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Hurricane Frances May Hit FL...  
User currently offlinePlanespotterx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 1417 times:

Just been checking out the latest discussion on the NHC and on a few weather forums I visit, and talk is that Frances has a possibility of hitting Florida.
2 Models (GFS and UKMO) have shown the Hurricane making landfall inbetween the Miami and the Daytona Beach area (although I have to stress that these are estimated landfall areas, and the fact that the Hurricane is expected to hit around Friday means that anything can happen until then, and that much of the time the tracks can be as much as 600 miles off-target.)
But still its a feature to keep an eye on, first hit will be Puerto Rica, up to Dominican Republic, to Cuba, and after that we've yet to see what happens.
At the minute Frances is a CAT3, but its possible it may get stronger to CAT4/5 by the end of the weekend.
Another feature to watch for is TD7, near the Carolinas, its expected to take a similar track as Alex, but wont be as strong, winds so far are 55mph sustained, and at 4pm UK time the next advisory will be issued (it may become a TS as the TD is in a "stalled" position right now, and is expected to shift NW by the end of the day.

[Edited 2004-08-28 15:50:03]

39 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineElectraBob From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 1, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 3 hours ago) and read 1402 times:

I've been the watching The Weather Channel here ....Frances is a very well organized storm...could become a Cat 4 before it hits any land areas. Looks like the Southern Bahama Islands could be in big trouble. Labor Day weekend could be very interesting in Southeast Florida....however, it could possibly go south of the Florida peninsula and end up in the Gulf....what it does then, it is too early to tell.

Looks like there is another large wave coming off the coast of Africa...we are now in the peak of peak hurricane season.


User currently offlineUsairways16bwi From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 2, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1394 times:

i hope it dosnt hit Boca Raton, FL. thats where my grandparents live. i was down there when hurricane charlie devastated southwest Florida. it was really bad there. but there was no problems on the atlantic coast, just a little cloudy.

User currently offlineDlx737200 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 3, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days 2 hours ago) and read 1383 times:

God I hope this doesn't hit us here in Orlando. Charley did enough already. There are STILL people without power down here. Luckily, our street NEVER lost power but we were a rare case. If a 4/5 hits us, we're in for some trouble.

User currently offlinePlanespotterx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 1367 times:

BTW TD7 off the Carolinas coast had now become TS Gaston, as predicted..

User currently offlineKFLLSpotter From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 5, posted (10 years 3 weeks 2 days ago) and read 1359 times:

This will definitely be a storm all Floridians should keep a close eye on. All we can all do is pray it wont hit us. This storm by the time it makes landfall could be a strong Cat.4 shifting into a Cat.5 which would cause complete devastation.

User currently offlineDazed767 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (10 years 3 weeks 1 day 17 hours ago) and read 1333 times:

I was without power from Charley for 5 days, and just got cable back today (15 days). Minimal damage (small leak in the roof of the house, 40 or so shingles missing, lots of tree branches every where). It really could have been worse here, although they were saying this area of Orange County got hit the worst. Hope this one turns......

User currently offlineSkyhawk From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 7, posted (10 years 3 weeks 1 day 15 hours ago) and read 1310 times:

Usairways16bwi-I really don't know where you got your information that the Atlantic Coast of Florida wasn't hurt during Charley's escapades. My son lives in Daytona Beach. He has told me that they were without power for quite a few days, the schools in Volusia County(Daytona Beach) were closed for a week, there was a couple of people killed there, and numerous homeless because of the storm. So where does your information come from? Glad to know though that your grandparents had no problems and hope that is the case this time too.

User currently offlineDelta767300ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (10 years 3 weeks 1 day 11 hours ago) and read 1293 times:

Crap, I know for sure we cant go through another one! My area in Central Florida was hit pretty hard by Cat 3 winds. If it makes landfall at the coast as a Cat 5 in might drop 1 Cat to a 4, However Charley proved landfall didnt weaken the storm. This is very very bad news. Frances looks like Hurricane Andrew on the sattelite photo.

-Delta767300ER


User currently offlinePlanespotterx From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (10 years 3 weeks 1 day 7 hours ago) and read 1285 times:

Just an update on TS Gaston, the system is expected to strengthen during today, and that winds are currently at 70mph sustained (just another 5mph means it will be a CAT1 Hurricane), estimates give the landfall between Charleston and Georgetown at 1500Z (BST.)
Winds are expected to strengthen during today to around 90 mph, as ever with these systems the wind speeds and areas hit can often be slightly "off-target."
Gaston is currently moving NW at 7mph, and is expected to track north and then northeast up the Eastern seaboard past NYC where it will eventually depart around Newfoundland on Thursday.
Hurricane warnings are in-force around the South/North Carolina coasts.


User currently offlineN6376m From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 10, posted (10 years 3 weeks 1 day ago) and read 1263 times:

at 2PM on Friday the 13th the NHC had the eye of Charley coming within 15 miles of my town. The storm turned suddenly and we didn't even get a drop of rain. A forecast out 7 days has a confidence factor of about zero.

Now, having lived through Andrew in Miami, I'll tell you never to take a hurricane lightly but to be worrying about a storm seven days out borders on hysteria.


User currently offlineCancidas From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 11, posted (10 years 3 weeks 23 hours ago) and read 1251 times:



http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ftp/graphics/AT06/refresh/AL0604W5+GIF/291453W5.gif for the full size if it gets cut off.


User currently offlineRedngold From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (10 years 3 weeks 19 hours ago) and read 1231 times:

If Frances hits FL, it will just go towards boosting my theory... that the 1920s were not a fluke, and that the last 20 years have seen a boom in Florida without respect for its natural history.

Here's the essay I shared with my weather aficionados on Yahoo! Ohio Weather Group:

To one and all - this is my soapbox statement for the time being...

Florida should have known better.

Over the last couple of years, people have been talking about unusual
weather -- El Nino, exceptional dryness in the southwest, drought in
the western half of the grain belt, and recurrent hurricanes along the
East Coast.

Unusual? Not in my mind.

Whether or not you believe in global warming, we seem to be seeing an
increase in dangerous weather events here in the U.S. But how much of
it is our own fault? We have built in the desert on speculation that
the current rainfall amounts, irrigation and aqueducts will be enough
to sustain growth. But we forget that there's a reason why it is
called the "desert." We have built on floodplains and called recent
events "hundred year floods," forgetting that there's a reason why
they're called "floodplains." We have built on low-lying coastal areas
around the Everglades, forgetting that the Everglades were always a
swamp. Even here in Cleveland, we've built in areas that used to be
wetlands, and now people are up in arms because their basements have
flooded.

We have been blessed with "good" weather for so long that we forget
what "bad" really is. In my opinion, what we've seen is a swing back
towards the normal, which is becoming increasingly inconvenient as
we've taken advantage of abnormally calm and predictable scenarios.

Global warming? I don't know. We don't have enough records to really
determine the long-term cycles on this earth. What I would do, though,
is look at the history we do know - for example, that Florida was
regularly hit by hurricanes well before the buildup of coastal areas.
We forget about the 1920s hurricanes that killed hundreds of people in
Miami and around Lake Okeechobee. Other histories tell us about
cyclical droughts in the Midwest, and a southwestern U.S. that was
uninhabitable except in tiny enclaves nestled atop mesas or in canyons.

We've come to expect that weather will be predictable. What seems more
predictable to me is our own belief that we can tame nature for our own
use. A healthy respect would be more wise.

---

redngold


User currently offlineRedngold From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (10 years 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 1213 times:



User currently offlineFlymia From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (10 years 3 weeks 16 hours ago) and read 1211 times:

Skyhawk: He must have meant Southeast Florida. We only saw on thunderstorm around 3am in Friday the 13th. Thats it. And some 30MPH winds. Hope this thing does not hit Miami direct that for sure. Right now I really hope everyone in the Bahamas will be alright. This thing is going to be a Cat 5 for sure.

User currently offlineDelta767300ER From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 15, posted (10 years 2 weeks 6 days 20 hours ago) and read 1178 times:

She was a Cat 4 yesterday with winds of 145 MPH but she's weakened down to 120 MPH right now. If we get hit by another Hurricane I am going to try to move back to Atlanta. I am sick of these damn things!

-Delta767300ER


User currently offlineRedngold From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (10 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1169 times:

Large hurricanes like Frances (which could cover the entire state of Connecticut right now) often undergo fluctuations in intensity and eyewall replacement cycles during which the eye seems to disappear. The lowered intensity to Cat. 3 doesn't mean she can't strengthen again!

User currently offlineTanyaluvs2fly From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 17, posted (10 years 2 weeks 6 days 19 hours ago) and read 1161 times:

I'm suppost to fly into TPA next monday... blah


User currently offlineTbar220 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 18, posted (10 years 2 weeks 6 days ago) and read 1132 times:

An update on Frances, the storm is strengthening and is right now looking to be quite the storm. The track is pretty much staying the saame and is expected to make landfall sunday morning.





The wind speed probabilities chart shows the current forecast that it will make landfall as a Cat 4. Pretty rotten for the residents of FL, I feel bad for them especially after Charley.


User currently offlineRedngold From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 19, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1115 times:

Anyone else see that Charley and Frances could score a nice big "X" across Florida?

redngold


User currently offlineTom in NO From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1106 times:

Yep, looks like Daytona Beach is targeted again. Though also, I've been noticing the last couple of days as I check the 5-day forecast track that it continues to move to the right, moving landfall further and further north along Florida's east coast.


Thoughts and prayers go out to wherever this nsaty storm ends up.

Tom at MSY


User currently offlineN312RC From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 21, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1094 times:

This storm is really still too far out to sea to really tell.. I'm down here in Jacksonville and I think everybody is holding their breath... The next few days will indicate whether or not I evacuate here and move south to Sarasota for the weekend. Last I heard, on the current forecast track it was supposed to make landfall south of Jacksonville, in St. Augustine or near that area.



User currently offlineRedngold From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 22, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 1081 times:

The hurricane is so huge that it's going to cover half of Florida before the eye even makes landfall. Let's hope she loses some power and size first. Pray for a Lili (the one that was Cat. 4 just off the coast of Louisiana and weakened to Cat. 2 just before landfall.)

redngold


User currently offlineFlymia From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 23, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1072 times:

The storm really is not that big in area. The track is changing and the storm is moving faster. I will be sure to update you guys once here in Miami we get the 23:00 est advisory. Miami news is the first to get it even before the Weather Channel since the Hurricane center is in Miami.

User currently offlineTbar220 From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 24, posted (10 years 2 weeks 5 days 14 hours ago) and read 1068 times:

Actually, the faster the storm is moving the better. In terms of inland flooding due to heavy rains and storm surge, a faster moving storm is better. In terms of winds, a faster moving storm only means stronger winds (on the northern half of the storm).

25 Flymia : The 23:00 advosory moves the project track more south towards the Metro area of Miami. Broward and Plam Beach in the Northern Counties. It is way to e
26 767ALLTHEWAY : Here in Charleston, SC, the EOC is taking no chances, T.S. Gaston did quite a bit of damage and that was only a tropical storm. With two more days or
27 Post contains images NoelG : Oh joy - and me who's meant to be flying into MIA on Saturday! We're keeping a close eye on this hurricane - thought we'd got off getting affected wit
28 ElectraBob : Heard something quite interesting this morning on The Weather Channel....the Eastern coastline of Florida, from Melbourne Northward (of course, this i
29 N312RC : If you look at all the computer models, three of them track upwards toward Jacksonville (Including the UKMET model which has it making landfall in Duv
30 Mriya : Posting from here in Vero Beach, FL, I can tell you that we are collectively shitting ourselves. Current models take Frances on a dead-center course t
31 OB1504 : In my opinion Frances is sort of like a second Andrew. Predicted to hit by West Palm Beach but I think that he'll turn at the very last second just li
32 Tanyaluvs2fly : According to yahoo news, they are asking 300,000 people in the Palm Beach Area to be ready to evacuate by 2pm tomorrow...
33 Redngold : Again, just as we think we've got our thumb on nature, nature reminds us it's been around quite a bit longer than us. Good luck, everyone. redngold
34 Post contains images EA CO AS : Here's more of the latest info: Dangerous Hurricane Frances is swirling into the Turks and Caicos islands this afternoon on a relentless course towar
35 Tanyaluvs2fly : I am flying into TPA at 1pm on monday... I want to call sunday night to see how the status of flights are, do you think that they will have any idea i
36 Flymia : It is not looking good. ALL or Florida needs to be alert! Here in the Tri County area Miami-Dade Broward and Palm Beach Schools are closed the next tw
37 MHTMDW : Here we go again. Why don't people who live in hurricane prone areas plan ahead for the inevitable storms. Why in heaven's name is there run on plywoo
38 Cumulonimbus : I am Leaving Baltimore and heading to Florida tomorrow. I witnessed Charley's Devastation firsthand but I do think Frances will be worse. I would not
39 Flymia : Okay 23:00 advisory guys. Hurricane watches for Florida City to Daytona. Projected track might have to move even more west! Bad for the Metro area of
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