Sponsor Message:
Non Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
I, Robot Or Rise Of The Machine?  
User currently offlinevarigb707 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 8 months 16 hours ago) and read 2199 times:

Well, humans maybe soon be replaced by robots!!! They will work more efficiently with little cost. Now the questions is : what we, poor sap humans , will do????

http://www.theatlantic.com/business/...rs-from-the-rise-of-robots/267135/


19 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlinefrancoflier From France, joined Oct 2001, 3766 posts, RR: 11
Reply 1, posted (1 year 8 months 10 hours ago) and read 2125 times:

On a global level, the economy is based on businesses working to produce goods and services and sell it to people.

Of course, that rely on the average purchasing power of the population, which, if you replace all actives with robots, will decrease to the point that the companies making goods and services with said robots will see overall revenue decrease.

There is a place for automation in this world, but there is a regulation mechanism. The human is at the base of our economic system and is an irreplaceable part of it.
Henry Ford had understood that.

That is, of course, until the robot uprising in which they turn us all into slaves.



Looks like I picked the wrong week to quit posting...
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6667 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 8 months 9 hours ago) and read 2110 times:

I have been thinking for a long time that some day work will be optional, and the world leader will probably be a computer. The trick is to give it enough empathy.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 2048 times:

Quoting francoflier (Reply 1):
will see overall revenue decrease.

That is exactly what is happening.

Quoting francoflier (Reply 1):
The human is at the base of our economic system and is an irreplaceable part of it.

Once we go past a certain point it will be too late. The "cornucopians" of course see a rosy future of abundance... I see one of tremendous inequality and turbulence.

The BIG problem is that automation is taking over by stealth... the vast majority of the population either don't realize it or cannot comprehend it. They won't even be able to flip burgers coz robots will be doing that too.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21467 posts, RR: 53
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 16 hours ago) and read 2037 times:

Human labour has been substituted with machines for centuries by now. That is nothing new at all and it will definitely continue.

The primary issue is how the productivity gains will be distributed, which is primarily a social and political issue.

And just for the record: I'm opposed to the introduction of Arnold-shaped (wo)manhunting killer robots.   


User currently offlineGeezer From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 1479 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 2028 times:

As a general rule, I never read sci-fi; I do read a few novels, but mainly I read mostly about things that are "happening now". But there is ONE big exception to that; in the past, I read about half of the books written by, (IMHO), the "master" of them all......Isaac Asimov; I forget now how many books Asimov wrote, but it was a bunch. And HIS robots were definitely, the most interesting robots of all. (only writer in history able to write a great story without using sex as part of it)

I've been hearing all of the "predictions" about machines "taking over" since I was about 20; so now, after waiting for the last 60 years for all of this BS to "happen", I can now tell you what "man's" biggest worry is; other men; (and women) (who have their heads screwed on backwards)

There's the old adage, "if you want to understand the future, study at the past"; I do that every day; I'm a very firm believer in that no one can accurately predict the future; but at the same time, any intelligent, rational person taking note of things that have happened, and why they have happened, will be able to "see" what is "likely to happen" in the near future. Many things "happen" every single day; a very large % of those events happening each day, have happened, are happening, and will continue to happen, because of actions of people which have CAUSED them to happen.

I don't have time to write a book just now; and it would take a rather thick book to address the original topic. So I'll attempt to say it in less than a page. ( which should be a new record for me )

When people are young, if they are "lucky", they have at least one parent, hopefully two, to "support" them; a place to live, something to eat each day, and so on; that usually ends when they get out of school, (if they even go to school); in other words, most young people are faced with how to support themselves after a certain point; just a casual glance at young people will tell you that they go in MANY directions, and that many of those directions are certain to lead to...."oblivion". (just to say it with one word)

The really smart ones realize having knowledge is essential, so they go to college; about 5% of those may actually learn something useful while in college. The one's that you hear so much about are usually part of the other 95%; they tend to spend the majority of their time doing less than useful things; such as...guaranteeing life-long deafness from listening to extremely loud noise on small electronic devices, (which further deplete their already meager resources) (just another example of "cause and effect")

So, just by observing what people are doing, other people can sometimes make remarkably accurate predictions as to where they may "end up". (or down)

From my own personal observations I can assure you of this; machines, technology, automation......all of these things are the very least of your worries; the thing you need to be worrying about ........ are people. Don't take my word for it, but DO try to remember that I predicted it.

Charley



Stupidity: Doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result; Albert Einstein
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 13 hours ago) and read 2012 times:

Sort of ironic, but I had robotic surgery last week - tumor taken off my kidney using a Di Vinci robot.

That robot is, for me, a perfect example of where robotics are best utilized. The Di Vinci reduces the open field, but also significantly magnifies that field. 10 - 15 Times magnification makes a significant improvement on many surgeries.

It should also be noted that training on the robot comes after not only traditional medical training, but also after specialist training. My Urologist needed to be able to shift to a traditional open surgery at any point. Happens about 2% - 3% of the time.

That is one example of robots used live by "labor" to improve performance. In these fields the potential wealth of companies producing the robots is significant. I see more potential gains in this area than in production robots like we see on an auto assembly line.

The odd point about "labor" for me is the need to have a sufficiently large labor group available to purchase products made with computers. Henry Ford clearly understood this when he started a large production run - there needs to be customers for what is produced. Shrinking middle classes, attacks on unions - thees are the indicators that put the customer base at risk.


User currently offlineGeezer From United States of America, joined Aug 2010, 1479 posts, RR: 2
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 9 hours ago) and read 1991 times:

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 6):
Sort of ironic, but I had robotic surgery last week - tumor taken off my kidney using a Di Vinci robot.

That robot is, for me, a perfect example of where robotics are best utilized. The Di Vinci reduces the open field, but also significantly magnifies that field. 10 - 15 Times magnification makes a significant improvement on many surgeries.

About 4 or 5 years ago, I was diagnosed with prostate cancer; my urologist told me, you have three options; A.radiation treatment, B. brachytherapy (radioactive iodine /seed implant C. Radical prostectomy (cut the thing out and toss it)

My urologist spent quite q lot of time explaining all of the options; at the time, he explained that they hesitate to do major surgery on people over about 60 to 65, depending on the individual; I was about 75 or 76 at the time, but he said due to my uncommon physical condition he would do surgery if I chose it; he explained that the surgery required an incision about 10 or 11 inches long, and it takes a long time to heal up from that surgery because of the size incision.

I went with the seed implant; it turned out to be a very good decision, as it worked fine, and now I'm cancer free.

About 6 months after I had the procedure, Union Hospital bought a Di Vinci robot; my urologist is one of about 3 or 4 surgeons that are trained to use it. As I go for a blood test twice a year, the next time I saw him we were talking about the robot, and I asked him what the advantage was; he told me that with the Di Vinci, instead of a 10 in incision, it only required about one and a half to two inch incision, 30 days to heal rather than six months, and was all around much safer. I'm kinda glad now they didn't have the thing yet, because the procedure I had went so well.

I don't know what all they use the thing for, and so far, I never have found out what the thing cost; I'm guessing, "a lot"!

Charley



Stupidity: Doing the same thing over and over and over again and expecting a different result; Albert Einstein
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1974 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 4):
Human labour has been substituted with machines for centuries by now. That is nothing new at all and it will definitely continue.

But it isn't just labour now (which is being substituted at a faster rate than ever before) but services as well. There was an article in the NY Times a while back about how even lawyers are getting squeezed out of opportunities because software has replaced a lot of their functions as articling students and new jr lawyers.

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 6):
The odd point about "labor" for me is the need to have a sufficiently large labor group available to purchase products made with computers. Henry Ford clearly understood this when he started a large production run - there needs to be customers for what is produced. Shrinking middle classes, attacks on unions - thees are the indicators that put the customer base at risk.

When even in China they are replacing human labour with robots you know that we have reached a tipping point. What ends up happening is that it becomes a race to the bottom.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKlaus From Germany, joined Jul 2001, 21467 posts, RR: 53
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1971 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 8):
But it isn't just labour now (which is being substituted at a faster rate than ever before) but services as well. There was an article in the NY Times a while back about how even lawyers are getting squeezed out of opportunities because software has replaced a lot of their functions as articling students and new jr lawyers.

This trend was never limited to just physical labour...


User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 8 hours ago) and read 1968 times:

Quoting Geezer (Reply 7):
he explained that they hesitate to do major surgery on people over about 60 to 65, depending on the individual

The old radical was pretty extensive. My incision started a the belly button and headed sough. Any further and it would have been heading north. Recovery, IMO, will be how out of shape you are as much as your age. But the DiVince does change the rules in the patient's favor.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day 1 hour ago) and read 1951 times:

Quoting Klaus (Reply 9):
This trend was never limited to just physical labour...

Of course. Historically physical labour dominated the "trend" but now, increasingly, the trend is penetrating "knowledge" industries.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19725 posts, RR: 58
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 1 day ago) and read 1947 times:

I have a robot that vacuums my floor every night (which is necessary with two dogs) and one that mops better than I do. Another one cuts my lawn.

I, for one, welcome my robot overlords.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6667 posts, RR: 11
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 1927 times:

Robots that can help the elderly are also welcome, especially when they'll get cheaper, because not everybody can afford a caregiver. My Italian grandmother lives with an aunt and has a full time caregiver but that's only possible because her children have enough money. Many families in Italy use immigrants for such jobs.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 14 hours ago) and read 1907 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 12):
I, for one, welcome my robot overlords.

Glad you are not sore for Watson beating you.     

Quoting Aesma (Reply 13):
Robots that can help the elderly are also welcome, especially when they'll get cheaper, because not everybody can afford a caregiver.

Toshiba (and other companies) are already working on that as Japan has a REAL BIG problem with having the highest elderly demographic in the world.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19725 posts, RR: 58
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 4 weeks 11 hours ago) and read 1899 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 14):
Toshiba (and other companies) are already working on that as Japan has a REAL BIG problem with having the highest elderly demographic in the world.
http://www.globalaging.org/elderrights/world/2004/japaninvention.htm

One of the coolest/creepiest things I've ever seen. They also have automatic dog washers:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=8n4aRzAJOmM

The dogs don't seem to like it much, but they don't like baths, period.

While I think that robots of various sorts will continue to be an important part of our human future, I do not think that we will see computers replacing humans in actual decision-making capacities in our lifetimes. Human brains are very different down to the atomic level than computers. While computers can model neural networks, there are issues with some of the sheer stochastic processes driving a brain. There is also the issue that a brain is a product of evolution and not intentional design. And the fact that we are very unfamiliar with the basic processing methods of the brain.

We have a good understanding of how small neuronal networks can integrate information and how it is that they manage to combine a strange conglomerate of digital, analog, and logarhythmic features. We know what parts of the brain are most active during certain processes. But we have no idea why it is that people with massive brain injuries can still retain a sense of self and even all of their memories. We're only just figuring out how to read the visual cortex, but most of that is from correlative work, rather than actually understanding how one goes from an image of an apple on the retina to the thought: "A-ha! An apple!" We have a long way to go before we can understand how these small-scale neuronal interactions generalize into the greater picture of a functioning human brain.

We can also generalize much better than computers. If a pre-industrial person were shown a 747, an MD80, and an A340 and told that these are all airplanes, he would instantly recognize that an A320 is also an airplane, even though he's never seen one before, and even if shown it from a point of view from the others. Computers are really bad at that sort of thing.

So until we have a complete and full understanding of how the human brain works on all levels of scale, I doubt that we will see computers performing similar tasks.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 14 hours ago) and read 1845 times:

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
One of the coolest/creepiest things I've ever seen. They also have automatic dog washers:

I actually read the article when it was first published (long time NYTimes reader... alternately love and hate Tom Friedman   ).

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 15):
While I think that robots of various sorts will continue to be an important part of our human future, I do not think that we will see computers replacing humans in actual decision-making capacities in our lifetimes.

Many experts are predicting that we will see AI surpass humans possibly as soon as 2030 and no later than 2050. These videos might sway your timeframe:

Jürgen Schmidhuber - When creative machines overtake man

Prof. Jürgen Schmidhuber is with the Swiss AI Lab IDSIA & USI & SUPSI (ex-TUM CogBotLab & CU). Since age 15 or so his main scientific ambition has been to build an optimal scientist, then retire. This is driving his research on self-improving Artificial Intelligence. His team won many international competitions and awards, and pioneered the field of mathematically rigorous universal AI and optimal universal problem solvers. He also generalized the many-worlds theory of physics to a theory of all constructively computable universes - an algorithmic theory of everything. His formal theory of creativity & curiosity & fun (1990-2010) explains art, science, music, and humor.
http://www.idsia.ch/~juergen/

Peter Bock - Emergence of Creativity in Artificial Intelligence

Peter Bock discusses the evolution of Artificial Intelligence and states his intention of creating the world's first artificial being. He shows the capabilities of the current system, known as ALISA, in creating works of art. Peter Bock is a Professor Emeritus of the Department of Computer Science at The George Washington University. During his 40-year career, Peter has focused on developing his biologically-inspired statistical learning theory, known as Collective Learning Systems (CLS), to provide essential knowledge for reverse engineering the brain and understanding cognition. He worked with NASA as part of the Apollo Program.

And, of course, there is Ray Kurzweil who has many videos/movies, interviews and articles/books (his latest: How to Create a Mind) and who is now Google’s New Director Of Engineering. A decent place to start is at one of his websites.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineKen777 From United States of America, joined Mar 2004, 8278 posts, RR: 8
Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 13 hours ago) and read 1837 times:

Quoting planemaker (Reply 16):
Many experts are predicting that we will see AI surpass humans possibly as soon as 2030 and no later than 2050

When you get down to it, there is no doubt that computers will be able to learn existing knowledge in medicine, math & sciences, etc. Unfortunately the ability to teach computers the art of medicine will lack hard core science. It's also difficult to teach computers evaluations that are human in nature. You can enter the basics of, say, rehabbing a stroke patient, but experienced human evaluations are different for each patient. I can see robots supporting professional practitioners, but they won't over take them.

It's also odd, but computers rally have no need for "education" in areas of the humanities. It's fine to load them with massive libraries, but that only provides a facility to distribute books, movies, etc. to humans. Robots need nothing but electricity. No need for humanities, or even motivations like greed.


User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1821 times:

Quoting Ken777 (Reply 17):
Unfortunately the ability to teach computers the art of medicine will lack hard core science.

There may be some vigorous debate about when "computers" will surpass humans, but among experts there is no debate that it will happen, with most experts expecting it to happen within 50 years.

The comment that DocLightning made earlier, "I, for one, welcome my robot overlords", referenced IBM's Watson computer that defeated the two "winningest" contestants in Jeapordy! history. Watson is already transitioning to the medical field: Cleveland Clinic and IBM Work to Advance Watson’s Use in the Medical Training Field

And there is also several interesting X-Prizes for Life Sciences.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
User currently offlineplanemaker From Tuvalu, joined Aug 2003, 6193 posts, RR: 34
Reply 19, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 6 days 4 hours ago) and read 1549 times:

Following on "Watson" and the Cleveland clinic from my previous post, this article extract was quite interesting:

Quote:
WellPoint’s chief medical officer Samuel Nussbaum said at the press event today that health care pros make accurate treatment decisions in lung cancer cases only 50% of the time (a shocker to me). Watson, since being trained in this medical specialty, can make accurate decisions 90% of the time. Patients, of course, need 100% accuracy, but making the leap from being right half the time to being right 9 out of ten times will be a huge boon for patient care.
IBM's Watson Gets Its First Piece Of Business In Healthcare

Hopefully, this article will illustrate to those that don't comprehend the accelerating rate of IT just how "easy" it would be to have SP Ops within ~10-15 years.



Nationalism is an infantile disease. It is the measles of mankind. - A. Einstein
Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Do You Believe In All, Some, Or None Of The Bible? posted Fri Oct 8 2010 19:07:37 by zrs70
4: Rise Of The Silver Surfer posted Thu Jun 21 2007 19:04:39 by EK20
Fantastic Four: Rise Of The Silver Surfer posted Tue Mar 20 2007 11:15:50 by EK20
Rise Of The New Metal CD's/Metal Head Thread posted Thu Apr 7 2005 17:52:58 by AA61Hvy
Rise Of The Vulcans, Great Book! posted Fri Apr 30 2004 03:51:10 by Rjpieces
The Best Pop (aka Soda Or Coke) Of All Time. posted Fri Mar 19 2010 23:13:54 by LOT767-300ER
Freedom Of The Press... Or Breaking The Law? posted Tue Jan 22 2008 09:33:36 by MDorBust
Here Are All Of Dr. Smiths Insults Of The Robot posted Thu Aug 2 2007 23:09:48 by Tarantine
It's That Time Of The Year: Boxers Or Briefs posted Fri Mar 10 2006 12:58:10 by Senorcarnival
Nixon's Rise From The Ashes Of Defeat? posted Wed May 11 2005 05:59:01 by Zippyjet