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Polls Confirm: Bush Is Losing Support  
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4525 posts, RR: 15
Posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1702 times:

For all those who thump their chests and brag about how Bush is going to "beat kerry's ass" in this election, the opinion polls on his approval rating don't seem to agree.

While his losing support is not translating into significant gains by Kerry, it does say that an opportunity is presenting itself, and if Kerry actually gets on the ball and uses this to his advantage, there might be some interesting results this November.


Bush is, slowly, crumbling. And I'm not going to lie to you here...Bush is the favourite to win the election. and Kerry so far hasn't done enough to define himself and make an impact. But the tide...may just now be turning.


See the following links to confirm:

Newsweek has Bush's approval rating down to 42%, the lowest of his presidency and following a track that incumbents who lost re-election took. Not good for Bush. It shows Bush and Kerry essentially tied when matched up.
http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/ap/20040515/ap_on_el_pr/bush_approval&cid=694&ncid=1963&sid=96378798


Gallup has Bush's approval rating down to 46%, again, lower than previously. And a matchup has Kerry winning over Bush 51% to 46%.
http://www.cnn.com/2004/ALLPOLITICS/05/14/bush.kerry/index.html

In Ohio, considered a must-win by both Bush and Kerry and probably the state that decides who wins this election, Kerry is leading Bush 49% to 42%.
http://americanresearchgroup.com/ohg/


I find this interesting. Especially because, no president who ever won re-election ever got below 50% at this time in their re-election bid and won. There is a chance, given the nature of current events, that things could change and Bush recovers. But, from a historical perspective...Bush could be in trouble:

http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story&u=/washpost/20040514/pl_washpost/a25367_2004may13&cid=1802&ncid=1926


67 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 1, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1661 times:

Geeze, who would have guessed with all the bad news out of Iraq  Insane


OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlinePU151 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1662 times:

I have a question about American polling. When you have a support poll, like Bush=50%, Kerry=50%, is this an overall polling (number of people in the country) or does it take into account the different states?

What I mean is, in 2000, Gore won the overall vote, but lost because of the state electoral colleges (I think that's how it is called), in which Bush had more delegates.


User currently offlineB757300 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 4114 posts, RR: 22
Reply 3, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1663 times:

:Yawn: National polls are useless since we don't elect the President based on the popular vote. One must look @ polls of each state, not nationally which are basically worthless for the above reason as well as there is no way a poll of 500-1000 people can gage the pulse of the nation.

State polls show Bush tied with Kerry in California, ahead in Oregon, and ahead or tied in several other states that Gore won in 2000 and ahead in every state he won in 2000 with maybe the exception of Ohio. (One poll puts Kerry ahead but not confirmed by any other poll.) Still other polls show Bush maintaining a national lead but of course these aren't reported.

My favorite poll is this one.

http://www.boston.com/news/politics/president/bush/articles/2004/05/13/poll_suggests_negative_ads_having_effect



"There is no victory at bargain basement prices."
User currently offlineDiamond From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3279 posts, RR: 63
Reply 4, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1645 times:

Bush could very possibly be re-elected.

But it won't be because he is the best man for the job. It will be because of all the acts of desperation that the GOP relies upon to get what they want.

And they have a lot of tricks up their sleeves. They could indeed succeed.



Blank.
User currently offlineRsmith6621a From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 194 posts, RR: 2
Reply 5, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1640 times:



Diamond said:
>>>>And they have a lot of tricks up their sleeves. They could indeed succeed.<<<

Yah!!!....Like lower gas prices and finding Bin Laden to name two.



Did You Ever Think Freedom Could Be this Bad
User currently offlineRev3oh2 From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 141 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1631 times:
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But it won't be because he is the best man for the job. It will be because of all the acts of desperation that the GOP relies upon to get what they want.

Are you saying that they possess evil magic which turns Kerry votes into Bush votes?



...let us run with perseverance the race marked out for us.
User currently offlineJBirdAV8r From United States of America, joined Jun 2001, 4491 posts, RR: 21
Reply 7, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 14 hours ago) and read 1627 times:

But it won't be because he is the best man for the job. It will be because of all the acts of desperation that the GOP relies upon to get what they want.

That mean, old, dirty, underhanded, lying GOP.

OTOH, we have the Dems over here on the other side, smelling like roses, who have never known the words "acts of desperation"...who would've thought?



I got my head checked--by a jumbo jet
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4525 posts, RR: 15
Reply 8, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1616 times:

Hey, the democratic party has its fair share of problem people as well. But when it comes to Kerry vs. Bush, I feel much safer with a man like Kerry in the highest office of the nation.

B757300, I suggest you have a look at this article posted on a polling site that has a reputation for being GOP-leaning..that goes against what you say. National polls DO matter.

Click:

http://www.rasmussenreports.com/Keeping%20State%20Polls%20in%20Perspective.htm

Excerpt: "April 25, 2004--Many people have written recently with various forms of the same message: "National polls don't matter in the Presidential Race. As we learned four years ago, the only thing that counts is the Electoral College."

That perspective is understandable, but wrong."


Continued article at the link above.


User currently offlineFunfLyer From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 9, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1611 times:

Thats great that ONE poll that polls maybe 5000 people out of 200 million sum odd voters.


Yes this info. is very very true.


Get Real!



Who cares about status?
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4525 posts, RR: 15
Reply 10, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1605 times:

How about you get realistic: It is impossible to poll all the residents of a state, or a country. You're lucky to get 5,000, even luckier to get 10,000. I've never seen a poll, aside from official elections, that covered more than 20,000 people and those are very rare themselves.


Scientific polling, even if it uses single-digit thousands, can come very close to the reflection of the population as a whole, that's why they have "margins of error". There is a formula for finding different groups of people and asking them the same question then pooling all the results together to get a cross-section of the larger population and their opinions.


If this same poll said Bush was ahead by 30 points you'd all believe it in a heartbeat. It's just cause Kerry's ahead that makes you try to discredit this data. Be realistic, the only poll that stands a chance of reaching every adult over 18 is actual elections, and even those only draw in a percentage of the whole population.


User currently offlineFunfLyer From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 866 posts, RR: 0
Reply 11, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 13 hours ago) and read 1602 times:

It's just cause Kerry's ahead that makes you try to discredit this data.

What the *#** are you smoking????


Kerry is NOT in the lead sorry to break your heart.

He is still trailing as always.



Who cares about status?
User currently offlineB2707SST From United States of America, joined Apr 2003, 1370 posts, RR: 59
Reply 12, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 1586 times:

While his losing support is not translating into significant gains by Kerry

Kerry is losing ground as well:

The thinning support for Bush, 57, hasn't pushed Senator John Kerry, the Massachusetts Democrat and presidential candidate, ahead of his opponent. The last Newsweek poll found that Kerry, 60, would have defeated Bush, if the election were held at that time, with 50 percent of the vote to Bush's 43 percent. In the new poll, the candidates are in a statistical tie.

Especially because, no president who ever won re-election ever got below 50% at this time in their re-election bid and won.

Maybe according to Gallup, but not Newsweek:

In May 1996, Clinton garnered a 48 percent approval rating while Reagan's rating reached 54 percent in May 1984, according to Newsweek. Both men were re-elected.

Gerald Ford, who lost his bid for a second term as president, had a 47 percent approval rating in May 1976. George H. W. Bush, who also failed to win re-election, had a 35 percent approval rating in May 1992.


http://quote.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=10000087&sid=aKqkVXdaSwDI&refer=top_world_news

--B2707SS



Keynes is dead and we are living in his long run.
User currently offlineAlpha 1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 12 hours ago) and read 1569 times:

Kerry is NOT in the lead sorry to break your heart.

He is still trailing as always.


Actually, in some polls, Kerry is slightly ahead, and in others, Bush is slightly ahead, both usually around 44 to 47 percent, it seems. So, to say "as always" is a bit of mis-statement.

Bush is in trouble, no doubt, but he still has to be the slight favorite. Not the prohibitive favorite he was last year, but the incumbency in the presidency is a powerful advantage, no matter who wields it.

Kerry, meanwhile, will not gain nor lose a lot between now and the convention. It's just too early, and most Americans don't pay that close attention till after the Major League All Star Break  Smile He can let Bush keep taking body blows from events, without commenting a whole lot. Why shoud he? Events are hurting Bush more than the Democrats right now.

Unless Iraq improves dramtically this summer-and my choice for President notwithstanding, I hope to hell it does, simply as an American-Bush will not win. Consumer prices are rising, and the Fed is going to increase interestes rates. This economy isn't a juggernaut yet, like the one in the 90's, and it's still not on sold gorund, so the economy can still hurt Bush, too.

But again, it's too far off for any conclusions, but things are starting to take shape.


User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 14, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1562 times:

"Scientific Poll"

Isn't that a contradiction in terms.

Again I ask, "Why is this the least bit surprising"

The news has been dominated over the past week with bad news that isn't necessarily the president's fault. If the liberal media where putting up Tulips and butterfly's stories about the president, oddly enough, I would expect a higher approval rating.



OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineAlpha 1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1556 times:

Boy, L-188, talk about a post that said absolutely nothing.

For someone who isn't a "Republican", you sure spend a lot of time kissing up to George W. Bush. Amazing.


User currently offlineRsmith6621a From United States of America, joined Aug 2005, 194 posts, RR: 2
Reply 16, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1551 times:



..............L-188 is really Zel Miller



Did You Ever Think Freedom Could Be this Bad
User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 17, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1543 times:

Nope, not a republican.

Why should I not want to see Alaska seeceed from the US and become it's own nation?

But that is a different topic, Why do you think that speaking out about how amazing that some pro-Kerry people think a poll during a bad week for the president is their highlight of the entertainment year?



OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineAlpha 1 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1543 times:

No, that highlight will come in the fall when someone who isn't a Republican like yourself has to explain why Bush lost the election.  Wink/being sarcastic

I'm sure the take on here from our esteemed conservative friends will be it's all the media's fault.  Laugh out loud


User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 19, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1534 times:

Actually Alpha1 I will be doing the same thing I try and do every night......

TRY AND TAKE OVER THE WORLD






OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineAa61hvy From United States of America, joined Nov 1999, 13977 posts, RR: 57
Reply 20, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1530 times:

We will see who comes out to the polls in November...


Go big or go home
User currently offlinePlanespotting From United States of America, joined Apr 2004, 3539 posts, RR: 5
Reply 21, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 11 hours ago) and read 1523 times:

In summary:

George W Bush kills kittens in his basement in crawford texas and tells little children their parents will eat them if they don't pledge their lives to the advancement of supply side economics



Do you like movies about gladiators?
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4525 posts, RR: 15
Reply 22, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 10 hours ago) and read 1508 times:

Why should I not want to see Alaska seeceed from the US and become it's own nation?

 Yeah sure Oh come on. You really mean to tell me that if John Kerry is elected that Alaska will secceed from the Union?


Really now, L-188...there ARE alternatives to drilling in the ANWR, like the north shelf. You mean to tell me that it is sooooo terribly important to Alaska to have drilling in the ANWR that if we don't, Alaska's residents are going to stomp their feet and whine and break away from the union?


Fine. Go.


User currently offlineL-188 From United States of America, joined Jul 1999, 29836 posts, RR: 58
Reply 23, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1506 times:

No I don't think so Aloha, but we will continue to struggle for that goal.




OBAMA-WORST PRESIDENT EVER....Even SKOORB would be better.
User currently offlineAloha717200 From United States of America, joined Aug 2003, 4525 posts, RR: 15
Reply 24, posted (10 years 7 months 1 week 4 days 9 hours ago) and read 1496 times:

Why, L-188. Why do you personally want to seceed. I know for a fact that not all Alaskans share your opinion...which is all it is...YOUR opinion. Are you somehow connected to the oil industry personally? Is there a vested interest that you have in drilling in the ANWR versus the north shelf? What difference does it make, Alaska still gets an economic boost either way, but the north shelf wouldn't disrupt a protected wildlife refuge. So why should you care? More drilling will happen in Alaska, but why is it all important that it be done in the ANWR to you?



What kind of alaskan government do you want, L-188, and what about the large segments of the population that would rather remain a part of the US....do their opinions count?


I am very curious why it is you feel the way you do. Because you talk about Alaska as a whole deciding to seceed if Kerry is elected...somehow, i dont think you speak for the whole of the population in that regard. This is a serious issue, a state leaving the Union, and you shouldnt just throw something like that around over an issue like this when a VIABLE alternative exists!

And if Alaska feels as you say it does, why doesn't Bush gain 90% of the vote, or heck even 70% of the vote, when matched up against Kerry in state polls? If secession as a result of kerry's election were truly an option, quite a bit more opposition to kerry in your state should exist, shouldn't it?


25 L-188 : Do we really want to get into the way the federal goverment has blatently violated the statehood compact on numerous occasions. Particulaly when it co
26 Aloha717200 : But...what else...I mean isn't there a higher reason for wanting to seceed? Remember, you are talking about the permanent removal of Alaska as part of
27 L-188 : and all the services that it provides for your country Isn't that the definition of a bribe. Give money to the states so that they can't chose the rou
28 Aloha717200 : It's called being part of a country, L-188. All states are provided services under the nation's government. It's not some bribe or special treatment,
29 777236ER : In summary: George W Bush kills kittens in his basement in crawford texas and tells little children their parents will eat them if they don't pledge t
30 Srbmod : As the old saying goes: "Figures lies and liars figure." These polls are nothing more than fuzzy math at best. The margin of error that these polls cl
31 Aloha717200 : However, when many of these "random" polls begin to show the same results, does that mean that the fact that Bush's support is declining suddenly is m
32 BN747 : If electronic voting isn't watched meticuously... that's now Bush's only hope. That is the only way they can get him back into office. The makers of v
33 Ushermittwoch : It's time for the UN to step in and check on those machines. I am smelling fraud...
34 Alpha 1 : If electronic voting isn't watched meticuously... that's now Bush's only hope. Well, you tell how closely it needs watched when the CEO of Deibold, wh
35 Vafi88 : Bush Is Losing Support Isn't it about freakin time??!!??!!??!!?! I'm sorry, but this president is gullible and can't fool a baby.
36 B757300 : As a well known political commentator said recently, polls are taken so often now that they are used to make news, not report the public opinion on it
37 Post contains images Alpha 1 : For once, I kind of agree with B757300. But the fact is, your hero Bush is in a world of trouble right now.
38 Post contains links Alpha 1 : Here is that article, originally from the Cleveland Plain Dealer, about the head of Diebold. And we should trust this company? http://www.commondreams
39 BN747 : Interesting article... permitting Diebold to 'sell' voting machines to anyone is a tantamount to a judge adjudicating a case in which he is the accuse
40 Post contains images IMissPiedmont : "and if Kerry actually gets on the ball and uses this to his advantage... I think he'd best get a start on things right quickly. "How many more polls
41 Alpha 1 : As a lifelong democrat it pains me to say the I will be voting for the shrub this year. I hate me. Not that it's really a first as I voted against Cli
42 N79969 : I don't think it is just the bad news coming out of Iraq. That may have caused the most recent dip in poll numbers but there is a more long term dynam
43 IMissPiedmont : But Kerry need not spend a penny, Alpha. He could simply say something meaningful. As for my leaving the "party", that sounds just a bit as though Kru
44 Alpha 1 : Sorry to dissapoint but I vote for the best choice and Kerry is proving to fall short so far. With only 5 1/2 months to go he has not said one thing o
45 JAL777 : It seems to me that both candidates have about as much presidential qualifications as I do... I will not be voting for either of them.
46 B757300 : It seems to me that both candidates have about as much presidential qualifications as I do... I will not be voting for either of them. John Kerry and
47 JAL777 : John Kerry and Al-Qaeda thank you for your vote. Ah... fuck it. Not even going to bother to respond.
48 Flyboy36y : Actually, you can look at all this from a theological perspective: If GW Bush wins, that is proof that there is no God, or that God likes to get bitch
49 N79969 : B757300, "John Kerry and Al-Qaeda thank you for your vote." You are the type of conservative...actually I don't know if you qualify as a "conservative
50 Post contains images L-188 : I thought Al-Qaeda was supporting Nader
51 Alpha 1 : N79969, as someoen who actually is a responsible conservative, I thank you for finally putting someone like B757300 in his place. Unfortunately, we he
52 Globalexpress : Considering Bush had a lower public vote in the 2000 elections, what difference do these polls make? Furthermore, what difference does the public vote
53 BR715-A1-30 : Pushy Bush, and Scary Kerry, Whatever happened to Vader Nader?
54 Sabena 690 : N79969, as someoen who actually is a responsible conservative, I thank you for finally putting someone like B757300 in his place. Same thanks from my
55 Post contains links Aloha717200 : Now Zogby is confirming Bush's drop as well: http://zogby.com/news/ReadNews.dbm?ID=826 N79969, I also thank you for your comments.
56 Post contains links Superfly : B757300: State polls show Bush tied with Kerry in California, ahead in Oregon Are you sure about that? http://www.cpod.ubc.ca/polls/index.cfm?fuseacti
57 BN747 : Who gives a rat's ass what B757-300 thinks he's already painted himself into the lunatic corner with the other nazi youth. Bottom line is this certain
58 Post contains images Aloha717200 : Kerry is leading Bush by some 13 points or more in California in all recent polls. B757300, are you sure you didn't just make up your polling data?
59 Post contains links Superfly : Aloha717200: Kerry is leading Bush by some 13 points or more in California in all recent polls. Possibly even more. Look at this story from Yahoo. Sch
60 Bruno : Count me in as a Republican that voted for Bush in 2000 that's crossing over to vote for John Kerry in 2004.
61 BN747 : Count me in as a Republican that voted for Bush in 2000 that's crossing over to vote for John Kerry in 2004. That's a pretty big change to acknowledge
62 Post contains images Superfly : Bruno: Are you a police officer? The Police Union was an organization that endorsed Bush in 2000 but Kerry this time around.
63 MaverickM11 : "I bet if there was a way to scrutinize electronic votes in 2000.. you'll find that Bush probably lost in about 10+ other states 'he supposedly won" I
64 Superfly : MaverickM11: I know you hate to be on the losing end of an argument but please spare us the personal attacks. How do you suppose most of the West woul
65 L-188 : As far as Florida goes, Al Gore DID win Florida. Had it not been for Jeb throwing out 19,000+ votes, voter purge list and the butterfly mishap, every
66 Superfly : L-188: Please re-read my sentence you pasted in to your last post. The recounts didn't include the 19,000+ votes thrown out.
67 BN747 : Yeah and remember them calling Florida for Gore too. And then they had to take it back .. esp. After Bush was bitching about them calling Florida too
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