Sponsor Message:
Non Aviation Forum
My Starred Topics | Profile | New Topic | Forum Index | Help | Search 
Is Egypt Headed For A Military Coup?  
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 1810 times:

Egypt's Defence Minister and military chief General Abdel Fattah al-Sissi has posted a warning on his Facebook page that Egypt is in imminent danger of collapse and the military could not allow this to happen.

Against a background of continuing protests against the Government of Morsi and in opposition to the recent vote on a Constitution, Morsi has declared a State of Emergency. Despite this protests continue in which some 52 deaths have been reported. A month long State of Emergency was placed on Port Said, Ismailiya and Suez, the three provinces most affected by the protests and rioting. The military has been deployed in these areas to "maintain order"

General Sissi has stated "The deployment of the army in Port Said and Suez aims to protect strategic infrastructure, especially the Suez Canal, which we will not allow to be harmed."

So it seems that Morsi, who hails from the Muslim Brotherhood, who rose to power on the back of a wave of popular unrest against Mubarak and the military is now dependent on that same military to remain in office. The question that crosses my mind is "how far will the military tolerate Morsi before deciding that he needs replacing?"

Is Egypt headed for a coup?

Note: I would hope this thread to remained informed and not degenerate into a non-productive "I told you so" gloat session.

[Edited 2013-01-29 06:16:45]

15 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineMadameConcorde From San Marino, joined Feb 2007, 10899 posts, RR: 37
Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1781 times:

Quoting Quokkas (Thread starter):
Egypt is in imminent danger of collapse and the military could not allow this to happen.

Who is to be blamed for this? The Western powers should never have encouraged Mubarak's removal by financing and encouraging these opposition groups including the Muslim Brotherhood and helping destabilizing Egypt and the same goes with Libya.

What now? A range of democratic elections were held and people voted and Morsi and his MB friends have accessed power by the voter's will. Is it any better than how it was with Mubarak? NO. It isn't. So what do they want now? Why are they protesting again? When will this mess get to an end?

Danger of collapse? Whose fault? Why did they want Mubarak out?
Will things get better with a military coup? NO. Certainly not.

They should have left Mubarak alone.
He was corrupt but what now? It is much worse.

 Wow!



There was a better way to fly it was called Concorde
User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6666 posts, RR: 11
Reply 2, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1750 times:

The situation is not worse, it is pretty much the same, the military was in power, the military is still in power. And the US never stopped to support the military.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1725 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Who is to be blamed for this?

Is there actually a need to assign blame? Are things that simple? Should we blame those who advocated democracy in France for the Bonapartist reaction that followed? My immediate concern is for the ordinary people of Egypt that I know and who are my friends.

Some of the opposition advocated a boycott of the referendum on the Constitution. Should they not accept part of the responsibility for the present position? Had everyone voted, would the outcome been a rejection and therefore a repudiation of the new Constitution? Fact is that we don't know.

Perhaps the opposition urged a boycott because they feared defeat. That was a matter for them to judge but can we write off an attempt because we dislike the outcome?

Reading the actual Constitution document that was presented it was in some ways more advanced than many similar documents in the West, but it was clearly deficient on the question of religion, as are the constitutions of the UK, Netherlands and Norway to mention a few which impose a religion for the head of state. I am not surprised that it was rejected by many because of its placing law having its basis on Islamic law.

If the "obvious response" was that something worse might ensue, should the population simply have put up with a dictatorship "that we knew" rather than at least try to achieve something better? Remember that Mubarrak also claimed to base his authority as being consistent with Islamic law.

Can the same argument be advanced to Korea? I only ask because you have (perhaps, and I suspect, tongue in cheek) suggested that the US and Israel bomb that country.

I agree wholeheartedly that the solution to the problems in any country, ultimately lie with the people that country. But in the face of a military dictatorship should be resign ourselves to the perpetual denial of human rights in another country simply because the West fears that what other people regard as human rights might not match our own?


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7914 posts, RR: 51
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1717 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
A range of democratic elections were held and people voted and Morsi and his MB friends have accessed power by the voter's will.

   The people DID NOT intend to elect a dictator. Hitler was also democratically elected, do you think all the Germans voted for a Holocaust?

Mubarak was a bad guy, but Morsi is turning out to be a bad guy too. What do you suggest the Egyptian people do, settle for one dictator because they might get a worse guy? Or do you think they should fight and struggle for an actual good government?

I don't know where you live, but I can guarantee you that your ancestors had a better attitude about it and fought and died so they could and now you can live in a democracy. Who says a country has to go from a dictator to a perfect democracy in one try? From the get go I didn't think Egypt's transformation would be easy. It may be a decade with tens of thousands of deaths, but freedom is worth fighting for. Everything you know was paid for in blood



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1711 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 4):
Hitler was also democratically elected, do you think all the Germans voted for a Holocaust?

Hitler, while being the leader of the biggest political faction in the (very fragmented) Reichstag, didn´t have the majority to become chancellor (head of government). He was appointed by already senile president Hindenburg, who used his emergency powers under the Weimar constitution to do so, as there could no majority be found for an elected government.
Hitler then used the powers that being chancellor and emergency powers gave him to arrest the opposition. He declared himself "Führer" then in 1934, after Hindenburg died, leaving the post of president vacant.

Jan


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7914 posts, RR: 51
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1696 times:

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 5):
Hitler, while being the leader of the biggest political faction in the (very fragmented) Reichstag, didn´t have the majority to become chancellor (head of government). He was appointed by already senile president Hindenburg, who used his emergency powers under the Weimar constitution to do so, as there could no majority be found for an elected government.

He was still elected by many, which was my point. Maybe a bad example. My point is just because you vote someone in office doesn't mean you are just okay with everything that politician does, and politicians can grab power. If you try and throw that corrupt politician out, it doesn't mean you are wrong for doing so because you didn't have a crystal ball and didn't realize he'd go dictator on you.

We're not talking about simple democratic mistakes of "oh I voted for him but he's a pretty bad politician..." vote him out next time. But when you have a guy directly assaulting democracy and passing these BS decrees, that's when a revolution might be necessary.

And madame, it's not so simple as "do we want Mubarak or do we want Morsi?" No, we don't want a terrible leader and we'll keep going until we get one



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1692 times:

Well, you could say that in 1798 the Frech didn´t want the King, but I´m sure most of them later realised that Robespierre wasn´t the best choice either. IIRC it took the French five constitutions and about three revolutions or attempts at revolution until they arrived where they are now.

Jan


User currently offlineDeltaMD90 From United States of America, joined Apr 2008, 7914 posts, RR: 51
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1685 times:

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 7):
IIRC it took the French five constitutions and about three revolutions or attempts at revolution until they arrived where they are now.

   Exactly, should be accuse the French of just whining and tell them they should settle with the King or can we applaud the fact that they are a democracy now, despite their mistakes? Apparently they are broke now, so many they were better off with the King  



Ironically I have never flown a Delta MD-90 :)
User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1677 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 4):
Hitler was also democratically elected

I know that you neither support Mubarak or Morsi as dictators but one thing I would like to draw attention to, despite it being off-topic. The Nazis never achieved a majority without first locking up the opposition. The Nazis later actually passed an act dissolving the Laender and scrapped the Hamburg Parliament altogether. By rewriting the Constitution and electoral laws this is similar (but not the same) to what Mubarak achieved over many years.

Disclaimer: My grandfather was a "guest" at Neuengamme and my mother was later "verschickt" to ensure the familly's reliability. Neither was Jewish (otherwise the outcome would be that I wouldn't be here) but my grandfather was an active Sozialdemokrat. The people of Hamburg never voted for Hitler. Indeed the Many years later my grandmother took delight in showing me where "hinter dem Kachelofen" they hid incriminating documents.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6666 posts, RR: 11
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 1643 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 8):
Exactly, should be accuse the French of just whining and tell them they should settle with the King or can we applaud the fact that they are a democracy now, despite their mistakes? Apparently they are broke now, so many they were better off with the King

Actually economic woes were a main element of the French revolution, and are at the heart of the situation in Egypt too. The military has a tight grip on Egypt's economy and does a bad job managing it.



New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 31
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 4 days ago) and read 1640 times:

Quoting DeltaMD90 (Reply 6):
Maybe a bad example.

How about Ferdinand Marcos as an example?

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
So what do they want now? Why are they protesting again? When will this mess get to an end?

What they want is thier word ot be law.

Unfortunately it takes a generation to learn to deal with a democracy as a form of government. People who clamor for the vote and change in countries with a history of dictatorial rule don't understand the vital importance of losing to make a democracy work.

People think that if they have the vote, they will win ever issue. Every desire and plan of their group will be the rule, the law.

They don't understand that a healthy democracy requires that your group lose about 40-60% of the issues/ votes. If the 'loyal opposition' does not feel some of their concerns are being addressed/ resolved - then they will move from loyal opposition to active opposition to active riots in extreme cases.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Will things get better with a military coup? NO. Certainly not.

Better - maybe.

Stable - possibly.


User currently offlineQuokkas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1604 times:

Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 11):
They don't understand that a healthy democracy requires that your group lose about 40-60% of the issues/ votes

A people under a dictatorship who have been accustomed to losing far more than 40-60% of the issues may possibly be more aware of what constitutes democracy and what simply presents itself as such.

The people of Egypt are not stupid. The people of Egypt can and do think. The people of Egypt do have ideas about what is best for Egypt. That may not match what people in Europe, the US or Australia might think best but you can bet that they are not thinking "will this meet the approval of people in another country?" They will be thinking about things like will this provide jobs, will this feed my children, will this give them an education, will it mean that they have a better life than me or my parents? What the Japanese or Guatamala thinks will be a matter of complete indifference, just as it would be for someone in Michigan or Toowoomba.

Before people begin to pontificate on how other people in other countries should think they may wish to spend at least a micro-second on thinking "how would I be in that situation?" Remember also that in so-called civilised countries not everyone thinks the same way. Why would we expect that to be different in other countries. Don't get me wrong. I have my own questions about where Egypt is headed but I am not arrogant enough to assert that I am the possessor of a superior code of civilisation.

So I suggest that we drop the self-proclaimed superiority and accept that people in Egypt are no different than people in any other country. From my experience the Egyptian people that I know, have met and have spent time with, want pretty much the same as you and me. One of the central issues of contention is one of the issues that Americans take for granted: freedom of (and from) religion. The current Constitution does not allow that.


User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2469 posts, RR: 0
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1549 times:

Quoting Quokkas (Thread starter):
A month long State of Emergency was placed on Port Said, Ismailiya and Suez, the three provinces most affected by the protests and rioting.

While I realize this is only a small piece of a bigger picture, a lot of this latest rioting was started by the government sentencing to death 21 of soccer hooligans for causing a mass trampling at a game. http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-21235994

Of course, this is largely just the straw broke camels back and there is clearly a lot of underlying tension, but there are just as clearly a lot of issues and extremes on both sides when the government sentences sports hooligans to death en masse and the population cant watch or support sports in a civilized manner and resort to violent behavior in one of your key economic areas (Suez Canal) which may ultimately affect international relations, trade and foreign income if left unchecked. I do see the whole situation as a little short sighted from all sides.



Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
User currently offlineTheCol From Canada, joined Jan 2007, 2039 posts, RR: 6
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 14 hours ago) and read 1537 times:

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
The Western powers should never have encouraged Mubarak's removal by financing and encouraging these opposition groups including the Muslim Brotherhood

The West isn't backing the Muslim Brotherhood.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Is it any better than how it was with Mubarak? NO. It isn't. So what do they want now? Why are they protesting again?

You just answered your own question.

Quoting MadameConcorde (Reply 1):
Will things get better with a military coup? NO. Certainly not.

It depends on what the military has planned after the coup.

Quoting Aesma (Reply 2):

No, the military sat by and played ball up until now. Whether or not they decide to go through with another coup is still debatable.



No matter how random things may appear, there's always a plan.
User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 31
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 3 weeks 3 days 13 hours ago) and read 1530 times:

Quoting Quokkas (Reply 12):
A people under a dictatorship who have been accustomed to losing far more than 40-60% of the issues may possibly be more aware of what constitutes democracy

Over my lifetime I've been amazingly luck enough to be present at the birth of a new independent nation - a peaceful process and an amazing thing to watch as the old colonial power turned over the last reins of power.

I've also been present during the final phases of the destruction of one nation, two very violent endings of dictatorships, and one not terribly violent end of a dictatorship.

I've spend a lot of time studying the 'nation building' process. Both on an internal only level, and with an external support system.

My comments are on the generalities of transitioning the mindset from "We have no power, no input" to "We all have to work together" of a democratic system.

People understand not having power, not having an input in the government process. Even if some people understand that democracy doesn't mean 'We always win' - they haven't lived it. It isn't ingrained in their bones.

Back 30+ years ago, I did some work and research in Japan on how they developed a democratic government mindset. Talking to older Japanese who were mostly born right after the war, or were young children in the war - their comments were that their parents never understood the power of the vote. And the necessity of working with the government, even if their party lost the election.

I've seen the same thing in the Philippines, with new Vietnamese immigrants to the US, with immigrants to the US from eastern Europe, Africa and the Middle East, including Egypt.

My ex-wife was one of those people. Even during the 2004 election, she was worried and upset that her current (19 years of marriage at that time) husband was working for John Kerry in his free time. He was a MCPO in the US Navy with over 26 years service - she was worried that publicly supporting the opponent of the sitting president might cost him a step or two of rank, and possibly get him kicked out of the Navy without a pension. The ingrained fears of living under a dictatorial regime while growing up and a young adult are hard to put aside - even after 29 years as a US citizen.

By and large the people who were adults never completely trust a democracy. Never completely trust that their 'anti-government' actions won't be recorded and used against them in the future.

That 40+ years of studying the application of the democratic process has made me very thankful that I grew up in a country where the principles apply on a gross level

It's never perfect - certainly. There are plenty of exceptions to a blanket rule applying to every person.

But I've found that large groups of unhappy oppressed people take a long, long time to develop an understanding and a mindset to be a working functional part of a democratic system.


Top Of Page
Forum Index

This topic is archived and can not be replied to any more.

Printer friendly format

Similar topics:More similar topics...
Pakistan Is Headed For Trouble posted Wed Oct 24 2007 06:37:46 by Cfalk
Is Yahoo Slow For You? posted Sun May 16 2010 15:47:43 by seb146
Howard Stern Headed For American Idol? YES! posted Mon Feb 8 2010 10:46:04 by VarigB707
75% Of Young Americans Unfit For Military posted Fri Nov 6 2009 15:17:09 by Aaron747
Is The W/H Wrong For Attacking Fox News? posted Mon Oct 19 2009 19:14:16 by FuturePilot16
Is America Ready For A Potus Of Color? posted Wed Jan 9 2008 02:39:22 by NorthstarBoy
Is It Wrong For White Men To Date Asian Women? posted Mon Nov 19 2007 10:07:47 by PROSA
Is It Time For The BCS To Go? posted Mon Nov 12 2007 14:49:01 by FlyDeltaJets87
Is Egypt Part Of Africa Or Asia? posted Sat Oct 13 2007 08:46:47 by United Airline
Greenpeace And PETA..headed For A Showdown posted Wed Oct 10 2007 07:33:46 by RJdxer