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China Passes Anti-secession Bill Against Taiwan  
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1549 times:

The rubberstamp parliament of China passed an anti-secession bill, which allows and mandates the use of military force to bring independed-minded provinves in line.
http://66.194.40.250/static/dav/2005...ped/kelvin.king.lee.babble.on.html
http://www.alertnet.org/thenews/newsdesk/PEK317944.htm

This includes Taiwan, which during the 20th century only has been governed from mainlan China for a handfull of years (for the rest of the time it was either a Japanese colony or defacto independend).

Over the last 20 years, Taiwan developed not only into a major economic force, but also became increasingly democratic. Taiwan is independend except for a formal declaration of independence.
At the same time China´s military are changing from a national defense force to a power projection force, complete with submarines and aircraft carriers and is becoming openly aggresive (like Chinese nuclear submarines probing Japanese waters). Concerning this I also blame the European governments (including the one of my own country) for a short sighted policy of allowing arms sales to China to keep domestic unemployment down.
As long as mainland China is not a democracy and as long as Chinese politicians see themselves on a historical mission for recreating the old Chinese empire I don´t see why we shouldn´t support Taiwan.
The current gridlock of the US in the Middle East is probably closely watched in Beijing and considered a weakness of the West, as are the refusal to deal with North Korea.

Jan

42 replies: All unread, showing first 25:
 
User currently offlineDl757Md From United States of America, joined May 2004, 1562 posts, RR: 16
Reply 1, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1536 times:

Quoting MD11Engineer (Thread starter):
As long as mainland China is not a democracy and as long as Chinese politicians see themselves on a historical mission for recreating the old Chinese empire I don´t see why we shouldn´t support Taiwan.

The only reason I can think of not to support Taiwan is that it could very easily turn into WWIII. This isn't Iraq we're talking about. The aggressiveness that you pointed out is disturbing. It could be showboating to discourage any Allied attempt at interfering with China's repatriation of Taiwan. I seriously doubt though that China would back down if a standoff or a shooting war started over it.

Dl757Md



757 Most beautiful airliner in the sky!
User currently offlineSpaceman From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 534 posts, RR: 0
Reply 2, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1533 times:

Good, but China doesn't have any aircraft carriers.

User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 3, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1533 times:

Currently China is also claiming the Spratley Islands and another group of islands in the South China sea (also claimed by Vietnam, the Philippines and Malaysia, even though China is the most distant contestant) and a group of uninhabited islands off southern Japan. In the case of the Spratley islands, they already built a military base there, even though UN doesn´t accept it as Chinese property, and uses military force to prevent access to anybody else, though several other claimant nations have built up bases of their own.
http://www.premier-net.com/INEP/s/SpratleyIslands.html

Jan

Edit: Added link

[Edited 2005-03-14 03:18:13]

User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 4, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1527 times:

Spaceman,

I stand corrected. While China had plans to obtain aircraft carriers in the past, it seems that for the moment these plans have been shelved, maybe in favour of a nuclear submarine fleet?
http://www.sinodefence.com/navy/surface/aircraftcarrier.asp

Jan


User currently offlineSpaceman From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 534 posts, RR: 0
Reply 5, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 17 hours ago) and read 1524 times:

Yes, that is correct. China actually has little need for an aircraft carrier fleet.

User currently offlineFlybyguy From United States of America, joined Jun 2004, 1801 posts, RR: 1
Reply 6, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 10 hours ago) and read 1471 times:

When Taiwan becomes a dominion of China, the west will do nothing. Isn't 80% of America's consumer manufacturing done overseas? With a majority of that being in China? Economic sanctions will cripple our economies. If we show force, they'll nuke us. If we hold political sanctions then we are fools because most industrialized nations in the world don't even have formal relations with Taiwan anyway.

The fact of the matter is that the Taiwan issue is a win win situation for China. Firstly, they will show their military might in influencing world affairs, secondly they can show that they don't need the rest of the world to survive and grow. Those who align with China after the Taiwanese domination will benefit greatly. I hope America will be one of those countries.



"Are you a pretender... or a thoroughbred?!" - Professor Matt Miller
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 7, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 9 hours ago) and read 1459 times:

Quoting Flybyguy (Reply 6):
Those who align with China after the Taiwanese domination will benefit greatly. I hope America will be one of those countries.

Great, there goes Wilson´s selfdetermination of the peoples. A democratic country is being sacrificed for business.

Jan


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16282 posts, RR: 56
Reply 8, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1450 times:

Taiwan should declare independence NOW. China remains relatively weaker militarily (despite sheer volume of arms) and technologically behind, but it is catching up.

China will also not risk a war with Taiwan prior to the 2008 Olympics which is meant to be China's coming out party.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 9, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1450 times:

Quoting Yyz717 (Reply 8):
Taiwan should declare independence NOW.

Agreed.

I think China's passing of this Bill is simply posturing. World opinion of China would fall greatly if they imposed a military solution to Taiwan's declaration of independence.

I'm quite sure the entire "free" world would impose a sanction of some sort should China decide to intervene with Taiwans freedom movement.


User currently offlineBanco From United Kingdom, joined Oct 2001, 14752 posts, RR: 53
Reply 10, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1449 times:

What would the US's response be if China really did start posturing aggressively? The US has given qualified support to Taiwan in the past, but would it go all the way to defend them if push came to shove?

No agenda behind that question, I'm curious!



She's as nervous as a very small nun at a penguin shoot.
User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 11, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1448 times:

Here is another article with a comment from Japan´s government. If China keeps on pushing, it could become nasty in this region...

http://news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=stor...0314/ap_on_re_as/china_legislature

Jan


User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 12, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 7 hours ago) and read 1446 times:

Quoting Banco (Reply 10):
What would the US's response be if China really did start posturing aggressively?

Haven't got a clue, really. It's quite obvious what ever would happen must be diplomatic, force on force would be fruitless . . . since the US military is strapped to the nines in the Middle East thanks to the short sighted budget cutting fools in the 1990s. . . . and unecessary. Since the US is not the only country with a Dog in the Hunt - meaning we aren't the only importers of Chinese made goods - diplomatic pressures would probably work.

But it's anyones guess.


User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 13, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1437 times:

Actually, I think it could end up a bit like Pearl Harbour for the Japanese.
Back in 1935 Japan cut herself a big slice out of Northern China, which was in a civil war back then. Then in 1937 Japan started to expand towards the rest of China. Protests by the US and other western powers didn´t help, so the US, being Japan´s main supplier decided to cut off the supply of oil and steel in 1941, on which Japan was totally dependend to fight the war in China. Japan doesn´t want to let go of China due to loss of face involved and decides to annect most of southeast Asia, especially the oil fields in Indonesia (at this time Dutch East India) and the rubber plantations in Malaya (a British colony). To get access to southeast Asia, Japan has to get control over the Philippines as well, at this time an American colony. Japan attacks Pearl Harbour to take out the US Pacific fleet and hoirs later the Philippines.
All of it happened against the advice of senior Japanese naval commanders, especially Admiral Yamamoto, who, having gone to college in the US, considered such a move suicidical, but the hardliners around General Tojo pressed on, because they were too embarrased to withdraw from China, which by then they knew they couldn´t hold. The Japanese Army was not equiped and trained to fight a guerilla war, which the Chinese, especially Mao Zedong´s communists were specialised in. Add to this a feeling of superiority over their Asian neighbours plus massacres, and despite their propaganda of a Asia co-prosperity sphere, nobody believed them.

I think getting control over Taiwan is a similar matter of face loss to the Beijing government. The old generation of leaders around Deng Xiaopeng had their reputation of having fought in the civil war and revolution, but the new generation are all apparatchiks, pure technocrats. And they want their names entered into the history books, just like the older generation did. It is the last leftover of the civil war, which the founding generation around Mao didn´t succeed in. It might take quite a bit of pressure to get the Beijing government to accept an independence for Taiwan, if the Taiwanese population decides so.

Jan

Jan


User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 14, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1433 times:

Quoting MD11Engineer (Reply 13):
And they want their names entered into the history books, just like the older generation did.

One would assume these gents would want their names entered in the History books in a positive manner however. Invading Taiwan, or causing a war in the East China Sea over an island, that all things considered, is small potatoes in the big China scheme of things, doesn't seem to make sense - if the only reason is to save face and get your name in the books.

I don't dispute the theory, just find it bizarre - so bizarre in fact, you're probably right.


User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 15, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1427 times:

SgtMaj,

I just read an interesting book about Japan in WW2 "Japan at War, an oral history", by Haruko Taya Cook and Theodore F. Cook. It is a collection of interviews with Japanese of the WW2 generation, from housewife to soldier, from factory worker to communist opposition member, school girl to war criminal and it shows the homefront side of Japan during WW2.
The brass got themselves stuck in the swamp of China, like the monkey, that got a nut in it´s hand and got itself trapped in a hole in a wall, it would be free if it would let go of the nut, but it can´t let go because of the nut.
The generals couldn´t leave China without being considered failures at home. They swallowed a piece that was too big for them, but retreating would have exposed all the propaganda published at home about a victorious Japanese military as a lie.
My girlfriend is of Filipino-Chinese extraction and I think I´ve learned a bit about the idea about loosing face by getting involved with her culture.
Once they have committed themselves to something, it is almost impossible for them to find an honourable way of backing off.

Jan


User currently offlineANCFlyer From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 16, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days 6 hours ago) and read 1428 times:

Jan, My first wife (RIP) was Japanese. Her parents, more so her grandparents, were extremely concious about "face" and "honor". There will be no easy way to affect the removal of the Chinese from Taiwan if it comes to that.

Fortunately, as I mentioned, this bill that was passed I believe to be simple posturing. The Chinese have been playing this Taiwanese game for a long time. I have to think if they were extremely serious about taking Taiwan back into the fold, they'd have perhaps made their move already. Afterall, the US and other countries that have sided with Taiwan, aren't prepared to defend Taiwan militarily - regardless of our own posturing in that direction. It's like the "Who's got the Biggest Dick" contest that George Carlin uses in one of his comedy routines. As long as no one calls the others bluff, we're quite happy with the game.


User currently offlineSpaceman From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 534 posts, RR: 0
Reply 17, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1391 times:

With this bill, China has made clear its intention and will. That is they will defend Taiwan territory as their territory integrity and sovereignty. Not even 2008 Olympics is going to stop them as they have said so.

User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 18, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 6 days ago) and read 1387 times:

This is exactly what I suspect. With this law the Chinese government openly committed themselves. If Taiwan declares independence now and the PRC doesn´t react, the government members will be seen as paper tigers by their own population, and don´t forget, there are other regions in China looking for independence too.

Jan


User currently offlineYyz717 From Canada, joined Sep 2001, 16282 posts, RR: 56
Reply 19, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 1385 times:

Taiwan is so heavily defended now that China does not have the power to over-run it. They could heavily damage Taiwan, but the world would be outraged. Taiwan would also hit back hard in self-defense. China would lose the 2008 games and their economy would sink as foreign investment flees.

However, in 10-20 years China may have the military strength to take on take on Taiwan.

Taiwan should declare independence now. China would do alot of sabre rattling, perhaps blockade the island, perhaps invade Keh-moi (small Taiwanese islands near China - spelling?) but would fall short of a full invasion. A UN inspired peace initiative would then require China to accept Taiwan's independence.



Panam, TWA, Ansett, Eastern.......AC next? Might be good for Canada.
User currently offlineJaysit From , joined Dec 1969, posts, RR:
Reply 20, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 1378 times:

This seems like saber rattling just to test out global responses.

Its just one big Chinese beta test of gauging China's power beyond its own sphere of dominance.


User currently offlineMD11Engineer From Germany, joined Oct 2003, 14026 posts, RR: 62
Reply 21, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 1374 times:

AFAIK, while most "normal"Taiwanese support independence, many Taiwanese business people, who in the past invested heavily into the PRC are afraid to loose their money if Taiwan declares her independence.

Jan


User currently offlineSpaceman From United States of America, joined Jul 2000, 534 posts, RR: 0
Reply 22, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 23 hours ago) and read 1367 times:

It would be very unwise if Taiwan actually declared independence right now.

User currently offlineLTBEWR From United States of America, joined Jan 2004, 13116 posts, RR: 12
Reply 23, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1362 times:

The tortoured relationship between Taiwan and the PRC goes back to the late 1940's and the Communist takeover of mainland China. Many of the non-communist Chinese led by Chang Kai-chek were forced to exile themselves and many of them ended up on Taiwan. Until the early 1970's this exile government, and in effect a dictatorship, claimed and was recognized in the UN as the only government of mainland China. While there was religious freedom and the rule of law as to business, there was strict anti-Communist government policy, including strict censorship.
In the early 1970's under pressure from many western counries, including the USA (under President Nixon), The UN decided, in one of it's most shameful acts, that the only recognized government of China is the Communist PRC government and the representation of China was changed from the Taiwan government to Peking. The USA and many western countries continued, even today, to recoginse Taiwan as a seperate political state, but for certain diplomatic recognition. In part this USA support for Taiwan grew out of our anti-communist policy.
Eventually Taiwan developed in the 1980's and 1990's their own representative democracy, and a very independent and strong economy. While far from perfect (there is some exploitation of imported low level workers), Taiwan became a leader in high-tech, becoming a leading source for the computer industry, especially in laptops. The tallest building in the world is in Taipai, Taiwan. The people of Taiwan have an excellent standard of living, they recognise the rule of law and they don't have a culture that encourages the abortion or death of female babies, unlike the PRC. In the last several years, and especially in the last very disputed Taiwan election, there was a very close race between the party that advocates independence and one that wants to keep the unique situation with the Mainland government.
Right now the PRC is scared of Taiwan, but they also need them for the massive investment monies and technology the PRC needs. Should Taiwan choose to go independent, I would expect the PRC would be vicous about taking them over. It would also be a horrendous problem for the western world, especially with trade with the USA and other countries. It to me would be like when Saddam Hussain took over Kuwait years ago.


User currently offlineDL021 From United States of America, joined May 2004, 11447 posts, RR: 75
Reply 24, posted (9 years 6 months 1 week 5 days 22 hours ago) and read 1358 times:
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Coming in to this late, but the problems presented to the PRC in invading the ROC are not the least that a couple of years ago a reporter asked the President whether he would defend Taiwan if they were attacked and he automatically said yes. The Red Chinese do not forget this stuff.

It would cost the PRC an incredible amount of money, manpower and good will if they invaded Taiwan causing all that disruption to the trade and investment upon which they rely. The cost in equipment alone would be staggering, but the other costs would be worse.

The Anti-Secession bill is one that the PRC wants to use to force change over the long term. THey have always taken the long view and think in terms of decades and centuries whereas they think that westerners think in terms of months and years, and they figure that eventually they will get the ROC to reunify with them.

WHat I truly think is that internal changes will force the government of the PRC to eventually change as the burgeoning capitalism continues to expand and the middle class grows. As more people demand more freedom the central government will lose more power over the coming years and decades and be forced to liberalize and democratize or lose power completely. This trend has been speeding up since the last of the Long Marchers have died off, and the civilians in government chafe already at the Generals in charge of the industries who need the civilians to help them run things.

Taiwan needs to continue to be supported by us, as the agreements stated they would. The US always said that they would support the ROC and provide them with the means to defend themselves as well as trade with them. We should support the Republic, even if we won't call them that.



Is my Pan Am ticket to the moon still good?
25 WN700Driver : The fact of the matter is that the Taiwan issue is a win win situation for China. Firstly, they will show their military might in influencing world af
26 Christa : China is starting to worry me and more. As the days pass you see more headlines on the news about increased wealth for China. Most cheap goods are man
27 DL021 : I would agree except that basic economics and human nature will see the Chinese government busily attempting to appease its people as they make more a
28 L.1011 : I agree with the assessment that the ROC should declare independence now. The PRC basically has its hands tied. As it attempts to establish itself as
29 Bill142 : I hightly doubt it. As far as I know the US is pro Taiwan and will more then likley stay that way. From what I've heard the US is required to help Ta
30 JetsGo : Correct me if I am wrong, but this does not appear to be a "GWB war." This seems more like a PRC-ROC war? Chris
31 MD11Engineer : Bill, Excuse me, but if you quote somebody I quoted, please do so directly. This was NOT my opinion, but Flybyguy´s opinion (Reply #6) Jan.
32 Luisde8cd : Sure, UN military action against China approved by the Security Council. Oh wait... China has veto power in the Security Council! dreamworld dude.
33 MD11Engineer : Well, it happened once during the Korean conflict in 1949, that a military UN mission was started AGAINST Russian veto (China at this time was represe
34 Luisde8cd : Do you know exactly why the UN force in Korea was approved? When North Korea invaded the South, the Soviet Union was boycotting the UN security counc
35 Christa : That I believe may would have been the case, however that is not what the Koreans in the south wanted as well as the Western allies. China does not d
36 JGPH1A : Why is communism "the enemy" ? Aggressive nationalist expansionism is nothing to do with communism and is far more of a threat. Your statement is par
37 MD11Engineer : This is why IMO the veto right for the 5 permanent members of the UN SC is obsolete. Lately it has been mainly used to enforce domestic issues for som
38 Jaysit : That's one thing you can always trust Dedicated Communists to do. Know nothing about how money really works. Except that the so-called dedicated commu
39 DL021 : I think that someone beat me to it but the Soviets abstained from this vote and learned to not do that anymore. As far as your feelings on the UN Per
40 Christa : I am against the idea of Communism and also the principles that the Chinese government have towards issues. China has made it clear that they do not
41 MD11Engineer : Luis and Ian, I stand corrected on the Korean issue. Concerning China being communist, IMO the nomenklatura moved away from communism and socialism l
42 Wn700driver : Except that the so-called dedicated communists in the PRC now are all capitalists now. You don't create an economy with a 10% growth rate by being a f
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