reforms, that (in my opinion) can only improve things for all members of the EU.

Indeed - given the mess the Eurozone is in at the moment - it seems entirely possible that, unless sensible reforms are carried out very soon, the whole EU may go broke and fall apart long before Cameron's 2017 'end-date'?

[Edited 2013-01-23 17:43:30]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 81, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3497 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 80):
That seems very much 'over the top,' aloges?

What's over the top is the way the EU is portrayed as a front for a Franco-German powergrab, a bottomless pit with no tangible benefits and, in short, the reason for all that's wrong in the UK. I like the place, quite a bit actually, but I can't stand the sort of tosh that the Daily Mail, The Sun et al keep spreading about Europe in general and the EU in particular.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 80):
On the face of it

That's the problem. Take things at face value and you'll never see them for what they really are.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 80):
Indeed - given the mess the Eurozone is in at the moment - it seems entirely possible that, unless sensible reforms are carried out very soon, the whole EU may go broke and fall apart long before Cameron's 2017 'end-date'?

It may seem entirely possible if you listen to people who wish for it.



Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 82, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3491 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting aloges (Reply 81):
but I can't stand the sort of tosh that the Daily Mail, The Sun et al keep spreading about Europe in general and the EU in particular.

I agree with an awful lot of what you say, but please don't judge us by these dreadful rags! I read them sometimes purely to be appalled and laugh at the ill-educated comments. Every country has their gutter press, and the gutter press in each country will always have their favourite, idiotic, particular axes to grind.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 83, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 4 hours ago) and read 3487 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 82):
please don't judge us by these dreadful rags!

Don't fear that I might.   The Axel Springer company is a sort of German equivalent, albeit less anti-EU.

At the end of the day, we should definitely be able to get along with or without a British EU membership. There's no reason why those of us who don't care much for the posturing of loudmouths should develop any sort of antipathy.



Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 84, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 5 days 3 hours ago) and read 3487 times:

Quoting aloges (Reply 81):
That's the problem. Take things at face value and you'll never see them for what they really are.
Quoting aloges (Reply 81):
It may seem entirely possible if you listen to people who wish for it.

Just 'one-liners,' aloges - not contributing anything to the discussion.

Do you agree that the Eurozone, in particular, is in very deep trouble? And that the trouble is 'structural,' not just 'frictional'?

"The unemployment rate across the eurozone hit a new all-time high of 11.8% in November, official figures have shown.

"This is a slight rise on 11.7% for the 17-nation region in October. The rate for the European Union as a whole in November was unchanged at 10.7%.

"Spain, which is mired in deep recession, again recorded the highest unemployment rate, coming in at 26.6%.

"More than 26 million people are now unemployed across the EU.

"For the eurozone, the number of people without work reached 18.8 million said Eurostat, the official European statistics agency said.

"Greece had the second-highest unemployment rate in November, at 20%.

"The youth unemployment rate was 24.4% in the eurozone, and 23.7% in the wider European Union. Youth unemployment - among people under 25 - was highest in Greece (57.6%), followed by Spain (56.5%)."


http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-20943292

And, assuming that you do agree that it's in trouble, what would you like to see being done about it?



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 85, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 20 hours ago) and read 3446 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 84):
Just 'one-liners,' aloges - not contributing anything to the discussion.

Reply #81 contains three paragraphs, the first of which contains thre lines (and a bit) of text. You choose to quote the other two which contain one line of text each and then accuse me of posting "just one-liners". That's patently absurd.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 84):
Do you agree that the Eurozone, in particular, is in very deep trouble?

No. We have no famines to deal with, no wars at our doorstep, currently no major natural disasters and no shortage of water or energy. That sort of thing would constitute "very deep trouble". Instead, we're compensating some of our farmers for leaving their fields unused, sending our troops overseas to "resolve" conflicts there, helping others cope with disasters in their countries and debating how we should ensure that affordable energy will remain available to everyone.

The financial crisis was caused by rampant speculation, an astonishing lack of oversight and corruption in e.g. Greece, not by the Euro. The idea that countries would benefit from devaluing their currencies fails to take into account that the foreign debt of these countries and their populations would still have to be paid off in Euros, Dollars, Pounds and so on; not to mention the inflation that a devaluation would cause. And with no Eurozone to support them, they would be completely at the mercy of the very financial markets that are the cause of the current problems.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 84):
And, assuming that you do agree that it's in trouble, what would you like to see being done about it?

I do agree that some countries are in trouble. What I'd like to be done about it, at first, is a shift of focus from the worst cases to the zone, or rather the EU, as a whole. Yes, there is Greece, but there's also Estonia. Yes, there is Portugal, but there's also Austria. A rational discussion would focus on more than just doomsday scenarios.



Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9376 posts, RR: 29
Reply 86, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 19 hours ago) and read 3433 times:

Normally, the English language is better suited for puns than the German language, with a few exceptions like "der Morgen graut/dem Morgen graut" where one letter makes the whole difference. The German readers will know which sketch I mean. (google "Iris Berben/Dieter Krebs, der Morgen)

But, the FAZ hat a picture on the front page today showing the white cliffs and the channel titled with three words

"Dover geht's nicht"


Roughly translated "How stupid can you get"

Made my day today.  



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 87, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 18 hours ago) and read 3389 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 86):
"Dover geht's nicht"

Yep, this sums it up.



Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlineLH7478i From Germany, joined Jan 2012, 56 posts, RR: 0
Reply 88, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3372 times:

On a side note, what would happen to Ireland if the UK left? From what I know the UK is the biggest trade-partner from Ireland. What would change tariff-wise ?

I really hope the UK stays in, but like Joschka Fischer said, "Not at any cost".



A319, A320, A321, A333, A346, B733, B735, B73G, B738, B744, B748, B757, B767, CRJ200, CRJ700, CRJ900, EMB135, EMB145, E1
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9376 posts, RR: 29
Reply 89, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 17 hours ago) and read 3348 times:

Nothing would happen to Ireland they would stay in the EU.

The question is, what happens to the UK as a whole, would Scotland, Northern OIreland and Wales remain? The Uk and its parts could opt to become an EFTA member, joining Norway, Iceland, Switzerland and Liechtenstein. If the UK opts to keep the same customs regime as the rest of Europe (minus Switzerland and Liechtenstein) trucks could transit England on their way to Ireland. there would be no border controls, as there are no duties anyhow, it is all about collecting the VAT and that is done differently, by monthly statements.

Those not involved in business will notice that when ordering data protection, you pay VAT online as a private customer, as a business you quote your VAT number and get billed zero VAT.

Norway, not a EU member is a Schengen member, the UK as a EU member is not, hence border patrols will remain, but for EU citizens it just a short stop showing the ID.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 90, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3339 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting LH7478i (Reply 88):
I really hope the UK stays in, but like Joschka Fischer said, "Not at any cost".

It is at least reassuring that on the whole our European partners seem to want us in rather than out.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 91, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3330 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 86):
Roughly translated "How stupid can you get"

I know it's hard to explain double meanings, but I know "geht's nicht" is translated as "doesn't go" and is used widely for something that isn't workable. Does Dover have another meaning in German, other than the Cliffs of Dover? I know the cliff is going nowhere, so is the joke that UK says it might be leaving the EU yet Dover is going nowhere? I'm not sure then how we'd read this as "How stupid can you get?" unless it's a colloquialism to equate the belief that the cliffs could move to incredible stupidity.

Of course I feel stupid for asking!  
Quoting aloges (Reply 85):
The financial crisis was caused by rampant speculation, an astonishing lack of oversight and corruption in e.g. Greece, not by the Euro.

I suppose, but it seems to me that part of the problem was that no one really explained to the average citizen how their life's savings in DE could be undermined by the Greek government not paying its bills, and if this was more broadly understood, there would not have been the same amount of popular support for the Euro.

Put bluntly, many northern Europeans would not have joined an agreement that relied on the southern Europeans to not be corrupt and to not live beyond their means. All they were hearing was how convenient it would be to not have to change money when traveling, yada yada. Meanwhile, indeed, the much more knowledgeable speculators were having a field day, knowing they could get bonds at high interest from Greece and rely on Germany to pay them off.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlinestealthz From Australia, joined Feb 2005, 5696 posts, RR: 44
Reply 92, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3321 times:
Support Airliners.net - become a First Class Member!

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 80):
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/European_Union_statistics

Interesting numbers there,,, you Brits,French and Germans having a pissing contest for who contributes most... Luxembourg TAKES almost 2 MILLION Euro per person per year... time to nuke that tax haven!!



If your camera sends text messages, that could explain why your photos are rubbish!
User currently offlineoldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 2091 posts, RR: 4
Reply 93, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3317 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
Does Dover have another meaning in German, other than the Cliffs of Dover?

It's the German word "doofer", which is pronounced nearly similar to "Dover".

It means: more stupid.

So "Dover geht's nicht" can be translated as: "It doesn't go more stupid" or better "It couldn't be more stupid"

[Edited 2013-01-24 06:32:43]


Wer nichts weiss muss alles glauben
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 94, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 16 hours ago) and read 3313 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
Does Dover have another meaning in German, other than the Cliffs of Dover?

It's a play on "doofer", the comparative form of "doof" which is "stupid" or "daft" in English. "Geht's nicht" could be translated as "it doesn't get", so my translation of the pun is "It doesn't get more stupid."

Quoting stealthz (Reply 92):
Luxembourg TAKES almost 2 MILLION Euro per person per year... time to nuke that tax haven!!

Your number are slightly of... factor 1000, to be exact.  Wink

Anyway, this is another case of taking things at face value and hence not seeing them for what they really are. There's a large number of EU institutions based in Luxembourg, all of which are financed by the EU. Since the economy of Luxembourg is rather small and so are its contributions to the EU budget, those contributions are far outweighed by the money the EU sends to Luxembourg to pay for its employees and facilities.

[Edited 2013-01-24 06:48:10]


Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9376 posts, RR: 29
Reply 95, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3303 times:

Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
Does Dover have another meaning in German, other than the Cliffs of Dover?

Doof = stupid

Doofer = even more stupid

Dover = Doofer (pronounciation is the same)

word by word translation does not work, that's why I used "how stupid can you get"  

Very few puns indeed where 3 words in German replace 5 English words.

BTW, the old, honorable FAZ would not have dared to print such puns 10 years ago.

Quoting stealthz (Reply 92):
Luxembourg TAKES almost 2 MILLION Euro per person per year... time to nuke that tax haven!!

where did you get that figure from'Luxemburg hs a population of 450.000, and is the wealthiest per capita country in Europe minus Monaco which does not count. But 2 Mio per head would result in 900 billion € They are rich but not that rich.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlinealoges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8707 posts, RR: 42
Reply 96, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 15 hours ago) and read 3297 times:

Quoting PanHAM (Reply 95):
where did you get that figure from

He just miscalculated: € 953 360 989 received from the EU divided by 524 853 (the latest population estimate on Wikipedia) gives you € 1816 received from the EU per person per year - almost two thousand Euros, not "almost 2 MILLION Euro per person per year". Oops.   



Walk together, talk together all ye peoples of the earth. Then, and only then, shall ye have peace.
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 97, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 3267 times:

Quoting oldeuropean (Reply 93):
oldeuropean From Germany, joined May 2005, 1821 posts, RR: 4
Quoting aloges (Reply 94):
aloges From Germany, joined Jan 2006, 8157 posts, RR: 50
Quoting PanHAM (Reply 95):
PanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 7380 posts, RR: 26

Thanks for filling me in!

I love the German language, have picked up some in the past, hope to pick up more in the future!



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 98, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3206 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 84):
"Spain, which is mired in deep recession, again recorded the highest unemployment rate, coming in at 26.6%.

And yet it's not the prime minister of Spain that is talking about leaving the EU.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 84):
"Greece had the second-highest unemployment rate in November, at 20%.

And yet it's not the prime minister of Greece that is talking about leaving the EU.

Quoting Revelation (Reply 91):
Meanwhile, indeed, the much more knowledgeable speculators were having a field day, knowing they could get bonds at high interest from Greece and rely on Germany to pay them off.

Not really. Until the crisis the bonds of Greece were almost as low as those of Germany, which is why they were spending like drunken sailors, they had never had so much cheap money. That's really where the system/markets/rating agencies failed.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinelewis From Greece, joined Jul 1999, 3636 posts, RR: 5
Reply 99, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 3195 times:

TheBritish should be given a referendum as soon as possible. The year proposed is just too far away. I will not even attempt to discuss whether the UK should stay in or out. As long as the British are fully informed about the pros and cons, they should be the only ones to decide what their country does.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 98):
Not really. Until the crisis the bonds of Greece were almost as low as those of Germany, which is why they were spending like drunken sailors, they had never had so much cheap money. That's really where the system/markets/rating agencies failed.

While this may be true, I am pretty sure Revelation has a point here. The Greek rates were close to Germany only when the country introduced the Euro. Did something change in the productivity of the Greek economy overnight, deserving such cheap rates? Not really. It is hard to believe that knowledgeable people in the industry were not betting on Germany and other stronger countries covering for Greece when it would eventually run out of money. I don't just see it as a lack of due diligence, the people giving out all those loans simply cannot be that stupid. They knew what was coming and a lot of them have continuously profited from the situation that was allowed to develop.


User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 100, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 3186 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 98):
Until the crisis the bonds of Greece were almost as low as those of Germany, which is why they were spending like drunken sailors, they had never had so much cheap money. That's really where the system/markets/rating agencies failed.

Thanks for the info, but it doesn't change my main point that the average person didn't realize and weren't told what risk they were putting their money at by being a part of the Euro. Most people, including myself, don't have much of a grasp of high finance. It's pretty clear the speculators have a better grasp of high finance than do the lawmakers and the EU's finance officials, and the ratings agencies never seem to get blamed when they miss things.



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 101, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3168 times:

Well some manage to profit from any situation, but overall I don't know if Greece has been profitable, after all private entities had to forfeit 100 billions recently, with little hope to recover hundreds billions more.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineRevelation From United States of America, joined Feb 2005, 12545 posts, RR: 25
Reply 102, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3185 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 101):
Well some manage to profit from any situation, but overall I don't know if Greece has been profitable, after all private entities had to forfeit 100 billions recently, with little hope to recover hundreds billions more.

Another good point. Such an accounting is well beyond me, but it should be done, if nothing else to prove or disprove statements such as (but not only):

Quoting aloges (Reply 85):
The financial crisis was caused by rampant speculation, an astonishing lack of oversight and corruption in e.g. Greece, not by the Euro



Inspiration, move me brightly!
User currently offlineGDB From United Kingdom, joined May 2001, 13206 posts, RR: 77
Reply 103, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 3187 times:

Quoting aloges (Reply 81):
What's over the top is the way the EU is portrayed as a front for a Franco-German powergrab, a bottomless pit with no tangible benefits and, in short, the reason for all that's wrong in the UK. I like the place, quite a bit actually, but I can't stand the sort of tosh that the Daily Mail, The Sun et al keep spreading about Europe in general and the EU in particular.

While over many years they might help to shape attitudes, it does not seem to work so well at election time and their influence is diminishing, through a combination of new media and much more of their own grubby scandal and criminality being exposed to a mass audience.

Quoting lewis (Reply 99):
TheBritish should be given a referendum as soon as possible. The year proposed is just too far away. I will not even attempt to discuss whether the UK should stay in or out. As long as the British are fully informed about the pros and cons, they should be the only ones to decide what their country does.

As some of us have said, this is all about Cameron managing his party.
While he may have identified certain aspects of the EU that we don't like (and not just the British either), it does not seem much to risk a referendum on (and if what Cameron recommends voting wise loses, he's finished and he knows it).


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 104, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 3134 times:

Quoting lewis (Reply 99):
While this may be true, I am pretty sure Revelation has a point here. The Greek rates were close to Germany only when the country introduced the Euro. Did something change in the productivity of the Greek economy overnight, deserving such cheap rates? Not really. It is hard to believe that knowledgeable people in the industry were not betting on Germany and other stronger countries covering for Greece when it would eventually run out of money.

That's why I keep saying that the only longterm solution to the problem is to phase out the Euro, lewis.

The US dollar and the British pound are 'reserve currencies.' The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (both government-backed) guarantee them. And both those governments are 'sovereign' governments, so there is no effective limit to the financial resources available - both governments have in the past needed to resort to 'printing money' to ward off recessions, and have not hesitated to do so.

The Euro, of course, is theoretically backed by the European Central Bank, but it is not a government-backed 'sovereign currency' in the same sense. Trouble is, the market has, for many years, treated it as if it was one. Because of that, it's day-to-day value has been the same in all the Eurozone countries - and every country in the Zone can borrow it at more or less the same rate. The trouble was, according to this article, that the people who set up the Euro literally 'didn't bother' to set up any sort of 'who does what?' contingency plan:-

"Expulsion and secession - While the eurozone is open to all EU member states to join once they meet the criteria, the treaty is silent on the matter of states leaving the eurozone, neither prohibiting nor permitting it. Likewise there is no provision for a state to be expelled from the euro.[23] Some, however, including the Dutch government, favour such a provision being created in the event that a heavily indebted state in the eurozone refuses to comply with an EU economic reform policy.[24]

The benefits of leaving the euro would vary depending on the exact situations. If the replacement currency were expected to devalue, the state would experience a large scale exodus of money, whereas if the currency were expected to appreciate then more money would flow into the economy. Even so a rapidly appreciating currency would be detrimental to the country's exports."


http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Eurozone

So there is no 'system' under which countries like Greece can be required to pay higher interest rates to borrow Euros -or to 'rein in' their deficits. Effectively, the wealthier EU countries (nowadays almost solely Germany) are guaranteeing the (spiralling) debts of the poorer ones. Which brings us to this:-

Quoting aloges (Reply 85):
The financial crisis was caused by rampant speculation, an astonishing lack of oversight and corruption in e.g. Greece, not by the Euro. The idea that countries would benefit from devaluing their currencies fails to take into account that the foreign debt of these countries and their populations would still have to be paid off in Euros, Dollars, Pounds and so on; not to mention the inflation that a devaluation would cause.

True as far as it goes, Aloges, but completely impracticable. There is no practical prospect of the weaker countries (not just Greece, there are at least half a dozen of them) ever being able to pay off their debts in Euros. Or in any other currencies, come to that. The only solution to the current problem will be the one followed in all other recessions, ever since the 1920s; to write off their debts, and have them adopt lower-valued currencies which will force them to 'live within their means,' importing only as much stuff as they can 'pay for' with their exports.

What it boils down to is that the Euro thing wasn't fully 'thought through' at the beginning - it was always a 'disaster waiting to happen.' And it will be largely up to the strongest economy in the Eurozone - Germany's - to stump up the cash to at least start on the long, painful process of putting things right.

[Edited 2013-01-24 19:00:18]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinepar13del From Bahamas, joined Dec 2005, 7202 posts, RR: 8
Reply 105, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 12 hours ago) and read 3035 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 104):

The US dollar and the British pound are 'reserve currencies.' The Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (both government-backed) guarantee them. And both those governments are 'sovereign' governments, so there is no effective limit to the financial resources available - both governments have in the past needed to resort to 'printing money' to ward off recessions, and have not hesitated to do so.
Quoting NAV20 (Reply 104):
The Euro, of course, is theoretically backed by the European Central Bank, but it is not a government-backed 'sovereign currency' in the same sense.

So essentially, developing countries in the Caribbean for example can follow the EU lead, set up a common currency without soverign backing and proceed to settle the financial problems that exist in the region?
Somehow I believe that the IMF, USA and EU would not allow any other region in the world to attempt something similar.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 106, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 16 hours ago) and read 2939 times:

Quoting par13del (Reply 105):
Somehow I believe that the IMF, USA and EU would not allow any other region in the world to attempt something similar.

Not, in my view, a matter of whether it would be 'allowed,' par13del. Fact is, any such arrangement, among 14 countries with vast differences in terms of economic 'clout,' is just plain stupid.

For quite a long period, many countries in the British Commonwealth had the 'pound' as their currency. But the Australian pound, or the New Zealand pound, or whatever, weren't 'tied' to the UK pound; they established their own value, in line with market trends.

That's all that's needed really - overprint Euro notes as German, Dutch, Greek, Spanish, Portuguese, or whatever 'Euros.' As soon as that is done, each country's currency could henceforward be revalued or devalued by the market, as conditions dictate.

That really is all it would take to solve the whole 'Eurozone Crisis.' Within a week or so........



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 107, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 14 hours ago) and read 2925 times:

Well you have the opposite example with the CFA Franc which is tied to the euro (and before the French Franc).


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 108, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 12 hours ago) and read 2889 times:

Are we back at that 'sovereign' currency myth?

In today's world, ALL money is fiat money, meaning its just paper guaranteed by a government or even better, by several governments, like in case of the euro.

With the ECB finally taking the long due decision to stand behind the euro in the same way that the Fed stands behind the dollar for instance, it should be no surprise confidence in the euro came back at light speed and it is one of the strongest currencies in the world once again.

BTW- may I point out this topic is about the desire of the UK to have a referendum, NOT about opinions on any currency?

[Edited 2013-01-26 10:39:33]

User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 109, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 9 hours ago) and read 2861 times:

Michel Rocard, minister and then Prime Minister during Thatcher's administration, is hoping for a Brixit, that way the EU can move on.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 110, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 2 days 4 hours ago) and read 2822 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 108):
BTW- may I point out this topic is about the desire of the UK to have a referendum, NOT about opinions on any currency?

The two issues are inevitably inter-mingled, sabenapilot. Cameron, in my view, has pulled off a pretty good 'political coup' by advocating seeking changes and a subsequent referendum, rather than outright withdrawal. That will draw the teeth of the opposition parties, which would otherwise likely have had a free run to power in 2015 just by campaigning on a non-specific anti-EU ticket. And there are already signs that the 'EU Government' - basically Angela Merkel and Hollande - is prepared to give some ground:-

"EU leaders seem ready to consider how to accommodate the British, even if there is a gap between the maximum they can offer and the minimum Mr Cameron can accept.

"France seems in two minds. Some, such as Michel Rocard, a former Socialist prime minister, have said France should take advantage of a possible “Brixit”. Yet the government values Britain’s presence in the EU, particularly when it comes to defence and foreign policy. Even Mr Fabius speaks warmly of British logistical support for the French operation in Mali.

"The French president, François Hollande, told his cabinet that he wished “the UK to remain at the heart of the European Union.” His finance minister, Pierre Moscovici, said that “the European spirit is also to respect diversity.” The French are grudgingly prepared to give some ground, however symbolic.

"In Berlin, where France and Germany have just marked the 50th anniversary of the Elysée treaty (see article), there has long been an affinity with Britain on economic matters. This may explain why the signals of accommodation were stronger than in Paris. “One has to find fair compromises. In this context we are ready to talk about Britain’s wishes,” said Chancellor Angela Merkel."


http://www.economist.com/news/europe...ns-european-demands-cameron-coming

But Cameron's advocacy of 'less European regulation' is certain to 'catch the eye' of the leaders of the poorer countries in the Eurozone - starting with Greece, which (as is now revealed by this interview with the guy who runs the 'European Stability Mechanism') is now facing years of severe austerity, imposed by Brussels/Berlin:-

"Regling: In my opinion, the euro was never in danger. But of course everything is not alright. People in southern Europe are suffering. In Greece, civil servants and pensioners have seen their monthly earnings drop by 40 percent. But, as tough as these cuts may be, the situation will eventually improve, as the experience of the IMF shows.

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: IMF chief economist Olivier Blanchard recently admitted that he had underestimated the negative repercussions of the austerity programs.

"Regling: Yes, but he didn't say they could have been avoided.

"SPIEGEL ONLINE: So there hasn't been too much austerity?

"Regling: No. Of course it can be a good idea to relax austerity programs, as has now happened. But when a country has as much debt as Greece does, there's going to be a lot of suffering. There's no way around it."


http://www.spiegel.de/international/...spects-for-euro-zone-a-879725.html



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 111, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 21 hours ago) and read 2801 times:

The 2 issues are NOT intermingled at all, you simply drag the euro into every topic where Europe is being discussed and comment on the currency rather than on the referendum itself.

This topic is about the referendum the UK PM wants to hold on leaving or staying within the EU; The Euro has as much to do with that as schengen or in fact UEFA.

Care to comment what would be any acceptable "better deal" for instance?
Whether is should apply only for the UK or also for others?
What the UK would be willing to offer in turn, like for instance the go ahead for others to create a federal core?
Oh, and for once try to leave any reference to the currency out of your reply, thank you.

My take is there won't be a referendum, because Cameron is going to lose the elections in 2 years time and that's a pitty because I would have loved to see the UK out of Europe completely (so also without access to our common market of course), so the EU can move ahead.


User currently offlinevc10 From United Kingdom, joined Nov 2001, 1411 posts, RR: 15
Reply 112, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 19 hours ago) and read 2789 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 111):

My take is there won't be a referendum, because Cameron is going to lose the elections in 2 years time and that's a pitty because I would have loved to see the UK out of Europe completely (so also without access to our common market of course), so the EU can move ahead.

So this is the threat that unless the UK remains in the EU then we will denied the EU markets

Well just a couple of points

1] The UK is a net importer from the other EU countries so the EU's loss wold be greater

2] Take for example car sales to the UK from EU counties in 2011

Audi----------------------- 99900
BMW--------------------- 99700
Mercedes Benz----------71000
VW-------------------------155500 Total German Sales-- 426100

Fiat---------------------------37000
Alfa----------------------------10200 Total Italian sales-- 47200

Citreon-----------------------59600
Peugeot---------------------84150
Renault----------------------59700 Total Frenc sales-- 203450

Total sales from EU countries for 2011----------------------- 676750

This does not include
Skoda ---------------39241
Vauxhall/Opel-----204000 [ some of which is built in the UK]
Seat-------------------?

So you can see if the EU were to impose import sanctions against UK exports then I assume the UK would do similar and although there are some good car manufacturers listed above there are plenty of other choices in the world.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 113, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2761 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 111):
The 2 issues are NOT intermingled at all, you simply drag the euro into every topic where Europe is being discussed and comment on the currency rather than on the referendum itself.

This topic is about the referendum the UK PM wants to hold on leaving or staying within the EU; The Euro has as much to do with that as schengen or in fact UEFA.

Maybe I just have to quote an excerpt from Cameron's speech, sabenapilot. He put the Eurozone (and its rapidly-growing division into rich countries and poor ones) 'front and centre' at the very beginning of his talk. Basically saying that unless the problems of the single currency are addressed, Europe-wide industry and trade (not just trade within the Eurozone) is going to be severely affected:-

"That is why I am here today: to acknowledge the nature of the challenges we face. To set out how I believe the European Union should respond to them. And to explain what I want to achieve for Britain and its place within the European Union.

"Let me start with the nature of the challenges we face.

"First, the eurozone.

"The future shape of Europe is being forged. There are some serious questions that will define the future of the European Union – and the future of every country within it.

"The union is changing to help fix the currency – and that has profound implications for all of us, whether we are in the single currency or not.

"Britain is not in the single currency, and we're not going to be. But we all need the eurozone to have the right governance and structures to secure a successful currency for the long term.

"And those of us outside the eurozone also need certain safeguards to ensure, for example, that our access to the single market is not in any way compromised.

"And it's right we begin to address these issues now.

"Second, while there are some countries within the EU which are doing pretty well, taken as a whole, Europe's share of world output is projected to fall by almost a third in the next two decades. This is the competitiveness challenge – and much of our weakness in meeting it is self-inflicted."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/politics/2...david-cameron-eu-speech-referendum



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinePanHAM From Germany, joined May 2005, 9376 posts, RR: 29
Reply 114, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 18 hours ago) and read 2759 times:

Quoting vc10 (Reply 112):
So this is the threat that unless the UK remains in the EU then we will denied the EU markets

Well just a couple of points

1] The UK is a net importer from the other EU countries so the EU's loss wold be greater

Wrong conclusion, I guess. Britain would rather become a member of EFTA if they lave the EU, it would possibly mleave the single market but still enjoy free trade. That is, free from duties. Germany and the other countries would still sell cars in the UK, as it does in China and the USA and the rest of the world.

Actually, Britain would not have a choice other than joining EFTA, with manufacturing, service industry and cross ownership of companies integrated in the single market on a broad level. Britain could not afford to get back to the old days when each shipment arriving from the EU had to be" cleared" just to collect VAT. The mechanism to handle that would most likely remain as they are today and that includes the transfer of funds.



E's passed on! That parrot is no more! He has ceased to be! E's expired and gone to meet 'is maker!
User currently offlinesabenapilot From Belgium, joined Feb 2000, 2714 posts, RR: 46
Reply 115, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2738 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 113):
Maybe I just have to quote an excerpt from Cameron's speech, sabenapilot. He put the Eurozone (and its rapidly-growing division into rich countries and poor ones) 'front and centre' at the very beginning of his talk. Basically saying that unless the problems of the single currency are addressed, Europe-wide industry and trade (not just trade within the Eurozone) is going to be severely affected:

The link between the eurozone and the referendum on the UK's continued membership of the EU is not holding any grounds, since the UK in not in the eurozone and it isn't required to join either: Cameron could have used just as well an UEFA corruption scandal as reason for a referendum on the EU, really. Just because several things have 'Euro(pe)' in their name, doesn't make them 'all the same', you know?

Besides, the solution to any of the problems of the eurozone is opposed to what Cameron wants: it's MORE European integration, not less, so by linking the demand for a sort of European devolution process to the progress on further consolidation of the eurozone, Cameron shows great faulty reasoning.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 116, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 4 hours ago) and read 2661 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 115):
Besides, the solution to any of the problems of the eurozone is opposed to what Cameron wants: it's MORE European integration, not less

Surely 'less' integration is an equally valid alternative solution, sabenapilot?

It didn't get a lot of publicity, but a 'rescue operation' for the poorer countries - based on the European Central Bank buying unlimited quantities of the poorer countries' bonds - was introduced back in September:-

"Mario Draghi, the president of the European Central Bank, has pushed through a controversial scheme to save the euro, trampling over German opposition.

"Stock markets on both sides of the Atlantic rallied strongly after the ECB announced that it was prepared to buy unlimited quantities of government bonds to help Europe's struggling periphery, as long as countries agreed to economic reform plans in return.

"At the same time, the ECB said that the economic outlook for the eurozone had deteriorated. It now expects the eurozone economy to shrink by 0.4% in 2012 and grow by 0.5% in 2013, while inflation rises to 2.6%.

"Draghi said the vote to start buying the bonds of crisis-hit states in unlimited amounts, in an attempt to bring governments' borrowing costs down, was "almost unanimous", with one exception.

"The scheme has faced furious opposition from German central bank chief Jens Weidmann, who argues that it is tantamount to printing money in order to pay off a country's debt, which is expressly forbidden by the ECB's mandate. He also fears the measures will fuel inflation, ease the pressure on overspending governments to get their finances in order and erode the ECB's independence."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...e-crisis-ecb-unlimited-bond-buying

The German objection was very sensible, in my opinion. The EU is dead set not just on providing unlimited financial support for the weaker economies, but also on forcing them to carry out severe austerity programmes. This means that not only will the poorer countries need limitless additional financial support for the foreseeable future - they will produce less and buy less. Which means that the wealthier EU countries - including Britain, even though it had no say in the decision - will have to pay yet more in to the EU, year by year.

Good article here which pretty well spells out what is going to happen:-

"The ECB's president brushed aside questions at his press conference about what he would do if Spain, for example, signed up to "strict and effective" conditions to trigger bond buying but then decided the conditions were too difficult to implement. In those circumstances, would the ECB really start selling Spanish bonds at a heavy loss? Gary Jenkins of Swordfish Research said this would be like the ECB putting a gun to its own head and pulling the trigger.

"A bigger problem is the economic thinking behind the plan. The Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development in Paris said on Thursday that Italy's economy will shrink by 2.4% this year. In Spain youth unemployment is more than 50%, the banks are tottering under the weight of bad debts from a bombed-out housing market, and private capital is leaving the country at an alarming rate. Greece's economy is 20% smaller than it was four years ago.

"Put simply, Greece is in depression, Spain on the brink and Italy heading that way.

"The "rescue" plan involves governments in Rome and Italy driving their economies deeper into depression to reduce the interest rates they pay on their borrowing. The ECB seems to think that the reason investors are giving Italy and Spain the cold shoulder is that they are not cutting hard enough, fast enough. Steeped in economic orthodoxy, Draghi makes George Osborne look like a paid-up member of the Maynard Keynes appreciation society.

"The reason investors demand high interest rates when they lend to Italy and Spain is their concern about the impact of permanent recession on public finances and banks. A rescue plan that has at its core more demand-destroying measures will do more harm than good."


http://www.guardian.co.uk/business/2...draghi-rescue-plan-euro?intcmp=239

I repeat - the only policy that will put things right is for the weaker countries to revert to their own currencies, which they can then devalue as necessary to restrain imports and increase exports, thereby restoring some sort of equilibrium to their respective economies.

[Edited 2013-01-27 18:32:11]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineME AVN FAN From Switzerland, joined May 2002, 13920 posts, RR: 25
Reply 117, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 1 day 3 hours ago) and read 2657 times:

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 57):
Quoting ME AVN FAN (Reply 56):
And in many respects, Switzerland as a NON EU member is more closely integrated than the UK

In what respect? Schengen, and.....oh.....that would be about it I guess.

Dublin-Agreement, ECAC, Eurovision, Carnet-ATA -- etc
-- to state it clearly, the Dublin agreement for some reasons works against me personally but I support if totally nevertheless and voted in favour of it twice. You have to put the interests of the nation above your personal ones at times


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 118, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 2637 times:

From what I heard the UK could still have access to the EU market, it would just have to pay for it. Several billions euros a year. Less than the current contribution, but not nothing.

NAV20 : the main problem of the southern European countries is their debt and it's not going to disappear if they leave the euro, so there is no point. The "diktats" Cameron is describing are the exact same he himself imposed on Britain, or is there no austerity there ? No cuts everywhere ? No double or triple dip recession ?

As for the actions of the ECB, as we have seen there was the usual outrage from some in Germany, but nothing happened, except the "markets" are happy.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 119, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 2589 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 118):
NAV20 : the main problem of the southern European countries is their debt and it's not going to disappear if they leave the euro, so there is no point.

Have cordially to disagree, Aesma. Debts have 'disappeared' often enough in the past - once it became abundantly clear that there was no chance on Earth of the failed economies of the countries concerned ever being able to repay them. The 'Eurocrats' probably still have to learn that lesson. I guess they're just plain younger than I am, and didn't grow up (and get their economics degrees) in the aftermath of WW2, as I did........  

Places like Greece (and also Spain and Portugal, and probably Italy, Ireland etc.) just aren't going to develop vibrant, efficient, fast-growing, competitive economies overnight! Or in the next ten years, for that matter. Debts already accumulated can never be repaid - they will have eventually to be 'forgiven,' written off, whether or not the countries concerned stay with the Euro.

But if the countries concerned revert to their own currencies, which they can devalue as required, that will at least 'stop the bleeding' and offer quite a good chance of some sort of relative equilibrium developing over the next few years............

[Edited 2013-01-28 06:40:21]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineJJJ From Spain, joined May 2006, 1833 posts, RR: 1
Reply 120, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 12 hours ago) and read 2543 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 119):
But if the countries concerned revert to their own currencies, which they can devalue as required, that will at least 'stop the bleeding' and offer quite a good chance of some sort of relative equilibrium developing over the next few years............

You can devaluate your currency as much as you want, but your debts are still denominated in euro/whatever other hard currency you want to use.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 121, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2478 times:

Quoting JJJ (Reply 120):
but your debts are still denominated in euro/whatever other hard currency you want to use.

If they revert to their old currencies, JJJ, any repayments would be in that currency. Though at the appropriate rate vis a' vis the Euro, of course. But the question is academic, anyway - all the southern countries are broke, and their economies are weak, there is no way any of them are going to be able to repay more than a fraction of the money they owe:-

"Europe's debts soared from the EU-mandated limits of 60 percent of gross domestic product following the introduction of the euro in 1999, as countries from Spain to Ireland indulged in massive borrowing at very low rates of interest.

"A divide now exists between France and Germany on the one hand, where debt fell slightly in the third quarter from the second, and the economies of Ireland, Greece, Portugal, Spain and Italy, whose debt-to-GDP ratio rose in the July-September period.

"Debt in Ireland, where a burst real estate bubble forced the country into an international bailout, reached 117 percent of economic output in the quarter, while the number was 127 percent in Italy. Spain saw its burden tick up to 77 percent of GDP, and the Commission sees it reaching 97 percent in 2014.

"Greece's debt rose to 153 percent of GDP in the quarter and will reach 189 percent in 2014, although a deal struck by euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund in November aims to take it down to 124 percent by 2020.

"Rising debt is particularly worrying for Italy and Spain, the euro zone's third- and fourth-largest economies, which are in recession and need growth to cut debt and unemployment."


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/...zone-economy-idUSBRE90M0M420130123

Indeed, just in the last few minutes, a new factor has cropped up - according to the French employment minister, France is broke as well:-

"Socialist France is 'totally bankrupt', a senior government minister admitted yesterday.

"Michel Sapin, who is in charge of the employment ministry in Paris, made it clear that his government's tax-and-spend policies are just not working.

"Just half a year since his party came to power, Mr Sapin told radio listeners: 'There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state.

'That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective.'

"While the admission was unlikely to have been intentional, it highlighted huge concern at President Francois Hollande's handling of the economy."


Read more: http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/arti...-spend-policies.html#ixzz2JMQ6mHxY
Follow us: @MailOnline on Twitter | DailyMail on Facebook

[Edited 2013-01-29 03:18:08]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineJJJ From Spain, joined May 2006, 1833 posts, RR: 1
Reply 122, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 2471 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 121):
If they revert to their old currencies, JJJ, any repayments would be in that currency. But the question is academic, anyway - all the southern countries are broke, and their economies are weak, there is no way any of them are going to be able to repay more than a fraction of the money they owe:-

Only what you have borrowed in your own country. As it comes, most of the financing came from outside, in euro, so they will still be denominated in euro. No serious debtor will accept being paid in neo-drachmas.

Go ask the Argentines if you don't believe me.

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 121):
"Debt in Ireland, where a burst real estate bubble forced the country into an international bailout, reached 117 percent of economic output in the quarter, while the number was 127 percent in Italy. Spain saw its burden tick up to 77 percent of GDP, and the Commission sees it reaching 97 percent in 2014.

Whereas UK debt is close to 90%, and the US is over the 100% mark already.


User currently offlineOzGlobal From France, joined Nov 2004, 2721 posts, RR: 4
Reply 123, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2463 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 121):

"Socialist France is 'totally bankrupt', a senior government minister admitted yesterday.

France has its issues, absolutely. However, you don't do much for your argument with sources like "the Daily Mail". They make stuff up and misquote. You are strangely silent on the numbers for the UK: Debt of 90% of GDP, Triple dip recession, unemployment, contracting economy....?? Very selective argumentation indeed.



When all's said and done, there'll be more said than done.
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 124, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 18 hours ago) and read 2456 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 123):
However, you don't do much for your argument with sources like "the Daily Mail". They make stuff up and misquote.

Oddly enough, I heard the quote first on our own ABC Newsradio station, OzGlobal. Googled Sapin and found the quote I linked to. So I'm sure that both news sources quoted Sapin accurately; especially the word 'bankrupt.' He's 'retracting' like mad now, of course, says he was being 'ironic.'  

"French Labor Minister Michel Sapin is finding himself in the hot seat.

"Unions representing workers at companies including Arcelor Mittal, Credit Agricole SA, Faurecia SA, PSA Peugeot Citroen (UG), Sanofi, Valeo SA and several others are gathering in front of his ministry this afternoon to protest thousands of job cuts across France, leaving the country with jobless claims at the highest in 15 years.

"The demonstrations come just days after Sapin’s remarks in a radio interview on Jan. 27 that France was “totally bankrupt” set off a storm. Asked on Radio J about Former Prime Minister Francois Fillon's comment in September 2007 that France was a “bankrupt state,” Sapin said, “But it’s a totally bankrupt state,” adding “that’s the reason we have to put deficit- reductions programs in place.” The minister immediately took back the statement, saying he was being 'ironic.'”
 http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2013-0...rotests-put-sapin-in-hot-seat.html

Fact remains, though, that virtually all the Eurozone countries are raising taxes and cutting spending - and that the weaker ones are being required to carry out drastic austerity programmes. Those policies, continent-wide, can only result in more unemployment, less trade, increased poverty.........?

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 123):
You are strangely silent on the numbers for the UK

Still very fond of the UK, but no fan of the way they run their economy. Why do you think I brought my family here all those years ago?  

My central point is - and has always been - that the Europe-wide adoption of the Euro 'flew in the face' of conventional economic theory - that currencies should be 'sovereign.' And that it will go on doing untold harm to the security and prosperity of all the people in Europe (even including the non-Euro members) until it is phased out.

[Edited 2013-01-29 04:45:09]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 125, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 2400 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 124):
Asked on Radio J about Former Prime Minister Francois Fillon's comment in September 2007 that France was a “bankrupt state,” Sapin said, “But it’s a totally bankrupt state,” adding “that’s the reason we have to put deficit- reductions programs in place.” The minister immediately took back the statement, saying he was being 'ironic.'”

In context it makes all the difference. Sapin (an ironic name itself, in French) was indeed taking a jab at his predecessors, because in 2007 Fillon admitted the difficult state of the country's finances while at the same time applying his neoliberal agenda of cutting taxes, especially on the rich. Sapin is saying that his government has taken the situation seriously and has made the necessary changes. The raising of taxes is already done and they should not raise further. There is no great growth in sight but no great recession either, we can expect a deficit of 3 to 3,5% in 2013, a number the US can only dream of.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineU2380 From United Kingdom, joined Dec 2010, 325 posts, RR: 0
Reply 126, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 12 hours ago) and read 2379 times:

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 123):
Triple dip recession

We're not in one yet.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 123):
unemployment

Going down.

Quoting OzGlobal (Reply 123):
contracting economy.

It flat-lined last year

Come back in a few months time, all of those things are almost certain to occur within the first quarter. Just not yet  


User currently offlineDano1977 From British Indian Ocean Territory, joined Jun 2008, 499 posts, RR: 0
Reply 127, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 2350 times:

Quoting sabenapilot (Reply 111):

Personally with that attitude, isn't it no wonder we still have the island mentality and view everyone else as Johnny Foreigner.

Cameron has the great merit of being on the right side of the argument, in pointing out the changes Europe needs to make in order to thrive. I suspect that Cameron will get at least one good shot at it. I also suspect that European partners will play ball given that, if we British were to leave, the single market would shrink by 15 per cent, with £261.4bn in annual European exports facing extra costs; the EU budget would be some €14bn light; and Germany, the Netherlands and Finland (who write the cheques) will be awfully alone in that Northern bloc.

Without the UK in the EU, the Northern, liberal bloc would lose its blocking minority in the Council of Ministers, radically tipping the balance of power in favour of the Mediterranean – more protectionist – bloc. For example, if the UK left, Germany could find it very difficult to block proposals for “reciprocity” to be included as a tenet of EU trade policy – which could seriously hurt its exports.

Europe needs to go back and do what it does best, facilitate trade, internally and externally. It needs to stop with the one size fits all nonsense.

The UK, along with France, is one of the EU’s two major military powers and has a global network of diplomatic contacts. The UK accounts for 24% of all EU spending on defence, more than any other member state.


Europe needs Britain, and as much as it loathes me to say it... We need Europe.



Children should only be allowed on aircraft if 1. Muzzled and heavily sedated 2. Go as freight
User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 128, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 2303 times:

Fascinating situation developing in France. It's becoming pretty clear that M. Sapin meant exactly what he said - for which he earns my respect. But that, since then, the French Government media managers have been desperately trying to 'sell' the idea that he didn't really mean it........

"FRANCE stoked huge fears over the Eurozone crisis yesterday — as a senior politician announced: “We are broke.”

Jobs minister Michael Sapin stunned leaders by declaring the country was “totally bankrupt”.

"He said: “There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state.” Colleagues desperately tried to play down his outburst, saying he only meant to say French debts were “worrying”.

"But a newspaper poll showed that 80 per cent of the population agreed with him.

"And it stirred growing fears that France is the country that could rip the single currency apart with its go-slow economy and mounting debts.

"The crisis came as shares on the London stock market soared again — to their highest level since May 2008.

"The FTSE 100 closed at just under 6340 points and, in only one month, the value of Britain’s biggest companies has gone up by £111billion.

"David Buik, analyst at BGC Partners, said: “Stock markets have declared independence from economic reality!”

"France is already reeling from an exodus of wealthy individuals, such as actor Gerard Depardieu, following plans for a 75 per cent super-tax."


(Love the headline on this story - "French Toast"......... Fleet Street at its best - or should I say worst...... )

Read more: http://www.thesun.co.uk/sol/homepage...try-is-bankrupt.html#ixzz2JSht0TET



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlinelewis From Greece, joined Jul 1999, 3636 posts, RR: 5
Reply 129, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 2267 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 128):
Fascinating situation developing in France. It's becoming pretty clear that M. Sapin meant exactly what he said - for which he earns my respect.

I'm sorry but this action is far from respectful. He should have first consulted his government before making such public statements, which may cause more damage to the French economy than the troubles it may already be in.


User currently offlineOA260 From Ireland, joined Nov 2006, 26977 posts, RR: 57
Reply 130, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 9 hours ago) and read 2248 times:

Quoting Dano1977 (Reply 127):
Personally with that attitude, isn't it no wonder we still have the island mentality and view everyone else as Johnny Foreigner.

+1 its arrogance like that which makes the British public anti EU and I think fuels the flames ! One thing for sure is the Irish are quite worried about a UK exit. Its creates huge problems for the Irish if it happened.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 131, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2231 times:

Quoting lewis (Reply 129):
I'm sorry but this action is far from respectful. He should have first consulted his government before making such public statements, which may cause more damage to the French economy than the troubles it may already be in.

He said it on a radio I never heard of. Apparently Radio J is a part-time radio sharing its frequency with three others, destined to the Jewish community in Paris.

As I said elsewhere this is a story in the UK, not in France.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinelewis From Greece, joined Jul 1999, 3636 posts, RR: 5
Reply 132, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 8 hours ago) and read 2226 times:

Quoting Aesma (Reply 131):

He said it on a radio I never heard of. Apparently Radio J is a part-time radio sharing its frequency with three others, destined to the Jewish community in Paris.

Still though, such comments can create a lot of damage to the country due to the markets reacting. Not a very smart move from a politician. We did have a lot of similar brain farts from the Greek government as well.


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 133, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 1 hour ago) and read 2196 times:

Quoting lewis (Reply 129):
I'm sorry but this action is far from respectful. He should have first consulted his government before making such public statements
Quoting lewis (Reply 132):
such comments can create a lot of damage to the country due to the markets reacting. Not a very smart move from a politician.

I know that you don't mean it that way, mate, but aren't you basically saying that all politicians should henceforward ask for permission from their party leaders before telling the truth? And, it follows, either say nothing or tell outright lies if they are instructed to do so?  

Interesting press item here. The reason why the Euro is staging a bit of a 'recovery' at the moment is that the European Central Bank is buying bonds (that is, yet more debts) issued by all the weaker Eurozone countries as if there were no tomorrow. But it looks as if the only country that still has the financial resources to go on funding the ECB's operations - Germany - is beginning to worry about the risks - well, more like 'certainties' - it is facing by doing so. Germany will just end up guaranteeing the debts of pretty well every other country in the Eurozone, except possibly the Netherlands:-

"BERLIN: Euro zone countries risk ending up guaranteeing each others' debt without any formal decisions to do so, European Central Bank Governing Council member Jens Weidmann said on Wednesday.

"An all-inclusive explicit collective guarantee of debt is no longer on the agenda, but the collective risks from - hopefully only temporary - financial aid and central bank special measures have reached substantial heights," Weidmann, who also heads the German Bundesbank, said in the text of a speech to be given at an automotive industry event.

"Were these risks to remain at current levels or even rise, they could hollow out the stability culture in a similar fashion to an explicit collectivisation of debt."

"The Bundesbank chief has been a vocal critic of the ECB's decision to unveil a new government bond-purchase programme.

"Weidmann also rejected arguments that Germany should raise wages in a show of solidarity towards struggling euro zone members. He said this would only hurt the German economy in the long term, and help no one."


http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/...-weidmann/articleshow/18264034.cms

[Edited 2013-01-30 20:59:32]


"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6651 posts, RR: 11
Reply 134, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 5 days ago) and read 2177 times:

It's not necessarily new debt, at least most of it is not new debt, it's old debt that needs refinancing. And the ECB's move has had the intended effect, lowering the rate of that debt. There is a risk but in my opinion (and the opinion of the ECB) it's less than doing nothing and having Spain or Italy default.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinelewis From Greece, joined Jul 1999, 3636 posts, RR: 5
Reply 135, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 2111 times:

Quoting NAV20 (Reply 133):
I know that you don't mean it that way, mate, but aren't you basically saying that all politicians should henceforward ask for permission from their party leaders before telling the truth?

Not exactly. There are some things that should not be shouted out like that because they can cause panic. First of all, he is the minister of labour, not the Finance Minister, this it is not his job to comment on the matter. Second, by saying that in public, he is basically equating France's Financial state to bankruptcy. That is a very bold statement to be made and it can have very serious consequences for his country.

Do you suggest that any member of any government should be allowed to state whatever they want, whether it is the truth or a lie, whether it is on Finances, Foreign Policy or National Defense matters, without first consulting the head of the government?


User currently offlineNAV20 From Australia, joined Nov 2003, 9909 posts, RR: 35
Reply 136, posted (1 year 7 months 2 weeks 2 days 18 hours ago) and read 2000 times:

Quoting lewis (Reply 135):
Do you suggest that any member of any government should be allowed to state whatever they want, whether it is the truth or a lie, whether it is on Finances, Foreign Policy or National Defense matters, without first consulting the head of the government?

I see what you mean, lewis, but in 'real life' it simply isn't possible for politics to work like that. Ministers and such, day by day, have to go all over the place and talk to all sorts of people on all sorts of subjects. If you look closely at what M. Sapin actually said, it was:-

"Employment secretary Michel Sapin said cuts were needed to put the damaged economy back on track.

"There is a state but it is a totally bankrupt state,’ he said.

"That is why we had to put a deficit reduction plan in place, and nothing should make us turn away from that objective."


So, as far as I can see, he was 'under attack' from the press about the government's austerity measures (and, probably, his own inability to help the unemployed more). And he was basically saying that the previous government had just let things deteriorate, and that he and his colleagues could not do much about it until they had reduced the deficit to the point where they had some cash available even to start doing what will eventually need to be done.



"Once you have flown, you will walk the earth with your eyes turned skywards.." - Leonardo da Vinci
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
What Is At The Heart Of The EU Economic Rift? posted Mon Jan 18 2010 13:02:31 by Derico
Haiti: What's The Future? posted Thu Jan 14 2010 09:47:36 by DocLightning
So What's Right In Your Life And The World? posted Tue Jan 27 2009 17:15:44 by N867DA
Mikhail Saakashvili And The EU Flag Behind Him posted Sun Aug 10 2008 08:42:16 by SeansasLCY
What's The Difference Between Coke Zero And Light? posted Sun Jul 15 2007 18:46:32 by F.pier
What's The Future Role Of Art In Society? posted Sun Jul 9 2006 07:15:08 by CastleIsland
What Do Fetuses And The Aids Virus Share? posted Sat Dec 17 2005 17:09:11 by PROSA
France And The EU Constitution posted Thu Mar 31 2005 21:17:03 by UH60FtRucker
What Does The World Think Of Britain / The British posted Thu May 27 2004 16:45:50 by Worldoftui
X-Mas And 03= Over, What's On The Agenda For 04? posted Thu Jan 1 2004 03:28:20 by Jkw777