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Bush And Blair's Approval Ratings Up.  
User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4445 posts, RR: 5
Posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 20 hours ago) and read 1299 times:

For all of those naysayers and anti-American board members, I have the latest and greatest news. Currently the President of the United States George Bush has an approval rating of 67%, meanwhile his close allie the Prime Minister of England Tony Blair has had his approval rating for dealing with Iraq jump from 35% to 50% in only a week. Oh times they are a changing.

Here is to President Bush's reelection in 2004. Forgive me, but I'm not sure when Blair is up for reelection.

Bush in 2004
Guiliani in 2008


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
41 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineADG From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1258 times:

Yes, I saw the article on this ... 750 people were asked their opinion, that's bound to represent a reasonable part of the community.




ADG


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4445 posts, RR: 5
Reply 2, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1254 times:

If the poll asked 750 people of varying wealth and education the same questions, then yes, it should show the vast part of the community. I believe that the poll was done nationwide. Don't be upset because your minority is growing smaller!


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16228 posts, RR: 57
Reply 3, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1249 times:

As CX747 said, a random statistical survey of 750 people from a cross section of society is usually very accurate.

In this case much to the absolute hatred of ADG though.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offline9V-SVE From Singapore, joined Nov 2001, 2066 posts, RR: 2
Reply 4, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1248 times:

High Approval Ratings during the war do not always say the results of the next election. Take Bush's daddy. His rating skyrocketed during the Gulf War I, but they dropped and he lost the election to that womanizer Clinton.

User currently offlinePHX-LJU From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1243 times:

To be fair, Blair and Bush are not the only ones enjoying great poll results right now:

http://www.guardian.co.uk/Iraq/Story/0,2763,925152,00.html

SHORT EXCERPT: Opinion polls in France show that approval for Jacques Chirac's anti-war policy have reached 90%, the highest recorded rating for any government programme since surveys started here in 1938.

http://www.expatica.com/germany.asp?pad=190,205,&item_id=30059

SHORT EXCERPT: German Chancellor Gerhard Schroeder's popularity has grown since the start of the war in Iraq as his Social Democratic Party (SPD) profits from the government's opposition to military action, a leading opinion poll confirmed Friday.

As far as Bush's high numbers are concerned, well, they are to be expected at a time of war. They were even higher after 9/11, but they dropped -- slowly but surely -- later on. Earlier this year, one poll even showed that a generic Democrat would defeat Bush. Of course, 2004 is a long way away; I trust that most Americans will realize that he Bush is simply bad for our nation (in so many ways), and elect someone else. This great nation simply deserves a better president.


User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4445 posts, RR: 5
Reply 6, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1243 times:

You are correct in your statement about the elder Bush's Presidency. His numbers started to slip when the economy went south. Currently the economy is south and we have gone to war. Despite this, his approval ratings have slightly increased. It is my opinion that once the war is over, the economy will rebound with renewed enthusiasm and we will see 4 more years of Bush in the White House.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlineCX747 From United States of America, joined May 1999, 4445 posts, RR: 5
Reply 7, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1241 times:

I'm sorry but I just find it remarkable that you continue to think Bush is bad for the country. Thankfully most people do not agree with you! I remember the poll regarding Democratic hopefuls against Bush. I would love to see it redone right now. 2004 is a long way away. More than likely, the economy will have rebounded, we will have freed Iraq along with continueing our war on terrorism.


"History does not long entrust the care of freedom to the weak or timid." D. Eisenhower
User currently offlinePHX-LJU From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1231 times:

Only time will tell, CX747. BTW, don't think that Bush is bad for our country just because of this war; I base my opinion on a whole list of his policies and attitudes.

Interestingly, some other pro-war leaders are NOT enjoying success at the polls (quite the opposite, in fact):

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/europe/2896409.stm

SHORT EXCERPT: In contrast to Tony Blair, who has increased his popularity since the war started, there is little cheer for Mr Berlusconi in this week's opinion polls.
Only 35% of Italians are behind him.


http://www.nytimes.com/2003/04/04/international/europe/04MADR.html?ex=1050037200&en=47b37a11bfea2490&ei=5062&partner=GOOGLE

SHORT EXCERPT: "War sinks Aznar's popularity," proclaimed El País, Spain's leading daily newspaper and a critic of the Aznar government. A poll taken for the paper five days into the invasion showed Spaniards citing the war as the second main issue of concern, after unemployment. Mr. Aznar's approval rating, already flagging after seven years in power, had fallen 10 points in three months.




User currently offlineSabena 690 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1211 times:

All those polls are certainly very accurate  Yeah sure

I haven't seen one good US poll until now... so this one will certainly be highly accurate  Yeah sure

And 750 people in a large country like America means NOTHING. Get first some survey - methods before you say things like that...

DUMP Bush 2004!!!!


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16228 posts, RR: 57
Reply 10, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1208 times:

I haven't seen one good US poll until now... so this one will certainly be highly accurate

How do you define a "good" poll? One that appeals to your own political persuasion?

And 750 people in a large country like America means NOTHING. Get first some survey - methods before you say things like that...

Actually, it can be highly accurate. Any basic understanding of statistics can show that small sample sizes can be very accurate.





Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineSabena 690 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1203 times:

Yyz, you don't need much insight to know how diversified the culture and people are from the East Coast to the West Coast. Do you actually know how less 750 people is for a survey of a country with all those millions and millions of inhabitants?

One that appeals to your own political persuasion?

 Yeah sure

One that appeals to the RULES! But following the rules is apparently a big problem in the US, certainly if your monkey president doesn't follow them already.

I have a book of 420 pages of theory about surveys to learn within one month for exams, so don't say I know nothing about this.


User currently offlineADG From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1200 times:

hee hee ...750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti americanism (although the rest of us can ponder the relevance of his ranting, guess he feels if he says it often enough it'll become true).





ADG


User currently offlineBanco From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 14752 posts, RR: 54
Reply 13, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1186 times:

750 people is a relatively small sample, yes, but it remains likely that provided it was done properly (and I see no evidence to suggest it wasn't) it should give a reasonably accurate figure. Psephological history shows that opinion polls of around a thousand quoted respondents provide an accurate figure to within three percentage points. Ten thousand respondents only narrows the accuracy level by a further percentage point at most. In truth, it simply doesn't provide a much more accurate reflection of public opinion when larger samples are taken.

The chances are that it is probably accurate.



She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot.
User currently offlineStaffan From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1185 times:

While one should never believe the exact figures of any statistics, they usually give a pretty rough idea on people's opinions.

Staffan


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16228 posts, RR: 57
Reply 15, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1174 times:

750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti americanism

This shows how little you know about statistics. Or perhaps how unwilling you are to accept poll results not to your liking.

ADG. In her little world.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineJetService From United States of America, joined Feb 2000, 4798 posts, RR: 12
Reply 16, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1171 times:

Sabena/ADG, quit your crying, geeez. I hate to tell you, but these polls actually do have a degree of accuracy. They're generally within 3 or 4 % points. We don't have just one poll either. Almost all news agencies and several private polling companies run these all the time and they are all saying pretty much the same thing. Suck it up and move on for godssake!


"Shaddap you!"
User currently offlineSabena 690 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1168 times:

No Yyz, YOU in your unwilling world, because YOU don't want to know that this poll is crap, only because it reflects YOUR opinion.

It is impossible to generalise the opinion of 750 people over 285 million people, therefore the differences are just TOO BIG.

Bull sh*t, all I can say...

BTW, the same counts for the polls in Europe, for example that more than 90% is against the war...


User currently offlineSabena 690 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 12 hours ago) and read 1166 times:

JetService, thanks for saying once again you don't know what you are talking about.

Most polls are indeed made with an accurracy of 95%, with an additional 3-4% it can change. This has one condition: the ones who gave their opinions have to be representative for the whole population. And this is impossible with 750 people in this case, if you want to generalise it over the whole American population.

So say true things, or shut up.


User currently offlineAlpha 1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1162 times:

You are correct in your statement about the elder Bush's Presidency. His numbers started to slip when the economy went south. Currently the economy is south and we have gone to war. Despite this, his approval ratings have slightly increased.

Before the war, his numbers were slipping badly. The American people do rally around their president during a conflict, and this one is no different. But when the conflict ends, what then? What if the occupation goes badly? What happens when people focus on the economy again, and Bush's mismanagement of that? He may find out a lesson his father found out-war popularity only lasts about as long as the war is going on, then reality sinks in again.

If this economy doesn't make a 180, and soon, Bush could have a world of hurt come the election.

I'm sorry but I just find it remarkable that you continue to think Bush is bad for the country.

He has lunatics around him like Cheney, Rumsfeld and Ashcroft; his only answer to the economy is "cut taxes", which can do as much harm sometimes as good. He's trying to pack the courts with right-wing extremists. Through acts like the Patriot Act, he's and his nut running Justice are trying to get rid of basic personal freedoms. He's tarnished our image in two short years, by pushing us into a war that was not necessary. He's bad for our country.

But with a continent like the US, with all those states, so far located from eachother, all those differences, it is IMPOSSIBLE to have a 'good' survey.

Not really, Sabena 690. Polls aren't perfect, but if you look, most say they have a margain of error of 3 to 4%, and, for the most part, they are fairly accurate. In the last presidential eleciton, they were basically dead-on in saying the election was a dead-heat. In '92, on the final day of polling, Bill Clinton was 6% up on George Bush, and won the election by 8%. So it isn't impossible.

I think we rely way to much on polls, but they are, for the most part, pretty accurate in the snapshots they take for a given point in time.


User currently offlineGlenn From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 20, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1160 times:

Alpha, the ending of the war has been solved. Move into Syria  Smile/happy/getting dizzy possibly Korea but they didn't so it too easily the last time, gotta think a bit more on them
 Smile/happy/getting dizzy


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16228 posts, RR: 57
Reply 21, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1160 times:

It is impossible to generalise the opinion of 750 people over 285 million people, therefore the differences are just TOO BIG.

Statistical surveys can be very accurate with small sample sizes.The companies that conduct these are very good at getting accurate sample sizes.

No Yyz, YOU in your unwilling world, because YOU don't want to know that this poll is crap, only because it reflects YOUR opinion.

Someone is angry over nothing......

Bull sh*t, all I can say...

So it seems....





Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineTechRep From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1155 times:


CX747,

You posted something positive about Bush which the rabble can't handle. Those liberal in nature find this information offensive and will attack your source as incredible. These same individuals who have no professional credentials with regard to statistics all of a sudden can make comments that it is flawed. They offer no proof, evidence or any facts to that back up their argument, other than the typical sarcasm. At least back up your words with some facts, it makes you just that much more credible when you do.

Recently Gallup Organization, one of the more trusted and respected statistical survey houses, did a similar study and came up with very similar results.



Let's see how people who know what they are talking about go about doing these things.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/releases/pr030403.asp

These results are based on telephone interviews with a randomly selected national sample of 1,012 adults, aged 18 and older, conducted March 29-30, 2003. For results based on this sample, one can say with 95% confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is ±3 percentage points.

Notice Gallup only polled 1,012 people and the numbers were very close, in fact the numbers for Bush on the new Poll have dropped slightly.

Another point I noticed was how ADG replied. In her hunger to belittle and befuddle YyZ717 she actually flip-flopped on her argument.

REPLY 1 - Yes, I saw the article on this ... 750 people were asked their opinion, that's bound to represent a reasonable part of the community.

ADG

REPLY 12 - hee hee ...750 people asked out of 285 million .. there is no way they can get a fair and reasonable "demographic" out of that, no matter how much yyz bitches about anti Americanism (although the rest of us can ponder the relevance of his ranting, guess he feels if he says it often enough it'll become true).

ADG


Blinded....Ooops

Sabena690 apparently you think that these polling houses, some who have been in business 75 years just call people randomly out of the phone book. These are scientific surveys conducted by, well scientists duh. Here is how it works :

FACT NOT FICTION!! It is not impossible Sabena690 read on and follow the link.

The Number Of Interviews Or Sample Size Required

One key question faced by Gallup statisticians: how many interviews does it take to provide an adequate cross-section of Americans? The answer is, not many -- that is, if the respondents to be interviewed are selected entirely at random, giving every adult American an equal probability of falling into the sample. The current US adult population in the continental United States is 187 million. The typical sample size for a Gallup poll which is designed to represent this general population is 1,000 national adults.

The actual number of people which need to be interviewed for a given sample is to some degree less important than the soundness of the fundamental equal probability of selection principle. In other words - although this is something many people find hard to believe - if respondents are not selected randomly, we could have a poll with a million people and still be significantly less likely to represent the views of all Americans than a much smaller sample of just 1,000 people - if that sample is selected randomly.

Here is the link to get more information.

http://www.gallup.com/help/FAQs/poll1.asp


TechRep

GWB 2004'
Jeb Bush 2008'


User currently offlineGlenn From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2005, 0 posts, RR: 0
Reply 23, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1151 times:

I think you are mis reading ADGs post

To me she is making a comment the first time as a sarcastic remark that 750 people represent the majority

Which is what she says in the 12 post

but then I have only read a snippet from you which is probably designed that way to twist the truth


User currently offlineAlpha 1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (11 years 1 week 5 days 11 hours ago) and read 1148 times:

TechRep, trust me, Jeb Bush won't have a prayer in '08, so you can stop dreaming about that right now. I still think, unless this Bush Recession doesn't end soon, that GWB will have more trouble getting re-elected than you can ever imagine.

25 TechRep : If I misread it I apologize ADG, I Read it like 3 times and thats what I took away from it. TechRep
26 Goingboeing : CX747 - means nothing really....what were Bush's daddy's approval ratings during "Operation Desert Storm"? I believe they were higher than juniors. Bu
27 Post contains images MxCtrlr : PHX-LJU, I trust that most Americans will realize that he Bush is simply bad for our nation (in so many ways), and elect someone else. This great nati
28 Heavymetal : Regarding statistics. Being in the media and following the polls, I've noticed: There seems like there will ALWAYS be betwen 28 and 35 percent of Amer
29 Sabena 690 : TechRep, I suggest: just believe your polls. I may say what I want, you will never believe me just because I am anti Bush. I recommend you to go to a
30 TechRep : Sabena690, You post no counter-proof to support your argument, just the standard Anti-Bush rhetoric. An organization that has been around 75 years and
31 Sabena 690 : TechRep, give me all the details of the 750 people sample (question, everything),... and I'll have a look this evening. For the rest: you would be sur
32 ADG : TechRep, Wake up mate ... you live in a country of 285000000 people, a 750 person poll is worthless. That doesn't even cover 1 from every city, let al
33 TechRep : ADG, What basis is it worthless can you prove it? Read Reply 30 your no expert I'll believe the Experts over a house mom. TechRep
34 CX747 : Thanks for the info Techrep, I was going to look for that type of material today but alas my roomate used the comp for an extended amount of time. I a
35 ADG : TechRep, I hope your not inferring that "house moms" are stupid or anything because that's a large percentage of the population, but a portion of the
36 Post contains images PHX-LJU : CX747 wrote: "I'm guessing that the far leftist homosexual flying heavymetal will vote for anyone against Bush, but his overall status as it is puts h
37 TechRep : ADG, Typical rant, use lots of expletives, always talk around the subject and show no proof to back anything up. Since you'll never admit your wrong w
38 Post contains images Glenn : Tech rep, it's all there, you just need to read the posts for what its worth, rqather then trying to find a way to belittle ADG. I have tried for year
39 Goingboeing : What basis is it worthless can you prove it? Read Reply 30 your no expert I'll believe the Experts over a house mom. Did this poll of 750 people inclu
40 Erj190 : Instead of discussing the technical characteristics of the survey, it would be better to check if those numbers make sense. In any country, whenever
41 CX747 : First off, the Administration never lied to the public. I watch the news all the time and I never heard of a 2-3 day war. Before this started, I thoug
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