Catatonic From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1155 posts, RR: 3 Posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1756 times:
I love drama and this post is no exception...... Bird Flu! Estimated to have a 70% mortality rate! We are all going to die because some man in veitnam liked to sleep with his chickens! Any last requests? Why do all deadly diseases start from around that region anyway (The plague, SARS, Bird Flu etc)??
TriStarEnvy From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 2265 posts, RR: 3
Reply 2, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 19 hours ago) and read 1727 times:
I think some meteor will get us first.
I ain't afraid of any bird flu! I mean, really! To think that there's a chance of getting...(cough!)...a flu....(hack!)...that's.....hey! (hack!!) what...the...hell....growing....a....beak!!!...(cough!) TWEEET!!!! TWEEEEET!!!!! POLLY WANNA CRACKER!!!!!......(thud)
If you don't stand for SOMETHING, you'll fall for ANYTHING.
Canadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 4, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1698 times:
Make no mistake about it, the world will most definitely be faced with another horrendous and deadly pandemic, far worse than the deadly Spanish (actually misnamed, this strain was Asian in origin) flu pandemic of 1918 and the subesquent Asian flu terror of 1957. Scientists and many in the international medical community know all too well we are long overdue for another global pandemic. Only this time, what with mass commercial civil air transport, the effects will be even faster, and deadlier.
The truth of the matter is that many nations, among them many developed ones, are prepared not at all to effectively curtail and eradicate such a pandemic, should it occur within the next 10-15 years, as many in the medical community feel it will strike.
In the 1918 pandemic - H1N1, more than 500,000 people died in the United States alone, and 20 million to 50 million people may have died worldwide. Many people died within the first few days after infection and others died of complications soon after. Nearly half of those who died were young, healthy adults. During the single month of October, influenza killed 196,000 people in the USA, more than twice as many as would die of AIDS during the first 10 years of that epidemic. By the end of the winter of 1918-19, two billion people around the world had come down with this deadly strain of influenza.
Many who were infected succumbed within 24 hours or less.
"The flu outbreak of 1918 was "the most devastating epidemic that we have ever had in history," says John R. La Montagne, chief of infectious diseases at the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases in Bethesda, Md. "And it happened in this century. No one really knows why it occurred, but there's every expectation that if it occurred once, it can occur again." The 1918 influenza pandemic killed as many people in a single year as died in the four-year Black Death, the bubonic plague that ravaged Europe from 1347 to 1351."
"We like to believe such plunder is an ancient relic; whatever was killing people so ruthlessly in 1918 must be something we can treat by now. Modern medicine has given us an influenza vaccine, an anti-influenza drug (amantadine) and plenty of antibiotics to prevent or treat secondary bacterial infections. But in the face of a virus that kills so rapidly, all the antiviral drugs in the physician's armamentarium would be impotent. If a strain similar to the 1918 variant were to emerge today_a strain that, last time around, killed literally overnight _some experts believe that even modern medicine would be helpless to prevent many related deaths."
"Pandemic influenza has historically originated in China_even the misnamed Spanish flu of 1918 had Asian origins_primarily because the country has so many ducks. Wild ducks are the predominant reservoir for influenza. Waterfowl are welcome in China; they prey on many of the pests that would otherwise plague rice crops. Indeed, by some estimates, China has more ducks than it has people. On Chinese farms, ducks live close to people and close to many of the other farm animals that are also influenza reservoirs; the ducks are as likely to be infected with human influenza as with avian. These co-infections provide the ideal medium for genetic reassortment. More trouble erupts on farms where ducks and chickens are raised in proximity to pigs, another common practice in China. A pig that is coinfected with influenza from different species can serve as a mixing vessel for the creation of entirely new strains."
"The cyclical emergence of pandemic influenza offers the opportunity to implement some of the predictive, and possibly preventive, strategies that scientists want to use to head off more exotic viral threats. Influenza has characteristics of many other emerging viruses that make it amenable to "viral traffic control": animal reservoirs that can be monitored for signs of increasing infection; a vaccine that can be tailor-made and administered far more efficiently than it currently is; physicians in far-flung communities who can be enlisted to serve as bellwethers for new viruses and close contact with public-health officials internationally _ especially, in this case, in China."
"This is not simply a dress rehearsal for some bigger, more important disease; pandemic influenza will be, almost without a doubt, a major plague when it emerges, probably in the next several years. The nature of the surface antigens of the current predominant strain of influenza has not changed appreciably since 1968. If history is any guide, we can probably expect a major alteration of those antigens_one big enough to lead to a worldwide outbreak of severe flu, either before the turn of the twentieth century, and if not, most definitely within the first 25 years of the twenty first century."
B757300 From United States of America, joined Dec 2000, 4114 posts, RR: 22
Reply 5, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1681 times:
Quoting AeroWesty (reply 3): You don't get it sleeping with your chickens, unless they're covered in dried chicken dung you have a penchant for inhaling.
While true right now that it only is being passed from animal to person, all the virus has to do is mutate just a micro amount and it will be able to be transferred from person to person. There have been a few reports that it has already jumped person to person but that hasn't be confirmed yet.
Canadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 6, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1680 times:
At the close of the First World War, when Spanish Flu appeared, the world was a very different place. Since then, outstanding advances in our knowledge of the germ world have been made, adding dramatically to our repertoire of medical wizardry. Surely what happened back then couldn't happen again.
Or could it?
During the 1918-1919 fall period the number of Americans who died from influenza is estimated at 675,000. Of those, almost 200,000 deaths were recorded in the month of October 1918 alone. Worldwide, the mortality figure for the full pandemic is believed to stand somewhere between 30 to 40 million. So, with the world population today having more than tripled in the intervening years, what is to stop a modern flu pandemic from claiming upwards of 150 to 300 million lives? The answer, it seems, is nothing at all.
Excerpts from two articles:
"Today, of course, we have vaccines and antiviral drugs. But in the Third World, at least, these combatants are in very short supply. In India, where the Spanish Flu is thought to have culled more than 10 million from the population, public health care is still notoriously deficient. In China, with a population one third larger again, the situation is not much better. Even for developed countries, where vaccines are readily available, the fraction of the population that routinely subjects itself to inoculation generally hovers around 10 percent. In the event that the public were to receive adequate warnings of an impending pandemic, it's likely of course that this number could be significantly increased. But even then, it may not matter. By their nature pandemics tend to take us by surprise. The next influenza strain that ravages the human population will probably not be the one we were planning to encounter."
"If all this seems a little alarmist in nature, consider for a moment the recent controversy surrounding what Robert Webster, chairman of the Department of Virology and Molecular Biology at Saint Jude Children's Research Hospital in Memphis, Tennessee, has called The Hong Kong Incident."
"In 1997 epidemiologists and public health officials from around the world got their first glimpse of an entirely new variety of human influenza. Known as subtype H5N1 for the surface proteins which the virus carries, the new strain had only ever previously been observed in birds. Ominously, the effect of H5N1 on poultry had earned it the evocative title of "Chicken Ebola." And when it surfaced in the human population of Hong Kong last year it proved to be almost as deadly."
"How deadly? Even with the advantages of intensive-care treatment, fully one third of the first 18 confirmed cases never recovered. They died. The numbers are suggestive of the death tolls suffered by immunologically-isolated Alaskan villages in 1918, where, in some cases, half the population was lost to the disease. In Hong Kong, bird-to-human contact is believed to have been the transmission route. Fearing a public health crisis, city officials in December of 1997 ordered the slaughter of Hong Kong's entire poultry population. All ducks, geese, and chickens in the city were killed. Fortunately it appears the H5N1 subtype lacks the ability to transmit itself through the air from one human host to the next potential victim."
"On the surface, HK97 shows the hallmarks of what might be described as a "near miss" for our species. In other words, a biological catastrophe. Or it could be a false alarm. It's too early to say. Either way, it's hard to argue that we didn't just receive a wake-up call of sorts. Maybe what happened in 1918 has today merely the substance of a tenuous memory, but it also marks a lesson that clearly would be dangerous to forget. On the scale of a human life span, pandemic influenza is a rarity, but no-one seriously doubts that it will be back in the 21rst Century."
"As Dr. Ian Webster, a specialist in virus strains reminds us, "All the genes of all influenza viruses in the world are being maintained in aquatic birds, and periodically they transmit to other species. The 1918 viruses are still being maintained in the bird reservoir. So even though these viruses are very ancient, they still have the capacity to evolve, to acquire new genes, new hosts. The potential is still there for the catastrophe of 1918 to happen again.
I'm afraid it is only a matter of time."
Air2gxs From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 8, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1660 times:
We're about due for another "thinning of the herd".
Unfortunately, the thinning will occur in areas of the world that can least afford (fiscally, economically, emotionally & physically) it to occur. The more modern nations of the world will be able to offer earlier warning and better supportive care. Our healthier, or at least more robust and consistent, diets will help all but our weakest fend off the virus. The 70% mortality rate will not hold up in the modern world.
Look at SARS a couple of years back. I don't know what the total number of deaths was, but under 1000 I seem to remember, originating in a highly populated, densely packed area. You would have expected many more deaths, but we didn't get them. Why? Good supportive care, early warning to the populace. Yes, there were also some Draconian restriction placed on the Chinese to prevent spread, but the outbreak was controlled.
Will the bird flu kill? Of course it will. It will kill the groups that are already succumb to the flu. The old, infants, infirm and those with compromised immune systems. Will there be others? Yes, but I wouldn't expect extremely high numbers.
AerorobNZ From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7576 posts, RR: 16
Reply 9, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 18 hours ago) and read 1657 times:
I'm not sure it will be the virus that wipes us all out, but yes these viruses are more of a threat to more people than terrorism, they are more unpredictable, they can move around unnoticed and dormant until the time is right, and the damage caused doesn't care if you are an American, Jew or Muslim - it will kill you anyway. I think we need a higher mortality rate than 70% however to wipe us all out. It could give it a good try at least though.
Canadian Boy is correct I believe...
Catatonic From United Kingdom, joined Mar 2004, 1155 posts, RR: 3
Reply 10, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1652 times:
Quoting Air2gxs (reply 8): Will the bird flu kill? Of course it will. It will kill the groups that are already succumb to the flu. The old, infants, infirm and those with compromised immune systems. Will there be others? Yes, but I wouldn't expect extremely high numbers.
Apparently the people that you mention are the very people that are spead from this devastating illness. People that die from this disease are fit, well, young and active.
AeroWesty From United States of America, joined Oct 2004, 20822 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1641 times:
Quoting B757300 (reply 5): There have been a few reports that it has already jumped person to person but that hasn't be confirmed yet.
I don't doubt influenza jumps from person to person. The OP stated you could derive it from having sex with chickens. Actually, you can't even get bird flu from eating the meat of infected poultry much less having sex with foul, unless, as I stated, they're covered in dried chicken dung from infected birds and you inhale it.
Canadi>nBoy From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 13, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1623 times:
And now, gentlemen, as darkness approaches us, as the sun sets on the horizon of our lives, as the dark, heavy storm clouds approach - the ominous sound of rumbling thunder in the distance, yet moving towards us, one and all, if I may, the final paragraph from
'The Masque Of The Red Death'
by Edgar Allan Poe
'And now was acknowledged the presence of the Red Death. He had come like a thief in the night. And one by one dropped the revellers in the blood-bedewed halls of their revel, and died each in the despairing posture of his fall. And the life of the ebony clock went out with that of the last of the gay. And the flames of the tripods expired. And Darkness and Decay and the Red Death held illimitable dominion over all.'
AerorobNZ From Rwanda, joined Feb 2001, 7576 posts, RR: 16
Reply 14, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 17 hours ago) and read 1613 times:
Quoting Air2gxs (reply 8): The more modern nations of the world will be able to offer earlier warning and better supportive care
1) There is no cure
2) It's the developed world that goes travelling all over the place by air conditioned plane. They will be the ones that spread it. Just because last time SARs did not spread too far from origin doesn't mean the same spread patterns will happen again with this strain of bird flu.
Quoting Air2gxs (reply 8): The 70% mortality rate will not hold up in the modern world.
possibly not, but keep in mind the projected Global mortality rate is 70%. The Third World places could in fact have a much higher rate in those conditions, or from years of living in those kind of conditions they could be immune to it, and the succeptable ones are those of us that live in sterility and cleanliness in the 'first world'.
Man I love thinking we are all on the knife-edge of life....It makes it all so exciting.
LTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13419 posts, RR: 16
Reply 16, posted (10 years 2 months 3 weeks 5 days 16 hours ago) and read 1609 times:
What could be more destivating than such a super flu itself, is the economic damage it can cause not only in the countries directly having the highest rates of infection and possible deaths, but around the world, as we saw with the SARS epedemic. With the SARS epedemic, we saw only 1000 reported deaths, although it was probably a lot higher in places like in the People's Rep. of China. From SARS, there were huge affects on trade, tourism, airlines, manufacturing in not only Hong Kong and PRC, but throughout Asia and the world. Past epedimics also had huge tolls on the economies of the world directly and indirectly affected by the infections of humans. Let us also not forget the huge worldwide human and economic toll from other infectious diseases, like AIDS.