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Terrorist Threat: A Poll  
User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 33
Posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1150 times:

Continuing on from my post the other day, it seems that many of you think the US is paranoid and that no threat exists, so please take the time to offer your answers:

1) What % chance do you think there is of a 9.11 type attack happening on the US mainland next 6 months.

2) What % chance do you think there is of a Biological attack (smallpox etc) happening on the US mainland in the next 6 months.

3) What % chance do you think there is of a Nuclear attack happening on the US mainland in the next 6 months.

4) What % chance do you think there is of Saddam actually having Serious weapons ?

5) What % chance is there that the US troops in IRAQ getting Chemical or Biological weapon attacks against them ?

6) If a significant attack were to happen on US soil, do you think it is justified ?

I personally am of the belief that there will be serious attacks with serious casualties on US soil within the next 6 months, I think there will be biological, but probably not Nuclear.

Jeremy



14 replies: All unread, jump to last
 
User currently offlineRyanb741 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2002, 3221 posts, RR: 15
Reply 1, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1140 times:

1) 2%

2) 0%

3) 0%

4) 80%

5) 60%

6) Depends. If it is an Iraqi attack then yes - not because the Iraqis are in the right but because the US and Iraq would be in a war situation and these things happen in war. If it is a terrorist attack then no, of course not.



I used to think the brain is the most fascinating part of my body. But, hey, who is telling me that?
User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 33
Reply 2, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1136 times:

Interesting, your 1-3 are very low. Is this because you don't think people will try or that you think it is difficult to acheive ?

thanks for the reply
Jeremy


User currently offlineManni From South Korea, joined Nov 2001, 4221 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1135 times:

While you'r answering these questions, could you also give me an answer to the following question.

What 6 numbers will form the winning combination at the lottery tomorrow?  Laugh out loud



SUPPORT THE LEBANESE CIVILIANS
User currently offlineTeva From France, joined Jan 2001, 1872 posts, RR: 15
Reply 4, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1125 times:

QUestions 1 to 5: 0.5% (because you can never say never...)
Question 6:what do you call a significant attack
Teva



Ecoute les orgues, Elles jouent pour toi...C'est le requiem pour un con
User currently offlineRacko From Germany, joined Nov 2001, 4857 posts, RR: 20
Reply 5, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1118 times:

1) 10%
2) 5%
3) 0%
4) 50%
5) 20%
6) Terrorist attack ? No. Iraqi attack on civilians? No. Iraqi attack against military? If the US had attacked Iraq first, yes.


User currently offlineTwaneedsnohelp From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1120 times:

I strongly predict another 9/11 type attack before Jan 2004.

User currently offlineUal747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1109 times:

1.) Maybe not in the next 6 months. I can see smaller terrorist attacks coming. And I do think they will come. Something like 9-11 takes years of planning. Especially since the US is really focusing more heavily on terrorism since 9-11. Now, what I think will eventually come to fruition is a bio attack, and then a nuclear (dirty bomb) attack. When? I dunno. Depends on Iraq and other things. So, I'd give this one about a 20% Chance.

2.) 5% But it IS coming, just not in the next 6 months. Unless Iraq's airforce gets significantly more advanced than the US/UK

3.) 5% It will happen. Unfortunately.

4.) 90% (As screwed up as our government is under Bush, I still believe them over Iraq.)

5.) 30% A bio attack on US troops would be suicide for Saddam. Unfortunately, if this happens, I think we might see the nuclear bomb being used again. This will be a sad day.

6.)Again, I agree with Ryan. War is war, whether I am on the US side or the Iraqi side. However, the UK would get attack way before the US. Well, that is if it's a conventional attack. However, I think Saddam would use terrorist tactics if he were to attack US/UK soil. However, the main difference in a US attack over an Iraqi one is that I have no doubt in my mind that the Iraqi's would do their damndest to kill American civilians. The US, though sometimes making mistakes, doesn't target innocents in this day and age.

UAL747


User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 33
Reply 8, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1100 times:

Manni, good to see you making another worthwhile contribution to a thread. I am bothered by this subject, and I think that attacks are more probable that most on this thread thus far, and was curious what other feel.

Jeremy


User currently offlineArtsyman From United States of America, joined Feb 2001, 4745 posts, RR: 33
Reply 9, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1096 times:

I also agree on the part about war is war, if Iraq is attacked, then they have the right to fight back, that said, I think even if Iraq isnt attacked, the threat of terror in the US is just the same

Jeremy


User currently offlineB747-437B From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 21 hours ago) and read 1095 times:

sorry - wrong thread

[Edited 2003-02-07 20:22:39]

User currently offlineRyanb741 From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2002, 3221 posts, RR: 15
Reply 11, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1075 times:

Hi Artsyman

In relation to your 1-3, I think the chances of those things happening are low because (and I'll go by category)

1 - US security has wised up to this, and intelligence resources are at 100%. Chances are the people would be caught in the planning stage. Of course, it is 100% likely someone out there is planning another 9/11, but successfully pulling it off is a long shot

2 - No way. If the terrorists had those weapons they'd have used them already, probably on Israel first. 9/11 was devastating but was relatively low tech. I can't see the terrorists being able to successfuly deploy those weapons, not without a country like Iraq/North Korea helping them. And you can bet Western intelligence is absolutely crawling over those places

3 -Again, like above. I'm sure terrorists might have Nuclear materials, but turning them into a bomb is something entirely different. Possible someone might try a 'dirty bomb', but getting it into the US ain't going to be a piece of cake. I really can't see it happening.


One further prediction -

A nuclear conflict taking place in North Korea within the next 2 years - 90%  Sad It is almost inevitable I'm afraid. If I was Bush and Blair, I'd be going after those mothers first.



I used to think the brain is the most fascinating part of my body. But, hey, who is telling me that?
User currently offline747-451 From United States of America, joined Oct 2000, 2417 posts, RR: 6
Reply 12, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1060 times:

1) 50-50%

2) 50-50%

3) 10%

4) 99.9%

5) 90%

6) There is never a justification for terrorism, period. There is no "moral equivelency" or "one man's terrorist is anothers Freedom fighter" (becuase we have supposedly evolved from that - or atleast some cultures have). If there is another act of terrorism on our soil, we should use what ever "severe" weapons are needed to obliterate the perpatrator and do sufficent enough damage to act as a deterent, regardless of "collateral damage" since all terrorism does is commit casualties on the "collaterals" to begin with.


User currently offlineTWAL1011 From United States of America, joined Nov 2003, 206 posts, RR: 1
Reply 13, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1040 times:

1) 50%

2) 10% - The spread of a biological attack can't be contained by borders. Others will be affected, including those not intended.

3) 50% - for a dirty bomb
10% - for a real nuke.

The dirty bomb is more feasible. Easier to achieve and high marks for psychological damage. Real nukes? Someone else besides the terrorists will be held accountable for the tremendous loss of life and effect on the world economy.

4) 100% - He secretly destroyed his Anthax??? Why? Yeah, right. (Just for starters)

5) 95% - Saddam will not hesitate to use whatever he has when he knows his hours are numbered.

6) Against a military target? Sure. All is fair in love and war. If Saddam can reach our bases, so be it. As an attack on U.S. civilians? Of course not. We won't attack his. No modern, civilized country would attack civilians.


User currently offlineUal747 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 7 months 2 weeks 4 days 6 hours ago) and read 979 times:

TWAL1011, laughing my ass off over here. Since when has Iraq been modern and civilzed in international policy, and even more so in domestic policy? You can bet your ass that if he could, he'd be killing as many Americans as he could get his hands on. First of all, he doesn't have the technology to be surgical about bombing as the US does, and secondly, he doesn't give a rat's ass.

UAL747


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