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The Next Rogue Nation?  
User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6096 posts, RR: 28
Posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 7 hours ago) and read 2132 times:
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What nation will be the next rogue nation? Think about it. There was a time when Korea was one and there was no DPRK. I am sure back in 1900 nobody thought about the Koreans (those in the north) as being troublesome on the world stage. Back in 1900 I doubt anyone thought about Persia (Iran) becoming a rogue nation. Back in 1835 would anyone have imagined what the lands that were to become a unified Germany would become in 1935? in 1800 would anyone thought about the Empire of Japan in the 1920-1940s? Over the course of human history rogue nations come and go, but there are always a few around. What nations might be trouble in the next 100 years or so.


My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
48 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlinen229nw From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 1950 posts, RR: 31
Reply 1, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2112 times:

This is scary stuff from the DPRK

http://www.guardian.co.uk/world/vide.../north-korea-new-york-flames-video

Honestly, I know they won't act on it, but this video is rather disturbing. If they were Muslim or had oil, congress would be chomping at the bit to bomb and invade liberate them.

As for the future, it's so hard to predict. One crazy dictator can mean nothing, or a lot, depending on how the world reacts in terms of alliances and support... Pakistan is in a very precarious situation though.



It's people like you what cause unrest!
User currently offlineDocLightning From United States of America, joined Nov 2005, 19682 posts, RR: 58
Reply 2, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2082 times:

Probably somewhere in Africa.

User currently offlinehoMsar From United States of America, joined Jan 2010, 1183 posts, RR: 0
Reply 3, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 2078 times:

Possibly somewhere in North America, between Canada and Mexico.


I was raised by a cup of coffee.
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 4, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2073 times:
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I'd like to say Chad, because we almost never hear anything about Chad. Nobody ever goes to Chad. Has anyone here been to Chad?


✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlinePowerslide From Canada, joined Oct 2010, 569 posts, RR: 1
Reply 5, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2058 times:

Quoting hoMsar (Reply 4):
Possibly somewhere in North America, between Canada and Mexico.

California?


User currently offlinepvjin From Finland, joined Mar 2012, 1260 posts, RR: 3
Reply 6, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 5 hours ago) and read 2035 times:

If we are looking for traditional rogue state then around somewhere in Africa - Middle East - Central Asia axis.

However I could also see evil mega corporations gaining even more power in the US and making it something like a rogue state.

Pretty many definitions are already met:

Sponsor terrorism [x] (Or at least during cold war especialy)
Weapons of mass destruction [x]
Restricted human rights [x]
Threat to the world peace [x]
Efficient propaganda machine [x]
Authoritarian government [ ]

[Edited 2013-02-06 12:29:14]


"A rational army would run away"
User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6096 posts, RR: 28
Reply 7, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1978 times:
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Quoting Powerslide (Reply 6):
Quoting hoMsar (Reply 4):Possibly somewhere in North America, between Canada and Mexico.
California?

If Michigan's upper Penninsula ever breaks away we are in trouble.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 7):
Restricted human rights

That is always a tricky issue, because what does that really mean? Some people would argue that the a labor union's right to negotiate a contract is a human right. Some would say that gays not being allowed to marry is a violation of a human right. I consider my right to own a gun a God given right, but others would say it isn't.

Quoting DocLightning (Reply 3):
Probably somewhere in Africa.

That is probably the best bet. There are a lot of wars down there most people know nothing about so a nasty dictator could pop up almost at any time.

Quoting n229nw (Reply 1):
This is scary stuff from the DPRK

I like how the photographer, who is dreaming, has a Canon camera. I guess the Japanese capitalists are ok, just not American capitalists.

The DPRK's arch enemy is the USA? That is so funny, we haven't done crap to them in 50 years. They are really hung up on the past. If they hadn't invaded the south the Americans and the UN wouldn't have had a war there.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlinepvjin From Finland, joined Mar 2012, 1260 posts, RR: 3
Reply 8, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1955 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 8):
That is always a tricky issue, because what does that really mean? Some people would argue that the a labor union's right to negotiate a contract is a human right. Some would say that gays not being allowed to marry is a violation of a human right. I consider my right to own a gun a God given right, but others would say it isn't.

Well I was mainly thinking about something that no other western country I know has, restrictions to stop its citizens from travelling to certain countries.

As far as I know US government is the only western government forbidding its citizens from using money in Cuba to effectively block most of the travel there (other than from those who get special permission for that because of having relatives there and other reasons like that). Of course also other countries have taken part in many embargoes such as the one against Iran, however really none of them forbid their private citizens from travelling to these countries and using small amounts of money in them.



"A rational army would run away"
User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6096 posts, RR: 28
Reply 9, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 4 hours ago) and read 1945 times:
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Quoting pvjin (Reply 9):
As far as I know US government is the only western government forbidding its citizens from using money in Cuba to effectively block most of the travel there

I always thought that was weird. Americans could go to the USSR and the DDR if they wanted to and had permission from those governments. I have met Americans who visited both places in 1960s and 1970s.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 9):
Well I was mainly thinking about something that no other western country I know has, restrictions to stop its citizens from travelling to certain countries

A lot of people could care less about kind of thing. When I think of human rights I think about people be locked up for their political opinion and things like that. There are a lot of people who would like that kind of thing, but fortunately we haven't gotten to that point yet.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlineRussianJet From Belgium, joined Jul 2007, 7703 posts, RR: 21
Reply 10, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1913 times:
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Quoting falstaff (Reply 10):
A lot of people could care less about kind of thing

You're right of course - a lot of people DO care a lot about it.



✈ Every strike of the hammer is a blow against the enemy. ✈
User currently offlineRara From Germany, joined Jan 2007, 2085 posts, RR: 2
Reply 11, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1903 times:

Quoting falstaff (Thread starter):
What nation will be the next rogue nation? Think about it. There was a time when Korea was one and there was no DPRK. I am sure back in 1900 nobody thought about the Koreans (those in the north) as being troublesome on the world stage. Back in 1900 I doubt anyone thought about Persia (Iran) becoming a rogue nation. Back in 1835 would anyone have imagined what the lands that were to become a unified Germany would become in 1935? in 1800 would anyone thought about the Empire of Japan in the 1920-1940s? Over the course of human history rogue nations come and go, but there are always a few around. What nations might be trouble in the next 100 years or so.

Hmm. You've got quite a mixed bag of countries in your definition of "rogue nations" - ranging from countries which ignited total world war, over countries which severely violated human rights, to countries which simply don't do the U.S.'s bidding. And then at the end you just wrap it up with "trouble".  

Those varying definitions make it a bit hard to give suggestions.

It it's just "trouble", the U.S. could easily be a candidate for rogue nation. If something like the Iraq War, i.e. attacking a sovereign country "just cuz we can", becomes the norm rather than the exception, the U.S. could become a major global troublemaker. Another candidate would be China.

If it's genocide and human rights violations, then sub-Saharan Africa is probably the most likely. South Africa for instance has potential both to do great and to do horrible. One of the most interesting countries to watch right now.

If it's the incitement of a world war, I don't think any country could pull that off in the medium term. It's simply become too expensive. Human life used to be cheap almost anywhere in the world; it isn't anymore.

If it's resistance against the the will of the United States you're looking for, look towards Israel. Israel is quickly moving into a situation where they deny a majority of their population the right to form an own country, and deny them the right to civil participation at the same time. Right now this problem seems negligible, because this part of the population resorts to violence a lot and doesn't give us the feeling they "deserve" civil rights, but just wait till they exchange their AK-47s and intifadas for banners and peace marches. Israel could very quickly become the next South Africa - a pariah on the world stage, denying civil participation to its Arab citizens, to the dismay of enlightened governments and activists worldwide.   Sounds bizarre now - could well become reality in 30 to 40 years.



Samson was a biblical tough guy, but his dad Samsonite was even more of a hard case.
User currently offlinen229nw From United States of America, joined Sep 2004, 1950 posts, RR: 31
Reply 12, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 3 hours ago) and read 1871 times:

Quoting Maverick623 (Reply 2):
Belgium.

Close, but really the far greater threat to global stability comes from Liechtenstein! Mark my words.

Actually, they have already formed a mutual defense (read "terrorist") pact with the Duchy of Grand Fenwick--which as we all know has been a major threat for a long time http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=p7L7WLFBYR4

Quoting RussianJet (Reply 5):

I'd like to say Chad, because we almost never hear anything about Chad. Nobody ever goes to Chad. Has anyone here been to Chad?

or of course you may be right. It may be Chad. Frankly they have already been nefariously spreading their propaganda by having people named Chad walking around. Coincidence? I don't think so. It's part of their chemtrails experiments.



It's people like you what cause unrest!
User currently offlineSOBHI51 From Saudi Arabia, joined Jun 2003, 3474 posts, RR: 17
Reply 13, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 2 hours ago) and read 1843 times:
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If i think about a country, for an unknown reason Egypt comes to mind.


I am against any terrorist acts committed under the name of Islam
User currently offlineluckyone From United States of America, joined Aug 2008, 2172 posts, RR: 0
Reply 14, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days 1 hour ago) and read 1808 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 9):
I always thought that was weird. Americans could go to the USSR and the DDR if they wanted to and had permission from those governments. I have met Americans who visited both places in 1960s and 1970s.

Without delving too far off topic, a lot of that has direct roots in the Kennedy Administration's family and business ties in a pre-1959 Cuba, and personal vendettas enacted later. The policies then became an important Cold War rally, because everybody needs an enemy, became very popular within a certain voting block and have yet to be repealed. Once a generation of voters who didn't grow up with the idea that missiles 90 miles away were somehow any worse than missiles a thousand miles away that could still kill you, I'm sure the policies will be overturned.


User currently offlinePacNWjet From United States of America, joined Sep 2000, 980 posts, RR: 0
Reply 15, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 4 days ago) and read 1775 times:

This is not intended as a self gloss, but as I point out in my recent book, the notion of a "rogue nation" is problematic, if not worthless, as an analytical concept because it is a metaphor and, like many metaphors, is subject to multiple interpretations rendering it impossible to measure in any meaningful way. The evidence for this is manifest in the posts on this thread wherein there is disagreement as to what constitutes a rogue nation and what countries might qualify to be put in that category. My research confirms what is laid out in this thread which is that scholars of politics and international relations do not agree on what is meant by the term "rogue nation." The term is employed inconsistently in both academic writing on the subject as well as journalistic coverage and governmental pronouncements. In short, there is no agreement in academic or governmental circles as to what qualifies as a "rogue nation" and therefore it is at best a term of convenience, not to mention a pointless concept in scholarly research, and at worst a tool of governmental propaganda.

User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6649 posts, RR: 11
Reply 16, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 23 hours ago) and read 1751 times:

While many countries support the US stance on North Korea and to some extant Iran, they mainly do it because it doesn't cost them much and they'd rather be on the US side. Most people don't care at all about those countries and think they're really a source of problems. I just watched a documentary about the 2012 US elections and you could see a rabid Romney supporter talking about nuking Mecca to spite Iran...only in the US !


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently offlinekiwiinoz From New Zealand, joined Oct 2005, 2165 posts, RR: 5
Reply 17, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 21 hours ago) and read 1715 times:

New Zealand. Those Hobbits that used to be a silent minority have really gained a following as a result of the Peter Jackson documentaries on their lifestyle. More than likely, they will take power at the next election. If that happens, we're all screwed.

User currently offlinerfields5421 From United States of America, joined Jul 2007, 7607 posts, RR: 31
Reply 18, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 10 hours ago) and read 1593 times:

Quoting Powerslide (Reply 5):
Quoting hoMsar (Reply 4):Possibly somewhere in North America, between Canada and Mexico.
California?

While Texas comes to mind, it is really Arizona which appears to want to replace the US federal government with their own version of government.


User currently offlineKiwiRob From New Zealand, joined Jun 2005, 7361 posts, RR: 5
Reply 19, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 9 hours ago) and read 1579 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 7):
I guess the Japanese capitalists are ok, just not American capitalists.

American capitalists don't make cameras. What do Americans actually make in terms of consumer products apart from cars? I own a fair number of products made by American comanies but nothing that was actually built in America.


User currently offlineAesma From France, joined Nov 2009, 6649 posts, RR: 11
Reply 20, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 8 hours ago) and read 1537 times:

Well some high tech chip manufacturing is still done in the US. Last year saw the opening of the new, latest tech GlobalFoundries plant in Malta, New York. GlobalFoundries builds AMD CPUs and graphic chips. Intel has also most of its plants in the US, including the latest tech. At the end of the day these plants are so expensive to build (you can't allow dust in them, at all) that it doesn't make much difference where you build them. Final assembly is often overseas, though. And you can't build these plants without Japanese optical technology.


New Technology is the name we give to stuff that doesn't work yet. Douglas Adams
User currently onlineSuperfly From Thailand, joined May 2000, 39873 posts, RR: 74
Reply 21, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 7 hours ago) and read 1518 times:

Quoting falstaff (Reply 9):
I have met Americans who visited both places in 1960s and 1970s.


I did it in the 2000s.

Quoting pvjin (Reply 8):
As far as I know US government is the only western government forbidding its citizens from using money in Cuba to effectively block most of the travel there (other than from those who get special permission for that because of having relatives there and other reasons like that).



Then there are outlaws like me that visited the place anyway and had a great time!   

Quoting falstaff (Thread starter):
What nations might be trouble in the next 100 years or so.


The new governments the current US administration help set up in Libya and Egypt is becoming a problem already.

Quoting falstaff (Reply 7):
The DPRK's arch enemy is the USA? That is so funny, we haven't done crap to them in 50 years.


At least Kim Jong Il had great taste in cars and went out in style with a car made just 20 miles away from your home right there in Wixom, Michigan.  
...



Quoting pvjin (Reply 8):
Well I was mainly thinking about something that no other western country I know has, restrictions to stop its citizens from travelling to certain countries.


...and that makes the US a rouge nation?   
I think the embargo is stupid but many of us go anyway. Those who get in trouble are slapped with a fine. There is no stoning, caning, beheadings or anything of that sort for going to Cuba.
That said, that embargo needs to be lifted.



Bring back the Concorde
User currently offlinefalstaff From United States of America, joined Jun 2006, 6096 posts, RR: 28
Reply 22, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 1490 times:
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Quoting rfields5421 (Reply 18):
it is really Arizona which appears to want to replace the US federal government with their own version of government

They only want to enforce the laws the federal government won't enforce.

Quoting Superfly (Reply 21):
At least Kim Jong Il had great taste in cars and went out in style with a car made just 20 miles away from your home right there in Wixom, Michigan.

Yes he did. A lot of dictators have great taste when it comes to cars. Saddam Hussein and Nicolae Ceausescu also come to mind for great car collections.



My mug slaketh over on Falstaff N503
User currently offlinepvjin From Finland, joined Mar 2012, 1260 posts, RR: 3
Reply 23, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 3 days 6 hours ago) and read 1489 times:

Quoting Superfly (Reply 21):
...and that makes the US a rouge nation?   

No, but rogue states typically do restrict travel of their citizens. Of course I'm not saying that United States is a rogue state already, but if it some day went into a bit less democratic direction it would have the potential to be one.



"A rational army would run away"
User currently offlineYVRLTN From Canada, joined Oct 2006, 2461 posts, RR: 0
Reply 24, posted (1 year 7 months 1 week 2 days 20 hours ago) and read 1414 times:

Im going for Scotland and Quebec  


Follow me on twitter for YVR movements @vernonYVR
25 falstaff : I am sure there are those in Quebec that would like to be.
26 soon7x7 : Bingo!,...sort of sounds like....................................us?! The recent past demeanor of America IMHO seems to fit the description. Like fin
27 Post contains images MadameConcorde : My vote goes to Zimbabwe How can they leave Robert Mugabe alone and name Ahamadinejad the world's # 1 black sheep? Robert Mugabe is the most atrocious
28 AirPacific747 : But Zimbabwe is already a rogue nation, is it not?
29 Superfly : You're implying that it's going in that direction. Just like any other nation. No need to worry. Mr. "hope & change" will rid us of our evils and
30 pvjin : Well that depends from if Americans vote a republican president in next elections or not. Both last major wars where US was involved were started by
31 DarkSnowyNight : Alaska. Sara Palin wrote a book about it. If it makes money, it's not pointless, right?
32 Pu : I rarely believe that the thundering herd of conventional wisdom is correct, and I especially reject the notion of China ever obtaining superpower st
33 luckyone : If you want to take that route, take note. When the United States entered both World Wars a Democrat was in the White House (Wilson and Roosevelt, re
34 OA260 : Yep my choice too. Sadly Egypt is going to hell in terms of democracy and rights. They just invited their Iranian friend for a visit. Its clear what
35 DeltaMD90 : I used to reject them being stronger than the US anytime soon. Not being cocky or anything, but that is how I truly felt. I heard everyone going "hur
36 KiwiRob : I'm going to go with Venice, once they gain independence form lame duck Italy they'll go rogue.
37 pvjin : Yeah I guess you are right that both Republicans and Democrats have started fair share of wars, I was mainly thinking a democrat that would be a bit
38 aerorobnz : Greece, Spain, Egypt, Israel, South Africa, Argentina, Russia could - I would think that it will be a more developed country that is going backwards t
39 n229nw : Honestly, I see a country going through a series of difficult and dangerous transitions. But I think the fact that there are constant protests, and a
40 Post contains images PHX787 : And they aren't rogue now? OK let me go through that and provide some feedback.... Greece: If the gvt doesn't get their sh~t together, yes they can t
41 luckyone : I agree that a person with that motivation is desirable. Blameless he is not, but you cannot put all of the blame with him. I am old enough to rememb
42 Pu : Technology by theft, yes, but Chinese scientific prowess is limited. There have only been 9 Chinese Nobel laureates and 6 in a scientific discipline.
43 aerorobnz : Sure. The divide between ethnicities still is as divisive as ever, the gulf between a rich minority and poor majority is ever increasing, as is viole
44 Post contains links pvjin : Hmm got to agree with South Africa, that country seems to be so incredibly messed up with all the corruption &violence and 1/3 of its male populat
45 Post contains links and images Superfly : That is true and even had the support from Senator Hillary Rodham Clinton. She voted with "conviction" and a smile that led to over 4,000 deaths or o
46 Post contains images LMP737 : Maybe Switzerland? Just sayin.
47 OA260 : Not gonna happen don't believe the media you watch. Things have stabilised dramatically in Greece even in the last few weeks. The strikes and prostes
48 Post contains images RussianJet : What do you mean 'maybe'? They already are!
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